Vitrified nuclear waste + Covid origin + More loans for coal power

Dear reader,

At some point, every nation operating nuclear power plants has to ask itself where to dispose of the nuclear waste. Radioactive waste needs to be safely stored for thousands of years. China is one of the few nations that is continuing to develop its nuclear power. With German support, the People’s Republic is developing methods for vitrifying nuclear waste, Frank Sieren details in his report. State media speak of major breakthroughs. The People’s Republic hopes to store nuclear waste safely for 1,000 years. Western researchers, however, remain skeptical.

Investigating the origins of the COVID-19 virus is crucial to stopping the next pandemic in its tracks. The closer science gets to the first infected human, the more likely it is that new pathogens will be discovered early. New data analysis now indicates circumstantial evidence of an earlier COVID-19 outbreak in China. Public institutions in Hubei allegedly ordered PCR tests in large quantities – well before China reported the first Covid-19 infection to the WHO. But experts have their doubts about the new evidence: PCR tests have long been used to identify other pathogens as well, as Marcel Grzanna reports. The question regarding the origin of the pandemic will continue to keep the global community busy – and it remains politically charged.

I hope you enjoy our latest issue!

Your
Nico Beckert

Nuclear power: China’s attempt at permanent glass disposal

By

Frank Sieren

Although China currently operates fewer nuclear power plants than France or the United States, it is already the global leader in the construction of new nuclear power plants. This is also tied to the fact that the People’s Republic wants to become climate-neutral by 2060. For this purpose, 37 reactors have therefore been connected to the Chinese grid in the last ten years alone, with 17 more under construction. The problem is that, like many other countries, China lacks permanent disposal sites for its highly radioactive waste. At present, the radioactive material is merely stored temporarily at reactor sites.

But there is new progress for processing nuclear waste. China recently opened its first radioactive waste vitrification plant. According to state media reports, the plant in Guangyuan in the southwestern province of Sichuan will be able to bind highly radioactive liquid waste in glass form, which will then be suitable for long-term storage and disposal.

In this process, the radioactive elements of spent fuel rods are melted down and sealed with silicate glass at a temperature of at least 1,100 degrees in special containers called HAW casks. The annual disposal volume is expected to reach several hundred cubic meters. The glass produced from the waste will be stored several hundred meters underground. The reliability of this storage type, however, is difficult to predict. In Germany, vitrified waste from reprocessing accounts for 40 percent of highly radioactive nuclear waste.

Technology with certain quirks

Certain elements, such as uranium, can be recycled in reprocessing plants, but this is not possible for spent fuel elements. They must be disposed of safely: A temporary solution is to crush the waste and mix it with water for temporary storage in metal containers. With this method, however, the material remains highly radioactive.

The process of vitrification is safer in the long run because harmful nuclear elements are encased and underground storage possibly poses considerably less risk to the environment, China’s state media cite a local scientist. Another advantage of this method is that fewer harmful elements could escape in the form of gas.

The so-called “vitrification” method is globally considered as the currently most advanced technology for storing radioactive materials. The factory in Guangyuan is partly based on German technology.

However, this technology also has its kinks. Should the casks become damaged or begin to leak due to corrosion, the silicate glass could gradually corrode and possibly release the encased radioactive substances. And the furnace used to vitrify the waste also has to be replaced every five years or so due to erosion. The process becomes particularly complex if the waste does not have a solid, but liquid form. However, Chinese scientists expect to start the construction of a factory with even more advanced technology in 2024.

A study by the British University of Sheffield conducted back in 2014, concluded that this method could potentially “eliminate” around 90 percent of nuclear waste. However, many attempts to make this technology ready for operations have so far failed due to the high technical and financial costs involved. The Chinese, however, have kept at it. Beijing considers nuclear power to be a decisive factor in achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. At least the methods used to test the safety of this process are improving.

Researchers at the University of Bonn advise caution

In 2019, scientists at the University of Bonn developed a new method with which the processes of silicate glass corrosion by water could be observed in detail. Through this, the safety of vitrified nuclear waste can be improved. To do this, the mineralogists and geochemists use what is known as confocal Raman spectroscopy. It focuses a laser on a specific spot, with an accuracy of a few thousandths of a millimeter, to be able to examine every part of the sample. If the sample is transparent, this is possible not only on the surface but also in deeper layers.

