Why the Kremlin understands Aleksandar Vučić better than Brussels.

Will she greet him at dinner as usual with “Dear Aleksandar” and once again praise his successes with democratic reforms? Or will the EU Commission President at least find words of admonishment for Serbia's autocrat Aleksandar Vučić behind closed doors? She is due to receive him in Brussels next Tuesday, with the President of the European Council António Costa in attendance. However, more than thirty Members of the European Parliament have expressed their “deep concern” about this meeting in a letter to von Leyen.

In Serbia, hundreds of thousands of students and citizens have been demonstrating against Vučić's regime for four months. They no longer want to accept corruption and the intertwining of the state and organized crime, political oppression and the vilest defamation of dissidents in media loyal to the regime. According to estimates by independent organizations, around 300,000 people took to the streets in Belgrade on 15 March to demand an end to the Vučić regime. Domestic and foreign organizations accuse the regime of using sound cannons against the demonstrators. Several dozen people were hospitalized with internal injuries.

MEPs warned the Commission President: A meeting with the Serbian tyrant at this critical time could reinforce the impression that the EU is ignoring democratic backsliding. Instead, Serbian citizens should receive a “loud and clear message” from the EU, namely that Brussels stands by them in their “unprecedented fight for the rule of law, democracy and accountability.”

The fact that this group of MEPs is made up of Social Democrats, Liberals, Greens and Leftists, i.e. political opponents of the Commission President, is likely to have played a role in von der Leyen not following her opinion. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also met with the Serbian autocrat for a tête-à-tête last week. And he also overlooks the fact that Vučić and his subordinates almost daily accuse “Western secret services,” the embassies of EU countries and non-governmental organizations of being behind the protests in Serbia.

The week before last, Vučić had heavily armed police officers storm the offices of civil society groups in front of the media cameras. This was to search for evidence of alleged corruption at the aid organization in the shadow of the Trump administration's campaign against USAID. The president keeps repeating that the protests against him are just an attempt at a “color revolution.” However, he will win and write a “world bestseller,” a “textbook” on how to deal with such attempted coups. Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin also thanked the Russian “special services” in Moscow media for the information they provided in the fight against the Western-led color revolution in Serbia.

Is it confusion tactics or audacity when, according to Belgrade media, Vučić simultaneously complains to Western politicians that the protests are being directed against him by Russia? Serbia's president has taken his seesaw policy between Brussels, Moscow and Beijing to the extreme. The signals from the Kremlin have been increasingly ominous of late. In an interview, Russia's ambassador in Belgrade noted certain similarities with the “color revolutions” in Ukraine and Georgia. But ultimately the protests are specific to Serbia.

Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, called on Vučić to engage in dialog between citizens and the government. The aim was to “find solutions to complex and sensitive issues of fundamental national interest.” However, she avoided using the fighting term “color revolution.” The fact that Vučić met the NATO Secretary General just a few days before the anniversary of the NATO attack on Serbia not only went down badly in Serbia but also upset the Kremlin. It also noticed that Serbia does not support the EU sanctions against Russia, but at the same time supplies ammunition to Ukraine. No wonder that spokeswoman Zakharova treats President Vučić as a disloyal Cantonist. Moscow must also have noticed that Vučić's approval rating in polls is only 30 percent for the first time since he took office 12 years ago. More than 40 percent of respondents would vote for the opposition.

It must be a consolation for Vučić that Donald Trump Junior paid his respects in Belgrade a few days ago. “A cordial conversation” about relations between Serbia and the USA as well as current global political and economic issues, the Serbian president posted after the meeting. A trip that, according to the New York Times, perhaps represents the clearest intertwining of US foreign policy and the financial interests of the Trump family. The Trump family is currently pushing ahead with billion-dollar plans to build a Trump International Hotel in Belgrade, the first of its kind in Europe.

Many problems for which the West and the EU are partly responsible remain unresolved in the post-Yugoslav region. Without Belgrade, the pent-up tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo cannot be defused. Berlin, Brussels and Moscow are aware of this. But it should also be clear to the EU and NATO: The problems cannot be solved with Vučič and the other enemies of democracy in the region. Especially not if the West sabotages the great struggle of the people in Serbia for freedom and democracy by not taking note of it.

Dušan Reljić was head of the Brussels office of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) between 2013 and 2023. Today, the former journalist works as a political consultant.