Dear reader,
Ursula von der Leyen and her head of cabinet Björn Seibert are currently fine-tuning the new EU Commission’s work program; the document is due to be published before Christmas. However, the EPP does not want to wait for the result: The Christian Democrats are currently writing their own wish list for their party colleague von der Leyen, which is available to us in a (probably still very early) draft.
The list contains many points on the priorities of competitiveness and cutting red tape, plus some concerns on migration, the rule of law, and agriculture. For example, the Commission is to present a competitiveness strategy in the first 100 days, including a legal act “along the lines of the climate law”. This had set out the EU’s goal of becoming climate-neutral by 2050 and mapped out the way to achieve this.
The EPP also wants to speed up approval processes across all economic sectors with the help of a so-called omnibus directive. The Christian Democrats also want to incorporate the goal of reducing bureaucracy by a third by 2029 into legislation. A European online portal is to be set up for companies, in which all national and European reporting obligations can be bundled and companies can find out about financial resources.
The EPP would also like to see an early revision of the Emissions Trading System (ETS). Anyone who removes a ton of CO2 from the atmosphere, for example through capture technologies, should receive a certificate and be able to turn it into money in the ETS. The Commission has already held out the prospect of integrating negative emissions but does not intend to present it until 2026 as part of the review of the ETS, which is already required by law.
In this issue, Markus Grabitz tells you what plans the EPP has for the automotive industry. Have a good start to the day!
Feature
Fall of the government: Macron must act quickly
On what was considered a historic day in France, the motion of censure tabled by the left-wing opposition was passed by 331 votes – bringing down the government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier. At least 288 votes were needed to force the government to resign. As previously announced, the MPs of the Rassemblement National and UDR, the party of former republican Éric Ciotti, combined their votes with those of the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire to bring down the government.
The longer French President Emmanuel Macron waits to appoint a new prime minister, the louder the calls for his resignation are likely to become. The first successful vote of no confidence since 1962 was triggered by Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s austerity proposals. However, the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire are actually targeting the president.
The success of the vote of no confidence shows how precarious the situation has become for the forces of the relative political center: Left and right-wing extremists are now in a position to get a grip on Macron. The president plans to give a televised speech on Friday.
‘A recipe for instability’
Macron’s legitimacy is increasingly being called into question. The president is largely isolated politically. A large majority of French people hold him responsible for the political chaos after he called new elections at short notice last June. His popularity plummeted further when the deep budget deficit became apparent in September, which Barnier tried to get under control through cuts and tax increases. SPD foreign policy expert Nils Schmid also criticized: “Macron dissolved parliament without need and then installed a government by Le Pen’s grace – that is a recipe for instability.”
Barnier had hoped to secure the approval of the RN with concessions in the budget dispute. However, its leader Marine Le Pen refused and is now apparently going all out: Her aim is to force the resignation of President Macron, says Eric Maurice, EU expert at the European Policy Center (EPC) think tank. “And Marine Le Pen will bring down the next government as quickly as possible.”
She also has her own problem in mind: She wants to hold new elections before a court puts a spoke in her wheel. Le Pen is facing a prison sentence for alleged embezzlement of EU funds and exclusion from elections for five years. The verdict is expected at the end of March.
Macron staged himself as a bulwark against the far-right
The political power that Le Pen now has is a major defeat for Macron, who presented himself as a bulwark against the far-right during the election campaigns. In fact, the RN has never been as influential as during the French president’s second term in office.
It is not only Macron’s presidency that is clearly in tatters, France’s influence at EU level has also been weakened. On the German side, there is concern about France’s political instability. Germany has a great interest in close and stable relations with France, MEP Andreas Schwab (EPP) told Table.Briefings. He points out that the capital markets have already reacted to the political turbulence.
Now the ball is back in Macron’s court. Eric Maurice from the EPC assumes that a new prime minister will be appointed before the next EU summit on Dec. 19 and 20 in order to reassure the financial markets and partners in the eurozone.
- Emmanuel Macron
- EU-Gipfel
- France
Translation missing.
EPP paper: Commission should withdraw ban on combustion engines in the first 100 days
The Christian Democrats are calling on the Commission to withdraw the ban on combustion engines within the first hundred days of the Clean Industrial Deal. The Commission should also help to avert the expected fines for manufacturers for failing to meet the fleet limits in 2025. These demands are listed in a draft EPP position paper, which the group intends to vote on on Tuesday. Jens Gieseke (CDU) drafted the paper on behalf of EPP leader Manfred Weber. It is available to Table.Briefings.
The position paper entitled “Securing the Competitiveness of the European Automotive Industry” calls for legislators to create the conditions for technological neutrality. The legislation has violated this principle by banning the sale of new combustion engines from 2035. The approach of only measuring emissions at the tailpipe has also unfairly privileged battery electric vehicles. The Commission must therefore “urgently” review the CO2 fleet legislation.
However, the new Vice-President of the EU Commission, Teresa Ribera, only ruled out the withdrawal of the ban on combustion engines on Tuesday. “The European Commission is not considering this, and I would say that practically nobody is considering it,” said the Spaniard. However, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (CDU), who wants to convene a strategic dialog on the future of the car industry, is likely to have the final say.
Target of climate neutrality by 2050 remains
Gieseke argues that a mix of technologies must be permitted. It is about recognizing the role of alternative fuels, including e-fuels, biofuels, renewable and synthetic fuels. Exceptions must be made for their use. A carbon correction factor must also be introduced. This would allow the proportion of fossil fuels to be reduced. The goal remains to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
The review of the regulation on the CO2 fleet limits for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with values for 2025, 2030 and 2035 should be brought forward to 2025. The fleet limits should be revised downwards. The CO2 fleet limits for heavy commercial vehicles and trailers are too strict and must be corrected by the end of 2026 at the latest, according to the paper.
