Dear reader,
A specter has returned to the economic policy debate. Some in the EU Commission apparently want to cap the high energy prices by law, or at least more and more associations are warning against this. Initially, it was the gas industry in agreement with the financial sector, but yesterday the electricity industry repeated its warning: when the Commission presents its action plan on affordable energy prices in just under two weeks, it should not include any new price caps. Investments and security of supply are at risk.
Commission Vice-President Teresa Ribera and her head of cabinet Miguel Gil Tertre are said to have ambitions for such price caps. The former chief economist of the Directorate-General for Energy had already co-written the energy chapter of the Draghi Report, which approves of limiting extreme prices in times of crisis. One argument in the Draghi Report: because the global gas supply was limited, high prices above a certain level during the crisis would no longer have resulted in additional imports into the EU.
However, there is another defensive battle behind the warnings from energy and trading companies. In line with the ECB and the financial regulator ESMA, the Draghi report denounces a high concentration in futures trading with energy derivatives. To date, energy companies have not been regulated as strictly as investment banks or funds. The Draghi report would like to abolish this exception.
So it will be interesting to see which side is really telling horror stories here.
Have a good rest of the week!
Feature
US Secretary of Defense Hegseth outlines Ukraine peace negotiations in Brussels
It was a day when events came thick and fast: On Wednesday lunchtime, the new US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth surprised everyone on the way to his first meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group with clear announcements about how the new administration envisions the terms of a deal in Ukraine. A few hours later, news broke at NATO headquarters that US President Donald Trump had spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone and agreed to start peace negotiations immediately.
It was striking that, unlike his predecessor, Pete Hegseth did not hold out the prospect of new arms aid on his arrival in order to put Ukraine in the best possible position for negotiations. Donald Trump‘s top priority is to stop the bloodshed, said the US Secretary of Defense. A “realistic assessment” of the situation on the battlefield was a prerequisite for success at the negotiating table. The USA is in favor of a prosperous and sovereign Ukraine. However, a return to the pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic goal. Those who cling to this illusion are only prolonging the war.
Renouncing Crimea and Donbas?
According to this interpretation, Ukraine would have to give up Crimea and parts of Donbas. A position that is clearly at odds with what the European allies have so far at least publicly supported. What Donald Trump’s Secretary of Defense said about the further contours of a deal is also likely to be difficult for the Europeans to digest. Robust security guarantees are needed to prevent the war from flaring up again, said Pete Hegseth. There should be no “Minsk 3”.
However, the USA does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic prospect and cannot be part of a peace solution. Security guarantees would also have to be provided by “European and non-European troops”. Hegseth ruled out the possibility of the USA contributing soldiers. The protection force would not be able to invoke Article 5 in the event of a Russian attack. Peacekeeping in Europe was the task of the European members of NATO. In the future, the Europeans would also have to provide the majority of weapons and financial support for Ukraine.
Five percent defense spending
The Europeans need to ramp up their arms production and increase defense spending, said the US Secretary of Defense. And gave a foretaste of today’s discussions in the North Atlantic Council: He agreed with Donald Trump that five percent was necessary. Pete Hegseth recommended that European governments should come clean with their citizens about the threat situation. The “strategic reality” prevents the USA from focusing primarily on Europe’s security in the future.
The USA is confronted with threats on its own borders and from China in the Indo-Pacific. The European partners must now take over conventional security on their continent, said Hegseth, talking about a division of labor. In this way, the transatlantic relationship would also have a future for generations to come. The USA was committed to NATO, but would no longer accept an “unbalanced relationship that encourages dependency”.
Europeans surprised
At the Ukraine Contact Group meeting, the European allies seemed surprised by the agreement between Trump and Putin to start peace negotiations: “We have agreed that our respective teams will begin negotiations immediately,” Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social platform. He will now call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and inform him of the talks. The Europeans have previously insisted that there should be no deal without Ukraine or over the heads of the Ukrainians.
Before the news of the phone call made the rounds, various ministers reiterated the motto that Ukraine must continue to be supported in order to be able to negotiate from a position of strength. “We want to do everything we can to ensure that support continues,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on arrival. Pistorius had previously met his new US counterpart for bilateral talks. He said that the conversation was “very friendly, very open”. He was looking forward to working together.
Peace only with Ukraine
Peace can only be achieved with Ukraine and the Europeans, said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in Paris on Wednesday. Peace will only succeed if Ukraine has the best possible negotiating position, in particular an ironclad and long-term security perspective: “We must be able to count on our American friends for this,” said Baerbock.
Other European counterparts expressed similar views. Baerbock is consulting with her colleagues from Spain, Italy, France and Poland in Paris on how to deal with the new US administration before they meet in Munich at the weekend. The main issue is how to secure support for Ukraine. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister will also be present at parts of the talks.
NDCs: Why the UN is unofficially extending the deadline for climate plans
Nine months before the COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the serious struggle for the outcome of this conference on financing and national climate plans has begun. While only just over a dozen of the almost 200 countries had submitted their plans by the UN deadline for submitting new national climate plans (NDCs) on Feb. 10, the responsible authority, the UN Climate Change (UNFCCC), has informally extended this deadline until September – and is relying on aggressive optimism. Experts expect that important decisions on the NDCs will not be made until summer 2025.
