At first glance, climate action seemed to take a hit in Sunday’s European elections. In Germany, the climate change deniers of the AfD gained significantly. The Greens are considered the biggest losers, losing 2.6 percent of the vote across Europe. Surprisingly, many young voters, who will be the most affected by the climate crisis in the long term, voted for the AfD. Lukas Scheid analyzes today’s election results and what they mean for the European Green Deal. Spoiler: It’s not all as negative as it seems at first.
After the EU election, the next summit is already in sight: Today and tomorrow, a high-level Ukraine reconstruction conference is taking place in Berlin. Bernhard Pötter analyzes how Ukraine’s energy system can be rebuilt to be as climate-friendly, cost-effective and quick as possible. Renewable energies have particularly great potential in this regard. Some hurdles will need to be overcome after the end of Russian attacks to achieve a green reconstruction.
In Bonn, the COP interim conference SB60 is preparing for the next major climate conference at the end of the year in Baku. We are using this “class reunion” of climate negotiators, scientists and civil society observers to launch our new series “Top of the Table”. With this series, we aim to introduce you to the 100 key players of the international climate scene. We begin with the category of administration.
Your Nico Beckert
Feature
Green Deal: what the election results mean for EU climate policy
Ursula von der Leyen, the current and likely next President of the European Commission, intends to continue supporting the Green Deal.
Since Sunday, it has become clear that climate action is no longer a compelling campaign theme. In the “climate election” of 2019, the Greens achieved a record result primarily due to their climate action profile. Now, it appears their electoral defeat could be interpreted as a vote on climate policy. But how likely is it that the new European Parliament will block or even reverse climate action measures?
Linda Kalcher, the Executive Director of the Brussels think tank Strategic Perspectives, observes that there has not been a “tectonic shift to the far right“. She believes that far-right extremists will not gain more power over the next five years. Although they have gained ground, the likely majority around the election winner, the European People’s Party (EPP), is unlikely to cooperate with them.
‘No vote against climate policy’
Experts from the European branch of the Climate Action Network (CAN Europe) share a similar view. They stated on Monday that the new majority still has the power to continue the Green Deal. Sven Harmeling, Head of Climate Policy at CAN Europe, also sees “no basis to describe the European elections as a vote against climate policy”.
The results were not uniform across all member states: While many countries saw a shift to the right, others, especially in Scandinavia, saw gains for parties with strong climate policies. “A large majority of people still support strong climate policies, and there are many actors in the economy who know they want and need to invest.”
Von der Leyen: ‘Doing everything we can to combat climate change’
Ursula von der Leyen, the election winner and current and likely next President of the European Commission, made it clear on Monday that she does not intend to reverse the Green Deal. The EPP’s election program already stated that they would do everything to combat climate change. Now begins a “very important phase of implementation“. Von der Leyen said that talks with industry and agriculture are already underway to determine how to help them achieve their climate goals.
There is consensus in other countries and factions that the Green Deal was not voted down. Krzysztof Bolesta, Poland’s State Secretary for Climate Issues and a member of the European Renew party family, told Reuters that while new measures will be harder to pass, a rollback is very unlikely.
Is the ‘green’ label a communication issue?
The EPP has not yet commented on whether they will negotiate cooperation with a third faction in addition to the Socialists and Liberals. However, Kalcher believes that if the EPP wants to continue climate action, the Greens are a better choice than Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia. The climate tasks of the next European Commission will differ from the last. Many new initiatives will focus on strengthening industrial competitiveness and energy security. They may not carry the “climate ambitions” label but will reduce emissions and fulfill the Green Deal.
Former Bulgarian Environment Minister Julian Popov criticized the “Green Deal” label on Monday morning. He argued that linking the term “Green” to a political party created a communication problem and contributed to the rejection of climate policy. Kalcher expects the language to change, but the actual measures to remain the same. with Alexandra Endres and Till Hoppe
Climate & Environment
EU-Klimapolitik
European election 2024
Green Deal
Ursula von der Leyen
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Ukraine: a ‘solar Marshall Plan’ to drive green reconstruction
Village near Kyiv in May 2023, with a Russian tank wreck in the background: Ukraine is set to increasingly rely on solar energy in the future.
According to environmental organization Greenpeace, a “solar Marshall Plan” should swiftly and affordably rebuild Ukraine’s beleaguered energy infrastructure in a climate-friendly manner. At the reconstruction conference on June 11-12 in Berlin, Greenpeace will present a study revealing substantial potential for solar energy in Ukraine. However, it also identifies obstacles in terms of grid expansion, Ukrainian energy policy, and costs. The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy, when queried by Table.Briefings, expressed support for the plan’s conclusions and recommendations, while the German Ministry of Economic Affairs is still evaluating the plan.
Russian attacks on Ukraine have long focused on its energy infrastructure. According to official reports, the damages are extensive: By October 2023, due to war damage or Russian occupation, Ukraine had lost 44 percent of its nuclear power capacity, 78 percent of its thermal power capacity (mostly coal and gas), and 60 percent of its combined heat and power capacity. The reconstruction of the energy system is estimated to cost nearly 43 billion euros, with 2.4 billion euros already due in 2024.
