Merz with Netanyahu + Conflicts in the Ukrainian army

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s inaugural visit to Israel is overshadowed by ongoing criticism of the resumption of arms deliveries to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. Human rights activists also accuse Merz of weakening international law and the International Criminal Court by meeting with the Israeli head of government. The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu in November 2024 – for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip.

Amnesty International has called for protests this Friday because of Merz’s meeting with Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Sunday. Max Lucks, human rights spokesperson for the Green parliamentary group in the Bundestag, told Table.Briefings: “I expect the German government to take back its blank check for arms exports.” Merz had imposed a partial delivery stop on the Netanyahu government in August due to Israel’s warfare in the Gaza Strip, but lifted it again in mid-November. “In view of the ongoing violence in the West Bank and the high number of civilian casualties since the ceasefire in Gaza, the resumption of arms deliveries cannot be justified,” criticizes Lucks. “I call for a ban on the export of all weapons that are not essential for Israel’s air defense against threats such as those from Iran. This is the only way we can ensure that German weapons do not contribute to further escalation or violations of international law.”

The ban on arms exports had provoked strong criticism within the Union as well as on the Israeli side. It also called into question the support for Israel that had previously been described as a “German raison d’état”. “Such a measure should never have been imposed on an ally,” Amir Baram, Director General of the Israeli Ministry of Defence, criticized on Wednesday during the commissioning of the Arrow air defence system by the Bundeswehr at the Schönewalde/Holzdorf airbase in southern Brandenburg. The director of Israeli think tank Mitvim, Gil Murciano, told Table.Briefings: “The subtext of the trip is certainly whether the security aspects or those relating to the values behind the German raison d’état will be emphasized towards Israel in the future.”

Merz is the first head of government of an EU member state to meet Netanyahu since the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. According to Murciano, this will allow the 76-year-old, who is on trial on corruption charges, to show that he is not as isolated internationally as his domestic political opponents make him out to be. He has tempered overly high expectations of the visit, but pointed out the regional context of the trip: The fact that Merz is visiting Jordan’s King Abdullah II before the meeting with Netanyahu shows that he wants to keep Germany in the game as a co-creator in a solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Ultimately, however, the most important thing at this point in time is to “prevent further escalation” – not only with regard to the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, but also with regard to the fragile ceasefire with Lebanon that has been in place since November 2023.

Eight weeks after the Sharm el-Sheikh peace agreement, it is in both Israel’s and the international interest to “maintain the ceasefire”. However, Murciano does not expect any further breakthroughs in shaping phase 2 of the agreement brokered by US President Donald Trump. In addition to the establishment of an international protectorate administration known as the Peace Council, this includes the deployment of a multinational protection force – as well as the disarmament of Hamas. Since the start of the ceasefire in mid-October, Hamas has controlled the most densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip, while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) mainly controls the border areas with the Israeli heartland. Merz has not scheduled any meetings with representatives of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Ramallah.

The pressure on overstretched Ukrainian defenses is increasing. Russia is concentrating its main thrust on the Donbas and is feeling its way into Sumy, Zaporizhzhia and the Kharkiv area.

Russia has refined its long-range attacks and is using the fog and forest areas for advances. Ukraine continues to hold central urban hubs and river lines such as the right bank of the Dnipro near Kherson, Kupyansk, Myrnohrad and Siversk. A high price is being paid; many are killed and injured. Because Ukrainian logistics is under constant attack, supply by drones (air and ground) is increasing.

Key developments:

• The stability of supply (logistics) and morale are becoming increasingly fragile on both sides. Russia seems to be deliberately destroying the Ukrainian railway infrastructure.

• In the Zaporizhzhia region, the Ukrainian armed forces are facing major problems. Russia’s army is advancing.

• Conflicts within Ukrainian units between newly mobilized and more experienced soldiers are increasing, and the number of soldiers missing without permission is increasing.

