Wuhan Patients and Long Covid + RCEP brings China free trade
Wuhan study on long-term effects of Long Covid
RCEP ties China into regional free trade for first time
Putin and Xi expand friendship
Scholz cautious with China criticism
Lithuania recalls diplomats
German Frigate sails into South China Sea
Tools: new rules for childcare leave
Dear reader,
The dangers of Long Covid are one of the main reasons to fight the pandemic by any means necessary. The long-term effects of the infection could turn it into a mass disease. On an individual level, those affected suffer greatly. This also leads to a weakening of society and the economy.
Chinese scientists have now taken stock of how the long-term effects of COVID-19 have developed over the last months. The results are alarming. Some of the first wave infected in the province of Hubei are still suffering from a multitude of symptoms. Frank Sieren presents the Chinese study, that shows just how serious the chronic effects of Covid are.
Until now, there has been no free trading agreement between China, Japan, and South Korea. This will change as of January. The economic agreement RCEP was originally intended to bind the Southeast Asian states more closely to their trading partners. But it is proving to be even more valuable between the northern partners, observes Christiane Kuehl. This makes China for the first time part of a regional free trade platform. RCEP is a small miracle anyway, believes Kuehl. It brings economically successful countries like South Korea under one roof with small, bitterly poor states like Laos. The framework is even flexible enough to bring the jealous rivals China and Japan together.
About a half of the first COVID-19 patients from Wuhan, China, are still suffering from symptoms of the disease more than a year after infection. This is the result of a study published in the medical journal The Lancet. The eleven-million metropolis in the Chinese province of Hubei is where the first cases of COVID-19 were registered in late 2019. The city is considered the epicenter of the outbreak, with more than 50,000 reported cases and a month-long, harsh lockdown that saw residents cut off from the outside world for 76 days. It is the first and most comprehensive investigation of its kind, as Wuhan was hit first.
The study, conducted by a team of researchers from Beijing Capital Medical University, draws several startling conclusions:
20 percent of patients were still suffering from fatigue and muscle fatigue 12 months later.
The risk for women was 1.4 times higher than that of men.
17 percent of those observed reported sleep disorders.
11 percent observed hair loss.
In 20 to 30 percent of patients, complications in the transfer of oxygen into the bloodstream could still be observed.
In particular, people who underwent artificial ventilation during their hospital stay still frequently experienced shortness of breath and dyspnea after one year.
Long Covid does prove to be a long-term condition in many cases, according to the study. “Our data suggest that a full recovery after 1 year is not possible for some patients, for whom it will take longer to attain their baseline health state before COVID-19,” the authors explain. The study observed 1,276 people discharged from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital between January and May 2020. The authors describe the study as “the largest longitudinal cohort study of hospital survivors with COVID-19”. The average age of patients was 59. They underwent pulmonary function tests, computed tomography scans of the chest area, and endurance and blood tests at 6- and 12-month intervals.
Many patients develop psychological problems
However, the fact that the study only examines hospital patients with severe courses of the disease and does not include later virus variants such as Delta limits its scope and significance. The results are, however, in line with other studies that shed light on the long-term effects of COVID-19. At the same time, it is still not clear why many Covid patients do not fully recover weeks and months after their initial infection. The list of possible symptoms – one study identifies more than 200 – can affect the entire body, making it clear that COVID-19 is more than just a respiratory illness, as the authors point out.
It is also striking that psychological problems, such as anxiety and depression, do not subside after one year, but occur slightly more frequently after six months, writes co-author Gu Xiaoying of the Institute of Clinical Medical Sciences at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital. “This could be driven by a direct effect of virus infection and might be explained by several hypotheses including aberrant immune response,” Gu writes. “Additionally, indirect effects including reduced social contact, loneliness, incomplete recovery of physical health, and loss of employment could affect psychiatric symptoms.”
Only 0.4 percent of patients in Wuhan participated in a professional rehabilitation program. Still, 88 percent of those who had employment before the infection were able to return to work after one year. Still, the impact on society due to the increased health burden and economic productivity losses is significant, the authors write. “SARS-CoV-2 remains a public health emergency of international concern,” says the introduction in The Lancet, one of the world’s oldest and most prestigious medical journals.
Delta also on the rise in China
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), more than 271 million people have been infected with the coronavirus since the beginning of the pandemic. The UN health agency issues a post-COVID case report form in February, which enables medical professionals around the globe to access standardized data pools. “This will help improve understanding, surveillance, and clinical management of the disease,” said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. The WHO estimates that Long Covid still affects about one in ten infected individuals. Among them are many young people with no previous illnesses, a phenomenon that has also not yet been fully examined.
In the meantime, the Delta variant has also become dominant in China. Although official numbers only speak of a few hundred cases, Beijing continues to pursue its zero-covid strategy – including in Wuhan: At the beginning of August 2021, mass testing was mandated for the entire population of eleven million residents, following the outbreak of three infections among migrant workers. And in May, health authorities in the southern Chinese tech metropolis of Shenzhen temporarily closed the Yantian International Container Terminal. A good ten percent of Chinese exports are normally loaded there.
So far, the measures have done little to harm the Chinese economy. In the first half of the year, the world’s second-largest economy grew by 12.7 percent. For 2021 as a whole, the World Bank forecasts growth of over eight percent, while the global economy is only growing at 5.6 percent. The Chinese government, on the other hand, has set a target of “over six percent” for the entire year. However, the World Bank sees growth of only 5.4 percent next year. This is likely to melt the buffer to withstand further lockdown measures. Meanwhile, resentment over the strict lockdown policy is not only growing internationally but also within China’s economy. At the same time, the significant impact on health caused by Long Covid supports the continuation of the Covid restrictions.