All UN member states were supposed to submit their NDCs for the period from 2030 to 2035 by Feb. 10 – nine months before the start of COP30. According to the UN, 13 countries have done so so far (as of Feb. 9). Among them are only the USA and Brazil as heavyweights and only the UK as an exemplary country for the 1.5-degree pathway – and the USA’s NDC is practically worthless for US federal policy after President Donald Trump took office.
So far: 13 countries, 17 percent of emissions
Only 17 percent of all emissions and eight percent of the world’s population have punctual 2035 plans. “So far, governments have not delivered on what they promised ten years ago [when the Paris Agreement was signed, editor’s note],” criticizes Bill Hare from Climate Action Tracker (CAT), “to put the world on a path to 1.5 degrees at the required pace.” A tightening of the 2030 NDCs is also necessary, but so far none of the countries have provided for this.
The reluctance of countries to act has to do with the overall geopolitical situation. This has also clouded over considerably when it comes to climate action:
- The USA under Trump wants to leave the Paris Agreement. The Trump administration is attacking and cutting funding for US authorities and research institutes, which is also damaging international climate cooperation. The end for US development aid USAID also affects the financing of climate aid.
- A growing number of EU member states are calling on the European Commission to introduce rules to roll back or delay the Green Deal, for example with regard to CO2 fleet limits for cars.
- Uncertainties about possible trade wars are also affecting trade in climate action goods.
- Until COP30, Azerbaijan is officially leading the negotiations as the UNFCCC presidency. At COP29 in Baku, the negotiating leadership showed itself to be unwilling, overwhelmed and aggressive on many issues.
- A financial roadmap for achieving the goals agreed in Baku (aid from industrialized countries of USD 300 billion a year from 2035, USD 1.3 trillion investment in total) is not yet in sight and is not due to be published until the end of the year as the “Road Baku to Belém”.
Stiell: Climate plans out of self-interest
Despite these uncertainties, Simon Stiell, Executive Director of UN Climate Change, is optimistic: ten years after the Paris Agreement, the expected global warming has fallen from five to around three degrees, even if this is still “dangerously high”. Stiell sees the triumph of renewables as unstoppable – and warns the USA that anyone who pulls out now risks economic losses compared to their competitors: “One country may take a step backwards,” said Stiell, “but others will take its place to seize this opportunity.” According to Stiell, more and more countries and companies are recognizing that it is in their own interest to act on climate action.
Good NDCs are more important to the UN than quick climate targets. After all, the original idea in the Paris Agreement was to present the NDCs nine months before they were adopted at COP30: The countries could then revise and improve them. However, this is unlikely to happen anyway. This is another reason why Stiell is practically extending the deadline for the NDCs by six months: “The Secretariat needs them on its desk by September at the latest in order to finalize the synthesis report.”
There are good reasons for restraint
In this report, the authority summarizes the collective climate impact that will result from the national NDCs – and came to the sobering conclusion in 2024 that the NDCs would only lead to a 2.6% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 compared to 2019. According to the IPCC, it is clear that global emissions must be halved by 2030 in order to comply with the 1.5° limit.
There are reasons why many countries are reluctant to set ambitious climate targets:
- The EU is barely able to act on climate policy due to political crises in France and Germany. The Polish Council Presidency does not want to use a new EU climate target of minus 90 percent by 2040 as an argument for the right-wing populist opposition in the presidential election campaign. And more and more countries with conservative governments are resisting the Commission’s Green Deal.
- China will certainly wait and see how the US positions itself on climate and trade issues under Trump before it submits its NDC, says Li Shuo, an expert at the Washington-based think tank Asia Society. China is also likely to let the EU take the lead with its NDC. And it is unclear what closer cooperation between China and the EU on climate policy, which is being called for by semi-officials in China, might look like.
- Many developing countries, especially in Africa, specify two possible development paths for emissions reduction and green transition in their NDCs: One path exclusively with their own resources and one with significant financial and technical support from industrialized countries. Many NDCs are “conditioned” in this way. Given the uncertainty about climate financing, they hold back their plans for as long as possible.
Petter Lydén from Germanwatch also emphasizes that the quality of the NDCs is more important than the timetable. According to the COP28 resolution, the NDCs for 2035 should for the first time, as agreed in the Paris Agreement, describe the restructuring of the entire economy as uniformly and comprehensively as possible as a consequence of the global stocktake. “The NDCs must describe how the economic reality will change. Those who do not make such long-term investment plans will be left behind. We are currently seeing this in the German automotive industry, for example,” says Lydén.
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News
EU trade ministers in favor of de-escalation of Trump’s tariff threats
On Wednesday afternoon, the EU trade ministers discussed how the EU should respond to US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. The representatives of all member states spoke out in favor of remaining united at the trade ministers’ video conference, which was scheduled at short notice, an EU diplomat said after the meeting. “The EU is determined to react decisively”, he added. However, the goal is de-escalation.
Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič reported in the video conference on his talks with the new US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick. He announced a revision of US trade policy that goes beyond the announced steel and aluminum tariffs, according to an EU diplomat. Šefčovič saw himself supported by the Council in his efforts to work constructively with the US, but at the same time to react decisively to US measures. He had held out the prospect to the US Secretary of Commerce that the EU would help in dealing with global overcapacity.