How fines can be avoided
Penalties for manufacturers for failing to meet climate targets for new cars (passenger cars and light commercial vehicles) from 2025 onwards must be avoided. It would be conceivable to postpone the CO2 fleet limits of 93 grams per kilometer driven on average from 2025 to 2027. It is also conceivable to allow the parking or offsetting of parts of vehicle sales, to switch from an annual view to a three-year period, or to temporarily record the vehicles produced rather than the new registrations.
Alternative fuels are to be used to decarbonize existing fleets. The Commission should ensure a reliable calculation of emissions over the entire life cycle of a vehicle (life cycle assessment) by 2025 at the latest and incorporate this into legislation. The paper notes that legislators have been calling on the Commission to do this since 2019.
To speed up the expansion of the public charging and refueling infrastructure for CO2-neutral energy, bureaucracy in the approval process is to be reduced and funding programs launched.
Stricter AFIR targets
In the review of the AFIR (Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation), the targets need to be tightened, especially in the area of heavy commercial vehicles. Trade agreements with India, Indonesia, Australia, Mexico, and Mercosur are to be signed. Talks with new trading partners, for example in the ASEAN region, are to begin.
Direct subsidies are to support research and development in the automotive sector, particularly in the areas of AI, autonomous driving, and alternative fuels. Regions particularly affected by the transformation are to receive EU funds, and the state aid rules are to be changed for this purpose. Automotive IPCEIs are welcome and the bureaucratic requirements for the procedures need to be streamlined.
Access to in-vehicle data under the Data Act must be regulated. In order to stimulate demand, member states should provide purchase incentives, reduce VAT, or subsidize leasing. The entire car-related legislation should be subjected to a stress test with regard to bureaucracy.
- Flottengrenzwerte
- Manfred Weber
- Transformation
Translation missing.
News
Defense and energy: Polish Council Presidency calls for larger budget
The Polish Council Presidency will insist on a significantly stronger EU budget in the coming six months, in particular to finance defense spending. This was announced by Paweł Karbownik, Undersecretary of State in the Polish Ministry of Finance. He found clear words yesterday, Wednesday. The EU must spend significantly more in order to get to grips with the problems in the European energy market and Europe’s defense.
While EU Council presidencies are traditionally diplomatic and reserved, Karbownik made it clear at the Polish Permanent Representation in Brussels that Poland was working towards a larger EU budget.
One trillion euros for defense
Based on the €800 billion in additional annual EU investments required according to the Draghi report, a maximum of €300 billion could come from private funds, said Karbownik. The remaining €500 billion would have to come from the public sector. He also criticized the EU debt rules, which stipulate a consolidation course for the coming years despite major security and economic policy challenges. This is “pure economic and political nonsense”, said Karbownik. In order to tackle the financing problems, a “serious integration boost” is needed.
The Polish Ministry of Finance intends to focus on defense financing and energy policy in the coming six months. With regard to defense financing, the Polish government has “concrete proposals” that it is currently discussing with some EU capitals. “I am sure that defense funding will happen,” said Karbownik in Brussels.
The Undersecretary of State, who worked as an advisor to Donald Tusk in the European Council from 2014 to 2019, also gave an order of magnitude that he would like to see for the defense fund. “If we are talking about a period of ten years, then we can pretty much assume that we will need a fund of around one trillion euros to purchase weapons, build up our industry, and prepare for the worst-case scenario.”
Reports on defense financing and energy policy
He also announced that Guntram Wolff, former director of DGAP and the think tank Bruegel, would write a report on this topic for the Polish Council Presidency. In a previously published report, Wolff argued that a European strategy for the defense industry would require more national and European debt.
The Polish presidency also wants to make progress in the energy market. At a macroeconomic level, this is the biggest challenge, said Karbownik. With Alfred Kammer, the European head of the IMF, the Polish government has asked a second German for a report. Kammer is to present his paper with proposals to the finance ministers as early as January, said Karbownik.
Serafin: ‘Poland understands the situation best’
The new Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin also made an appearance in Brussels on Thursday. Although he was not as specific as Karbownik, he made it clear that until recently he himself had been intensively involved in the preparations for the Polish Council Presidency as Permanent Representative.
“It could be the most difficult six months in decades,” said Serafin in view of the economic crisis, the looming trade conflict with the USA, the war in Ukraine, and political instability in Europe. “We should invest more in defense,” he also said. “Poland understands the situation best.” jaa
NATO allies consider scenarios for ceasefire in Ukraine
The slogans of perseverance remain, but the NATO allies are talking with increasing openness about possible modalities of a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia. At the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte found it difficult to take countermeasures and focus on the need for further arms deliveries to Ukraine. Following the meeting, he indirectly rejected public speculation about a ceasefire in Ukraine. The allies would have to provide sufficient support to change the course of the war once and for all. It was now a matter of ensuring that Ukraine was in a strong position if peace negotiations were to take place.
The fact that Donald Trump’s comeback is imminent became clear once again at the farewell ceremony for US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The farewell is accompanied by fears that Trump could withdraw his support from Ukraine as soon as he takes office in January and force Kyiv to the negotiating table. Rutte emphasized that the approximately €50 billion from the USA and the Europeans from the frozen Russian state bank funds would last until the autumn of next year. As long as Putin has the impression that he is winning, the Russian president will not be prepared to negotiate anyway, diplomats warned on the sidelines of the meeting.
