Geopolitics: 'China is already a space superpower'

A few years ago, the Chinese leadership set itself the goal of becoming the dominant global space power in the long term. What is China's vision for its space program?

Space is the perfect answer to many of China's strategic goals: From a technological perspective, it offers the opportunity to invest heavily in a promising, albeit cost-intensive, sector. From a political perspective, it conveys to its public opinion a positive image of the successes and milestones China has achieved in recent years and months. Especially in the area of space, China is signaling to the world that it is capable of innovating and catching up with the US technologically. While the US encounters obstacles in keeping its leadership position and alienated some of its allies, China has successfully gained the support of many countries in the Global South. And where the US has always demonstrated an ambition for space dominance, space is seen by China as a key component of its military strategy and enabler of its strategic objectives.

Observers say that China has not yet had a "Sputnik moment." What would be such a moment for China? What milestone would be crucial?

The Sputnik moment should be understood as a signal of technological and capability breakthrough. China has successfully landed a rover on the far side of the Moon in January 2019 – something no one has ever done before. But a truly powerful signal would be for it to become the first country to successfully return of rock samples from Mars. However, the timeframe for this is still far away. Space travel requires a lot of time and often carries a certain amount of risks. China plans to send a rover to Mars in 2028 and bring back the samples in 2031, while the Euro-American mission is eyeing 2033, albeit with much political uncertainty. If successful, it would truly be a wake-up call for other nations. Another important milestone could be the creation of a navigation satellite network to compete with Starlink.

Many nations have space programs, including Russia and India. Europe is also active. Why is China so focused on competing with the US?

There are several reasons for this. First, China and the US are the only two countries that give — and can give — space such a strong military dimension. The US has its Space Force, and China has its Military Aerospace Force. Europe and other nations have space programs, but they do not have such a strong military dimension and, in any case, are not on the same scale. Second, the Chinese space market is comparable to the US in terms of size and dynamism. While China has many state-owned companies, it also has a growing private sector.

What role does the Chinese military play in space?

The military plays a major and ever more assertive role. There is much speculation about China's ability to conduct military operations in space. But in its broader strategy to compete with the US, a key inflection point was 2007, when China conducted a kinetic anti-satellite.

At that time, China launched the decommissioned Fengyun-1C weather satellite from Earth's surface using a medium-range missile for test purposes. This made headlines because it had never happened before.

Such a move caused worldwide stun and similar actions were undertaken since then by the United States, India or Russia. In the field of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, China has also deployed increasingly sophisticated optical and radar satellites. These satellites can now be used to precisely coordinate military operations, while they also benefit from the BeiDou navigation system. A recently launched Chinese military satellite has a resolution of 2.5 meters, meaning it can detect warships or aircraft. These developments significantly expand military capabilities, not to mention China's progress in secure communications, navigation, early warning systems for missile detection, on-orbit servicing or co-orbital maneuvering.

What is China's commercial approach to space?

China is increasingly focusing on commercial applications. Satellite communications are being integrated into smartphones from Oppo, Xiaomi, and Huawei. Satellite navigation also plays a role in electric mobility: BYD has been collaborating with China Telecom since April 2024, for instance. In addition, there are plans to involve private space companies more closely in lunar missions, similar to what NASA does with SpaceX. Elon Musk is portrayed in the Chinese press as a positive example of entrepreneurial success in this field – though critics have recently gained ground to condemn his overreaching political power and conflicts of interests.

China is increasingly seeking partners for its space programs, including Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Thailand. What is the goal of these collaborations with other countries?

Space collaboration is another card China wants to add to its soft power gameplay. The cooperation with Argentina has geopolitical and geographical reasons, with a deep space station in Patagonia that offers China a strategic position with clear skies and low light pollution – something that wasn't always the case in China in the early 2010s. China also maintains close partnerships with Pakistan, which will soon have the privilege of sending the first foreign astronaut to the Chinese space station. Such collaborations generate sympathy and political support at low cost.

On the lunar station specifically, while the West is forming a closed bloc with the Artemis program, China is building relationships with countries that are less involved in Western space projects. Russian-Chinese cooperation remains particularly strong, especially regarding this International Lunar Research Station, which was announced in 2021. After a period of reluctance, cooperation has recently intensified again. China may have overtaken Russia as the second-largest spacefaring nation, but it continues to benefit from Russian technology. These successive partnerships with developing countries notably are therefore one brick after another of an overall strategy to create a diplomatic hub through lunar and scientific opportunities. As for the cooperation with Europe, it has strategically declined for obvious geopolitical reasons.

What is the biggest challenge for China in becoming a space superpower?

China already is and will remain a space superpower. US investments will likewise remain significant, especially looking at Elon Musk's current position. While China's private sector is innovative, its state-dominated structure could be a brake on innovation in the long term, though. Furthermore, India, the EU or Japan will remain relative competitors. China must manage to strike a balance between state and private actors. At the same time, whether Europe will seriously play a role in this competition remains to be seen. Space is expensive, and other priorities such as climate change or defense will inevitably take precedence.

Pierre Pinhas has been a project officer in the Asia program at the French think tank Institute Montaigne since February 2023. He curates the quarterly publication "China Trends," which, based on Chinese-language sources, attempts to understand China from geopolitical, economic, and energy policy perspectives, among others. He conducts research on strategic stockpiles and food security policies in European and Asian countries.