Overview of individual frontline regions

Kherson: The Kherson region is still marked by intense return fire across the Dnipro and systematic strikes on infrastructure, rather than large-scale movements. Russian troops have significantly increased rocket launcher and artillery attacks on the city, with a clear focus on energy facilities and densely populated residential neighborhoods.

In Ukraine’s view, “the river is completely under our control.” On the left side of the Dnipro, Russia is laying pontoon bridges, but these movements are detected and combatted early on by Ukrainian drones. Increased Ukrainian drone presence, new fortifications and logistics hubs on the right bank are increasing the cost of Russian pressure. In addition, there is a growing ammunition problem on the Russian side. Overall, the front in the Kherson area is likely to remain static over the winter.

Zaporizhzhia: Russia has made significant tactical progress in the Zaporizhzhia area, especially near Huliaipole. Russian troops now have the opportunity to break through Ukrainian lines along the left bank of the Haichul and advance towards Vysoke. Several Ukrainian units are tied up in a narrowed defense belt. The leadership is considering giving up the left bank.

Ukrainian officers speak of leadership failures in individual formations and expect investigations and arrests, while reserves of the 7th Army Corps and Paladin howitzers are being brought in to stabilize the line in the open steppe – a terrain that severely exposes Ukrainian artillery and logistics to the threat of FPV drones.

Donbas (Donetsk/Luhansk): Ukraine’s position in Donbas is steadily deteriorating. After the fall of Pokrovsk in the south, Russia is concentrating up to 150,000 soldiers in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad-Dobropillya agglomeration area, according to Ukrainian sources. Myrnohrad is defended by marines, airborne and National Guard units, which rely on foot logistics, robotic supply systems and a narrow, constantly shelled connection via Rodynske.

Ukrainian officers point out that Myrnohrad has been declared a political “fortress” – like Bakhmut or Avdiivka before it. This ties up Russian forces, but increases the risk of a defense with heavy losses approaching the limits of operational viability. In northern Donbas, the situation around Siversk is coming to a head. Russian troops are entering the city from the southwest.

Kharkiv: In this region, the situation near Kupyansk is relatively stable, but at Vovchansk it is much more volatile. Kupyansk is held by a well-organized Ukrainian group led by the 3rd Army Corps. This has improved command, logistics and fire coordination (including HIMARS and air strikes). Ukrainians report Russian soldiers coming out of hiding holding white cloths after weeks in basements.

In Vovchansk, on the other hand, the Russian “North” group is using fog, forest strips and the urban structure to advance along the railway line. T-80BVM tanks, explosive charges in buildings, intense UAV and air strikes characterize a high-risk urban battle.

Sumy: In the Sumy area, Russia is conducting a consistent “creeping offensive”. Oleksiivka and Varachyne are considered lost; the fighting is shifting in the forest belt towards Mala Korchakivka, Korchakivka and Nova Sich. Ukrainian soldiers report constant “grinding down, house by house” by drones and artillery, low motivation among many mobilized and a small minority of experienced fighters bearing the load at the front line.

Overall assessment: The balance of power is shifting in favor of Russia in small, often localized steps: additional villages in the forest belt near Sumy, destroyed bases and roads in Donbas, further damage to railway junctions.

The bottom line, however, is that the conflict remains a burdensome competition without a foreseeable decision in the field: Ukraine cannot win the war just by “holding out”, Russia cannot win it just by “continuing to press forward”. How this stalemate will change depends on the ability of both sides to mobilize resources and preserve political space for action, both internally and externally.

The information comes from various human sources on both sides of the frontline. They were checked as comprehensively as possible. More detailed analyses and additional information can be obtained from Reaktion Group Consulting on request.

This Friday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz wants to personally convince Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever to agree to the use of Russian assets for a reparations loan to Ukraine. Ukraine needs new financial aid from April to continue defending itself against Russian aggression and to finance its budget.

On Thursday, the Chancellor changed his plans for Friday at short notice for his trip to Belgium. Originally, he wanted to make his inaugural visit to Oslo in Norway. However, because Berlin believes that the negotiations on Ukraine are entering a delicate phase, Merz wants to talk to his counterpart. De Wever considers the guarantees proposed by the Commission to date to be insufficient protection against possible Russian reprisals against Belgium as the location of the securities depository Euroclear.