Show Trump that Europe is taking responsibility
Discussions between allies revolve around negotiation scenarios and possible security guarantees. The model of arming Ukraine in a similar way to Israel and thus deterring Moscow from further attacks would be expensive and politically unrealistic. The talks focused more on a robust protection force that would have to secure a demilitarized zone along the front line and patrol it.
The European allies would be called upon first and foremost. Also to demonstrate to President Trump that they are prepared to take responsibility, diplomats said. However, there is also talk of contingents from the Arab world or China. The demand by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for security guarantees from the allies for the areas controlled by the Ukrainian armed forces is a delicate matter for NATO. The invitation to join the alliance would also have to be part of a package and include Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders. sti
ETS II: EU determines credit quantity for transport and buildings
On Tuesday, the EU Commission specified the starting quantity of carbon credits in the new emissions trading system for buildings and transport (ETS II): Around one billion tons of carbon credits will be issued in 2027. An additional 300 million tons will be frontloaded to guarantee a liquid market. However, these will be deducted from the quantities for subsequent years and will therefore not increase the total quantity.
It is based on a linear path for the emissions targets in 2030; the annual credit quantity will be reduced accordingly. Under certain circumstances, an additional reserve of 600 million credits can be added to the market in order to stabilize the carbon price. Particularly at the beginning of the trading phase, higher fluctuations could occur. “The initial, actual CO2 prices depend above all on how companies assess this market, what price expectations they have, and to what extent they stock up on allowances for the future,” explains Wilfried Rickels, Head of the Global Commons and Climate Policy Research Center at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Previous studies have calculated a price of up to 200 to 300 euros per ton of CO2 for 2030 – however, there is a “considerable spread in the prices,” says Rickels, as the studies refer to the avoidance costs of CO2 emissions and the starting credit quantity was previously unknown. lb
Europe at risk of missing emissions targets for 2030 by 29 percent
According to an analysis by BloombergNEF, Europe could exceed its energy-related CO2 emissions cap for 2030 by nine percent. If other greenhouse gas emissions from other sectors are taken into account, the overshoot could be as high as 29% (702 million tons of CO2 equivalent) – that would mean only 42% lower emissions by 2030 instead of the target of minus 55%.
The reasons for the misconduct are:
- Slow electrification, for example with heat pumps, electric vehicles and expansion of the electricity grid.
- Low investment in renewable energies, grid infrastructure and CCS.
- Technological gaps: Key technologies such as hydrogen production and sustainable fuels for aviation and shipping are neither mature nor economical.
According to the Bloomberg analysts, the EU is therefore also far behind the requirements of a net-zero pathway by 2050. Energy-related emissions would have to fall by 84% to just half a gigaton of CO2 by 2040 for the EU to remain on track for climate neutrality by 2050.
According to Bloomberg’s Net-Zero scenario, in which the energy industry is completely decarbonized by 2050, investments in renewable energies must also increase by 23% compared to 2023. In addition, spending on the sale of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure must triple. luk
Shein and Temu: How the EU wants to tackle the flood of parcels
The EU Commission is preparing stricter regulation of parcel shipments from Asian online stores such as Temu and Shein. According to the Financial Times, a new tax on the revenue of e-commerce platforms and an administration fee for shipping items are being discussed given the flood of parcels. The abolition of the duty-free limit is also being discussed to relieve the burden on customs authorities. The newspaper cites five anonymous sources who are familiar with the discussions.
The aim is to reduce the distortion of competition for European retailers and the import of dangerous products. According to EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, around four billion low-value parcels will be imported into the EU this year – almost three times as many as in 2022.
EuroCommerce, an association representing European retailers, welcomed the plans in principle but warned that an administrative fee would be difficult to reconcile with the rules of the World Trade Organization. Instead, the EU should enforce existing regulations more strongly, EuroCommerce said, instead of discussing new regulations that may not come into force for years. mcl
Obermann: Quantum computing a candidate for Airbus 2.0
According to René Obermann, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Airbus, Europe can produce world-leading companies in several future technologies. “I believe it is wise for us to focus on the high technologies where we are still at the forefront and can stay there. Keyword quantum technologies, where we are one of the top five in the world – whether that’s quantum computing, quantum communication or quantum sensor technology,” said Obermann on Thursday in the Table.Briefings podcast
When asked about possible European champions along the lines of Airbus, the former Telekom manager named two other future fields: Biotechnology and nuclear fusion. Europe also has opportunities in artificial intelligence. “When it comes to AI, we have some really good young companies in Germany and Europe. We just have to make sure that they stay in Germany and Europe,” said Obermann, citing Black Forest Labs and Mistral from France as examples.
‘Can still win in many AI applications’
Artificial intelligence is in the process of conquering more and more areas of application. “Whether in medicine or production. There are AI areas everywhere that are now being adopted very specifically in the economy. And we still have a lot to gain in many areas.”
Obermann, on the other hand, believes that cloud computing is lost ground. “We can build up a part in Europe and we can also become a little less dependent on Amazon, Microsoft, and co. But it makes no sense to try to win against Microsoft here. We have to focus on the new technologies.” ber
Suspicion of money laundering: Investigation against Reynders
Shortly after his departure as EU Commissioner for Justice, Didier Reynders is under investigation on suspicion of money laundering. This was confirmed by the Public Prosecutor General’s Office in Brussels. The authority would not provide further details. The Belgian politician did not initially respond to dpa inquiries.
The investigative media platform Follow The Money and the Belgian newspaper Le Soir had previously reported that several homes had been searched and Reynders had been questioned by the police. He is said to have bought “e-tickets” – vouchers worth between 1 and 100 euros – at sales outlets, which can be transferred to an account held with the National Lottery. Some of these lottery tickets were allegedly purchased in cash and the winnings were paid into Reynders’ digital account with the National Lottery. They were then transferred to his current account. It is unclear where Reynders got the money for the tickets. There was also initially no information on the specific sums involved.
