Table.Briefing: Europe (English)

All Commissioners confirmed + Answers to Trump’s tariffs + EUDR amendments

Dear reader,

Today is a pivotal day for the European Union as the European Parliament confirmed all 26 Commissioners for the new European Commission. This isn’t just a procedural step – it’s a renewed commitment to unity and shared purpose within the EU. Till Hoppe and Markus Grabitz provide valuable insights and details in their Analysis.

Meanwhile, the EU faces external pressures from lingering tariffs threatened by Donald Trump. The big question: How will the EU respond to protect its economic interests? Options include launching a challenge at the World Trade Organization or enacting retaliatory tariffs.

Read more about these developments in today’s issue, where we explore the EU’s strategies to respond to Trump’s tariffs. Also, the EU has won an award at COP29 – if one can call it that. Lukas Knigge takes a closer look at the inglorious prize and its meaning.

Have a wonderful day!

Your
Julia Mertens

Feature

New Commission: Parliament nominates all 26 Commissioners

On Wednesday evening, the coordinators nominated the six Executive Vice-Presidents of the second Von der Leyen Commission and Health Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi by a two-thirds majority. The agreement almost fell apart over the evaluation of Teresa Ribera. The EPP wanted to state in the evaluation letter that the Executive Vice President must resign if she is charged or convicted by the judiciary in Spain. The Spanish Environment Minister, who remains in office until today, is accused of having violated her official duties during the flood disaster in Valencia. Initially, S&D was not willing to agree and, in return, blocked the nomination of the Italian Raffaele Fitto from the conservative ECR party family, as well as Henna Virkkunen from the Christian Democratic EPP party family.

There have been minor changes to the Health Commissioner’s portfolio. Várhelyi is no longer responsible for sexual-reproductive health and mental health. However, these changes mean that no new round of hearings is due. This means that all 26 commissioners have been nominated by Parliament and the hearings have been concluded. On Wednesday, the plenary session in Strasbourg will vote on the entire new Commission. It needs an absolute majority of votes there.

S&D does not want to cooperate with ECR Group

The S&D coordinators were not ready to raise their hands for Raffaele Fitto, the Meloni confidant and candidate from Italy for the post of executive Vice-President, until 5 pm. In turn, the EPP coordinators threatened to block Teresa Ribera, who is a confidante of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. It took a two-page declaration from the EPP, S&D and Renew group leaders to achieve a breakthrough.

In the paper, which was obtained by Table.Briefings, the three pro-European political groups reaffirm their intention to work together during the parliamentary term and drive forward reforms in nine policy areas. The declaration on migration, the economy, the welfare state, environmental protection, the rule of law, geopolitics, the multiannual financial framework and EU reforms is quite general. It cannot be compared with a coalition agreement of a member state. The ECR and the Greens are not part of the agreement. According to reports, EPP group leader Weber was not prepared to include the Greens in the talks.

One point of contention in the Von der Leyen coalition has not yet been resolved: The S&D Group does not want to cooperate with the ECR Group, but wants to treat the group like the far-right factions of the “Patriots for Europe” around the delegation of the French Rassemblement National and the “European Sovereignists” (ESN) around the German AfD.

However, EPP group leader Manfred Weber opposed this. He wants to keep open the possibility of working with changing majorities as before. “The Christian Democrats must understand that narrow majorities with the right-wing populists and fascists in this House are not the right way forward,” said René Repasi, chairman of the SPD delegation.

S&D coordinators reluctantly followed the boss

Weber had previously agreed on the deal in principle with his S&D colleague Iratxe García Pérez and Renew boss Valérie Hayer: The seven outstanding Commission staff positions were to be agreed by the coordinators, with only minor changes to the portfolio of the Commissioner-designate for Health. The EPP Group supported the agreement with a large majority, with only the Spanish MEPs from the Partido Popular expressing criticism.

The deal was also acceptable to the Liberals. However, S&D leader Iratxe García Pérez was initially unable to get her parliamentary group to unite behind her. The Social Democrats debated for more than three hours and, according to a participant, very controversially. The German SPD delegates rejected the agreement as negotiated, as did the French Socialists. Other delegations had also expressed criticism, according to the parliamentary group.

Ribera still under pressure

Ribera faced a hearing in the Spanish parliament on Wednesday. It was about her possible co-responsibility for the catastrophic consequences of the floods in Valencia. The EPP Group subsequently increased the pressure once again. The candidate for the post of Executive Vice-President had not answered questions about her resignation – if she is still officially accused of serious failings in this context: “The EPP Group emphasizes that she should prepare for her resignation if the Spanish judiciary officially accuses her.”

  • EU Parliament
  • European Commission
  • EVP
  • Manfred Weber
  • Ursula von der Leyen
Translation missing.

US tariffs: How the EU can react with China in mind

Donald Trump’s new term as US President starts in two months. According to media reports, trade hardliner Robert Lighthizer will also play an important role in the new Trump cabinet. Moreover, Trump’s team has appointed Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce in charge of the trade dossier. During the election campaign, Lutnick had spoken out in favor of funding tax relief by raising tariffs, among other things.

The EU must be prepared for Trump to make good on his threats, says Elvire Fabry, trade expert at the Jacques Delors Institute. “We don’t know how he will do it, but he will do it quickly,” she told Table.Briefings. During the election campaign, Trump had promised tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all imports and a tariff of 60 percent on Chinese imports.

