There is no crystal ball for predicting developments – but when it comes to the climate, some things are relatively clear: global warming will continue, the UN process will revolve around the fossil fuel phase-out, finance will be a key issue, and elections will change politics. An outlook for the coming year.
By Bernhard Pötter
The climate conference in Dubai ends with a "historic" consensus that, among other things, sets out the global fossil fuel phase-out. But this will only work if many people believe in it and join in. From now on, goodwill will be needed everywhere.
By Bernhard Pötter
The final text of COP28 does not mention the fossil fuels exit many countries had hoped for. However, the somewhat ambiguously worded sentence on "transitioning away from fossil fuels" is seen by many as a clear signal that the end of the fossil fuel era has been heralded.
By Lukas Knigge
Civil society and science representatives are cautiously optimistic about the outcome of COP28: The deal is a small step in the right direction. OPEC and the IEA are both satisfied. However, participants from the Global South feel left alone.
By Nico Beckert
The negotiations at COP28 are being blocked primarily by Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia. This has a long tradition: The oil kingdom and its allies have been slowing down progress on climate action for a long time. And they are also responsible for the agonizingly slow UN process.
By Bernhard Pötter
The least developed countries resort to a new, more flexible negotiating strategy at COP. Depending on their own interests, they join forces with the classic developed countries – or remain firmly rooted in the G77. This way, they counter past attempts by large countries to dominate them and do everything in their power to keep the 1.5-degree limit within reach.
By Goswami Urmi
The long-awaited text at the conclusions of COP28 triggered a storm of outrage: No fossil fuel phase-out, new coal possible, high monetary demands for adaptation – all red lines of frontrunner countries. Who or what has driven conference chair Al Jaber to present this paper?
By Bernhard Pötter
Recent data has shaken one of the foundations for the distribution of responsibility at the UN climate negotiations: Contrary to popular perception, developed countries and their historical emissions are no longer the main cause of global warming.
By Bernhard Pötter
There is no universally recognized definition of the term "abated fossil fuels." This complicates negotiations on phasing out fossil fuels or reducing their use, as each country can use its own definition. However, there are already scientific approximations.
By Lukas Knigge
The draft text for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) was finally published on the third-last day of COP28 and leaves many questions unanswered. Developing countries criticize the lack of benchmarks for progress and demand tangible financing. Much could be postponed until next year.
By Alexandra Endres
