The big day has arrived: Today, the AI Act is due to be published in the Official Journal of the European Union. In 20 days, i.e. on Aug. 1, the European AI Act will come into force. Many have been waiting for this – both supporters and critics of the AI Act. The deadlines are now running and the timing is clear. Uncertainty is what companies shy away from the most.
However, this does not eliminate the uncertainties that lie in the often lamented undefined legal terms. Companies will need support with implementation. For this reason, the German government is also under great time pressure to quickly appoint the necessary market surveillance and notify authorities. The sooner the contact persons are identified and the structures are in place, the better. It would be a bad idea to make full use of the possible time frame. That would slow companies down. Being as late as when the Digital Services Coordinator was appointed would be a disaster.
It may actually be quicker this time. According to information obtained by Table.Briefings, the German government has already agreed on the Federal Network Agency as the market regulator, an obvious decision. However, there is no official confirmation of this yet.
There is a lot to do not only for the future supervisory authority in Germany, but also for the Commission. Kai Zenner, who was involved in the negotiations on the AI Act as an assistant to EPP MEP Axel Voss, has compiled an overview of the tasks of the AI Office, which the Commission recently set up. He has identified a total of 130 tasks on 25 pages.
39 of these aim to establish an AI governance system by Aug. 1, 2025. In addition, there are eight delegated acts, nine implementing acts, nine guidelines, eight templates/benchmarks as well as enforcement measures and subsequent evaluation tasks. As is so often the case, the work really starts with the actual publication of the AI Act.
I wish you an interesting read and a pleasant Friday.
Next Thursday at 1 p.m., the European Parliament will vote on whether Ursula von der Leyen will get a second term as Commission President. There is only one round of voting, and it will be a secret ballot. The candidate needs 361 votes – one more than an absolute majority of seats – regardless of how many members are present in the plenary. In 2019, Ursula von der Leyen almost failed, ultimately securing a narrow majority by just nine votes.
A week before the vote, von der Leyen’s camp is nervous. The “platform” supporting a second term for the CDU politician in the European Parliament includes 188 members from the EPP, 136 from the S&D, and 77 from Renew, totaling 401 seats. This means von der Leyen could afford 40 dissenters in her own camp, but only if all members are present. This is very tight, especially since party discipline in the Strasbourg parliament is far from as strict as in the Bundestag.
The Greens have 53 seats in the Parliament. While they are not fully involved in the ongoing talks about forming an informal coalition, von der Leyen is in discussions with them, and negotiations are also taking place between the platform’s leaders and the Greens regarding positions distributed from the cordon sanitaire. Altogether, the platform factions – EPP, S&D, Renew and the Greens – total 454 votes, 93 more than the necessary minimum.
Here is an overview of von der Leyen’s chances within the factions:
It is expected that von der Leyen will secure at least 90 percent of the votes within her own faction. Her support is anticipated to be higher than in 2019. It is in her favor that she was the top candidate of the Christian Democratic party family this time, unlike in 2019. They campaigned together, and now all must ensure that the EPP candidate gets another five years of responsibility. Even members who openly opposed her in 2019 now express support.
The French delegation of six members from Les Républicains and four Slovenian members of Janez Janša’s SDS are considered potential wavering voters within the EPP. Both parties publicly stated at the EPP Congress in Bucharest that they voted against nominating von der Leyen as the top candidate in a secret ballot.
However, EPP faction leader Manfred Weber may have secured these votes for von der Leyen: François-Xavier Bellamy, head of the French delegation, and Romana Tomc from the Slovenian delegation were recently elected vice-presidents in the faction. It is understood that anyone in a prominent faction role must vote for their own candidate. Additionally, the faction leadership is exerting pressure, emphasizing the importance of attendance on Thursday, with potential consequences for absentees. A trial vote is not planned.
Von der Leyen still needs to convince the German Social Democrats. During a three-hour hearing with the S&D faction, the CDU politician made some progress but has not yet won them over, according to SPD group leader René Repasi. His faction has several questions and wants written answers before making a final decision.
Repasi mentioned a “Green Deal with a red heart” and social housing as examples that must be included in von der Leyen’s work program. He also stressed that a “triple combination” of EPP, S&D, and Renew would not suffice for re-election and that green votes are necessary.
Not all German Social Democrats are ready to support von der Leyen yet. In 2019, none of them voted for her, but this time the yes votes are expected to be significantly higher. However, reservations remain, particularly among the left-wing and trade union members.
The French Socialists might also vote against von der Leyen if President Emmanuel Macron excludes the French left from forming a government in Paris. The French Socialists are reportedly tense, with MEP Raphaël Glucksmann preoccupied with negotiations in Paris and not yet participating in preparations for the Commission president election.