Europe would be severely affected

Tariffs of up to 20 percent would severely affect EU exports to the US, especially German exports: Ten percent of German goods exports go to the US, mainly in the pharmaceutical, automotive and machinery sectors. The ifo Institute estimates that German exports to the USA would decline by 15 percent.

German exports to China could also suffer, as China would export less to the USA. This is because many German products, such as machinery, are used in China to manufacture Chinese export products. If the country exports less, the demand for German machinery is correspondingly lower. There is also the risk that Chinese companies will redirect products that they can no longer sell on the US market to Europe, displacing local producers in the process.

The EU has a range of instruments at its disposal to defend itself against these tariffs: Its own tariffs against the US, trade defense instruments, the anti-coercion instrument and temporary, WTO-compliant safeguard measures.

Tariffs on US products: fast, but not WTO-compliant

The fastest way for the EU to react is to adjust its own tariffs. To do this, the Commission would have to present a proposal to change the customs tariffs for US imports, which would then have to be confirmed by a qualified majority in the EU Council. The Directorate-General for Trade has prepared a so-called “smart list” with which it can target sectors that are important to the Trump administration. The tariff increase can be calibrated in such a way that it corresponds to the overall damage of Trump’s tariffs for the EU.

However, David Kleimann, trade law expert at the think tank ODI Europe, warns that this reaction by the EU would violate WTO regulations. He argues that tariffs specifically targeting the USA ignore the WTO’s “Most-Favored-Nation” principle.

Protection against coercive economic measures

But there are other means: Since the last Trump administration, the EU has acquired a range of trade protection instruments that it could use to put pressure on the US. These include:

  • the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) and
  • the International Procurement Instrument (IPI).

The EU Commission could initiate proceedings under these instruments, which would then put US companies at a disadvantage in EU procurement markets. However, these proceedings would not be a direct response to the tariffs.

The EU also has the anti-coercion instrument at its disposal. It would only be used against Trump’s tariffs if the US were to use them as a threat to force the EU or individual member states to make political concessions – for example, preferential treatment of US tech companies in the EU.

Should tariffs against China suddenly divert a large quantity of Chinese products to the European market, the EU could impose temporary tariffs or import quotas for the affected products. This is set out in the “WTO Agreement on Safeguards.” The EU had used this instrument in the first Trump legislature in response to the US tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Cohesion in the EU is crucial

“The EU has the tools to spite the United States,” says Elvire Fabry. However, she is worried that Trump could try and divide Europe. For example, he could target economic sectors that are only important for certain member states. “The most important thing is that the EU stands united against Trump,” she said, adding that there is currently less cohesion between Germany and France than during the last Trump administration.

A strong European position is also hampered by the fact that Chinese interests are also involved. In the past, individual countries have repeatedly backed out when the EU should have stood united against Beijing. This was most recently the case when the EU Commission decided to impose tariffs on Chinese EVs, and the member states appeared as a divided community.

MEP Daniel Caspary (CDU) takes a more optimistic view of the situation. “Whenever we are in difficult times, the EU moves closer together,” he told Table.Briefings. Even if the US tariffs would “massively damage” the EU, Europe would have to take a very close look at whether it should also impose tariffs against the US. This makes him sound as cautious as Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who recently warned at an event organized by the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin against reacting to Trump with isolationism.

‘We must not be afraid to use our instruments

French Renew MEP Marie-Pierre Vedrenne sounds a different note. She believes that Europe should “prepare for the worst.” She told Table.Briefings that the EU must prepare itself mentally for the confrontation and introduce tariffs as soon as Trump makes good on his threats. “We must not be afraid to use our instruments. If we never use them, they will lose their deterrent effect.”

Coordinating a response between the EU member states to Trump’s possible tariffs is still in its infancy. EU diplomats have yet to agree on a uniform approach. The first steps towards a common approach could be taken in today’s meeting of the Council of Trade Ministers in Brussels. However, no concrete progress is currently expected.

  • China
  • Donald Trump
  • EU
  • European policy
  • Geopolitics
  • Trade
  • Trade policy
  • Trump 2024
  • USA
  • WTO
  • Zölle
Translation missing.

Events

Nov. 22, 2024; 3-4 p.m., online
ECFR, Seminar Samba Steps: Understanding Brazil’s Global Role and What It Means for Europe
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) examines how Brazil’s unique approach to foreign policy-including its strategic balance between the US and China, its support for multipolarity, and its advocacy for strategic autonomy-impacts its relationship with the EU. INFO & REGISTRATION

Nov. 26, 2024; 3-4:30 p.m., online
DE, Panel Discussion Securing cyberspace: the imperative for global regulatory alignment
Digital Europe (DE) discusses the urgent need for global regulatory alignment in cyberspace. INFO & REGISTRATION

News

EUDR: Council opposes Parliament’s amendments

The Council does not want to support the European Parliament’s call to amend the content of the EU regulation on deforestation-free supply chains (EUDR). With a large majority, including the German Federal Government, the Permanent Representatives of the member states reaffirmed their original negotiating position on Wednesday to only postpone the implementation deadline of the EUDR by one year. The Council and Parliament must now reach an agreement in trilogue negotiations, which are due to start this Thursday morning. If no agreement is reached, the next meeting could be scheduled for Dec. 3.

The timetable is very tight: If the law is not passed by then, the rules will apply from Dec. 30 as originally planned. Nevertheless, rapporteur Christine Schneider (EPP) is determined to stick to the amendments. Her task is to “stand up for the majority position of the European Parliament”. Adjustments are needed to avoid unnecessary bureaucracy, she said. Last week, a majority from the EPP, the right-wing parties and some liberals voted in favor of Schneider’s proposal to introduce an additional category for producer countries “without deforestation risk”, which would be subject to significantly less stringent requirements.

