It is supposed to be the crowning glory of this legislative period: Today, the European Parliament is voting on the legislative package on asylum and migration policy. After years of hesitation and wrangling, the so-called CEAS reform is intended to create a uniform, efficient and (to a certain extent) solidarity-based asylum policy in the EU – just in time for the European elections.
But shortly before the final vote in the Brussels mini-plenary, unrest is spreading. The French Socialists, the German Greens and some Liberals and Conservatives do notwant to agree to at least parts of the reform. For some it goes too far, for others not far enough.
The rapporteurs fear that the legislative package could be split up. This would jeopardizethefragile balance between repressive and liberal measures. However, the package already looks half-baked. The individual right to asylum is being restricted and even families with children are facing hardship. In contrast, the new solidarity mechanism, which is intended to ensure a fairer distribution of immigrants among EU countries, seems like little consolation.
Some countries have already pulled out. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, for example, has announced that he will not take partin the redistribution. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is going even further – she wants to send asylum seekers to Albania without further ado.
This is difficult to reconcile with the GEAS reform. The amendment is being undermined even before it has been passed. The asylum debate is likely to continueeven after the vote.
European economic policy suffers from a central contradiction. On the one hand, the need for investment is increasing massively across the continent if the EU’s political goals are to be achieved. On the other hand, the EU’s current budget policy is leading to a reduction in public resources.
Estimates vary, but it is clear that achieving the climate targets alone will require additional investment of several hundred billion per year. In addition, the digital infrastructure needs to be expanded and defense spending is skyrocketing. This week, Ministers Habeck, Le Maire and Urso called for more funding for industrial policy. The European Roundtable of Industry then announced that additional investment of 800 billion euros would be required for the energy infrastructure alone by 2030.
At the same time, European budget policy at EU and national level calls for savings in the medium term.
Next Generation EU expires
The Next Generation EU (NGEU) pandemic rescue fund expires in 2026. If it is not replaced, the EU states will therefore have significantly fewer funds available from 2027. According to Sander Tordoir, Senior Economist at the Centre for European Reform (CER), the EU cohesion funds could provide a kind of cushion to absorb the impact.
During the current financial framework, the Member States have only tapped into a small part of the cohesion funds to which they are entitled. While the NGEU funds have to be spent quickly, cohesion funds can be used up to three years after the end of the financial framework. Tordoir therefore does not expect the EU to fall over a kind of fiscal cliff any time soon. Instead, a “financial crash in slow motion” is looming.
In addition, the debt incurred for NGEU must be repaid from 2027. Originally, new EU resources were to be created for this, but little has happened so far. So either the repayment will be made at the expense of the future EU budget or the repayment will have to be financed from national budgets.
EU debt rules put national budgets under pressure
However, national budgets are coming under pressure even earlier. The EU debt rules have been in force again since this year. But they are not being adhered to. This year, the EU will probably initiate an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against more than half of all member states. This includes large member states such as France, Italy, Spain and Poland.
In theory, this means that the member states will have to reduce their structural deficit from 2025. Whether they will do so is another question. Shortly before Easter, the French government presented a higher deficit than expected for 2023: 5.6 percent of GDP.
Right-wing extremists in France benefit from austerity policy
“Any adjustment of the structural deficit is associated with high domestic political risks for Macron”, says Shahin Vallée, Senior Research Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations. He fears that an austerity policy or a tax increase would cause severe political damage to Macron, from which the far right would benefit. “The new EU debt rules, as recently agreed, are not up to the task”, says Vallée.
Zsolt Darvas, Senior Fellow at the Brussels think tank Bruegel, also points out that reducing structural deficits will be “extremely difficult” to implement for political economy reasons. Past experience has shown that governments often cut investment budgets first when cutting budgets because this is politically easier to implement than structural adjustments.
Showdown will take place in 2027 at the latest
Over the course of the coming year, it will become clear how seriously countries such as France and Italy take compliance with the debt rules. This is also likely to influence the discussion during the elections in Germany in 2025. In addition, the Commission will then launch the discussion on the new multiannual financial framework from 2028 to 2034.
An extension of the current Next Generation EU program is likely to be discussed in 2026, which would take some of the pressure off in the meantime. However, the showdown is expected to take place the following year. A decision on the new multiannual financial framework must be made by December 2027 at the latest – and therefore it must also be clear how NGEU is to be repaid. In addition, a transitional provision in the new EU debt rules, which protects state budgets from increased interest costs, will also expire in 2027. This means that pressure will also increase at member state budget level.
Thinking EU budget and debt rules together
According to Vallée, when the EU Commission proposed the new debt rules in 2023, it made the mistake of not linking the new debt rules to a permanent borrowing capacity at EU level. Tordoir also wrote in a 2023 paper that the EU budget should have been linked to the new debt rules. This would protect investment budgets while providing an incentive to get national budgets in order.
It is impossible to predict whether the EU debt rules will be reformed again in 2027. But even a new reform of the debt rules would not solve the problem because many countries simply lack the fiscal firepower. A discussion about a relaunch of NGEU or a similar instrument therefore seems unavoidable if the EU’s investment needs are to be roughly covered.
Integration of the ESM into the EU
“The best thing would be to commit to new joint borrowing for climate and defense spending right now“, says Vallée. This does not have to look exactly like Next Generation EU, but could also work, for example, by integrating the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) into the EU. This currently exists outside the EU institutions and can raise up to €500 billion on the financial markets.
For Zsolt Darvas from Bruegel, it is also clear that a new, NGEU-like program is unavoidable if investment needs are to be met. “The way the fund is currently structured, it can also be used to circumvent national debt rules”, he says. This would also allow Germany to invest more while complying with its debt brake.
