Your contact for new licenses
It is a first, but one that could end in disappointment. The heads of state and government of the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are meeting today in Brussels for their first summit at the invitation of EU Council President Charles Michel.
However, most of the leaders of the Gulf states are likely to stay away from the meeting. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will also not be attending on the European side, as he will only be coming to Brussels for the EU summit on Thursday. It is also questionable whether it will be possible to agree on joint conclusions in time for the start of the meeting. The diplomats wanted to make another attempt on Tuesday evening.
There is a lot to talk about. Thanks in part to the move away from Russian energy, the EU has become the Gulf states’ second largest trading partner after China, with a volume of around €170 billion last year. There is interest on both sides in deepening the exchange.
The EU would like to relaunch the negotiations on a free trade agreement, which was frozen in 2008. However, the Gulf states show little interest as long as the Europeans insist on binding clauses on human rights and environmental standards. The Gulf states are aware that they now have the upper hand when it comes to Europe’s energy security.
In addition to trade and the discussion about visa facilitation, it is also about delicate geopolitics. The Europeans would like to steer Gulf states away from Moscow’s sphere of influence and convince them of their interpretation of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. It is unlikely that a common language on the conflict over Ukraine will be found at the summit today.
Conversely, the Gulf states are very disappointed that the EU states have not yet been able to agree on a coherent strategy for the Middle East conflict. The Europeans have also been accused of applying different standards to Gaza and Ukraine. It is quite possible that the Gulf states will be reluctant to accept Charles Michel’s invitation because they do not take the EU seriously as a geopolitical player.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is a different story. He is to travel to the EU summit in Brussels in person. Charles Michel announced that he had invited Zelensky to the top-level meeting on Thursday.
Kadri Simson said goodbye with a smile and words of warning. It will probably be her last Energy Council, said the Estonian Commissioner on Tuesday evening in Luxembourg. Previously, the ministers had mainly argued about Russian gas. If the trend of recent months continues, the EU will import eight billion cubic meters more Russian gas than in 2023, according to an analysis by the Commission. This led to intensive discussions among the ministers, reported Simson.
However, the trend is still reversible and the member states have it in their hands to import even less from Russia this year. “The EU can manage without Russian gas”, the outgoing Commissioner emphasized. However, if the member states continue to import – even beyond the pipeline capacities originally booked – or if they even negotiate new supply agreements, this is not a necessity, but “a political decision – and a dangerous one”. Simson: “We must be aware that the price of trade with Russia is not only in the cost of gas, but also in the lives of people in Ukraine”.
The ministers asked the Commissioner to influence the gas companies in their countries to end the deals. The French government is seeking public exposure – and is also seeking a confrontation with Germany. Together with other coastal states, France has been facing accusations of landing more and more liquid gas from Russia for months.
However, this does not paint a complete picture, according to a joint paper with nine other member states: “In fact, the responsibility for LNG imports in the internal market lies with the gas companies.” These would have booked terminal capacities in order to procure increasing quantities of Russian liquefied natural gas.
The ten states encourage the Commission to publish the names of the importing companies and the quantities procured in the future. Germany is not explicitly mentioned. However, no in-depth knowledge of geography is required to guess the actual addressee of the letter. The letter was also signed by the government in Vienna. Austrian companies still import large quantities of Russian gas via various channels. The current Green Minister Leonore Gewessler had presented a law aimed at forcing companies to turn back. It remains to be seen whether it will be passed under the new government.
However, not all member states with significant gas terminals have joined the French initiative. The Netherlands and Belgium, for example, are missing. Together with Finland, the Brussels government had submitted its own, weaker demand paper. It is only aimed at the ban on transshipment of LNG shipments to third countries, which will apply to EU ports from March 2025. In order to effectively enforce the ban, companies in other EU states would also have to introduce an accounting system for Russian gas.
The tone of the familiar dispute over renewables versus nuclear energy has become more heated in recent weeks. It is true that there are different approaches to energy policy, said Sven Giegold, State Secretary for Economic Affairs, in Luxembourg on Tuesday. However, Europe must focus its actions and funds on priorities, and these lie with renewables, the Green Party member reiterated in recent statements.
France’s Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher retaliated with the remark that a distinction must be made between “viable and non-viable energies” and referred to real or feigned problems with grid integration and competitiveness – which was obviously aimed at renewable energies. In the oral debate, the Minister thus sounded harsher than a communiqué from the Nuclear Alliance with several other countries.
In the first 100 days, the new Commission should present an action plan for nuclear energy and its financing and pay strict attention to technology neutrality in all relevant legislative proposals such as the Clean Industrial Deal and the 2040 climate target. Pannier-Runacher himself also called for the state aid rules to be adapted. One line of argument in the new paper is that nuclear energy benefits all EU member states. At the same time, there have been repeated efforts to use Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) to allow individual industrial sectors in countries with nuclear power plants to benefit from cheap nuclear power from power plants that have been written off.
Germany and the “Friends of Renewables” had already circulated their demands paper on Monday. In it, they call for a new amendment to the Governance Regulation and the Renewable Energy Directive as well as other relevant laws to further accelerate approval and ambitious climate policy by 2040.
At least one debate from the time of the energy crisis seems to have been settled for the time being. There had been no debate among the ministers about state intervention in energy prices, but more about structural solutions, said Hungary’s State Secretary for Energy Attila Steiner at the press conference in the evening. Greece, Bulgaria and Romania had discussed the recent sharp rise in prices in south-eastern Europe. In the meantime, increased exports to Ukraine were considered to be a factor. However, Simson ruled this out as a cause on Tuesday. Due to the severely damaged pipelines, exports have even fallen recently, added Steiner.
Michel Barnier’s government spokesperson admits that his proposals are a “fighting budget that contains unpopular measures”. The Prime Minister is proposing to significantly increase taxes on corporate profits and income from wealthy individuals. In this way, he wants to reduce France’s high budget deficit. In doing so, he is breaking with Emmanuel Macron’s priorities, who had pursued a supply-side policy. Barnier’s spokesperson Maud Bregeon appeals for understanding: the budget proposal for 2025 is intended to “prevent a crisis whose first victims would be the weakest among us”.
Parliament is due to vote on the budget on Nov. 19. With or without approval, the draft then goes to the Senate. The Senate will examine it and should make a final decision by Dec. 21 at the latest. The proposals are confusing President Macron’s camp. “There are far too many taxes”, complains former Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin. A few days earlier, MPs from the Macron camp had presented a “counter-budget” to the proposal of the two responsible ministers, Laurent Saint-Martin (budget) and Antoine Armand (economy).
To add to the confusion, the leader of the centrist MoDem party, François Bayrou – normally an ally of Macron – defended Michel Barnier. He said it was “remarkable” that the camp that was still in the majority until the elections “would criticize the new government for its efforts” to iron out its own mistakes.
The budget deficit has reached proportions that urgently call for extraordinary measures. At the end of the second quarter, French public debt amounted to €3,284 billion. This corresponds to 112 percent of French economic output (GDP), compared to 110.5 percent in the first quarter. Barnier must increase revenue by €60 billion. His budget proposal provides for almost €30 billion in tax increases.
This represents a break with one of Macron’s political taboos. It is the end of the supply-side policy that the President of the Republic has consistently pursued since taking office in 2017, explain the two economists Denis Ferrand and Olivier Redoulès.
Emmanuel Macron began this policy by lowering taxes and making the labor market more flexible. It was reinforced five years later with the reform of pension insurance and unemployment insurance. The aim was to attract foreign investment and boost investment.
This policy is monitored by the European Commission and the rating agencies. For example, the rating agency Fitch maintained its AA rating for France on Friday (Oct. 11). However, it gave it a negative outlook, which means that it is considering a downgrade in the future. “Risks related to fiscal policy have increased since our last review”, explained Fitch. The agency had previously assessed France’s public finances in April.
This year, the deficit will climb above the six percent mark. The government wants to reduce it to five percent in 2025 and below three percent by 2029. Fitch does not believe this will happen: the agency has raised its deficit forecasts for France for 2025 and 2026 “to 5.4 percent of GDP”. “We do not expect the government to meet its revised medium-term deficit forecasts to bring the deficit below three percent of GDP by 2029″, the agency writes. “Strong political fragmentation and a minority government make it difficult for France to implement sustainable fiscal consolidation measures.” After Fitch, Moody’s will issue a rating on Oct. 25, followed by S&P Global on Nov. 29.
The French are asking themselves two questions: What is the reason why the state finances have gotten so out of hand? And: Why did the previous government remain silent for so long? According to the media, there have been internal memos in the Ministry of the Economy since the fall of 2023 pointing to the slipping finances. However, political battles within the presidential camp had delayed the necessary decisions.
The public broadcaster France 2 has received a reaction from Bruno Le Maire that is raising questions in France. “The truth will come out later”, it says tellingly. Nevertheless, on Tuesday, parliament cleared the way for a committee of inquiry. The task of the inquiry: What are the causes of the collapse in budgetary policy?
On the morning of Aug. 14, Costas Kadis received a phone call and was given a day to think it over. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoloudis asked him to go to Brussels as EU Commissioner. The option came as a surprise to 57-year-old Kadis. After leaving his post as Minister of Agriculture and Environment in February 2023, he had been preparing for a future at the university.
The professor of biodiversity conservation at the private Frederick University in Cyprus first consulted with his wife and two children before agreeing. In the end, the desire for a new challenge prevailed. “It was a very difficult decision”, says Kadis.
Many in Cyprus were surprised that President Christodoloudis sent Kadis of all people to Brussels. Some saw the EU post as a reward for Kadis’ loyalty to the president. Kadis, who has no party affiliation, had supported Christodoloudis in last year’s election campaign after he left the conservative ruling party Dimokratia Synergasmos (Disy). Christodoloudis ran against the Disy candidate and won the presidential election. Kadis insists that his job was not a late thank you, there was no swap deal. “God’s honest”, he added somewhat theatrically in an interview with the daily newspaper Kathimerini.
The man with the rimless glasses says of himself: “I never planned a career in politics.” For so little political ambition, he has spent an astonishing amount of time in ministerial posts. First he was responsible for health, then for education. His political convictions are close to those of the EPP.
Christodoloudis, who knows Brussels well from his position as a diplomat at the Cypriot representation, knew that he would find favor with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen with a technocrat like Kadis. An academic with expertise in environmental issues who shows no inclination to play political power games was a good fit for von der Leyen’s personnel tableau. In the future, Kadis will be responsible for fisheries and oceans. He himself publicly listed the topic of the sea as a preference after his appointment became known.
Costas Kadis had already studied the ecology of the Mediterranean as a post-graduate student. As a Cypriot, he already has an affinity for oceans and the environment. The divided island state is suffering so much from climate change that it is predicted that its beaches could disappear by 2100.
Environmental experts regret that von der Leyen has separated the environment and oceans portfolios. In her mission letter, she calls on Kadis, among other things, to create a European Ocean Pact to ensure that all policy areas relating to the oceans are interlinked. Kadis should also ensure that the Common Fisheries Policy is implemented effectively – and create a vision for the future with Horizon 2040.
Non-governmental organizations point out that the laws affecting the oceans have been monitored far too little to date. “If Commissioner-designate Kadis is to succeed in his mandate, he must step up efforts to ensure that existing laws are complied with“, demands John Condon from ClientEarth, for example. An association of leading NGOs expressed concerns that the well-being of the oceans in von der Leyen’s Commission “only exists on paper”.
A scandal surrounding a waste treatment plant is likely to come up during his hearing in parliament. In 2015, Cyprus received more than €46 million from the EU to build the plant, as Politico reported. Contrary to the agreements, the fuel that was produced was never sold, but buried instead. Costas Kadis denies any responsibility for this. The Ministry of the Environment refers to a legal dispute with the subcontractor responsible. The MPs are likely to have questions about this. Silke Wettach
It is a first, but one that could end in disappointment. The heads of state and government of the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are meeting today in Brussels for their first summit at the invitation of EU Council President Charles Michel.
However, most of the leaders of the Gulf states are likely to stay away from the meeting. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will also not be attending on the European side, as he will only be coming to Brussels for the EU summit on Thursday. It is also questionable whether it will be possible to agree on joint conclusions in time for the start of the meeting. The diplomats wanted to make another attempt on Tuesday evening.
There is a lot to talk about. Thanks in part to the move away from Russian energy, the EU has become the Gulf states’ second largest trading partner after China, with a volume of around €170 billion last year. There is interest on both sides in deepening the exchange.
The EU would like to relaunch the negotiations on a free trade agreement, which was frozen in 2008. However, the Gulf states show little interest as long as the Europeans insist on binding clauses on human rights and environmental standards. The Gulf states are aware that they now have the upper hand when it comes to Europe’s energy security.
In addition to trade and the discussion about visa facilitation, it is also about delicate geopolitics. The Europeans would like to steer Gulf states away from Moscow’s sphere of influence and convince them of their interpretation of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. It is unlikely that a common language on the conflict over Ukraine will be found at the summit today.
Conversely, the Gulf states are very disappointed that the EU states have not yet been able to agree on a coherent strategy for the Middle East conflict. The Europeans have also been accused of applying different standards to Gaza and Ukraine. It is quite possible that the Gulf states will be reluctant to accept Charles Michel’s invitation because they do not take the EU seriously as a geopolitical player.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is a different story. He is to travel to the EU summit in Brussels in person. Charles Michel announced that he had invited Zelensky to the top-level meeting on Thursday.
Kadri Simson said goodbye with a smile and words of warning. It will probably be her last Energy Council, said the Estonian Commissioner on Tuesday evening in Luxembourg. Previously, the ministers had mainly argued about Russian gas. If the trend of recent months continues, the EU will import eight billion cubic meters more Russian gas than in 2023, according to an analysis by the Commission. This led to intensive discussions among the ministers, reported Simson.
However, the trend is still reversible and the member states have it in their hands to import even less from Russia this year. “The EU can manage without Russian gas”, the outgoing Commissioner emphasized. However, if the member states continue to import – even beyond the pipeline capacities originally booked – or if they even negotiate new supply agreements, this is not a necessity, but “a political decision – and a dangerous one”. Simson: “We must be aware that the price of trade with Russia is not only in the cost of gas, but also in the lives of people in Ukraine”.
The ministers asked the Commissioner to influence the gas companies in their countries to end the deals. The French government is seeking public exposure – and is also seeking a confrontation with Germany. Together with other coastal states, France has been facing accusations of landing more and more liquid gas from Russia for months.
However, this does not paint a complete picture, according to a joint paper with nine other member states: “In fact, the responsibility for LNG imports in the internal market lies with the gas companies.” These would have booked terminal capacities in order to procure increasing quantities of Russian liquefied natural gas.
The ten states encourage the Commission to publish the names of the importing companies and the quantities procured in the future. Germany is not explicitly mentioned. However, no in-depth knowledge of geography is required to guess the actual addressee of the letter. The letter was also signed by the government in Vienna. Austrian companies still import large quantities of Russian gas via various channels. The current Green Minister Leonore Gewessler had presented a law aimed at forcing companies to turn back. It remains to be seen whether it will be passed under the new government.
However, not all member states with significant gas terminals have joined the French initiative. The Netherlands and Belgium, for example, are missing. Together with Finland, the Brussels government had submitted its own, weaker demand paper. It is only aimed at the ban on transshipment of LNG shipments to third countries, which will apply to EU ports from March 2025. In order to effectively enforce the ban, companies in other EU states would also have to introduce an accounting system for Russian gas.
The tone of the familiar dispute over renewables versus nuclear energy has become more heated in recent weeks. It is true that there are different approaches to energy policy, said Sven Giegold, State Secretary for Economic Affairs, in Luxembourg on Tuesday. However, Europe must focus its actions and funds on priorities, and these lie with renewables, the Green Party member reiterated in recent statements.
France’s Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher retaliated with the remark that a distinction must be made between “viable and non-viable energies” and referred to real or feigned problems with grid integration and competitiveness – which was obviously aimed at renewable energies. In the oral debate, the Minister thus sounded harsher than a communiqué from the Nuclear Alliance with several other countries.
In the first 100 days, the new Commission should present an action plan for nuclear energy and its financing and pay strict attention to technology neutrality in all relevant legislative proposals such as the Clean Industrial Deal and the 2040 climate target. Pannier-Runacher himself also called for the state aid rules to be adapted. One line of argument in the new paper is that nuclear energy benefits all EU member states. At the same time, there have been repeated efforts to use Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) to allow individual industrial sectors in countries with nuclear power plants to benefit from cheap nuclear power from power plants that have been written off.
Germany and the “Friends of Renewables” had already circulated their demands paper on Monday. In it, they call for a new amendment to the Governance Regulation and the Renewable Energy Directive as well as other relevant laws to further accelerate approval and ambitious climate policy by 2040.
At least one debate from the time of the energy crisis seems to have been settled for the time being. There had been no debate among the ministers about state intervention in energy prices, but more about structural solutions, said Hungary’s State Secretary for Energy Attila Steiner at the press conference in the evening. Greece, Bulgaria and Romania had discussed the recent sharp rise in prices in south-eastern Europe. In the meantime, increased exports to Ukraine were considered to be a factor. However, Simson ruled this out as a cause on Tuesday. Due to the severely damaged pipelines, exports have even fallen recently, added Steiner.
Michel Barnier’s government spokesperson admits that his proposals are a “fighting budget that contains unpopular measures”. The Prime Minister is proposing to significantly increase taxes on corporate profits and income from wealthy individuals. In this way, he wants to reduce France’s high budget deficit. In doing so, he is breaking with Emmanuel Macron’s priorities, who had pursued a supply-side policy. Barnier’s spokesperson Maud Bregeon appeals for understanding: the budget proposal for 2025 is intended to “prevent a crisis whose first victims would be the weakest among us”.
Parliament is due to vote on the budget on Nov. 19. With or without approval, the draft then goes to the Senate. The Senate will examine it and should make a final decision by Dec. 21 at the latest. The proposals are confusing President Macron’s camp. “There are far too many taxes”, complains former Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin. A few days earlier, MPs from the Macron camp had presented a “counter-budget” to the proposal of the two responsible ministers, Laurent Saint-Martin (budget) and Antoine Armand (economy).
To add to the confusion, the leader of the centrist MoDem party, François Bayrou – normally an ally of Macron – defended Michel Barnier. He said it was “remarkable” that the camp that was still in the majority until the elections “would criticize the new government for its efforts” to iron out its own mistakes.
The budget deficit has reached proportions that urgently call for extraordinary measures. At the end of the second quarter, French public debt amounted to €3,284 billion. This corresponds to 112 percent of French economic output (GDP), compared to 110.5 percent in the first quarter. Barnier must increase revenue by €60 billion. His budget proposal provides for almost €30 billion in tax increases.
This represents a break with one of Macron’s political taboos. It is the end of the supply-side policy that the President of the Republic has consistently pursued since taking office in 2017, explain the two economists Denis Ferrand and Olivier Redoulès.
Emmanuel Macron began this policy by lowering taxes and making the labor market more flexible. It was reinforced five years later with the reform of pension insurance and unemployment insurance. The aim was to attract foreign investment and boost investment.
This policy is monitored by the European Commission and the rating agencies. For example, the rating agency Fitch maintained its AA rating for France on Friday (Oct. 11). However, it gave it a negative outlook, which means that it is considering a downgrade in the future. “Risks related to fiscal policy have increased since our last review”, explained Fitch. The agency had previously assessed France’s public finances in April.
This year, the deficit will climb above the six percent mark. The government wants to reduce it to five percent in 2025 and below three percent by 2029. Fitch does not believe this will happen: the agency has raised its deficit forecasts for France for 2025 and 2026 “to 5.4 percent of GDP”. “We do not expect the government to meet its revised medium-term deficit forecasts to bring the deficit below three percent of GDP by 2029″, the agency writes. “Strong political fragmentation and a minority government make it difficult for France to implement sustainable fiscal consolidation measures.” After Fitch, Moody’s will issue a rating on Oct. 25, followed by S&P Global on Nov. 29.
The French are asking themselves two questions: What is the reason why the state finances have gotten so out of hand? And: Why did the previous government remain silent for so long? According to the media, there have been internal memos in the Ministry of the Economy since the fall of 2023 pointing to the slipping finances. However, political battles within the presidential camp had delayed the necessary decisions.
The public broadcaster France 2 has received a reaction from Bruno Le Maire that is raising questions in France. “The truth will come out later”, it says tellingly. Nevertheless, on Tuesday, parliament cleared the way for a committee of inquiry. The task of the inquiry: What are the causes of the collapse in budgetary policy?
On the morning of Aug. 14, Costas Kadis received a phone call and was given a day to think it over. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoloudis asked him to go to Brussels as EU Commissioner. The option came as a surprise to 57-year-old Kadis. After leaving his post as Minister of Agriculture and Environment in February 2023, he had been preparing for a future at the university.
The professor of biodiversity conservation at the private Frederick University in Cyprus first consulted with his wife and two children before agreeing. In the end, the desire for a new challenge prevailed. “It was a very difficult decision”, says Kadis.
Many in Cyprus were surprised that President Christodoloudis sent Kadis of all people to Brussels. Some saw the EU post as a reward for Kadis’ loyalty to the president. Kadis, who has no party affiliation, had supported Christodoloudis in last year’s election campaign after he left the conservative ruling party Dimokratia Synergasmos (Disy). Christodoloudis ran against the Disy candidate and won the presidential election. Kadis insists that his job was not a late thank you, there was no swap deal. “God’s honest”, he added somewhat theatrically in an interview with the daily newspaper Kathimerini.
The man with the rimless glasses says of himself: “I never planned a career in politics.” For so little political ambition, he has spent an astonishing amount of time in ministerial posts. First he was responsible for health, then for education. His political convictions are close to those of the EPP.
Christodoloudis, who knows Brussels well from his position as a diplomat at the Cypriot representation, knew that he would find favor with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen with a technocrat like Kadis. An academic with expertise in environmental issues who shows no inclination to play political power games was a good fit for von der Leyen’s personnel tableau. In the future, Kadis will be responsible for fisheries and oceans. He himself publicly listed the topic of the sea as a preference after his appointment became known.
Costas Kadis had already studied the ecology of the Mediterranean as a post-graduate student. As a Cypriot, he already has an affinity for oceans and the environment. The divided island state is suffering so much from climate change that it is predicted that its beaches could disappear by 2100.
Environmental experts regret that von der Leyen has separated the environment and oceans portfolios. In her mission letter, she calls on Kadis, among other things, to create a European Ocean Pact to ensure that all policy areas relating to the oceans are interlinked. Kadis should also ensure that the Common Fisheries Policy is implemented effectively – and create a vision for the future with Horizon 2040.
Non-governmental organizations point out that the laws affecting the oceans have been monitored far too little to date. “If Commissioner-designate Kadis is to succeed in his mandate, he must step up efforts to ensure that existing laws are complied with“, demands John Condon from ClientEarth, for example. An association of leading NGOs expressed concerns that the well-being of the oceans in von der Leyen’s Commission “only exists on paper”.
A scandal surrounding a waste treatment plant is likely to come up during his hearing in parliament. In 2015, Cyprus received more than €46 million from the EU to build the plant, as Politico reported. Contrary to the agreements, the fuel that was produced was never sold, but buried instead. Costas Kadis denies any responsibility for this. The Ministry of the Environment refers to a legal dispute with the subcontractor responsible. The MPs are likely to have questions about this. Silke Wettach