Taiwan: 'Quarantine is the most likely option'

Do you think the risk of war has increased?

Well, we don't see an imminent war. Could it happen by 2027? Possibly, but that depends heavily on how prepared we are – and how prepared our like-minded partners are. Given Xi Jinping's ambitions and his vision of rejuvenating the Chinese nation, Taiwan is probably just the first step in his plan to be perceived as a supreme leader. He has a similar mindset to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin. We firmly believe that we need to strengthen our national defense.

How great is the risk of a naval blockade or an inspection regime – measures to quarantine merchant vessels?

This is the most likely option, probably even more likely than an amphibious landing as it would cost less. Xi Jinping may consider that an amphibious invasion is a significant challenge for the People's Liberation Army and that a failed invasion could cost him power. A blockade or quarantine, on the other hand, could be repeatedly enforced. Should it fail, he would have a "face-saving" way out. The costs are not as high, and it requires less military capabilities. And they have started preparations for it. For example, they have included Coast Guard units in recent exercises.

Quarantine would mean inspecting ships and requiring permission for them to sail to Taiwan. How would Taiwan's government respond?

Quarantine is both easy and difficult for us to handle. Easy because we could counter the Chinese Coast Guard with ours. However, a naval-backed sea blockade would be more challenging. To break it, we would need frigates. Taiwan cannot meet this challenge alone. We need support from allies, Japan, the US and probably other countries that have an interest in keeping the Taiwan Strait open. That is what we are working on.

Taiwan is also preparing all of society to become more resilient. This includes communication, food, medical care and energy. We are working on decentralizing and diversifying our energy grid. I think we are a bit better prepared than we were before the Ukraine war.

A quarantine or blockade would bring both sides' coast guards and armed forces into potential conflict by raising the likelihood of miscalculations or provocations, right?

Yes, that is the danger. For Xi Jinping, a quarantine or blockade is a cost-effective way to achieve political goals, although it also carries the risk of escalation – even if he wants to avoid a full-blown war. The aim is to exert maximum pressure on Taiwan's population and leadership to see if they will surrender.

That is why Taiwan must have a strong consensus on preserving our democratic way of life. We need leaders who do not surrender easily. We are sure that no leader of the (ruling) Progressive Party DPP would give in, even if the pressure is high. I am less confident about other party leaders.

For example, if there were a Kuomintang president, it would probably be natural for him to surrender under pressure, negotiate and possibly support China's interests to end a blockade, and lead Taiwan on a path similar to Hong Kong. Taiwan could remain nominally sovereign, but under an arrangement that would limit our military and diplomacy.

In the event of a war, do you think the USA would support Taiwan with troops?

It appears to be in the national interest of the United States to help in some way, even if we are not sure exactly how. Sanctions or tariffs alone would certainly not be enough. China is preparing for the eventuality of facing sanctions or getting caught in a state of siege.

Donald Trump's first term in office has ushered in a new era. China has been recognized as a threat, and the administration has changed its China policy. However, this change was partly driven by mid-level officials, so it is hard to predict what Trump will do this time. He mentioned that Xi Jinping knows very well how "crazy" he is. But we are not sure and are worried about the development. China has built a formidable navy and air force. Their ability to execute an amphibious landing has increased significantly. That's why the US is of great importance to us.

You have been observing Chinese politics closely for many years. What shifts have you noticed in China's approach towards Taiwan?

The fundamental approach has not changed significantly. They continue to use the so-called "two-handed" policy, alternating between hard and soft approaches. For example, they carry out military operations and then Xi Jinping sends a conciliatory message aimed at the Taiwanese people. They are trying to divide the Taiwanese government and the general population.

Taiwan is increasingly becoming part of China's greater global ambitions. Despite the current economic slump, Xi Jinping remains willing to increase military spending, and the defense budget has again been increased this year.

Under Xi's leadership, China seems more determined and capable, although its economic strength is not as strong as it used to be. The best strategy for Taiwan is to buy time. We must use this time to improve our defense capabilities. China has effectively been converting its economic prosperity into military power, but as the economy slows, military resources may dwindle.

Is China trying to change the status quo in order to put pressure on the Taiwanese government?

Not just on the Taiwanese government. China is also trying to put pressure on the United States, Japan and even the Philippines. They are working towards gaining dominance within the first island chain. They have already achieved a certain degree of control, for example, in the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea. China has gained substantial control over the South China Sea without direct conflict. Its "below the threshold of war" tactic, which avoids open conflict while exerting pressure, is effective. It exploits people's fear of war and demonstrates military strength.

What tactic or strategy do you recommend for Taiwan?

Resilience is crucial; it is the foundation for all other measures. We are confident that we will not be forced to surrender through a blockade or quarantine. Secondly, we need to invest in our military capabilities. We need a broader social consensus that defense is essential for Taiwan's survival. We must ensure that our people understand the situation and do not perceive a highly dangerous situation as normal.

Chen Min-chi previously served as Taiwan's deputy minister of the Mainland Affairs Counciland security advisor to former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. He then headed the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), a think tank of the Ministry of Defense in Taipei. Today, Chen works as an advisor to the new government of President Lai Ching-te and as a professor at National Tsing Hua University.