Major reservations in the Council about ‘zero risk’ category

Numerous member states have major reservations about this, as can be heard from Council circles. They fear, for example, that such a regulation would not be WTO-compliant, that loopholes would be created that would impair the effectiveness of the regulation, or that there is not enough time to prepare the innovation in a legally secure manner. According to reports, a possible compromise could be to stipulate that the introduction of a “zero risk” category will be examined as part of the review of the directive scheduled for 2028.

CDU politician Schneider and the federal government – now without the FDP – are blaming each other. Schneider spoke of a “blockade attitude without constructive contributions” from the SPD and the Greens. Federal Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir, for his part, called on the EU Parliament to clear the way for the postponement of the EUDR in the trialogue. He had sharply criticized the EPP for its amendments at the beginning of the week. S&D MEP Delara Burkhardt, who is leading the negotiations for her group, also called on the EPP to “stop playing political games” and drop the amendments. jd

  • Entwaldung

Municipal utilities defend themselves against consolidation

The municipal utilities association VKU is against calls for larger economic players in Europe, as Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi had advocated in their reports. This was also discussed with Germany’s deputy ambassador to the EU, Helen Winter, said the re-elected VKU CEO Ingbert Liebing at a press conference in Brussels on Wednesday.

The municipal utilities feared that pressure could be exerted from the European level to consolidate structures in the municipal sector, particularly in the energy, water, telecommunications and recycling sectors. According to the VKU, there have already been attempts at federal level to transfer responsibilities to larger companies, for example for redispatch and electricity metering.

Municipalities do not want to lead the way in green procurement

The municipal utilities are also against a European climate target of 90 percent for 2040, as proposed by the Commission. Germany would then probably have to achieve an even higher reduction. Instead, the EU should focus on implementing the 2030 climate target and not set the 2040 target until 2028/29, Liebing demanded. Another option would be a revision clause if the target is to be set as early as next year.

The municipal companies also do not want to support the initiatives for green lead markets. Draghi, among others, had suggested that the public sector should lead the way in the procurement of climate-friendly goods. “If conditions are only imposed on public companies, this will hinder them in competition with private companies,” said Liebing. For example, the VKU is against an obligation to only procure products with a minimum proportion of recycled materials. ber

  • Öffentliche Beschaffung

EU and Singapore cooperate on AI safety

The EU Commission and Singapore’s Ministry for Digital Development have agreed on a cooperation between the EU AI Office and the Singapore AI Safety Institute. The aim is to promote safe, trustworthy and human-centered AI. Joint tests, tools, standardization and research on the safety of AI models are planned. The partners will also exchange information on technological trends and developments.

The agreement is part of the EU-Singapore Digital Partnership concluded in 2023. Margrethe Vestager emphasized the importance of common standards for innovation and security. “With security in focus, innovation can move forward with minimal risk and deepen the understanding of this fascinating but challenging technology,” said the outgoing Executive Vice-President. vis

  • Künstliche Intelligenz-Verordnung

Cyber Resilience Act: Deadlines for implementation are now running

On Wednesday, the Cyber Resilience Act (CRA) was officially published in the Official Journal of the European Union. This means that the deadlines for the implementation of IT security regulations are now running. The CRA is the first European regulation that defines a minimum level of cyber security for all networked products that come onto the market in the EU.

The aim of the Cyber Resilience Act is to protect consumers and companies that buy or use products or software with a digital component. The Act provides for mandatory cyber security requirements for manufacturers and retailers of such products. The protection extends over the entire product life cycle. The new regulation comes into force 20 days after publication. It will be implemented in various stages until all new products must meet the requirements by 2027.

Cyber Resilience Act could set standards

Norbert Pohlmann, Board Member for IT Security at eco Association of the Internet Industry, calls the Cyber Resilience Act an important milestone for strengthening cyber security in Europe. It has the potential to position Europe as a pioneer in cyber security and to set global standards for networked devices in the long term. It is to be welcomed that the CRA clearly assigns responsibilities. “Manufacturers will be held more accountable for meeting cybersecurity requirements not only during development, but throughout the entire life cycle of their products.” This approach is a decisive step towards sustainably strengthening resilience and trust in digital products.

The solution found for open-source technologies also represents a compromise that brings together security requirements and the promotion of innovation. “Nevertheless, we must continue to monitor the implementation critically and constructively to ensure that open source projects are not impaired by excessive requirements,” said Pohlmann. vis

  • Consumer protection
  • CRA
  • Cybersicherheit
  • Digital policy

Trump’s former Attorney General to become NATO ambassador

US President-elect Donald Trump wants to appoint Matthew Whittaker as the US ambassador to NATO – a lawyer who was Attorney General for a few months during Trump’s first presidency. Trump announced that Whitaker will strengthen relations with NATO partners and remain steadfast in the face of threats to peace and stability. “I have every confidence in Matt’s ability to represent the United States with strength, integrity and unwavering dedication.”

Whitaker stepped in as interim Attorney General in November 2018 after Trump forced his Then-Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, to resign. The background was an investigation into possible collusion between Russia and Trump’s campaign camp before the 2016 presidential election.

Filling the post at NATO is important. During the election campaign, Trump repeatedly raised doubts as to whether the USA would fully stand by its commitment to NATO under his leadership. He criticized some of the European allies for failing to meet the alliance’s defense spending targets. However, Trump did not repeat earlier threats of withdrawal. dpa

  • Donald Trump
Translation missing.