Great potential for renewables
The potential for renewables in such reconstruction, according to a study by consulting firm Berlin Economics, is substantial. Currently, Ukraine has about eight gigawatts (GW) of installed solar capacity, but only about six GW are available. Government plans foresee an increase of only 0.7 GW by 2027. However, the new study suggests that photovoltaic (PV) systems could add 9.2 GW to the grid by 2027, potentially reaching 14 GW by 2030. This would require investments of approximately 4.4 billion euros. “Expanding solar energy is the most cost-effective and quickest way to secure electricity supply,” says study author Pavel Bilek to Table.Briefings. “A solar Marshall Plan must be a key element of the energy strategy.”
Such expansion would align with UN goals to triple global renewable capacities by 2030. Climate activists see Ukraine as an opportunity to swiftly and comprehensively demonstrate what a climate-friendly transformation in an industrialized country could look like.
Obstacles: investments, electricity market, high prices
The study also identifies obstacles to solar expansion. For the Marshall Plan to succeed, Ukraine would need to:
liberalize and fundamentally modernize its energy sector, moving away from a monopolistic organization.
secure substantial funding for the overhaul and ensure investments are protected against corruption.
expand and modernize its grid infrastructure.
implement social measures to mitigate rising energy prices.
adapt energy future planning to align with Ukraine’s EU accession.
Nataliia Kovb from the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy told Table.Briefings that they welcome the efforts of Greenpeace and the company Berlin Economics, with whom they have been working for a long time. It gives a “positive signal” that there is “a light at the end of the tunnel and that this light is green and sustainable”. The ministry will “incorporate the recommendations into future policy”.
Ukraine: open to plans, working on reforms
However, due to the war and ongoing destruction of energy infrastructure, “not all our plans can be fully implemented on schedule”. Nevertheless, “we are actively working on developing the renewable market”. They are open to investments and aim to improve the business climate in the energy sector. Private investors require financing, insurance against war influences, favorable financial conditions and clear rules in the electricity market. The ministry continues its work on reforms in the power market.
In April, Economy Minister Robert Habeck also addressed the issue. During a visit to the Kyiv suburb of Irpin, he inaugurated a new school equipped with solar panels after its reconstruction. The school is part of the “Energy Action Ukraine” project, through which German companies equip Ukrainian schools with solar technology. He discussed with the Ministry of Energy in Kyiv how solar panels could “secure part of the supply over the summer” in the short term. Solar power could be “a piece of the puzzle in rebuilding the supply”. His ministry stated they would now read and review the current “solar Marshall Plan”.
Boom in communities and private homes
The “Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit” (GIZ) noted significant interest in solar systems on residential buildings in spring. “Many private homeowners, businesses and municipalities are installing solar panels for self-consumption because electricity is cheap and available off-grid,” says GIZ expert Robert Michael Kuenne. This allows for decentralized electricity, heating, and even drinking water supply.
Strategic objectives also speak in favor of expansion during the war:
Decentralized power is less susceptible to disruptions than the grid.
Infrastructure construction is quick and easy to secure.
Solar and wind installations are harder to target than large coal, gas or nuclear power plants.
Unlike fossil fuel and nuclear facilities, wind and solar power plants do not pose a danger to the safety of people in the vicinity if damaged. Dams are also lucrative targets for extensive destruction by an attacker, as happened in the spring of 2023 at the Kachowka Dam.
Expansion of renewables aligns with Ukraine’s plans to approach the EU and a common electricity market.
By 2050, according to government policy, Ukraine aims to derive half of its electricity from renewables and half from nuclear power. Ukraine will commence construction of two new reactor blocks in the western part of the country this year and plans two more. These blocks are intended to replace the Russian-occupied and now completely shut down Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.
Planning: renewables and new nuclear power plants with EU funds
Currently, it is uncertain who will finance renewables. According to Kyiv’s government plans, nearly eleven billion euros will be needed for wind and solar energy expansion between 2024 and 2027, resulting in eight GW of wind power capacity and 0.7 GW of solar power.
The Ukrainian government, in its report to the EU, also sees significant renewable potential: 83 GW of photovoltaics, 438 GW of onshore wind, 250 GW of offshore wind, and ten to 20 percent of current natural gas usage could be replaced by biomethane. However, renewables still make up a small proportion of the energy mix: In 2022, about five percent of electricity came from solar and less than one percent from wind. In contrast, 55 percent came from nuclear, 23 percent from coal, and nine percent from hydropower.
Goal: climate-neutral Ukraine by 2060
A Greenpeace-commissioned study from the spring sees even greater potential for renewables than the government does: Solar power capacity could be 60 times higher than government estimates. Ukraine could create 20,000 new jobs with wind and solar and generate up to 150 times its current electricity needs. With new power lines, the country could become a major electricity exporter to Western Europe or a hydrogen hub. “These are very good news for Ukraine,” said Greenpeace expert Andree Böhling.
The potential for energy savings is also enormous: Ukrainian buildings consume two to three times more heating energy per unit than those in the EU. The deteriorating electricity and gas grids lose 10 percent and up to 18 percent of their energy in transit, respectively, compared to just under 3 percent in the EU.
The government plans a “green transformation of the energy sector”. By 2035, coal use for electricity generation will end, renewables will be expanded, and the grid and energy management will be modernized. By 2060, Ukraine aims to be climate neutral. This includes expanding the nuclear fleet and increasing uranium mining. The EU will co-finance these efforts under its new taxonomy rules for “CO2-free energy”.