Elections in Germany decisive
Commissioners Paolo Gentiloni and Thierry Breton are already repeatedly campaigning for a relaunch of NGEU. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Emmanuel Macron have also spoken out in favor of joint borrowing to finance the defense capacities of the EU and Ukraine – so far without success.
The idea has met with resistance in key member states, particularly in Germany and the Netherlands. Above all, the elections in Germany in 2025 and the plans of the successor government will be decisive in the decision for or against a relaunch of NGEU. For those in favor of a relaunch, the challenge will be to appease Germany’s mistrust.
The dilemma is that mistrust in Berlin continues to grow when countries such as France or Italy disregard the debt rules. But if these countries adhered to the debt rules, they face the threat of political instability.
Debt
Debt brake
EU-Schuldenregeln
Fiscal policy
Investments
NextGenerationEU
European Court of Human Rights: state duty to climate action
This could be a groundbreaking ruling for the climate policies of European states and for further climate lawsuits: The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) recognized in its ruling on Tuesday that climate change threatens human rights – and inadequate climate action jeopardizes them. It ruled in favor of a lawsuit by Swiss citizens against their country’s policies but rejected further lawsuits.
Because states are obligated to protect the fundamental rights of their citizens, a state duty to climate action can be derived from this.
The European Convention on Human Rights includes in Article 8, which regulates the right to respect for private and family life, “a right to effective protection by state authorities against the serious harmful aspects of climate change on life, health, well-being, and quality of life”. Therefore, climate action is a human right under the Convention.
Human-induced climate change is a fact and a threat to human rights under the Convention. States are aware of this and can take measures against it.
States party to the Convention are also obliged under Article 8 to design and implement rules and measures against it. Switzerland has shown gaps in “quantifying the limitation of greenhouse gas emissions, through a CO2 budget or otherwise”.
Switzerland violated the plaintiffs’ right to a fair trial (Article 6) because an authority and two courts “rejected their claim on the basis of inadequate and insufficient consideration”.
The plaintiffs were not granted the status of individual victims. Under the Convention, there is usually no right to a “class action” where groups of non-victims can go to court. However, because climate change “is a matter of general interest to humanity and intergenerational burden-sharing should be advanced,” the Court found it “appropriate to grant associations the right in the context of climate change“.
Signaling effect for courts throughout Europe
The Court criticizes Switzerland for lacking a CO2 budget or clear limits. However, Switzerland’s Climate Change Act from last year does indeed prescribe such reduction targets for 2040 (minus 75 percent) and 2050 (net zero) – and formulates average values for the years and sectors in between. There is also the possibility to credit negative emissions. Apparently, the law came too late for the court that was previously negotiated – and it only sets the limits from 2030 onwards.
It was the first climate lawsuit ever heard before the ECHR. Formally, the judgment initially binds only Switzerland. But it is likely to have a signaling effect on courts throughout Europe. The ECHR is part of the Council of Europe and is responsible for ensuring compliance with the European Convention on Human Rights, making its judgments relevant to all member states of the Council of Europe.
The Swiss senior citizens had sued the Swiss state because it was not doing enough to combat global warming. Due to their age, they are particularly affected by the health impacts of climate change.
Two other lawsuits dismissed
However, the ECHR dismissed two other climate lawsuits. Damien Carême, a Green European politician who felt his human rights were affected by rising sea levels, was not personally affected by the effects of climate change. Therefore, his lawsuit was inadmissible. The man no longer lives in his original hometown on the English Channel.
A group of Portuguese youth and young adults who had sued all member states of the Council of Europe were also dismissed. Their right to sue was limited to their home state of Portugal, the court ruled – and there, they should have exhausted the legal process before turning to the ECHR.
“This decision is definitely a turning point,” says Corina Heri, human rights expert at the University of Zurich, to Table.Briefings. It means “the impacts of global warming on people do fall under human rights, and confirms that these cases can be brought before the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg.”
The admission of the lawsuit by the association shows that the court signals a preference for bundled climate cases, Heri continues. With its decision, the ECHR has paved the way for future climate lawsuits in Europe: First, go to the national court and file a lawsuit as an organization, Heri explained.
SVP calls for withdrawal from Council of Europe
The Swiss government party, the SVP, reacted angrily to the ruling. “Ideology and denial of reality reign in the European court palaces,” the party said. It is a “brazen interference in Swiss politics,” which is unacceptable for a sovereign country. Therefore, the SVP is calling for Switzerland’s withdrawal from the Council of Europe.
Climate & Environment
Climate complaints
Human Rights
Switzerland
News
Clean Transition: Šefčovič wants comment box for the industry
Companies from green industries should be able to report obstacles in the European single market to EU authorities more easily in the future. The Commission will set up its own platform to make it easier to identify obstacles – “especially those that hinder the spread of clean technologies”. This is stated in the report on the Clean Transition Dialogues with industry, which Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič intends to present on Wednesday and which is available to Table.Briefings in draft form.
According to the draft, the platform will be based on the EU administration portal Your Europe and the Single Market Obstacle Tool (SMOT) analysis tool. Companies can already use Your Europe to report problems that they have experienced in their own or another EU country and that relate to national or European law or the national implementation of EU law.
Hydrogen Europe praises ‘Implementovič’
The Clean Transition Dialogues are based on an initiative by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen from her State of the Union speech last year. Since October, dialogues have been held on hydrogen, energy-intensive industries and net-zero sectors, among others.