The liberals are considered the bigger concern. Especially the five Irish members of Fianna Fáil threaten to vote no. During the faction meeting, members bombarded von der Leyen with critical questions, particularly about whether she would cooperate with the far-right in Parliament, which she eventually denied, and demanded assurances about the rule of law mechanism. Von der Leyen took time to address these questions but was not very specific on rule of law and bureaucracy reduction.
If the three center factions agree on a common platform, most of the 77 Renew members are likely to support von der Leyen, but the final number is still uncertain. The liberals are pushing for demands such as a full defense committee chaired by one of their members.
Some MEPs oppose von der Leyen on principle, for example, due to her Gaza policy. Kaja Kallas, who secured the position of High Representative for the liberal party family in the job negotiations, is reportedly pressuring potential dissenters. The Irish members are reminded that their candidate for the Commission could fail in the committee.
The role of the Greens in von der Leyen’s election is the hardest to gauge. In 2019, they were not part of the informal coalition, yet some members still voted for her. This time there are agreements, suggesting a higher proportion of the faction might vote yes.
The Greens have clearly stated their demands to von der Leyen and are waiting to see her guidelines for the term. If these align with green demands, high approval is expected. The Greens want von der Leyen to signal that their faction will be part of the informal coalition.
In 2019, Fidesz, then without a faction, and parts of the ECR faction voted for von der Leyen, likely contributing significantly to her election. This time, fewer yes votes from the ECR faction are expected, but it is not ruled out.
Giorgia Meloni, leader of the conservative ECR party family, abstained during the EU summit vote on von der Leyen’s candidacy, leaving the door open for ECR members.
European NATO countries are assuming a more significant role in the alliance. French President Emmanuel Macron referred to the endorsement of his concept of a European NATO pillar within the alliance as a “Copernican revolution” during his closing press conference on Thursday.
Much of the discussion centered on money, aid to Ukraine, Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s fitness – less so on the military changes. “We are currently, without much fanfare, creating a NATO that is more capable, responsive and European,” said Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and former NATO Deputy Secretary General, to Table.Briefings.
NATO’s plans to keep 300,000 soldiers at high readiness, most of whom are Europeans, represent a “significant change,” according to Grand. The increase in defense spending by European NATO countries is “enormous”. The policy advisor sees the EU as an increasingly active player that is providing more funds – “in my opinion, not yet enough” – for development, which also serves NATO interests.
Not everyone shares this view. US Republicans want Europe to spend more on defense but prefer that the funds flow into the US. Conservative commentator Nile Gardiner stated that Macron’s strategic autonomy is “poison” for NATO.
US President Joe Biden aimed to make the NATO summit a success, partly for domestic political reasons. “In the US, we are witnessing a domestication of foreign and security policy,” said Michael Werz of the Munich Security Conference and the Democrat-aligned think tank Center for American Progress. Therefore, it was crucial for Biden to “make this NATO summit a success because NATO’s importance needs to be justified within the United States”.
The final day of the summit was overshadowed by Biden’s unsteady performance. On Thursday evening, he mistakenly introduced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as “President Putin”, though he corrected himself after a moment. Biden is losing support among US Democrats. Foreign politicians’ closing press conferences also featured questions about their perception of Biden’s health. Aside from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who reportedly planned to meet with Donald Trump after the summit, most European leaders are unlikely to wish for a re-election of the Republican US president.
Germany, in particular, does not. Berlin’s standing in the US is as strong as it has been in a long time. “In the White House, there is an equivalence between Europe and Berlin. German contributions are recognized,” said Werz. Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized this as well, stating he had received “much recognition” for Germany’s role in the alliance during the summit. The US is more critical of France, which lags behind Germany in support for Ukraine.
However, the NATO summit did not clearly address whether the focus will shift to the Indo-Pacific. What happens in Europe is relevant to Asia and vice versa, said Secretary General Stoltenberg in his closing remarks. Macron stressed that increased cooperation with Indo-Pacific countries would “in no way” turn NATO into a defense alliance that needs to deploy troops to the region. Despite the strong language towards China in NATO’s final declaration, questions remain about Europe’s role in the Indo-Pacific. “The Americans are not clear about what they expect from the Europeans,” said Grand. “They say Europeans should be more concerned about China, but they do not specify whether they need concrete help in the Indo-Pacific or a stronger commitment in Europe to free up American resources there.”
