It’s summer break – even in Brussels. Despite the tropical temperatures, some capitals are still hotly debating who will bejoiningthe EU Commission this term. Some names have already been decided, others are still being discussed. One of them was announced yesterday afternoon, as you can read in the news.
So that you don’t lose track of who is moving into the Berlaymont for which country, we have created an overview for you here, which we will update on an ongoing basis from now on. It’s best to save the link. You can also read the current status at the bottom of this issue of Europe.Table.
My colleague Joseph Capelouto also took a look at the sentiment barometer published yesterday by the ZEW research institute and found that German experts are increasingly pessimistic about the future of the German and European economies.
German experts are worried about the future of the already ailing German economy. This was stated by the Mannheim-based ZEW Institute in its monthly report, published on Tuesday.
Only 35 percent of the analysts surveyed believe that the situation of the German economy will improve in the next six months, compared to around 50 percent in the July survey. 16 percent believe the economy will worsen, compared with 7.5 percent who were pessimistic last month. This is the sharpest fall in German economic expectations in the past two years. Just under half of the analysts surveyed believe that the German economy will remain at its current low level.
Uncertainty clouds expectations
ZEW researcher Alexander Glas attributes the deterioration in the forecast to a “combination of economic and political uncertainty” resulting from three global factors: poor US economic data, which led to a global stock market crash last week, uncertainty about the future of monetary policy in the US and Europe and fears of growing unrest in the Middle East.
As the largest EU economy, Germany’s weakness also has consequences for the rest of the eurozone, which is also barely growing. In June, the European Commission criticized Germany’s economic policy because it was too dependent on foreign demand due to its trade surplus and because Germany had too little private and public investment. The ZEW study assumes that export-oriented sectors such as the automotive industry, the steel industry and mechanical engineering in particular will record declines.
Interest rate cut as short-term lever
The gloomy economic outlook appears to be “a global phenomenon,” Glas told Table.Briefings. The experts surveyed in the ZEW survey had also become more pessimistic about the future of the European, US and Chinese economies. The last time economic expectations for the eurozone fell this sharply was at the beginning of the pandemic.
According to ZEW researcher Glas, an interest rate cut would be the most obvious short-term lever the EU could use to react to the situation. The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates at its September meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde had previously said that the question was still “wide open” and data-dependent.
Eurozone
Translation missing.
News
Poland nominates Piotr Serafin as new EU Commissioner
The Polish EU ambassador Piotr Serafin is to move to the Berlaymont.
At a press conference on Tuesday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that the Polish government had nominated Piotr Serafin as the new EU Commissioner. Tusk’s confidant knowsBrussels very well. From 2014 to 2019, he was Tusk’s Head of Cabinet when he presided over the European Council. In 2020, he moved to the General Secretariat of the EU Council before being appointed Poland’s new Permanent Representative to the EU in 2023.
Serafin is to replace the current Polish EU Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski, who was nominated by the right-wing populist PiS party. While Wojciechowski was in charge of the agricultural dossier, Tusk now hopes that Serafin will be given responsibility for the EU budget.
The nominated future EU Commissioners still have to be examined and confirmed by the European Parliament. rtr/jaa
Translation missing.
Macron party presents action plan for forming government
One month after the parliamentary elections in France, the attempts at rapprochement between the various political camps are slowly gaining momentum. The leader of the presidential party Renaissance, Stéphane Séjourné, proposed an “action plan for the French” in a letter to other party leaders.
As Séjourné announced on X, the letter is addressed to the “republican parties.” The politician, who is also acting foreign minister, is likely referring to all parties except the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National around Marine Le Pen and the left-wing party La France Insoumise.
Séjourné called for the existing divisions to be overcome. He proposed working together on seven priorities – including public services in healthcare or education, the environment and security. Differing views should not be erased, but overcome to take action. There had previously been reports that Lucie Castets, the left-wing candidate of choice for prime minister, had also written to MPs asking for cooperation.