The proposals were welcomed by the hydrogen association Hydrogen Europe. “Šefčovič has an apt nickname in Brussels: Implementovič“, said CEO Jorgo Chatzimarkakis. “After the presidential elections in Slovakia, it is very likely that he could return to Brussels as Slovakian Commissioner and it would be of utmost importance that he can continue his effective work to develop European competitiveness in the cleantech sector.” ber/tho
European Council calls for ‘competitiveness deal’
The EU heads of state and government want to adopt a competitiveness agenda at next week’s special summit. Geopolitical tensions and in particular the subsidy policies of other countries have “exposed the Union’s vulnerabilities, while long-term productivity and technological and demographic trends require urgent policy adjustments”, according to a draft of the final declaration, which is available to Table.Briefings. A “European competitiveness deal” is needed to catch up with the EU in terms of growth, productivity and innovation.
The EU Commission is to develop a new, horizontal single market strategy by June 2025. In the draft conclusions, the heads of state and government commit to removing barriers in the single market. This applies “in particular in relation to the cross-border provision of services and capital, and by fully implementing free movement rules“.
However, the member states have shown little willingness in recent years to remove legal and bureaucratic hurdles for service providers and workers from other EU states. Former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta is to present a report on how the single market can be deepened before the summit next Wednesday and Thursday. The President of the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris will be a guest of the College of EU Commissioners on Wednesday. According to reports, he has not yet completed his report.
Progress on capital markets union
According to the draft, the EU heads of state and government also want to make progress on the Capital Markets Union. They want to harmonize insolvency law and corporate taxation, which has so far proved extremely difficult due to national resistance. The demands regarding the securitization market, which the heads of state want to boost by adapting banking regulation, could be more promising. This was also one of the demands of the Eurogroup when it presented its roadmap for the Capital Markets Union in March.
The draft conclusion takes a relevant step concerning market supervision. Until now, some governments – including the German government – have resisted centralization. The draft now states that the European supervisory authorities should be enabled to “supervise the most systemic relevant cross border capital and financial market actors”. If this text is confirmed by the heads of government next week, it would be a signal that they are now serious about the Capital Markets Union. At the end of March, Scholz said that Germany would also have to jump over a few hurdles here.
On Tuesday, the structure of the strategic agenda that Council President Charles Michel has drawn up for the next legislative period also became known. The document, which was published by our friends from Contexte, lists the general topics that the heads of state and government have identified. tho/jaa
Europäischer Rat
Industrial policy
Industriepolitik
Technology
Trade
EU Commission launches investigation against Chinese wind power manufacturers
The EU Commission is scrutinizing subsidies to Chinese suppliers of wind farms for Europe. EU Commissioner Margrethe Vestager stated on Tuesday that the Brussels authority would examinethe conditions for the development of wind farms in Spain, Greece, France, Romania and Bulgaria. She did not name the companies concerned.
These steps were necessary “before it is too late,” Vestager said in a speech at Princeton University. “We cannot afford to watch what happened with solar panels happen again with electric vehicles, wind power or important chips.”
She wanted to make it clear that China’s success should not be restricted, said Vestager. The steps should “restore fairness in our economic relations.” She added: “Everyone is welcome to be successful. Everyone is welcome to trade with Europe. But they have to play by the rules.”
China’s wind turbine manufacturers are still relatively new to business in Europe. In 2022, the company Mingyang Smart Energy equipped the 30-megawatt Beleolico offshore wind farm off southern Italy. It was the first offshore wind farm in Europe with turbines from China. Since then, companies from the Far East have been gradually getting their foot in the door.
Ursula von der Leyen expressed a similar view to Vestager. Dealing with China requires a clear and open approach, said the EU Commission President on Tuesday in Berlin referring to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s upcoming trip to the People’s Republic.
She said the principle should be reducing risks without decoupling from China. Unfair competitive conditions, overcapacities in China and subsidies for its companies must be addressed. “We want equally good access to the Chinese market,” von der Leyen said. “If this is not the case, we must take action.”
EU regulation on foreign subsidies
Last week, the EU Commission had already launched an investigation into whether Chinese bidders in a public tender for a solar park in Romania had benefited excessively from state subsidies in their bids. The Chinese bidder in question, CRRC Qingdao Sifang Locomotive, recently responded to the launch of a similar investigation into foreign state subsidies in a railroad project in Bulgaria by withdrawing from the tender.
All of these investigations are being carried out under the EU’s Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR), which is due to come into force in 2023. Wang Lutong, the director general responsible for Europe at the Chinese Foreign Ministry, criticized the announcement. He called on Brussels “not to use the FSR as a tool for protectionism and economic coercion and to stop interfering with normal business operations,” Wang wrote on X. ari
Chips
EU
Subsidies
Wind power
Von der Leyen raises Pieper case in Commission meeting
The appointment of Markus Pieper (CDU) as the Commission’s SME Envoy will be discussed at the Commission meeting on Wednesday. Under the agenda item “Any other business”, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will comment on the criticism of four Commissioners.
At the end of March, Foreign Affairs Commissioner Josep Borrell, Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, Social Affairs Commissioner Nicolas Schmit and Finance Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni called on von der Leyen to put the issue back on the agenda. The background to this was critical questions from Parliament. It is expected that von der Leyen will defend the appeal procedure.
Members of Parliament from the Social Democrats, Greens, Liberals and Left had raised the question of whether von der Leyen had appointed a party colleague even though he had performed worse in the application process than his two main rivals, Martina Dlabajová from the Czech Republic and Anna Stellinger from Sweden.
Budget Commissioner defends decision
The Commissioner for Budget and Personnel, Johannes Hahn, had already replied to the four commissioners on Monday. The letter, which is available to Table.Briefings, states:
“All three shortlisted candidates were interviewed and considered generally qualified for the post. As you are well aware, gender and geographical balance are general policy considerations, but do not replace merit as the primary criterion. Within the usual margin of discretion for such senior appointments, Mr Pieper was proposed to the College for endorsement based on his vast experience and track record in the field of SMEs, also outlined at the College meeting without any further points raised.”