“Even though the reaction became very slow, it cannot be ruled out at present that radioactive elements will be released over long periods as a result of this corrosion process,” warns Thorsten Geisler-Wierwille from the Institute of Geosciences and Meteorology at the University of Bonn. However, the glass used for the process of nuclear waste vitrification is far more durable against water than the type examined in the study. In the next step, this specific glass is to be examined. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities assume that their variant is able to last 1,000 years and call the method a “breakthrough” in nuclear waste research.

The first theories to melt liquid radioactive waste directly into glass even date back to the 1960s. Today, most vitrification plants are located in the USA and Europe. The plant in Guangyan was approved by the China Atomic Energy Authority (CAEA) in 2004 and was jointly designed by China and Germany. As early as 1999, a prototype from Germany was delivered to a military facility in Sichuan, which also manufactures nuclear weapons and houses the largest storage facility for radioactive waste in southwest China.

Rumors of early procurement of PCR tests for Wuhan

By

Marcel Grzanna

The People’s Republic of China is about to face new questions about its handling of the Covid outbreak. The reason for this is a significant increase in demand for PCR tests in the province of Hubei in 2019. Half a year before the first reports of Covid-19 infections in the provincial capital Wuhan went public, various public institutions in Hubei had already begun to stock up on large quantities of PCR tests. This is according to data analysis by an Australian cybersecurity company called Internet 2.0.

The analysts based their study on data on public tenders in China. The authors interpret the significant increase as a response to the sudden emergence of a Corona pathogen. For example, statistics show that in May 2019, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) in the province of Hubei procured five times more PCR tests than usual. Incidentally, universities also doubled their orders. This was followed by another notable increase between July and October 2019. The Wuhan University of Science and Technology, among others, saw a great demand during this period, increasing its annual spending on PCR tests eightfold to nearly nine million yuan. The People’s Liberation Army was also among the customers with increased interest in the tests.

“We believe the increased spending in May suggests this as the earliest start date for possible infection,” the report says. The involvement of CCDC or universities in the orders provided “evidence that the increase in purchases is most likely related to the emergence of COVID-19 in Hubei province in 2019.” The authors are confident in their assumption “that the pandemic began much earlier than China notified the World Health Organization about COVID-19.” On January 7, 2020, authorities had publicly identified SARS-CoV-2 for the first time, pinpointing it as the causative agent of COVID-19.

Different reactions

As expected, the report drew mixed reactions. Akira Igata, a visiting professor at the Tama Graduate School of Business in Tokyo who has also seen the data, told Nikkei Asia, “We can’t say for sure with just the public procurement information, but it is strong information for making the case that there was awareness of a virus outbreak around Wuhan several months to half a year before that December.”

Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, on the other hand, told Bloomberg that the increased acquisitions of PCR tests were not surprising. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, PCR tests had become the dominant method for detecting pathogens. Data from the analysis company also shows that there has been a fairly steady increase in demand for PCR tests in Hubei. Even in previous years, demand sometimes doubled compared to the respective previous year. PCR tests are used to detect a variety of pathogens besides COVID-19 and are widely used in modern hospitals and laboratories.

China is plagued by numerous infectious diseases every year, so Wuhan hospitals might have just ordered the testing material to detect other pathogens that were circulating. In fact, there are other good reasons not to take the report as evidence of an early Covid outbreak, but at best as circumstantial:

PCR tests are specific for a pathogen. In order to create such specialized tests, the virus in question must already be known in great detail. For example, the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten was only able to develop the PCR test that is now used worldwide when he successfully broke down the genome of Sars-CoV-2 at his disposal.
It would take a monumental conspiracy involving groups of highly competent scientists to isolate, research and decode the virus and develop their own PCR test.
This secrecy again contradicts the version of procurement through public bidding.
Moreover, the development of such a test would have been a biomedical success that China could have bragged about. Thus, the credit for developing the first PCR detection for Sars-CoV-2 falls to Charité Berlin.
The suppliers of PCR tests, i.e. manufacturers of diagnostic equipment, would have been at least involved to an extent to be able to produce reagents for a new pathogen.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman expressed his doubt over the credibility and competence of the authors. According to Bloomberg, the foreign office spokesman said, “Virus traceability is a serious scientific issue that should be addressed by scientists,” He said China’s State Council Information Office had provided “a clear timeline and iron-clad facts” with the publication of a white paper on Corona control.