Macron himself repeatedly campaigned for a coalition ranging from the Socialists to the Conservatives. The left-wing camp with the Left Party, Communists, Socialists and Greens, on the other hand, clearly sees itself as having the mandate to govern. dpa
Emmanuel Macron
Faeser wants to maintain border controls
Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser wants to maintain the existing border controls to combat irregular migration and people smuggling until further notice. “For me, border controls will remain as long as necessary,” said Faeser during a visit to the Federal Police in Görlitz on Tuesday. In her view, the controls at the borders with Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria and Switzerland should remain in place until irregular migration has effectively decreased. It is necessary for the measures of the new European asylum system, which provide for stronger protection of the EU’s external borders, to take effect.
It is already clear that border controls are having an effect, said the SPD politician. The fight against people smuggling had been successful and irregular migration was declining. The controls must always be approved by the EU Commission, as such measures are no longer actually envisaged in the Schengen area. The current controls by the Federal Police are currently authorized until 15 December. There are voices from the ranks of the Greens who reject further border controls. rtr
Migrationspolitik
British vegetable farmers fear Brexit consequences for harvest
New import rules after Brexit have British vegetable farmers fearing for their harvest. The regulations for importing seeds from the EU could lead to weeks of delays and have serious consequences for cultivation and financial returns, warned two British agricultural associations in the Guardian.
Imports of animal and plant products from the EU have been subject to controls since April 30. Some seeds, including tomatoes, peppers and rapeseed, would have to be tested not only in the country of origin but also in the UK, said Phil Morley of the British Tomato Growers’ Association. The subsequent delay threatened British food safety, as even more imports would now be necessary.
British tomato and bell pepper growers are dependent on imports of seeds or young plants from EU countries such as the Netherlands. The associations are calling for an agreement with the EU on the mutual recognition of testing standards.
Indication of rapprochement
In another area, however, the UK is moving closer to the EU again, as Politico reported. A new legislative package is intended to simplify alignment with EU standards. “For the first time since Brexit, the UK government is explicitly stating that it wants to actively align itself with the new EU regulations to make life easier for businesses,” said Joël Reland from the think tank UK in a Changing Europe.
Trade lawyer George Peretz said that the law could be a first step towards a so-called SPS agreementwith the EU. This would facilitate controls on food, live animals, animal feed, plants and seeds. dpa
Brexit
Must-Reads
Heads
Marc Ringel – new formats in French-German cooperation
Franco-German relations are in a poor state. That is how it seems while reading the reports of recent months on the meetings between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and French President Emmanuel Macron. On topics such as nuclear power and ground troops in Ukraine, their views diverged widely. What’s more, Germans and French are less interested in their neighbors today than before, as the Franco-German Institute (DFI) found in a study to mark its 75th anniversary.
Declining interest as a sign of self-evidence
Marc Ringel, the new director of the DFI since February, therefore has a big task ahead of him. However, he is less pessimistic about Franco-German relations. “Cooperation is supported by many levels of civil society and would continue even in the hypothetical case that the Federal Chancellor and the President did not get on,” he says. He interprets the fact that interest in each other is waning as a sign that relations between the two countries are normalizing. “However, we must not be satisfied with this, but must ensure that conversation is maintained.”
Ensuring this is part of his job as Director of the DFI. The institute was founded in Ludwigsburg in 1948, at a time when the French and Germans were just beginning to reconcile after a history full of wars. Since then, the institute has provided a platform for exchange between German and French civil societies. For example, there are projects such as “Jumelage.eu”, a website on which partner towns can share joint activities that can then serve as inspiration for others. Over the years, research and documentation of Franco-German relations as well as consulting have also been added as tasks.
At the DFI, Marc Ringel is to promote research and cooperation on climate protection and the energy transition. The 49-year-old is an economist and has been Head of the European Chair for Sustainable Development and Climate Transition at Sciences Po in Paris, one of the “great schools” of political science in France, since 2022. Until recently, he also taught as a professor of environmental and energy economics at the Nürtingen University of Applied Sciences in Baden-Württemberg.
Climate challenges between partner cities
In terms of energy policy and climate adaptation, he still sees a lot of potential for cooperation. “In France, the topic of climate adaptation is already much more present than in Germany, and we want to provide the cities the opportunity to exchange solutions,” says Ringel. “We can also strengthen cooperation with climate challenges between partner cities or by working more closely together to arrange the Voluntary Ecological Year in the neighboring country.” In general, the offers for young people need to be taken further than before. The classic school exchange or semester abroad would no longer be enough to inspire people who now have the whole world at their fingertips about the neighboring country.