Reynders was responsible for the rule of law
A spokesperson for the EU Commission stated that the authority had no further information on the matter. “Should the Belgian authorities contact us, we will of course cooperate with them.”
Reynders was EU Justice Commissioner in the cabinet of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen from 2019 to 2024 and was also responsible for the rule of law. The Belgian was previously Belgian Finance Minister from 1999 to 2011 and Foreign Minister from 2011 to 2019. dpa
Opinion
If the European elections were this Sunday: S&D falls back, PfE gains
2024 was – once again – not an easy year for European social democracy. In the European elections, the S&D Group achieved its worst result ever and lost the option of forming center-left majorities in the European Parliament without the European People’s Party. At national level, the Social Democrats lost the Portuguese parliamentary elections in March, were unable to translate their election success in France in July into government participation, and experienced the failure of the German traffic light coalition in November.
Although the social democratic PSD defended first place in the Romanian parliamentary elections last Sunday, it fell far short of expectations. The German and Swedish Social Democrats have also recently slipped in the polls. In the last seat projection of the year, the S&D Group therefore falls back significantly once again. They would currently only achieve 131 seats in the baseline scenario – five fewer than in the European elections and the projection in October.
In contrast, there was little change in the EPP, which is increasingly dominating European politics as the largest and indispensable group for forming a majority in Parliament. EPP member parties made slight gains in Germany and Slovakia, among others. By contrast, the Spanish PP, which is being blamed for the delayed reaction of the Valencian regional government following the flood disaster in Valencia at the end of October, suffered losses in the polls. The EPP member party FG also performed somewhat weaker than expected in the Irish parliamentary elections last Saturday. Overall, however, the EPP remains unchallenged in first place with 186 seats (unchanged from October).
The liberal Renew Group – the third partner in the coalition agreement alongside the EPP and S&D, which paved the way for the new EU Commission two weeks ago – made significant gains. Thanks in part to the election victory of the FF in Ireland, it has improved to 83 seats (+4) in the projection. However, the Slovenian governing party GS has once again suffered losses in the polls; in Germany, the FDP has been heavily criticized since the D-Day affair. In France, the opposition has brought down the liberal-conservative government, leaving President Emmanuel Macron increasingly politically isolated. This development also signals a challenging year ahead for European liberals in 2025.
S&D, Renew, Greens, and Left would not reach 300 seats
For the Greens/EFA group, the results of the last eight weeks have been mixed(41 seats/±0): While the Greens have made gains in the polls in Germany since the end of the traffic light coalition and are only just behind the Social Democrats in second place in Denmark, the Belgian Ecolo and the Czech Piráti are doing slightly worse.
The left-wing group, on the other hand, is benefiting from the good performance of Sinn Féin in Ireland but is losing support in Greece in particular, where the former governing party Syriza is only a shadow of its former self following numerous internal disputes. The bottom line is that the left still has 43 seats in the projection (-1). Due to the losses of the Social Democrats and the Left, the center-left camp as a whole also slips to a new all-time low: For the first time, the S&D, Renew, Greens, and Left would not even manage 300 seats together in the projection.
Fidesz on the decline in Hungary
On the other hand, the far-right camp has once again made gains. Thanks to gains in Spain, the Czech Republic, and Greece, the PfE Group reaches the symbolic 100-seat mark (+4) for the first time in the projection. However, the Hungarian governing party Fidesz is in decline and is now only in second place behind EPP member TISZA in some polls.
For the ECR group, the Romanian AUR was able to slightly outperform its already strong poll ratings in the national parliamentary elections. However, this was offset by losses in Latvia and Croatia, meaning that the ECR performed slightly weaker overall than in October (73 seats/-1). Finally, in the smallest far-right group ESN, slight losses in the Czech Republic are offset by slight gains in Germany and Poland (27 seats/+1).
The far right becomes politically influential thanks to the EPP
Taken together, the three far-right groups would reach 200 seats in the European Parliament for the first time: a new record high, but still far from a majority of their own. The far-right camp is only becoming politically influential because the EPP Group has been increasingly willing to push through decisions together with the ECR and PfE since the European elections. So far, this so-called “Venezuela majority” is still dependent on the support of the ESN Group. In the projection, however, a right-wing alliance of EPP, ECR, and PfE would now be very close to a majority even without ESN.
The non-attached parties are performing significantly weaker than in October, with the German BSW and the Slovakian governing party SMER in particular recently falling back in the polls (24 seats/-5). On the other hand, the “other” parties, which are not represented in the European Parliament and cannot be clearly assigned to a political group, made slight gains (12 seats/+3).
As there are no pan-European election polls, the seat projection is based on aggregated national polls and election results from all member states. In the baseline scenario, all national parties are assigned to their current parliamentary group (or the parliamentary group of their European umbrella party); parties without a clear assignment are shown as “other”.
The dynamic scenario assigns all “other” parties to a parliamentary group that they could plausibly join and also takes into account possible future changes in parliamentary groups of parties already represented in parliament. The far-right parties PfE and ECR would probably benefit the most from these new additions, which is why they perform slightly better in the dynamic scenario. A more detailed breakdown of the projection as well as information on the data basis and methodology can be found on the blog “The (European) Federalist“.