In their reply, the four commissioners criticize the fact that it was not von der Leyen who answered them, but Hahn. They are not satisfied with his answer either. Instead, they repeat “their wish to hold a discussion in the College before the Commission gives Parliament a final answer on Pieper’s appointment”.
Pieper left impression in personal selection interview
During the selection process, Pieper reportedly performed worse than other applicants in the first tests as part of an assessment center. Around 25 applicants were still involved in this phase of the selection process. A “shortlist” was then drawn up of the applicants who were shortlisted. These candidates had to undergo selection interviews in front of panels of high-ranking Commission representatives.
Pieper was interviewed by Björn Seibert, head of von der Leyen’s cabinet, Budget Commissioner Hahn and Industry Commissioner Breton. In this decisive round, Pieper had a majority: Seibert and Hahn spoke out in favor, Breton against Pieper.
Pieper’s expertise in the field of SMEs is documented: in 2021, he was awarded the Federal Cross of Merit in the European Parliament. In her laudatory speech, Katarina Barley (SPD), one of 14 Vice-Presidents of the Parliament, specifically highlighted Pieper’s services to small and medium-sized enterprises.
Parliamentarians are still waiting for an answer
In the meantime, the MEPs who initially criticized Pieper’s appointment have still not received an answer to their questions to the Commission. According to reports from the Commission, coordination between the responsible cabinets of Budget Commissioner Hahn and Industry Commissioner Breton is still ongoing.
A reprimand for Pieper’s appointment will be put to the vote in plenary on Thursday as part of the discharge to the Commission for 2022. The report calls on the Commission to “rectify the situation by reversing the appointment and launching a truly transparent and open procedure for the selection of the EU SME Envoy”. A majority is expected.
However, this will not change Pieper’s decision: On April 16, he will take up his post as SME Commissioner in the Commission. tho/mgr
Europäisches Parlament
Land Act likely to clear next hurdle
The EU Parliament will vote on the proposed soil monitoring law on Wednesday. While the German Farmers’ Association (DBV)fears new bureaucratic burdens and is against the law, MEPs are expected to vote in favor of it. The directive is not considered to be politically explosive, even the Agriculture Committee supports it.
This is probably due to the fact that the Brussels authority presented a much less ambitious text than intended from the outset: instead of a “soil protection law”, it presenteda “soil monitoring law”.
DBV fears ‘double regulations’
Instead of obliging the member states to improve soil conditions, the text merely aims to create a uniform EU-wide system for monitoring soil conditions. “It is a law of the lowest common denominator“, says Maximilian Meister, agricultural policy officer at the German Nature and Biodiversity Conservation Union (NABU). Nevertheless, it is good that the issue is being addressed under EU law for the first time.
The DBV, on the other hand, fears new restrictions on farming. In a recently published position paper on relieving the burden on agriculture, the association calls for the law to be “dispensed with” as it contains “extensive bureaucratic requirements”. The association also criticizes “duplicate regulations” because the new directive overlaps with existing national and European technical and environmental legislation.
No binding steps against soil sealing
Meister, on the other hand, assumes that the law will not cause any additional work for farmers. According to the current status, farmers will only be directly affected in two areas: by the definition of threshold values for residues of some particularly hazardous pesticides in the soil and by the fact that advisory services on soil-conserving forms of cultivation are to be created.
The DBV and NABU agree on one point: the law does too little to combat soil sealing. “In Germany, around 55 hectares per dayare still being used forsettlements, industrial estates and roads and are being permanently lost to nature and food production”, emphasized DBV President Joachim Rukwied last year after the proposal was presented. Meister also regrets that it does notcontain a binding instrument to tackle this.
If Parliament adopts its negotiating position, it is the turn of the Council of Ministers: The member states must reach an agreement among themselves, after which the Council and Parliament negotiate with each other. The legislative process will therefore continue after the EU elections. jd
Europäisches Parlament
Dessert
Bedbugs – unfortunately not a propaganda lie
Looks cozy. But as soon as the light goes out, bedbugs could attack.
Again and again, it is said that it was the Russians: They had spread the lie that France’s hotels were suffering from a massive infestation of the dreaded bedbugs. They allegedly spread the story via social media to damage France. According to the alleged motivation for Moscow’s hybrid warfare, fewer tourists would then travel to the Seine for the Olympic Games out of fear of the bloodsuckers.
Bedbugs in the EU – just a propaganda tale? The writer of these lines wishes it were. Then he wouldn’t have had certain experiences during ten overnight stays in four different establishments over the past eight months.
Perhaps the Russians have exaggerated the issue. But my personal experience is that the bedbugs are there, and unfortunately not in short supply. “Punaises de lits” can be found in Brussels hotels. They can be found in apartments that are rented out to MEPs, staff and journalists during the Strasbourg session week. They can also be found in Parisian hotels and in hostels on the Camino de Santiago in Spain. Whether there are bedbugs or not is not a question of budget. It is a question of probability.
Bugs travel with you in your luggage
To dispel another myth: The bloodsuckers don’t sit in mattresses. Rather, they come out of the cracks in beds and sofas, rappel down from the ceiling and get to work as soon as the light is switched off. A flea travels with its host, a bug lurks on the spot. Unless it decides to move on. To do this, it crawls into suitcases or other pieces of luggage and travels with you. Hence the tip: Never put your luggage on the bed.