Health
Wuhan
RCEP: launch of the world’s largest free trade area
It will be the world’s largest free-trade region to date outside the World Trade Organization (WTO): The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) of the Southeast Asian confederation ASEAN together with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. Since a set minimum number of member states had ratified the RCEP treaty by mid-November, it is clear that the agreement will come into force on January 1, 2022. The RCEP, with its 15 members, will be China’s first-ever regional trade agreement. It is a huge economic area that will each encompass around 30 percent of global economic output, global trade volume, and global population.
The RCEP brings together states with different political systems and stages of development. China is also repeatedly in conflict with states throughout the region: With its old rival Japan, as well as, most recently, with Australia. Added to this is Beijing’s brash behavior in the South China Sea. The fact that all these states have nevertheless signed such a far-reaching agreement with China is astonishing. Only India pulled out of the negotiations in 2019 for various reasons.
At its core, RCEP is intended to integrate the individual bilateral trade agreements between the ten ASEAN states and their five most important trading partners (the so-called ASEAN+1 FTAS) into a joint agreement. Over 80 percent of the trade liberalized by RCEP is already covered by such bilateral agreements. The Asean+1 Free Trade Agreement with China (CAFTA), for example, has already eliminated tariffs on 7,000 products.
The RCEP now sees that customs duties will gradually disappear on around 90 percent of the goods traded between all members. Procedures for import licenses, customs declarations, customs procedures, and other checks will be simplified. The RCEP treaty also standardizes rules for investment, intellectual property, and e-commerce, for example. RCEP also provides for the facilitation of trade in services.
The level of duty depends on product origin
The RCEP Rules of Origin define whether traded goods are eligible for RCEP tariff reductions and other benefits. In principle, the entire supply chain of a product must be located in the territory of the 15 RCEP countries: raw materials, preliminary products, manufacturing, and customer sales.
This does not necessarily make the trade architecture in the region less complex. The existing bilateral trade agreements will remain valid in parallel. Whether a company would rather rely on RCEP or an existing trade agreement for favorable trade conditions will depend on its business model, explains an RCEP brochure for companies in Singapore. Those who only buy from a single country and do not produce for export can decide whether the existing agreement with that country is sufficient. But those who buy inputs from several RCEP countries would be better served by the new trading region.
The origin of all input products must be precisely documented to benefit from the agreement. International companies with supply chains in the RCEP member states can also benefit from the regional harmonization of the Rules of Origin and improved trade processing, concludes China.Table cooperation partner Sinolytics.
Major benefits for China, Japan and South Korea
Ultimately, bilateral trade between ASEAN and a single partner state may not change that much. But RCEP offers great opportunities between these five partners. China, Japan, and South Korea, for example, have no trade agreements with each other so far – either tripartite or bilateral. “China is the largest trading partner for Japan and South Korea, and both nations are among China’s top five trading partners,” writes Niels Graham of the Atlantic Council’s Geoeconomics Center. Yet, they impose tariffs under the most-favored-nation (MFN) standard set by the WTO. “RCEP changes this. As a part of the agreement, China will eventually reduce tariffs to zero on 86% of Japanese goods,” Graham said.
So far, China imposed no tariffs on only eight percent of Japanese imports. Conversely, Japan would have to cut tariffs to zero on 88 percent of Chinese goods, compared to a current tariff level of about 60 percent. “Ultimately, China, Japan, and South Korea may gain far more from this agreement than ASEAN through the new linkages encouraged by RCEP’s tariff reductions,” Graham concludes. For political reasons, it was probably much easier for the three countries to agree on such liberalizations within the framework of RCEP than through direct negotiations. Japan and South Korea, for example, have been negotiating a free trade agreement for many years without ever reaching a consensus.
China is considered one of the biggest drivers and beneficiaries of the new free trade region. RCEP helps the People’s Republic to regionalize its trade flows more strongly. This makes the country less dependent on global supply chains, which can increasingly become a pawn in geopolitical conflicts. China’s high-tech sector, for example, suffers greatly from US export restrictions on certain products. Meanwhile, fair competition, subsidy reduction, or higher environmental and labor standards do not have a high priority in the RCEP, according to Sinolytics. Nor is the role of state-owned enterprises a focus. China’s bilateral trade agreements with industrialized countries are usually stricter in these regards.
China will meet all its commitments when the RCEP comes into force, the Ministry of Commerce announced in November. This includes around 700 individual items such as tariff cuts and changes to its own rules of origin. It is also said, that China would be preparing corresponding guidelines for local governments.
RCEP: expectations of EU companies in China
Most European companies either in China did notexpect any changes from RCEP or thought it was too early to make a final assessment, according to a survey conducted by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China over the summer. Only 3 percent expected a negative impact on their business, while 23 percent expected a positive impact. RCEP was designed to “encourage companies to embed their China operations in a broader regional strategy,” the Chamber wrote at the time. Some companies in the survey certainly saw that as an opportunity. But EU firms also have to expect that more and more Chinese companies will move their production to Southeast Asia, the chamber warned – with logistical or administrative implications for their supply chains.
Of those member companies that expect positive effects from RCEP, 67 percent expect sales to increase due to more exports from China to other RCEP countries. As many as 32 percent said they would rethink their regional supply chains to export more from China to RCEP countries. 39 percent expected to reduce costs through cheaper imports or diversification of their supply chains. So the overall picture is neutral to positive.
Next stop: CPTPP
RCEP is also just the beginning for China. In September, Beijing applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). This agreement is the successor to the TPP free trade project, from which former US President Barack Obama had deliberately wanted to keep China out. But Obama’s successor Donald Trump turned his back on TPP. The remaining countries went ahead without the US. Current President Joe Biden also shows no interest in CPTPP.
Now, ironically, China wants to join instead of the US (China.Table reported). But the standards are much higher than those of the RCEP. All eleven member states, which also include countries like Chile or Canada, must agree to China’s accession. Taiwan also applied for membership – a week after China. The negotiations are likely to be complicated, to say the least. RCEP, on the other hand, is ready to go.
