Ahead of the UN General Assembly and COP30, climate science and the UN process are under internal and external pressure. Hans-Otto Pörtner argues that the structures of the IPCC and UNFCCC should also be changed for greater efficiency as part of UN reforms.
By Hans-Otto Pörtner
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), also known as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, plays a central role in the scientific study of climate change. As one of the key institutions shaping the global discourse on climate issues, the IPCC publishes reports that serve as a basis for political decisions and provide guidance to governments and organizations worldwide. Its analyses are based on the latest scientific findings and contribute to the development of effective strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Read all about the importance of the IPCC, the key messages of current reports and the scenarios used, from the Table.Briefings editorial team. What is the IPCC? The IPCC was founded in 1988 by the United Nations (UN) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Its aim is to provide an objective, scientific basis for climate policy. The IPCC does not produce its own research, but evaluates existing scientific literature and summarizes it in comprehensive reports. The IPCC's reports have international influence and are published regularly in so-called Assessment Reports. These provide a comprehensive overview of the state of climate research, possible future developments and recommendations for action. What does the IPCC report on climate change contain? The IPCC reports analyze the causes and effects of climate change as well as possible measures to limit global warming. The IPCC report from 2023, for example, focused in particular on the progress made in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as set out in the Paris Climate Agreement. It also sheds light on the effects of climate change on ecosystems, human societies and economic systems. A typical IPCC assessment report is divided into three working groups: The next IPCC report in 2024 is expected to provide new findings that build on previous analyses. One focus will be on analyzing regional developments and the role of climate change adaptation strategies. What are RCP scenarios in the IPCC? RCP stands for "Representative Concentration Pathways" and describes scenarios for future greenhouse gas concentrations and their impacts. These scenarios are of central importance for the work of the IPCC, as they represent possible future developments under various political, economic and technological assumptions. There are four main scenarios: These IPCC scenarios help to assess risks and opportunities for different courses of action. In the more recent reports, RCPs have been supplemented by the "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways" (SSPs), which include socio-economic aspects such as population growth and technological developments. The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report: A change of course in climate protection? The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report from 2007 marked a decisive milestone that permanently changed the global perception of climate change. It was established that global warming is clearly documented and that human influence on the climate system is verifiably documented. As a result, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the IPCC and Al Gore. The report laid the scientific foundation for the Kyoto Protocol and the subsequent climate negotiations. The findings from the fourth report are still relevant today, as they emphasize the urgency and risks of unchecked climate change. IPCC scenarios In addition to the RCPs and SSPs, the IPCC examines various scenarios that show possible developments. These scenarios take into account both natural factors and human interventions such as changes in land use and technological innovations. They provide an important basis for political decisions and support the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies. An illustrative example is the analysis of the global impact of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to 2 degrees Celsius. The differences in the effects are significant and affect, among other things, the extinction of species, the availability of drinking water and the frequency of extreme weather events. Criticism of the IPCC Despite its central importance, the IPCC is also subject to criticism. The IPCC is an indispensable institution in global climate policy, as its reports provide a scientific basis for decisions that have a significant impact on the future of our planet. The work of the IPCC makes it clear that climate protection requires global and joint action. The scientific evidence provided by the IPCC is crucial to developing effective measures and tackling the challenges of climate change. The comprehensive analysis of climate data helps to better understand risks and develop strategies for climate adaptation and emission reduction. Its findings feed into international agreements and political measures, whereby close cooperation between governments, science and society is crucial in order to find and implement sustainable solutions.