On Wednesday morning, the Permanent Representatives in Brussels also exchanged views on the matter. Trump announced on Monday that the USA would impose tariffs of 25 percent on steel and aluminum from March 12. In parallel to the political consultations, the member states are also coordinating at a technical level. On Feb. 20, the working group in the Trade Council is expected to deal with the impending US tariffs. jaa
- Donald Trump
- EU
- Exports
- Steel
- Trade dispute
- Trade policy
Coalition negotiations in Austria failed
The coalition negotiations between the conservative ÖVP and the right-wing populist FPÖ in Austria have failed. FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl informed Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen that the talks had been broken off and returned the order to form a government, as his party announced. If an agreement had been reached, Kickl would have been the first chancellor from the ranks of the right-wing populists.
Following the failure of the coalition talks, Federal President Van der Bellen announced that he would meet with the party representatives and sound out which options would lead out of the political impasse. He urged the politicians to finally approach each other again. “Compromise has fallen into disrepute,” said the head of state. But without this “Austrian recipe for success”, it would not work.
Van der Bellen listed several possible options as solutions to the current situation: New elections in a few months, a new minority government with the acquiescence of parliament, or a government of experts. He also did not rule out the possibility that parties could still agree on a viable coalition in a further attempt. The FPÖ won the parliamentary elections in the fall of 2024. dpa
Agriculture: What the Commission’s vision paper says
In its vision paper on agriculture announced for next week, the European Commission apparently outlines ideas for future EU agricultural subsidies. According to a preliminary summary available to Table.Briefings, the Commission wants to give the member states more leeway in the implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). At the same time, they are to be made more responsible for actually achieving the objectives of the CAP. This fits in with the Commission’s ideas for the new Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).
The CAP direct payments are to become more “targeted”, but still promote food supply as well as the competitiveness and sustainability of the sector. The Commission wants to examine whether, in the future, it should focus its funding on products that are important for the EU’s so-called strategic autonomy. This is likely to mean products that the EU cannot supply itself with, such as protein feed. Small and medium-sized enterprises should benefit from simplified funding instruments.
In addition, the vision apparently addresses several issues that Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen has recently emphasized publicly. For example, “reciprocity” in international trade – i.e. applying domestic standards increasingly to imports. Strengthening farmers in the supply chain is also to be addressed again. Hansen had already made proposals on this shortly after taking office. The draft for the vision paper is currently still being coordinated within the Commission. jd
Auto dialog: Climate Commissioner Hoekstra listens to opinions on Clean Transition
In the first working session of the auto dialog, Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra spoke with 19 participants about clean transformation and decarbonization. Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall was also present at the two-hour meeting. Industry representatives Sigrid de Vries (ACEA) and Benjamin Krieger (CLEPA) pointed out the difficult economic situation. They made it clear that the fines would have to be averted and the review of the CO2 fleet regulation brought forward, and that the electrification targets could not be met.
However, they were in a lonely position: the representatives of consumer protection organizations, NGOs, trade unions, and the charging infrastructure, on the other hand, made it clear that the objectives of the regulation were achievable. They argued that nothing should be changed in the regulation. Instead, they called for incentive programs for the purchase of EVs, mandatory requirements for CO2-free company car fleets, and further efforts to expand the charging infrastructure.
Hoekstra has reportedly not revealed what the Commission is planning. He has also not made it clear whether he intends to invite the participants to a second round. As part of the auto dialog, the first working session on jobs in industry is taking place today under the leadership of Social Affairs Commissioner Roxana Mînzatu. mgr
- E-Autos
- Europäische Kommission
Cutting red tape: Commission presents new approaches
The EU Commission wants to reduce the bureaucratic burden on business by reforming its own procedures and engaging more closely with stakeholders. “European companies should spend much less time and resources on complying with bureaucratic regulations,” said the responsible EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis at the presentation of the plans. To this end, the authority also wants to change the way it works so that the regulatory proposals are as simple and cost-efficient as possible.
Dombrovskis emphasized that the Commission remains committed to its political goals, such as climate neutrality by 2050. The EU had gone through a “period of intensive regulatory activity” in recent years. The task now is to examine how the green and digital transformation can be driven forward as efficiently as possible. To this end, the Commission will present an initial simplification proposal “in the coming weeks”.
The so-called omnibus law is currently scheduled for Feb. 26. Dombrovskis said that he was already in intensive discussions with MEPs on this. The Commission is counting on Parliament and the Council to prioritize the simplification proposals.
Consistent SME tests for new laws
The declared aim of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is to reduce the administrative burden for companies by at least 25 percent and for SMEs by at least 35 percent. As previously reported by Europe.Table, the Commission’s communication on simplification includes the following points:
- Before proposing new laws, the Commission wants to subject them to an SME and a competitiveness check.
- The Commission’s Directorates-General are to screen the entire body of EU legislation in order to identify the cumulative impact of directives and regulations on companies.
- Following the example of the practical checks in Germany, the authority wants to work together with practitioners from companies to look for concrete simplifications, for example in approval procedures.
