Geopolitics: Are Chinese peacekeepers in Ukraine realistic, Ms. Ogryzko?

The people of Ukraine must be in shock after everything that has happened in recent weeks.

It was, of course, a shock for everyone, not only for the Ukrainians but also for the Europeans and the whole world. However, I think the Ukrainian society and the Ukrainian administration still show a lot of resolution and strength. Compared to the start of the war, Ukrainians are now much stronger and very agile in adapting to the new geopolitical realities and shifts.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will visit Washington this Friday to sign the minerals deal. After long negotiations, the agreement now contains the vague wording that the USA "supports Ukraine's efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace." What do you make of this?

The fact that safety guarantees are mentioned, even if only in a vague sentence, is already a great success. They were not mentioned in the previous versions. The mere fact that the deal is made and that the Americans would participate in these processes of obtaining minerals in Ukraine is already a security guarantee in itself. And it is a testimony to the Ukrainian government's negotiating skills vis-à-vis Trump. But it is also a win for Trump because he can sell himself as a quick dealmaker, something he's been trying to demonstrate for a long time now. And that's why, overall, I think this is a win-win situation for both.

By signing the deal, the Ukrainian government agrees to hand over half its future revenues from extracted raw materials. Some say this amount will not be particularly large, as all the minerals that can be extracted at a profit have already been mined. Is that true?

There is a lot of speculation about this. The geological data dates back to the Soviet era. New studies need to be conducted to find exactly where rare earths and critical minerals are located. There also needs to be documentation of the Donbas because most of these minerals are located in areas that are not currently under the sovereignty of Ukraine. That's why it's a bit difficult to really predict what minerals and what quantities we're actually talking about

The Chinese government has repeatedly tried to play the role of a neutral peacekeeping power despite its massive support for Putin. Against this background, would the Ukrainians welcome a Chinese contribution to a possible post-war settlement?

I believe that the whole premise of the Chinese being a neutral peacemaker throughout the war is wrong. I think it is clear as day that the Chinese have chosen a side, that of Russia. They support them militarily, although they officially deny this. And economically, take the energy sector, for example. All of these revenues are the primary source of the financing of the illegal war against Ukraine. Therefore, China cannot be seen as a neutral mediator. Of course, the Ukrainians would like China to influence Russia because we know who the bigger brother is. And that is definitely China. China could influence how things develop both on the battlefield and in geopolitics in a matter of days by pressuring Russia to end the war. Unfortunately, we haven't seen that for three years. Therefore, there is little reason to hope that China's strategy will change.

What do you think of the idea of Chinese peacekeepers?

That would be even more unrealistic than a role in a peace agreement.

Could China play a role in rebuilding Ukraine?

How can we expect the country that sided with the other side to be invited to participate in post-war rebuilding? I do believe it's only fair to give certain preferences to, first and foremost, our European allies and then also the United States. This is also part of the critical minerals deal. The main contributors to the reconstruction should only be the countries that supported Ukraine during the war. Australia, Japan and other countries also helped Ukraine in those very difficult times. I do not think that the Chinese should be given the same treatment.

What are your expectations of the EU and the new German government?

Europe must not only show with words but also with actions that it accepts the changed geopolitical situation. The continent's security is the sole responsibility of the European states. That doesn't just mean higher defense spending and a radical increase in the defense and industrial complex. We need to reassess what capabilities we lack. And close this gap quickly if the USA really does withdraw. Europe must develop a new deterrence strategy against Russia, and Ukraine would play a leading role. This includes European troops and significantly increased military support for Ukraine.

What else?

European countries must be involved in a possible peace process. This war in Ukraine is taking place on European soil, after all. Europeans must agree that they need a high-level negotiator who represents the collective voice of the EU or at least the coalition of the willing.

Who are you hoping for in particular?

We are placing our hopes on the United Kingdom, the Baltic States, which have provided so much support to Ukraine, and France, which is trying to take a leading role in reassessing Europe's strategic autonomy. But also on the new German government, which will be less driven by self-imposed red lines but will take decisive action to become a leading member of the coalition of the willing, ready to ensure the security of their own continent.

Lesia Ogryzko is a Visiting Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She is the director of the Ukrainian think tank Sahaidachnyi Security Center.