Heads

Howard Lutnick – Future US Secretary of Commerce is a fan of tariffs

Howard Lutnick during his speech at Madison Square Garden: The future US Secretary of Commerce is a longtime friend and ideological ally of Donald Trump.

New York, Madison Square Garden, a few days before the election. The greats of the MAGA universe have gathered on the stage of the world’s most famous arena to give Donald Trump’s campaign the final push. The Republican’s sons are speaking, vice presidential candidate JD Vance, billionaire Elon Musk. But shortly before Trump himself gives his speech, a man with a beard streaked with gray and a very high forehead steps up to the podium: Howard Lutnick, CEO of investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald.

Lutnick is not a star. Very few of the 20,000 or so spectators are likely to recognize his name. But he is important in Trump’s orbit – as evidenced not only by his prominent speaking slot. As one of the co-chairs of the Republican campaign’s transition team, he has been preparing the new administration’s most important personnel decisions for months.

An enormous amount of power

Now he has secured an important position for himself: On Tuesday, the former and future president nominated the 63-year-old as the next Secretary of Commerce and announced that Lutnick would simultaneously assume “direct responsibility” for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

The Wall Street man is therefore likely to become one of the central figures for one of the most important concerns of the next Trump administration: the imposition of tariffs with the aim of enforcing the president’s will.

It is not the role that Lutnick was aiming for. In recent weeks, he has hardly faltered in his bid for the post of Treasury Secretary, securing the support of influential Trump whisperers such as Elon Musk. But even if the banker missed out on the more prestigious job in the Treasury Department, located right next to the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue, his new role is likely to come with an enormous amount of power.

‘Impose tariffs on China and make $400 billion’

The Department of Commerce (DoC) oversees a whole range of government agencies and institutions that are crucial to US economic policy. In his role as the United States Trade Representative (USTR), Lutnick will also steer the trade policy of the world’s largest economy. The Trump team has not announced whether he will formally take on the role. The jobs of Secretary of Commerce and Trade Representative are usually separate.

In Howard Lutnick, Trump is appointing a long-time friend to his cabinet – and an ideological ally. The investment banker supports the president-elect’s vision of using tariffs to bring industrial jobs back to the USA. He also sees the import surcharges in a positive light. “Don’t tax our people. Make money instead,” Lutnick recently said in a podcast. “Impose tariffs on China and make $400 billion.”

These statements coincide with Trump’s plan to impose a special 60 percent levy on all imports from the People’s Republic. It would be a massive escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, which Trump started during his first term in office and the effects of which are still being felt today. Numerous tariffs imposed by the Republican at the time remained in force during the Biden years.

Bleak prospects for Europe, especially for Germany

China is likely to remain the focus of Trump’s trade policy. However, Europe could also face difficult years with Lutnick in office. After all, the president-elect announced during the election campaign that he would impose a 10 or 20 percent tariff on all imports. This would cost the European Union dearly. According to analysts, exports from the eurozone to the USA could slump by around a third if Trump were to impose a tariff of ten percent. Most recently, the volume of exports to the United States amounted to around €460 billion per year. And Germany in particular could be severely affected by such a slump.

This is because the United States is the most important export market for German companies. In 2023, they sent goods worth around €168 billion across the Atlantic. A slump here could send the German economy into recession, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel recently warned in Die Zeit. But this could be just the beginning.

Even during his first term in office, Trump had one German sector in particular in his sights: the automotive industry. Under the then Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, the USTR prepared a report that would have enabled the Trump administration to impose punitive tariffs of 25 percent on imports of German cars and car parts. In the end, Trump was dissuaded from these plans and the report ended up in the archives. But under Lutnick, it could end up back on the agenda.

  • China
  • Duties
  • Trade policy

Dessert

COP29: The EU is ‘Fossil of the Day’

The “Fossil of the Day” prize is awarded every day at COP – to those countries that do too little for climate action and still use fossil fuels.

The EU received an inglorious prize at COP29. It is the Fossil of the Day. The “Fossil of the Day” award is traditionally presented on each COP day by the civil society organizations of the Climate Action Network (CAN) to the biggest polluters, users of fossil fuels and blockers of ambitious climate policy.

After the G7, Italy and Russia, the EU was “crowned” on Wednesday. This is because it still has not presented a figure on how much it intends to provide for international climate financing in the future – the most important topic to be negotiated at COP29.

How is climate financing made up? Hoekstra remains silent

EU Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra made it clear on Wednesday that he was not only concerned with the number, but also with what would ultimately flow into the total: only public funds? Private contributions as well? Loans or just grants? The EU negotiators remain silent on all of this and are not revealing their position publicly. For CAN, this is the reason to award the EU the “Fossil of the Day”, accompanied by the Jurassic Park anthem.

However, the price for the EU is also somewhat cynical. After all, the EU is the largest contributor to climate financing to date – the only one paying its fair share in terms of emissions. With the Green Deal, the EU has the most ambitious climate policy of all industrialized nations. Other industrialized nations, above all the USA, emit significantly more but pay less and present climate targets that are far less ambitious. In Baku, they have not yet been crowned “Fossil of the Day”, although this award would be more than deserved. Lukas Knigge

Europe.Table Editorial Team

EUROPE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Licenses:
    Dear reader,

    Today is a pivotal day for the European Union as the European Parliament confirmed all 26 Commissioners for the new European Commission. This isn’t just a procedural step – it’s a renewed commitment to unity and shared purpose within the EU. Till Hoppe and Markus Grabitz provide valuable insights and details in their Analysis.