- The Commission wants to monitor the implementation of adopted laws more closely than before, through “implementation roadmaps” for the member states and implementation dialogues with stakeholders. tho
Work program 2025: Commission withdraws AI liability
In a surprise move, the Commission has withdrawn its proposal for a directive on the adaptation of non-contractual civil liability to artificial intelligence (AI Liability Directive). This emerges from the Commission’s work program for 2025, the final version of which was presented by the authority on Wednesday. In total, it withdrew 37 legislative proposals.
The decision to also withdraw the AI liability was apparently only made on Tuesday evening. It is possibly no coincidence that this happened after US Vice President JD Vance’s appearance at the AI Action Summit in Paris. There, Vance once again emphasized how little the US believes in regulating artificial intelligence.
No EU-wide harmonization
The decision also came as a surprise to the EU Parliament’s rapporteur Axel Voss (CDU). “This decision is a disaster for European companies and citizens alike,” criticized Voss. By abolishing it, the Commission is actively opting for legal uncertainty, a power imbalance between companies “and a Wild West approach to AI liability that only benefits Big Tech”. He fears that liability will now be governed by 27 different and outdated legal systems.
Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič justified the deletion by stating that the AI liability presented in 2022 had not progressed in the co-decision procedure. The co-legislators would have the opportunity to raise an objection.
In the final version of the work program, the amendment to the European Climate Law and the omnibus law to facilitate investments were brought forward to the first quarter. To this end, the Commission has postponed the omnibus on the introduction of a new SME category (small mid-caps) and the reduction of paper bureaucracy to the second quarter. In earlier versions, it was supposed to come before the Investment Act. vis/ber
DRI study: AI chatbots provide unreliable information on federal elections
A recent study by Democracy Reporting International (DRI) shows that many AI-supported chatbots provide inaccurate or misleading answers to questions about the 2025 general election. The report was made available to Table.Briefings in advance. In light of the fact that the EU has already introduced rules in the form of the Digital Services Act (DSA) to minimize systemic risks posed by AI for democratic processes, this is an alarming result.
22 questions for the chatbots
DRI is an independent, non-profit organization based in Berlin that campaigns for democracy, the rule of law, and political participation worldwide. In its report, it posed 22 questions to six common models:
- ChatGPT 4.0 (Open AI)
- ChatGPT 4.0 Turbo (OpenAI)
- Gemini (Google)
- Copilot (Microsoft)
- Grok (xAI, Elon Musk’s company)
- Perplexity.AI (Perplexity)
The results reveal considerable weaknesses in electoral law issues and an unbalanced representation of political positions. According to the DRI, this problem contradicts the EU’s requirements for reliable election information and transparency in generative AI.
While Gemini and Copilot consistently refused to answer questions about voting rights, other chatbots often gave incorrect or incomplete answers. The explanation on voter registration for Germans abroad was particularly problematic, as it often contained outdated or incorrect information. In addition, the answers in German proved to be less precise than in English.
The investigation also revealed that some chatbots dealt with political issues in an unbalanced way. ChatGPT 4.0, ChatGPT Turbo, Perplexity.AI and Copilot tended to neglect the positions of left-wing parties such as BSW and Die Linke. In questions on climate policy, several models explicitly recommended the Greens or SPD without sufficiently considering other parties. Grok showed the most neutral performance overall, while Gemini completely ignored political issues.
EU requirements not yet consistently implemented
The report points out that the EU Commission considers generative AI to be a potential risk to election information and requires in its guidelines on electoral processes that AI models use official sources and avoid misinformation. Some chatbots did refer to official election websites. Nevertheless, they often provided incomplete or incorrect information, for example on voting notifications or the procedure for Germans living abroad.
DRI criticizes the inconsistent quality of chatbot answers. The organization demands that AI providers comply more strictly with EU directives or – like Gemini and Copilot – do not answer voting rights questions at all in order to avoid misinformation. vis
Commission wants to speed up securities trading
Financial Market Commissioner Maria Luís Albuquerque has proposed an acceleration of the settlement cycle in European securities trading. This was the first legislative proposal presented by Albuquerque in her role as Financial Markets Commissioner on Wednesday. According to the proposal, from Oct. 11, 2027, securities trading within the EU should be settled on the following day (T+1) instead of two days after the trading day (T+2), as is currently the case.
To this end, Albuquerque presented an amendment to the Central Securities Depositories Regulation (CSDR) on Wednesday. Thanks to the amended regulation, market participants should also be able to settle trades more quickly – on the trading day itself (T+0). The adjustment is intended to make settlement more efficient and help create a deeper and more liquid capital market, the Commission explained. The authority also hopes that the shortened deadline will lead to greater automation. According to the Commission, China, India, Canada and the USA have already introduced a T+1 system.
The target date of October 2027 is intended to give market participants enough time for the system changeover. “It is very important that we adhere to this date,” said Albuquerque. This is the only way to give market participants the necessary certainty. She also spoke out in favor of coordinating the system changeover with the UK and Switzerland. The EU Parliament and the Council will deal with Albuquerque’s plans next. jaa
Executive Moves
Pierre Bascou has been appointed Deputy Director-General of DG Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI) by the Commission. He had already held this position for the past two years.
Is something changing in your organization? Send a note for our personnel section to heads@table.media!