ASEAN
CPTPP
Japan
RCEP
Trade
Zölle
News
Russia and China extend friendship
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has won China’s support for his demand for binding security agreements from the West. China’s President Xi Jinping assured Putin of this in a video conference, a representative of the presidential office in Moscow announced on Wednesday. Earlier, Putin had briefed Xi on his recent conversation with US President Joe Biden. Xi had assured Putin that he understood the latter’s concerns and supported the Russian initiative. Xi himself, according to Chinese state media, said both countries should safeguard each other’s security interests. He told Putin that currently “certain international forces” were interfering in the internal affairs of China and Russia under the guise of democracy. These forces were trampling on international law and accepted norms of international relations.
Russia wants a guarantee from the US and NATO that the Western military alliance will not expand further eastwards or station certain weapons systems in Ukraine and other countries bordering Russia. On Wednesday, Russia handed over specific proposals for binding security guarantees to US Deputy Secretary of State Karen Donfried in Moscow. Donfried had flown to Moscow amid rising tensions between East and West over the Ukraine crisis.
However, the security guarantees were not discussed in Chinese state media before China.Table’s editorial deadline. According to the state-affiliated China Daily, Putin will attend the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. Xi said he was looking forward to the visit and wanted to work with Putin “for a shared future”. After the end of the Covid pandemic, a new chapter in the relations between the two countries is set to begin.rtr/nib
Geopolitics
Russia
Vladimir Putin
Xi Jinping
Scholz wants to treat China ‘fairly’ and ‘critically’
“Fair” and “critical” – this is how the newly elected German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) outlines his idea of a new China policy. A country of China’s size and history has a central place in the international concert of nations, Scholz explained in his first government statement in the German Bundestag. “That’s why we offer China cooperation on humanity’s challenges such as the climate crisis, pandemics, or arms control.” Scholz went on to say, “We offer China fair economic competition for mutual benefit with a level playing field for all.”
At the same time, Scholz pointed to differences, particularly on human rights issues. “We must align our China policy with the China we find in reality,” he said, “but that also means that we do not close our eyes to the critical human rights situation and call violations of universal norms by name.”
CDU opposition leader Ralph Brinkhaus called for a China strategy that also keeps Germany’s economic interests in mind. “A values-led foreign policy is important, human rights are important,” Brinkhaus stressed. “But you also have the function of representing our economic interests,” the CDU politician said, addressing the Greens and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. “China is a greater challenge for our middle class, for our economy, for our prosperity than all the tax and social laws that we get wrong and right together,” said the chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag.
Green Party foreign policy expert Juergen Trittin had pleaded during an interview with Deutschlandfunk radio this morning, that no member of the German government should travel to China for the Winter Olympics because of China’s ongoing human rights violations. Even if Trittin did not explicitly say so, Germany would thereby join the diplomatic boycott of the Olympics by the USA and other countries. At the same time, however, Trittin emphasized that Germany should find a common position with other EU states. Holding Europe together on this issue would be the first test for the claim of German foreign policy to formulate a European policy, the Green politician said. flee
Ampel-Koalition
Boycott
Geopolitics
Germany
Olaf Scholz
Olympia
Lithuania recalls diplomats
Lithuania has recalled its remaining diplomats from China over security concerns. Audra Čiapienė, Lithuania’s interim chargé d’affaires in China, returned to Vilnius on Wednesday for consultations, the Financial Times (FT) reported. She had been the EU state’s top diplomat in Beijing following the recall of Lithuania’s ambassador in August. All other officials had also left for their home countries. The embassy will temporarily continue its work remotely, the foreign ministry in Vilnius said, according to the report. Previously, there had been concerns about the diplomatic immunity of Lithuanian representatives in China.
The Chinese government had asked the remaining diplomats from the Baltic EU country in Beijing to hand over their diplomatic cards to the foreign ministry for the downgrade of their diplomatic status, FT reported, citing three sources. Vilnius was therefore concerned that the officials could lose their status and their security could be compromised if they remained in the People’s Republic. China had downgraded diplomatic relations with Lithuania to the lowest level in November (China.Table reported). The trade dispute between Lithuania and China continues. The People’s Republic has now blocked imports of Lithuanian goods for the past two weeks (China Table reported).
Meanwhile, French MPs showed solidarity with Taiwan. A six-member delegation of elected representatives arrived in Taipei on Wednesday. François de Rugy, the head of the Taiwan group in the French National Assembly, is leading the delegation. The deputies will also meet President Tsai Ing-wen. There was already a similar visit in October. ari
Geopolitics
Lithuania
Trade
German Frigate enters South China Sea
A ship of the German Navy currently in Asia’s waters is reaching a crucial part of its mission: The frigate Bayern entered the South China Sea on Wednesday. The ship’s presence there is primarily symbolic. The frigate is expressly adhering to the usual routes open to traffic, according to the Ministry of Defense. The Bayern embarked back in July on the orders of thenDefense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) to show solidarity with Germany’s allies in the region and send a signal against China’s ambition for supremacy (China.Table reported).
Childcare leave (or parental leave) refers to a period of paid or unpaid leave granted to employees for the care and/or support of their children under a certain age. Although this welfare policy has existed in many other countries for years, childcare leave is very new in China and was only introduced recently as part of an effort to address the growing demographic imbalance and boost childbirth
In this article, we offer an overview of the establishment of childcare leave policy in China, summarize its recent developments in China’s different regions, and explain how childcare leave will be implemented in practice.
The establishment of childcare leave in China
On May 9, 2019, the State Council issued the Guidelines on Improving Care Services for Infants and Children Under Three Years Old, encouraging local governments to pilot childcare leave within their jurisdictions. This is designed to provide more support to home-based childcare services.
In the period following, multiple regions began exploring the implementation of childcare leave, including Xianing City in Hubei Province, Dalian City in Liaoning Province, and the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and Ningxia. At that time, however, employers were only encouraged to grant employees childcare leave until the child reached a certain age, and were not obliged to do so.