The Olympic flame is expected to be presented next Sunday at the Palais Bourbon, the proud seat of the National Assembly on the banks of the Seine. It was planned that the President of Parliament would receive the flame. But this will not happen – because it is not yet clear who will hold this office. The French MPs will not elect the presidency of their parliament until July 18. On this day, the various political groups in the National Assembly will also be officially announced. The political groups are currently still struggling to decide on their composition.
This institutional vacuum a few days before the opening of the Olympic Games is an apt example of the political confusion currently prevailing in France. Forming a government is proving to be extremely difficult. At the moment, the French political landscape is dominated by the minutiae of public statements and reactions as well as numerous meetings and informal dinners where deals are made and broken.
French politics is in turmoil, “nobody really knows where we’re going at the moment“, says a newly elected parliamentarian to Table.Briefings. “Macron wanted to bring clarity with these elections, but the exact opposite is happening.” This feeling of frustration is likely to be shared by almost all parties, regardless of political camp. It is rumored that the relationship between Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and President Macron has been miserable since the announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly.
Macron’s camp in particular no longer shows the unity that existed before the dissolution. The president is pushing for Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin to replace Attal, who is still in office. The plan is for Darmanin to take over the leadership of a coalition government between the center and the right-wing conservative Republicans. However, this plan is rejected by left-wing MPs from the Macron camp. Darmanin is Attal’s great rival, who remains popular among Macronist MPs.
It gets even more complicated. The left-wing alliance behind the Nouveau Front Populaire cannot agree on the choice of their candidate for prime minister. “We need far too much time”, said Green MP Sandrine Rousseau on French radio on Thursday morning. Because it is urgently necessary for the NFP to nominate its candidate as quickly as possible. That way, the alliance can put pressure on Macron to accept a left-wing government – which he definitely does not want.
And so it continues on the right. The conservative Republicans are now splitting into Ciotti supporters and Ciotti opponents. Ciotti is the chairman of Les Républicains, who had opted for an alliance with the Rassemblement National before the election. This decision caused horror within the party. The result: Republican Laurent Wauquiez became chairman of the new right-wing parliamentary group La Droite républicaine, which brings together opponents of Ciotti. He makes no secret of the fact that he would like to become the next President of the French Republic.
Because that is what matters now: The new political constellation will be crucial in preparing for the post-Macron era in 2027. But at the moment, the parties are mainly preoccupied with themselves.
The big day has arrived: Today, the AI Act is due to be published in the Official Journal of the European Union. In 20 days, i.e. on Aug. 1, the European AI Act will come into force. Many have been waiting for this – both supporters and critics of the AI Act. The deadlines are now running and the timing is clear. Uncertainty is what companies shy away from the most.
However, this does not eliminate the uncertainties that lie in the often lamented undefined legal terms. Companies will need support with implementation. For this reason, the German government is also under great time pressure to quickly appoint the necessary market surveillance and notify authorities. The sooner the contact persons are identified and the structures are in place, the better. It would be a bad idea to make full use of the possible time frame. That would slow companies down. Being as late as when the Digital Services Coordinator was appointed would be a disaster.
It may actually be quicker this time. According to information obtained by Table.Briefings, the German government has already agreed on the Federal Network Agency as the market regulator, an obvious decision. However, there is no official confirmation of this yet.
There is a lot to do not only for the future supervisory authority in Germany, but also for the Commission. Kai Zenner, who was involved in the negotiations on the AI Act as an assistant to EPP MEP Axel Voss, has compiled an overview of the tasks of the AI Office, which the Commission recently set up. He has identified a total of 130 tasks on 25 pages.
39 of these aim to establish an AI governance system by Aug. 1, 2025. In addition, there are eight delegated acts, nine implementing acts, nine guidelines, eight templates/benchmarks as well as enforcement measures and subsequent evaluation tasks. As is so often the case, the work really starts with the actual publication of the AI Act.
I wish you an interesting read and a pleasant Friday.
Next Thursday at 1 p.m., the European Parliament will vote on whether Ursula von der Leyen will get a second term as Commission President. There is only one round of voting, and it will be a secret ballot. The candidate needs 361 votes – one more than an absolute majority of seats – regardless of how many members are present in the plenary. In 2019, Ursula von der Leyen almost failed, ultimately securing a narrow majority by just nine votes.
A week before the vote, von der Leyen’s camp is nervous. The “platform” supporting a second term for the CDU politician in the European Parliament includes 188 members from the EPP, 136 from the S&D, and 77 from Renew, totaling 401 seats. This means von der Leyen could afford 40 dissenters in her own camp, but only if all members are present. This is very tight, especially since party discipline in the Strasbourg parliament is far from as strict as in the Bundestag.