It is unclear how Merz intends to convince the Belgian Prime Minister. On Wednesday, the EU Commission presented two proposals on the financing of Ukraine and largely agreed to Belgium’s demands. A clear majority of ambassadors are in favor of using the blocked Russian state bank funds and a reparations loan.

There is much incomprehension about Belgium’s continued resistance. But at least one political agreement is planned for the summit on Dec. 18. Council President António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen want to avoid, at all costs, a repeat of October, when the heads of state and government parted without a result. For the reparation loan, blocked Russian state bank funds totaling EUR 210 billion are to be used. EUR 185 billion are blocked at the custodian Euroclear in Brussels or deposited as cash at the ECB. The remaining funds are held by banks in other EU member states.

The tripartite meeting in Brussels is taking place against a backdrop of Russian threats. At the end of September, President Vladimir Putin signed a law that is seen as a response to the EU's actions. According to this law, the Russian state bank PSB is to compulsorily value nationalized Western companies within ten days and then auction them off. The spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, threatened “extremely harsh” reactions on Thursday if the EU were to use Russian assets, saying that Russia’s response would be a “surprise”. Stefan Braun, Viktor Funk, Stephan Israel

At their autumn meeting, the interior ministers did not discuss a joint concept for shelters in private basements and public parking garages, subway railroad shafts or community centers against drone and missile attacks as planned. The Federal Ministry of the Interior had removed the item from the agenda at short notice. According to participants, the content was not in a form in which it could have been presented to the federal states. Instead, it is to be discussed at the spring conference as part of the civil protection pact announced by Alexander Dobrindt (CSU). Dobrindt wants to invest ten billion euros in civil protection over the next four years.

The Conference of Interior Ministers (IMK) also shows how far apart the federal states are when it comes to assessing the threat. In an interview with Table.Briefings, Bremen’s Senator of the Interior and chair of the IMK, Ulrich Mäurer (SPD), warned against panicking: “I think the idea that Russia will soon invade Potsdam is completely absurd.” He puts “a big question mark” behind the military’s hypothesis that Russia could be in a position to attack NATO territory by 2029. And adds that not every drone sighted over Bremen comes from Moscow.

A different tone was heard from Bavaria: People in those parts must be prepared for the danger of a military conflict, said Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann (CSU) to Table.Briefings. He called for the federal government to make a clear commitment to civil defense. Hermann said that the war in the Ukraine and Israel, for example, showed that people did seek shelter in basements. He observed that no progress had been made in setting up a siren warning network in recent years. In his view it was necessary to think about auxiliary hospitals, where people could be treated if another hospital was hit by a rocket. These were things that the federal and state governments now wanted to agree on, said Herrmann.

However, the federal states do want to agree on a joint concept for defending against drones. According to Maurer, it is right and necessary to create a central unit within the federal police force: “The first thing we need is a common picture of the situation, because we have no idea what is moving above our heads.” He added that not every federal state could procure its own new systems, there was not enough money for this and it needed to be coordinated. Lisa-Martina Klein

The results of a first comprehensive field test of the “Digitization Land-Based Operations” (D-LBO) project last month are not satisfactory. “There has been progress, but unfortunately there are still too many problems,” said Federal Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius (SPD) on Wednesday after a meeting with industry representatives in Berlin.

He is therefore setting up a new staff unit in the Ministry of Defense. This is to closely monitor the major project, which is estimated to cost at least eleven billion euros, and ensure that problems are quickly identified and resolved. It will be “exclusively” responsible for coordinating the project and will report to Inspector General Carsten Breuer and the State Secretary for Armaments, Jens Plötner. In addition, project control in the Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support (BAAINBw) will be strengthened. A coordination office has been in place there since 2023, when the first problems became known. Now a coordinator from the Procurement Office is also to be permanently on site in Munster.