Then China announced the three-child policy in May 2021 and updated its Population and Family Planning Law in August 2021. The latter stipulates that the state supports the establishment of childcare leave where conditions permit. This is understood as a stronger and higher-level indicator of China’s determination to improve its childcare system and implement childcare leave policy.
In the following months, this suggestion was translated into concrete local policies, as more and more provinces amended their population and family planning regulations and stipulated that both parents who lawfully have a child are entitled to a certain amount of paid childcare leave per year until their child reaches a certain age. That is to say, in these regions, paid childcare leave has become a lawful right of employees, which must be granted if certain criteria are met.
It is important to note, however, not all provinces have made childcare leave a mandatory policy. Jiangsu and Jilin have amended their population and family planning regulation, but Jiangsu’s regulation only stipulates that the implementation of the childcare leave system will be promoted and the specific implementation measures will be formulated by the provincial people’s government. Jilin’s regulation, meanwhile, only has an ‘encouragement clause’: it supports the establishment of childcare leave in regions where conditions allow.
How long is childcare leave in China?
Similar to many other child-related leaves, childcare leave is managed by local governments. To know how long childcare leave is in China, we must take a closer look at the corresponding regulations in each province.
As of December 2, 2021, 20 provinces have amended their population and family planning regulations, among which 18 provinces stipulated the length of childcare leave.
Beijing and Shanghai both stipulate that each couple can enjoy five days’ childcare leave each year until their child reaches three years. Beijing further stated that the total amount of childcare leaves a couple can take each year is no more than 10 working days.
Anhui and Chongqing raised the maximum age limit of children for childcare leave to six. According to Anhui’s population and family planning regulation, each parent will be given 10 days of childcare leave each year until their child is six years old. Chongqing’s arrangement is more flexible, allowing one of two options:
After the maternity leave or paternity leave expires, subject to the approval of the employer, either parent can take childcare leave until the child reaches one year; or
Both parents can take five to 10 days of childcare leave each year until the child reaches six years.
In other provinces, the revised family planning regulations have not yet been adopted, but some provinces have published revised drafts of their local population and family planning regulations to solicit public opinions. Among them, Shaanxi plans to stipulate that each parent has no less than 30 days of childcare leave each year until their child reaches three years. Hainan plans to set up two options for childcare leave: employers are encouraged to give 10 days’ childcare leave to each parent per year until their child reaches three years, or to give one hour of childcare leave to either parent every day until the child reaches three years.
Childcare leave in relevant provinces
Anhui 10 days/year for each parent until the child reaches 6 (Jan. 1, 2022)
Beijing 5 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (Nov. 26, 2021)
Chongqing 5-10 days/year for each parent until the child reaches 6 or one parent takes childcare leave until the child reaches 1 after the maternity leave or paternity leave expires (subject to the approval of the employer) (November 25, 2021)
Gansu 15 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (Nov. 26, 2021)
Guangdong 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (December 1, 2021)
Guizhou 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Oct. 1, 2021)
Hebei 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Nov. 23, 2021)
Heilongjiang 10 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (Nov. 1, 2021)
Henan 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (November 27, 2021)
Hubei 10 days/year for each parent until the child reaches age 3 (Nov. 26, 2021)
Jiangxi 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (September 29, 2021)
Ningxia 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Nov. 30, 2021)
Qinghai 15 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Nov. 26, 2021)
Shanghai 5 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (Nov. 25, 2021)
Shanxi 15 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Sept. 29, 2021)
Sichuan 10 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (Sept. 29, 2021)
Tianjin 10 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (Nov. 29, 2021)
Zhejiang 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Nov. 25, 2021)
Liaoning 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Nov. 26, 2021)
Hainan 11 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (draft)
Shaanxi 30 days/year for each parent until the child reaches 3 or 1 hour/day for either parent until the child reaches 1 (draft)
Shandong 10 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (draft)
How will childcare leave be implemented in practice?
Childcare leave has been established, but details on how it will be implemented are yet to be clarified in most provinces.
Beijing and Shanghai have made it clear that annual childcare leave is not calculated in calendar years, but in “anniversaries”. For example, if the child was born on December 19, 2021, December 18, 2022 will be the ‘anniversary’ marking the end of the year in which each parent is entitled to five days of childcare leave.
Shanghai further clarified that childcare leave days are calculated according to the number of children the employee has. If the employee has two children who are both under three years, then they will be entitled to 10 days of childcare leave for the year. Moreover, Shanghai makes it clear that the childcare leave should be used in the current year, and can be taken over consecutively or on separate days and also stipulates that wages during childcare leave shall be paid in accordance with the normal attendance wages.
If companies operate in provinces where childcare leave has been established, they are advised to keep a close eye on the further policy developments and to start considering amendments to their employee handbook to adapt to this new statutory leave.
This article first appeared in Asia Briefing, published by Dezan Shira Associates. The firm advises international investors in Asia and has offices in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Singapore, Russia, and Vietnam.
Children
Demographics
Drei-Kind-Politik
Society
Executive Moves
Caroline So has been appointed Head of the Shanghai studio of the marketing agency Holmes & Marchant. From there, she will be responsible for the company’s activities throughout China.
Daniel Cao and Sharon Tan join the institutional sales team of French insurer Axa’s wealth management subsidiary in Hong Kong and Singapore respectively.
