The strengthening and prioritization of European arms production under the motto "Buy European" is gaining momentum three months after US President Donald Trump took office. This has been triggered, among other things, by reports that the US administration has suspended its technical support for F-16 fighter jets that various European countries have made available to Ukraine.
Transatlanticists also have doubts as to whether the USA is still a reliable supplier. Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Munich Security Conference (MSC): "If they could deal with the German F-35s in the future in the same way they are currently dealing with Ukraine, then perhaps we should consider terminating the contract," wrote the former German ambassador in Washington on X.
EDIP has been slowed down. The European Defense Industry Promotion Program (EDIP) has been blocked for almost a year because the Council and the EU Parliament are arguing about "Made in Europe." France in particular is pushing for European taxpayers' money to be invested exclusively in European defense companies wherever possible. For Paris, EDIP, with its modest budget of EUR 1.5 billion, was seen as a test case for the larger sums that are now to be distributed. Countries such as Germany and Poland, on the other hand, have spoken out against a strict definition of "Buy European."
Additional arms purchases from US defense companies as an appeasement? At least that is what the EU Commission originally considered in view of the looming trade war with Donald Trump. However, in view of the signals from the new US administration, the momentum now seems to be on France's side. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is in favor of a gradual tightening of the "Buy European" criteria with regard to the new EUR 150 billion instrument.
The extent to which Europeans are actually dependent on the USA is disputed. The EU Commission relies on a French study according to which the member states have recently placed up to 80 percent of their arms orders outside the EU, most of them in the USA. A figure that signals an alarming dependency.
The figures are inaccurate, writes Guntram Wolff from the Brussels think tank Bruegel. A criticism that the expert reiterates in the interview and which is also shared in a study by the IISS. Wolff comes to the conclusion that, on the contrary, the majority of procurements were actually carried out in their own country and not even in other European countries. The different figures could have something to do with the fact that the controversial study is based on a small time window in which various EU states ordered F-35 fighter jets.
The conflict over "Buy European" is possibly a sham. One reason is that the US arms industry itself is struggling with capacity. In another Bruegel analysis, Wolff comes to the conclusion that it is unable to meet the additional demand from Europeans. The US arms industry is reaching its limits, and additional production may be prioritized to other customers. The F-35 fighter jets, for example, have recently only been delivered with massive delays, and the manufacturer that produces missiles for the patriot systems is also at the limits of its capacity and would hardly be able to meet a further increase in European demand.
In Berlin and Warsaw, however, there are signs of a U-turn: "Of course we also want Poland to build up and strengthen the European arms industry," says an employee of Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, who does not wish to be named. Poland has always sought proximity to the USA since the first free presidential election in 1990, but Trump's rapprochement with Moscow at the expense of Ukraine is causing outrage across the country. In order to close the biggest gaps as quickly as possible, however, it is "only possible with American weapons," the Defense Minister's employee conceded.
Germany has also bought a lot from the USA to date. Around a third of the Bundeswehr's special funds, amounting to EUR 100 billion, went to the USA; there was no clause prioritizing the European arms industry. Similarly, the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), initiated by Germany for the joint procurement of air defense systems, ended up benefiting the US arms industry to a large extent.
This could change under a government led by Friedrich Merz. The aim has long been to strengthen the European arms industry with production orders in order to keep up technologically with international competitors – particularly from the USA. Now, the idea of autonomy is being added to this, according to Union circles. Orders within Europe should be given priority in order to ensure the competitiveness of the European security and defense industry, to keep know-how and future technologies in Europe, and to provide economic impetus, says Florian Hahn, defense policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, to Table.Briefings. Above all, however, they make a decisive contribution to the security of Europe and NATO.
The Ministry of Defence also sees the need to prioritize European defence companies. At least in certain areas. Experts emphasize that regulations must also be relaxed in order to facilitate rapid production. The European defense industry is able and willing to further increase capacities and adapt to demand as soon as orders are received, writes the Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe (ASD) after last week's special summit. More than ever, it is clear that "Buy European" is a strategic necessity.