Europe.Table Editorial Team
EUROPE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE
Dear reader,
A specter has returned to the economic policy debate. Some in the EU Commission apparently want to cap the high energy prices by law, or at least more and more associations are warning against this. Initially, it was the gas industry in agreement with the financial sector, but yesterday the electricity industry repeated its warning: when the Commission presents its action plan on affordable energy prices in just under two weeks, it should not include any new price caps. Investments and security of supply are at risk.
Commission Vice-President Teresa Ribera and her head of cabinet Miguel Gil Tertre are said to have ambitions for such price caps. The former chief economist of the Directorate-General for Energy had already co-written the energy chapter of the Draghi Report, which approves of limiting extreme prices in times of crisis. One argument in the Draghi Report: because the global gas supply was limited, high prices above a certain level during the crisis would no longer have resulted in additional imports into the EU.
However, there is another defensive battle behind the warnings from energy and trading companies. In line with the ECB and the financial regulator ESMA, the Draghi report denounces a high concentration in futures trading with energy derivatives. To date, energy companies have not been regulated as strictly as investment banks or funds. The Draghi report would like to abolish this exception.
So it will be interesting to see which side is really telling horror stories here.
Have a good rest of the week!
Feature
US Secretary of Defense Hegseth outlines Ukraine peace negotiations in Brussels
It was a day when events came thick and fast: On Wednesday lunchtime, the new US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth surprised everyone on the way to his first meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group with clear announcements about how the new administration envisions the terms of a deal in Ukraine. A few hours later, news broke at NATO headquarters that US President Donald Trump had spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone and agreed to start peace negotiations immediately.
It was striking that, unlike his predecessor, Pete Hegseth did not hold out the prospect of new arms aid on his arrival in order to put Ukraine in the best possible position for negotiations. Donald Trump‘s top priority is to stop the bloodshed, said the US Secretary of Defense. A “realistic assessment” of the situation on the battlefield was a prerequisite for success at the negotiating table. The USA is in favor of a prosperous and sovereign Ukraine. However, a return to the pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic goal. Those who cling to this illusion are only prolonging the war.
Renouncing Crimea and Donbas?
According to this interpretation, Ukraine would have to give up Crimea and parts of Donbas. A position that is clearly at odds with what the European allies have so far at least publicly supported. What Donald Trump’s Secretary of Defense said about the further contours of a deal is also likely to be difficult for the Europeans to digest. Robust security guarantees are needed to prevent the war from flaring up again, said Pete Hegseth. There should be no “Minsk 3”.
However, the USA does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic prospect and cannot be part of a peace solution. Security guarantees would also have to be provided by “European and non-European troops”. Hegseth ruled out the possibility of the USA contributing soldiers. The protection force would not be able to invoke Article 5 in the event of a Russian attack. Peacekeeping in Europe was the task of the European members of NATO. In the future, the Europeans would also have to provide the majority of weapons and financial support for Ukraine.
Five percent defense spending
The Europeans need to ramp up their arms production and increase defense spending, said the US Secretary of Defense. And gave a foretaste of today’s discussions in the North Atlantic Council: He agreed with Donald Trump that five percent was necessary. Pete Hegseth recommended that European governments should come clean with their citizens about the threat situation. The “strategic reality” prevents the USA from focusing primarily on Europe’s security in the future.
The USA is confronted with threats on its own borders and from China in the Indo-Pacific. The European partners must now take over conventional security on their continent, said Hegseth, talking about a division of labor. In this way, the transatlantic relationship would also have a future for generations to come. The USA was committed to NATO, but would no longer accept an “unbalanced relationship that encourages dependency”.
Europeans surprised
At the Ukraine Contact Group meeting, the European allies seemed surprised by the agreement between Trump and Putin to start peace negotiations: “We have agreed that our respective teams will begin negotiations immediately,” Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social platform. He will now call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and inform him of the talks. The Europeans have previously insisted that there should be no deal without Ukraine or over the heads of the Ukrainians.
Before the news of the phone call made the rounds, various ministers reiterated the motto that Ukraine must continue to be supported in order to be able to negotiate from a position of strength. “We want to do everything we can to ensure that support continues,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on arrival. Pistorius had previously met his new US counterpart for bilateral talks. He said that the conversation was “very friendly, very open”. He was looking forward to working together.
Peace only with Ukraine
Peace can only be achieved with Ukraine and the Europeans, said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in Paris on Wednesday. Peace will only succeed if Ukraine has the best possible negotiating position, in particular an ironclad and long-term security perspective: “We must be able to count on our American friends for this,” said Baerbock.
Other European counterparts expressed similar views. Baerbock is consulting with her colleagues from Spain, Italy, France and Poland in Paris on how to deal with the new US administration before they meet in Munich at the weekend. The main issue is how to secure support for Ukraine. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister will also be present at parts of the talks.
NDCs: Why the UN is unofficially extending the deadline for climate plans
Nine months before the COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the serious struggle for the outcome of this conference on financing and national climate plans has begun. While only just over a dozen of the almost 200 countries had submitted their plans by the UN deadline for submitting new national climate plans (NDCs) on Feb. 10, the responsible authority, the UN Climate Change (UNFCCC), has informally extended this deadline until September – and is relying on aggressive optimism. Experts expect that important decisions on the NDCs will not be made until summer 2025.