Dessert
Emperor Han Wendi ascended the throne in 180 BC at the age of 23 and then ruled for 23 years. The Han Empire was already flourishing at the time, while Rome was just beginning its expansion into northern Italy and Spain. A major discovery near Xi’an, the former capital of Chang’an, now tells us more about the Han Wendi period. Among other things, mountains of ceramic figurines were found in a recently uncovered mausoleum. They were part of a symbolic court that followed a dignitary into the grave. fin
RCEP ties China into regional free trade for first time
Putin and Xi expand friendship
Scholz cautious with China criticism
Lithuania recalls diplomats
German Frigate sails into South China Sea
Tools: new rules for childcare leave
Dear reader,
The dangers of Long Covid are one of the main reasons to fight the pandemic by any means necessary. The long-term effects of the infection could turn it into a mass disease. On an individual level, those affected suffer greatly. This also leads to a weakening of society and the economy.
Chinese scientists have now taken stock of how the long-term effects of COVID-19 have developed over the last months. The results are alarming. Some of the first wave infected in the province of Hubei are still suffering from a multitude of symptoms. Frank Sieren presents the Chinese study, that shows just how serious the chronic effects of Covid are.
Until now, there has been no free trading agreement between China, Japan, and South Korea. This will change as of January. The economic agreement RCEP was originally intended to bind the Southeast Asian states more closely to their trading partners. But it is proving to be even more valuable between the northern partners, observes Christiane Kuehl. This makes China for the first time part of a regional free trade platform. RCEP is a small miracle anyway, believes Kuehl. It brings economically successful countries like South Korea under one roof with small, bitterly poor states like Laos. The framework is even flexible enough to bring the jealous rivals China and Japan together.
About a half of the first COVID-19 patients from Wuhan, China, are still suffering from symptoms of the disease more than a year after infection. This is the result of a study published in the medical journal The Lancet. The eleven-million metropolis in the Chinese province of Hubei is where the first cases of COVID-19 were registered in late 2019. The city is considered the epicenter of the outbreak, with more than 50,000 reported cases and a month-long, harsh lockdown that saw residents cut off from the outside world for 76 days. It is the first and most comprehensive investigation of its kind, as Wuhan was hit first.
The study, conducted by a team of researchers from Beijing Capital Medical University, draws several startling conclusions:
20 percent of patients were still suffering from fatigue and muscle fatigue 12 months later.
The risk for women was 1.4 times higher than that of men.
17 percent of those observed reported sleep disorders.
11 percent observed hair loss.
In 20 to 30 percent of patients, complications in the transfer of oxygen into the bloodstream could still be observed.
In particular, people who underwent artificial ventilation during their hospital stay still frequently experienced shortness of breath and dyspnea after one year.
Long Covid does prove to be a long-term condition in many cases, according to the study. “Our data suggest that a full recovery after 1 year is not possible for some patients, for whom it will take longer to attain their baseline health state before COVID-19,” the authors explain. The study observed 1,276 people discharged from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital between January and May 2020. The authors describe the study as “the largest longitudinal cohort study of hospital survivors with COVID-19”. The average age of patients was 59. They underwent pulmonary function tests, computed tomography scans of the chest area, and endurance and blood tests at 6- and 12-month intervals.
Many patients develop psychological problems
However, the fact that the study only examines hospital patients with severe courses of the disease and does not include later virus variants such as Delta limits its scope and significance. The results are, however, in line with other studies that shed light on the long-term effects of COVID-19. At the same time, it is still not clear why many Covid patients do not fully recover weeks and months after their initial infection. The list of possible symptoms – one study identifies more than 200 – can affect the entire body, making it clear that COVID-19 is more than just a respiratory illness, as the authors point out.
It is also striking that psychological problems, such as anxiety and depression, do not subside after one year, but occur slightly more frequently after six months, writes co-author Gu Xiaoying of the Institute of Clinical Medical Sciences at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital. “This could be driven by a direct effect of virus infection and might be explained by several hypotheses including aberrant immune response,” Gu writes. “Additionally, indirect effects including reduced social contact, loneliness, incomplete recovery of physical health, and loss of employment could affect psychiatric symptoms.”
Only 0.4 percent of patients in Wuhan participated in a professional rehabilitation program. Still, 88 percent of those who had employment before the infection were able to return to work after one year. Still, the impact on society due to the increased health burden and economic productivity losses is significant, the authors write. “SARS-CoV-2 remains a public health emergency of international concern,” says the introduction in The Lancet, one of the world’s oldest and most prestigious medical journals.
Delta also on the rise in China
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), more than 271 million people have been infected with the coronavirus since the beginning of the pandemic. The UN health agency issues a post-COVID case report form in February, which enables medical professionals around the globe to access standardized data pools. “This will help improve understanding, surveillance, and clinical management of the disease,” said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. The WHO estimates that Long Covid still affects about one in ten infected individuals. Among them are many young people with no previous illnesses, a phenomenon that has also not yet been fully examined.
In the meantime, the Delta variant has also become dominant in China. Although official numbers only speak of a few hundred cases, Beijing continues to pursue its zero-covid strategy – including in Wuhan: At the beginning of August 2021, mass testing was mandated for the entire population of eleven million residents, following the outbreak of three infections among migrant workers. And in May, health authorities in the southern Chinese tech metropolis of Shenzhen temporarily closed the Yantian International Container Terminal. A good ten percent of Chinese exports are normally loaded there.
So far, the measures have done little to harm the Chinese economy. In the first half of the year, the world’s second-largest economy grew by 12.7 percent. For 2021 as a whole, the World Bank forecasts growth of over eight percent, while the global economy is only growing at 5.6 percent. The Chinese government, on the other hand, has set a target of “over six percent” for the entire year. However, the World Bank sees growth of only 5.4 percent next year. This is likely to melt the buffer to withstand further lockdown measures. Meanwhile, resentment over the strict lockdown policy is not only growing internationally but also within China’s economy. At the same time, the significant impact on health caused by Long Covid supports the continuation of the Covid restrictions.
Health
Wuhan
RCEP: launch of the world’s largest free trade area
It will be the world’s largest free-trade region to date outside the World Trade Organization (WTO): The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) of the Southeast Asian confederation ASEAN together with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. Since a set minimum number of member states had ratified the RCEP treaty by mid-November, it is clear that the agreement will come into force on January 1, 2022. The RCEP, with its 15 members, will be China’s first-ever regional trade agreement. It is a huge economic area that will each encompass around 30 percent of global economic output, global trade volume, and global population.
