Ian Buruma: 'People realize that Pax Americana cannot last forever'

Mr. Buruma, in 2022, you wrote in the New York Times that Joe Biden represented the "setting sun of Pax Americana" and should make way for a younger Democrat. This idea seems to be fulfilled with the nomination of Kamala Harris.

Biden is a defender of the status quo: the US as the military protector of the democratic world, the importance of democratic institutions, free market economics, and so on. I support much of this myself, and don't believe Kamala Harris would be very different. But she is younger, more energetic, and a woman born from diverse ethnic parents. This makes her an exciting candidate, despite the fact that her policies are not so different from those of Joe Biden.

What would her election mean for the rise of China as a world power, and what would Trump's re-election mean?

I doubt whether she has thought much about China. A Trump administration would be more destabilizing, because of his total unpredictability. He likes the idea of making deals with dictators, but with him, everything is personal. If he felt that China was threatening his claims to being a tough guy, he could just as easily embark on a war.

What is the qualitative difference between Trump's fake news and Xi's one-sided propaganda spread through censorship filters – is one of them more effective in the long term?

The difference is that Trump still has to function in a democracy. His propaganda and lies can be challenged. Xi's propaganda cannot. It is hard to say which is more effective, because the two leaders operate in entirely different systems.

What role could the friendship between Russia and China, which is characterized by a certain opaqueness and mistrust, play in a possible end to the Pax Americana?

It's hard to say. China will dominate the relationship with Russia, which the Russians will find increasingly hard to bear. The one great interest they have in common is their enmity to the US. This scares other countries in Asia, even India. So, the effect of Sino-Russian aggression might be to actually strengthen Pax Americana because other Asian countries will seek American protection. Whether that would work depends, of course, on who is in the White House.

In your book "Year Zero: A History of 1945", you discuss the significance of the end of the Second World War and describe history as an interlude between great powers and alliances of convenience and circumstance. Can you imagine a new world order in which South Korea and Japan reunite with China, for example, after a rapid fall of Taiwan without resistance from the USA?

It is possible but not likely. The interests of Japan and South Korea are too different from those of China, and neither country, especially Japan, would wish to be dominated by China. It is more likely that Japan and South Korea would form an alliance with other countries in Asia to balance China. But this will not be easy. Japan would have to take a leadership role, which neither the Japanese nor other Asians would welcome yet. But perhaps an aggressive China and an unreliable US will force them into such a situation.

In "Wages Of Guilt," you compared the more or less fragile foundations of Germany and Japan's basic pacifist attitudes. Japan has now rearmed and Germany has also increased its defense budget given the Ukraine crisis. How do you assess these developments with regard to the self-definition of both countries after the Second World War?

There is no doubt that both countries are changing. There is less of an aversion to taking more responsibility for their own military security. This is partly because historical memories are fading. The shock of losing a catastrophic war is no longer felt as keenly as before. Guilt over the horrendous crimes committed by Japan and Germany doesn't impact politics in the same way it once did.

The other reason opinions on national defense are changing is that Russia and China are becoming more threatening. Finally, the fact that the Japanese and Germans can no longer take it for granted that the US will protect them is an added reason to take security seriously. Whether these changes are taking place fast enough to save Ukraine – and possibly Taiwan – remains unclear. There are still strong forces against Japan or Germany taking responsibility for collective security. This is what Sahra Wagenknecht and the AfD have in common, this and crude anti-Americanism. But the fact that more people in both countries are beginning to realize that Pax Americana cannot last forever is probably a good thing.

One of your books, "Bad Elements," deals with Chinese dissidents. We just had two cases in Germany where dissidents turned out to be spies for the Chinese government, and another one was exposed as a fraudster. Do you think the role of Chinese dissidents abroad has suffered and changed since Tiananmen? Can Hongkongers, now one of the biggest Chinese dissident diasporas abroad, still have some political influence?

The sad fact is that most dissidents abroad do not have much influence, either abroad or in the countries they left behind. They grow out of touch. They are quickly forgotten. They fight among themselves in sheer frustration. This is why a country like China is often happy to hand over a jailed dissident to a foreign country. When this happens, China is applauded for making a gesture of goodwill, and it gets rid of a potentially dangerous opponent of the regime. This is why Navalny, for example, decided that he had to go back to Russia, knowing what risk he was taking. Abroad, his influence on Russians would have dwindled.

Your books often draw on films and literature to describe the sentiment of a particular time – do you also follow up on Chinese movies such as "Wolf Warrior" to understand the People's Republic, or does it make less sense due to the rather strict censorship?

No, I think it still makes sense. More than books, let alone scholarly books, the cinema is where most people get their ideas of the past, as well as the present. It is always useful to follow propaganda, in films, and other media, if you have the stomach for it, to get an insight into what rulers want people to believe. How much people in a dictatorship really believe what they are told is an open question. A lack of free information and debate makes people cynical and, at the same time, receptive to bizarre conspiracy theories, which can then be manipulated by the rulers.

The Dutch-English writer, essayist and historian Ian Buruma studied history, Chinese literature and Japanese cinema. His books on China include "Bad Elements: Chinese Rebels from Los Angeles to Beijing" and the novel "‎ The China Lover." He received the Erasmus Prize in 2008 for his outstanding contributions to culture, society and social sciences in Europe. Buruma was editor of "The New York Review of Books" and is Professor of Democracy, Human Rights and Journalism at Bard College.