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Opinion
Last update: March 30, 2023

'If the European elections were on Sunday …'

By Manuel Müller
Manuel Müller creates the seat projection for the European election. (Eeva Anundi / Finnish Institute of International Affairs)
Ahead of the European elections in May 2024, Table.Media will publish a projection on the composition of the next European Parliament about every six weeks from now on. Political scientist Manuel Müller will create it, using the results of opinion polls from 27 member states.
Around fourteen months before the 2024 European elections, the polls are showing an exciting race. According to a current projection, the Christian Democrat-conservative European People's Party (EPP) would currently only have 162 MEPs and would thus fall significantly below its level of 176 seats in the current Parliament. The Social Democratic Group (S&D) would also lose seats, but to a lesser extent: Instead of 144, it would now have 137 seats. If this remains the case, or if the Social Democrats make up even more ground, it could be one of the closest European elections in recent decades.
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