The RCEP brings together states with different political systems and stages of development. China is also repeatedly in conflict with states throughout the region: With its old rival Japan, as well as, most recently, with Australia. Added to this is Beijing’s brash behavior in the South China Sea. The fact that all these states have nevertheless signed such a far-reaching agreement with China is astonishing. Only India pulled out of the negotiations in 2019 for various reasons.
At its core, RCEP is intended to integrate the individual bilateral trade agreements between the ten ASEAN states and their five most important trading partners (the so-called ASEAN+1 FTAS) into a joint agreement. Over 80 percent of the trade liberalized by RCEP is already covered by such bilateral agreements. The Asean+1 Free Trade Agreement with China (CAFTA), for example, has already eliminated tariffs on 7,000 products.
The RCEP now sees that customs duties will gradually disappear on around 90 percent of the goods traded between all members. Procedures for import licenses, customs declarations, customs procedures, and other checks will be simplified. The RCEP treaty also standardizes rules for investment, intellectual property, and e-commerce, for example. RCEP also provides for the facilitation of trade in services.
The level of duty depends on product origin
The RCEP Rules of Origin define whether traded goods are eligible for RCEP tariff reductions and other benefits. In principle, the entire supply chain of a product must be located in the territory of the 15 RCEP countries: raw materials, preliminary products, manufacturing, and customer sales.
This does not necessarily make the trade architecture in the region less complex. The existing bilateral trade agreements will remain valid in parallel. Whether a company would rather rely on RCEP or an existing trade agreement for favorable trade conditions will depend on its business model, explains an RCEP brochure for companies in Singapore. Those who only buy from a single country and do not produce for export can decide whether the existing agreement with that country is sufficient. But those who buy inputs from several RCEP countries would be better served by the new trading region.
The origin of all input products must be precisely documented to benefit from the agreement. International companies with supply chains in the RCEP member states can also benefit from the regional harmonization of the Rules of Origin and improved trade processing, concludes China.Table cooperation partner Sinolytics.
Major benefits for China, Japan and South Korea
Ultimately, bilateral trade between ASEAN and a single partner state may not change that much. But RCEP offers great opportunities between these five partners. China, Japan, and South Korea, for example, have no trade agreements with each other so far – either tripartite or bilateral. “China is the largest trading partner for Japan and South Korea, and both nations are among China’s top five trading partners,” writes Niels Graham of the Atlantic Council’s Geoeconomics Center. Yet, they impose tariffs under the most-favored-nation (MFN) standard set by the WTO. “RCEP changes this. As a part of the agreement, China will eventually reduce tariffs to zero on 86% of Japanese goods,” Graham said.
So far, China imposed no tariffs on only eight percent of Japanese imports. Conversely, Japan would have to cut tariffs to zero on 88 percent of Chinese goods, compared to a current tariff level of about 60 percent. “Ultimately, China, Japan, and South Korea may gain far more from this agreement than ASEAN through the new linkages encouraged by RCEP’s tariff reductions,” Graham concludes. For political reasons, it was probably much easier for the three countries to agree on such liberalizations within the framework of RCEP than through direct negotiations. Japan and South Korea, for example, have been negotiating a free trade agreement for many years without ever reaching a consensus.
China is considered one of the biggest drivers and beneficiaries of the new free trade region. RCEP helps the People’s Republic to regionalize its trade flows more strongly. This makes the country less dependent on global supply chains, which can increasingly become a pawn in geopolitical conflicts. China’s high-tech sector, for example, suffers greatly from US export restrictions on certain products. Meanwhile, fair competition, subsidy reduction, or higher environmental and labor standards do not have a high priority in the RCEP, according to Sinolytics. Nor is the role of state-owned enterprises a focus. China’s bilateral trade agreements with industrialized countries are usually stricter in these regards.
China will meet all its commitments when the RCEP comes into force, the Ministry of Commerce announced in November. This includes around 700 individual items such as tariff cuts and changes to its own rules of origin. It is also said, that China would be preparing corresponding guidelines for local governments.
RCEP: expectations of EU companies in China
Most European companies either in China did notexpect any changes from RCEP or thought it was too early to make a final assessment, according to a survey conducted by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China over the summer. Only 3 percent expected a negative impact on their business, while 23 percent expected a positive impact. RCEP was designed to “encourage companies to embed their China operations in a broader regional strategy,” the Chamber wrote at the time. Some companies in the survey certainly saw that as an opportunity. But EU firms also have to expect that more and more Chinese companies will move their production to Southeast Asia, the chamber warned – with logistical or administrative implications for their supply chains.
Of those member companies that expect positive effects from RCEP, 67 percent expect sales to increase due to more exports from China to other RCEP countries. As many as 32 percent said they would rethink their regional supply chains to export more from China to RCEP countries. 39 percent expected to reduce costs through cheaper imports or diversification of their supply chains. So the overall picture is neutral to positive.
Next stop: CPTPP
RCEP is also just the beginning for China. In September, Beijing applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). This agreement is the successor to the TPP free trade project, from which former US President Barack Obama had deliberately wanted to keep China out. But Obama’s successor Donald Trump turned his back on TPP. The remaining countries went ahead without the US. Current President Joe Biden also shows no interest in CPTPP.
Now, ironically, China wants to join instead of the US (China.Table reported). But the standards are much higher than those of the RCEP. All eleven member states, which also include countries like Chile or Canada, must agree to China’s accession. Taiwan also applied for membership – a week after China. The negotiations are likely to be complicated, to say the least. RCEP, on the other hand, is ready to go.
