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Naturally, the Ukraine-Russia crisis was also a key topic at the China.Table China Strategy conference 2022. In the geopolitics panel, our invited experts will analyze the contradictions in China's position and discuss how Germany and Europe need to improve their relations with China.
By Michael Radunski
China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi warns Russia at the Munich Security Conference against an invasion of Ukraine. Nevertheless, Minxin Pei believes that China would benefit from an invasion. Moreover, the political scientist warns that the EU should be careful about its position. Europe is at risk of getting caught between the fronts.
By Redaktion Table
The Munich Security Conference is overshadowed by the crisis between Russia and Ukraine. China's foreign minister is also warning against a new Cold War. But his warnings are not directed at Russia. Only upon being asked does Beijing point out the limits to its partner in Moscow. The Sino-Russian partnership is a rational alliance of convenience.
By Michael Radunski
Geopolitics of China is driven by the economic growth of the People's Republic and the contentions of the other major powers. China's importance on the geopolitical map is rising. Table.Media's editorial team brings you all the relevant geopolitics news of China.
Globally, the West is losing influence. This is due to the enormous economic boom in India and especially China. After their establishment in 1950 (India) and 1949 (China), it was mainly the Soviet Union and later Russia that sought to establish a policy of détente between the two countries. Even today, there are trilateral relations between the countries. For example, in the fight against Covid-19. But there are some points of contention between China and India. One is over unresolved border issues. A dispute that has been raging since 1962. Since then, China has also supported Pakistan politically and economically. In 2020, the dispute escalated again when a brawl broke out between soldiers from China and India in the Indian district of Ladakh. According to the Indian military, twenty Indian soldiers were killed. The second major point of contention between China and India is water supply. India gets a lot of drinking water from the Brahmaputra, which rises in the Himalayas. However, it is on Chinese territory. China diverted a lot of water towards Beijing, which led to water shortages in Bangladesh and India. Basically, the Chinese Communist Party seeks to contain India's political influence in order to strengthen its own.
China's geopolitical rise also has much to do with the People's Republic's massive defense spending. With 2.3 million soldiers, China’s People’s Liberation Army is the largest in the world. By its own account, the Chinese military owns 6,300 tanks, 350 warships, 49 aircraft carriers and 50 submarines. Although the number of soldiers has been reduced in recent years, spending has increased. The background to this is the planned modernization of equipment. China spent around 174 billion euros on the military in 2019. However, experts suspect that many expenditures flowed into non-military items and cannot be clearly allocated. Therefore, China's military budget for 2019 is estimated at $261 billion. China wants to take the same role geopolitically that the U.S. currently has. The army is to be deployed wherever military presence is needed. Also, to represent the security of its own country and Chinese interests.
China is involved in various territorial disputes in the Indo-Pacific, some of which have been simmering for decades. The People's Republic is therefore massively expanding its navy and claims several islands for itself, especially in the South China Sea. In order to better protect itself from China's claims to power, Australia has reached an agreement with the United States and Great Britain on an Indo-Pacific pact. Among other things, this involves the delivery of nuclear-powered submarines. However, Nils Schmid, foreign policy spokesman for the SPD parliamentary group in the Bundestag, emphasizes that this would not just be a treaty on armaments, but a strategic cooperation. Originally, France and the EU were to take the role of the U.S., but Australia canceled the supply contract for the submarines. Schmid urges that Europe must come up with a strategy not to give up its own influence in the Indo-Pacific. After all, he says, trade is always embedded in geopolitical considerations.
Relations between Germany and China are complicated. On the one hand, economic cooperation is important for both sides. After all, the volume of trade in 2020 was 212.1 billion euros. Whereby Germany imported more (116.3 billion euros) than exported (95.9 billion euros). But there are major points of contention. One of them is the human rights situation in the People's Republic. Another is that Germany believes it is not an equal trading partner. The EU Commission even called China a "systemic rival" in March 2019 and even imposed sanctions on the People's Republic. The greatest common ground is political cooperation on environmental protection. The People's Republic wants to be CO2-neutral by 2060. German Environment Minister Svenja Schulze signed an agreement to this effect with her counterpart Huang Runqui.