The Greens have 53 seats in the Parliament. While they are not fully involved in the ongoing talks about forming an informal coalition, von der Leyen is in discussions with them, and negotiations are also taking place between the platform’s leaders and the Greens regarding positions distributed from the cordon sanitaire. Altogether, the platform factions – EPP, S&D, Renew and the Greens – total 454 votes, 93 more than the necessary minimum.
Here is an overview of von der Leyen’s chances within the factions:
It is expected that von der Leyen will secure at least 90 percent of the votes within her own faction. Her support is anticipated to be higher than in 2019. It is in her favor that she was the top candidate of the Christian Democratic party family this time, unlike in 2019. They campaigned together, and now all must ensure that the EPP candidate gets another five years of responsibility. Even members who openly opposed her in 2019 now express support.
The French delegation of six members from Les Républicains and four Slovenian members of Janez Janša’s SDS are considered potential wavering voters within the EPP. Both parties publicly stated at the EPP Congress in Bucharest that they voted against nominating von der Leyen as the top candidate in a secret ballot.
However, EPP faction leader Manfred Weber may have secured these votes for von der Leyen: François-Xavier Bellamy, head of the French delegation, and Romana Tomc from the Slovenian delegation were recently elected vice-presidents in the faction. It is understood that anyone in a prominent faction role must vote for their own candidate. Additionally, the faction leadership is exerting pressure, emphasizing the importance of attendance on Thursday, with potential consequences for absentees. A trial vote is not planned.
Von der Leyen still needs to convince the German Social Democrats. During a three-hour hearing with the S&D faction, the CDU politician made some progress but has not yet won them over, according to SPD group leader René Repasi. His faction has several questions and wants written answers before making a final decision.
Repasi mentioned a “Green Deal with a red heart” and social housing as examples that must be included in von der Leyen’s work program. He also stressed that a “triple combination” of EPP, S&D, and Renew would not suffice for re-election and that green votes are necessary.
Not all German Social Democrats are ready to support von der Leyen yet. In 2019, none of them voted for her, but this time the yes votes are expected to be significantly higher. However, reservations remain, particularly among the left-wing and trade union members.
The French Socialists might also vote against von der Leyen if President Emmanuel Macron excludes the French left from forming a government in Paris. The French Socialists are reportedly tense, with MEP Raphaël Glucksmann preoccupied with negotiations in Paris and not yet participating in preparations for the Commission president election.
The liberals are considered the bigger concern. Especially the five Irish members of Fianna Fáil threaten to vote no. During the faction meeting, members bombarded von der Leyen with critical questions, particularly about whether she would cooperate with the far-right in Parliament, which she eventually denied, and demanded assurances about the rule of law mechanism. Von der Leyen took time to address these questions but was not very specific on rule of law and bureaucracy reduction.
If the three center factions agree on a common platform, most of the 77 Renew members are likely to support von der Leyen, but the final number is still uncertain. The liberals are pushing for demands such as a full defense committee chaired by one of their members.
Some MEPs oppose von der Leyen on principle, for example, due to her Gaza policy. Kaja Kallas, who secured the position of High Representative for the liberal party family in the job negotiations, is reportedly pressuring potential dissenters. The Irish members are reminded that their candidate for the Commission could fail in the committee.
The role of the Greens in von der Leyen’s election is the hardest to gauge. In 2019, they were not part of the informal coalition, yet some members still voted for her. This time there are agreements, suggesting a higher proportion of the faction might vote yes.
The Greens have clearly stated their demands to von der Leyen and are waiting to see her guidelines for the term. If these align with green demands, high approval is expected. The Greens want von der Leyen to signal that their faction will be part of the informal coalition.
In 2019, Fidesz, then without a faction, and parts of the ECR faction voted for von der Leyen, likely contributing significantly to her election. This time, fewer yes votes from the ECR faction are expected, but it is not ruled out.
Giorgia Meloni, leader of the conservative ECR party family, abstained during the EU summit vote on von der Leyen’s candidacy, leaving the door open for ECR members.
European NATO countries are assuming a more significant role in the alliance. French President Emmanuel Macron referred to the endorsement of his concept of a European NATO pillar within the alliance as a “Copernican revolution” during his closing press conference on Thursday.
Much of the discussion centered on money, aid to Ukraine, Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s fitness – less so on the military changes. “We are currently, without much fanfare, creating a NATO that is more capable, responsive and European,” said Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and former NATO Deputy Secretary General, to Table.Briefings.