ASEAN
CPTPP
Japan
RCEP
Trade
Zölle
News
Russia and China extend friendship
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has won China’s support for his demand for binding security agreements from the West. China’s President Xi Jinping assured Putin of this in a video conference, a representative of the presidential office in Moscow announced on Wednesday. Earlier, Putin had briefed Xi on his recent conversation with US President Joe Biden. Xi had assured Putin that he understood the latter’s concerns and supported the Russian initiative. Xi himself, according to Chinese state media, said both countries should safeguard each other’s security interests. He told Putin that currently “certain international forces” were interfering in the internal affairs of China and Russia under the guise of democracy. These forces were trampling on international law and accepted norms of international relations.
Russia wants a guarantee from the US and NATO that the Western military alliance will not expand further eastwards or station certain weapons systems in Ukraine and other countries bordering Russia. On Wednesday, Russia handed over specific proposals for binding security guarantees to US Deputy Secretary of State Karen Donfried in Moscow. Donfried had flown to Moscow amid rising tensions between East and West over the Ukraine crisis.
However, the security guarantees were not discussed in Chinese state media before China.Table’s editorial deadline. According to the state-affiliated China Daily, Putin will attend the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. Xi said he was looking forward to the visit and wanted to work with Putin “for a shared future”. After the end of the Covid pandemic, a new chapter in the relations between the two countries is set to begin.rtr/nib
Geopolitics
Russia
Vladimir Putin
Xi Jinping
Scholz wants to treat China ‘fairly’ and ‘critically’
“Fair” and “critical” – this is how the newly elected German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) outlines his idea of a new China policy. A country of China’s size and history has a central place in the international concert of nations, Scholz explained in his first government statement in the German Bundestag. “That’s why we offer China cooperation on humanity’s challenges such as the climate crisis, pandemics, or arms control.” Scholz went on to say, “We offer China fair economic competition for mutual benefit with a level playing field for all.”
At the same time, Scholz pointed to differences, particularly on human rights issues. “We must align our China policy with the China we find in reality,” he said, “but that also means that we do not close our eyes to the critical human rights situation and call violations of universal norms by name.”
CDU opposition leader Ralph Brinkhaus called for a China strategy that also keeps Germany’s economic interests in mind. “A values-led foreign policy is important, human rights are important,” Brinkhaus stressed. “But you also have the function of representing our economic interests,” the CDU politician said, addressing the Greens and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. “China is a greater challenge for our middle class, for our economy, for our prosperity than all the tax and social laws that we get wrong and right together,” said the chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag.
Green Party foreign policy expert Juergen Trittin had pleaded during an interview with Deutschlandfunk radio this morning, that no member of the German government should travel to China for the Winter Olympics because of China’s ongoing human rights violations. Even if Trittin did not explicitly say so, Germany would thereby join the diplomatic boycott of the Olympics by the USA and other countries. At the same time, however, Trittin emphasized that Germany should find a common position with other EU states. Holding Europe together on this issue would be the first test for the claim of German foreign policy to formulate a European policy, the Green politician said. flee
Ampel-Koalition
Boycott
Geopolitics
Germany
Olaf Scholz
Olympia
Lithuania recalls diplomats
Lithuania has recalled its remaining diplomats from China over security concerns. Audra Čiapienė, Lithuania’s interim chargé d’affaires in China, returned to Vilnius on Wednesday for consultations, the Financial Times (FT) reported. She had been the EU state’s top diplomat in Beijing following the recall of Lithuania’s ambassador in August. All other officials had also left for their home countries. The embassy will temporarily continue its work remotely, the foreign ministry in Vilnius said, according to the report. Previously, there had been concerns about the diplomatic immunity of Lithuanian representatives in China.
The Chinese government had asked the remaining diplomats from the Baltic EU country in Beijing to hand over their diplomatic cards to the foreign ministry for the downgrade of their diplomatic status, FT reported, citing three sources. Vilnius was therefore concerned that the officials could lose their status and their security could be compromised if they remained in the People’s Republic. China had downgraded diplomatic relations with Lithuania to the lowest level in November (China.Table reported). The trade dispute between Lithuania and China continues. The People’s Republic has now blocked imports of Lithuanian goods for the past two weeks (China Table reported).
Meanwhile, French MPs showed solidarity with Taiwan. A six-member delegation of elected representatives arrived in Taipei on Wednesday. François de Rugy, the head of the Taiwan group in the French National Assembly, is leading the delegation. The deputies will also meet President Tsai Ing-wen. There was already a similar visit in October. ari
Geopolitics
Lithuania
Trade
German Frigate enters South China Sea
A ship of the German Navy currently in Asia’s waters is reaching a crucial part of its mission: The frigate Bayern entered the South China Sea on Wednesday. The ship’s presence there is primarily symbolic. The frigate is expressly adhering to the usual routes open to traffic, according to the Ministry of Defense. The Bayern embarked back in July on the orders of thenDefense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) to show solidarity with Germany’s allies in the region and send a signal against China’s ambition for supremacy (China.Table reported).
Childcare leave (or parental leave) refers to a period of paid or unpaid leave granted to employees for the care and/or support of their children under a certain age. Although this welfare policy has existed in many other countries for years, childcare leave is very new in China and was only introduced recently as part of an effort to address the growing demographic imbalance and boost childbirth
In this article, we offer an overview of the establishment of childcare leave policy in China, summarize its recent developments in China’s different regions, and explain how childcare leave will be implemented in practice.
The establishment of childcare leave in China
On May 9, 2019, the State Council issued the Guidelines on Improving Care Services for Infants and Children Under Three Years Old, encouraging local governments to pilot childcare leave within their jurisdictions. This is designed to provide more support to home-based childcare services.
In the period following, multiple regions began exploring the implementation of childcare leave, including Xianing City in Hubei Province, Dalian City in Liaoning Province, and the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and Ningxia. At that time, however, employers were only encouraged to grant employees childcare leave until the child reached a certain age, and were not obliged to do so.