The analysts had taken a closer look at data from 2007 to 2019. In total, they analyzed 1,716 procurement contracts. The authors of the data analysis included control samples from other Chinese provinces and cities in their analysis, which should rule out the possibility that increasing demand for PCR testing had also occurred in other parts of the country. The authors only register an increase in Beijing.

Involvement of intelligence services hampers credibility

By limiting the growing demand to the province of Hubei, and its capital Wuhan, the authors seem themselves confirmed in their suspicions of an earlier Covid-19 outbreak. Still, the founders of Internet 2.0 stress that the data does not shed light on where the virus originated. “This report also does not identify a specific time when a pandemic occurred. The fact that China has gone to great lengths to ensure that conclusive evidence is not accessible unfortunately means that we may have to rely on third-party data,” the company founders said in a statement.

However, the staffing of the Australian cybersecurity company also raises questions. The investigation is being conducted by former intelligence officers, the majority of whom come from the US, the UK, and Australia. In other words, from the three countries that recently launched the Aukus military alliance.

Aukus wants to influence the security situation in the Indo-Pacific with its presence to counter Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea. In addition, the Australian government is one of Internet 2.0’s customers.

The fact is, however, that the analysis provides new fuel for those who consider China’s handling of its crisis management to be disingenuous. Beijing is also partly to blame for this, for example, by failing to provide raw data to date that would make it easier for researchers around the world to track down the virus’s origin. If Beijing acted more openly, there would less rumors about the origin of the pathogen.

Next real estate group begins to tilt

After real estate developer Evergrande, another Chinese construction group ran into financial trouble this week. Fantasia Holdings Group Co. failed to repay a $205.7 million bond that was due on Monday. The company made the announcement in a mandatory filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The company explained that it had taken out a bond of $500 million in 2016. However, it said it was currently unable to service the 50 percent repayment now due. Management and the board of directors are currently “assessing the potential impact on the financial position and liquidity of the group”, the company said.

Founded in 1998, Fantasia Holdings is headquartered in the southern Chinese metropolis of Shenzhen. In November 2009, it went public in Hong Kong. Fantasia is operating in many major cities and metropolitan areas in China, including the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Chengdu-Chongqing Metropolitan Area.

In response to the default, the US rating agency Fitch lowered Fantasia’s credit rating by four notches – from B to CCC-. According to Fitch, there is now a significant risk that the company will not be able to make future payments on its international bonds. The rating agency estimates that Fantasia will have to make international bond payments of nearly $2 billion and local market bond payments of nearly $1 billion (¥6.4 billion) by the end of next year.

Fantasia is the second Chinese real estate group after Evergrande to run into financial troubles. Evergrande had accumulated debts of the equivalent of more than $300 billion (China.Table reported). Earlier this week, Evergrande shares were delisted from trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange (China.Table reported). Some analysts now fear a domino effect. Our China.Table correspondent in Beijing has analyzed the crisis and concludes that the impact on the country’s real estate and financial system will remain manageable. There is no risk of a collapse or even a global financial crisis. rad

New credit for coal power

China’s banks are to provide more loans to operators of coal-fired power plants and coal mines, according to an order from China’s banking and insurance regulator. The aim is to overcome the country’s energy crisis and increase the production of coal-fired power plants, as Bloomberg reports.

In the past few days, high coal prices and the shutdown of some power plants caused power shortages in more than 20 Chinese provinces. Many local and international industrial companies as well as some households were affected and had to reduce production. The upcoming winter season will further increase the demand for coal. Since electricity prices are set by the government, many coal-fired power plants do not make a profit when coal prices are high and curtail production as a result.

Under the authority’s order, maturing loans from the coal industry will be extended or renewed and access to credit will not be restricted. In addition, to curb the recent rise in coal prices, financial speculation in commodities has been banned by the authority. nib

Report: Talks planned between China and USA

China and the US want to hold direct talks this week, according to the Hong Kong daily South China Morning Post. According to the report, China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi wants to meet with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan in Switzerland. Wednesday of this week was mentioned as a possible date. The meeting would come about a month after an official phone call between the two presidents, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping.

“It can be seen as a meeting in which the two sides attempt to rebuild communication channels and implement the consensus reached between the two leaders,” the newspaper quotes an unnamed person said to be familiar with the preparations for the meeting. A possible summit between Xi and Biden could also be a topic of discussion.

