The 29th UN Climate Change Conference starts today in Baku. And anyone who thought COP29 would only be a semi-interesting “implementation COP” is wrong. The political and economic stakes will be high in Baku: The delegations will have to digest the shock from the USA, where Donald Trump is now preparing to inflict serious damage on US and international climate protection for the second time. Germany, one of the driving forces, is coming to Baku weakened after the end of the traffic light coalition. Wars are still raging in Gaza and Ukraine, which could reshape geopolitics. And while the fear of inflation has not been banished in the industrialized countries, many developing countries are suffering from debt burdens, both of which are slowing down the necessary energy transition.
In this highly charged scenario, the UN states are now expected to agree on a highly sensitive issue: Climate finance, which rich countries use to help poor countries cushion climate damage, drive forward the energy transition and make a start on enforcing “climate justice”. No easy task for the ability to compromise and the creativity of climate diplomacy.
Our Climate.Table team is now on-site. Every day for two weeks, we will be reporting in detail on the developments in front of and behind the scenes, providing analysis, news and background information. A COP can be difficult to understand – we are here to assist and inform.
Like every climate conference, COP29 will be a confusing concentration of negotiations, presentations, show dates, declarations and meetings. For observers and negotiators, there is a great risk of losing track of the most important points. The following topics and key issues will play a decisive role both in front of and behind the scenes:
The end of the traffic light coalition also has an impact on Germany’s presence at the COP in Baku: Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz has canceled his planned trip from Nov. 11 to 12 due to the government crisis. Germany will therefore not be present at the Leaders Summit at the start of the COP; because only heads of state and government are allowed to speak there, Scholz cannot be represented.
The highest-ranking German representative will therefore be Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck. According to the ministry, his planned trip from Nov. 17 to 18 will take place as planned. Parliamentary State Secretary Stefan Wenzel from the BMWK will also be on site from Nov. 15 to 20.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to travel to Baku at the end of the negotiations, although the exact dates have not yet been confirmed. In addition, the Federal Foreign Office, which is leading the German delegation in Baku due to its responsibility for international climate policy, will be represented by State Secretary Jennifer Morgan from Nov. 11 to 22. Minister Steffi Lemke is expected in Baku on Nov. 21.
State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth from the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, which plays a central role in international climate financing, will be in Baku throughout the conference. However, his Minister Svenja Schulze is not traveling to the COP this year, meaning that only the Greens will be present at ministerial level this year. The Ministry of Agriculture, from which Claudia Müller will be traveling to Baku from Nov. 17 to 20, and the Ministry of Transport, which had announced a trip by Hartmut Höppner from Nov. 18 to 21, are also represented at state secretary level; it was still unclear at the weekend whether this would take place despite the personnel turbulence in the BMDV.
While Germany will therefore be absent from the high-level segment on Nov. 12 and 13, a clear majority of states will be represented there: Around 95 heads of state and government are on the UNFCCC list.
However, Scholz is not alone in his refusal. France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will also be absent from the COP. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had planned to travel to the COP, but canceled the trip after suffering a head injury. Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin is traveling instead. US President Joe Biden will also not be traveling to Azerbaijan. John Podesta, US Special Envoy for Climate Change, is leading the negotiations for the USA.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is also not traveling to Baku due to the ongoing hearings in the European Parliament. Von der Leyen has attended all climate conferences since 2019. The heads of state of the major Asian economies are also not expected in Baku: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unlikely to travel to COP29 and Chinese President Xi Jinping has also not confirmed his attendance. The climate conference overlaps with the G20 summit taking place in Rio de Janeiro on Nov. 18 and 19.
The island state of Papua New Guinea has canceled its participation in the climate conference and will not be sending a delegation at all. Prime Minister James Marape had already declared in August that the COPs were “a total waste of time” and would bring “no results” and announced that his country would not take part in the negotiations in protest “against the big nations”. However, climate activists fear that this will isolate Papua New Guinea and make it even more difficult to gain international support.
Climate activist Greta Thunberg is also staying away in protest – she accuses the UNFCCC of “extreme hypocrisy” for holding the conference in Azerbaijan.
Around 32,000 visitors were registered for the COP at the end of October. That is only around half as many participants as at COP28 in Dubai. Critics had described last year’s COP as bloated; the United Arab Emirates had also invited many company representatives at the time.
A total of 84 declarations and pledges were made by countries and organizations at COP28 in Dubai: from a coalition to abolish fossil subsidies to programs for green hydrogen – the initiatives covered a wide range of areas. The announcements are based on voluntary pledges and are not binding.
The presidency has also already published a list of pledges for the current COP. A review of what has become of the most important promises made last year shows that they have often not been kept.