The human rights situation in China repeatedly leads to criticism of the People's Republic in Germany. In Xinjiang, Uyghur minorities are persecuted and put into re-education camps. German companies also profit from their forced labor. In addition, there is the suppression of the democracy movement in Hong Kong and military threats against Taiwan. An open dispute between Germany and China then flared up over the "Second Law for Increasing the Security of Information Technology Systems". Its requirements for participation in the expansion of the 5G network in Germany make it enormously difficult for Huawei to gain market access.
There is an extremely tense political atmosphere between the US and China. After the election of Joe Biden as the new U.S. president, the country has continued its tough course against the People's Republic. The confrontational course serves to protect "core U.S. national security interests and democratic values," writes the White House in a statement. The background is Biden's measure to blacklist 59 Chinese companies. Observers believe that U.S. policy toward China is primarily intended to prevent the rise of the People's Republic as a world power and technology leader in key technology. To this end, U.S. President Joe Biden, like his predecessor in office Donald Trump, is relying on the principle of decoupling. This is based on "decoupling" the American and Chinese economies. Because imports and exports are to be cut back, both countries are seeking new partnerships and trade agreements.
China's dual circulation policy is intended to strengthen its domestic economy. The principle of dual circulation is a central component of the current five-year plan, which was adopted in 2021. Dual Circulation is intended to make the People's Republic less dependent on imports. This is to be achieved by introducing subsidies for domestic companies and import barriers for non-Chinese companies. In addition to the trade war with the U.S., the corona pandemic has also fueled the dual circulation policy. China does not want to be dependent on global trading partners for its growth plans. The People's Republic also expects the dual-circulation policy to give new impetus to its Made in China 2025 strategy, which aims to make the country the world's leading high-tech power.
Some 140 countries are part of China's New Silk Road project. Also called One Belt, One Road or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This is a collection of diverse infrastructure measures to improve global trade flows. The People's Republic has been pushing ahead with the plans since 2013. The aim is to bring the resource-rich countries in Africa closer to China. But 18 of the 27 European member states have also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). This is a declaration of intent for integration into the New Silk Road. The New Silk Road projects are financed by banks and funds that give loans to the participating countries. But China's security for the loans is extremely strict. In the event of bankruptcy, the Chinese loans must be serviced with priority. But because the contracts are secret, other lenders do not know about the debtor's financial situation. They are accordingly reluctant to lend. China is using the loans to pursue geopolitical interests. In some cases, the People's Republic can even demand the return of the borrowed money if it does not agree with the policies of the partner country.
In the summer of 2020, Xi Jinping, China's head of state, had announced that he would give away vaccines to emerging and developing countries. Above all, China is interested in influence in Latin America. The best example of this is Brazil. Its president, Jair Bolsonaro, rejected vaccination in principle, railed against China, called Covid-19 a "communist virus" and announced that São Paulo should have its own vaccine factory. But Sinovac, the Chinese company that was to supply all the goods needed, stopped the collaboration in February 2021. Supplies did not return until Huawei was allowed to participate in the tender for the 5G rollout in Brazil. It had previously been banned from doing so because of accusations that the Chinese telecom equipment maker was using its technology for espionage purposes.
Hong Kong is a special administrative region under the control of the People's Republic of China. Under the premise of "one country, two systems," the metropolis is granted various rights that other administrative zones in China do not have. For example, free elections or freedom of speech and assembly. The principle is officially valid until 2047, but in recent years there have been various violations of independence by China and massive protests by the citizens of Hong Kong. China took control of Hong Kong from the British on July 1, 1997. However, the capitalist system, its own currency and legal system were to remain. However, Yiu-Chung Wong, a professor of political science at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, emphasizes that since then there has been a "creeping erosion of the formally guaranteed liberal social order."
From the perspective of the People's Republic of China, Taiwan is a breakaway province. Taiwan considers itself a democratic island state. Geopolitically, Taiwan is often the subject of heated debate. Anyone who maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan and thus recognizes its independence from China may no longer have diplomatic relations with the People's Republic. Japan was one of the first countries to break off relations with Taiwan and recognize the One China policy. The conflict between Taiwan and China is based on the civil war in what is now the People's Republic of China after the end of World War II. Under the leadership of Chiang Kai-shek, the Kuomintang fought against the communists of the People's Liberation Army under Mao Zedong. The national conservative former government fled to Taiwan in order to reconquer the mainland from there. This was not to happen until today.
China aspires to become a world power. Its geopolitical efforts are correspondingly offensive. All the latest geopolitics news from the Table.Media editorial team.