Earlier this week, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai presented the new US trade strategy for China in Washington (China.Table reported). Tai made it clear that trade barriers between the two countries will not be lifted anytime soon. “We continue to have serious concerns about China’s state-centric and non-market-oriented trade practices,” Tai said in Washington on Monday. Tai said she plans to meet with China’s Vice Premier Liu He in the coming days. rad

Pakistan and China sign billion-dollar project

China and Pakistan have agreed on a €3 billion project to boost development along the Karachi coast. The project includes the expansion of the port, the construction of a fishing port, and the establishment of a 640-hectare trade zone. Likewise, a harbor bridge and affordable housing for 20,000 residents will be built, according to Nikkei Asia. Both Pakistan and China have confirmed the project.

Previous projects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Pakistan progressed only very slowly. Major road infrastructure projects are stalled because the terrain is difficult and corruption is further delaying construction on the Pakistani side (China.Table reported). Beijing has long focused on the development of the port in Gwadar and the construction of a road, rail, and pipeline network from China to Gwadar. However, the delicate security situation in the region – most recently, a suicide attack on a vehicle carrying Chinese nationals killed two children – has reduced the attractiveness of the location. Analysts believe that the implementation of the new billion-dollar project in Karachi will also be difficult. nib

Kevin Gallagher – Expert on development finance for China

Director of the Global Development Policy Center at Boston University

Kevin Gallagher’s analyses often span several continents. During his academic career, the professor of global development policy at Boston University has specialized in Latin America in particular. He was able to intensify his research on the People’s Republic as a visiting professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “Recently, China has established itself as a kind of lender of last resort for countries in the region that have limited access to global financial markets,” says the US-American.

The People’s Republic had already saved the countries in the Caribbean and Latin America (LAC) from the worst effects of the financial crisis of 2008. China’s stimulus package boosted demand for commodities in the region, which nearly doubled between 2009 and 2011. “The trade relationship between China and the LAC is critical to the economic well-being of the region,” says Gallagher.

Today, for example, more than three-quarters of all soybeans are imported from Brazil. “The Corona pandemic has exposed how heavily the LACs depend on China as an export destination for their commodities.”

Development aid at World Bank level

In his research, Gallagher attempts to examine global trade and financial flows using statistical analyses and computational models. Looking at China, he regularly highlights the risks posed by the People’s Republic’s growing relevance in development finance in terms of debt burden, biodiversity, and climate change. For example, new data analysis from his Global Development Policy Center in Boston highlights overseas loans issued by the China Development Bank and Bank of China between 2008 and 2019. In this period, China’s global foreign aid amounted to $462 billion, only second to the World Bank.

Chinese investment could lead to a 2.9 percent increase in global real income by 2030. “But the rise in Chinese development aid raises concerns about a possible debt spiral for recipient countries. Although the investment is spread across the globe, 60 percent of it has gone to just ten countries: Venezuela, Pakistan, Russia, Brazil, Angola, Ecuador, Argentina, Indonesia, Iran, and Turkmenistan. Some of them could have trouble repaying these loans.”

China’s development aid focuses primarily on the construction of infrastructure. Data analysis by Gallagher’s team therefore evaluated projects financed by the People’s Republic for their proximity to ecologically sensitive regions. Of the 615 projects, 124 were located in national environmental protection areas and could have a negative impact on the habitats of endangered species.

Investments with questionable side effects

In many ways, Gallagher’s statements include a “yes, but.” He acknowledges that China has often stepped in as a donor where the wealthy West has retreated. But it is not uncommon for the People’s Republic’s investments to have negative effects. That is why there is a need for action at the international level.

Gallagher’s expertise is in high demand. He has been a member of the United Nations Committee for Development Policy for several years. He was also part of a team of experts for the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED). The team analyzed how to align the Belt and Road Initiative with the United Nations sustainable development goals. Increasing the intersection between Chinese investment and sustainability will continue to be Gallagher’s focus. Constantin Eckner

To melt away – an ice cream in the shape of the Tengwang Pavilion in Nanchang, the capital of East China’s Jiangxi province.

CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Amelie
Richter

Marcel
Grzanna

Fabian
Peltsch

Julia
Fiedler

Angela
Köckritz

Jörn
Petring

Dear reader,

At some point, every nation operating nuclear power plants has to ask itself where to dispose of the nuclear waste. Radioactive waste needs to be safely stored for thousands of years. China is one of the few nations that is continuing to develop its nuclear power. With German support, the People’s Republic is developing methods for vitrifying nuclear waste, Frank Sieren details in his report. State media speak of major breakthroughs. The People’s Republic hopes to store nuclear waste safely for 1,000 years. Western researchers, however, remain skeptical.