Anyone who comes home with bites after a night of bedbugs usually wants it to be a one-off experience. The most reliable protection against bedbugs is a specially trained dog. As a certified bed bug sniffer dog – Rottweilers are particularly suitable – is rarely available, the only option is usually hope. Or the famous chemical club. mgr
It is supposed to be the crowning glory of this legislative period: Today, the European Parliament is voting on the legislative package on asylum and migration policy. After years of hesitation and wrangling, the so-called CEAS reform is intended to create a uniform, efficient and (to a certain extent) solidarity-based asylum policy in the EU – just in time for the European elections.
But shortly before the final vote in the Brussels mini-plenary, unrest is spreading. The French Socialists, the German Greens and some Liberals and Conservatives do notwant to agree to at least parts of the reform. For some it goes too far, for others not far enough.
The rapporteurs fear that the legislative package could be split up. This would jeopardizethefragile balance between repressive and liberal measures. However, the package already looks half-baked. The individual right to asylum is being restricted and even families with children are facing hardship. In contrast, the new solidarity mechanism, which is intended to ensure a fairer distribution of immigrants among EU countries, seems like little consolation.
Some countries have already pulled out. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, for example, has announced that he will not take partin the redistribution. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is going even further – she wants to send asylum seekers to Albania without further ado.
This is difficult to reconcile with the GEAS reform. The amendment is being undermined even before it has been passed. The asylum debate is likely to continueeven after the vote.
European economic policy suffers from a central contradiction. On the one hand, the need for investment is increasing massively across the continent if the EU’s political goals are to be achieved. On the other hand, the EU’s current budget policy is leading to a reduction in public resources.
Estimates vary, but it is clear that achieving the climate targets alone will require additional investment of several hundred billion per year. In addition, the digital infrastructure needs to be expanded and defense spending is skyrocketing. This week, Ministers Habeck, Le Maire and Urso called for more funding for industrial policy. The European Roundtable of Industry then announced that additional investment of 800 billion euros would be required for the energy infrastructure alone by 2030.
At the same time, European budget policy at EU and national level calls for savings in the medium term.
Next Generation EU expires
The Next Generation EU (NGEU) pandemic rescue fund expires in 2026. If it is not replaced, the EU states will therefore have significantly fewer funds available from 2027. According to Sander Tordoir, Senior Economist at the Centre for European Reform (CER), the EU cohesion funds could provide a kind of cushion to absorb the impact.
During the current financial framework, the Member States have only tapped into a small part of the cohesion funds to which they are entitled. While the NGEU funds have to be spent quickly, cohesion funds can be used up to three years after the end of the financial framework. Tordoir therefore does not expect the EU to fall over a kind of fiscal cliff any time soon. Instead, a “financial crash in slow motion” is looming.
In addition, the debt incurred for NGEU must be repaid from 2027. Originally, new EU resources were to be created for this, but little has happened so far. So either the repayment will be made at the expense of the future EU budget or the repayment will have to be financed from national budgets.
EU debt rules put national budgets under pressure
However, national budgets are coming under pressure even earlier. The EU debt rules have been in force again since this year. But they are not being adhered to. This year, the EU will probably initiate an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against more than half of all member states. This includes large member states such as France, Italy, Spain and Poland.
In theory, this means that the member states will have to reduce their structural deficit from 2025. Whether they will do so is another question. Shortly before Easter, the French government presented a higher deficit than expected for 2023: 5.6 percent of GDP.
Right-wing extremists in France benefit from austerity policy
“Any adjustment of the structural deficit is associated with high domestic political risks for Macron”, says Shahin Vallée, Senior Research Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations. He fears that an austerity policy or a tax increase would cause severe political damage to Macron, from which the far right would benefit. “The new EU debt rules, as recently agreed, are not up to the task”, says Vallée.
Zsolt Darvas, Senior Fellow at the Brussels think tank Bruegel, also points out that reducing structural deficits will be “extremely difficult” to implement for political economy reasons. Past experience has shown that governments often cut investment budgets first when cutting budgets because this is politically easier to implement than structural adjustments.
Showdown will take place in 2027 at the latest
Over the course of the coming year, it will become clear how seriously countries such as France and Italy take compliance with the debt rules. This is also likely to influence the discussion during the elections in Germany in 2025. In addition, the Commission will then launch the discussion on the new multiannual financial framework from 2028 to 2034.
An extension of the current Next Generation EU program is likely to be discussed in 2026, which would take some of the pressure off in the meantime. However, the showdown is expected to take place the following year. A decision on the new multiannual financial framework must be made by December 2027 at the latest – and therefore it must also be clear how NGEU is to be repaid. In addition, a transitional provision in the new EU debt rules, which protects state budgets from increased interest costs, will also expire in 2027. This means that pressure will also increase at member state budget level.
Thinking EU budget and debt rules together
According to Vallée, when the EU Commission proposed the new debt rules in 2023, it made the mistake of not linking the new debt rules to a permanent borrowing capacity at EU level. Tordoir also wrote in a 2023 paper that the EU budget should have been linked to the new debt rules. This would protect investment budgets while providing an incentive to get national budgets in order.
It is impossible to predict whether the EU debt rules will be reformed again in 2027. But even a new reform of the debt rules would not solve the problem because many countries simply lack the fiscal firepower. A discussion about a relaunch of NGEU or a similar instrument therefore seems unavoidable if the EU’s investment needs are to be roughly covered.
Integration of the ESM into the EU
“The best thing would be to commit to new joint borrowing for climate and defense spending right now“, says Vallée. This does not have to look exactly like Next Generation EU, but could also work, for example, by integrating the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) into the EU. This currently exists outside the EU institutions and can raise up to €500 billion on the financial markets.
For Zsolt Darvas from Bruegel, it is also clear that a new, NGEU-like program is unavoidable if investment needs are to be met. “The way the fund is currently structured, it can also be used to circumvent national debt rules”, he says. This would also allow Germany to invest more while complying with its debt brake.