Renewable energies
Solar
Strommarkt
Ukraine
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News
Study: the path to ‘good NDCs for 2035’
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) science platform cautions that insufficient targets in the upcoming national climate plans (NDCs) endanger the goal of maintaining the 1.5-degree limit. Governments must “switch to emergency mode and increase their ambition for 2030 targets and current policy implementation,” it was stated on Monday during the presentation of a new CAT “guide to a good 2035 climate target“.
For effective 2035 NDCs, which need to be submitted in 2025, a significant tightening of existing 2030 NDCs and their implementation into current policy is essential. If this does not happen, ambitious 2035 targets will be of little use, as it will no longer be possible to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, leading to “decades of significant overshooting of this limit.”
CAT outlines four conditions for these 2035 targets for the respective NDCs:
Ambition: enhanced 2030 NDCs and 2035 plans that align with the scientific requirements for the 1.5-degree limit and encompass entire economies.
Finance and fairness: Developed countries should provide significantly more funding for climate financing; developing countries should precisely specify their needs.
Credibility: Governments should have robust implementation plans for their targets and clearly state how they will bridge the gap to measures focused on 1.5 degrees, end fossil fuel subsidies and stop the exploration and production of fossil fuels.
Transparency: Countries should set reduction targets for all greenhouse gas emissions and focus on achieving reductions domestically without accounting for sinks such as land use, carbon dioxide removal technologies (CDR) or carbon markets. If they include these, they should specify to what extent this is planned. bpo
NDC
How the UK misrepresents its climate financing
In 2023, the UK allocated the equivalent of 2.1 billion euros for international climate finance, a new record. However, the government has relaxed its definition of climate finance. For instance, 30 percent of humanitarian aid to countries most affected by the climate crisis is now counted as climate finance, even if the projects have no direct climate connection, as reported by the specialist portal Carbon Brief. At least 236 million euros of the increase are attributed to this change in definition.
The British government aims to provide the equivalent of 13.7 billion euros for climate finance between 2021/22 and 2025/26. To reach this goal, annual payments would need to double by 2025/26. For comparison, EU climate finance amounted to 28.8 billion euros in 2022. This, too, has faced criticism, as a significant portion was provided in the form of loans. nib
Klimafinanzierung
US solar industry: meeting 70 percent of domestic demand soon
The US has ramped up its solar module production capacity from 15.6 gigawatts in the previous quarter to 26.6 gigawatts in the first quarter of 2024. Once these factories are fully operational, they can meet about 70 percent of domestic demand, according to a recent report by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). The American solar industry is receiving substantial support from the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides billions in tax incentives.
In addition to the increased production capacity, solar power generation capacity has also seen significant growth. In Q1 2024, 11.8 gigawatts of solar power capacity were added, marking the second-best quarter historically. The majority of this increase (9.8 gigawatts) came from utility-scale solar projects. However, residential solar installations lagged with 1.3 gigawatts, the weakest quarter since early 2022. SEIA forecasts that the US will install 40 gigawatts of new solar capacity annually over the next five years. Nevertheless, growth is expected to be limited by a shortage of skilled labor, supply chain challenges for high-voltage equipment, and uncertainties in trade policy. nib
Solar
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Forest protection: why national climate plans are insufficient
The goals and measures embedded in the NDCs are not enough to stop and reverse deforestation by 2030. This is the conclusion of a UN-REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) program report presented on Monday at the SB60 interim conference in Bonn. The report analyzed NDCs submitted between 2017 and 2021 by the 20 countries most responsible for tropical forest deforestation. None of these countries have included sufficient forest protection measures in their NDCs. Only eight of the 20 countries have quantified targets for reducing deforestation, while eleven have at least qualitative goals. Mexico, however, has set an adaptation goal to achieve net-zero deforestation by 2030.
At COP26 in Glasgow, over 140 countries committed to halting and reversing deforestation by 2030. Current data, such as from Global Forest Watch, show that the world is far from achieving this goal. While there have been recent advances in Brazil and Colombia, deforestation in Bolivia and the Democratic Republic of Congohas reached record highs.
The report also acknowledges that NDCs alone do not provide a complete picture of a country’s efforts to stop deforestation. For example, Brazil and Indonesia’s NDCs do not include specific forest targets, but both countries have committed in other plans to end deforestation by 2030. To implement more ambitious forest goals, significantly more funding for forest protection is needed; one potential solution is innovative instruments like debt-for-nature swaps. kul
Wald
Floods in southern Germany: the extent of climate influence
A quick analysis conducted by the EU-funded research consortium ClimaMeter concluded that the heavy rainfall in southern Germany at the beginning of June was up to ten percent more intense due to climate change. The research team compared current data with data from the period between 1979 and 2001. El Niño and other natural phenomena, on the other hand, played “no role in exacerbating the floods”.
Several people lost their lives in the flooding in parts of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg. Thousands had to be evacuated. Additionally, the reconstruction efforts following dam breaches and landslides are proving to be challenging.