Investigating the origins of the COVID-19 virus is crucial to stopping the next pandemic in its tracks. The closer science gets to the first infected human, the more likely it is that new pathogens will be discovered early. New data analysis now indicates circumstantial evidence of an earlier COVID-19 outbreak in China. Public institutions in Hubei allegedly ordered PCR tests in large quantities – well before China reported the first Covid-19 infection to the WHO. But experts have their doubts about the new evidence: PCR tests have long been used to identify other pathogens as well, as Marcel Grzanna reports. The question regarding the origin of the pandemic will continue to keep the global community busy – and it remains politically charged.

I hope you enjoy our latest issue!

Your
Nico Beckert

Nuclear power: China’s attempt at permanent glass disposal

By

Frank Sieren

Although China currently operates fewer nuclear power plants than France or the United States, it is already the global leader in the construction of new nuclear power plants. This is also tied to the fact that the People’s Republic wants to become climate-neutral by 2060. For this purpose, 37 reactors have therefore been connected to the Chinese grid in the last ten years alone, with 17 more under construction. The problem is that, like many other countries, China lacks permanent disposal sites for its highly radioactive waste. At present, the radioactive material is merely stored temporarily at reactor sites.

But there is new progress for processing nuclear waste. China recently opened its first radioactive waste vitrification plant. According to state media reports, the plant in Guangyuan in the southwestern province of Sichuan will be able to bind highly radioactive liquid waste in glass form, which will then be suitable for long-term storage and disposal.

In this process, the radioactive elements of spent fuel rods are melted down and sealed with silicate glass at a temperature of at least 1,100 degrees in special containers called HAW casks. The annual disposal volume is expected to reach several hundred cubic meters. The glass produced from the waste will be stored several hundred meters underground. The reliability of this storage type, however, is difficult to predict. In Germany, vitrified waste from reprocessing accounts for 40 percent of highly radioactive nuclear waste.

Technology with certain quirks

Certain elements, such as uranium, can be recycled in reprocessing plants, but this is not possible for spent fuel elements. They must be disposed of safely: A temporary solution is to crush the waste and mix it with water for temporary storage in metal containers. With this method, however, the material remains highly radioactive.

The process of vitrification is safer in the long run because harmful nuclear elements are encased and underground storage possibly poses considerably less risk to the environment, China’s state media cite a local scientist. Another advantage of this method is that fewer harmful elements could escape in the form of gas.

The so-called “vitrification” method is globally considered as the currently most advanced technology for storing radioactive materials. The factory in Guangyuan is partly based on German technology.

However, this technology also has its kinks. Should the casks become damaged or begin to leak due to corrosion, the silicate glass could gradually corrode and possibly release the encased radioactive substances. And the furnace used to vitrify the waste also has to be replaced every five years or so due to erosion. The process becomes particularly complex if the waste does not have a solid, but liquid form. However, Chinese scientists expect to start the construction of a factory with even more advanced technology in 2024.

A study by the British University of Sheffield conducted back in 2014, concluded that this method could potentially “eliminate” around 90 percent of nuclear waste. However, many attempts to make this technology ready for operations have so far failed due to the high technical and financial costs involved. The Chinese, however, have kept at it. Beijing considers nuclear power to be a decisive factor in achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. At least the methods used to test the safety of this process are improving.

Researchers at the University of Bonn advise caution

In 2019, scientists at the University of Bonn developed a new method with which the processes of silicate glass corrosion by water could be observed in detail. Through this, the safety of vitrified nuclear waste can be improved. To do this, the mineralogists and geochemists use what is known as confocal Raman spectroscopy. It focuses a laser on a specific spot, with an accuracy of a few thousandths of a millimeter, to be able to examine every part of the sample. If the sample is transparent, this is possible not only on the surface but also in deeper layers.

“Even though the reaction became very slow, it cannot be ruled out at present that radioactive elements will be released over long periods as a result of this corrosion process,” warns Thorsten Geisler-Wierwille from the Institute of Geosciences and Meteorology at the University of Bonn. However, the glass used for the process of nuclear waste vitrification is far more durable against water than the type examined in the study. In the next step, this specific glass is to be examined. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities assume that their variant is able to last 1,000 years and call the method a “breakthrough” in nuclear waste research.