Elections in Germany decisive
Commissioners Paolo Gentiloni and Thierry Breton are already repeatedly campaigning for a relaunch of NGEU. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Emmanuel Macron have also spoken out in favor of joint borrowing to finance the defense capacities of the EU and Ukraine – so far without success.
The idea has met with resistance in key member states, particularly in Germany and the Netherlands. Above all, the elections in Germany in 2025 and the plans of the successor government will be decisive in the decision for or against a relaunch of NGEU. For those in favor of a relaunch, the challenge will be to appease Germany’s mistrust.
The dilemma is that mistrust in Berlin continues to grow when countries such as France or Italy disregard the debt rules. But if these countries adhered to the debt rules, they face the threat of political instability.
Debt
Debt brake
EU-Schuldenregeln
Fiscal policy
Investments
NextGenerationEU
European Court of Human Rights: state duty to climate action
This could be a groundbreaking ruling for the climate policies of European states and for further climate lawsuits: The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) recognized in its ruling on Tuesday that climate change threatens human rights – and inadequate climate action jeopardizes them. It ruled in favor of a lawsuit by Swiss citizens against their country’s policies but rejected further lawsuits.
Because states are obligated to protect the fundamental rights of their citizens, a state duty to climate action can be derived from this.
The European Convention on Human Rights includes in Article 8, which regulates the right to respect for private and family life, “a right to effective protection by state authorities against the serious harmful aspects of climate change on life, health, well-being, and quality of life”. Therefore, climate action is a human right under the Convention.
Human-induced climate change is a fact and a threat to human rights under the Convention. States are aware of this and can take measures against it.
States party to the Convention are also obliged under Article 8 to design and implement rules and measures against it. Switzerland has shown gaps in “quantifying the limitation of greenhouse gas emissions, through a CO2 budget or otherwise”.
Switzerland violated the plaintiffs’ right to a fair trial (Article 6) because an authority and two courts “rejected their claim on the basis of inadequate and insufficient consideration”.
The plaintiffs were not granted the status of individual victims. Under the Convention, there is usually no right to a “class action” where groups of non-victims can go to court. However, because climate change “is a matter of general interest to humanity and intergenerational burden-sharing should be advanced,” the Court found it “appropriate to grant associations the right in the context of climate change“.
Signaling effect for courts throughout Europe
The Court criticizes Switzerland for lacking a CO2 budget or clear limits. However, Switzerland’s Climate Change Act from last year does indeed prescribe such reduction targets for 2040 (minus 75 percent) and 2050 (net zero) – and formulates average values for the years and sectors in between. There is also the possibility to credit negative emissions. Apparently, the law came too late for the court that was previously negotiated – and it only sets the limits from 2030 onwards.
It was the first climate lawsuit ever heard before the ECHR. Formally, the judgment initially binds only Switzerland. But it is likely to have a signaling effect on courts throughout Europe. The ECHR is part of the Council of Europe and is responsible for ensuring compliance with the European Convention on Human Rights, making its judgments relevant to all member states of the Council of Europe.
The Swiss senior citizens had sued the Swiss state because it was not doing enough to combat global warming. Due to their age, they are particularly affected by the health impacts of climate change.
Two other lawsuits dismissed
However, the ECHR dismissed two other climate lawsuits. Damien Carême, a Green European politician who felt his human rights were affected by rising sea levels, was not personally affected by the effects of climate change. Therefore, his lawsuit was inadmissible. The man no longer lives in his original hometown on the English Channel.
A group of Portuguese youth and young adults who had sued all member states of the Council of Europe were also dismissed. Their right to sue was limited to their home state of Portugal, the court ruled – and there, they should have exhausted the legal process before turning to the ECHR.
“This decision is definitely a turning point,” says Corina Heri, human rights expert at the University of Zurich, to Table.Briefings. It means “the impacts of global warming on people do fall under human rights, and confirms that these cases can be brought before the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg.”
The admission of the lawsuit by the association shows that the court signals a preference for bundled climate cases, Heri continues. With its decision, the ECHR has paved the way for future climate lawsuits in Europe: First, go to the national court and file a lawsuit as an organization, Heri explained.
SVP calls for withdrawal from Council of Europe
The Swiss government party, the SVP, reacted angrily to the ruling. “Ideology and denial of reality reign in the European court palaces,” the party said. It is a “brazen interference in Swiss politics,” which is unacceptable for a sovereign country. Therefore, the SVP is calling for Switzerland’s withdrawal from the Council of Europe.
Climate & Environment
Climate complaints
Human Rights
Switzerland
News
Clean Transition: Šefčovič wants comment box for the industry
Companies from green industries should be able to report obstacles in the European single market to EU authorities more easily in the future. The Commission will set up its own platform to make it easier to identify obstacles – “especially those that hinder the spread of clean technologies”. This is stated in the report on the Clean Transition Dialogues with industry, which Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič intends to present on Wednesday and which is available to Table.Briefings in draft form.
According to the draft, the platform will be based on the EU administration portal Your Europe and the Single Market Obstacle Tool (SMOT) analysis tool. Companies can already use Your Europe to report problems that they have experienced in their own or another EU country and that relate to national or European law or the national implementation of EU law.
Hydrogen Europe praises ‘Implementovič’
The Clean Transition Dialogues are based on an initiative by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen from her State of the Union speech last year. Since October, dialogues have been held on hydrogen, energy-intensive industries and net-zero sectors, among others.