With his CV, Marc Ringel could also have had a career in politics. After completing his PhD at Chemnitz University of Technology, he worked for the German government’s Scientific Advisory Council on Global Environmental Change from 2000 to 2004. He was then Deputy Head of Division at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection until 2013. From 2008 to 2009, he was seconded to the Permanent Mission of Germany to the OECD in Paris as the first embassy secretary. He later worked as a national expert in the Directorate-General for Energy at the European Commission in Brussels.
Ultimately, however, he returned to research and teaching. “I’ve always enjoyed working on current topics, but I also like going into more depth and discovering new territory,” says Ringel. At the DFI, he can now combine the two – and promote Franco-German cooperation in the process. Sophie Deister
Deutsch-Französische Beziehungen
The new EU Commission – the current status
Which Commissioners are going to Brussels?
Belgium: Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders wants to stay in Berlaymont. However, there are rumors that he could change departments. The competition portfolio is on the table, but there are other interested parties for the job. Belgium’s former Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès also has a good chance of being chosen over Reynders due to the goal of a parity commission.
Bulgaria: The new government in Sofia was supposed to nominate a candidate, but it now amounts to new elections. The interim government of experts could make a proposal instead. Three women are being considered: the former Minister of Labor Denitsa Sacheva, the former Foreign Minister Ekaterina Zaharieva and the current Research Commissioner Iliana Ivanova.
Denmark: Social Democrat Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen is considered the most likely candidate but has strong competition for the climate commissioner position in Brussels. The alternatives are Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Industry Minister Morten Bødskov.
Estonia: Kaja Kallas has already been nominated as High Representative and Foreign Affairs Commissioner.
Finland: The conservative governing party in Helsinki has nominated Henna Virkkunen as a member of the Commission. The former MEP was a member of the Industry Committee and the Women’s and Gender Equality Committee.
France: Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is to do it again and could also keep his portfolio.
Greece: The President of the European Committee of the Regions, Apóstolos Tzitzikóstas, has been nominated by the government in Athens. However, other names are circulating: Níki Keraméos could take over to fulfill von der Leyen’s parity wish and the current Commission Vice-President Margarítis Schinás would also like to continue.
Ireland: Finance Minister Michael McGrath has already been nominated as Irish Commissioner.
Italy: In Rome, there is a clear desire for Fratelli European Minister Raffaele Fitto to go to Brussels. However, the non-party intelligence coordinator Elisabetta Belloni also has a good chance if von der Leyen prefers a woman and a less politically exposed Commissioner.
Croatia: Democracy and Demography Commissioner Dubravka Šuica will stay in Berlaymont. Possibly with a portfolio adjustment.
Latvia: Commission Vice-President and Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis will remain Riga’s man in Brussels.
Lithuania: Still no agreement in sight in Vilnius. Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis is the government’s candidate from the EPP family and has been put forward as Defense Commissioner. However, the non-party President Gitanas Nausėda has other plans and would prefer an economic policy portfolio. Finance Minister Gintarė Skaistė and Government Chancellor Giedrė Balčytytė are seen as alternatives to Landsbergis.
Luxembourg: The Social Democratic lead candidate Nicolas Schmit is hoping for an important portfolio, including a deputy post in the next Commission. However, his party is in opposition in Luxembourg and Prime Minister Luc Frieden favors former MEP Christophe Hansen. An agreement is pending.
Malta: Glenn Micallef has already been nominated by the Maltese government. The civil servant previously headed the secretariat of Maltese Prime Minister Robert Abela.
Netherlands: Although the party of current Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is now in opposition, The Hague is sending the former finance minister back to Brussels. It is unlikely that he will keep his portfolio. He has mentioned the word “competition” remarkably often recently and could give the Netherlands a more important portfolio in the next Commission thanks to his achievements at COP28 in Dubai.
Austria: Vienna has nominated the current Finance Minister Magnus Brunner from the ÖVP.
Poland: Warsaw has nominated its EU ambassador Piotr Serafin. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk would like to have the budget commissioner’s office for his candidate and sees a good chance here.
Portugal: Lisbon will send two proposals to Brussels: former Finance Minister Maria Luísa Albuquerque is likely to be one of them. Former Regional Development Minister Miguel Poiares Maduro or UN official Jorge Moreira da Silva are still in contention for second place. Maduro is regarded as an all-rounder, Moreira as an experienced negotiator on the international climate stage. However, the latter has big competition if he were to aim for the climate portfolio.
Romania: The newly elected EP Vice-President Victor Negrescu has the best chances of becoming a Commissioner in Brussels, as he is considered the favorite of the government in Bucharest. Outsider chances still exist for MEP Siegfried Mureşan and former MEP Mihai Tudose.
Sweden: Stockholm has already nominated European Affairs Minister Jessika Roswall.
Slovakia: Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič will remain in Berlaymont. Whether he will also keep his Green Deal portfolio depends on how von der Leyen divides the portfolios of the next Commission. If there is a Green Deal High Commissioner and a separate Climate Commissioner for international negotiations, as was the case recently, Šefčovič could keep his portfolio. However, he is unlikely to lay claim to the climate portfolio.
Slovenia: The independent Tomaž Vesel is Ljubljana’s candidate for the Berlaymont. He chaired the Slovenian Court of Audit from 2013 to 2022.
Spain: Although Teresa Ribera has already been confirmed as Commissioner, the Spanish Environment Minister does not want to give up her post in Madrid until she knows her portfolio and is certain that she will also be given a Vice-President position in the Commission. The climate or energy portfolio is a possibility for her.
Czech Republic: Industry Minister Jozef Síkela is Prague’s candidate for Brussels. He is also interested in the energy portfolio and will therefore have to come to an agreement with Teresa Ribera.
Hungary: Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi is to continue – at least that is what Viktor Orbán wants. However, the EU Parliament is likely to have something against this, which is why Budapest is already planning alternatives: MEP Enikő Győri or EU Minister János Bóka are possible candidates.
Cyprus: Three names can be heard from Nicosia, albeit not officially: former Finance Minister Hárris Georgiádes, former Energy Minister Giórgos Lakkotrýpis and the current Foreign Minister Konstantínos Kómbos. There are reports that Cyprus is aiming for the newly planned Mediterranean portfolio.
It’s summer break – even in Brussels. Despite the tropical temperatures, some capitals are still hotly debating who will bejoiningthe EU Commission this term. Some names have already been decided, others are still being discussed. One of them was announced yesterday afternoon, as you can read in the news.
So that you don’t lose track of who is moving into the Berlaymont for which country, we have created an overview for you here, which we will update on an ongoing basis from now on. It’s best to save the link. You can also read the current status at the bottom of this issue of Europe.Table.
My colleague Joseph Capelouto also took a look at the sentiment barometer published yesterday by the ZEW research institute and found that German experts are increasingly pessimistic about the future of the German and European economies.
German experts are worried about the future of the already ailing German economy. This was stated by the Mannheim-based ZEW Institute in its monthly report, published on Tuesday.
Only 35 percent of the analysts surveyed believe that the situation of the German economy will improve in the next six months, compared to around 50 percent in the July survey. 16 percent believe the economy will worsen, compared with 7.5 percent who were pessimistic last month. This is the sharpest fall in German economic expectations in the past two years. Just under half of the analysts surveyed believe that the German economy will remain at its current low level.
Uncertainty clouds expectations
ZEW researcher Alexander Glas attributes the deterioration in the forecast to a “combination of economic and political uncertainty” resulting from three global factors: poor US economic data, which led to a global stock market crash last week, uncertainty about the future of monetary policy in the US and Europe and fears of growing unrest in the Middle East.
As the largest EU economy, Germany’s weakness also has consequences for the rest of the eurozone, which is also barely growing. In June, the European Commission criticized Germany’s economic policy because it was too dependent on foreign demand due to its trade surplus and because Germany had too little private and public investment. The ZEW study assumes that export-oriented sectors such as the automotive industry, the steel industry and mechanical engineering in particular will record declines.
Interest rate cut as short-term lever
The gloomy economic outlook appears to be “a global phenomenon,” Glas told Table.Briefings. The experts surveyed in the ZEW survey had also become more pessimistic about the future of the European, US and Chinese economies. The last time economic expectations for the eurozone fell this sharply was at the beginning of the pandemic.
According to ZEW researcher Glas, an interest rate cut would be the most obvious short-term lever the EU could use to react to the situation. The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates at its September meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde had previously said that the question was still “wide open” and data-dependent.
Eurozone
Translation missing.
News
Poland nominates Piotr Serafin as new EU Commissioner
The Polish EU ambassador Piotr Serafin is to move to the Berlaymont.
At a press conference on Tuesday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that the Polish government had nominated Piotr Serafin as the new EU Commissioner. Tusk’s confidant knowsBrussels very well. From 2014 to 2019, he was Tusk’s Head of Cabinet when he presided over the European Council. In 2020, he moved to the General Secretariat of the EU Council before being appointed Poland’s new Permanent Representative to the EU in 2023.
Serafin is to replace the current Polish EU Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski, who was nominated by the right-wing populist PiS party. While Wojciechowski was in charge of the agricultural dossier, Tusk now hopes that Serafin will be given responsibility for the EU budget.
The nominated future EU Commissioners still have to be examined and confirmed by the European Parliament. rtr/jaa
Translation missing.
Macron party presents action plan for forming government
One month after the parliamentary elections in France, the attempts at rapprochement between the various political camps are slowly gaining momentum. The leader of the presidential party Renaissance, Stéphane Séjourné, proposed an “action plan for the French” in a letter to other party leaders.
As Séjourné announced on X, the letter is addressed to the “republican parties.” The politician, who is also acting foreign minister, is likely referring to all parties except the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National around Marine Le Pen and the left-wing party La France Insoumise.
Séjourné called for the existing divisions to be overcome. He proposed working together on seven priorities – including public services in healthcare or education, the environment and security. Differing views should not be erased, but overcome to take action. There had previously been reports that Lucie Castets, the left-wing candidate of choice for prime minister, had also written to MPs asking for cooperation.
Macron himself repeatedly campaigned for a coalition ranging from the Socialists to the Conservatives. The left-wing camp with the Left Party, Communists, Socialists and Greens, on the other hand, clearly sees itself as having the mandate to govern. dpa
Emmanuel Macron
Faeser wants to maintain border controls
Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser wants to maintain the existing border controls to combat irregular migration and people smuggling until further notice. “For me, border controls will remain as long as necessary,” said Faeser during a visit to the Federal Police in Görlitz on Tuesday. In her view, the controls at the borders with Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria and Switzerland should remain in place until irregular migration has effectively decreased. It is necessary for the measures of the new European asylum system, which provide for stronger protection of the EU’s external borders, to take effect.
It is already clear that border controls are having an effect, said the SPD politician. The fight against people smuggling had been successful and irregular migration was declining. The controls must always be approved by the EU Commission, as such measures are no longer actually envisaged in the Schengen area. The current controls by the Federal Police are currently authorized until 15 December. There are voices from the ranks of the Greens who reject further border controls. rtr
Migrationspolitik
British vegetable farmers fear Brexit consequences for harvest
New import rules after Brexit have British vegetable farmers fearing for their harvest. The regulations for importing seeds from the EU could lead to weeks of delays and have serious consequences for cultivation and financial returns, warned two British agricultural associations in the Guardian.
Imports of animal and plant products from the EU have been subject to controls since April 30. Some seeds, including tomatoes, peppers and rapeseed, would have to be tested not only in the country of origin but also in the UK, said Phil Morley of the British Tomato Growers’ Association. The subsequent delay threatened British food safety, as even more imports would now be necessary.
British tomato and bell pepper growers are dependent on imports of seeds or young plants from EU countries such as the Netherlands. The associations are calling for an agreement with the EU on the mutual recognition of testing standards.
Indication of rapprochement
In another area, however, the UK is moving closer to the EU again, as Politico reported. A new legislative package is intended to simplify alignment with EU standards. “For the first time since Brexit, the UK government is explicitly stating that it wants to actively align itself with the new EU regulations to make life easier for businesses,” said Joël Reland from the think tank UK in a Changing Europe.