“80 percent of the initiatives do not go beyond the status quo and the initial announcement“, says Niklas Höhne, co-founder of the New Climate Institute, to Table.Briefings. Towards the end of COP28, his institute, together with Climate Analytics, had already analyzed the pledges made and rated most of them as “unambitious” or “unrealistic“. It also found that there were numerous overlaps with pledges and commitments that had already been made elsewhere. “Initially, the pledges are also primarily joined by countries that are already implementing measures in this area anyway”, adds Höhne.
With a large number of pledges from last year, nothing more has happened, said Isa Mulder from the non-governmental organization Carbon Market Watch (CMW) in an interview with Table.Briefings. Mulder has paid particular attention to the announcements on the carbon market. Her impression is that countries and companies like to make big promises to improve their reputation when there is a lot of international attention at the COP. Afterwards, however, other priorities are set or the initiatives turn out to be not so easy to implement.
The results of many initiatives are rather mixed:
The World Resources Institute (WRI) also analyzed last year that non-binding, international climate alliances can help to pass on knowledge, but rarely lead to actual emission reductions.
A Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action was also prominent at COP28. Not much more was heard about this after the conference. Yet the more than 150 signatory countries wanted to include food systems in their NDCs by 2025. An analysis by the World Resources Institute recently came to the conclusion that nutrition is still too rarely anchored in NDCs. “However, we will only see what comes of this declaration in the coming months”, says Höhne. The countries have until next February to set new climate targets. Some countries already want to publish their new NDCs around COP29. Theoretically, there is enormous potential for savings through the conversion of food systems. However, simply mentioning this in the NDCs is not enough.
One of the most important initiatives from previous years was the Global Methane Pledge from COP26, which aims to reduce methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030. However, even three years after its announcement, there has still been little progress.
Binding resolutions with clear targets, on the other hand, have a greater chance of being implemented: one example of this and one of the most important agreements from last year is the target of tripling renewable energy capacities by 2030 and doubling energy efficiency.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has analyzed where the world stands in this regard. Solar energy in particular is currently being expanded faster than expected and the goal of tripling it by 2030 is “feasible”. However, more power grid connections and battery storage systems need to be installed. However, according to a new IEA report, not enough is happening when it comes to the second part of the promise, the doubling of energy efficiency.
Wopke Hoekstra greeted the members of the three committees on Thursday with a broad smile and expansive voice. The mood in the room seemed relaxed right from the start. The environmental, industrial and economic politicians (ENVI, ITRE, ECON) of the EU Parliament did not put any major obstacles in the way of the designated Climate Commissioner during his hearing.
However, the vote of the coordinators was then somewhat jerky, but this was not due to Hoekstra but to the designated Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos. The EPP wanted to reject Kos after her hearing, whereupon Renew refused to give Hoekstra the green light. In the end, both – Climate Commissioner Hoekstra and Enlargement Commissioner Kos – were accepted. EPP, S&D, Renew, Greens and ECR voted in favor of Hoekstra. The Left, PfE and ESN voted against him.
Even before the hearing, a Green MEP described the general image of the Dutchman: “Everyone loves Hoekstra.” However, this did not stop the MEPs from making some promises to the former Dutch finance and foreign minister. Hoekstra announced the following:
In particular, the future of the automotive industry was the focus of many of the MEPs’ questions. Hoekstra made no secret of the fact that he believes e-fuels are better suited to other industrial sectors than road transport, such as air and sea transport.
Was he planning to suspend fines for car manufacturers that do not comply with their CO2 fleet limits? Although he did not answer yes or no, he recalled 2020 and 2021, when car manufacturers also complained about fines, but in the end only one company paid a negligible amount.
Hoekstra said that he would work together with the industry for better competitiveness, less bureaucracy and a clear path for more investment. With regard to reducing bureaucracy, he announced his intention to work towards simpler rules, for example with regard to reporting obligations. At the same time, he made it clear that he would not shake up the decarbonization targets.
He also expressed support for proposals for the decarbonization of company cars, social leasing offers for EVs and the inclusion of negative emissions in European emissions trading. He also expressed his willingness to encourage member states to use their ETS revenues to mitigate the impact of climate measures on the population.
There are high expectations of the old and new commissioner for international climate negotiations when it comes to the question of how Europe intends to convince the rest of the world to do more to protect the climate. China and the USA in particular must increase their efforts for more climate protection, Hoekstra demanded. This could be achieved with instruments such as CBAM, a little pressure, and climate diplomacy. After all, Europe is only responsible for six percent of global CO2 emissions, and now we need to ensure that the other 94 percent is also tackled.
Green MEP Michael Bloss was not satisfied with the answer. “Hoekstra can no longer hide behind China and the USA.” This applies in particular to the new climate financing target to be negotiated at COP29 in Baku next week. If Europe claims the leadership role, money must also be put on the table, said Bloss. Standing still was no longer an option.
