Special summit: How von der Leyen plans to support the armament of the member states

Ursula von der Leyen will present her plan for "Rearm Europe" to the member states in a letter today. This is in view of the special summit on Thursday in Brussels. Europe "undoubtedly" needs a massive increase in defense spending, said the Commission President. In the letter, she will list options as to how these armaments efforts could be financed.

An instrument based on the model of the SURE program is likely to play a central role in this. The SURE program mobilized almost €100 billion during the pandemic to protect jobs. The EU issued bonds on the market, which it then passed on to the member states at the same conditions, which was particularly beneficial for those member states that would have had to pay higher interest rates on the market. The loans were guaranteed by the member states.

The instrument is now to be used to support the Member States' armaments efforts, which would also indirectly benefit Ukraine. The advantage of the SURE model on the legal basis of Article 122 is that only a qualified majority is required. Hungary and Slovakia would therefore not be able to block the instrument on their own. This is in contrast, for example, to the proposal that the Foreign Affairs Commissioner presented to the foreign ministers of the member states last week. Kaja Kallas proposes an initiative to finance 1.5 million artillery shells, missile defense systems and the training and equipment of two brigades for Ukraine with up to €20 billion. Although Hungary would not have to participate in the initiative, it would have to clear the way in terms of constructive abstention.

Ursula von der Leyen is not expected to give a concrete figure for the SURE instrument until the summit. Under this model, the EU Commission would raise money on the capital market and pass it on to member states in the form of repayable loans. In view of the interest rates for EU bonds, it is unclear for how many EU states the instrument for financing armaments expenditure will be attractive. In her letter, the Commission President is also likely to specify how the national exit clause in the Stability Pact could facilitate armaments efforts by member states.

Another topic will be the possible reallocation of funds from the Structural and Cohesion Funds and an extension of the EIB mandate. A lasting peace in Ukraine is only possible from a position of strength, said Ursula von der Leyen.

According to diplomats, possible security guarantees for Ukraine and the strengthening of European defense will be the two topics at the special summit. In bilateral talks, most heads of state and government have spoken out in favor of significantly increasing support for Ukraine. There is also broad support for the question of whether the EU needs a special envoy for Ukraine. CDU leader Friedrich Merz will be attending the preparatory meeting of the European People's Party (EPP) from Berlin. Merz said in Berlin that he hoped that he and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz would reach a common position before the special summit.

Parallel to the summit preparations, discussions on security guarantees outside the EU structures are also continuing. A number of countries and allies have pledged their support for a European peace plan, said British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. French President Emmanuel Macron told the French newspaper Le Figaro that he had spoken to Starmer about a limited ceasefire of one month "in the air, at sea and in the area of energy infrastructure." The fighting on the front in eastern Ukraine would therefore not be affected by the plans for the time being. sti/ja