The list of problems is long: According to Pistorius, there are difficulties with data transfer and the interaction of various software components. In addition, the sample integration, i.e. the trial installation that has to take place for each vehicle type so that series integration into the vehicles is possible, is being delayed. In addition, so-called mixed operation, i.e. communication between the converted vehicles and the systems that are still analog, is not yet working. This is particularly problematic because mixed operation has become even more relevant due to the delays and must be planned for well into the ’30s.

In future, tests are to be carried out more regularly. The next overall system verification is planned for the middle of next year. However, more regular tests are to take place during ongoing operations, with troops also involved to check operational suitability directly on site and solve problems quickly.

With these measures, Pistorius wants to adhere to the ambitious schedule despite the ongoing problems. By the end of 2027, the first army division, i.e. around 6,000 vehicles, should be equipped with the new system. By the end of 2025, only around 200 vehicles will have been converted. Pistorius spoke of a technological leap of 40 years, the implementation of which would normally take at least 15 years. There is no plan B. “Everyone knows that we have no choice but to succeed together,” said Pistorius. Wilhelmine Stenglin

The Berlin Senate wants to turn the capital into a central location for defense and security technologies. On Tuesday, it voted to set up a “Defense Technology” (DefTech) ecosystem, which aims to network research, business and start-ups more closely and bring innovations to market more quickly. The aim is to “noticeably strengthen” Berlin as a location for technology and innovation, according to the Senate Chancellery.

The federal state’s own business development corporation Berlin Partner has been tasked with implementation. Support comes from the Senate Department for Economics, Energy and Public Enterprises, Wista Management GmbH in Adlershof and Investitionsbank Berlin. In addition, the Senate Chancellery is setting up a new staff unit that will serve as a central point of contact for the federal government and the EU and coordinate interdepartmental agreements.

Berlin is already home to many players: According to the Senate, around 130 companies from the security and defense industry are based in the capital, in addition to more than 400 companies in the dual-use sector. This potential is now to be exploited in a targeted manner, said Economics Senator Franziska Giffey. Giffey says Berlin wants to attract more companies and start-ups, particularly from technology fields such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, health tech, drones, optics, photonics, robotics, aerospace technology and sensor technology.

With the establishment of the DefTech ecosystem, Berlin is following a nationwide trend: North Rhine-Westphalia, Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein have also launched government-funded networks this year to strengthen their defense industries. Lisa-Martina Klein

The start-up Espargos and a team of scientists from Clausthal University of Technology have won the “Spectra Challenge” organized by the Cyber Agency, the Bundeswehr Cyber Innovation Hub and the Soldier Innovation Lab. The background to the event: the Bundeswehr is looking for solutions to enable drones to function in the field despite enemy jamming systems. To solve this problem, 46 participants in the Innovation Challenge submitted proposals for solutions by September. Last week, the remaining 13 finalists tested their technology at the Bundeswehr site in Erding near Munich.

Participants included start-ups, university teams and individuals. The most prominent representative was probably the Berlin-based combat drone start-up Stark. They presented their “Raven” sensor solution, which is set to enter its final development phase next year. Attached to drones, it should be able to detect and localize jammers. Loitering munition systems could then attack the enemy technology.

The winners of the Spectra Challenge rely on everyday technology. Espargos came out on top in the “Praxistrack”, the competition in which teams with mature technologies took part. The team consists mainly of doctoral students from the Institute for Communication Technology at the University of Stuttgart. Their winning product consists of several sensors that can detect jammers and other drones. The system can be used on the ground or in drones and is said to be cost-effective thanks to the use of mass-produced computer chips from Europe. The competition in the “Moonshot Track”, in which finalists presented solutions from basic research, was won by the team from Clausthal University of Technology. Robert Wallenhauer

TKMS: MDAX entry – proof of confidence for the newcomer on the German stock exchange

Isar Aerospace and ESA: Contract signed to carry out a mission as part of the “Horizon 2020” program