The first theories to melt liquid radioactive waste directly into glass even date back to the 1960s. Today, most vitrification plants are located in the USA and Europe. The plant in Guangyan was approved by the China Atomic Energy Authority (CAEA) in 2004 and was jointly designed by China and Germany. As early as 1999, a prototype from Germany was delivered to a military facility in Sichuan, which also manufactures nuclear weapons and houses the largest storage facility for radioactive waste in southwest China.

Rumors of early procurement of PCR tests for Wuhan

By

Marcel Grzanna

The People’s Republic of China is about to face new questions about its handling of the Covid outbreak. The reason for this is a significant increase in demand for PCR tests in the province of Hubei in 2019. Half a year before the first reports of Covid-19 infections in the provincial capital Wuhan went public, various public institutions in Hubei had already begun to stock up on large quantities of PCR tests. This is according to data analysis by an Australian cybersecurity company called Internet 2.0.

The analysts based their study on data on public tenders in China. The authors interpret the significant increase as a response to the sudden emergence of a Corona pathogen. For example, statistics show that in May 2019, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) in the province of Hubei procured five times more PCR tests than usual. Incidentally, universities also doubled their orders. This was followed by another notable increase between July and October 2019. The Wuhan University of Science and Technology, among others, saw a great demand during this period, increasing its annual spending on PCR tests eightfold to nearly nine million yuan. The People’s Liberation Army was also among the customers with increased interest in the tests.

“We believe the increased spending in May suggests this as the earliest start date for possible infection,” the report says. The involvement of CCDC or universities in the orders provided “evidence that the increase in purchases is most likely related to the emergence of COVID-19 in Hubei province in 2019.” The authors are confident in their assumption “that the pandemic began much earlier than China notified the World Health Organization about COVID-19.” On January 7, 2020, authorities had publicly identified SARS-CoV-2 for the first time, pinpointing it as the causative agent of COVID-19.

Different reactions

As expected, the report drew mixed reactions. Akira Igata, a visiting professor at the Tama Graduate School of Business in Tokyo who has also seen the data, told Nikkei Asia, “We can’t say for sure with just the public procurement information, but it is strong information for making the case that there was awareness of a virus outbreak around Wuhan several months to half a year before that December.”

Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, on the other hand, told Bloomberg that the increased acquisitions of PCR tests were not surprising. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, PCR tests had become the dominant method for detecting pathogens. Data from the analysis company also shows that there has been a fairly steady increase in demand for PCR tests in Hubei. Even in previous years, demand sometimes doubled compared to the respective previous year. PCR tests are used to detect a variety of pathogens besides COVID-19 and are widely used in modern hospitals and laboratories.

China is plagued by numerous infectious diseases every year, so Wuhan hospitals might have just ordered the testing material to detect other pathogens that were circulating. In fact, there are other good reasons not to take the report as evidence of an early Covid outbreak, but at best as circumstantial:

PCR tests are specific for a pathogen. In order to create such specialized tests, the virus in question must already be known in great detail. For example, the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten was only able to develop the PCR test that is now used worldwide when he successfully broke down the genome of Sars-CoV-2 at his disposal.
It would take a monumental conspiracy involving groups of highly competent scientists to isolate, research and decode the virus and develop their own PCR test.
This secrecy again contradicts the version of procurement through public bidding.
Moreover, the development of such a test would have been a biomedical success that China could have bragged about. Thus, the credit for developing the first PCR detection for Sars-CoV-2 falls to Charité Berlin.
The suppliers of PCR tests, i.e. manufacturers of diagnostic equipment, would have been at least involved to an extent to be able to produce reagents for a new pathogen.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman expressed his doubt over the credibility and competence of the authors. According to Bloomberg, the foreign office spokesman said, “Virus traceability is a serious scientific issue that should be addressed by scientists,” He said China’s State Council Information Office had provided “a clear timeline and iron-clad facts” with the publication of a white paper on Corona control.

The analysts had taken a closer look at data from 2007 to 2019. In total, they analyzed 1,716 procurement contracts. The authors of the data analysis included control samples from other Chinese provinces and cities in their analysis, which should rule out the possibility that increasing demand for PCR testing had also occurred in other parts of the country. The authors only register an increase in Beijing.