All UN member states were supposed to submit their NDCs for the period from 2030 to 2035 by Feb. 10 – nine months before the start of COP30. According to the UN, 13 countries have done so so far (as of Feb. 9). Among them are only the USA and Brazil as heavyweights and only the UK as an exemplary country for the 1.5-degree pathway – and the USA’s NDC is practically worthless for US federal policy after President Donald Trump took office.
So far: 13 countries, 17 percent of emissions
Only 17 percent of all emissions and eight percent of the world’s population have punctual 2035 plans. “So far, governments have not delivered on what they promised ten years ago [when the Paris Agreement was signed, editor’s note],” criticizes Bill Hare from Climate Action Tracker (CAT), “to put the world on a path to 1.5 degrees at the required pace.” A tightening of the 2030 NDCs is also necessary, but so far none of the countries have provided for this.
The reluctance of countries to act has to do with the overall geopolitical situation. This has also clouded over considerably when it comes to climate action:
- The USA under Trump wants to leave the Paris Agreement. The Trump administration is attacking and cutting funding for US authorities and research institutes, which is also damaging international climate cooperation. The end for US development aid USAID also affects the financing of climate aid.
- A growing number of EU member states are calling on the European Commission to introduce rules to roll back or delay the Green Deal, for example with regard to CO2 fleet limits for cars.
- Uncertainties about possible trade wars are also affecting trade in climate action goods.
- Until COP30, Azerbaijan is officially leading the negotiations as the UNFCCC presidency. At COP29 in Baku, the negotiating leadership showed itself to be unwilling, overwhelmed and aggressive on many issues.
- A financial roadmap for achieving the goals agreed in Baku (aid from industrialized countries of USD 300 billion a year from 2035, USD 1.3 trillion investment in total) is not yet in sight and is not due to be published until the end of the year as the “Road Baku to Belém”.
Stiell: Climate plans out of self-interest
Despite these uncertainties, Simon Stiell, Executive Director of UN Climate Change, is optimistic: ten years after the Paris Agreement, the expected global warming has fallen from five to around three degrees, even if this is still “dangerously high”. Stiell sees the triumph of renewables as unstoppable – and warns the USA that anyone who pulls out now risks economic losses compared to their competitors: “One country may take a step backwards,” said Stiell, “but others will take its place to seize this opportunity.” According to Stiell, more and more countries and companies are recognizing that it is in their own interest to act on climate action.
Good NDCs are more important to the UN than quick climate targets. After all, the original idea in the Paris Agreement was to present the NDCs nine months before they were adopted at COP30: The countries could then revise and improve them. However, this is unlikely to happen anyway. This is another reason why Stiell is practically extending the deadline for the NDCs by six months: “The Secretariat needs them on its desk by September at the latest in order to finalize the synthesis report.”
There are good reasons for restraint
In this report, the authority summarizes the collective climate impact that will result from the national NDCs – and came to the sobering conclusion in 2024 that the NDCs would only lead to a 2.6% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 compared to 2019. According to the IPCC, it is clear that global emissions must be halved by 2030 in order to comply with the 1.5° limit.
There are reasons why many countries are reluctant to set ambitious climate targets:
- The EU is barely able to act on climate policy due to political crises in France and Germany. The Polish Council Presidency does not want to use a new EU climate target of minus 90 percent by 2040 as an argument for the right-wing populist opposition in the presidential election campaign. And more and more countries with conservative governments are resisting the Commission’s Green Deal.
- China will certainly wait and see how the US positions itself on climate and trade issues under Trump before it submits its NDC, says Li Shuo, an expert at the Washington-based think tank Asia Society. China is also likely to let the EU take the lead with its NDC. And it is unclear what closer cooperation between China and the EU on climate policy, which is being called for by semi-officials in China, might look like.
- Many developing countries, especially in Africa, specify two possible development paths for emissions reduction and green transition in their NDCs: One path exclusively with their own resources and one with significant financial and technical support from industrialized countries. Many NDCs are “conditioned” in this way. Given the uncertainty about climate financing, they hold back their plans for as long as possible.
Petter Lydén from Germanwatch also emphasizes that the quality of the NDCs is more important than the timetable. According to the COP28 resolution, the NDCs for 2035 should for the first time, as agreed in the Paris Agreement, describe the restructuring of the entire economy as uniformly and comprehensively as possible as a consequence of the global stocktake. “The NDCs must describe how the economic reality will change. Those who do not make such long-term investment plans will be left behind. We are currently seeing this in the German automotive industry, for example,” says Lydén.
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News
EU trade ministers in favor of de-escalation of Trump’s tariff threats
On Wednesday afternoon, the EU trade ministers discussed how the EU should respond to US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. The representatives of all member states spoke out in favor of remaining united at the trade ministers’ video conference, which was scheduled at short notice, an EU diplomat said after the meeting. “The EU is determined to react decisively”, he added. However, the goal is de-escalation.
Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič reported in the video conference on his talks with the new US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick. He announced a revision of US trade policy that goes beyond the announced steel and aluminum tariffs, according to an EU diplomat. Šefčovič saw himself supported by the Council in his efforts to work constructively with the US, but at the same time to react decisively to US measures. He had held out the prospect to the US Secretary of Commerce that the EU would help in dealing with global overcapacity.
