Kaiser Kuo: Which experts we should really listen to

You are one of the most proficient China watchers in the USA and you also have many fans in Europe that read your blog and listen to your Sinica podcasts. Recently, you surprised your readers in a " Letter From Beijing " that you plan to return and spend at least six months per year in China after living in the USA since 2016. Why is that?

I'm going back for a month starting October 3rd, and then my wife and I are hoping to find a place to live. If all goes well, we'll be living in Beijing by next summer. Our kids are in college now, and we're alone in this big house. On my recent trip, my experience of being back in China was surprisingly positive. I hadn't expected to be quite so delighted!

Why were you so pleasantly surprised to be back?

Many people said Beijing had completely changed and wasn't fun anymore. Some gave the impression that anyone interesting had already left the city, but that wasn't true. There's still a very vibrant community, and many people felt free to speak their minds to me.

You said you started having "imposter syndrome" because you were talking about China without being there.

I still believe the view from across the ocean is very different from the view on the ground. You need both perspectives. Being in China all the time can make you lose sight of how things look from the outside, which is why I want to balance both. I've lived through equally repressive periods in Beijing, but there's still a lot to love about the place. It remains a fascinating subject to study up close.

What image of China do you want to convey?

I try to correct the Western media narrative where it gets things wrong, but I don't assume it's always wrong. There's a lot of valuable reporting coming out of China, but sometimes it needs to be balanced with other perspectives.

Debates in Germany and Europe continue about how we can acquire and communicate more competence on China. Do you have any suggestions?

First, we need to accept that not everyone can become an expert on China, especially not overnight. You can't expect that of government officials or business leaders. There's a lot of information out there about China, and we need to focus on sorting through it and identifying the voices worth listening to.

Who among the plethora of supposed experts and analysts should we listen to?

I propose five qualities to look for in an analyst. First, humility. China, especially at the highest levels, is very opaque. We can't know the mind of Xi Jinping, and we need to acknowledge our own ignorance about China. Most people don't understand much about Chinese history or the values that shape the way people think there. So, humility is key.

And what else?

Having a holistic view of China is essential as well. Look for analysts who don't focus narrowly on one area, like economics or national security, but approach China from multiple angles—its humanities, politics, society, demographics, and especially history. A multidisciplinary approach gives a fuller picture.

Do you have the impression that some experts take a very one-sided view of China, perhaps partly to push their own interests or prove their point?

Exactly, which brings me to the third quality: sensitivity to bias. We need to recognize that the news we're reading are structurally biased. It's not a deliberate plot to make China look bad, but the stories selected tend to be more extreme or sensational. Most of life is far more ordinary. This happens with Chinese news on the US too – they focus on school shootings or ethnic violence. We need to adjust for that bias when analyzing reports.

You have already mentioned twice how important it is to have a fundamental knowledge of Chinese history. Why is that?

Historical understanding is very important. Analysts don't need to know thousands of years of history in detail, but they should understand contingency's role in their own history and avoid Western-centric views, like believing history inevitably leads to liberal democratic capitalism. That's a biased perspective that distorts our understanding of China.

What's the fifth quality you propose for more China competence?

Cognitive empathy – the ability to put yourself in the shoes of Chinese people. Analysts should ask how our policies and rhetoric are perceived in China and how Chinese people see the world. If an analyst shows humility, a holistic view, sensitivity to bias, historical understanding, and cognitive empathy, they're worth listening to, even if their conclusions differ from mine.

How do you avoid the trap of repeating state narratives?

I'm careful to clarify when presenting the Chinese perspective, though it doesn't always work. In discussions between the US and China, for example, I often ask each side to articulate the other's viewpoint in good faith. This leads to more productive and civil conversations.

So what you're saying is that it's possible to be critical and keep an open mind?

So, what exactly is your plan in Beijing for your future as a China watcher?

I don't plan to do reporting or be a journalist, but I do want to talk to people, maybe even record podcasts –though likely with Americans outside of China. I'll be spending half the year outside of China, so it'll be easy to communicate with people there remotely. The main goal is to reconnect with Chinese society in a meaningful way. You just can't fully grasp what people think unless you're there, hearing conversations and having those late-night talks with friends over drinks. Plus, I genuinely enjoy being in China—the food, the ease of living, and traveling around make it a wonderful place to be.

Kaiser Kuo was born in the state of New York in 1966. His parents come from families who once fled to Taiwan as Guomindang supporters. He is now one of the most renowned China observers in the USA and co-founder of the Sinica podcast and the expert platform The China Project. Kuo previously worked for Baidu and Ogilvy. He was also the lead guitarist of the legendary Chinese heavy metal band Tang Dynasty.

I try to. Even when I find certain state narratives appalling – like Russia's in the Ukraine war – I still feel it's important to understand what Putin believes and why his message resonates with parts of the Russian population.