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Climate fluctuations: ENSO and IOD can increase the risk of conflict

Natural climate fluctuations such as ENSO or IOD likely increase the risk of armed conflict. This is shown by an analysis of 555 armed conflicts from 1950–2023.

Kai Schöneberg
12. May 2026
Ein Feld am Rande der suedsudanesischen Hauptstadt Juba (Foto vom 20.03.2026). Der Klimawandel mit Trockenheit belastet die Landwirtschaft im Land.
A field affected by drought in South Sudan. (Imago / epd)

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Last updated: 12. May 2026

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