The study highlights that low-pressure systems in southern Germany, in general, are already around ten percent more intense due to the influence of climate change. “Even in a country like Germany, where riverbanks are well equipped to manage flood risk, current measures are no longer sufficient to cope with the increased runoff volumes in these catchment areas,” warns study author Erika Coppola, who conducts research at the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Italy. lb
Hochwasser
Heads
The key players of the climate scene – administration
Ajay Banga – President, World Bank
Since taking office as President of the World Bank in June 2023, Ajay Banga has been driving its climate-friendly transformation. In an era where financial issues dominate global climate policy, this gives him enormous significance. Banga has given the Bank a new mandate to “end poverty – on a livable planet“, promising more funds for climate adaptation and emission reduction, and aims to mobilize significantly more capital from private sources for the green transformation of the world economy. He brings extensive experience to the role, having held senior positions at financial institutions like Citigroup and Mastercard.
Selwin Hart – UN Special Adviser and Assistant Secretary-General for Climate Action, United Nations
As Special Adviser on Climate Change, Hart leads the Climate Action Team of UN Secretary-General António Guterres, advocating for more ambitious national climate targets, the phasing out of fossil fuels, and increased international climate financing. Before becoming the UN Special Adviser, Hart served as Executive Director of the Inter-American Development Bank. His first climate conference was COP13 (2007) in Bali, where the trained economist represented the interests of island states and small developing countries as a negotiator.
Simon Stiell – Executive Secretary, UNFCCC
As the UN’s climate chief, Stiell is a bridge-builder. He needs to push for climate protection while balancing the diverse interests and positions of individual states, even in geopolitically challenging times. Stiell has extensive experience in climate diplomacy and was the Environment Minister of Grenada. As a child, he lived for two years in Germany – in Lemgo, Westphalia.
Berthold Goeke – Head of Climate Action Department, Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, Germany
As head of the “K” department in the BMWK, Berthold Goeke oversees most of Germany’s climate action programs and measures: nationally, including at the municipal level and internationally, such as the “International Climate Initiative” (IKI) or the “Climate Club” for industrial decarbonization in about 40 countries worldwide. The jurist from Münster began his career in 1996 as a consultant for environmental protection and reactor safety in the Federal Chancellery under Helmut Kohl and continued it from 2010 in the Ministry of the Environment. In 2022, he moved to the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action under the Green Minister Robert Habeck.
Kurt Vandenberghe – Director General Climate Action, EU DG Clima
As Director General, Kurt Vandenberghe and his DG Clima are responsible for developing the measures and instruments that the European Commission will propose. Long before legislative proposals see the light of day, the directorates-general prepare impact assessments, analyses and financial needs. Vandenberghe has overseen this work on climate action since early 2023. Previously, he advised Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as a member of her cabinet on Green Deal issues.
Doris König – Chairwoman of the 2nd Senate, Federal Constitutional Court
In November 2023, the 2nd Senate of the Federal Constitutional Court, chaired by Doris König, ruled that the federal government’s Climate Special Fund was unconstitutional, primarily citing the debt brake. This decision overturned a crucial pillar of German climate policy, leaving the German government short of 60 billion euros for climate initiatives. König, the first academic in her family, is an expert in international and European law. She earned her Ph.D. in 1989 from the University of Kiel, focusing on marine environmental protection. She served on the Advisory Board for International Law at the Foreign Office and was President of the Bucerius Law School in Hamburg before joining the Federal Constitutional Court in 2014. She has been its Vice President since 2020.
Dirk Messner – President, Federal Environment Agency
As President of Germany’s top environmental authority, Dirk Messner is the main advisor to the federal government and parliament on climate and environmental issues. This role has become increasingly important as scientific facts are more frequently challenged in political debates. His 1,600 employees conduct studies, determine Germany’s greenhouse gas balance, participate in numerous committees and manage the CO2 trade in Germany. The political scientist has extensive international experience, including as Director of the German Development Institute.
Klaus Müller – President, Federal Network Agency
The Federal Network Agency is also responsible for telephone and railway networks – but due to the energy transition and gas crisis, energy supply has recently been at the forefront of Klaus Müller’s attention. The agency, which he has led for a year and a half, is responsible for planning electricity and gas networks, gas storage, reserve power plants and the tendering of wind and solar systems. This makes Müller one of the key partners of Economy Minister Robert Habeck, who appointed him in 2022. Previously, Müller was a board member of the Federation of German Consumer Organisations and, like Habeck, Minister of Energy in Schleswig-Holstein.
Ingrid-Gabriela Hoven – Member of the Management Board, GIZ
Since studying economics and politics in Gießen, Hoven has focused on development policy. After starting her career at the Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), she worked at the then-GTZ (German Technical Cooperation Agency) on economic and social issues before returning to BMZ, where she turned to global environmental policy. From 2010 to 2014, she represented Germany as Executive Director at the World Bank, advocating for financial institution reforms. After returning to BMZ, she became Commissioner for Climate Policy and Finance, helping to establish the Green Climate Fund. She has been a board member of the state-run Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) since October 2020.
Norbert Gorißen – Head of Climate Department, Federal Foreign Office
As a senior engineer in the Federal Foreign Office, Norbert Gorißen is the highest-ranking German voice in international climate diplomacy after Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and State Secretary Jennifer Morgan. Gorißen leads official and informal talks at conferences, state visits and bilateral meetings. For over 20 years, he headed the International Department at the Federal Environment Ministry, negotiating international climate finance for the EU in the Paris Agreement and representing Germany in the Green Climate Fund. He started his career in 1986 at the Federal Environment Agency and is among the small group of climate experts who transitioned from the Environment Ministry to the Federal Foreign Office after the 2021 election.
