According to US President Donald Trump, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ten-day ceasefire. It began overnight. The agreement was reached during a historic phone call between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. Trump, as well as European heads of state and government, hope that the ceasefire between Lebanon and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will have a positive impact on the next round of Iranian-American negotiations in Pakistan. “Peace in Lebanon is essential for peace talks,” said a spokesperson for the Pakistani Foreign Ministry on Thursday.
The German government, too, is pushing for a swift end to the conflict in the Middle East. To protect free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, it is prepared to make German minesweepers and aircraft available. Ahead of Friday’s meeting in Paris between France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Germany, sources in Berlin government circles indicated that Chancellor Friedrich Merz supports the European call for a “diplomatic agreement” between the US and Iran.
A parliamentary mandate is required before German troops can actually be deployed. In Berlin, officials state that there would naturally be a Bundestag mandate for such a mission – but it would not be possible without US involvement. This is indispensable, they say, at least as a deterrent to Iran, to prevent the country from gradually backing out of potential agreements.
Hezbollah had intervened in the US and Israeli war against Iran on March 2. The Lebanese government banned Hezbollah’s military activities on the very same day. No government in Beirut has ever taken such a clear stand against the Shiite party militia, which was founded in 1982 by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Hezbollah, for its part, rejects direct contacts between Lebanon and Israel.
Israel has recently pursued a hard line in Lebanon. As recently as Sunday, Netanyahu sent an unambiguous video message from southern Lebanon. Surrounded by Israeli soldiers, he said the war would continue. The ceasefire likely came about due to pressure from Trump. For Trump, ending the war in Iran appears to take priority.
The negotiations were controversial. Neither Hezbollah, its supporters, nor Iran were predominantly in favor of the talks, says Michael Young, a Lebanon expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center. There was also little support for the rapprochement in neighboring Arab countries.
A lasting peace remains a distant prospect for now. Most recently, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain normalized relations with Israel in 2020, but a similar move is currently unlikely for Lebanon. Nicholas Blanford, a Middle East expert at the American think tank Atlantic Council, fears that “Lebanon is not yet ready for peace with Israel.” With Stefan Braun