The 29th UN Climate Change Conference starts today in Baku. And anyone who thought COP29 would only be a semi-interesting “implementation COP” is wrong. The political and economic stakes will be high in Baku: The delegations will have to digest the shock from the USA, where Donald Trump is now preparing to inflict serious damage on US and international climate protection for the second time. Germany, one of the driving forces, is coming to Baku weakened after the end of the traffic light coalition. Wars are still raging in Gaza and Ukraine, which could reshape geopolitics. And while the fear of inflation has not been banished in the industrialized countries, many developing countries are suffering from debt burdens, both of which are slowing down the necessary energy transition.
In this highly charged scenario, the UN states are now expected to agree on a highly sensitive issue: Climate finance, which rich countries use to help poor countries cushion climate damage, drive forward the energy transition and make a start on enforcing “climate justice”. No easy task for the ability to compromise and the creativity of climate diplomacy.
Our Climate.Table team is now on-site. Every day for two weeks, we will be reporting in detail on the developments in front of and behind the scenes, providing analysis, news and background information. A COP can be difficult to understand – we are here to assist and inform.
Like every climate conference, COP29 will be a confusing concentration of negotiations, presentations, show dates, declarations and meetings. For observers and negotiators, there is a great risk of losing track of the most important points. The following topics and key issues will play a decisive role both in front of and behind the scenes:
The end of the traffic light coalition also has an impact on Germany’s presence at the COP in Baku: Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz has canceled his planned trip from Nov. 11 to 12 due to the government crisis. Germany will therefore not be present at the Leaders Summit at the start of the COP; because only heads of state and government are allowed to speak there, Scholz cannot be represented.
The highest-ranking German representative will therefore be Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck. According to the ministry, his planned trip from Nov. 17 to 18 will take place as planned. Parliamentary State Secretary Stefan Wenzel from the BMWK will also be on site from Nov. 15 to 20.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to travel to Baku at the end of the negotiations, although the exact dates have not yet been confirmed. In addition, the Federal Foreign Office, which is leading the German delegation in Baku due to its responsibility for international climate policy, will be represented by State Secretary Jennifer Morgan from Nov. 11 to 22. Minister Steffi Lemke is expected in Baku on Nov. 21.
State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth from the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, which plays a central role in international climate financing, will be in Baku throughout the conference. However, his Minister Svenja Schulze is not traveling to the COP this year, meaning that only the Greens will be present at ministerial level this year. The Ministry of Agriculture, from which Claudia Müller will be traveling to Baku from Nov. 17 to 20, and the Ministry of Transport, which had announced a trip by Hartmut Höppner from Nov. 18 to 21, are also represented at state secretary level; it was still unclear at the weekend whether this would take place despite the personnel turbulence in the BMDV.
While Germany will therefore be absent from the high-level segment on Nov. 12 and 13, a clear majority of states will be represented there: Around 95 heads of state and government are on the UNFCCC list.
However, Scholz is not alone in his refusal. France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will also be absent from the COP. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had planned to travel to the COP, but canceled the trip after suffering a head injury. Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin is traveling instead. US President Joe Biden will also not be traveling to Azerbaijan. John Podesta, US Special Envoy for Climate Change, is leading the negotiations for the USA.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is also not traveling to Baku due to the ongoing hearings in the European Parliament. Von der Leyen has attended all climate conferences since 2019. The heads of state of the major Asian economies are also not expected in Baku: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unlikely to travel to COP29 and Chinese President Xi Jinping has also not confirmed his attendance. The climate conference overlaps with the G20 summit taking place in Rio de Janeiro on Nov. 18 and 19.
The island state of Papua New Guinea has canceled its participation in the climate conference and will not be sending a delegation at all. Prime Minister James Marape had already declared in August that the COPs were “a total waste of time” and would bring “no results” and announced that his country would not take part in the negotiations in protest “against the big nations”. However, climate activists fear that this will isolate Papua New Guinea and make it even more difficult to gain international support.
Climate activist Greta Thunberg is also staying away in protest – she accuses the UNFCCC of “extreme hypocrisy” for holding the conference in Azerbaijan.
Around 32,000 visitors were registered for the COP at the end of October. That is only around half as many participants as at COP28 in Dubai. Critics had described last year’s COP as bloated; the United Arab Emirates had also invited many company representatives at the time.
A total of 84 declarations and pledges were made by countries and organizations at COP28 in Dubai: from a coalition to abolish fossil subsidies to programs for green hydrogen – the initiatives covered a wide range of areas. The announcements are based on voluntary pledges and are not binding.
The presidency has also already published a list of pledges for the current COP. A review of what has become of the most important promises made last year shows that they have often not been kept.