On Wednesday morning, the Permanent Representatives in Brussels also exchanged views on the matter. Trump announced on Monday that the USA would impose tariffs of 25 percent on steel and aluminum from March 12. In parallel to the political consultations, the member states are also coordinating at a technical level. On Feb. 20, the working group in the Trade Council is expected to deal with the impending US tariffs. jaa
- Donald Trump
- EU
- Exports
- Steel
- Trade dispute
- Trade policy
Coalition negotiations in Austria failed
The coalition negotiations between the conservative ÖVP and the right-wing populist FPÖ in Austria have failed. FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl informed Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen that the talks had been broken off and returned the order to form a government, as his party announced. If an agreement had been reached, Kickl would have been the first chancellor from the ranks of the right-wing populists.
Following the failure of the coalition talks, Federal President Van der Bellen announced that he would meet with the party representatives and sound out which options would lead out of the political impasse. He urged the politicians to finally approach each other again. “Compromise has fallen into disrepute,” said the head of state. But without this “Austrian recipe for success”, it would not work.
Van der Bellen listed several possible options as solutions to the current situation: New elections in a few months, a new minority government with the acquiescence of parliament, or a government of experts. He also did not rule out the possibility that parties could still agree on a viable coalition in a further attempt. The FPÖ won the parliamentary elections in the fall of 2024. dpa
Agriculture: What the Commission’s vision paper says
In its vision paper on agriculture announced for next week, the European Commission apparently outlines ideas for future EU agricultural subsidies. According to a preliminary summary available to Table.Briefings, the Commission wants to give the member states more leeway in the implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). At the same time, they are to be made more responsible for actually achieving the objectives of the CAP. This fits in with the Commission’s ideas for the new Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).
The CAP direct payments are to become more “targeted”, but still promote food supply as well as the competitiveness and sustainability of the sector. The Commission wants to examine whether, in the future, it should focus its funding on products that are important for the EU’s so-called strategic autonomy. This is likely to mean products that the EU cannot supply itself with, such as protein feed. Small and medium-sized enterprises should benefit from simplified funding instruments.
In addition, the vision apparently addresses several issues that Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen has recently emphasized publicly. For example, “reciprocity” in international trade – i.e. applying domestic standards increasingly to imports. Strengthening farmers in the supply chain is also to be addressed again. Hansen had already made proposals on this shortly after taking office. The draft for the vision paper is currently still being coordinated within the Commission. jd
Auto dialog: Climate Commissioner Hoekstra listens to opinions on Clean Transition
In the first working session of the auto dialog, Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra spoke with 19 participants about clean transformation and decarbonization. Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall was also present at the two-hour meeting. Industry representatives Sigrid de Vries (ACEA) and Benjamin Krieger (CLEPA) pointed out the difficult economic situation. They made it clear that the fines would have to be averted and the review of the CO2 fleet regulation brought forward, and that the electrification targets could not be met.
However, they were in a lonely position: the representatives of consumer protection organizations, NGOs, trade unions, and the charging infrastructure, on the other hand, made it clear that the objectives of the regulation were achievable. They argued that nothing should be changed in the regulation. Instead, they called for incentive programs for the purchase of EVs, mandatory requirements for CO2-free company car fleets, and further efforts to expand the charging infrastructure.
Hoekstra has reportedly not revealed what the Commission is planning. He has also not made it clear whether he intends to invite the participants to a second round. As part of the auto dialog, the first working session on jobs in industry is taking place today under the leadership of Social Affairs Commissioner Roxana Mînzatu. mgr
- E-Autos
- Europäische Kommission
Cutting red tape: Commission presents new approaches
The EU Commission wants to reduce the bureaucratic burden on business by reforming its own procedures and engaging more closely with stakeholders. “European companies should spend much less time and resources on complying with bureaucratic regulations,” said the responsible EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis at the presentation of the plans. To this end, the authority also wants to change the way it works so that the regulatory proposals are as simple and cost-efficient as possible.
Dombrovskis emphasized that the Commission remains committed to its political goals, such as climate neutrality by 2050. The EU had gone through a “period of intensive regulatory activity” in recent years. The task now is to examine how the green and digital transformation can be driven forward as efficiently as possible. To this end, the Commission will present an initial simplification proposal “in the coming weeks”.
The so-called omnibus law is currently scheduled for Feb. 26. Dombrovskis said that he was already in intensive discussions with MEPs on this. The Commission is counting on Parliament and the Council to prioritize the simplification proposals.
Consistent SME tests for new laws
The declared aim of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is to reduce the administrative burden for companies by at least 25 percent and for SMEs by at least 35 percent. As previously reported by Europe.Table, the Commission’s communication on simplification includes the following points:
- Before proposing new laws, the Commission wants to subject them to an SME and a competitiveness check.
- The Commission’s Directorates-General are to screen the entire body of EU legislation in order to identify the cumulative impact of directives and regulations on companies.
- Following the example of the practical checks in Germany, the authority wants to work together with practitioners from companies to look for concrete simplifications, for example in approval procedures.