Then China announced the three-child policy in May 2021 and updated its Population and Family Planning Law in August 2021. The latter stipulates that the state supports the establishment of childcare leave where conditions permit. This is understood as a stronger and higher-level indicator of China’s determination to improve its childcare system and implement childcare leave policy.
In the following months, this suggestion was translated into concrete local policies, as more and more provinces amended their population and family planning regulations and stipulated that both parents who lawfully have a child are entitled to a certain amount of paid childcare leave per year until their child reaches a certain age. That is to say, in these regions, paid childcare leave has become a lawful right of employees, which must be granted if certain criteria are met.
It is important to note, however, not all provinces have made childcare leave a mandatory policy. Jiangsu and Jilin have amended their population and family planning regulation, but Jiangsu’s regulation only stipulates that the implementation of the childcare leave system will be promoted and the specific implementation measures will be formulated by the provincial people’s government. Jilin’s regulation, meanwhile, only has an ‘encouragement clause’: it supports the establishment of childcare leave in regions where conditions allow.
How long is childcare leave in China?
Similar to many other child-related leaves, childcare leave is managed by local governments. To know how long childcare leave is in China, we must take a closer look at the corresponding regulations in each province.
As of December 2, 2021, 20 provinces have amended their population and family planning regulations, among which 18 provinces stipulated the length of childcare leave.
Beijing and Shanghai both stipulate that each couple can enjoy five days’ childcare leave each year until their child reaches three years. Beijing further stated that the total amount of childcare leaves a couple can take each year is no more than 10 working days.
Anhui and Chongqing raised the maximum age limit of children for childcare leave to six. According to Anhui’s population and family planning regulation, each parent will be given 10 days of childcare leave each year until their child is six years old. Chongqing’s arrangement is more flexible, allowing one of two options:
After the maternity leave or paternity leave expires, subject to the approval of the employer, either parent can take childcare leave until the child reaches one year; or
Both parents can take five to 10 days of childcare leave each year until the child reaches six years.
In other provinces, the revised family planning regulations have not yet been adopted, but some provinces have published revised drafts of their local population and family planning regulations to solicit public opinions. Among them, Shaanxi plans to stipulate that each parent has no less than 30 days of childcare leave each year until their child reaches three years. Hainan plans to set up two options for childcare leave: employers are encouraged to give 10 days’ childcare leave to each parent per year until their child reaches three years, or to give one hour of childcare leave to either parent every day until the child reaches three years.
Childcare leave in relevant provinces
Anhui 10 days/year for each parent until the child reaches 6 (Jan. 1, 2022)
Beijing 5 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (Nov. 26, 2021)
Chongqing 5-10 days/year for each parent until the child reaches 6 or one parent takes childcare leave until the child reaches 1 after the maternity leave or paternity leave expires (subject to the approval of the employer) (November 25, 2021)
Gansu 15 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (Nov. 26, 2021)
Guangdong 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (December 1, 2021)
Guizhou 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Oct. 1, 2021)
Hebei 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Nov. 23, 2021)
Heilongjiang 10 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (Nov. 1, 2021)
Henan 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (November 27, 2021)
Hubei 10 days/year for each parent until the child reaches age 3 (Nov. 26, 2021)
Jiangxi 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (September 29, 2021)
Ningxia 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Nov. 30, 2021)
Qinghai 15 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Nov. 26, 2021)
Shanghai 5 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (Nov. 25, 2021)
Shanxi 15 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Sept. 29, 2021)
Sichuan 10 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (Sept. 29, 2021)
Tianjin 10 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (Nov. 29, 2021)
Zhejiang 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Nov. 25, 2021)
Liaoning 10 days/year for each parent until the child is 3 years old (Nov. 26, 2021)
Hainan 11 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (draft)
Shaanxi 30 days/year for each parent until the child reaches 3 or 1 hour/day for either parent until the child reaches 1 (draft)
Shandong 10 days/year for each parent until child is 3 years old (draft)
How will childcare leave be implemented in practice?
Childcare leave has been established, but details on how it will be implemented are yet to be clarified in most provinces.
Beijing and Shanghai have made it clear that annual childcare leave is not calculated in calendar years, but in “anniversaries”. For example, if the child was born on December 19, 2021, December 18, 2022 will be the ‘anniversary’ marking the end of the year in which each parent is entitled to five days of childcare leave.
Shanghai further clarified that childcare leave days are calculated according to the number of children the employee has. If the employee has two children who are both under three years, then they will be entitled to 10 days of childcare leave for the year. Moreover, Shanghai makes it clear that the childcare leave should be used in the current year, and can be taken over consecutively or on separate days and also stipulates that wages during childcare leave shall be paid in accordance with the normal attendance wages.
If companies operate in provinces where childcare leave has been established, they are advised to keep a close eye on the further policy developments and to start considering amendments to their employee handbook to adapt to this new statutory leave.
This article first appeared in Asia Briefing, published by Dezan Shira Associates. The firm advises international investors in Asia and has offices in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Singapore, Russia, and Vietnam.
Children
Demographics
Drei-Kind-Politik
Society
Executive Moves
Caroline So has been appointed Head of the Shanghai studio of the marketing agency Holmes & Marchant. From there, she will be responsible for the company’s activities throughout China.
Daniel Cao and Sharon Tan join the institutional sales team of French insurer Axa’s wealth management subsidiary in Hong Kong and Singapore respectively.
Dessert
Emperor Han Wendi ascended the throne in 180 BC at the age of 23 and then ruled for 23 years. The Han Empire was already flourishing at the time, while Rome was just beginning its expansion into northern Italy and Spain. A major discovery near Xi’an, the former capital of Chang’an, now tells us more about the Han Wendi period. Among other things, mountains of ceramic figurines were found in a recently uncovered mausoleum. They were part of a symbolic court that followed a dignitary into the grave. fin