Involvement of intelligence services hampers credibility

By limiting the growing demand to the province of Hubei, and its capital Wuhan, the authors seem themselves confirmed in their suspicions of an earlier Covid-19 outbreak. Still, the founders of Internet 2.0 stress that the data does not shed light on where the virus originated. “This report also does not identify a specific time when a pandemic occurred. The fact that China has gone to great lengths to ensure that conclusive evidence is not accessible unfortunately means that we may have to rely on third-party data,” the company founders said in a statement.

However, the staffing of the Australian cybersecurity company also raises questions. The investigation is being conducted by former intelligence officers, the majority of whom come from the US, the UK, and Australia. In other words, from the three countries that recently launched the Aukus military alliance.

Aukus wants to influence the security situation in the Indo-Pacific with its presence to counter Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea. In addition, the Australian government is one of Internet 2.0’s customers.

The fact is, however, that the analysis provides new fuel for those who consider China’s handling of its crisis management to be disingenuous. Beijing is also partly to blame for this, for example, by failing to provide raw data to date that would make it easier for researchers around the world to track down the virus’s origin. If Beijing acted more openly, there would less rumors about the origin of the pathogen.

Next real estate group begins to tilt

After real estate developer Evergrande, another Chinese construction group ran into financial trouble this week. Fantasia Holdings Group Co. failed to repay a $205.7 million bond that was due on Monday. The company made the announcement in a mandatory filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The company explained that it had taken out a bond of $500 million in 2016. However, it said it was currently unable to service the 50 percent repayment now due. Management and the board of directors are currently “assessing the potential impact on the financial position and liquidity of the group”, the company said.

Founded in 1998, Fantasia Holdings is headquartered in the southern Chinese metropolis of Shenzhen. In November 2009, it went public in Hong Kong. Fantasia is operating in many major cities and metropolitan areas in China, including the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Chengdu-Chongqing Metropolitan Area.

In response to the default, the US rating agency Fitch lowered Fantasia’s credit rating by four notches – from B to CCC-. According to Fitch, there is now a significant risk that the company will not be able to make future payments on its international bonds. The rating agency estimates that Fantasia will have to make international bond payments of nearly $2 billion and local market bond payments of nearly $1 billion (¥6.4 billion) by the end of next year.

Fantasia is the second Chinese real estate group after Evergrande to run into financial troubles. Evergrande had accumulated debts of the equivalent of more than $300 billion (China.Table reported). Earlier this week, Evergrande shares were delisted from trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange (China.Table reported). Some analysts now fear a domino effect. Our China.Table correspondent in Beijing has analyzed the crisis and concludes that the impact on the country’s real estate and financial system will remain manageable. There is no risk of a collapse or even a global financial crisis. rad

New credit for coal power

China’s banks are to provide more loans to operators of coal-fired power plants and coal mines, according to an order from China’s banking and insurance regulator. The aim is to overcome the country’s energy crisis and increase the production of coal-fired power plants, as Bloomberg reports.

In the past few days, high coal prices and the shutdown of some power plants caused power shortages in more than 20 Chinese provinces. Many local and international industrial companies as well as some households were affected and had to reduce production. The upcoming winter season will further increase the demand for coal. Since electricity prices are set by the government, many coal-fired power plants do not make a profit when coal prices are high and curtail production as a result.

Under the authority’s order, maturing loans from the coal industry will be extended or renewed and access to credit will not be restricted. In addition, to curb the recent rise in coal prices, financial speculation in commodities has been banned by the authority. nib

Report: Talks planned between China and USA

China and the US want to hold direct talks this week, according to the Hong Kong daily South China Morning Post. According to the report, China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi wants to meet with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan in Switzerland. Wednesday of this week was mentioned as a possible date. The meeting would come about a month after an official phone call between the two presidents, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping.

“It can be seen as a meeting in which the two sides attempt to rebuild communication channels and implement the consensus reached between the two leaders,” the newspaper quotes an unnamed person said to be familiar with the preparations for the meeting. A possible summit between Xi and Biden could also be a topic of discussion.

Earlier this week, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai presented the new US trade strategy for China in Washington (China.Table reported). Tai made it clear that trade barriers between the two countries will not be lifted anytime soon. “We continue to have serious concerns about China’s state-centric and non-market-oriented trade practices,” Tai said in Washington on Monday. Tai said she plans to meet with China’s Vice Premier Liu He in the coming days. rad

Pakistan and China sign billion-dollar project

China and Pakistan have agreed on a €3 billion project to boost development along the Karachi coast. The project includes the expansion of the port, the construction of a fishing port, and the establishment of a 640-hectare trade zone. Likewise, a harbor bridge and affordable housing for 20,000 residents will be built, according to Nikkei Asia. Both Pakistan and China have confirmed the project.