    Meanwhile, the EU faces external pressures from lingering tariffs threatened by Donald Trump. The big question: How will the EU respond to protect its economic interests? Options include launching a challenge at the World Trade Organization or enacting retaliatory tariffs.

    Read more about these developments in today’s issue, where we explore the EU’s strategies to respond to Trump’s tariffs. Also, the EU has won an award at COP29 – if one can call it that. Lukas Knigge takes a closer look at the inglorious prize and its meaning.

    Have a wonderful day!

    Your
    Julia Mertens

    Feature

    New Commission: Parliament nominates all 26 Commissioners

    On Wednesday evening, the coordinators nominated the six Executive Vice-Presidents of the second Von der Leyen Commission and Health Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi by a two-thirds majority. The agreement almost fell apart over the evaluation of Teresa Ribera. The EPP wanted to state in the evaluation letter that the Executive Vice President must resign if she is charged or convicted by the judiciary in Spain. The Spanish Environment Minister, who remains in office until today, is accused of having violated her official duties during the flood disaster in Valencia. Initially, S&D was not willing to agree and, in return, blocked the nomination of the Italian Raffaele Fitto from the conservative ECR party family, as well as Henna Virkkunen from the Christian Democratic EPP party family.

    There have been minor changes to the Health Commissioner’s portfolio. Várhelyi is no longer responsible for sexual-reproductive health and mental health. However, these changes mean that no new round of hearings is due. This means that all 26 commissioners have been nominated by Parliament and the hearings have been concluded. On Wednesday, the plenary session in Strasbourg will vote on the entire new Commission. It needs an absolute majority of votes there.

    S&D does not want to cooperate with ECR Group

    The S&D coordinators were not ready to raise their hands for Raffaele Fitto, the Meloni confidant and candidate from Italy for the post of executive Vice-President, until 5 pm. In turn, the EPP coordinators threatened to block Teresa Ribera, who is a confidante of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. It took a two-page declaration from the EPP, S&D and Renew group leaders to achieve a breakthrough.

    In the paper, which was obtained by Table.Briefings, the three pro-European political groups reaffirm their intention to work together during the parliamentary term and drive forward reforms in nine policy areas. The declaration on migration, the economy, the welfare state, environmental protection, the rule of law, geopolitics, the multiannual financial framework and EU reforms is quite general. It cannot be compared with a coalition agreement of a member state. The ECR and the Greens are not part of the agreement. According to reports, EPP group leader Weber was not prepared to include the Greens in the talks.

    One point of contention in the Von der Leyen coalition has not yet been resolved: The S&D Group does not want to cooperate with the ECR Group, but wants to treat the group like the far-right factions of the “Patriots for Europe” around the delegation of the French Rassemblement National and the “European Sovereignists” (ESN) around the German AfD.

    However, EPP group leader Manfred Weber opposed this. He wants to keep open the possibility of working with changing majorities as before. “The Christian Democrats must understand that narrow majorities with the right-wing populists and fascists in this House are not the right way forward,” said René Repasi, chairman of the SPD delegation.

    S&D coordinators reluctantly followed the boss

    Weber had previously agreed on the deal in principle with his S&D colleague Iratxe García Pérez and Renew boss Valérie Hayer: The seven outstanding Commission staff positions were to be agreed by the coordinators, with only minor changes to the portfolio of the Commissioner-designate for Health. The EPP Group supported the agreement with a large majority, with only the Spanish MEPs from the Partido Popular expressing criticism.

    The deal was also acceptable to the Liberals. However, S&D leader Iratxe García Pérez was initially unable to get her parliamentary group to unite behind her. The Social Democrats debated for more than three hours and, according to a participant, very controversially. The German SPD delegates rejected the agreement as negotiated, as did the French Socialists. Other delegations had also expressed criticism, according to the parliamentary group.

    Ribera still under pressure

    Ribera faced a hearing in the Spanish parliament on Wednesday. It was about her possible co-responsibility for the catastrophic consequences of the floods in Valencia. The EPP Group subsequently increased the pressure once again. The candidate for the post of Executive Vice-President had not answered questions about her resignation – if she is still officially accused of serious failings in this context: “The EPP Group emphasizes that she should prepare for her resignation if the Spanish judiciary officially accuses her.”

    • EU Parliament
    • European Commission
    • EVP
    • Manfred Weber
    • Ursula von der Leyen
    Translation missing.

    US tariffs: How the EU can react with China in mind

    Donald Trump’s new term as US President starts in two months. According to media reports, trade hardliner Robert Lighthizer will also play an important role in the new Trump cabinet. Moreover, Trump’s team has appointed Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce in charge of the trade dossier. During the election campaign, Lutnick had spoken out in favor of funding tax relief by raising tariffs, among other things.

    The EU must be prepared for Trump to make good on his threats, says Elvire Fabry, trade expert at the Jacques Delors Institute. “We don’t know how he will do it, but he will do it quickly,” she told Table.Briefings. During the election campaign, Trump had promised tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all imports and a tariff of 60 percent on Chinese imports.

    Europe would be severely affected

    Tariffs of up to 20 percent would severely affect EU exports to the US, especially German exports: Ten percent of German goods exports go to the US, mainly in the pharmaceutical, automotive and machinery sectors. The ifo Institute estimates that German exports to the USA would decline by 15 percent.

