In the halls of the Bayerischer Hof last month, I kept hearing the same question: what is the “elephant in the room” at the Munich Security Conference? To me, the answer was clear: we are still defining security through a narrow, 20th-century lens of military hardware while the planet literally burns around us. If we don’t recognize the climate crisis as the ultimate security risk in 2026, we ignore a critical front. A true rules-based order is grounded in the laws of physics and biology. If we lose the Arctic, the Amazon Rainforest, or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), no amount of guns or bombs will restore the equilibrium we depend on.
The 21st-century security map is being redrawn at a frantic pace, yet the logic guiding it remains eerily obsolete. From the oil fields of Venezuela to the Arctic, we are witnessing a resurgence of resource colonialism – a 19th-century worldview masquerading as modern strategy. Having grown up in Denmark and lived in Greenland on and off, I find it particularly painful to see my home region discussed as a real-estate portfolio to be stripped by self-entitled business geniuses. When we treat Indigenous homelands as mineral prizes, we replicate the very colonial friction that has fueled centuries of conflict. It’s a self-defeating loop; by treating sovereign lands as assets to be ransacked, we manufacture the exact inequality and displacement that paved the way for our current crises, sowing the seeds of the next generation of security threats. A victory gained by poisoning water tables or displacing communities is hollow and temporary. True security recognizes that sovereignty is not for sale.
What, then, should the guiding principles of a future security strategy look like as Europe seeks to reclaim its own agency? As my colleague Martin Kaiser, Executive Director of Greenpeace Germany recently argued, we must move beyond the narrow economic liberalism of previous decades toward a resilient union of values. If Europe is to define its own future, it must first break the cycle of dependency that has left its sovereignty so fragile.
The war in Ukraine exposed the fossil fuel war economy for what it is. As Greenpeace’s recent groundbreaking report on Russia shows, Putin’s regime runs on a “troika” of extractivism, authoritarianism, and war. After years of bankrolling his war, Europe has finally implemented a long-overdue ban on Russian gas. However, the frantic pivot to American liquefied fossil gas (LNG) is a high-stakes gamble with a poor hand.
By 2025, the U.S. already provided 27% of EU gas imports; this share could grow to 40% by 2030. Since 2022, EU companies have signed an estimated €200 billion in U.S. LNG contracts, with even more to come, and many extending far beyond the 2035 phase-out deadline required to avoid climate breakdown.
That’s not energy security, and certainly not energy sovereignty. Compounding this, Europe is rushing into a deregulation blind alley. Gutting the Green Deal under the guise of “competitiveness” is a strategic error – trading long-term resilience for a short-term illusion of ease.
The escalating conflict surrounding Iran further proves how susceptible fossil dependency economies are to disruption. To achieve true stability, Europe must ensure that no president or dictator – whether in Moscow or Mar-a-Lago – can turn off the continent’s lights. True strategic autonomy requires a fully renewable energy system that is decentralized, difficult to weaponize, and requires no gunboat diplomacy to secure.
The current authoritarian backlash is a panic response of a dying economic system. The fossil era is ending, and its profiteers know it. The good news is that despite being dismissed loudly as a cul-de-sac by those desperate to trap us in a fossil-fueled past, the energy transition is happening quietly and stubbornly. The shift to renewables is moving forward according to the logic of the market, proving that it is not a luxury for stable times but the very foundation of true resilience. The European Union has the chance to create a future that helps save the planet and enables progress, security, and justice. The shadow fossil fuel wars casts is dark, yes – but it only makes the light we can ignite together shine all the brighter.
Author: Mads Christensen is the Executive Director of Greenpeace International.
Russland - Venezuela - Taiwan - Grönland: Diese Stichworte reichen, um deutlich zu machen, dass sich die Entscheidungsgrundlagen für alle Sicherheitsstrategen fundamental ändern. Was sind die Leitlinien für eine künftige Sicherheitsstrategie? Worauf müssen wir uns geopolitisch einstellen? Und welche Rolle spielen Innovation, Industrie, Resilienz und Bündnisse dabei?