- The Commission wants to monitor the implementation of adopted laws more closely than before, through “implementation roadmaps” for the member states and implementation dialogues with stakeholders. tho
Work program 2025: Commission withdraws AI liability
In a surprise move, the Commission has withdrawn its proposal for a directive on the adaptation of non-contractual civil liability to artificial intelligence (AI Liability Directive). This emerges from the Commission’s work program for 2025, the final version of which was presented by the authority on Wednesday. In total, it withdrew 37 legislative proposals.
The decision to also withdraw the AI liability was apparently only made on Tuesday evening. It is possibly no coincidence that this happened after US Vice President JD Vance’s appearance at the AI Action Summit in Paris. There, Vance once again emphasized how little the US believes in regulating artificial intelligence.
No EU-wide harmonization
The decision also came as a surprise to the EU Parliament’s rapporteur Axel Voss (CDU). “This decision is a disaster for European companies and citizens alike,” criticized Voss. By abolishing it, the Commission is actively opting for legal uncertainty, a power imbalance between companies “and a Wild West approach to AI liability that only benefits Big Tech”. He fears that liability will now be governed by 27 different and outdated legal systems.
Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič justified the deletion by stating that the AI liability presented in 2022 had not progressed in the co-decision procedure. The co-legislators would have the opportunity to raise an objection.
In the final version of the work program, the amendment to the European Climate Law and the omnibus law to facilitate investments were brought forward to the first quarter. To this end, the Commission has postponed the omnibus on the introduction of a new SME category (small mid-caps) and the reduction of paper bureaucracy to the second quarter. In earlier versions, it was supposed to come before the Investment Act. vis/ber
DRI study: AI chatbots provide unreliable information on federal elections
A recent study by Democracy Reporting International (DRI) shows that many AI-supported chatbots provide inaccurate or misleading answers to questions about the 2025 general election. The report was made available to Table.Briefings in advance. In light of the fact that the EU has already introduced rules in the form of the Digital Services Act (DSA) to minimize systemic risks posed by AI for democratic processes, this is an alarming result.
22 questions for the chatbots
DRI is an independent, non-profit organization based in Berlin that campaigns for democracy, the rule of law, and political participation worldwide. In its report, it posed 22 questions to six common models:
- ChatGPT 4.0 (Open AI)
- ChatGPT 4.0 Turbo (OpenAI)
- Gemini (Google)
- Copilot (Microsoft)
- Grok (xAI, Elon Musk’s company)
- Perplexity.AI (Perplexity)
The results reveal considerable weaknesses in electoral law issues and an unbalanced representation of political positions. According to the DRI, this problem contradicts the EU’s requirements for reliable election information and transparency in generative AI.
While Gemini and Copilot consistently refused to answer questions about voting rights, other chatbots often gave incorrect or incomplete answers. The explanation on voter registration for Germans abroad was particularly problematic, as it often contained outdated or incorrect information. In addition, the answers in German proved to be less precise than in English.
The investigation also revealed that some chatbots dealt with political issues in an unbalanced way. ChatGPT 4.0, ChatGPT Turbo, Perplexity.AI and Copilot tended to neglect the positions of left-wing parties such as BSW and Die Linke. In questions on climate policy, several models explicitly recommended the Greens or SPD without sufficiently considering other parties. Grok showed the most neutral performance overall, while Gemini completely ignored political issues.
EU requirements not yet consistently implemented
The report points out that the EU Commission considers generative AI to be a potential risk to election information and requires in its guidelines on electoral processes that AI models use official sources and avoid misinformation. Some chatbots did refer to official election websites. Nevertheless, they often provided incomplete or incorrect information, for example on voting notifications or the procedure for Germans living abroad.
DRI criticizes the inconsistent quality of chatbot answers. The organization demands that AI providers comply more strictly with EU directives or – like Gemini and Copilot – do not answer voting rights questions at all in order to avoid misinformation. vis
Commission wants to speed up securities trading
Financial Market Commissioner Maria Luís Albuquerque has proposed an acceleration of the settlement cycle in European securities trading. This was the first legislative proposal presented by Albuquerque in her role as Financial Markets Commissioner on Wednesday. According to the proposal, from Oct. 11, 2027, securities trading within the EU should be settled on the following day (T+1) instead of two days after the trading day (T+2), as is currently the case.
To this end, Albuquerque presented an amendment to the Central Securities Depositories Regulation (CSDR) on Wednesday. Thanks to the amended regulation, market participants should also be able to settle trades more quickly – on the trading day itself (T+0). The adjustment is intended to make settlement more efficient and help create a deeper and more liquid capital market, the Commission explained. The authority also hopes that the shortened deadline will lead to greater automation. According to the Commission, China, India, Canada and the USA have already introduced a T+1 system.
The target date of October 2027 is intended to give market participants enough time for the system changeover. “It is very important that we adhere to this date,” said Albuquerque. This is the only way to give market participants the necessary certainty. She also spoke out in favor of coordinating the system changeover with the UK and Switzerland. The EU Parliament and the Council will deal with Albuquerque’s plans next. jaa
Executive Moves
Pierre Bascou has been appointed Deputy Director-General of DG Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI) by the Commission. He had already held this position for the past two years.
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Europe.Table Editorial Team
EUROPE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE
