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The UN Climate Change Conference COP29 starts today in Baku. Rarely in recent years has the look-out for a climate conference been so bad and the challenges so great. The most important topic at this COP: future international climate financing. The states must agree on a new financial target that exceeds the previous mark of US$100 billion per year as far as possible, for example.
Secondly, there is the question of which countries will pay for international climate financing. Europe is already paying its fair share and is pushing for other industrialized countries to do the same. However, with Donald Trump in the White House, the most important partner in the fight against climate change is no longer reliable. Any funding commitments from the USA will become unlikely. The EU is also urging those developing countries that are in a position to make a contribution to do so. The demand addresses above all Beijing, Riyadh and New Delhi.
However, Europe is traveling to Baku significantly weakened. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will not be traveling to Azerbaijan; she is busy in Brussels with the reorganization of her Commission. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has canceled his trip due to the government crisis in Berlin, and Emmanuel Macron will also be conspicuous by his absence. The most important European voice will come from Budapest: Viktor Orbán is due to speak in Baku.
As of today, a three-person team from Table.Briefings is in Baku and reports daily on the negotiations in Climate.Table. You can find our coverage of COP29 here.
Tensions between the EPP, Renew and S&D are growing ahead of Tuesday’s hearings of the six candidates for the executive vice-president posts in the new European Commission. There are indications that the Liberal and Socialist coordinators do not support both the Italian candidate Raffaele Fitto and the Hungarian Olivér Várhelyi. Both have been proposed by right-wing governments. In this scenario, the Socialist Teresa Ribera, Spanish candidate for the transformation portfolio, might not get the support of the EPP in return.
Várhelyi cut a confident figure at his hearing on Wednesday, shone with his expertise and approached MEPs on many points. Nevertheless, he has to answer further questions from both the Environment and Agriculture Committees by Monday afternoon. The wording of the questions and the assessment of his appearance are likely to be perceived as unfriendly by Várhelyi.
The coordinators of the ENVI and AGRI committees are also considering asking von der Leyen to reduce Várhelyi’s portfolio. For example, the area of animal welfare could be given to Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen instead. If von der Leyen agreed to this, Hansen would have to undergo another hearing.
It is also conceivable that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán would not accept a curtailment of the Hungarian commissioner’s portfolio, which is already not generous, and would withdraw Várhelyi. This would delay the start of the Von der Leyen Commission II and place the procedure in Orbán’s hands. The coordinators of AGRI and ENVI will meet on Monday from 3 p.m.
Fitto will be heard by the REGI Committee on Tuesday from 9 a.m. Before the hearing, Renew and S&D are considering demanding that the Cohesion Commissioner-designate is not given the prominent position of Executive Vice-President.
If there is not a two-thirds majority among the coordinators for the nomination, written questions or a second hearing, a vote is taken at committee level. A majority in favor of the nomination is sufficient. In the case of both Várhelyi and Fitto, it would be enough for a nomination if the EPP, ECR and Patriots were to agree. However, the EPP would be accused by the Liberals and Socialists of violating the cordon sanitaire.
Teresa Ribera’s hearing begins on Tuesday at 6.30 p.m. It is already clear that the Spanish EPP MEPs will question Ribera harshly. She is a confidante of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and the political climate in Spain is poisoned. The flood disaster in Valencia is providing the Spanish Christian Democrats with ammunition: Ribera has still not resigned from her position as Environment Minister in the Spanish government, although she has been nominated to the Commission for months.
Holding on to the ministerial post now makes her vulnerable: Ribera is accused of sharing political responsibility for the storm disaster in Valencia. The Ministry of the Environment is responsible for the meteorological services, which apparently did not give sufficient warning of the rain masses. Ribera is also responsible for the authorities in charge of monitoring the waterway infrastructure. Whether the Christian Democrats actually refuse to approve Ribera depends on how the decisions on Fitto and Várhelyi go beforehand.
Last week, the right-wing conservative ECR also supported the Renew and S&D candidates, although the group is not part of the Von der Leyen coalition. After the hearings, the coordinators wrote a letter to each commissioner stating their approval and their commitments to Parliament. These letters first go to the Conference of Committee Chairs (CCC) and are then released by the political group leaders (COP).
Mr. Wuttke, Donald Trump was elected the next president of the USA last week. What does this mean for China – and for German companies operating there?
That depends entirely on the extent to which Trump implements what he announced during the election campaign. The basic rule in Washington is: although everything he says sounds terrible, he will probably implement it. He owes it to his voters. Tariffs of 60 percent on Chinese products are therefore likely to come. The only question is: will they come in one big bang, or in stages? So a quarter in 2025, a quarter in 2026, and a quarter will be exempt from the tariffs because these areas are too price-sensitive for the lower classes. I estimate that the measures will come over two to three years.
In which areas will problems arise?
Especially in the area of supply chains. We are now in the so-called lame-duck period until mid-January and more than 70 legislative proposals are being discussed in Washington during this phase. Many in the area of artificial intelligence, many in the area of China, including the Biosecure Act. In the field of biotechnology, this will make it very difficult for American companies to work with Chinese companies. The other will be the Countering CCP Drones Act, which is directed against DJI in Shenzhen. Many German companies are also involved as suppliers. The USA is expected to issue legislation that will make it impossible for DJI to fly on American communication channels.
The other issue will be an Investment Screening Act for American companies. This does not affect German companies directly, but it will certainly be the case that Trump, with all these ideas that he is now implementing – with tariffs and investment screening – will perhaps also make an appearance in Berlin or Brussels next year. And then perhaps he will say: If you want me to support you in Ukraine, you have to support me against China. I assume that the pressure will be extremely high, whether we like it or not.
Should we fear a deepening division of the markets?
Decoupling will certainly continue to increase. The Chinese started it, the Americans got to the heart of it, the Europeans tried to counter it with derisking. The volume of trade between America and China will decline as a result. And that will lead to China using its overcapacity to target other world markets, including the European market. That will be a big problem for all of us. We will have to wait and see how the Chinese react. Will they impose punitive tariffs on American products, or will they respond to the tariffs by lowering the renminbi somewhat? That would make Chinese products even cheaper in Europe and therefore even more competitive.
How can German companies minimize their risk?
The “in China for China” strategy is certainly one way of dealing with this. China is a large market. However, the problem we have in China is that market access is still very difficult and the economic outlook is nowhere near as positive as in the USA. So that will also be an issue: How will the American economy develop? My assessment so far has been that the Germans are doing extremely well in the USA, while in China, they are bringing out ever larger position papers because of the trade hurdles.
In the USA, however, German companies have the problem that they cannot find enough workers, especially in the low-wage segment. We have to see how this develops and how companies react. Is there more of a shift towards America and a move away from China because supply chains are becoming difficult and China’s economy will continue to stagnate?
In any case, I don’t believe that we can turn our backs on America. The USA is too big a trading partner, as are the investments. “In America, for America” can also be a strategy. German workers are in the middle and may have to watch investments migrate to America because the economy is booming there. The dollar is strong. And Trump, like Biden, will promote investment in the manufacturing sector. Last but not least, we also need to see in which areas the trade distortions will have an impact on third markets.
You are talking about third markets. Could it also be that they are absorbing overcapacity from China, for example?
China currently exports around five million cars, with only half a million going to Europe, mostly EVs. They mainly export combustion cars to the other markets. And that’s where they become competition for us, which we don’t want. South America, Africa and Oceania are not typical EV markets. There will certainly be cut-throat competition for combustion engines there. You have to see to what extent the Chinese will also act as investors there, for example in Thailand, Turkey and Brazil. Russia has already become a monopoly market for China.
What does the end of the traffic light coalition mean?
The traffic light system’s demise means that there is still a great deal of uncertainty, and uncertainty always leads to investments being held back. There is no planning security, which has been a problem for a long time due to the back and forth of the traffic lights. What’s more, we currently have the politically weakest Europe we have ever had. We will have to see what happens between now and March, but we are facing an extreme lame-duck period. The German economy is already emotionally down anyway. That’s not good. We need a shot of optimism and we need to see if a new government is able to spread it. Will China continue to look at Germany? Definitely. The size of the market and the importance of German politics in Europe will not decrease drastically. We will see who the successor is in Berlin and to what extent Germany will tend to align itself with America. A lot can still happen between January 20 and the end of March.
Jörg Wuttke has been a partner at Dentons Global Advisors-Albright Stonebridge Group in Washington for several months. Previously, he was Managing Director and Chief Representative of BASF China and President of the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing. Wuttke lived in China for more than 25 years.
Almost exactly one year ago, Gubad Ibadoghlu was supposed to take up a new position at TU Dresden. But it never happened. In July 2023, the native of Azerbaijan was arrested together with his wife on the street in Baku. His wife was released the same day and subsequently reported mistreatment and even torture. Ibadoghlu has still not been released and is accused of terrorism. He is said to belong to the Gülen movement. There is no real evidence of this.
After 274 days in detention and further reports of torture, he was transferred to house arrest on April 22 of this year, where Ibadoghlu remains to this day. He is unable to leave the country but suffers from serious health problems. Due to type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure and a dilated aorta, the European Court of Human Rights ordered adequate medical treatment, which his family says he has been denied. “His condition is constantly deteriorating, but the regime in Azerbaijan is ignoring this”, says Zahla Bayramova, the daughter of the imprisoned regime critic. Without medical treatment, he is at risk of a stroke or life-threatening heart disease.
The 53-year-old first came to the attention of the Azerbaijani government through his work at the Economic Research Center, a Baku-based think tank that promotes transparent governance and good governance. He later conducted research in Warsaw, Chapel Hill, Princeton and most recently at the London School of Economics. The next step in his career would have been a professorship at TU Dresden, which never materialized.
His research exposed corruption and mismanagement in the Azerbaijani state apparatus, particularly concerning fossil fuels. He constantly criticized the poor human rights situation and the management of oil revenues in his native country. The economist was also concerned about the gas deal between the European Union and Azerbaijan. He called for the EU to use the deal to achieve improvements in the human rights situation and democracy in Azerbaijan.
The regime in Baku did not like this research and the attention paid to Ibadoghlu. According to Amnesty International, the “unfounded prosecution of Gubad Ibadoghlu” is part of the ongoing crackdown by the Azerbaijani authorities on human rights activists, government critics and independent media. This “familiar pattern” can also be observed in the run-up to the UN Climate Change Conference in Baku (COP29) in order to silence critical voices.
But the COP is now in the very place where Ibadoghlu is being held captive. This could also put pressure on the Azerbaijani regime. Diplomats and activists from all over the world will be flocking to Baku from next Monday. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is also aware of Ibadoghlu’s fate and is likely to raise the issue of his release in her talks with her Azerbaijani counterparts during her stay in Baku in the second week of the COP.
Members of the EU Parliament will also travel to Baku and insist on the release of the fossil critic. They recently nominated Ibadoghlu for the Sakharov Prize and have already spoken out against repression against Ibadoghlu in resolutions passed by a large majority. As a nominee for the Sakharov Prize, he has also been invited to the award ceremony in Strasbourg in December, which is why Parliament President Roberta Metsola called on the Azerbaijani government to lift his house arrest.
Ibadoghlu has long been a symbol of resistance to corruption and oppression in Azerbaijan. Things that the regime would rather not discuss too widely in public during the COP. The chances of his release are therefore not bad at the moment. However, if the efforts remain unsuccessful until the end of the COP and Baku disappears from the public eye again, it will be all the more difficult for Ibadoghlu. Lukas Knigge
The UN Climate Change Conference COP29 starts today in Baku. Rarely in recent years has the look-out for a climate conference been so bad and the challenges so great. The most important topic at this COP: future international climate financing. The states must agree on a new financial target that exceeds the previous mark of US$100 billion per year as far as possible, for example.
Secondly, there is the question of which countries will pay for international climate financing. Europe is already paying its fair share and is pushing for other industrialized countries to do the same. However, with Donald Trump in the White House, the most important partner in the fight against climate change is no longer reliable. Any funding commitments from the USA will become unlikely. The EU is also urging those developing countries that are in a position to make a contribution to do so. The demand addresses above all Beijing, Riyadh and New Delhi.
However, Europe is traveling to Baku significantly weakened. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will not be traveling to Azerbaijan; she is busy in Brussels with the reorganization of her Commission. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has canceled his trip due to the government crisis in Berlin, and Emmanuel Macron will also be conspicuous by his absence. The most important European voice will come from Budapest: Viktor Orbán is due to speak in Baku.
As of today, a three-person team from Table.Briefings is in Baku and reports daily on the negotiations in Climate.Table. You can find our coverage of COP29 here.
Tensions between the EPP, Renew and S&D are growing ahead of Tuesday’s hearings of the six candidates for the executive vice-president posts in the new European Commission. There are indications that the Liberal and Socialist coordinators do not support both the Italian candidate Raffaele Fitto and the Hungarian Olivér Várhelyi. Both have been proposed by right-wing governments. In this scenario, the Socialist Teresa Ribera, Spanish candidate for the transformation portfolio, might not get the support of the EPP in return.
Várhelyi cut a confident figure at his hearing on Wednesday, shone with his expertise and approached MEPs on many points. Nevertheless, he has to answer further questions from both the Environment and Agriculture Committees by Monday afternoon. The wording of the questions and the assessment of his appearance are likely to be perceived as unfriendly by Várhelyi.
The coordinators of the ENVI and AGRI committees are also considering asking von der Leyen to reduce Várhelyi’s portfolio. For example, the area of animal welfare could be given to Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen instead. If von der Leyen agreed to this, Hansen would have to undergo another hearing.
It is also conceivable that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán would not accept a curtailment of the Hungarian commissioner’s portfolio, which is already not generous, and would withdraw Várhelyi. This would delay the start of the Von der Leyen Commission II and place the procedure in Orbán’s hands. The coordinators of AGRI and ENVI will meet on Monday from 3 p.m.
Fitto will be heard by the REGI Committee on Tuesday from 9 a.m. Before the hearing, Renew and S&D are considering demanding that the Cohesion Commissioner-designate is not given the prominent position of Executive Vice-President.
If there is not a two-thirds majority among the coordinators for the nomination, written questions or a second hearing, a vote is taken at committee level. A majority in favor of the nomination is sufficient. In the case of both Várhelyi and Fitto, it would be enough for a nomination if the EPP, ECR and Patriots were to agree. However, the EPP would be accused by the Liberals and Socialists of violating the cordon sanitaire.
Teresa Ribera’s hearing begins on Tuesday at 6.30 p.m. It is already clear that the Spanish EPP MEPs will question Ribera harshly. She is a confidante of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and the political climate in Spain is poisoned. The flood disaster in Valencia is providing the Spanish Christian Democrats with ammunition: Ribera has still not resigned from her position as Environment Minister in the Spanish government, although she has been nominated to the Commission for months.
Holding on to the ministerial post now makes her vulnerable: Ribera is accused of sharing political responsibility for the storm disaster in Valencia. The Ministry of the Environment is responsible for the meteorological services, which apparently did not give sufficient warning of the rain masses. Ribera is also responsible for the authorities in charge of monitoring the waterway infrastructure. Whether the Christian Democrats actually refuse to approve Ribera depends on how the decisions on Fitto and Várhelyi go beforehand.
Last week, the right-wing conservative ECR also supported the Renew and S&D candidates, although the group is not part of the Von der Leyen coalition. After the hearings, the coordinators wrote a letter to each commissioner stating their approval and their commitments to Parliament. These letters first go to the Conference of Committee Chairs (CCC) and are then released by the political group leaders (COP).
Mr. Wuttke, Donald Trump was elected the next president of the USA last week. What does this mean for China – and for German companies operating there?
That depends entirely on the extent to which Trump implements what he announced during the election campaign. The basic rule in Washington is: although everything he says sounds terrible, he will probably implement it. He owes it to his voters. Tariffs of 60 percent on Chinese products are therefore likely to come. The only question is: will they come in one big bang, or in stages? So a quarter in 2025, a quarter in 2026, and a quarter will be exempt from the tariffs because these areas are too price-sensitive for the lower classes. I estimate that the measures will come over two to three years.
In which areas will problems arise?
Especially in the area of supply chains. We are now in the so-called lame-duck period until mid-January and more than 70 legislative proposals are being discussed in Washington during this phase. Many in the area of artificial intelligence, many in the area of China, including the Biosecure Act. In the field of biotechnology, this will make it very difficult for American companies to work with Chinese companies. The other will be the Countering CCP Drones Act, which is directed against DJI in Shenzhen. Many German companies are also involved as suppliers. The USA is expected to issue legislation that will make it impossible for DJI to fly on American communication channels.
The other issue will be an Investment Screening Act for American companies. This does not affect German companies directly, but it will certainly be the case that Trump, with all these ideas that he is now implementing – with tariffs and investment screening – will perhaps also make an appearance in Berlin or Brussels next year. And then perhaps he will say: If you want me to support you in Ukraine, you have to support me against China. I assume that the pressure will be extremely high, whether we like it or not.
Should we fear a deepening division of the markets?
Decoupling will certainly continue to increase. The Chinese started it, the Americans got to the heart of it, the Europeans tried to counter it with derisking. The volume of trade between America and China will decline as a result. And that will lead to China using its overcapacity to target other world markets, including the European market. That will be a big problem for all of us. We will have to wait and see how the Chinese react. Will they impose punitive tariffs on American products, or will they respond to the tariffs by lowering the renminbi somewhat? That would make Chinese products even cheaper in Europe and therefore even more competitive.
How can German companies minimize their risk?
The “in China for China” strategy is certainly one way of dealing with this. China is a large market. However, the problem we have in China is that market access is still very difficult and the economic outlook is nowhere near as positive as in the USA. So that will also be an issue: How will the American economy develop? My assessment so far has been that the Germans are doing extremely well in the USA, while in China, they are bringing out ever larger position papers because of the trade hurdles.
In the USA, however, German companies have the problem that they cannot find enough workers, especially in the low-wage segment. We have to see how this develops and how companies react. Is there more of a shift towards America and a move away from China because supply chains are becoming difficult and China’s economy will continue to stagnate?
In any case, I don’t believe that we can turn our backs on America. The USA is too big a trading partner, as are the investments. “In America, for America” can also be a strategy. German workers are in the middle and may have to watch investments migrate to America because the economy is booming there. The dollar is strong. And Trump, like Biden, will promote investment in the manufacturing sector. Last but not least, we also need to see in which areas the trade distortions will have an impact on third markets.
You are talking about third markets. Could it also be that they are absorbing overcapacity from China, for example?
China currently exports around five million cars, with only half a million going to Europe, mostly EVs. They mainly export combustion cars to the other markets. And that’s where they become competition for us, which we don’t want. South America, Africa and Oceania are not typical EV markets. There will certainly be cut-throat competition for combustion engines there. You have to see to what extent the Chinese will also act as investors there, for example in Thailand, Turkey and Brazil. Russia has already become a monopoly market for China.
What does the end of the traffic light coalition mean?
The traffic light system’s demise means that there is still a great deal of uncertainty, and uncertainty always leads to investments being held back. There is no planning security, which has been a problem for a long time due to the back and forth of the traffic lights. What’s more, we currently have the politically weakest Europe we have ever had. We will have to see what happens between now and March, but we are facing an extreme lame-duck period. The German economy is already emotionally down anyway. That’s not good. We need a shot of optimism and we need to see if a new government is able to spread it. Will China continue to look at Germany? Definitely. The size of the market and the importance of German politics in Europe will not decrease drastically. We will see who the successor is in Berlin and to what extent Germany will tend to align itself with America. A lot can still happen between January 20 and the end of March.
Jörg Wuttke has been a partner at Dentons Global Advisors-Albright Stonebridge Group in Washington for several months. Previously, he was Managing Director and Chief Representative of BASF China and President of the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing. Wuttke lived in China for more than 25 years.
Almost exactly one year ago, Gubad Ibadoghlu was supposed to take up a new position at TU Dresden. But it never happened. In July 2023, the native of Azerbaijan was arrested together with his wife on the street in Baku. His wife was released the same day and subsequently reported mistreatment and even torture. Ibadoghlu has still not been released and is accused of terrorism. He is said to belong to the Gülen movement. There is no real evidence of this.
After 274 days in detention and further reports of torture, he was transferred to house arrest on April 22 of this year, where Ibadoghlu remains to this day. He is unable to leave the country but suffers from serious health problems. Due to type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure and a dilated aorta, the European Court of Human Rights ordered adequate medical treatment, which his family says he has been denied. “His condition is constantly deteriorating, but the regime in Azerbaijan is ignoring this”, says Zahla Bayramova, the daughter of the imprisoned regime critic. Without medical treatment, he is at risk of a stroke or life-threatening heart disease.
The 53-year-old first came to the attention of the Azerbaijani government through his work at the Economic Research Center, a Baku-based think tank that promotes transparent governance and good governance. He later conducted research in Warsaw, Chapel Hill, Princeton and most recently at the London School of Economics. The next step in his career would have been a professorship at TU Dresden, which never materialized.
His research exposed corruption and mismanagement in the Azerbaijani state apparatus, particularly concerning fossil fuels. He constantly criticized the poor human rights situation and the management of oil revenues in his native country. The economist was also concerned about the gas deal between the European Union and Azerbaijan. He called for the EU to use the deal to achieve improvements in the human rights situation and democracy in Azerbaijan.
The regime in Baku did not like this research and the attention paid to Ibadoghlu. According to Amnesty International, the “unfounded prosecution of Gubad Ibadoghlu” is part of the ongoing crackdown by the Azerbaijani authorities on human rights activists, government critics and independent media. This “familiar pattern” can also be observed in the run-up to the UN Climate Change Conference in Baku (COP29) in order to silence critical voices.
But the COP is now in the very place where Ibadoghlu is being held captive. This could also put pressure on the Azerbaijani regime. Diplomats and activists from all over the world will be flocking to Baku from next Monday. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is also aware of Ibadoghlu’s fate and is likely to raise the issue of his release in her talks with her Azerbaijani counterparts during her stay in Baku in the second week of the COP.
Members of the EU Parliament will also travel to Baku and insist on the release of the fossil critic. They recently nominated Ibadoghlu for the Sakharov Prize and have already spoken out against repression against Ibadoghlu in resolutions passed by a large majority. As a nominee for the Sakharov Prize, he has also been invited to the award ceremony in Strasbourg in December, which is why Parliament President Roberta Metsola called on the Azerbaijani government to lift his house arrest.
Ibadoghlu has long been a symbol of resistance to corruption and oppression in Azerbaijan. Things that the regime would rather not discuss too widely in public during the COP. The chances of his release are therefore not bad at the moment. However, if the efforts remain unsuccessful until the end of the COP and Baku disappears from the public eye again, it will be all the more difficult for Ibadoghlu. Lukas Knigge