- Emmanuel Macron
- Europäisches Parlament
- EVP
- Greens/EFA
- Renew
- S&D
Europe.Table Editorial Team
EUROPE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE
Dear reader,
Ursula von der Leyen and her head of cabinet Björn Seibert are currently fine-tuning the new EU Commission’s work program; the document is due to be published before Christmas. However, the EPP does not want to wait for the result: The Christian Democrats are currently writing their own wish list for their party colleague von der Leyen, which is available to us in a (probably still very early) draft.
The list contains many points on the priorities of competitiveness and cutting red tape, plus some concerns on migration, the rule of law, and agriculture. For example, the Commission is to present a competitiveness strategy in the first 100 days, including a legal act “along the lines of the climate law”. This had set out the EU’s goal of becoming climate-neutral by 2050 and mapped out the way to achieve this.
The EPP also wants to speed up approval processes across all economic sectors with the help of a so-called omnibus directive. The Christian Democrats also want to incorporate the goal of reducing bureaucracy by a third by 2029 into legislation. A European online portal is to be set up for companies, in which all national and European reporting obligations can be bundled and companies can find out about financial resources.
The EPP would also like to see an early revision of the Emissions Trading System (ETS). Anyone who removes a ton of CO2 from the atmosphere, for example through capture technologies, should receive a certificate and be able to turn it into money in the ETS. The Commission has already held out the prospect of integrating negative emissions but does not intend to present it until 2026 as part of the review of the ETS, which is already required by law.
In this issue, Markus Grabitz tells you what plans the EPP has for the automotive industry. Have a good start to the day!
Feature
Fall of the government: Macron must act quickly
On what was considered a historic day in France, the motion of censure tabled by the left-wing opposition was passed by 331 votes – bringing down the government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier. At least 288 votes were needed to force the government to resign. As previously announced, the MPs of the Rassemblement National and UDR, the party of former republican Éric Ciotti, combined their votes with those of the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire to bring down the government.
The longer French President Emmanuel Macron waits to appoint a new prime minister, the louder the calls for his resignation are likely to become. The first successful vote of no confidence since 1962 was triggered by Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s austerity proposals. However, the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire are actually targeting the president.
The success of the vote of no confidence shows how precarious the situation has become for the forces of the relative political center: Left and right-wing extremists are now in a position to get a grip on Macron. The president plans to give a televised speech on Friday.
‘A recipe for instability’
Macron’s legitimacy is increasingly being called into question. The president is largely isolated politically. A large majority of French people hold him responsible for the political chaos after he called new elections at short notice last June. His popularity plummeted further when the deep budget deficit became apparent in September, which Barnier tried to get under control through cuts and tax increases. SPD foreign policy expert Nils Schmid also criticized: “Macron dissolved parliament without need and then installed a government by Le Pen’s grace – that is a recipe for instability.”
Barnier had hoped to secure the approval of the RN with concessions in the budget dispute. However, its leader Marine Le Pen refused and is now apparently going all out: Her aim is to force the resignation of President Macron, says Eric Maurice, EU expert at the European Policy Center (EPC) think tank. “And Marine Le Pen will bring down the next government as quickly as possible.”
She also has her own problem in mind: She wants to hold new elections before a court puts a spoke in her wheel. Le Pen is facing a prison sentence for alleged embezzlement of EU funds and exclusion from elections for five years. The verdict is expected at the end of March.
Macron staged himself as a bulwark against the far-right
The political power that Le Pen now has is a major defeat for Macron, who presented himself as a bulwark against the far-right during the election campaigns. In fact, the RN has never been as influential as during the French president’s second term in office.
It is not only Macron’s presidency that is clearly in tatters, France’s influence at EU level has also been weakened. On the German side, there is concern about France’s political instability. Germany has a great interest in close and stable relations with France, MEP Andreas Schwab (EPP) told Table.Briefings. He points out that the capital markets have already reacted to the political turbulence.
Now the ball is back in Macron’s court. Eric Maurice from the EPC assumes that a new prime minister will be appointed before the next EU summit on Dec. 19 and 20 in order to reassure the financial markets and partners in the eurozone.
- Emmanuel Macron
- EU-Gipfel
- France
Translation missing.
EPP paper: Commission should withdraw ban on combustion engines in the first 100 days
The Christian Democrats are calling on the Commission to withdraw the ban on combustion engines within the first hundred days of the Clean Industrial Deal. The Commission should also help to avert the expected fines for manufacturers for failing to meet the fleet limits in 2025. These demands are listed in a draft EPP position paper, which the group intends to vote on on Tuesday. Jens Gieseke (CDU) drafted the paper on behalf of EPP leader Manfred Weber. It is available to Table.Briefings.
The position paper entitled “Securing the Competitiveness of the European Automotive Industry” calls for legislators to create the conditions for technological neutrality. The legislation has violated this principle by banning the sale of new combustion engines from 2035. The approach of only measuring emissions at the tailpipe has also unfairly privileged battery electric vehicles. The Commission must therefore “urgently” review the CO2 fleet legislation.
However, the new Vice-President of the EU Commission, Teresa Ribera, only ruled out the withdrawal of the ban on combustion engines on Tuesday. “The European Commission is not considering this, and I would say that practically nobody is considering it,” said the Spaniard. However, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (CDU), who wants to convene a strategic dialog on the future of the car industry, is likely to have the final say.
Target of climate neutrality by 2050 remains
Gieseke argues that a mix of technologies must be permitted. It is about recognizing the role of alternative fuels, including e-fuels, biofuels, renewable and synthetic fuels. Exceptions must be made for their use. A carbon correction factor must also be introduced. This would allow the proportion of fossil fuels to be reduced. The goal remains to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
The review of the regulation on the CO2 fleet limits for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with values for 2025, 2030 and 2035 should be brought forward to 2025. The fleet limits should be revised downwards. The CO2 fleet limits for heavy commercial vehicles and trailers are too strict and must be corrected by the end of 2026 at the latest, according to the paper.
