Viktor Orbán: Why he continues to escalate in isolation

If 26 member states have a common position and a single country has a different one, its "isolation must be respected," said António Costa at the end of the summit last week. The EU Council President was describing a new normality in which the heads of state and government overlook Viktor Orbán's opposition and adopt conclusions on Ukraine without any major drama as the EU-26.

Orbán may be isolated in the EU, but the head of government is currently radicalizing at home. He is pushing ahead with his agenda unimpressed by pressure from Brussels, ongoing infringement proceedings or ECJ rulings. The EU Commission is monitoring developments closely, said a spokesperson on the new Hungarian law, which Viktor Orbán could use to ban Pride events in future and allow the police to use facial recognition software. Freedom of assembly is a fundamental right that must be defended throughout the EU, said the Commission spokesperson. Orbán is not only concerned with the Pride Parade, MEPs from almost all political groups protested last week. Hungary is no longer a fully-fledged democracy.

The prime minister now refers to political opponents as vermin: the "bugs" have survived the winter, but now they are being cleaned up, he said on March 15 at a rally to commemorate the revolution of 1848. The "financial machinery" that has bought politicians, judges, journalists, activists or "pseudo-NGOs" with corrupt dollars will be smashed. If you want to see what Donald Trump is up to, you have to come to Hungary, says an observer in Budapest. As an advocate of illiberal democracy, Viktor Orbán is politicizing according to a similar script as the US president, whose return Hungary's head of government has been eagerly awaiting.

Orbán's tragedy, however, could be that he is reaching the limits of his business model in Hungary now of all times. Now that Donald Trump has actually made a comeback. Long before Trump, Orbán mobilized a stable following with his campaigns against the "woke virus" or "migration madness." However, he can no longer distract attention from the desolate state of the Hungarian economy and the exploding cost of living. Orbán is trying in vain to get a grip on the problem with price caps for basic foodstuffs.

Hungary has one of the highest inflation rates in the EU. During his appearance last week, he accused foreign food chains such as the British Tesco or the Austrian Spar of artificially driving up prices. Spar and other foreign companies are being put under pressure with special taxes or other forms of harassment to force them out of the market or to sell to political allies of the head of government. As a result, the investment climate is at an all-time low. Hungary is dependent on EU funds for public investment, but Brussels has frozen a total of €20 billion in subsidies. The coffers are empty and public facilities such as hospitals and schools are in poor condition.

Orbán can hardly expect any help from Trump. On the contrary: as an important supplier to the German automotive industry, Hungary would be particularly hard hit by the threat of punitive tariffs from the USA. The head of government is also escalating his rhetoric because he is facing serious competition for the first time in Péter Magyar and his Tisza party. The 43-year-old is benefiting from frustration over corruption and the high cost of living. According to the latest polls, the challenger could win by a clear margin in the elections at the beginning of 2026.

The dominant view in Brussels is that only the Hungarians themselves can solve the Orbán problem. Infringement proceedings, ECJ rulings and the withdrawal of funds have so far failed to bring about a rethink in Budapest. At last Thursday's summit, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also emphasized that the EU has so far shown itself capable of acting in the face of the greatest security policy challenges, despite Orbán. Among other things, he referred to the extension of individual sanctions against Russian oligarchs, which Hungary ultimately agreed to. The big question is whether this will continue to work in the future.

The next test is due at the end of June. The extension of the sectoral sanctions against Russia will then be due again. Including the issue of the blocked Russian central bank funds, the proceeds of which the EU can use to finance budget and military aid for Ukraine this year. There is a lot at stake for the EU and also for Viktor Orbán before the summer break.