At first glance, climate action seemed to take a hit in Sunday’s European elections. In Germany, the climate change deniers of the AfD gained significantly. The Greens are considered the biggest losers, losing 2.6 percent of the vote across Europe. Surprisingly, many young voters, who will be the most affected by the climate crisis in the long term, voted for the AfD. Lukas Scheid analyzes today’s election results and what they mean for the European Green Deal. Spoiler: It’s not all as negative as it seems at first.
After the EU election, the next summit is already in sight: Today and tomorrow, a high-level Ukraine reconstruction conference is taking place in Berlin. Bernhard Pötter analyzes how Ukraine’s energy system can be rebuilt to be as climate-friendly, cost-effective and quick as possible. Renewable energies have particularly great potential in this regard. Some hurdles will need to be overcome after the end of Russian attacks to achieve a green reconstruction.
In Bonn, the COP interim conference SB60 is preparing for the next major climate conference at the end of the year in Baku. We are using this “class reunion” of climate negotiators, scientists and civil society observers to launch our new series “Top of the Table”. With this series, we aim to introduce you to the 100 key players of the international climate scene. We begin with the category of administration.
Your Nico Beckert
Feature
Green Deal: what the election results mean for EU climate policy
Ursula von der Leyen, the current and likely next President of the European Commission, intends to continue supporting the Green Deal.
Since Sunday, it has become clear that climate action is no longer a compelling campaign theme. In the “climate election” of 2019, the Greens achieved a record result primarily due to their climate action profile. Now, it appears their electoral defeat could be interpreted as a vote on climate policy. But how likely is it that the new European Parliament will block or even reverse climate action measures?
Linda Kalcher, the Executive Director of the Brussels think tank Strategic Perspectives, observes that there has not been a “tectonic shift to the far right“. She believes that far-right extremists will not gain more power over the next five years. Although they have gained ground, the likely majority around the election winner, the European People’s Party (EPP), is unlikely to cooperate with them.
‘No vote against climate policy’
Experts from the European branch of the Climate Action Network (CAN Europe) share a similar view. They stated on Monday that the new majority still has the power to continue the Green Deal. Sven Harmeling, Head of Climate Policy at CAN Europe, also sees “no basis to describe the European elections as a vote against climate policy”.
The results were not uniform across all member states: While many countries saw a shift to the right, others, especially in Scandinavia, saw gains for parties with strong climate policies. “A large majority of people still support strong climate policies, and there are many actors in the economy who know they want and need to invest.”
Von der Leyen: ‘Doing everything we can to combat climate change’
Ursula von der Leyen, the election winner and current and likely next President of the European Commission, made it clear on Monday that she does not intend to reverse the Green Deal. The EPP’s election program already stated that they would do everything to combat climate change. Now begins a “very important phase of implementation“. Von der Leyen said that talks with industry and agriculture are already underway to determine how to help them achieve their climate goals.
There is consensus in other countries and factions that the Green Deal was not voted down. Krzysztof Bolesta, Poland’s State Secretary for Climate Issues and a member of the European Renew party family, told Reuters that while new measures will be harder to pass, a rollback is very unlikely.
Is the ‘green’ label a communication issue?
The EPP has not yet commented on whether they will negotiate cooperation with a third faction in addition to the Socialists and Liberals. However, Kalcher believes that if the EPP wants to continue climate action, the Greens are a better choice than Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia. The climate tasks of the next European Commission will differ from the last. Many new initiatives will focus on strengthening industrial competitiveness and energy security. They may not carry the “climate ambitions” label but will reduce emissions and fulfill the Green Deal.
Former Bulgarian Environment Minister Julian Popov criticized the “Green Deal” label on Monday morning. He argued that linking the term “Green” to a political party created a communication problem and contributed to the rejection of climate policy. Kalcher expects the language to change, but the actual measures to remain the same. with Alexandra Endres and Till Hoppe
Climate & Environment
EU-Klimapolitik
European election 2024
Green Deal
Ursula von der Leyen
Translation missing.
Ukraine: a ‘solar Marshall Plan’ to drive green reconstruction
Village near Kyiv in May 2023, with a Russian tank wreck in the background: Ukraine is set to increasingly rely on solar energy in the future.
According to environmental organization Greenpeace, a “solar Marshall Plan” should swiftly and affordably rebuild Ukraine’s beleaguered energy infrastructure in a climate-friendly manner. At the reconstruction conference on June 11-12 in Berlin, Greenpeace will present a study revealing substantial potential for solar energy in Ukraine. However, it also identifies obstacles in terms of grid expansion, Ukrainian energy policy, and costs. The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy, when queried by Table.Briefings, expressed support for the plan’s conclusions and recommendations, while the German Ministry of Economic Affairs is still evaluating the plan.
Russian attacks on Ukraine have long focused on its energy infrastructure. According to official reports, the damages are extensive: By October 2023, due to war damage or Russian occupation, Ukraine had lost 44 percent of its nuclear power capacity, 78 percent of its thermal power capacity (mostly coal and gas), and 60 percent of its combined heat and power capacity. The reconstruction of the energy system is estimated to cost nearly 43 billion euros, with 2.4 billion euros already due in 2024.