How fines can be avoided
Penalties for manufacturers for failing to meet climate targets for new cars (passenger cars and light commercial vehicles) from 2025 onwards must be avoided. It would be conceivable to postpone the CO2 fleet limits of 93 grams per kilometer driven on average from 2025 to 2027. It is also conceivable to allow the parking or offsetting of parts of vehicle sales, to switch from an annual view to a three-year period, or to temporarily record the vehicles produced rather than the new registrations.
Alternative fuels are to be used to decarbonize existing fleets. The Commission should ensure a reliable calculation of emissions over the entire life cycle of a vehicle (life cycle assessment) by 2025 at the latest and incorporate this into legislation. The paper notes that legislators have been calling on the Commission to do this since 2019.
To speed up the expansion of the public charging and refueling infrastructure for CO2-neutral energy, bureaucracy in the approval process is to be reduced and funding programs launched.
Stricter AFIR targets
In the review of the AFIR (Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation), the targets need to be tightened, especially in the area of heavy commercial vehicles. Trade agreements with India, Indonesia, Australia, Mexico, and Mercosur are to be signed. Talks with new trading partners, for example in the ASEAN region, are to begin.
Direct subsidies are to support research and development in the automotive sector, particularly in the areas of AI, autonomous driving, and alternative fuels. Regions particularly affected by the transformation are to receive EU funds, and the state aid rules are to be changed for this purpose. Automotive IPCEIs are welcome and the bureaucratic requirements for the procedures need to be streamlined.
Access to in-vehicle data under the Data Act must be regulated. In order to stimulate demand, member states should provide purchase incentives, reduce VAT, or subsidize leasing. The entire car-related legislation should be subjected to a stress test with regard to bureaucracy.
- Flottengrenzwerte
- Manfred Weber
- Transformation
Translation missing.
News
Defense and energy: Polish Council Presidency calls for larger budget
The Polish Council Presidency will insist on a significantly stronger EU budget in the coming six months, in particular to finance defense spending. This was announced by Paweł Karbownik, Undersecretary of State in the Polish Ministry of Finance. He found clear words yesterday, Wednesday. The EU must spend significantly more in order to get to grips with the problems in the European energy market and Europe’s defense.
While EU Council presidencies are traditionally diplomatic and reserved, Karbownik made it clear at the Polish Permanent Representation in Brussels that Poland was working towards a larger EU budget.
One trillion euros for defense
Based on the €800 billion in additional annual EU investments required according to the Draghi report, a maximum of €300 billion could come from private funds, said Karbownik. The remaining €500 billion would have to come from the public sector. He also criticized the EU debt rules, which stipulate a consolidation course for the coming years despite major security and economic policy challenges. This is “pure economic and political nonsense”, said Karbownik. In order to tackle the financing problems, a “serious integration boost” is needed.
The Polish Ministry of Finance intends to focus on defense financing and energy policy in the coming six months. With regard to defense financing, the Polish government has “concrete proposals” that it is currently discussing with some EU capitals. “I am sure that defense funding will happen,” said Karbownik in Brussels.
The Undersecretary of State, who worked as an advisor to Donald Tusk in the European Council from 2014 to 2019, also gave an order of magnitude that he would like to see for the defense fund. “If we are talking about a period of ten years, then we can pretty much assume that we will need a fund of around one trillion euros to purchase weapons, build up our industry, and prepare for the worst-case scenario.”
Reports on defense financing and energy policy
He also announced that Guntram Wolff, former director of DGAP and the think tank Bruegel, would write a report on this topic for the Polish Council Presidency. In a previously published report, Wolff argued that a European strategy for the defense industry would require more national and European debt.
The Polish presidency also wants to make progress in the energy market. At a macroeconomic level, this is the biggest challenge, said Karbownik. With Alfred Kammer, the European head of the IMF, the Polish government has asked a second German for a report. Kammer is to present his paper with proposals to the finance ministers as early as January, said Karbownik.
Serafin: ‘Poland understands the situation best’
The new Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin also made an appearance in Brussels on Thursday. Although he was not as specific as Karbownik, he made it clear that until recently he himself had been intensively involved in the preparations for the Polish Council Presidency as Permanent Representative.
“It could be the most difficult six months in decades,” said Serafin in view of the economic crisis, the looming trade conflict with the USA, the war in Ukraine, and political instability in Europe. “We should invest more in defense,” he also said. “Poland understands the situation best.” jaa
NATO allies consider scenarios for ceasefire in Ukraine
The slogans of perseverance remain, but the NATO allies are talking with increasing openness about possible modalities of a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia. At the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte found it difficult to take countermeasures and focus on the need for further arms deliveries to Ukraine. Following the meeting, he indirectly rejected public speculation about a ceasefire in Ukraine. The allies would have to provide sufficient support to change the course of the war once and for all. It was now a matter of ensuring that Ukraine was in a strong position if peace negotiations were to take place.
The fact that Donald Trump’s comeback is imminent became clear once again at the farewell ceremony for US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The farewell is accompanied by fears that Trump could withdraw his support from Ukraine as soon as he takes office in January and force Kyiv to the negotiating table. Rutte emphasized that the approximately €50 billion from the USA and the Europeans from the frozen Russian state bank funds would last until the autumn of next year. As long as Putin has the impression that he is winning, the Russian president will not be prepared to negotiate anyway, diplomats warned on the sidelines of the meeting.