Trade lawyer George Peretz said that the law could be a first step towards a so-called SPS agreementwith the EU. This would facilitate controls on food, live animals, animal feed, plants and seeds. dpa
Brexit
Must-Reads
Heads
Marc Ringel – new formats in French-German cooperation
Franco-German relations are in a poor state. That is how it seems while reading the reports of recent months on the meetings between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and French President Emmanuel Macron. On topics such as nuclear power and ground troops in Ukraine, their views diverged widely. What’s more, Germans and French are less interested in their neighbors today than before, as the Franco-German Institute (DFI) found in a study to mark its 75th anniversary.
Declining interest as a sign of self-evidence
Marc Ringel, the new director of the DFI since February, therefore has a big task ahead of him. However, he is less pessimistic about Franco-German relations. “Cooperation is supported by many levels of civil society and would continue even in the hypothetical case that the Federal Chancellor and the President did not get on,” he says. He interprets the fact that interest in each other is waning as a sign that relations between the two countries are normalizing. “However, we must not be satisfied with this, but must ensure that conversation is maintained.”
Ensuring this is part of his job as Director of the DFI. The institute was founded in Ludwigsburg in 1948, at a time when the French and Germans were just beginning to reconcile after a history full of wars. Since then, the institute has provided a platform for exchange between German and French civil societies. For example, there are projects such as “Jumelage.eu”, a website on which partner towns can share joint activities that can then serve as inspiration for others. Over the years, research and documentation of Franco-German relations as well as consulting have also been added as tasks.
At the DFI, Marc Ringel is to promote research and cooperation on climate protection and the energy transition. The 49-year-old is an economist and has been Head of the European Chair for Sustainable Development and Climate Transition at Sciences Po in Paris, one of the “great schools” of political science in France, since 2022. Until recently, he also taught as a professor of environmental and energy economics at the Nürtingen University of Applied Sciences in Baden-Württemberg.
Climate challenges between partner cities
In terms of energy policy and climate adaptation, he still sees a lot of potential for cooperation. “In France, the topic of climate adaptation is already much more present than in Germany, and we want to provide the cities the opportunity to exchange solutions,” says Ringel. “We can also strengthen cooperation with climate challenges between partner cities or by working more closely together to arrange the Voluntary Ecological Year in the neighboring country.” In general, the offers for young people need to be taken further than before. The classic school exchange or semester abroad would no longer be enough to inspire people who now have the whole world at their fingertips about the neighboring country.
With his CV, Marc Ringel could also have had a career in politics. After completing his PhD at Chemnitz University of Technology, he worked for the German government’s Scientific Advisory Council on Global Environmental Change from 2000 to 2004. He was then Deputy Head of Division at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection until 2013. From 2008 to 2009, he was seconded to the Permanent Mission of Germany to the OECD in Paris as the first embassy secretary. He later worked as a national expert in the Directorate-General for Energy at the European Commission in Brussels.
Ultimately, however, he returned to research and teaching. “I’ve always enjoyed working on current topics, but I also like going into more depth and discovering new territory,” says Ringel. At the DFI, he can now combine the two – and promote Franco-German cooperation in the process. Sophie Deister
Deutsch-Französische Beziehungen
The new EU Commission – the current status
Which Commissioners are going to Brussels?
Belgium: Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders wants to stay in Berlaymont. However, there are rumors that he could change departments. The competition portfolio is on the table, but there are other interested parties for the job. Belgium’s former Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès also has a good chance of being chosen over Reynders due to the goal of a parity commission.
Bulgaria: The new government in Sofia was supposed to nominate a candidate, but it now amounts to new elections. The interim government of experts could make a proposal instead. Three women are being considered: the former Minister of Labor Denitsa Sacheva, the former Foreign Minister Ekaterina Zaharieva and the current Research Commissioner Iliana Ivanova.
Denmark: Social Democrat Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen is considered the most likely candidate but has strong competition for the climate commissioner position in Brussels. The alternatives are Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Industry Minister Morten Bødskov.
Estonia: Kaja Kallas has already been nominated as High Representative and Foreign Affairs Commissioner.
Finland: The conservative governing party in Helsinki has nominated Henna Virkkunen as a member of the Commission. The former MEP was a member of the Industry Committee and the Women’s and Gender Equality Committee.
France: Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is to do it again and could also keep his portfolio.
Greece: The President of the European Committee of the Regions, Apóstolos Tzitzikóstas, has been nominated by the government in Athens. However, other names are circulating: Níki Keraméos could take over to fulfill von der Leyen’s parity wish and the current Commission Vice-President Margarítis Schinás would also like to continue.