The proposals were welcomed by the hydrogen association Hydrogen Europe. “Šefčovič has an apt nickname in Brussels: Implementovič“, said CEO Jorgo Chatzimarkakis. “After the presidential elections in Slovakia, it is very likely that he could return to Brussels as Slovakian Commissioner and it would be of utmost importance that he can continue his effective work to develop European competitiveness in the cleantech sector.” ber/tho
European Council calls for ‘competitiveness deal’
The EU heads of state and government want to adopt a competitiveness agenda at next week’s special summit. Geopolitical tensions and in particular the subsidy policies of other countries have “exposed the Union’s vulnerabilities, while long-term productivity and technological and demographic trends require urgent policy adjustments”, according to a draft of the final declaration, which is available to Table.Briefings. A “European competitiveness deal” is needed to catch up with the EU in terms of growth, productivity and innovation.
The EU Commission is to develop a new, horizontal single market strategy by June 2025. In the draft conclusions, the heads of state and government commit to removing barriers in the single market. This applies “in particular in relation to the cross-border provision of services and capital, and by fully implementing free movement rules“.
However, the member states have shown little willingness in recent years to remove legal and bureaucratic hurdles for service providers and workers from other EU states. Former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta is to present a report on how the single market can be deepened before the summit next Wednesday and Thursday. The President of the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris will be a guest of the College of EU Commissioners on Wednesday. According to reports, he has not yet completed his report.
Progress on capital markets union
According to the draft, the EU heads of state and government also want to make progress on the Capital Markets Union. They want to harmonize insolvency law and corporate taxation, which has so far proved extremely difficult due to national resistance. The demands regarding the securitization market, which the heads of state want to boost by adapting banking regulation, could be more promising. This was also one of the demands of the Eurogroup when it presented its roadmap for the Capital Markets Union in March.
The draft conclusion takes a relevant step concerning market supervision. Until now, some governments – including the German government – have resisted centralization. The draft now states that the European supervisory authorities should be enabled to “supervise the most systemic relevant cross border capital and financial market actors”. If this text is confirmed by the heads of government next week, it would be a signal that they are now serious about the Capital Markets Union. At the end of March, Scholz said that Germany would also have to jump over a few hurdles here.
On Tuesday, the structure of the strategic agenda that Council President Charles Michel has drawn up for the next legislative period also became known. The document, which was published by our friends from Contexte, lists the general topics that the heads of state and government have identified. tho/jaa
Europäischer Rat
Industrial policy
Industriepolitik
Technology
Trade
EU Commission launches investigation against Chinese wind power manufacturers
The EU Commission is scrutinizing subsidies to Chinese suppliers of wind farms for Europe. EU Commissioner Margrethe Vestager stated on Tuesday that the Brussels authority would examinethe conditions for the development of wind farms in Spain, Greece, France, Romania and Bulgaria. She did not name the companies concerned.
These steps were necessary “before it is too late,” Vestager said in a speech at Princeton University. “We cannot afford to watch what happened with solar panels happen again with electric vehicles, wind power or important chips.”
She wanted to make it clear that China’s success should not be restricted, said Vestager. The steps should “restore fairness in our economic relations.” She added: “Everyone is welcome to be successful. Everyone is welcome to trade with Europe. But they have to play by the rules.”
China’s wind turbine manufacturers are still relatively new to business in Europe. In 2022, the company Mingyang Smart Energy equipped the 30-megawatt Beleolico offshore wind farm off southern Italy. It was the first offshore wind farm in Europe with turbines from China. Since then, companies from the Far East have been gradually getting their foot in the door.
Ursula von der Leyen expressed a similar view to Vestager. Dealing with China requires a clear and open approach, said the EU Commission President on Tuesday in Berlin referring to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s upcoming trip to the People’s Republic.
She said the principle should be reducing risks without decoupling from China. Unfair competitive conditions, overcapacities in China and subsidies for its companies must be addressed. “We want equally good access to the Chinese market,” von der Leyen said. “If this is not the case, we must take action.”
EU regulation on foreign subsidies
Last week, the EU Commission had already launched an investigation into whether Chinese bidders in a public tender for a solar park in Romania had benefited excessively from state subsidies in their bids. The Chinese bidder in question, CRRC Qingdao Sifang Locomotive, recently responded to the launch of a similar investigation into foreign state subsidies in a railroad project in Bulgaria by withdrawing from the tender.
All of these investigations are being carried out under the EU’s Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR), which is due to come into force in 2023. Wang Lutong, the director general responsible for Europe at the Chinese Foreign Ministry, criticized the announcement. He called on Brussels “not to use the FSR as a tool for protectionism and economic coercion and to stop interfering with normal business operations,” Wang wrote on X. ari
Chips
EU
Subsidies
Wind power
Von der Leyen raises Pieper case in Commission meeting
The appointment of Markus Pieper (CDU) as the Commission’s SME Envoy will be discussed at the Commission meeting on Wednesday. Under the agenda item “Any other business”, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will comment on the criticism of four Commissioners.
At the end of March, Foreign Affairs Commissioner Josep Borrell, Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, Social Affairs Commissioner Nicolas Schmit and Finance Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni called on von der Leyen to put the issue back on the agenda. The background to this was critical questions from Parliament. It is expected that von der Leyen will defend the appeal procedure.
Members of Parliament from the Social Democrats, Greens, Liberals and Left had raised the question of whether von der Leyen had appointed a party colleague even though he had performed worse in the application process than his two main rivals, Martina Dlabajová from the Czech Republic and Anna Stellinger from Sweden.
Budget Commissioner defends decision
The Commissioner for Budget and Personnel, Johannes Hahn, had already replied to the four commissioners on Monday. The letter, which is available to Table.Briefings, states:
“All three shortlisted candidates were interviewed and considered generally qualified for the post. As you are well aware, gender and geographical balance are general policy considerations, but do not replace merit as the primary criterion. Within the usual margin of discretion for such senior appointments, Mr Pieper was proposed to the College for endorsement based on his vast experience and track record in the field of SMEs, also outlined at the College meeting without any further points raised.”
