'Views in the Global South are much more varied'

Over the past few decades, the number of surveys measuring citizens' sentiments towards China worldwide has exploded. You and your team have compiled 2,500 survey results from 160 countries into a single data set – including an interactive map that is fun to play with. At first glance, the rift between a Global North that perceives China much more negatively than the Global South is striking – but a closer look reveals a much more nuanced picture.

That's right – the negativity in the Global North is very prevalent, and it's true the Global South in aggregate leans positive, but in the Global South, the exceptions are so great that they really cut against the idea that the Global South's view of China can be characterized in any general way. It would be more accurate to say views in the Global North tend to be negative, while views in the Global South are much more varied.

China is particularly popular in Russia, Pakistan and many Central Asian countries, the Middle East and Africa. You write that China is not only appreciated by African elites, but also enjoys great popularity among African citizens. Why is that?

It's a good question and one that goes beyond what we can really know from this kind of quantitative data. But my speculation is that the positive views of China in most parts of Africa reflect a sense that China has shown the way in terms of development and that it brings development and economic opportunities to the places it is present in. Chinese companies and finance have strong presences in various places that other countries' development agencies and commercial companies have largely avoided. So, that generates a sense that China is showing up and doing things where others aren't.

Chinese media companies are highly active on the African continent. China also invites many journalists from all over the world to China and offers training programs. Could that also play a role?

That's one possible interpretation, but I think the jury is out on whether that's the case. The GPOC data show views of China across the African continent staying solidly positive over time. The sorts of economic factors I mentioned above could potentially explain those consistent positive results, rather than the CCP's foreign-directed media and propaganda drive. At the same time, though, the Chinese media's expansion may have helped prevent a steeper decline in African perceptions of China over the pandemic.

Surprisingly, the mass internment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang has not affected sentiment toward China in most Muslim countries – with some notable exceptions, such as Turkey and Palestine.

This has been a cause of bewilderment to many in the West – why aren't Muslim-majority countries more outraged about China's extreme repression of Islamic religious practice there? Many of these countries' leaders see a lot to gain from good relations with China, and therefore have motivations to offer praise for China's repressive policies, for instance, describing them as "achievements" in counter-terrorism. In addition, by contrast with the African example we've just discussed, I think you can make a stronger case that propaganda, or at least narratives, may have been effective on the Xinjiang crisis – not in boosting China's image, but in countering the effects of negative information from other media sources such as Al Jazeera. I tend to see those possible propaganda effects as a complement to the local leaders, though. If state leaders in the Middle East were roundly condemning China's atrocities against Muslims in Xinjiang, I doubt the CCP's propaganda organs would be able to prevent a deterioration in China's image.

Another interesting development is that China's popularity in Iran has suffered greatly. Why?

This is a question for experts on Iran and its domestic politics. My guess is that it may concern the COVID pandemic – Iran was one of the earliest countries to which the virus spread. So that may have harmed its image. It also appears that China's prominent role in brokering the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia has failed to win China popularity among the public in Iran.

The Covid pandemic has had a very different impact on China's image in different parts of the world. Its popularity hasn't really waned in Africa, but in South America, it has fallen sharply. Can you explain why?

I think it reflects a battle of narratives. From my understanding, the Chinese state media haven't made anywhere near as much headway in Latin America as they have in Africa. So Latin Americans, not surprisingly, seem to have bought into the idea of blaming China for the pandemic, whereas many African audiences wouldn't have been exposed to such negative information.

Observers might assume that the popularity or unpopularity of the USA and China are connected – that where the popularity of the USA declines, that of China increases. Do you see such an effect?

I think they're linked in some places, but mostly decoupled. It's often said that most of the world's countries want to avoid choosing between the US and China. They want to get benefits from both. The Sinophone Borderlands survey, one of the key projects that Global Public Opinion on China draws data together from, has found that across the Global South, both the US and China tend to be viewed positively.

Andrew Chubb is Foreign Policy and National Security Fellow at the China Center of the Asia Society Policy Institute. He is also a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Politics, Philosophy and Religion at Lancaster University.