Show Trump that Europe is taking responsibility
Discussions between allies revolve around negotiation scenarios and possible security guarantees. The model of arming Ukraine in a similar way to Israel and thus deterring Moscow from further attacks would be expensive and politically unrealistic. The talks focused more on a robust protection force that would have to secure a demilitarized zone along the front line and patrol it.
The European allies would be called upon first and foremost. Also to demonstrate to President Trump that they are prepared to take responsibility, diplomats said. However, there is also talk of contingents from the Arab world or China. The demand by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for security guarantees from the allies for the areas controlled by the Ukrainian armed forces is a delicate matter for NATO. The invitation to join the alliance would also have to be part of a package and include Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders. sti
ETS II: EU determines credit quantity for transport and buildings
On Tuesday, the EU Commission specified the starting quantity of carbon credits in the new emissions trading system for buildings and transport (ETS II): Around one billion tons of carbon credits will be issued in 2027. An additional 300 million tons will be frontloaded to guarantee a liquid market. However, these will be deducted from the quantities for subsequent years and will therefore not increase the total quantity.
It is based on a linear path for the emissions targets in 2030; the annual credit quantity will be reduced accordingly. Under certain circumstances, an additional reserve of 600 million credits can be added to the market in order to stabilize the carbon price. Particularly at the beginning of the trading phase, higher fluctuations could occur. “The initial, actual CO2 prices depend above all on how companies assess this market, what price expectations they have, and to what extent they stock up on allowances for the future,” explains Wilfried Rickels, Head of the Global Commons and Climate Policy Research Center at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Previous studies have calculated a price of up to 200 to 300 euros per ton of CO2 for 2030 – however, there is a “considerable spread in the prices,” says Rickels, as the studies refer to the avoidance costs of CO2 emissions and the starting credit quantity was previously unknown. lb
Europe at risk of missing emissions targets for 2030 by 29 percent
According to an analysis by BloombergNEF, Europe could exceed its energy-related CO2 emissions cap for 2030 by nine percent. If other greenhouse gas emissions from other sectors are taken into account, the overshoot could be as high as 29% (702 million tons of CO2 equivalent) – that would mean only 42% lower emissions by 2030 instead of the target of minus 55%.
The reasons for the misconduct are:
- Slow electrification, for example with heat pumps, electric vehicles and expansion of the electricity grid.
- Low investment in renewable energies, grid infrastructure and CCS.
- Technological gaps: Key technologies such as hydrogen production and sustainable fuels for aviation and shipping are neither mature nor economical.
According to the Bloomberg analysts, the EU is therefore also far behind the requirements of a net-zero pathway by 2050. Energy-related emissions would have to fall by 84% to just half a gigaton of CO2 by 2040 for the EU to remain on track for climate neutrality by 2050.
According to Bloomberg’s Net-Zero scenario, in which the energy industry is completely decarbonized by 2050, investments in renewable energies must also increase by 23% compared to 2023. In addition, spending on the sale of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure must triple. luk
Shein and Temu: How the EU wants to tackle the flood of parcels
The EU Commission is preparing stricter regulation of parcel shipments from Asian online stores such as Temu and Shein. According to the Financial Times, a new tax on the revenue of e-commerce platforms and an administration fee for shipping items are being discussed given the flood of parcels. The abolition of the duty-free limit is also being discussed to relieve the burden on customs authorities. The newspaper cites five anonymous sources who are familiar with the discussions.
The aim is to reduce the distortion of competition for European retailers and the import of dangerous products. According to EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, around four billion low-value parcels will be imported into the EU this year – almost three times as many as in 2022.
EuroCommerce, an association representing European retailers, welcomed the plans in principle but warned that an administrative fee would be difficult to reconcile with the rules of the World Trade Organization. Instead, the EU should enforce existing regulations more strongly, EuroCommerce said, instead of discussing new regulations that may not come into force for years. mcl
Obermann: Quantum computing a candidate for Airbus 2.0
According to René Obermann, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Airbus, Europe can produce world-leading companies in several future technologies. “I believe it is wise for us to focus on the high technologies where we are still at the forefront and can stay there. Keyword quantum technologies, where we are one of the top five in the world – whether that’s quantum computing, quantum communication or quantum sensor technology,” said Obermann on Thursday in the Table.Briefings podcast
When asked about possible European champions along the lines of Airbus, the former Telekom manager named two other future fields: Biotechnology and nuclear fusion. Europe also has opportunities in artificial intelligence. “When it comes to AI, we have some really good young companies in Germany and Europe. We just have to make sure that they stay in Germany and Europe,” said Obermann, citing Black Forest Labs and Mistral from France as examples.
‘Can still win in many AI applications’
Artificial intelligence is in the process of conquering more and more areas of application. “Whether in medicine or production. There are AI areas everywhere that are now being adopted very specifically in the economy. And we still have a lot to gain in many areas.”
Obermann, on the other hand, believes that cloud computing is lost ground. “We can build up a part in Europe and we can also become a little less dependent on Amazon, Microsoft, and co. But it makes no sense to try to win against Microsoft here. We have to focus on the new technologies.” ber
Suspicion of money laundering: Investigation against Reynders
Shortly after his departure as EU Commissioner for Justice, Didier Reynders is under investigation on suspicion of money laundering. This was confirmed by the Public Prosecutor General’s Office in Brussels. The authority would not provide further details. The Belgian politician did not initially respond to dpa inquiries.
The investigative media platform Follow The Money and the Belgian newspaper Le Soir had previously reported that several homes had been searched and Reynders had been questioned by the police. He is said to have bought “e-tickets” – vouchers worth between 1 and 100 euros – at sales outlets, which can be transferred to an account held with the National Lottery. Some of these lottery tickets were allegedly purchased in cash and the winnings were paid into Reynders’ digital account with the National Lottery. They were then transferred to his current account. It is unclear where Reynders got the money for the tickets. There was also initially no information on the specific sums involved.