In their reply, the four commissioners criticize the fact that it was not von der Leyen who answered them, but Hahn. They are not satisfied with his answer either. Instead, they repeat “their wish to hold a discussion in the College before the Commission gives Parliament a final answer on Pieper’s appointment”.
Pieper left impression in personal selection interview
During the selection process, Pieper reportedly performed worse than other applicants in the first tests as part of an assessment center. Around 25 applicants were still involved in this phase of the selection process. A “shortlist” was then drawn up of the applicants who were shortlisted. These candidates had to undergo selection interviews in front of panels of high-ranking Commission representatives.
Pieper was interviewed by Björn Seibert, head of von der Leyen’s cabinet, Budget Commissioner Hahn and Industry Commissioner Breton. In this decisive round, Pieper had a majority: Seibert and Hahn spoke out in favor, Breton against Pieper.
Pieper’s expertise in the field of SMEs is documented: in 2021, he was awarded the Federal Cross of Merit in the European Parliament. In her laudatory speech, Katarina Barley (SPD), one of 14 Vice-Presidents of the Parliament, specifically highlighted Pieper’s services to small and medium-sized enterprises.
Parliamentarians are still waiting for an answer
In the meantime, the MEPs who initially criticized Pieper’s appointment have still not received an answer to their questions to the Commission. According to reports from the Commission, coordination between the responsible cabinets of Budget Commissioner Hahn and Industry Commissioner Breton is still ongoing.
A reprimand for Pieper’s appointment will be put to the vote in plenary on Thursday as part of the discharge to the Commission for 2022. The report calls on the Commission to “rectify the situation by reversing the appointment and launching a truly transparent and open procedure for the selection of the EU SME Envoy”. A majority is expected.
However, this will not change Pieper’s decision: On April 16, he will take up his post as SME Commissioner in the Commission. tho/mgr
Europäisches Parlament
Land Act likely to clear next hurdle
The EU Parliament will vote on the proposed soil monitoring law on Wednesday. While the German Farmers’ Association (DBV)fears new bureaucratic burdens and is against the law, MEPs are expected to vote in favor of it. The directive is not considered to be politically explosive, even the Agriculture Committee supports it.
This is probably due to the fact that the Brussels authority presented a much less ambitious text than intended from the outset: instead of a “soil protection law”, it presenteda “soil monitoring law”.
DBV fears ‘double regulations’
Instead of obliging the member states to improve soil conditions, the text merely aims to create a uniform EU-wide system for monitoring soil conditions. “It is a law of the lowest common denominator“, says Maximilian Meister, agricultural policy officer at the German Nature and Biodiversity Conservation Union (NABU). Nevertheless, it is good that the issue is being addressed under EU law for the first time.
The DBV, on the other hand, fears new restrictions on farming. In a recently published position paper on relieving the burden on agriculture, the association calls for the law to be “dispensed with” as it contains “extensive bureaucratic requirements”. The association also criticizes “duplicate regulations” because the new directive overlaps with existing national and European technical and environmental legislation.
No binding steps against soil sealing
Meister, on the other hand, assumes that the law will not cause any additional work for farmers. According to the current status, farmers will only be directly affected in two areas: by the definition of threshold values for residues of some particularly hazardous pesticides in the soil and by the fact that advisory services on soil-conserving forms of cultivation are to be created.
The DBV and NABU agree on one point: the law does too little to combat soil sealing. “In Germany, around 55 hectares per dayare still being used forsettlements, industrial estates and roads and are being permanently lost to nature and food production”, emphasized DBV President Joachim Rukwied last year after the proposal was presented. Meister also regrets that it does notcontain a binding instrument to tackle this.
If Parliament adopts its negotiating position, it is the turn of the Council of Ministers: The member states must reach an agreement among themselves, after which the Council and Parliament negotiate with each other. The legislative process will therefore continue after the EU elections. jd
Europäisches Parlament
Dessert
Bedbugs – unfortunately not a propaganda lie
Looks cozy. But as soon as the light goes out, bedbugs could attack.
Again and again, it is said that it was the Russians: They had spread the lie that France’s hotels were suffering from a massive infestation of the dreaded bedbugs. They allegedly spread the story via social media to damage France. According to the alleged motivation for Moscow’s hybrid warfare, fewer tourists would then travel to the Seine for the Olympic Games out of fear of the bloodsuckers.
Bedbugs in the EU – just a propaganda tale? The writer of these lines wishes it were. Then he wouldn’t have had certain experiences during ten overnight stays in four different establishments over the past eight months.
Perhaps the Russians have exaggerated the issue. But my personal experience is that the bedbugs are there, and unfortunately not in short supply. “Punaises de lits” can be found in Brussels hotels. They can be found in apartments that are rented out to MEPs, staff and journalists during the Strasbourg session week. They can also be found in Parisian hotels and in hostels on the Camino de Santiago in Spain. Whether there are bedbugs or not is not a question of budget. It is a question of probability.
Bugs travel with you in your luggage
To dispel another myth: The bloodsuckers don’t sit in mattresses. Rather, they come out of the cracks in beds and sofas, rappel down from the ceiling and get to work as soon as the light is switched off. A flea travels with its host, a bug lurks on the spot. Unless it decides to move on. To do this, it crawls into suitcases or other pieces of luggage and travels with you. Hence the tip: Never put your luggage on the bed.
Anyone who comes home with bites after a night of bedbugs usually wants it to be a one-off experience. The most reliable protection against bedbugs is a specially trained dog. As a certified bed bug sniffer dog – Rottweilers are particularly suitable – is rarely available, the only option is usually hope. Or the famous chemical club. mgr