NATO’s plans to keep 300,000 soldiers at high readiness, most of whom are Europeans, represent a “significant change,” according to Grand. The increase in defense spending by European NATO countries is “enormous”. The policy advisor sees the EU as an increasingly active player that is providing more funds – “in my opinion, not yet enough” – for development, which also serves NATO interests.
Not everyone shares this view. US Republicans want Europe to spend more on defense but prefer that the funds flow into the US. Conservative commentator Nile Gardiner stated that Macron’s strategic autonomy is “poison” for NATO.
US President Joe Biden aimed to make the NATO summit a success, partly for domestic political reasons. “In the US, we are witnessing a domestication of foreign and security policy,” said Michael Werz of the Munich Security Conference and the Democrat-aligned think tank Center for American Progress. Therefore, it was crucial for Biden to “make this NATO summit a success because NATO’s importance needs to be justified within the United States”.
The final day of the summit was overshadowed by Biden’s unsteady performance. On Thursday evening, he mistakenly introduced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as “President Putin”, though he corrected himself after a moment. Biden is losing support among US Democrats. Foreign politicians’ closing press conferences also featured questions about their perception of Biden’s health. Aside from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who reportedly planned to meet with Donald Trump after the summit, most European leaders are unlikely to wish for a re-election of the Republican US president.
Germany, in particular, does not. Berlin’s standing in the US is as strong as it has been in a long time. “In the White House, there is an equivalence between Europe and Berlin. German contributions are recognized,” said Werz. Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized this as well, stating he had received “much recognition” for Germany’s role in the alliance during the summit. The US is more critical of France, which lags behind Germany in support for Ukraine.
However, the NATO summit did not clearly address whether the focus will shift to the Indo-Pacific. What happens in Europe is relevant to Asia and vice versa, said Secretary General Stoltenberg in his closing remarks. Macron stressed that increased cooperation with Indo-Pacific countries would “in no way” turn NATO into a defense alliance that needs to deploy troops to the region. Despite the strong language towards China in NATO’s final declaration, questions remain about Europe’s role in the Indo-Pacific. “The Americans are not clear about what they expect from the Europeans,” said Grand. “They say Europeans should be more concerned about China, but they do not specify whether they need concrete help in the Indo-Pacific or a stronger commitment in Europe to free up American resources there.”
The Olympic flame is expected to be presented next Sunday at the Palais Bourbon, the proud seat of the National Assembly on the banks of the Seine. It was planned that the President of Parliament would receive the flame. But this will not happen – because it is not yet clear who will hold this office. The French MPs will not elect the presidency of their parliament until July 18. On this day, the various political groups in the National Assembly will also be officially announced. The political groups are currently still struggling to decide on their composition.
This institutional vacuum a few days before the opening of the Olympic Games is an apt example of the political confusion currently prevailing in France. Forming a government is proving to be extremely difficult. At the moment, the French political landscape is dominated by the minutiae of public statements and reactions as well as numerous meetings and informal dinners where deals are made and broken.
French politics is in turmoil, “nobody really knows where we’re going at the moment“, says a newly elected parliamentarian to Table.Briefings. “Macron wanted to bring clarity with these elections, but the exact opposite is happening.” This feeling of frustration is likely to be shared by almost all parties, regardless of political camp. It is rumored that the relationship between Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and President Macron has been miserable since the announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly.
Macron’s camp in particular no longer shows the unity that existed before the dissolution. The president is pushing for Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin to replace Attal, who is still in office. The plan is for Darmanin to take over the leadership of a coalition government between the center and the right-wing conservative Republicans. However, this plan is rejected by left-wing MPs from the Macron camp. Darmanin is Attal’s great rival, who remains popular among Macronist MPs.
It gets even more complicated. The left-wing alliance behind the Nouveau Front Populaire cannot agree on the choice of their candidate for prime minister. “We need far too much time”, said Green MP Sandrine Rousseau on French radio on Thursday morning. Because it is urgently necessary for the NFP to nominate its candidate as quickly as possible. That way, the alliance can put pressure on Macron to accept a left-wing government – which he definitely does not want.
And so it continues on the right. The conservative Republicans are now splitting into Ciotti supporters and Ciotti opponents. Ciotti is the chairman of Les Républicains, who had opted for an alliance with the Rassemblement National before the election. This decision caused horror within the party. The result: Republican Laurent Wauquiez became chairman of the new right-wing parliamentary group La Droite républicaine, which brings together opponents of Ciotti. He makes no secret of the fact that he would like to become the next President of the French Republic.
Because that is what matters now: The new political constellation will be crucial in preparing for the post-Macron era in 2027. But at the moment, the parties are mainly preoccupied with themselves.