Ireland: Finance Minister Michael McGrath has already been nominated as Irish Commissioner.
Italy: In Rome, there is a clear desire for Fratelli European Minister Raffaele Fitto to go to Brussels. However, the non-party intelligence coordinator Elisabetta Belloni also has a good chance if von der Leyen prefers a woman and a less politically exposed Commissioner.
Croatia: Democracy and Demography Commissioner Dubravka Šuica will stay in Berlaymont. Possibly with a portfolio adjustment.
Latvia: Commission Vice-President and Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis will remain Riga’s man in Brussels.
Lithuania: Still no agreement in sight in Vilnius. Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis is the government’s candidate from the EPP family and has been put forward as Defense Commissioner. However, the non-party President Gitanas Nausėda has other plans and would prefer an economic policy portfolio. Finance Minister Gintarė Skaistė and Government Chancellor Giedrė Balčytytė are seen as alternatives to Landsbergis.
Luxembourg: The Social Democratic lead candidate Nicolas Schmit is hoping for an important portfolio, including a deputy post in the next Commission. However, his party is in opposition in Luxembourg and Prime Minister Luc Frieden favors former MEP Christophe Hansen. An agreement is pending.
Malta: Glenn Micallef has already been nominated by the Maltese government. The civil servant previously headed the secretariat of Maltese Prime Minister Robert Abela.
Netherlands: Although the party of current Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is now in opposition, The Hague is sending the former finance minister back to Brussels. It is unlikely that he will keep his portfolio. He has mentioned the word “competition” remarkably often recently and could give the Netherlands a more important portfolio in the next Commission thanks to his achievements at COP28 in Dubai.
Austria: Vienna has nominated the current Finance Minister Magnus Brunner from the ÖVP.
Poland: Warsaw has nominated its EU ambassador Piotr Serafin. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk would like to have the budget commissioner’s office for his candidate and sees a good chance here.
Portugal: Lisbon will send two proposals to Brussels: former Finance Minister Maria Luísa Albuquerque is likely to be one of them. Former Regional Development Minister Miguel Poiares Maduro or UN official Jorge Moreira da Silva are still in contention for second place. Maduro is regarded as an all-rounder, Moreira as an experienced negotiator on the international climate stage. However, the latter has big competition if he were to aim for the climate portfolio.
Romania: The newly elected EP Vice-President Victor Negrescu has the best chances of becoming a Commissioner in Brussels, as he is considered the favorite of the government in Bucharest. Outsider chances still exist for MEP Siegfried Mureşan and former MEP Mihai Tudose.
Sweden: Stockholm has already nominated European Affairs Minister Jessika Roswall.
Slovakia: Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič will remain in Berlaymont. Whether he will also keep his Green Deal portfolio depends on how von der Leyen divides the portfolios of the next Commission. If there is a Green Deal High Commissioner and a separate Climate Commissioner for international negotiations, as was the case recently, Šefčovič could keep his portfolio. However, he is unlikely to lay claim to the climate portfolio.
Slovenia: The independent Tomaž Vesel is Ljubljana’s candidate for the Berlaymont. He chaired the Slovenian Court of Audit from 2013 to 2022.
Spain: Although Teresa Ribera has already been confirmed as Commissioner, the Spanish Environment Minister does not want to give up her post in Madrid until she knows her portfolio and is certain that she will also be given a Vice-President position in the Commission. The climate or energy portfolio is a possibility for her.
Czech Republic: Industry Minister Jozef Síkela is Prague’s candidate for Brussels. He is also interested in the energy portfolio and will therefore have to come to an agreement with Teresa Ribera.
Hungary: Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi is to continue – at least that is what Viktor Orbán wants. However, the EU Parliament is likely to have something against this, which is why Budapest is already planning alternatives: MEP Enikő Győri or EU Minister János Bóka are possible candidates.
Cyprus: Three names can be heard from Nicosia, albeit not officially: former Finance Minister Hárris Georgiádes, former Energy Minister Giórgos Lakkotrýpis and the current Foreign Minister Konstantínos Kómbos. There are reports that Cyprus is aiming for the newly planned Mediterranean portfolio.