Previous projects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Pakistan progressed only very slowly. Major road infrastructure projects are stalled because the terrain is difficult and corruption is further delaying construction on the Pakistani side (China.Table reported). Beijing has long focused on the development of the port in Gwadar and the construction of a road, rail, and pipeline network from China to Gwadar. However, the delicate security situation in the region – most recently, a suicide attack on a vehicle carrying Chinese nationals killed two children – has reduced the attractiveness of the location. Analysts believe that the implementation of the new billion-dollar project in Karachi will also be difficult. nib

Kevin Gallagher – Expert on development finance for China

Kevin Gallagher’s analyses often span several continents. During his academic career, the professor of global development policy at Boston University has specialized in Latin America in particular. He was able to intensify his research on the People’s Republic as a visiting professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “Recently, China has established itself as a kind of lender of last resort for countries in the region that have limited access to global financial markets,” says the US-American.

The People’s Republic had already saved the countries in the Caribbean and Latin America (LAC) from the worst effects of the financial crisis of 2008. China’s stimulus package boosted demand for commodities in the region, which nearly doubled between 2009 and 2011. “The trade relationship between China and the LAC is critical to the economic well-being of the region,” says Gallagher.

Today, for example, more than three-quarters of all soybeans are imported from Brazil. “The Corona pandemic has exposed how heavily the LACs depend on China as an export destination for their commodities.”

Development aid at World Bank level

In his research, Gallagher attempts to examine global trade and financial flows using statistical analyses and computational models. Looking at China, he regularly highlights the risks posed by the People’s Republic’s growing relevance in development finance in terms of debt burden, biodiversity, and climate change. For example, new data analysis from his Global Development Policy Center in Boston highlights overseas loans issued by the China Development Bank and Bank of China between 2008 and 2019. In this period, China’s global foreign aid amounted to $462 billion, only second to the World Bank.

Chinese investment could lead to a 2.9 percent increase in global real income by 2030. “But the rise in Chinese development aid raises concerns about a possible debt spiral for recipient countries. Although the investment is spread across the globe, 60 percent of it has gone to just ten countries: Venezuela, Pakistan, Russia, Brazil, Angola, Ecuador, Argentina, Indonesia, Iran, and Turkmenistan. Some of them could have trouble repaying these loans.”

China’s development aid focuses primarily on the construction of infrastructure. Data analysis by Gallagher’s team therefore evaluated projects financed by the People’s Republic for their proximity to ecologically sensitive regions. Of the 615 projects, 124 were located in national environmental protection areas and could have a negative impact on the habitats of endangered species.

Investments with questionable side effects

In many ways, Gallagher’s statements include a “yes, but.” He acknowledges that China has often stepped in as a donor where the wealthy West has retreated. But it is not uncommon for the People’s Republic’s investments to have negative effects. That is why there is a need for action at the international level.

Gallagher’s expertise is in high demand. He has been a member of the United Nations Committee for Development Policy for several years. He was also part of a team of experts for the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED). The team analyzed how to align the Belt and Road Initiative with the United Nations sustainable development goals. Increasing the intersection between Chinese investment and sustainability will continue to be Gallagher’s focus. Constantin Eckner

To melt away – an ice cream in the shape of the Tengwang Pavilion in Nanchang, the capital of East China’s Jiangxi province.

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Different reactions

Involvement of intelligence services hampers credibility

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Next real estate group begins to tilt

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Pakistan and China sign billion-dollar project

AsiaBerlin Summit 2021

Profile

Kevin Gallagher – Expert on development finance for China

Development aid at World Bank level

Investments with questionable side effects

Personnel

Dessert

China.Table Editors

CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Feature

Nuclear power: China’s attempt at permanent glass disposal

Technology with certain quirks

Researchers at the University of Bonn advise caution

Rumors of early procurement of PCR tests for Wuhan

Different reactions

Involvement of intelligence services hampers credibility

News

Next real estate group begins to tilt

New credit for coal power

Report: Talks planned between China and USA

Pakistan and China sign billion-dollar project

AsiaBerlin Summit 2021

Profile

Kevin Gallagher – Expert on development finance for China

Development aid at World Bank level

Investments with questionable side effects

Personnel

Dessert

China.Table Editors

CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

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