EU-Turkey: Imamoğlu arrest calls rapprochement into question

The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and numerous opposition activists calls Turkey's recent rapprochement with the EU into question. Chancellor Olaf Scholz described the action as "depressing for democracy in Turkey, but certainly also depressing for the relationship between Europe and Turkey." Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the arrest "extremely worrying."

The EU and Turkey have been moving towards each other in recent weeks. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan took part in the meeting in London at the invitation of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which focused on a European peace plan for Ukraine. The day after the special EU summit on March 6, Council President António Costa and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen debriefed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan alongside Starmer and the prime ministers of Norway, Iceland and Canada. Following yesterday's summit, there were to be further talks today.

The reason for this is the political and military importance of the country. Erdoğan maintains good relations with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskiy and had seen himself as the host for the US-Russian talks on Ukraine, which are now taking place in Saudi Arabia. Turkey also has the second largest armed forces in NATO. In view of its potential capabilities, the country cannot be ignored, according to government circles in Berlin. However, recent events have not made the discussions any easier.

Turkey could benefit from funds from von der Leyen's new armaments initiative, for example. However, Ankara would first have to sign a security partnership with the EU, such as those signed by Albania and Japan. The chances of an agreement were already questionable, as Greece and Cyprus are critical of any rapprochement. The latest developments in Turkey are likely to further reduce the chances.

The mayor of Istanbul, İmamoğlu, was arrested on Wednesday. On Sunday, the largest opposition party CHP wanted to nominate him as its presidential candidate. The public prosecutor's office accuses him of corruption and supporting the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is classified as a terrorist organization. Following the arrest of İmamoğlu and dozens of other opposition activists, thousands of his supporters demonstrated in violent protests in Istanbul and Ankara. They see this as a beacon in the fight for Turkish democracy. The CHP mobilized its members and sympathizers for further demonstrations.

Erdoğan is likely hoping to eliminate a dangerous opponent. In 2016, he had already had the leader of the pro-Kurdish HDP party, Selahattin Demirtaş, arrested. İmamoğlu's clear victory in the Istanbul mayoral elections last year showed that the rule of Erdoğan and his AKP is no longer unassailable.

The building contractor İmamoğlu has gained great popularity as the head of the megapolis Istanbul. This predestines him to be Erdoğan's most dangerous opponent. As early as 2023, his participation in the presidential election was thwarted by legal dodges when proceedings were initiated to ban him from politics. with Stephan Israel