Reynders was responsible for the rule of law
A spokesperson for the EU Commission stated that the authority had no further information on the matter. “Should the Belgian authorities contact us, we will of course cooperate with them.”
Reynders was EU Justice Commissioner in the cabinet of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen from 2019 to 2024 and was also responsible for the rule of law. The Belgian was previously Belgian Finance Minister from 1999 to 2011 and Foreign Minister from 2011 to 2019. dpa
Opinion
If the European elections were this Sunday: S&D falls back, PfE gains
2024 was – once again – not an easy year for European social democracy. In the European elections, the S&D Group achieved its worst result ever and lost the option of forming center-left majorities in the European Parliament without the European People’s Party. At national level, the Social Democrats lost the Portuguese parliamentary elections in March, were unable to translate their election success in France in July into government participation, and experienced the failure of the German traffic light coalition in November.
Although the social democratic PSD defended first place in the Romanian parliamentary elections last Sunday, it fell far short of expectations. The German and Swedish Social Democrats have also recently slipped in the polls. In the last seat projection of the year, the S&D Group therefore falls back significantly once again. They would currently only achieve 131 seats in the baseline scenario – five fewer than in the European elections and the projection in October.
In contrast, there was little change in the EPP, which is increasingly dominating European politics as the largest and indispensable group for forming a majority in Parliament. EPP member parties made slight gains in Germany and Slovakia, among others. By contrast, the Spanish PP, which is being blamed for the delayed reaction of the Valencian regional government following the flood disaster in Valencia at the end of October, suffered losses in the polls. The EPP member party FG also performed somewhat weaker than expected in the Irish parliamentary elections last Saturday. Overall, however, the EPP remains unchallenged in first place with 186 seats (unchanged from October).
The liberal Renew Group – the third partner in the coalition agreement alongside the EPP and S&D, which paved the way for the new EU Commission two weeks ago – made significant gains. Thanks in part to the election victory of the FF in Ireland, it has improved to 83 seats (+4) in the projection. However, the Slovenian governing party GS has once again suffered losses in the polls; in Germany, the FDP has been heavily criticized since the D-Day affair. In France, the opposition has brought down the liberal-conservative government, leaving President Emmanuel Macron increasingly politically isolated. This development also signals a challenging year ahead for European liberals in 2025.
S&D, Renew, Greens, and Left would not reach 300 seats
For the Greens/EFA group, the results of the last eight weeks have been mixed(41 seats/±0): While the Greens have made gains in the polls in Germany since the end of the traffic light coalition and are only just behind the Social Democrats in second place in Denmark, the Belgian Ecolo and the Czech Piráti are doing slightly worse.
The left-wing group, on the other hand, is benefiting from the good performance of Sinn Féin in Ireland but is losing support in Greece in particular, where the former governing party Syriza is only a shadow of its former self following numerous internal disputes. The bottom line is that the left still has 43 seats in the projection (-1). Due to the losses of the Social Democrats and the Left, the center-left camp as a whole also slips to a new all-time low: For the first time, the S&D, Renew, Greens, and Left would not even manage 300 seats together in the projection.
Fidesz on the decline in Hungary
On the other hand, the far-right camp has once again made gains. Thanks to gains in Spain, the Czech Republic, and Greece, the PfE Group reaches the symbolic 100-seat mark (+4) for the first time in the projection. However, the Hungarian governing party Fidesz is in decline and is now only in second place behind EPP member TISZA in some polls.
For the ECR group, the Romanian AUR was able to slightly outperform its already strong poll ratings in the national parliamentary elections. However, this was offset by losses in Latvia and Croatia, meaning that the ECR performed slightly weaker overall than in October (73 seats/-1). Finally, in the smallest far-right group ESN, slight losses in the Czech Republic are offset by slight gains in Germany and Poland (27 seats/+1).
The far right becomes politically influential thanks to the EPP
Taken together, the three far-right groups would reach 200 seats in the European Parliament for the first time: a new record high, but still far from a majority of their own. The far-right camp is only becoming politically influential because the EPP Group has been increasingly willing to push through decisions together with the ECR and PfE since the European elections. So far, this so-called “Venezuela majority” is still dependent on the support of the ESN Group. In the projection, however, a right-wing alliance of EPP, ECR, and PfE would now be very close to a majority even without ESN.
The non-attached parties are performing significantly weaker than in October, with the German BSW and the Slovakian governing party SMER in particular recently falling back in the polls (24 seats/-5). On the other hand, the “other” parties, which are not represented in the European Parliament and cannot be clearly assigned to a political group, made slight gains (12 seats/+3).
As there are no pan-European election polls, the seat projection is based on aggregated national polls and election results from all member states. In the baseline scenario, all national parties are assigned to their current parliamentary group (or the parliamentary group of their European umbrella party); parties without a clear assignment are shown as “other”.
The dynamic scenario assigns all “other” parties to a parliamentary group that they could plausibly join and also takes into account possible future changes in parliamentary groups of parties already represented in parliament. The far-right parties PfE and ECR would probably benefit the most from these new additions, which is why they perform slightly better in the dynamic scenario. A more detailed breakdown of the projection as well as information on the data basis and methodology can be found on the blog “The (European) Federalist“.
- Emmanuel Macron
- Europäisches Parlament
- EVP
- Greens/EFA
- Renew
- S&D
Europe.Table Editorial Team
EUROPE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE
