It is already clear that the vast majority of “leaders” are traveling to the informal council in Budapest on Nov. 8 with mixed feelings. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will once again use the stage for self-promotion. At best, his Slovakian counterpart Robert Fico, a brother in spirit, is looking forward to the appearance with sympathy.
Everyone else wants the meeting to send out a political signal. There are no conclusions at informal summits, only declarations. EU diplomats are currently fine-tuning the “Budapest Declaration on the new EU competition deal”. As Table.Briefings has learned in advance, the Commission is to be asked to present a “comprehensive industrial strategy for competitive industries and ambitious jobs“.
The member states are also concerned about whether the EU is sufficiently positioned in terms of digitalization. The Council will support the “development of a world-class quantum technology and AI ecosystem for the whole of Europe”. The heads of state and government therefore “invite” the Commission to present a “tech strategy”.
The Council also calls on the Commission to present a vision for the sector following the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of Agriculture. The President of the Commission has already commissioned the Commissioner-designate for Agriculture, Christophe Hansen, to do this for the first 100 days.
Have a good weekend!
Georgia’s parliamentary elections on Saturday are about the country’s European perspective and the EU’s influence in the region. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell spoke of a moment of truth in the run-up to the elections. The population would decide whether Georgia would become part of Europe or turn its back on it. The forecasts do not paint a clear picture. A stalemate is likely, in which the pro-Russian ruling party Georgian Dream, which is expected to be the strongest force, will try to buy or otherwise win over parts of the fragmented opposition.
During the election campaign, Bidzina Ivanishvili, billionaire and founder of the Georgian Dream, threatened to ban “anti-patriotic” opposition parties. The opposition and civil society have been under massive pressure since the adoption of a so-called agent law based on the Russian model, among other things. Yesterday, Thursday, the financial police carried out raids on two employees of NGOs that had just published a report on Russian influence in Georgia.
The repressive and intimidating approach shows that Georgia’s government has become increasingly authoritarian and has moved closer to Vladimir Putin, said Austrian MEP Thomas Waitz.
The co-chair of the European Greens is calling for sanctions to be imposed on billionaire Ivanishvili in the event of irregularities in the election. So far, the EU has been reluctant to do so because the oligarch controls large parts of the country’s economy. According to media reports, the USA is also preparing sanctions against the strongman in Tbilisi. The days following the election are likely to be particularly critical if the opposition performs better than expected.
During the election campaign, Georgian Dream put up posters accusing the opposition of wanting to drag the country into a confrontation between the West and Russia, playing on the fears of a population traumatized by the wars over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The parliamentary election is a decision between “war and peace”. The ruling party is also campaigning to defend “traditional values”. At the beginning of the month, a law came into force that restricts the rights of homosexuals and other members of sexual minorities.
According to the ruling party, they wanted to protect the country from “immoral propaganda” from the West. However, Georgian Dream politicians like to send their daughters and sons to study abroad or own real estate there.
Moldova has a pro-European government and a population under the influence of Russian disinformation campaigns. In Georgia, the ruling party runs the Russian propaganda itself. The paradox is that, unlike in Moldova, the population is decidedly pro-European. According to surveys, 80 percent are in favor of integration into the EU and as many as two-thirds are in favor of joining NATO.
The EU is therefore also likely to shy away from using the suspension of visa-free travel as a lever. However, following the adoption of the pro-Russian agent law and massive pressure against civil society, the EU has de facto put the accession process on hold and blocked funds.
There are several reasons why the pro-European attitude is only expressed to a limited extent in votes for the government’s opponents: Firstly, the government’s massive propaganda is bearing fruit. In addition, the opposition is weakened by strong fragmentation. Former President Mikheil Saakashvili has been in prison since 2021 on obscure charges.
For the first time, the 150-seat parliament will be elected by proportional representation, with a five percent threshold. According to one poll, Georgian Dream could get around a third of the vote and four opposition coalitions together 55%. However, another forecast puts the ruling party at just under 60 percent, with only two opposition groups clearing the five percent hurdle and gaining 24 percent of the vote.
However, Bidzina Ivanishvili is seeking a two-thirds majority in order to be able to reshape the constitution according to his ideas.
Ineffective institutions and a lack of sovereignty of the law hinder the progress of a state and the prosperity of its citizens. This is one of the research hypotheses of the three economists who were awarded the Nobel Prize this year. If proof were needed, Bulgaria could provide it. For years, the country’s politicians have demonstrated a lack of willingness to cooperate and even destructive confrontation. Two-thirds of those entitled to vote now acknowledge this by abstaining from voting.
The centrist Citizens for European Development (GERB) party led by former Prime Minister Boiko Borissov has a simple majority among the remaining third of the electorate. As was last the case in the parliamentary elections in June 2024, it is also likely to emerge as the strongest political force in the elections to the 51st Bulgarian People’s Assembly.
For second place, the conservative-liberal party alliance of We Continue the Change (PP) and Democratic Bulgaria (DB) will probably be in a tight race with the Russia-friendly nationalists of the Rebirth party. The post-communist Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), the micro-party Such a People Exists (ITN) and, for the first time, two hostile factions of the Party of Bulgarian Turks Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), which split spectacularly in July 2024, are competing for the rear ranks.
After winning the election in June 2024, Borissov’s GERB failed to find a parliamentary majority for a minority cabinet. Early elections were once again unavoidable. This time, a coalition of the two Euro-Atlantic political forces GERB and PP/DB is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the formation of a stable government. In purely mathematical terms, a third coalition partner will be necessary. However, this makes it questionable whether and, if so, how it can come about. However, GERB leader Borissov is determined to avoid an eighth election in four years next spring. “We will negotiate with everyone except Rebirth“, he has therefore declared.
The political instability of recent years, with two short-lived regular and frequently changing caretaker governments, has been detrimental to the economic development of the Balkan country. Even 17 years after joining the European Union, it is still the poorest EU country. According to Eurostat data, the purchasing power of Bulgarians last year was just 64% of the EU average.
Bulgaria’s convergence process is also not progressing as quickly as hoped politically. The country was granted access to the Schengen area by sea and air at the end of March 2024. However, it was denied the introduction of Schengen rules at its land borders because Austria has reservations about Bulgaria’s protection of the EU’s external borders against illegal migration. The Netherlands had also previously vetoed the proposal on the grounds that Bulgaria was not doing enough to combat corruption.
Bulgaria has been stuck in the so-called euro waiting room ERM II since July 2020. While Croatia, which joined the exchange rate mechanism at the same time, was able to introduce the euro at the beginning of 2023, Bulgaria had to postpone its entry into the eurozone several times because it failed to meet the price stability criterion. The end of next year is now seen as the earliest possible date for the changeover from the Bulgarian lev to the euro.
“We will lose billions”, warned Ludmilla Petkova, Minister of Finance in the caretaker government, recently about her country’s delays in drawing up the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NPAR). At their last parliamentary session before the election on Sept. 26, 2024, MPs were supposed to give the government a mandate to make changes to the NPAR as requested by the EU Commission. However, in order to prevent a reduction in the lifetimes of the national coal-fired power plants, nationalists and populists unceremoniously blocked the lectern and broke up the session. Bulgaria now risks no longer being able to implement planned NPAR projects within the deadline of August 2026 and losing considerable EU funding.
Election fatigue is not only unmistakable among voters but also among the political parties. As a result, the election campaign lacks substantial debates on the country’s problems. Instead, it is characterized by TV images of police operations against attempted election manipulation, which have been a familiar feature of all elections for many years.
For the elections from 2013 to 2021, the investigative-journalistic Anti-Corruption Fund (AKF) published evidence of vote buying and checked ballots for 1,738 of the 11,000 or so polling stations. According to the AKF, the strongest suspicions were directed at the GERB, DPS and BSP parties.
“Deeply concerned” and ready to react: The EU states have reacted with clear criticism to the reports of North Korean soldiers in Russia. Russia’s intensified cooperation with North Korea sends a clear message, according to a statement by the European Council on Thursday evening: “Despite its declared willingness to negotiate, Russia is not interested in a just, comprehensive and lasting peace.” The EU states announced a reaction in coordination with international partners to the developments between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Russia is pursuing several goals with the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, and military cooperation with North Korea: Among other things, Russia wants to show both internally and externally that it is not isolated. “It’s no coincidence that the presence of North Korean soldiers was announced at almost the same time as the BRICS meeting”, says Ulrich Kühn from the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH). In concrete terms, two state leaders who are united “in their hatred of the West” are cooperating.
Kühn and other experts see the development surrounding the deployment of North Korean soldiers – between 3,000 and 11,000 men, depending on the source – as “a clear escalation of the Russian war against Ukraine, because a third state could now actively intervene with soldiers”.
“I assume that we will soon see these soldiers on the front line, either in Russia itself in the Kursk region or in the occupied territories in Ukraine”, says the head of the Arms Control and New Technologies research department at IFSH.
During his visit to Pyongyang in June, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for an “all-encompassing strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea“. The Duma has now ratified it. Following Putin’s signature, it could soon come into force. The treaty (original in Russian here) states, among other things:
“If one side is attacked by force by any other State or States and is thereby placed in a state of war, the other side shall immediately render military and other assistance by any means at its disposal in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and the laws of Russia and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.”
Officially, Russia is not waging a war, but a “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Satellite images, photos and video recordings of North Korean soldiers on Russian territory have sparked international outrage. Following deliveries of various weapons from Iran and North Korea, foreign soldiers – sent by a state and not recruited as private individuals – have a new “quality”, says Ulrich Kühn. “This is extremely worrying for Europe.”
However, the security expert sees little scope for action for the West at the moment. The Ukraine aid workers’ hands are tied because they have ruled out sending their own soldiers to Ukraine.
Russia is once again succeeding in stressing the West and ensuring that it is preoccupied with a potential threat to itself. This is playing into the hands of political forces in Europe who are questioning aid to Ukraine, explains IFSH researcher Kühn. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi had already said in Brussels in mid-October in response to initial rumors about North Korean soldiers: “This is the first step towards a world war.” South Korea is now considering supplying weapons to Ukraine after all, contrary to previous practice.
Oct. 30, 2024
Weekly commission meeting
Topics: Enlargement package 2024, presentation of the Niinistö report. Draft agenda
With the votes of the EPP, ECR and the two far-right political groups of the “Patriots” (PfE) and “Sovereignists” (ESN), the committee of political group leaders has decided that the Venezuelan opposition will receive this year’s Sakharov Prize. The winners are María Corina Machado, the leader of the Democratic Rally, and Eduardo González Urrutia, who won the presidential election but whose victory is not recognized by the regime in Caracas.
The organizations Women Wage Peace and Women of the Sun from Israel and Palestine were supported by S&D and Renew. The Azerbaijani opposition activist Gubad Ibadoghlu received the support of the Greens and the Left. The Freedom of Thought Prize will be awarded on Dec. 18 in Strasbourg.
Recently, majorities for EPP positions were achieved several times because the EPP voted together with the ECR and the two far-right groups. Politicians from S&D, Renew and the Greens accuse EPP leader Manfred Weber of making common cause with the far right. Weber rejects the accusations: the EPP could not help it if the far-right voted with them. mgr
In the negotiations on a declaration on the future of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which 26 of 27 EU agriculture ministers adopted this week, German Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir urged in vain that budget issues be excluded. Instead, the EU agriculture ministers state in the declaration that “dedicated and adequate” funds are needed for the CAP. However, they concede that they do not want to anticipate the next EU Multiannual Financial Framework( MFF).
The Hungarian EU Council Presidency had insisted that the CAP be retained as a separate budget item. According to Özdemir, he had supported this for the sake of compromise. However, the German government believes that the debate on a possible new structure of the (MFF) should be conducted separately from the debate on the CAP after 2027, according to the Federal Ministry of Agriculture (BMEL).
The background to the debate is the reform ideas for the MFF that were recently leaked from the EU Commission. In these, agricultural subsidies would no longer be a separate budget item. Criticism has come from the German Farmers’ Association (DBV), among others. The BMEL has so far refused to comment on the content. However, representatives of the Federal Government have shown themselves to be open to reforms in discussions with Table.Briefings.
However, the conclusions on the CAP were not adopted unanimously for completely different reasons. The point of contention is so-called external convergence, i.e. the gradual harmonization of direct payments between “old” and “newer” EU countries. Romania wants to speed up this process, but was unable to get its way. This dispute between the EU member states is likely to flare up when the EU agricultural budget is distributed among the member states during the MFF negotiations. jd
Following a protracted legal dispute, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) on Thursday finally confirmed the annulment of a fine of €1.06 billion imposed on Intel by the European Commission. The fine was originally imposed by the Commission in May 2009. It accused the US chip manufacturer of granting anti-competitive rebates and thus abusing its dominant position in the x86 processor market. The beneficiaries of the rebates were major customers such as Dell and HP or the electronics retailer Media Markt Saturn, while the victims were competitors such as AMD.
The case dragged on for over 15 years and led to several judgments. Initially, the court rejected Intel’s appeal against the fine in 2014. In 2017, however, the ECJ overturned this ruling and referred the case back for reconsideration. In January 2022, the Court annulled the Commission’s decision in part and lifted the fine in full.
The court criticized the Commission’s economic analysis and ruled that the evidence submitted was not sufficient to prove the alleged anti-competitive effects of the discounts. In particular, the Commission had applied the as-efficient competitor test incorrectly, which led to considerable doubts as to the validity of the allegations.
The Commission in turn appealed against this ruling, but it has now been definitively rejected by the ECJ. The ruling is a setback for the EU competition authority and has potentially far-reaching implications for future antitrust proceedings, particularly in the assessment of discount practices. The ruling leaves open whether Intel actually abused its market power. vis
E-commerce, artificial intelligence and cloud services will be among the biggest growth drivers of the global economy in the future. According to a recent study by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) think tank, these industries, together with other key technologies, could generate up to $48 trillion in sales and $6 trillion in profits by 2040.
The study introduces the term “competitive arenas” to describe industries that are characterized by above-average growth and high dynamics. These arenas differ from traditional sectors in their ability to change rapidly and capture disproportionately high market shares. “Today’s arenas of competition are drivers of innovation and are expected to form new centers of growth in the global economy”, says Chris Bradley of MGI.
The most important of the 18 arenas are:
In addition to the three leading arenas, electric vehicles, semiconductors and digital advertising are also among the key future fields. According to the authors of the McKinsey study, the 18 competitive arenas could account for around 16% of global GDP and more than a third of global economic growth by 2040. They already have a strong influence on innovation and the global market structure and will play an even more central role in the global economy in the coming years.
The new EU Commission has placed the topics of increasing competitiveness and innovation at the top of its political agenda. vis
The Family Business Foundation is calling for faster results in reducing bureaucracy in the EU. “Europe must eliminate its structural weaknesses”, says the Brussels Declaration, which was drawn up by the Foundation’s Board of Trustees following a meeting in Brussels. These include “obstacles in the internal market” and “chronic over-regulation”. Europe thrives on trust. And this includes the claim that the EU remains an economic powerhouse and delivers on its economic promises.
“This trust is at stake”, says the statement, which is available to Table.Briefings. Despite many political assurances, the reduction in bureaucracy is not making any progress. “Family businesses are waiting in vain for tangible relief.” The announced reduction in reporting obligations is coming to nothing. This is another reason why the EU economy is increasingly falling behind. EU policy must take effective countermeasures: “This does not require more money, but noticeably less burden: Good location conditions are crucial”, writes the organization. mgr
Europe’s auditors have given almost all EU agencies a positive report card for their financial management last year. Only four of the 43 EU agencies examined, such as the European Labor Authority (ELA), received a warning for their expenditure, according to a new report by the Luxembourg-based EU Court of Auditors. Overall, however, the handling of revenue and expenditure by all agencies audited in 2023 was sound.
The agencies are based in various EU countries and employ more than 16,000 people, according to the report. The agencies’ total budget in 2023 was over €4 billion. Most agencies are funded almost entirely from the EU budget.
“The financial management of the EU agencies is generally good, but we continue to find errors in the awarding of public contracts”, criticized François-Roger Cazala from the Court of Auditors. The Court of Auditors found irregularities in the award procedures of three of the four agencies that received warnings.
According to the information provided, these are the Labor Authority ELA based in Slovakia and the Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) based in Greece. The Court of Auditors has also issued a warning to eu-LISA, the agency responsible for large-scale IT systems, which is based in Estonia. The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) based in Hungary, on the other hand, is criticized for its estimated error rate in the grants it manages. dpa

It wasn’t so long ago that Hadja Lahbib and Ursula von der Leyen were arguing about the right course. Lahbib, the Belgian Foreign Minister, stood up for the Palestinians in Gaza and lashed out against Israel. In contrast, Commission President von der Leyen always emphasized Israel’s right to self-defense. The dispute overshadowed the Belgian EU Presidency, which ended in June.
A quarter of a year later, Lahbib is to join von der Leyen’s new team and become Commissioner for Preparedness and Crisis Management and Gender Equality. This comes as a surprise even to those familiar with Belgian politics. Until recently, Didier Reynders, who is still Commissioner for Justice, was considered the favorite – he has plenty of experience. Lahbib, on the other hand, is considered inexperienced and sometimes unpredictable.
The fact that she was nominated at the last minute is also down to von der Leyen herself: she had called for”more women” for her second term of office. Lahbib is a woman, she sees herself as a feminist. However, the final decision lay with the leader of the Walloon Liberals, Georges-Louis Bouchez. He had opted for renewal, Bouchez explained his surprising choice.
The response was ambivalent – because opinions are divided on Lahbib. The Flemish press commented on the nomination with malice. The 54-year-old is a “lightweight” and has so little stature that “the EU professionals in Brussels will put her on a cracker and eat her as an amuse-gueule”, wrote the newspaper “Het Nieuwsblad”. “Clumsy and invisible“, was the verdict of “De Morgen”.
The verdict is completely different in Wallonia, where Lahbib was born in 1970 as the daughter of Algerian immigrants. There, she is described as passionate and committed and celebrated as a symbol of successful integration. Lahbib is an “icon of multicultural society”, writes “Le Soir”. However, her political record so far has been comparatively meager.
Bouchez praises his candidate for her “brilliant work” during the Belgian Council Presidency. The strong man of the Belgian Liberals also emphasizes her experience as a reporter in crisis areas. She has worked as a journalist for the francophone RTBF since 1997. As a correspondent, she has reported from the Middle East, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Chad.
However, her political career did not begin until 2022, when Bouchez appointed her as the successor to Foreign Minister Sophie Wilmès, who had resigned from office for personal reasons. Lahbib immediately came under fire – because a year earlier, she had visited Crimea at Russia’s invitation while still a journalist. Ukraine condemned the “illegal” trip.
Hadja Lahbib made up for the faux pas with a visit to Kyiv. Since then, she has been considered a loyal friend of Ukraine. But then came the next scandal. This time it was about a conference of mayors in Brussels, which was also attended by Iranians. Who had issued the visas? Lahbib made excuses by saying that the Brussels region was responsible for this, not her foreign ministry.
However, she was then able to celebrate a diplomatic success in the form of a prisoner exchange with Iran – the Belgian aid worker Olivier Vandecasteele was released. Since then, the dust has settled around the minister, who was also responsible for trade and culture in addition to foreign policy. At the hearing in the European Parliament, however, she must be prepared for unpleasant questions. Eric Bonse
It is already clear that the vast majority of “leaders” are traveling to the informal council in Budapest on Nov. 8 with mixed feelings. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will once again use the stage for self-promotion. At best, his Slovakian counterpart Robert Fico, a brother in spirit, is looking forward to the appearance with sympathy.
Everyone else wants the meeting to send out a political signal. There are no conclusions at informal summits, only declarations. EU diplomats are currently fine-tuning the “Budapest Declaration on the new EU competition deal”. As Table.Briefings has learned in advance, the Commission is to be asked to present a “comprehensive industrial strategy for competitive industries and ambitious jobs“.
The member states are also concerned about whether the EU is sufficiently positioned in terms of digitalization. The Council will support the “development of a world-class quantum technology and AI ecosystem for the whole of Europe”. The heads of state and government therefore “invite” the Commission to present a “tech strategy”.
The Council also calls on the Commission to present a vision for the sector following the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of Agriculture. The President of the Commission has already commissioned the Commissioner-designate for Agriculture, Christophe Hansen, to do this for the first 100 days.
Have a good weekend!
Georgia’s parliamentary elections on Saturday are about the country’s European perspective and the EU’s influence in the region. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell spoke of a moment of truth in the run-up to the elections. The population would decide whether Georgia would become part of Europe or turn its back on it. The forecasts do not paint a clear picture. A stalemate is likely, in which the pro-Russian ruling party Georgian Dream, which is expected to be the strongest force, will try to buy or otherwise win over parts of the fragmented opposition.
During the election campaign, Bidzina Ivanishvili, billionaire and founder of the Georgian Dream, threatened to ban “anti-patriotic” opposition parties. The opposition and civil society have been under massive pressure since the adoption of a so-called agent law based on the Russian model, among other things. Yesterday, Thursday, the financial police carried out raids on two employees of NGOs that had just published a report on Russian influence in Georgia.
The repressive and intimidating approach shows that Georgia’s government has become increasingly authoritarian and has moved closer to Vladimir Putin, said Austrian MEP Thomas Waitz.
The co-chair of the European Greens is calling for sanctions to be imposed on billionaire Ivanishvili in the event of irregularities in the election. So far, the EU has been reluctant to do so because the oligarch controls large parts of the country’s economy. According to media reports, the USA is also preparing sanctions against the strongman in Tbilisi. The days following the election are likely to be particularly critical if the opposition performs better than expected.
During the election campaign, Georgian Dream put up posters accusing the opposition of wanting to drag the country into a confrontation between the West and Russia, playing on the fears of a population traumatized by the wars over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The parliamentary election is a decision between “war and peace”. The ruling party is also campaigning to defend “traditional values”. At the beginning of the month, a law came into force that restricts the rights of homosexuals and other members of sexual minorities.
According to the ruling party, they wanted to protect the country from “immoral propaganda” from the West. However, Georgian Dream politicians like to send their daughters and sons to study abroad or own real estate there.
Moldova has a pro-European government and a population under the influence of Russian disinformation campaigns. In Georgia, the ruling party runs the Russian propaganda itself. The paradox is that, unlike in Moldova, the population is decidedly pro-European. According to surveys, 80 percent are in favor of integration into the EU and as many as two-thirds are in favor of joining NATO.
The EU is therefore also likely to shy away from using the suspension of visa-free travel as a lever. However, following the adoption of the pro-Russian agent law and massive pressure against civil society, the EU has de facto put the accession process on hold and blocked funds.
There are several reasons why the pro-European attitude is only expressed to a limited extent in votes for the government’s opponents: Firstly, the government’s massive propaganda is bearing fruit. In addition, the opposition is weakened by strong fragmentation. Former President Mikheil Saakashvili has been in prison since 2021 on obscure charges.
For the first time, the 150-seat parliament will be elected by proportional representation, with a five percent threshold. According to one poll, Georgian Dream could get around a third of the vote and four opposition coalitions together 55%. However, another forecast puts the ruling party at just under 60 percent, with only two opposition groups clearing the five percent hurdle and gaining 24 percent of the vote.
However, Bidzina Ivanishvili is seeking a two-thirds majority in order to be able to reshape the constitution according to his ideas.
Ineffective institutions and a lack of sovereignty of the law hinder the progress of a state and the prosperity of its citizens. This is one of the research hypotheses of the three economists who were awarded the Nobel Prize this year. If proof were needed, Bulgaria could provide it. For years, the country’s politicians have demonstrated a lack of willingness to cooperate and even destructive confrontation. Two-thirds of those entitled to vote now acknowledge this by abstaining from voting.
The centrist Citizens for European Development (GERB) party led by former Prime Minister Boiko Borissov has a simple majority among the remaining third of the electorate. As was last the case in the parliamentary elections in June 2024, it is also likely to emerge as the strongest political force in the elections to the 51st Bulgarian People’s Assembly.
For second place, the conservative-liberal party alliance of We Continue the Change (PP) and Democratic Bulgaria (DB) will probably be in a tight race with the Russia-friendly nationalists of the Rebirth party. The post-communist Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), the micro-party Such a People Exists (ITN) and, for the first time, two hostile factions of the Party of Bulgarian Turks Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), which split spectacularly in July 2024, are competing for the rear ranks.
After winning the election in June 2024, Borissov’s GERB failed to find a parliamentary majority for a minority cabinet. Early elections were once again unavoidable. This time, a coalition of the two Euro-Atlantic political forces GERB and PP/DB is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the formation of a stable government. In purely mathematical terms, a third coalition partner will be necessary. However, this makes it questionable whether and, if so, how it can come about. However, GERB leader Borissov is determined to avoid an eighth election in four years next spring. “We will negotiate with everyone except Rebirth“, he has therefore declared.
The political instability of recent years, with two short-lived regular and frequently changing caretaker governments, has been detrimental to the economic development of the Balkan country. Even 17 years after joining the European Union, it is still the poorest EU country. According to Eurostat data, the purchasing power of Bulgarians last year was just 64% of the EU average.
Bulgaria’s convergence process is also not progressing as quickly as hoped politically. The country was granted access to the Schengen area by sea and air at the end of March 2024. However, it was denied the introduction of Schengen rules at its land borders because Austria has reservations about Bulgaria’s protection of the EU’s external borders against illegal migration. The Netherlands had also previously vetoed the proposal on the grounds that Bulgaria was not doing enough to combat corruption.
Bulgaria has been stuck in the so-called euro waiting room ERM II since July 2020. While Croatia, which joined the exchange rate mechanism at the same time, was able to introduce the euro at the beginning of 2023, Bulgaria had to postpone its entry into the eurozone several times because it failed to meet the price stability criterion. The end of next year is now seen as the earliest possible date for the changeover from the Bulgarian lev to the euro.
“We will lose billions”, warned Ludmilla Petkova, Minister of Finance in the caretaker government, recently about her country’s delays in drawing up the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NPAR). At their last parliamentary session before the election on Sept. 26, 2024, MPs were supposed to give the government a mandate to make changes to the NPAR as requested by the EU Commission. However, in order to prevent a reduction in the lifetimes of the national coal-fired power plants, nationalists and populists unceremoniously blocked the lectern and broke up the session. Bulgaria now risks no longer being able to implement planned NPAR projects within the deadline of August 2026 and losing considerable EU funding.
Election fatigue is not only unmistakable among voters but also among the political parties. As a result, the election campaign lacks substantial debates on the country’s problems. Instead, it is characterized by TV images of police operations against attempted election manipulation, which have been a familiar feature of all elections for many years.
For the elections from 2013 to 2021, the investigative-journalistic Anti-Corruption Fund (AKF) published evidence of vote buying and checked ballots for 1,738 of the 11,000 or so polling stations. According to the AKF, the strongest suspicions were directed at the GERB, DPS and BSP parties.
“Deeply concerned” and ready to react: The EU states have reacted with clear criticism to the reports of North Korean soldiers in Russia. Russia’s intensified cooperation with North Korea sends a clear message, according to a statement by the European Council on Thursday evening: “Despite its declared willingness to negotiate, Russia is not interested in a just, comprehensive and lasting peace.” The EU states announced a reaction in coordination with international partners to the developments between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Russia is pursuing several goals with the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, and military cooperation with North Korea: Among other things, Russia wants to show both internally and externally that it is not isolated. “It’s no coincidence that the presence of North Korean soldiers was announced at almost the same time as the BRICS meeting”, says Ulrich Kühn from the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH). In concrete terms, two state leaders who are united “in their hatred of the West” are cooperating.
Kühn and other experts see the development surrounding the deployment of North Korean soldiers – between 3,000 and 11,000 men, depending on the source – as “a clear escalation of the Russian war against Ukraine, because a third state could now actively intervene with soldiers”.
“I assume that we will soon see these soldiers on the front line, either in Russia itself in the Kursk region or in the occupied territories in Ukraine”, says the head of the Arms Control and New Technologies research department at IFSH.
During his visit to Pyongyang in June, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for an “all-encompassing strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea“. The Duma has now ratified it. Following Putin’s signature, it could soon come into force. The treaty (original in Russian here) states, among other things:
“If one side is attacked by force by any other State or States and is thereby placed in a state of war, the other side shall immediately render military and other assistance by any means at its disposal in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and the laws of Russia and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.”
Officially, Russia is not waging a war, but a “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Satellite images, photos and video recordings of North Korean soldiers on Russian territory have sparked international outrage. Following deliveries of various weapons from Iran and North Korea, foreign soldiers – sent by a state and not recruited as private individuals – have a new “quality”, says Ulrich Kühn. “This is extremely worrying for Europe.”
However, the security expert sees little scope for action for the West at the moment. The Ukraine aid workers’ hands are tied because they have ruled out sending their own soldiers to Ukraine.
Russia is once again succeeding in stressing the West and ensuring that it is preoccupied with a potential threat to itself. This is playing into the hands of political forces in Europe who are questioning aid to Ukraine, explains IFSH researcher Kühn. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi had already said in Brussels in mid-October in response to initial rumors about North Korean soldiers: “This is the first step towards a world war.” South Korea is now considering supplying weapons to Ukraine after all, contrary to previous practice.
Oct. 30, 2024
Weekly commission meeting
Topics: Enlargement package 2024, presentation of the Niinistö report. Draft agenda
With the votes of the EPP, ECR and the two far-right political groups of the “Patriots” (PfE) and “Sovereignists” (ESN), the committee of political group leaders has decided that the Venezuelan opposition will receive this year’s Sakharov Prize. The winners are María Corina Machado, the leader of the Democratic Rally, and Eduardo González Urrutia, who won the presidential election but whose victory is not recognized by the regime in Caracas.
The organizations Women Wage Peace and Women of the Sun from Israel and Palestine were supported by S&D and Renew. The Azerbaijani opposition activist Gubad Ibadoghlu received the support of the Greens and the Left. The Freedom of Thought Prize will be awarded on Dec. 18 in Strasbourg.
Recently, majorities for EPP positions were achieved several times because the EPP voted together with the ECR and the two far-right groups. Politicians from S&D, Renew and the Greens accuse EPP leader Manfred Weber of making common cause with the far right. Weber rejects the accusations: the EPP could not help it if the far-right voted with them. mgr
In the negotiations on a declaration on the future of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which 26 of 27 EU agriculture ministers adopted this week, German Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir urged in vain that budget issues be excluded. Instead, the EU agriculture ministers state in the declaration that “dedicated and adequate” funds are needed for the CAP. However, they concede that they do not want to anticipate the next EU Multiannual Financial Framework( MFF).
The Hungarian EU Council Presidency had insisted that the CAP be retained as a separate budget item. According to Özdemir, he had supported this for the sake of compromise. However, the German government believes that the debate on a possible new structure of the (MFF) should be conducted separately from the debate on the CAP after 2027, according to the Federal Ministry of Agriculture (BMEL).
The background to the debate is the reform ideas for the MFF that were recently leaked from the EU Commission. In these, agricultural subsidies would no longer be a separate budget item. Criticism has come from the German Farmers’ Association (DBV), among others. The BMEL has so far refused to comment on the content. However, representatives of the Federal Government have shown themselves to be open to reforms in discussions with Table.Briefings.
However, the conclusions on the CAP were not adopted unanimously for completely different reasons. The point of contention is so-called external convergence, i.e. the gradual harmonization of direct payments between “old” and “newer” EU countries. Romania wants to speed up this process, but was unable to get its way. This dispute between the EU member states is likely to flare up when the EU agricultural budget is distributed among the member states during the MFF negotiations. jd
Following a protracted legal dispute, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) on Thursday finally confirmed the annulment of a fine of €1.06 billion imposed on Intel by the European Commission. The fine was originally imposed by the Commission in May 2009. It accused the US chip manufacturer of granting anti-competitive rebates and thus abusing its dominant position in the x86 processor market. The beneficiaries of the rebates were major customers such as Dell and HP or the electronics retailer Media Markt Saturn, while the victims were competitors such as AMD.
The case dragged on for over 15 years and led to several judgments. Initially, the court rejected Intel’s appeal against the fine in 2014. In 2017, however, the ECJ overturned this ruling and referred the case back for reconsideration. In January 2022, the Court annulled the Commission’s decision in part and lifted the fine in full.
The court criticized the Commission’s economic analysis and ruled that the evidence submitted was not sufficient to prove the alleged anti-competitive effects of the discounts. In particular, the Commission had applied the as-efficient competitor test incorrectly, which led to considerable doubts as to the validity of the allegations.
The Commission in turn appealed against this ruling, but it has now been definitively rejected by the ECJ. The ruling is a setback for the EU competition authority and has potentially far-reaching implications for future antitrust proceedings, particularly in the assessment of discount practices. The ruling leaves open whether Intel actually abused its market power. vis
E-commerce, artificial intelligence and cloud services will be among the biggest growth drivers of the global economy in the future. According to a recent study by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) think tank, these industries, together with other key technologies, could generate up to $48 trillion in sales and $6 trillion in profits by 2040.
The study introduces the term “competitive arenas” to describe industries that are characterized by above-average growth and high dynamics. These arenas differ from traditional sectors in their ability to change rapidly and capture disproportionately high market shares. “Today’s arenas of competition are drivers of innovation and are expected to form new centers of growth in the global economy”, says Chris Bradley of MGI.
The most important of the 18 arenas are:
In addition to the three leading arenas, electric vehicles, semiconductors and digital advertising are also among the key future fields. According to the authors of the McKinsey study, the 18 competitive arenas could account for around 16% of global GDP and more than a third of global economic growth by 2040. They already have a strong influence on innovation and the global market structure and will play an even more central role in the global economy in the coming years.
The new EU Commission has placed the topics of increasing competitiveness and innovation at the top of its political agenda. vis
The Family Business Foundation is calling for faster results in reducing bureaucracy in the EU. “Europe must eliminate its structural weaknesses”, says the Brussels Declaration, which was drawn up by the Foundation’s Board of Trustees following a meeting in Brussels. These include “obstacles in the internal market” and “chronic over-regulation”. Europe thrives on trust. And this includes the claim that the EU remains an economic powerhouse and delivers on its economic promises.
“This trust is at stake”, says the statement, which is available to Table.Briefings. Despite many political assurances, the reduction in bureaucracy is not making any progress. “Family businesses are waiting in vain for tangible relief.” The announced reduction in reporting obligations is coming to nothing. This is another reason why the EU economy is increasingly falling behind. EU policy must take effective countermeasures: “This does not require more money, but noticeably less burden: Good location conditions are crucial”, writes the organization. mgr
Europe’s auditors have given almost all EU agencies a positive report card for their financial management last year. Only four of the 43 EU agencies examined, such as the European Labor Authority (ELA), received a warning for their expenditure, according to a new report by the Luxembourg-based EU Court of Auditors. Overall, however, the handling of revenue and expenditure by all agencies audited in 2023 was sound.
The agencies are based in various EU countries and employ more than 16,000 people, according to the report. The agencies’ total budget in 2023 was over €4 billion. Most agencies are funded almost entirely from the EU budget.
“The financial management of the EU agencies is generally good, but we continue to find errors in the awarding of public contracts”, criticized François-Roger Cazala from the Court of Auditors. The Court of Auditors found irregularities in the award procedures of three of the four agencies that received warnings.
According to the information provided, these are the Labor Authority ELA based in Slovakia and the Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) based in Greece. The Court of Auditors has also issued a warning to eu-LISA, the agency responsible for large-scale IT systems, which is based in Estonia. The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) based in Hungary, on the other hand, is criticized for its estimated error rate in the grants it manages. dpa

It wasn’t so long ago that Hadja Lahbib and Ursula von der Leyen were arguing about the right course. Lahbib, the Belgian Foreign Minister, stood up for the Palestinians in Gaza and lashed out against Israel. In contrast, Commission President von der Leyen always emphasized Israel’s right to self-defense. The dispute overshadowed the Belgian EU Presidency, which ended in June.
A quarter of a year later, Lahbib is to join von der Leyen’s new team and become Commissioner for Preparedness and Crisis Management and Gender Equality. This comes as a surprise even to those familiar with Belgian politics. Until recently, Didier Reynders, who is still Commissioner for Justice, was considered the favorite – he has plenty of experience. Lahbib, on the other hand, is considered inexperienced and sometimes unpredictable.
The fact that she was nominated at the last minute is also down to von der Leyen herself: she had called for”more women” for her second term of office. Lahbib is a woman, she sees herself as a feminist. However, the final decision lay with the leader of the Walloon Liberals, Georges-Louis Bouchez. He had opted for renewal, Bouchez explained his surprising choice.
The response was ambivalent – because opinions are divided on Lahbib. The Flemish press commented on the nomination with malice. The 54-year-old is a “lightweight” and has so little stature that “the EU professionals in Brussels will put her on a cracker and eat her as an amuse-gueule”, wrote the newspaper “Het Nieuwsblad”. “Clumsy and invisible“, was the verdict of “De Morgen”.
The verdict is completely different in Wallonia, where Lahbib was born in 1970 as the daughter of Algerian immigrants. There, she is described as passionate and committed and celebrated as a symbol of successful integration. Lahbib is an “icon of multicultural society”, writes “Le Soir”. However, her political record so far has been comparatively meager.
Bouchez praises his candidate for her “brilliant work” during the Belgian Council Presidency. The strong man of the Belgian Liberals also emphasizes her experience as a reporter in crisis areas. She has worked as a journalist for the francophone RTBF since 1997. As a correspondent, she has reported from the Middle East, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Chad.
However, her political career did not begin until 2022, when Bouchez appointed her as the successor to Foreign Minister Sophie Wilmès, who had resigned from office for personal reasons. Lahbib immediately came under fire – because a year earlier, she had visited Crimea at Russia’s invitation while still a journalist. Ukraine condemned the “illegal” trip.
Hadja Lahbib made up for the faux pas with a visit to Kyiv. Since then, she has been considered a loyal friend of Ukraine. But then came the next scandal. This time it was about a conference of mayors in Brussels, which was also attended by Iranians. Who had issued the visas? Lahbib made excuses by saying that the Brussels region was responsible for this, not her foreign ministry.
However, she was then able to celebrate a diplomatic success in the form of a prisoner exchange with Iran – the Belgian aid worker Olivier Vandecasteele was released. Since then, the dust has settled around the minister, who was also responsible for trade and culture in addition to foreign policy. At the hearing in the European Parliament, however, she must be prepared for unpleasant questions. Eric Bonse