“80 percent of the initiatives do not go beyond the status quo and the initial announcement“, says Niklas Höhne, co-founder of the New Climate Institute, to Table.Briefings. Towards the end of COP28, his institute, together with Climate Analytics, had already analyzed the pledges made and rated most of them as “unambitious” or “unrealistic“. It also found that there were numerous overlaps with pledges and commitments that had already been made elsewhere. “Initially, the pledges are also primarily joined by countries that are already implementing measures in this area anyway”, adds Höhne.
With a large number of pledges from last year, nothing more has happened, said Isa Mulder from the non-governmental organization Carbon Market Watch (CMW) in an interview with Table.Briefings. Mulder has paid particular attention to the announcements on the carbon market. Her impression is that countries and companies like to make big promises to improve their reputation when there is a lot of international attention at the COP. Afterwards, however, other priorities are set or the initiatives turn out to be not so easy to implement.
The results of many initiatives are rather mixed:
The World Resources Institute (WRI) also analyzed last year that non-binding, international climate alliances can help to pass on knowledge, but rarely lead to actual emission reductions.
A Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action was also prominent at COP28. Not much more was heard about this after the conference. Yet the more than 150 signatory countries wanted to include food systems in their NDCs by 2025. An analysis by the World Resources Institute recently came to the conclusion that nutrition is still too rarely anchored in NDCs. “However, we will only see what comes of this declaration in the coming months”, says Höhne. The countries have until next February to set new climate targets. Some countries already want to publish their new NDCs around COP29. Theoretically, there is enormous potential for savings through the conversion of food systems. However, simply mentioning this in the NDCs is not enough.
One of the most important initiatives from previous years was the Global Methane Pledge from COP26, which aims to reduce methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030. However, even three years after its announcement, there has still been little progress.
Binding resolutions with clear targets, on the other hand, have a greater chance of being implemented: one example of this and one of the most important agreements from last year is the target of tripling renewable energy capacities by 2030 and doubling energy efficiency.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has analyzed where the world stands in this regard. Solar energy in particular is currently being expanded faster than expected and the goal of tripling it by 2030 is “feasible”. However, more power grid connections and battery storage systems need to be installed. However, according to a new IEA report, not enough is happening when it comes to the second part of the promise, the doubling of energy efficiency.
Wopke Hoekstra greeted the members of the three committees on Thursday with a broad smile and expansive voice. The mood in the room seemed relaxed right from the start. The environmental, industrial and economic politicians (ENVI, ITRE, ECON) of the EU Parliament did not put any major obstacles in the way of the designated Climate Commissioner during his hearing.
However, the vote of the coordinators was then somewhat jerky, but this was not due to Hoekstra but to the designated Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos. The EPP wanted to reject Kos after her hearing, whereupon Renew refused to give Hoekstra the green light. In the end, both – Climate Commissioner Hoekstra and Enlargement Commissioner Kos – were accepted. EPP, S&D, Renew, Greens and ECR voted in favor of Hoekstra. The Left, PfE and ESN voted against him.
Even before the hearing, a Green MEP described the general image of the Dutchman: “Everyone loves Hoekstra.” However, this did not stop the MEPs from making some promises to the former Dutch finance and foreign minister. Hoekstra announced the following:
In particular, the future of the automotive industry was the focus of many of the MEPs’ questions. Hoekstra made no secret of the fact that he believes e-fuels are better suited to other industrial sectors than road transport, such as air and sea transport.
Was he planning to suspend fines for car manufacturers that do not comply with their CO2 fleet limits? Although he did not answer yes or no, he recalled 2020 and 2021, when car manufacturers also complained about fines, but in the end only one company paid a negligible amount.
Hoekstra said that he would work together with the industry for better competitiveness, less bureaucracy and a clear path for more investment. With regard to reducing bureaucracy, he announced his intention to work towards simpler rules, for example with regard to reporting obligations. At the same time, he made it clear that he would not shake up the decarbonization targets.
He also expressed support for proposals for the decarbonization of company cars, social leasing offers for EVs and the inclusion of negative emissions in European emissions trading. He also expressed his willingness to encourage member states to use their ETS revenues to mitigate the impact of climate measures on the population.
There are high expectations of the old and new commissioner for international climate negotiations when it comes to the question of how Europe intends to convince the rest of the world to do more to protect the climate. China and the USA in particular must increase their efforts for more climate protection, Hoekstra demanded. This could be achieved with instruments such as CBAM, a little pressure, and climate diplomacy. After all, Europe is only responsible for six percent of global CO2 emissions, and now we need to ensure that the other 94 percent is also tackled.
Green MEP Michael Bloss was not satisfied with the answer. “Hoekstra can no longer hide behind China and the USA.” This applies in particular to the new climate financing target to be negotiated at COP29 in Baku next week. If Europe claims the leadership role, money must also be put on the table, said Bloss. Standing still was no longer an option.