Great potential for renewables
The potential for renewables in such reconstruction, according to a study by consulting firm Berlin Economics, is substantial. Currently, Ukraine has about eight gigawatts (GW) of installed solar capacity, but only about six GW are available. Government plans foresee an increase of only 0.7 GW by 2027. However, the new study suggests that photovoltaic (PV) systems could add 9.2 GW to the grid by 2027, potentially reaching 14 GW by 2030. This would require investments of approximately 4.4 billion euros. “Expanding solar energy is the most cost-effective and quickest way to secure electricity supply,” says study author Pavel Bilek to Table.Briefings. “A solar Marshall Plan must be a key element of the energy strategy.”
Such expansion would align with UN goals to triple global renewable capacities by 2030. Climate activists see Ukraine as an opportunity to swiftly and comprehensively demonstrate what a climate-friendly transformation in an industrialized country could look like.
Obstacles: investments, electricity market, high prices
The study also identifies obstacles to solar expansion. For the Marshall Plan to succeed, Ukraine would need to:
liberalize and fundamentally modernize its energy sector, moving away from a monopolistic organization.
secure substantial funding for the overhaul and ensure investments are protected against corruption.
expand and modernize its grid infrastructure.
implement social measures to mitigate rising energy prices.
adapt energy future planning to align with Ukraine’s EU accession.
Nataliia Kovb from the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy told Table.Briefings that they welcome the efforts of Greenpeace and the company Berlin Economics, with whom they have been working for a long time. It gives a “positive signal” that there is “a light at the end of the tunnel and that this light is green and sustainable”. The ministry will “incorporate the recommendations into future policy”.
Ukraine: open to plans, working on reforms
However, due to the war and ongoing destruction of energy infrastructure, “not all our plans can be fully implemented on schedule”. Nevertheless, “we are actively working on developing the renewable market”. They are open to investments and aim to improve the business climate in the energy sector. Private investors require financing, insurance against war influences, favorable financial conditions and clear rules in the electricity market. The ministry continues its work on reforms in the power market.
In April, Economy Minister Robert Habeck also addressed the issue. During a visit to the Kyiv suburb of Irpin, he inaugurated a new school equipped with solar panels after its reconstruction. The school is part of the “Energy Action Ukraine” project, through which German companies equip Ukrainian schools with solar technology. He discussed with the Ministry of Energy in Kyiv how solar panels could “secure part of the supply over the summer” in the short term. Solar power could be “a piece of the puzzle in rebuilding the supply”. His ministry stated they would now read and review the current “solar Marshall Plan”.
Boom in communities and private homes
The “Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit” (GIZ) noted significant interest in solar systems on residential buildings in spring. “Many private homeowners, businesses and municipalities are installing solar panels for self-consumption because electricity is cheap and available off-grid,” says GIZ expert Robert Michael Kuenne. This allows for decentralized electricity, heating, and even drinking water supply.
Strategic objectives also speak in favor of expansion during the war:
Decentralized power is less susceptible to disruptions than the grid.
Infrastructure construction is quick and easy to secure.
Solar and wind installations are harder to target than large coal, gas or nuclear power plants.
Unlike fossil fuel and nuclear facilities, wind and solar power plants do not pose a danger to the safety of people in the vicinity if damaged. Dams are also lucrative targets for extensive destruction by an attacker, as happened in the spring of 2023 at the Kachowka Dam.
Expansion of renewables aligns with Ukraine’s plans to approach the EU and a common electricity market.
By 2050, according to government policy, Ukraine aims to derive half of its electricity from renewables and half from nuclear power. Ukraine will commence construction of two new reactor blocks in the western part of the country this year and plans two more. These blocks are intended to replace the Russian-occupied and now completely shut down Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.
Planning: renewables and new nuclear power plants with EU funds
Currently, it is uncertain who will finance renewables. According to Kyiv’s government plans, nearly eleven billion euros will be needed for wind and solar energy expansion between 2024 and 2027, resulting in eight GW of wind power capacity and 0.7 GW of solar power.
The Ukrainian government, in its report to the EU, also sees significant renewable potential: 83 GW of photovoltaics, 438 GW of onshore wind, 250 GW of offshore wind, and ten to 20 percent of current natural gas usage could be replaced by biomethane. However, renewables still make up a small proportion of the energy mix: In 2022, about five percent of electricity came from solar and less than one percent from wind. In contrast, 55 percent came from nuclear, 23 percent from coal, and nine percent from hydropower.
Goal: climate-neutral Ukraine by 2060
A Greenpeace-commissioned study from the spring sees even greater potential for renewables than the government does: Solar power capacity could be 60 times higher than government estimates. Ukraine could create 20,000 new jobs with wind and solar and generate up to 150 times its current electricity needs. With new power lines, the country could become a major electricity exporter to Western Europe or a hydrogen hub. “These are very good news for Ukraine,” said Greenpeace expert Andree Böhling.
The potential for energy savings is also enormous: Ukrainian buildings consume two to three times more heating energy per unit than those in the EU. The deteriorating electricity and gas grids lose 10 percent and up to 18 percent of their energy in transit, respectively, compared to just under 3 percent in the EU.
The government plans a “green transformation of the energy sector”. By 2035, coal use for electricity generation will end, renewables will be expanded, and the grid and energy management will be modernized. By 2060, Ukraine aims to be climate neutral. This includes expanding the nuclear fleet and increasing uranium mining. The EU will co-finance these efforts under its new taxonomy rules for “CO2-free energy”.