    German exports to China could also suffer, as China would export less to the USA. This is because many German products, such as machinery, are used in China to manufacture Chinese export products. If the country exports less, the demand for German machinery is correspondingly lower. There is also the risk that Chinese companies will redirect products that they can no longer sell on the US market to Europe, displacing local producers in the process.

    The EU has a range of instruments at its disposal to defend itself against these tariffs: Its own tariffs against the US, trade defense instruments, the anti-coercion instrument and temporary, WTO-compliant safeguard measures.

    Tariffs on US products: fast, but not WTO-compliant

    The fastest way for the EU to react is to adjust its own tariffs. To do this, the Commission would have to present a proposal to change the customs tariffs for US imports, which would then have to be confirmed by a qualified majority in the EU Council. The Directorate-General for Trade has prepared a so-called “smart list” with which it can target sectors that are important to the Trump administration. The tariff increase can be calibrated in such a way that it corresponds to the overall damage of Trump’s tariffs for the EU.

    However, David Kleimann, trade law expert at the think tank ODI Europe, warns that this reaction by the EU would violate WTO regulations. He argues that tariffs specifically targeting the USA ignore the WTO’s “Most-Favored-Nation” principle.

    Protection against coercive economic measures

    But there are other means: Since the last Trump administration, the EU has acquired a range of trade protection instruments that it could use to put pressure on the US. These include:

    • the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) and
    • the International Procurement Instrument (IPI).

    The EU Commission could initiate proceedings under these instruments, which would then put US companies at a disadvantage in EU procurement markets. However, these proceedings would not be a direct response to the tariffs.

    The EU also has the anti-coercion instrument at its disposal. It would only be used against Trump’s tariffs if the US were to use them as a threat to force the EU or individual member states to make political concessions – for example, preferential treatment of US tech companies in the EU.

    Should tariffs against China suddenly divert a large quantity of Chinese products to the European market, the EU could impose temporary tariffs or import quotas for the affected products. This is set out in the “WTO Agreement on Safeguards.” The EU had used this instrument in the first Trump legislature in response to the US tariffs on steel and aluminum.

    Cohesion in the EU is crucial

    “The EU has the tools to spite the United States,” says Elvire Fabry. However, she is worried that Trump could try and divide Europe. For example, he could target economic sectors that are only important for certain member states. “The most important thing is that the EU stands united against Trump,” she said, adding that there is currently less cohesion between Germany and France than during the last Trump administration.

    A strong European position is also hampered by the fact that Chinese interests are also involved. In the past, individual countries have repeatedly backed out when the EU should have stood united against Beijing. This was most recently the case when the EU Commission decided to impose tariffs on Chinese EVs, and the member states appeared as a divided community.

    MEP Daniel Caspary (CDU) takes a more optimistic view of the situation. “Whenever we are in difficult times, the EU moves closer together,” he told Table.Briefings. Even if the US tariffs would “massively damage” the EU, Europe would have to take a very close look at whether it should also impose tariffs against the US. This makes him sound as cautious as Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who recently warned at an event organized by the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin against reacting to Trump with isolationism.

    ‘We must not be afraid to use our instruments

    French Renew MEP Marie-Pierre Vedrenne sounds a different note. She believes that Europe should “prepare for the worst.” She told Table.Briefings that the EU must prepare itself mentally for the confrontation and introduce tariffs as soon as Trump makes good on his threats. “We must not be afraid to use our instruments. If we never use them, they will lose their deterrent effect.”

    Coordinating a response between the EU member states to Trump’s possible tariffs is still in its infancy. EU diplomats have yet to agree on a uniform approach. The first steps towards a common approach could be taken in today’s meeting of the Council of Trade Ministers in Brussels. However, no concrete progress is currently expected.

    • China
    • Donald Trump
    • EU
    • European policy
    • Geopolitics
    • Trade
    • Trade policy
    • Trump 2024
    • USA
    • WTO
    • Zölle
    Translation missing.

    Events

    Nov. 22, 2024; 3-4 p.m., online
    ECFR, Seminar Samba Steps: Understanding Brazil’s Global Role and What It Means for Europe
    The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) examines how Brazil’s unique approach to foreign policy-including its strategic balance between the US and China, its support for multipolarity, and its advocacy for strategic autonomy-impacts its relationship with the EU. INFO & REGISTRATION

    Nov. 26, 2024; 3-4:30 p.m., online
    DE, Panel Discussion Securing cyberspace: the imperative for global regulatory alignment
    Digital Europe (DE) discusses the urgent need for global regulatory alignment in cyberspace. INFO & REGISTRATION

    News

    EUDR: Council opposes Parliament’s amendments

    The Council does not want to support the European Parliament’s call to amend the content of the EU regulation on deforestation-free supply chains (EUDR). With a large majority, including the German Federal Government, the Permanent Representatives of the member states reaffirmed their original negotiating position on Wednesday to only postpone the implementation deadline of the EUDR by one year. The Council and Parliament must now reach an agreement in trilogue negotiations, which are due to start this Thursday morning. If no agreement is reached, the next meeting could be scheduled for Dec. 3.

    The timetable is very tight: If the law is not passed by then, the rules will apply from Dec. 30 as originally planned. Nevertheless, rapporteur Christine Schneider (EPP) is determined to stick to the amendments. Her task is to “stand up for the majority position of the European Parliament”. Adjustments are needed to avoid unnecessary bureaucracy, she said. Last week, a majority from the EPP, the right-wing parties and some liberals voted in favor of Schneider’s proposal to introduce an additional category for producer countries “without deforestation risk”, which would be subject to significantly less stringent requirements.

    Major reservations in the Council about ‘zero risk’ category

    Numerous member states have major reservations about this, as can be heard from Council circles. They fear, for example, that such a regulation would not be WTO-compliant, that loopholes would be created that would impair the effectiveness of the regulation, or that there is not enough time to prepare the innovation in a legally secure manner. According to reports, a possible compromise could be to stipulate that the introduction of a “zero risk” category will be examined as part of the review of the directive scheduled for 2028.

    CDU politician Schneider and the federal government – now without the FDP – are blaming each other. Schneider spoke of a “blockade attitude without constructive contributions” from the SPD and the Greens. Federal Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir, for his part, called on the EU Parliament to clear the way for the postponement of the EUDR in the trialogue. He had sharply criticized the EPP for its amendments at the beginning of the week. S&D MEP Delara Burkhardt, who is leading the negotiations for her group, also called on the EPP to “stop playing political games” and drop the amendments. jd

    • Entwaldung

    Municipal utilities defend themselves against consolidation

    The municipal utilities association VKU is against calls for larger economic players in Europe, as Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi had advocated in their reports. This was also discussed with Germany’s deputy ambassador to the EU, Helen Winter, said the re-elected VKU CEO Ingbert Liebing at a press conference in Brussels on Wednesday.

    The municipal utilities feared that pressure could be exerted from the European level to consolidate structures in the municipal sector, particularly in the energy, water, telecommunications and recycling sectors. According to the VKU, there have already been attempts at federal level to transfer responsibilities to larger companies, for example for redispatch and electricity metering.

    Municipalities do not want to lead the way in green procurement

    The municipal utilities are also against a European climate target of 90 percent for 2040, as proposed by the Commission. Germany would then probably have to achieve an even higher reduction. Instead, the EU should focus on implementing the 2030 climate target and not set the 2040 target until 2028/29, Liebing demanded. Another option would be a revision clause if the target is to be set as early as next year.

    The municipal companies also do not want to support the initiatives for green lead markets. Draghi, among others, had suggested that the public sector should lead the way in the procurement of climate-friendly goods. “If conditions are only imposed on public companies, this will hinder them in competition with private companies,” said Liebing. For example, the VKU is against an obligation to only procure products with a minimum proportion of recycled materials. ber

    • Öffentliche Beschaffung

    EU and Singapore cooperate on AI safety

    The EU Commission and Singapore’s Ministry for Digital Development have agreed on a cooperation between the EU AI Office and the Singapore AI Safety Institute. The aim is to promote safe, trustworthy and human-centered AI. Joint tests, tools, standardization and research on the safety of AI models are planned. The partners will also exchange information on technological trends and developments.

    The agreement is part of the EU-Singapore Digital Partnership concluded in 2023. Margrethe Vestager emphasized the importance of common standards for innovation and security. “With security in focus, innovation can move forward with minimal risk and deepen the understanding of this fascinating but challenging technology,” said the outgoing Executive Vice-President. vis

    • Künstliche Intelligenz-Verordnung

    Cyber Resilience Act: Deadlines for implementation are now running

    On Wednesday, the Cyber Resilience Act (CRA) was officially published in the Official Journal of the European Union. This means that the deadlines for the implementation of IT security regulations are now running. The CRA is the first European regulation that defines a minimum level of cyber security for all networked products that come onto the market in the EU.

    The aim of the Cyber Resilience Act is to protect consumers and companies that buy or use products or software with a digital component. The Act provides for mandatory cyber security requirements for manufacturers and retailers of such products. The protection extends over the entire product life cycle. The new regulation comes into force 20 days after publication. It will be implemented in various stages until all new products must meet the requirements by 2027.

    Cyber Resilience Act could set standards

    Norbert Pohlmann, Board Member for IT Security at eco Association of the Internet Industry, calls the Cyber Resilience Act an important milestone for strengthening cyber security in Europe. It has the potential to position Europe as a pioneer in cyber security and to set global standards for networked devices in the long term. It is to be welcomed that the CRA clearly assigns responsibilities. “Manufacturers will be held more accountable for meeting cybersecurity requirements not only during development, but throughout the entire life cycle of their products.” This approach is a decisive step towards sustainably strengthening resilience and trust in digital products.

    The solution found for open-source technologies also represents a compromise that brings together security requirements and the promotion of innovation. “Nevertheless, we must continue to monitor the implementation critically and constructively to ensure that open source projects are not impaired by excessive requirements,” said Pohlmann. vis

    • Consumer protection
    • CRA
    • Cybersicherheit
    • Digital policy

    Trump’s former Attorney General to become NATO ambassador

    US President-elect Donald Trump wants to appoint Matthew Whittaker as the US ambassador to NATO – a lawyer who was Attorney General for a few months during Trump’s first presidency. Trump announced that Whitaker will strengthen relations with NATO partners and remain steadfast in the face of threats to peace and stability. “I have every confidence in Matt’s ability to represent the United States with strength, integrity and unwavering dedication.”

    Whitaker stepped in as interim Attorney General in November 2018 after Trump forced his Then-Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, to resign. The background was an investigation into possible collusion between Russia and Trump’s campaign camp before the 2016 presidential election.

    Filling the post at NATO is important. During the election campaign, Trump repeatedly raised doubts as to whether the USA would fully stand by its commitment to NATO under his leadership. He criticized some of the European allies for failing to meet the alliance’s defense spending targets. However, Trump did not repeat earlier threats of withdrawal. dpa

    • Donald Trump
    Translation missing.

    Heads

    Howard Lutnick – Future US Secretary of Commerce is a fan of tariffs

    Howard Lutnick during his speech at Madison Square Garden: The future US Secretary of Commerce is a longtime friend and ideological ally of Donald Trump.

    New York, Madison Square Garden, a few days before the election. The greats of the MAGA universe have gathered on the stage of the world’s most famous arena to give Donald Trump’s campaign the final push. The Republican’s sons are speaking, vice presidential candidate JD Vance, billionaire Elon Musk. But shortly before Trump himself gives his speech, a man with a beard streaked with gray and a very high forehead steps up to the podium: Howard Lutnick, CEO of investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald.

    Lutnick is not a star. Very few of the 20,000 or so spectators are likely to recognize his name. But he is important in Trump’s orbit – as evidenced not only by his prominent speaking slot. As one of the co-chairs of the Republican campaign’s transition team, he has been preparing the new administration’s most important personnel decisions for months.

    An enormous amount of power

    Now he has secured an important position for himself: On Tuesday, the former and future president nominated the 63-year-old as the next Secretary of Commerce and announced that Lutnick would simultaneously assume “direct responsibility” for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

    The Wall Street man is therefore likely to become one of the central figures for one of the most important concerns of the next Trump administration: the imposition of tariffs with the aim of enforcing the president’s will.

    It is not the role that Lutnick was aiming for. In recent weeks, he has hardly faltered in his bid for the post of Treasury Secretary, securing the support of influential Trump whisperers such as Elon Musk. But even if the banker missed out on the more prestigious job in the Treasury Department, located right next to the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue, his new role is likely to come with an enormous amount of power.

    ‘Impose tariffs on China and make $400 billion’

    The Department of Commerce (DoC) oversees a whole range of government agencies and institutions that are crucial to US economic policy. In his role as the United States Trade Representative (USTR), Lutnick will also steer the trade policy of the world’s largest economy. The Trump team has not announced whether he will formally take on the role. The jobs of Secretary of Commerce and Trade Representative are usually separate.

    In Howard Lutnick, Trump is appointing a long-time friend to his cabinet – and an ideological ally. The investment banker supports the president-elect’s vision of using tariffs to bring industrial jobs back to the USA. He also sees the import surcharges in a positive light. “Don’t tax our people. Make money instead,” Lutnick recently said in a podcast. “Impose tariffs on China and make $400 billion.”

    These statements coincide with Trump’s plan to impose a special 60 percent levy on all imports from the People’s Republic. It would be a massive escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, which Trump started during his first term in office and the effects of which are still being felt today. Numerous tariffs imposed by the Republican at the time remained in force during the Biden years.

    Bleak prospects for Europe, especially for Germany

    China is likely to remain the focus of Trump’s trade policy. However, Europe could also face difficult years with Lutnick in office. After all, the president-elect announced during the election campaign that he would impose a 10 or 20 percent tariff on all imports. This would cost the European Union dearly. According to analysts, exports from the eurozone to the USA could slump by around a third if Trump were to impose a tariff of ten percent. Most recently, the volume of exports to the United States amounted to around €460 billion per year. And Germany in particular could be severely affected by such a slump.

    This is because the United States is the most important export market for German companies. In 2023, they sent goods worth around €168 billion across the Atlantic. A slump here could send the German economy into recession, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel recently warned in Die Zeit. But this could be just the beginning.

    Even during his first term in office, Trump had one German sector in particular in his sights: the automotive industry. Under the then Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, the USTR prepared a report that would have enabled the Trump administration to impose punitive tariffs of 25 percent on imports of German cars and car parts. In the end, Trump was dissuaded from these plans and the report ended up in the archives. But under Lutnick, it could end up back on the agenda.

    • China
    • Duties
    • Trade policy

    Dessert

    COP29: The EU is ‘Fossil of the Day’

    The “Fossil of the Day” prize is awarded every day at COP – to those countries that do too little for climate action and still use fossil fuels.

    The EU received an inglorious prize at COP29. It is the Fossil of the Day. The “Fossil of the Day” award is traditionally presented on each COP day by the civil society organizations of the Climate Action Network (CAN) to the biggest polluters, users of fossil fuels and blockers of ambitious climate policy.

    After the G7, Italy and Russia, the EU was “crowned” on Wednesday. This is because it still has not presented a figure on how much it intends to provide for international climate financing in the future – the most important topic to be negotiated at COP29.

    How is climate financing made up? Hoekstra remains silent

    EU Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra made it clear on Wednesday that he was not only concerned with the number, but also with what would ultimately flow into the total: only public funds? Private contributions as well? Loans or just grants? The EU negotiators remain silent on all of this and are not revealing their position publicly. For CAN, this is the reason to award the EU the “Fossil of the Day”, accompanied by the Jurassic Park anthem.

    However, the price for the EU is also somewhat cynical. After all, the EU is the largest contributor to climate financing to date – the only one paying its fair share in terms of emissions. With the Green Deal, the EU has the most ambitious climate policy of all industrialized nations. Other industrialized nations, above all the USA, emit significantly more but pay less and present climate targets that are far less ambitious. In Baku, they have not yet been crowned “Fossil of the Day”, although this award would be more than deserved. Lukas Knigge

    Europe.Table Editorial Team

    EUROPE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

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