Saab: New order for mobile air defense from Lithuania

Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy: Fact sheet on the classification of loitering munitions and drones as war weapons

Konrad Adenauer Foundation: Security Snapshot – The Road Ahead: How Europe Wants to Defend Itself

It’s almost exasperating: Every time Trump & Co come up with another hair-raising plan, Europe behaves like a scattered flock of chickens. Top-level meetings are convened almost in a panic to “prevent the worst”. The latest “peace plan” for Ukraine, at least a number of key points of which were originally penned by Russia, is just the latest sad example. Europe should have been warned, at the latest since the unspeakable meeting between Trump and the war criminal Putin in Alaska, and should have developed and presented its own plan – but no such luck.

The sad truth is: When it comes to security and defense, Europeans have no experience with geostrategic leadership. In recent decades, this has come from the USA. The Europeans have often followed these instructions willingly, sometimes rather hesitantly.

Those days are over. The United States under Donald Trump is no longer a partner – for us in the EU or in NATO. Trump has driven a wedge between US and European security. As Europeans, we must, in the spirit of Kant, “find the way out of our self-inflicted immaturity,” use our common sense and agree on a new leadership formula. This requires drive, determination and courage.

What could a strategic leadership of Europe look like? Individual potential players each have their own weaknesses: France and the UK could be considered in principle due to their role as European nuclear powers. However, the UK’s withdrawal from the EU speaks against it. In the case of France, it is the unstable domestic political situation. Germany could be considered as Europe’s largest economy, but would always see a leadership role as a joint effort. Poland has one of the largest armies in Europe and defense spending of almost five percent of GDP, but has image problems due to its close bilateral relations with the US and its “fixation” on the Russian threat.

Against this background, I believe the best way to organize this strategic leadership is through a “European leadership quintet or sextet”. This would initially be an informal alliance of France, the UK, Poland, Italy, Germany and the EU Commission. Existing formats such as the Weimar Triangle or the “Weimar+” format could be used as a nucleus. Or the existing E3 format for diplomatic cooperation between the UK, France and Germany could be expanded further. Finally, the “coalition of the willing” that has formed in connection with support for Ukraine could also be used as a basis.

Regardless of which approach is taken: The emerging quintet or sextet should give itself a new name that reflects its new role and mandate. Possible options would be European Quintet, European Leadership Quintet, Euro Quintet or European Quintet Entente.

Important leadership tasks of this group would include the development of a strategy for more European sovereignty, peace and security and also a genuinely European peace plan for Ukraine.

At least in an initial phase, the quintet or sextet would continue to function as an informal coalition of the willing. This has the significant advantage of flexibility and the ability to act – two qualities that are of central value for European strategic responsibility. In the future, it may become necessary to integrate the group into a broader reformed structure of the European defense and security architecture. Europe must finally take its destiny into its own hands. A new European leadership quintet could play a central role.

Gerlinde Niehus spent more than 25 years in various leadership positions at NATO, most recently at NATO Headquarters as Deputy Director for Security Cooperation with NATO Partner Countries. She now works as an independent expert on NATO and international security policy.

Editor’s note: Opinion articles do not reflect the opinion of the editorial team.

“Because the next generation also has the right to peace”: It’s hard to disagree with this sentence on a poster in a Berlin subway station. You might be surprised at the camouflage background though. Does it have anything to do with the sentence? But by then the subway train has already rushed out of the station. But what does it say on that advertising pillar over there? “Because we are the strongest peace movement in Germany.” Well, I guess everyone got that bit. Or not.

Of course, it’s hard to find “70 damn good reasons” why the Bundeswehr is simply a cool employer. (It had to be 70, because of the 70th anniversary.) But with slogans like “Because we are the firewall of reality”, you can sometimes earn scathing comments on Instagram. “Who was your consultant?” writes one. And reason #58: Because it’s ‘We-Time’ now” is probably only funny to parents. Incidentally, the most likes were given to reason #08: “Because you can’t take peace for granted.” That one you can understand even if the subway train rushes past. Nana Brink