Renewable energies
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News
Study: the path to ‘good NDCs for 2035’
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) science platform cautions that insufficient targets in the upcoming national climate plans (NDCs) endanger the goal of maintaining the 1.5-degree limit. Governments must “switch to emergency mode and increase their ambition for 2030 targets and current policy implementation,” it was stated on Monday during the presentation of a new CAT “guide to a good 2035 climate target“.
For effective 2035 NDCs, which need to be submitted in 2025, a significant tightening of existing 2030 NDCs and their implementation into current policy is essential. If this does not happen, ambitious 2035 targets will be of little use, as it will no longer be possible to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, leading to “decades of significant overshooting of this limit.”
CAT outlines four conditions for these 2035 targets for the respective NDCs:
Ambition: enhanced 2030 NDCs and 2035 plans that align with the scientific requirements for the 1.5-degree limit and encompass entire economies.
Finance and fairness: Developed countries should provide significantly more funding for climate financing; developing countries should precisely specify their needs.
Credibility: Governments should have robust implementation plans for their targets and clearly state how they will bridge the gap to measures focused on 1.5 degrees, end fossil fuel subsidies and stop the exploration and production of fossil fuels.
Transparency: Countries should set reduction targets for all greenhouse gas emissions and focus on achieving reductions domestically without accounting for sinks such as land use, carbon dioxide removal technologies (CDR) or carbon markets. If they include these, they should specify to what extent this is planned. bpo
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How the UK misrepresents its climate financing
In 2023, the UK allocated the equivalent of 2.1 billion euros for international climate finance, a new record. However, the government has relaxed its definition of climate finance. For instance, 30 percent of humanitarian aid to countries most affected by the climate crisis is now counted as climate finance, even if the projects have no direct climate connection, as reported by the specialist portal Carbon Brief. At least 236 million euros of the increase are attributed to this change in definition.
The British government aims to provide the equivalent of 13.7 billion euros for climate finance between 2021/22 and 2025/26. To reach this goal, annual payments would need to double by 2025/26. For comparison, EU climate finance amounted to 28.8 billion euros in 2022. This, too, has faced criticism, as a significant portion was provided in the form of loans. nib
Klimafinanzierung
US solar industry: meeting 70 percent of domestic demand soon
The US has ramped up its solar module production capacity from 15.6 gigawatts in the previous quarter to 26.6 gigawatts in the first quarter of 2024. Once these factories are fully operational, they can meet about 70 percent of domestic demand, according to a recent report by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). The American solar industry is receiving substantial support from the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides billions in tax incentives.
In addition to the increased production capacity, solar power generation capacity has also seen significant growth. In Q1 2024, 11.8 gigawatts of solar power capacity were added, marking the second-best quarter historically. The majority of this increase (9.8 gigawatts) came from utility-scale solar projects. However, residential solar installations lagged with 1.3 gigawatts, the weakest quarter since early 2022. SEIA forecasts that the US will install 40 gigawatts of new solar capacity annually over the next five years. Nevertheless, growth is expected to be limited by a shortage of skilled labor, supply chain challenges for high-voltage equipment, and uncertainties in trade policy. nib
Solar
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Forest protection: why national climate plans are insufficient
The goals and measures embedded in the NDCs are not enough to stop and reverse deforestation by 2030. This is the conclusion of a UN-REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) program report presented on Monday at the SB60 interim conference in Bonn. The report analyzed NDCs submitted between 2017 and 2021 by the 20 countries most responsible for tropical forest deforestation. None of these countries have included sufficient forest protection measures in their NDCs. Only eight of the 20 countries have quantified targets for reducing deforestation, while eleven have at least qualitative goals. Mexico, however, has set an adaptation goal to achieve net-zero deforestation by 2030.
At COP26 in Glasgow, over 140 countries committed to halting and reversing deforestation by 2030. Current data, such as from Global Forest Watch, show that the world is far from achieving this goal. While there have been recent advances in Brazil and Colombia, deforestation in Bolivia and the Democratic Republic of Congohas reached record highs.
The report also acknowledges that NDCs alone do not provide a complete picture of a country’s efforts to stop deforestation. For example, Brazil and Indonesia’s NDCs do not include specific forest targets, but both countries have committed in other plans to end deforestation by 2030. To implement more ambitious forest goals, significantly more funding for forest protection is needed; one potential solution is innovative instruments like debt-for-nature swaps. kul
Wald
Floods in southern Germany: the extent of climate influence
A quick analysis conducted by the EU-funded research consortium ClimaMeter concluded that the heavy rainfall in southern Germany at the beginning of June was up to ten percent more intense due to climate change. The research team compared current data with data from the period between 1979 and 2001. El Niño and other natural phenomena, on the other hand, played “no role in exacerbating the floods”.
Several people lost their lives in the flooding in parts of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg. Thousands had to be evacuated. Additionally, the reconstruction efforts following dam breaches and landslides are proving to be challenging.
The study highlights that low-pressure systems in southern Germany, in general, are already around ten percent more intense due to the influence of climate change. “Even in a country like Germany, where riverbanks are well equipped to manage flood risk, current measures are no longer sufficient to cope with the increased runoff volumes in these catchment areas,” warns study author Erika Coppola, who conducts research at the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Italy. lb
Hochwasser
Heads
The key players of the climate scene – administration
Ajay Banga – President, World Bank
Since taking office as President of the World Bank in June 2023, Ajay Banga has been driving its climate-friendly transformation. In an era where financial issues dominate global climate policy, this gives him enormous significance. Banga has given the Bank a new mandate to “end poverty – on a livable planet“, promising more funds for climate adaptation and emission reduction, and aims to mobilize significantly more capital from private sources for the green transformation of the world economy. He brings extensive experience to the role, having held senior positions at financial institutions like Citigroup and Mastercard.
Selwin Hart – UN Special Adviser and Assistant Secretary-General for Climate Action, United Nations
As Special Adviser on Climate Change, Hart leads the Climate Action Team of UN Secretary-General António Guterres, advocating for more ambitious national climate targets, the phasing out of fossil fuels, and increased international climate financing. Before becoming the UN Special Adviser, Hart served as Executive Director of the Inter-American Development Bank. His first climate conference was COP13 (2007) in Bali, where the trained economist represented the interests of island states and small developing countries as a negotiator.
Simon Stiell – Executive Secretary, UNFCCC
As the UN’s climate chief, Stiell is a bridge-builder. He needs to push for climate protection while balancing the diverse interests and positions of individual states, even in geopolitically challenging times. Stiell has extensive experience in climate diplomacy and was the Environment Minister of Grenada. As a child, he lived for two years in Germany – in Lemgo, Westphalia.
Berthold Goeke – Head of Climate Action Department, Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, Germany
As head of the “K” department in the BMWK, Berthold Goeke oversees most of Germany’s climate action programs and measures: nationally, including at the municipal level and internationally, such as the “International Climate Initiative” (IKI) or the “Climate Club” for industrial decarbonization in about 40 countries worldwide. The jurist from Münster began his career in 1996 as a consultant for environmental protection and reactor safety in the Federal Chancellery under Helmut Kohl and continued it from 2010 in the Ministry of the Environment. In 2022, he moved to the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action under the Green Minister Robert Habeck.
Kurt Vandenberghe – Director General Climate Action, EU DG Clima
As Director General, Kurt Vandenberghe and his DG Clima are responsible for developing the measures and instruments that the European Commission will propose. Long before legislative proposals see the light of day, the directorates-general prepare impact assessments, analyses and financial needs. Vandenberghe has overseen this work on climate action since early 2023. Previously, he advised Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as a member of her cabinet on Green Deal issues.
Doris König – Chairwoman of the 2nd Senate, Federal Constitutional Court
In November 2023, the 2nd Senate of the Federal Constitutional Court, chaired by Doris König, ruled that the federal government’s Climate Special Fund was unconstitutional, primarily citing the debt brake. This decision overturned a crucial pillar of German climate policy, leaving the German government short of 60 billion euros for climate initiatives. König, the first academic in her family, is an expert in international and European law. She earned her Ph.D. in 1989 from the University of Kiel, focusing on marine environmental protection. She served on the Advisory Board for International Law at the Foreign Office and was President of the Bucerius Law School in Hamburg before joining the Federal Constitutional Court in 2014. She has been its Vice President since 2020.
Dirk Messner – President, Federal Environment Agency
As President of Germany’s top environmental authority, Dirk Messner is the main advisor to the federal government and parliament on climate and environmental issues. This role has become increasingly important as scientific facts are more frequently challenged in political debates. His 1,600 employees conduct studies, determine Germany’s greenhouse gas balance, participate in numerous committees and manage the CO2 trade in Germany. The political scientist has extensive international experience, including as Director of the German Development Institute.
Klaus Müller – President, Federal Network Agency
The Federal Network Agency is also responsible for telephone and railway networks – but due to the energy transition and gas crisis, energy supply has recently been at the forefront of Klaus Müller’s attention. The agency, which he has led for a year and a half, is responsible for planning electricity and gas networks, gas storage, reserve power plants and the tendering of wind and solar systems. This makes Müller one of the key partners of Economy Minister Robert Habeck, who appointed him in 2022. Previously, Müller was a board member of the Federation of German Consumer Organisations and, like Habeck, Minister of Energy in Schleswig-Holstein.
Ingrid-Gabriela Hoven – Member of the Management Board, GIZ
Since studying economics and politics in Gießen, Hoven has focused on development policy. After starting her career at the Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), she worked at the then-GTZ (German Technical Cooperation Agency) on economic and social issues before returning to BMZ, where she turned to global environmental policy. From 2010 to 2014, she represented Germany as Executive Director at the World Bank, advocating for financial institution reforms. After returning to BMZ, she became Commissioner for Climate Policy and Finance, helping to establish the Green Climate Fund. She has been a board member of the state-run Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) since October 2020.
Norbert Gorißen – Head of Climate Department, Federal Foreign Office
As a senior engineer in the Federal Foreign Office, Norbert Gorißen is the highest-ranking German voice in international climate diplomacy after Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and State Secretary Jennifer Morgan. Gorißen leads official and informal talks at conferences, state visits and bilateral meetings. For over 20 years, he headed the International Department at the Federal Environment Ministry, negotiating international climate finance for the EU in the Paris Agreement and representing Germany in the Green Climate Fund. He started his career in 1986 at the Federal Environment Agency and is among the small group of climate experts who transitioned from the Environment Ministry to the Federal Foreign Office after the 2021 election.
