Table.Briefing: Europe (English)

Trump: how the EU is preparing + Bütikofer interview + New prime minister for Ireland

Dear reader,

When the environment ministers of the EU countries meet in Brussels today, they will discuss the Waste Shipment Regulation, the regulation of microplastics and the Commission’s proposal on the EU’s 2040 climate target. As is so often the case, however, what is not on the agenda is much more important: the Nature Restoration Law.

After the ambassadors of the member states were unable to agree on the controversial law to restore nature due to a lack of majorities on Friday, the Belgian Council Presidency postponed the final vote of the ministers indefinitely.

It cannot be ruled out that the law will be passed at one of the next ministerial meetings. And since only the approval of the countries is missing and the Council meetings run independently of the EU election cycle, there is no imminent deadline for the restoration law with regard to the upcoming European elections. However, neither the Belgians nor the Hungarians (Budapest takes over the Council Presidency in July) seem to be big fans of the law. It is therefore possible that the Nature Restoration Law will be put on the back burner after all.

Whether you think this is good news or bad news, have a good start to the new week.

Your
Lukas Knigge
Image of Lukas  Knigge

Feature

How the EU states are preparing for Trump’s possible term in office

“Irresponsible”, “reckless” or “danger for Europe.” The statements made by European heads of state and government about Donald Trump have recently been less than flattering. There is also no sign of anticipation in the working paper the German Institute for International and Security Affairs intends to publish this Monday. In it, foreign policy experts from 19 European countries have their say.

“Many are worried about Trump’s interest-driven, isolationist and disruptive style of government,” reads the introduction by SWP authors Claudia Major, Laura von Daniels and Nicolai von Ondarza. “But there are also voices that see common ground with Trump on foreign and security policy issues as well as in ‘identity politics’.”

The countries are particularly concerned about three areas: democracy, defense and trade. Anti-democratic forces could feel a boost from Trump’s possible election victory (“spillover”), right-wing populist politicians could feel attracted to Trump and offer him cooperation.

Ukraine threatens new hardship under Trump

According to the report, the USA remains “irreplaceable” for military aid to Ukraine. However, many countries are concerned that Trump could enforce a ceasefire against the will of Ukraine and thus perhaps also against European interests (“capitulation peace”). These fears are expressed primarily in EU/NATO states with a border to Russia. How should the EU, which is dependent on US funds in NATO, behave?

The influence of the conservative Heritage Foundation on Trump is also an issue in many countries. The think tank is an ideological front organization of the Trump campaign. There is speculation as to whether, in the best-case scenario, Trump will retain the billions in aid for Ukraine but switch from grants to loans.

In the Baltic states, Norway and Poland, diplomats and politicians fear that Trump sees transatlantic relations primarily as a business relationship and could question the “value of alliances and pacts in themselves.”

The debate about the two percent target for defense spending will be fueled in the EU by a possible President Trump, according to the analysis. “While everyone agrees that the EU needs to do more, there are differences on how to achieve the target.” While Norway and Germany would try to implement increased funding for defense spending as a kind of “prevention policy” even before the NATO summit in Washington, countries such as France and Poland would hardly feel addressed. Norway wants to reach the two percent mark before the summit in order to avoid Trump’s criticism.

The countries are expecting major upheavals in economic policy

Trump’s expected rustic government policy could also have geopolitical repercussions in places where they were previously unsuspected. According to the SWP report, Spain is worried about the rise of right-wing populism in some South American countries and Bulgaria fears that Trump’s radical plans will cause chaos in Balkan politics. The Czech Republic is not so critical of a second Trump term; after all, it was Trump who provided Ukraine with weapons early on and sent troops to Eastern Europe.

In terms of economic and trade policy, countries expect major upheavals in Trump’s second term in office. In particular, possible US sanctions on technology exports to China are mentioned. “These factors could have far-reaching effects on global trade and investment flows.” These concerns are most frequently voiced in countries that rely on international trade, such as Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland or Sweden.

Some European experts do see one key advantage of a renewed US presidency for Donald Trump. Trump could be a “unifying factor” for the EU. Given the major challenge that a Trump presidency poses for Europe, some internal EU differences seem almost petty.

  • Donald Trump
  • EU
  • Trump 2024
  • Ukraine
  • Ukraine War
  • USA

‘We need much more unity on China issues’

Are you happier with the EU’s China policy today than five years ago?

Yes, because five years ago, the EU had just completed the difficult operation of presenting a new framework definition for European relations with China: the triad of partner, competitor, and systemic rival. At the time, there were many concerns whether this was not over-critical. The German government only gave pushback. The Chancellor did not even use the word systemic rivalry until the end of her term of office. There were defeatist tendencies in the European Union, along the lines of “You can’t rely on the USA with President Trump, we Europeans can’t come to a common denominator – then you just have to take what you can get from China.”

Today we see that the more critical stance was the more realistic one. This is not a minority position but is widely shared and also very clearly represented by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. Xi Jinping has not only brought about a political regression in China itself but has also struck a new, much more aggressive chord regarding China’s role in the world. If we Europeans had not set out on this path, we would be in a pretty sorry state today. The European Parliament can proudly boast of this: Thanks to our unity on China policy, we have helped ensure that several trade defense instruments really do exist today.

The past three years, in particular, have marked a clear change of course for the EU Commission. Where is still room for improvement?

We still have too much disagreement on important China policy issues, which is also reflected in reactions to proposals from the EU Commission. With regard to economic security, the Commission rightly says that we need additional strategies and measures. We will need outbound investment screening. But so far, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck has been the only one who dared to say this. There is not enough consensus between the capitals on other issues relating to relations with China.

Where do you see that?

Take the current situation in Hong Kong, for example. It passed a National Security Law, under which a person can be sentenced to 14 years in prison if they do not report a neighbor thinking about participating in a peaceful protest that the government does not like. Where are the appropriate responses to this? It would be entirely appropriate to sanction Hong Kong’s Government Executive and human rights opponent, John Lee, as the United States has done for a long time. Incidentally, China policy is not just what we do in our direct relationship with China. China policy has to consider the entire international environment.

What needs to be on the to-do list of the next EU Commission?

This agenda almost writes itself. Economic security is becoming more pressing due to China’s policy of further subsidizing overcapacity in many industrial sectors. Where is all this going? The US market is largely closed. The Japanese are also protecting themselves. We are relatively open. Jens Eskelund, President of the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, warns that this Chinese subsidy offensive threatens to partially deindustrialize Europe. That has to be taken seriously.

What else?

A second issue remains China’s relationship with Russia. China is not somewhat neutral. Without China’s active support, Russian President Vladimir Putin would not be able to wage his war the way he is waging it. China is a country that is helping Putin to destroy Europe’s security architecture. A third issue is China’s actions in its own neighborhood: in the South China Sea, the East China Sea and especially in the Taiwan Strait. The Indian-Himalayan border and China’s confrontational policy in the global environment through economic blackmail also deserve mentioning.

We cannot wait our turn, we must show solidarity to maintain an international order based on the principles of the United Nations. One weakness is that our China policy comes across more as European self-defense than as a European contribution to a positive order for the majority of international partners in the future.

What is on your personal agenda for the next few years?

I have been involved with China for more than 50 years. I will not let that go. The details of what I will do have not yet been decided. However, I have taken over the chairmanship of a new German-Taiwanese dialogue platform that the German government has set up. I will strive to strengthen civil society engagement with our Taiwanese partners. I am particularly interested in not always looking at Taiwan through the lens of cross-strait relations. It is also interesting to discuss how Taiwan deals with its own history of dictatorship, how it handles minority issues and how it facilitates social diversity – more so than other Asian countries do.

Will you also try to generate more interest in Taiwan in Berlin and Brussels so that there will be some progress towards a bilateral trade agreement?

We are currently in an interesting phase on that. Taiwan has long insisted that we need a bilateral investment agreement. We have also clearly supported this several times in the European Parliament with huge majorities. However, many companies tell us we should follow the old American principle: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The problem is not that you can’t invest. Other unresolved issues are more important. For example, I would like to see an agreement on resilient supply chains with Taiwan. I think we need to take a pragmatic approach here. The five major democratic groups in the European Parliament have managed to reach a consensus. I would like to see the same for the EU member states and the German Bundestag.

Who will succeed you as the German voice for China in Brussels and Strasbourg?

Wait and see.

Reinhard Bütikofer is a Green MEP and Chairman of the European Parliament’s China delegation. He recently became co-chair of the German-Taiwanese dialogue forum.

  • China
  • EU
  • European policy

‘Slovakia is not Fico country’

Liberal Ivan Korčok was ahead of Peter Pellegrini, Robert Fico’s party colleague, in the first round of the presidential election in Slovakia.

The liberal forces in Slovakia are breathing a sigh of relief. Ever since Putin’s friend Robert Fico won the parliamentary elections six months ago and set about overturning the western, democratic orientation of the EU and NATO country at breakneck speed, something akin to panic had spread among the opposition. But the first round of the presidential election on Saturday allowed a surprising insight.

Fico and his nationalist partners are not invulnerable. It was not their candidate, the previous parliamentary speaker Peter Pellegrini, who won the race, but his opponent from the liberal opposition, the diplomat and former foreign minister Ivan Korčok. And with a lead that should not be underestimated. According to the provisional final result, Korčok received 42.5 percent of the vote and Pellegrini 37 percent.

Liberal press comments euphorically on election results

No more talk of depression and hopelessness, the editor-in-chief of the daily Denník N, Matúš Kostolný, wrote in a commentary on Sunday: after the parliamentary elections “many people had the feeling that a defeat would mean the end and that Fico would rule for years. Korčok’s victory is proof that it doesn’t have to be that way. Fico has not confused the whole country and there is still a chance to defeat him. Slovakia is not Fico country.”

Fico was the first to target the judicial system. He abolished the Special Court, which dealt with cases of serious corruption involving shady people close to the long-term head of government – and which also dealt with the murder of the young investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée.

With Pellegrini, Fico could rule through

Fico’s presidential candidate Pellegrini, whose Social Democratic Party is a member of the government, supports this. Just as it supports the foreign policy shift to fully back Putin and no longer support Ukraine with weapons. With Pellegrini as president, Prime Minister Fico would have the chance to govern through.

The outcome of the first round of voting was not necessarily expected, even for the two candidates who will meet again in the run-off on April 6. Pellegrini’s expression showed increasing disappointment as his initial lead from the count in rural areas diminished and he eventually had to let Korčok pass him when the results from the cities with liberal voters came in.

Korčok also courts voters from the government camp

Korčok, on the other hand, looked very relieved, as if a big rucksack had fallen off his back. He gave the impression of being a little surprised by his own success. And to prevent himself from becoming too euphoric, he said: “The result looks hopeful. But I’m keeping my feet on the ground.”

However, Korčok is feeling an unexpectedly strong tailwind, which he wants to use at rallies in the run-up to the second ballot. Before the second round of voting, he also wants to address the voters of the governing parties. “Those who do not identify with the vulgarity and lack of culture revealed by the governing coalition,” he said.

Possible support from ultra-nationalists

Pellegrini announced that he would ask the candidates who had failed in the first round for support. He is relying primarily on the voters of the Hungarian minority and those of the third-placed candidate from the first round, former Justice Minister Štefan Harabin. The ultra-nationalist, for whom Putin is not the aggressor in the Ukraine conflict, achieved 11.74 percent of the vote.

Pellegrini also emphasized once again to journalists that only he knows how to defend Slovakia’s interests and warned “that Korčok will drag Slovakia into the war in Ukraine.” A completely misleading claim, especially as it is not the president who decides on the deployment of Slovakian soldiers, but only the government and parliament.

Political analysts see Pellegrini as having a slight advantage in the run-off. But for most, the Fico candidate was already the favorite for the first round. He did not live up to this role. Hans-Jörg Schmidt, Prague

News

Ireland: Harris to become new prime minister

Simon Harris is expected to become Ireland’s youngest prime minister in April.

Simon Harris is expected to become Ireland’s new Prime Minister. On Sunday, he was elected unopposed to succeed Leo Varadkar as leader of the ruling Fine Gael party. Harris promised to support small businesses, tackle the issue of migration and focus on law and order.

The 37-year-old Harris is currently Minister for Research and is expected to be elected as Ireland’s youngest-ever Prime Minister at the next parliamentary session on April 9th thanks to the support of the coalition partners.

He has less than a year to save the coalition from defeat in the general election. In the polls over the last three years, Sinn Fein, which supports reunification with British-ruled Northern Ireland, has been named as the favorite to lead the next government. Varadkar had surprisingly announced his resignation on Wednesday. rtr

  • Irland

Bulgaria: impending new election threatens euro introduction

The former Deputy Prime Minister Maria Gabriel, who has been tasked with forming a new government in Bulgaria, has broken off talks on a new cabinet. “No to the constant new conditions,” said the 44-year-old former EU Commissioner on Sunday in Sofia, explaining her decision. Gabriel and the negotiating team of the pro-Western center-right alliance Gerb-SDS thus put an end to the government talks with the previous, equally pro-Western liberal-conservative coalition partner PP-DB.

The previous pro-Western government of Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov resigned as planned at the beginning of March. This is to enable a rotation of the office of Prime Minister agreed between the government partners in 2023. Gabriel would then become head of government and Denkov her deputy. According to media reports, both sides argued primarily over personnel issues.

Two more government contracts would have to fail before new elections

Gabriel said that she now wanted to withdraw her nomination for the office of Prime Minister, which had been planned for Monday by parliament. After that, the government she presented last Tuesday after talks with the PP-DB, but on her own, is unlikely to be voted on.

Now the sixth parliamentary election within three years is looming. However, before this is called, two further government mandates issued by head of state Rumen Radev would have to fail. Experts warn that another parliamentary election could make it more difficult for Bulgaria to introduce the euro on January 1, 2025. Bulgaria is also due to join the Schengen area without identity checks on March 31 – but only with its air and sea borders for the time being. dpa

  • Schengen-Raum

Scholz welcomes spending target for Ukraine

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has welcomed Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas’ proposal for an EU spending target of 0.25 percent of gross domestic product for Ukraine. Following the EU summit in Brussels on Friday, Scholz called the proposal “sympathetic” and referred to calculations according to which the EU would even have to raise 0.8 percent of its economic output to reach the spending level of the USA. “That is why such benchmarks are good and helpful because they provide clarity,” he said.

At the beginning of the summit, Kallas said that if each country were to make at least 0.25 percent of its gross domestic product available for military aid, the Ukrainians could outstrip Russia in terms of military spending.

Ukraine significantly increases electricity imports

According to figures from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), Estonia is currently spending almost 3.6 percent of its GDP on support for Ukraine, more than any other country in the world. Germany’s latest figure was around 0.6 percent. However, other economically strong EU countries such as France, Italy and Spain are well below the 0.25 percent mark with a rate of around 0.07 percent.

Following Russia’s recent attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the country significantly increased its electricity imports on Sunday. According to the energy ministry, half of the production capacities of the largest supplier DTEK were destroyed. dpa/rtr

  • Ukraine-Krieg

Lobbycontrol wants clarification on Ferber

Lobbycontrol demands consequences from the conflict of interest allegations against CSU MEP Markus Ferber. The case shows that, despite improvements, “there are still loopholes in the code of conduct for MEPs,” according to a press release. There is still no definition of the secondary activities that count as lobbying and should therefore not be permitted. The association believes that the President of Parliament, Roberta Metsola, must act.

The European Green Group is also calling for her to investigate. “The new revelations once again raise the question of a possible conflict of interest that must be taken very seriously,” Der Spiegel quotes from a letter from co-chair Phillippe Lamberts to Metsola. In the past, there have been repeated accusations against Ferber due to his proximity to the financial industry, as Lobbycontrol also emphasizes.

Advice on MiFID II criticized

This case concerns the politician’s long-standing relationship with the Dutch businessman Michael Heijmeijer. The latter runs CFinancials, a company dedicated to rating financial products. In 2013, the two established a foundation to bring financial products closer to a broader public.

According to Politico, the two planned in 2015 for Ferber to advise banks on an EU financial market directive (MiFID II), which he co-wrote, for large sums of money. He is also said to have put Heijmeier in touch with high-ranking EU officials. The CSU politician, who is also Chairman of the Hanns Seidel Foundation, rejects the accusations: he did not derive any economic benefits from his contact with Heijmeijer. okb

  • Europäisches Parlament

Real wage loss: Germany above EU average

Real wages in the EU continued to fall in 2023 due to inflation. This is shown in a new report by the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI). According to the report, inflation was higher than wage growth in ten of the 27 member states last year. Employees in Hungary and the Czech Republic suffered the greatest loss of purchasing power at almost four percent. At 0.9 percent, Germany was above the EU-wide average (0.7 percent). In 2022, the average real wage decrease amounted to 4.3 percent.

The ETUI points out that, according to the European Central Bank, increased corporate profits have made a decisive contribution to inflation. A wage increase would also help the economy, according to the institute. In February, the EU declared that its growth in 2023 had been slowed by the erosion of household purchasing power. The ETUI acts as a think tank for the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), which in its manifesto for the European elections calls for, among other things, a right to permanent contracts and the taxation of excess profits. okb

  • Gewerkschaften
  • Inflation
  • Labor market
  • Trade unions

Heads

Félix Bolaños – the strong man behind Pedro Sánchez

Spain s Minister of the Presidency, Justice and Relations with the Cortes, Felix Bolanos looks on during an European Justice Home Affairs Interior Ministers Council at the EU Council headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on December 4, 2023. Brussels Belgium.
Félix Bolaños García: As Minister for the Presidency, Justice and Parliamentary Relations, he is at the center of Spain’s political power.

Félix Bolaños is the most powerful man in Pedro Sánchez’s government. Since November 2023, Bolaños has been Minister for the Presidency, Justice and Parliamentary Relations. The super minister is one of the architects of the amnesty law, which aims to ensure that Catalan separatists remain unpunished for crimes such as corruption, embezzlement and terrorism. During this legislative period, he is maintaining relations with the Catalan separatists, the EU institutions and the opposition in order to achieve a reform of the Spanish justice system.

Bolaños was born in Madrid in 1975. He is the only son of a couple of emigrants who met in Munich while working in a factory. Together, they returned to Spain to open a bird and plant shop in Madrid. To finance his law studies at the Complutense University, Bolaños worked as a soccer referee and pizza delivery boy. He began his legal career at the renowned law firm Uría y Menéndez. In 2005, he moved to the Bank of Spain, where he was head of the labor law advice and legal documentation department from 2008 to 2018.

How Bolaños came to his key position

Bolaños joined the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) at the age of 27. It is said that he had no reason to enter politics because of the money he earned as a lawyer. Nevertheless, he volunteered for the party alongside his work at the Bank of Spain. At weekends, he provided free legal advice for the PSOE in Madrid, initially supporting immigrants and then fellow party members.

Sánchez and Bolaños met at a PSOE party in 2014. Sánchez was a member of Madrid City Council at the time but had the ambition to become party leader. Bolaños offered to help Sánchez with the legal aspects and the PSOE statutes. When Sánchez was promoted to Secretary General of the PSOE in the same year, Bolaños was given a place in the PSOE’s national organizational structure. Following the motion of no confidence in Mariano Rajoy (Popular Party) in 2018, Sánchez took over as head of government and appointed Bolaños as Secretary General of the Office of the President. In this key position, in which he worked closely with Sánchez, he coordinated the work of the government.

The expert for delicate operations

Félix Bolaños is above all the discreet man in the Sánchez government who plans and carries out the most delicate operations. During Sánchez’s first term in office, Bolaños played a key role in the exhumation of the remains of the dictator Francisco Franco from the Valley of the Fallen, which was renamed the Valley of Cuelgamuros.

Bolaños was also responsible for the development of the PSOE’s new political organization model, which gave Sánchez almost all the power, as well as for the renewal of the PSOE-affiliated Radio Televisión Española (RTVE).

As a minister in Pedro Sánchez’s second term of office, Bolaños led the “de-judicialization” of the Catalan independence process. This aimed to strengthen the political dimension of the conflict and focus less on legal proceedings. The negotiations culminated in amendments to the penal code agreed with the separatist party Esquerra Republicana per Catalunya (ERC) in order to reform the criminal offense of embezzlement and abolish the criminal offense of sedition. Bolaños was the legal architect of the pardons for Catalan separatists in 2021.

Félix Bolaños congratulates himself on the amnesty law

Both the pardons for the Catalan separatists already convicted in court and the amendments to the penal code and, above all, the amnesty law were the supposed “red lines” that the socialists “never” wanted to cross. However, since Sánchez came to power in 2018, all promises have been thrown overboard in order to obtain the necessary parliamentary support to remain in the Moncloa Palace.

Bolaños euphorically congratulated himself on the amnesty law after the PSOE and Carles Puigdemont’s Junts party reached an agreement on March 7 on the changes to the law demanded by the separatist leader. He emphasized that the law would “set standards worldwide.”

In an interview with the radio station Onda Cero at the beginning of March, Bolaños admitted that the amnesty law does not enjoy the social support claimed by the government. According to a survey conducted by SocioMétrica in January of this year, 72 percent of Spaniards are against the law, including 41 percent of PSOE supporters and 51 percent of Catalans. But Bolaños claims: “With every month that Pedro Sánchez governs, there are fewer supporters of independence in Catalonia.” However, this narrative does not hold water. Neither does the alleged reconciliation with Catalonia, which the government cites as the reason for the amnesty law. Both the ERC and Junts insist that they want Catalonia to become independent after the amnesty. Isabel Cuesta

  • Europapolitik

Europe.table editorial team

EUROPE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Licenses:
    Dear reader,

    When the environment ministers of the EU countries meet in Brussels today, they will discuss the Waste Shipment Regulation, the regulation of microplastics and the Commission’s proposal on the EU’s 2040 climate target. As is so often the case, however, what is not on the agenda is much more important: the Nature Restoration Law.

    After the ambassadors of the member states were unable to agree on the controversial law to restore nature due to a lack of majorities on Friday, the Belgian Council Presidency postponed the final vote of the ministers indefinitely.

    It cannot be ruled out that the law will be passed at one of the next ministerial meetings. And since only the approval of the countries is missing and the Council meetings run independently of the EU election cycle, there is no imminent deadline for the restoration law with regard to the upcoming European elections. However, neither the Belgians nor the Hungarians (Budapest takes over the Council Presidency in July) seem to be big fans of the law. It is therefore possible that the Nature Restoration Law will be put on the back burner after all.

    Whether you think this is good news or bad news, have a good start to the new week.

    Your
    Lukas Knigge
    Image of Lukas  Knigge

    Feature

    How the EU states are preparing for Trump’s possible term in office

    “Irresponsible”, “reckless” or “danger for Europe.” The statements made by European heads of state and government about Donald Trump have recently been less than flattering. There is also no sign of anticipation in the working paper the German Institute for International and Security Affairs intends to publish this Monday. In it, foreign policy experts from 19 European countries have their say.

    “Many are worried about Trump’s interest-driven, isolationist and disruptive style of government,” reads the introduction by SWP authors Claudia Major, Laura von Daniels and Nicolai von Ondarza. “But there are also voices that see common ground with Trump on foreign and security policy issues as well as in ‘identity politics’.”

    The countries are particularly concerned about three areas: democracy, defense and trade. Anti-democratic forces could feel a boost from Trump’s possible election victory (“spillover”), right-wing populist politicians could feel attracted to Trump and offer him cooperation.

    Ukraine threatens new hardship under Trump

    According to the report, the USA remains “irreplaceable” for military aid to Ukraine. However, many countries are concerned that Trump could enforce a ceasefire against the will of Ukraine and thus perhaps also against European interests (“capitulation peace”). These fears are expressed primarily in EU/NATO states with a border to Russia. How should the EU, which is dependent on US funds in NATO, behave?

    The influence of the conservative Heritage Foundation on Trump is also an issue in many countries. The think tank is an ideological front organization of the Trump campaign. There is speculation as to whether, in the best-case scenario, Trump will retain the billions in aid for Ukraine but switch from grants to loans.

    In the Baltic states, Norway and Poland, diplomats and politicians fear that Trump sees transatlantic relations primarily as a business relationship and could question the “value of alliances and pacts in themselves.”

    The debate about the two percent target for defense spending will be fueled in the EU by a possible President Trump, according to the analysis. “While everyone agrees that the EU needs to do more, there are differences on how to achieve the target.” While Norway and Germany would try to implement increased funding for defense spending as a kind of “prevention policy” even before the NATO summit in Washington, countries such as France and Poland would hardly feel addressed. Norway wants to reach the two percent mark before the summit in order to avoid Trump’s criticism.

    The countries are expecting major upheavals in economic policy

    Trump’s expected rustic government policy could also have geopolitical repercussions in places where they were previously unsuspected. According to the SWP report, Spain is worried about the rise of right-wing populism in some South American countries and Bulgaria fears that Trump’s radical plans will cause chaos in Balkan politics. The Czech Republic is not so critical of a second Trump term; after all, it was Trump who provided Ukraine with weapons early on and sent troops to Eastern Europe.

    In terms of economic and trade policy, countries expect major upheavals in Trump’s second term in office. In particular, possible US sanctions on technology exports to China are mentioned. “These factors could have far-reaching effects on global trade and investment flows.” These concerns are most frequently voiced in countries that rely on international trade, such as Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland or Sweden.

    Some European experts do see one key advantage of a renewed US presidency for Donald Trump. Trump could be a “unifying factor” for the EU. Given the major challenge that a Trump presidency poses for Europe, some internal EU differences seem almost petty.

    • Donald Trump
    • EU
    • Trump 2024
    • Ukraine
    • Ukraine War
    • USA

    ‘We need much more unity on China issues’

    Are you happier with the EU’s China policy today than five years ago?

    Yes, because five years ago, the EU had just completed the difficult operation of presenting a new framework definition for European relations with China: the triad of partner, competitor, and systemic rival. At the time, there were many concerns whether this was not over-critical. The German government only gave pushback. The Chancellor did not even use the word systemic rivalry until the end of her term of office. There were defeatist tendencies in the European Union, along the lines of “You can’t rely on the USA with President Trump, we Europeans can’t come to a common denominator – then you just have to take what you can get from China.”

    Today we see that the more critical stance was the more realistic one. This is not a minority position but is widely shared and also very clearly represented by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. Xi Jinping has not only brought about a political regression in China itself but has also struck a new, much more aggressive chord regarding China’s role in the world. If we Europeans had not set out on this path, we would be in a pretty sorry state today. The European Parliament can proudly boast of this: Thanks to our unity on China policy, we have helped ensure that several trade defense instruments really do exist today.

    The past three years, in particular, have marked a clear change of course for the EU Commission. Where is still room for improvement?

    We still have too much disagreement on important China policy issues, which is also reflected in reactions to proposals from the EU Commission. With regard to economic security, the Commission rightly says that we need additional strategies and measures. We will need outbound investment screening. But so far, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck has been the only one who dared to say this. There is not enough consensus between the capitals on other issues relating to relations with China.

    Where do you see that?

    Take the current situation in Hong Kong, for example. It passed a National Security Law, under which a person can be sentenced to 14 years in prison if they do not report a neighbor thinking about participating in a peaceful protest that the government does not like. Where are the appropriate responses to this? It would be entirely appropriate to sanction Hong Kong’s Government Executive and human rights opponent, John Lee, as the United States has done for a long time. Incidentally, China policy is not just what we do in our direct relationship with China. China policy has to consider the entire international environment.

    What needs to be on the to-do list of the next EU Commission?

    This agenda almost writes itself. Economic security is becoming more pressing due to China’s policy of further subsidizing overcapacity in many industrial sectors. Where is all this going? The US market is largely closed. The Japanese are also protecting themselves. We are relatively open. Jens Eskelund, President of the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, warns that this Chinese subsidy offensive threatens to partially deindustrialize Europe. That has to be taken seriously.

    What else?

    A second issue remains China’s relationship with Russia. China is not somewhat neutral. Without China’s active support, Russian President Vladimir Putin would not be able to wage his war the way he is waging it. China is a country that is helping Putin to destroy Europe’s security architecture. A third issue is China’s actions in its own neighborhood: in the South China Sea, the East China Sea and especially in the Taiwan Strait. The Indian-Himalayan border and China’s confrontational policy in the global environment through economic blackmail also deserve mentioning.

    We cannot wait our turn, we must show solidarity to maintain an international order based on the principles of the United Nations. One weakness is that our China policy comes across more as European self-defense than as a European contribution to a positive order for the majority of international partners in the future.

    What is on your personal agenda for the next few years?

    I have been involved with China for more than 50 years. I will not let that go. The details of what I will do have not yet been decided. However, I have taken over the chairmanship of a new German-Taiwanese dialogue platform that the German government has set up. I will strive to strengthen civil society engagement with our Taiwanese partners. I am particularly interested in not always looking at Taiwan through the lens of cross-strait relations. It is also interesting to discuss how Taiwan deals with its own history of dictatorship, how it handles minority issues and how it facilitates social diversity – more so than other Asian countries do.

    Will you also try to generate more interest in Taiwan in Berlin and Brussels so that there will be some progress towards a bilateral trade agreement?

    We are currently in an interesting phase on that. Taiwan has long insisted that we need a bilateral investment agreement. We have also clearly supported this several times in the European Parliament with huge majorities. However, many companies tell us we should follow the old American principle: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The problem is not that you can’t invest. Other unresolved issues are more important. For example, I would like to see an agreement on resilient supply chains with Taiwan. I think we need to take a pragmatic approach here. The five major democratic groups in the European Parliament have managed to reach a consensus. I would like to see the same for the EU member states and the German Bundestag.

    Who will succeed you as the German voice for China in Brussels and Strasbourg?

    Wait and see.

    Reinhard Bütikofer is a Green MEP and Chairman of the European Parliament’s China delegation. He recently became co-chair of the German-Taiwanese dialogue forum.

    • China
    • EU
    • European policy

    ‘Slovakia is not Fico country’

    Liberal Ivan Korčok was ahead of Peter Pellegrini, Robert Fico’s party colleague, in the first round of the presidential election in Slovakia.

    The liberal forces in Slovakia are breathing a sigh of relief. Ever since Putin’s friend Robert Fico won the parliamentary elections six months ago and set about overturning the western, democratic orientation of the EU and NATO country at breakneck speed, something akin to panic had spread among the opposition. But the first round of the presidential election on Saturday allowed a surprising insight.

    Fico and his nationalist partners are not invulnerable. It was not their candidate, the previous parliamentary speaker Peter Pellegrini, who won the race, but his opponent from the liberal opposition, the diplomat and former foreign minister Ivan Korčok. And with a lead that should not be underestimated. According to the provisional final result, Korčok received 42.5 percent of the vote and Pellegrini 37 percent.

    Liberal press comments euphorically on election results

    No more talk of depression and hopelessness, the editor-in-chief of the daily Denník N, Matúš Kostolný, wrote in a commentary on Sunday: after the parliamentary elections “many people had the feeling that a defeat would mean the end and that Fico would rule for years. Korčok’s victory is proof that it doesn’t have to be that way. Fico has not confused the whole country and there is still a chance to defeat him. Slovakia is not Fico country.”

    Fico was the first to target the judicial system. He abolished the Special Court, which dealt with cases of serious corruption involving shady people close to the long-term head of government – and which also dealt with the murder of the young investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée.

    With Pellegrini, Fico could rule through

    Fico’s presidential candidate Pellegrini, whose Social Democratic Party is a member of the government, supports this. Just as it supports the foreign policy shift to fully back Putin and no longer support Ukraine with weapons. With Pellegrini as president, Prime Minister Fico would have the chance to govern through.

    The outcome of the first round of voting was not necessarily expected, even for the two candidates who will meet again in the run-off on April 6. Pellegrini’s expression showed increasing disappointment as his initial lead from the count in rural areas diminished and he eventually had to let Korčok pass him when the results from the cities with liberal voters came in.

    Korčok also courts voters from the government camp

    Korčok, on the other hand, looked very relieved, as if a big rucksack had fallen off his back. He gave the impression of being a little surprised by his own success. And to prevent himself from becoming too euphoric, he said: “The result looks hopeful. But I’m keeping my feet on the ground.”

    However, Korčok is feeling an unexpectedly strong tailwind, which he wants to use at rallies in the run-up to the second ballot. Before the second round of voting, he also wants to address the voters of the governing parties. “Those who do not identify with the vulgarity and lack of culture revealed by the governing coalition,” he said.

    Possible support from ultra-nationalists

    Pellegrini announced that he would ask the candidates who had failed in the first round for support. He is relying primarily on the voters of the Hungarian minority and those of the third-placed candidate from the first round, former Justice Minister Štefan Harabin. The ultra-nationalist, for whom Putin is not the aggressor in the Ukraine conflict, achieved 11.74 percent of the vote.

    Pellegrini also emphasized once again to journalists that only he knows how to defend Slovakia’s interests and warned “that Korčok will drag Slovakia into the war in Ukraine.” A completely misleading claim, especially as it is not the president who decides on the deployment of Slovakian soldiers, but only the government and parliament.

    Political analysts see Pellegrini as having a slight advantage in the run-off. But for most, the Fico candidate was already the favorite for the first round. He did not live up to this role. Hans-Jörg Schmidt, Prague

    News

    Ireland: Harris to become new prime minister

    Simon Harris is expected to become Ireland’s youngest prime minister in April.

    Simon Harris is expected to become Ireland’s new Prime Minister. On Sunday, he was elected unopposed to succeed Leo Varadkar as leader of the ruling Fine Gael party. Harris promised to support small businesses, tackle the issue of migration and focus on law and order.

    The 37-year-old Harris is currently Minister for Research and is expected to be elected as Ireland’s youngest-ever Prime Minister at the next parliamentary session on April 9th thanks to the support of the coalition partners.

    He has less than a year to save the coalition from defeat in the general election. In the polls over the last three years, Sinn Fein, which supports reunification with British-ruled Northern Ireland, has been named as the favorite to lead the next government. Varadkar had surprisingly announced his resignation on Wednesday. rtr

    • Irland

    Bulgaria: impending new election threatens euro introduction

    The former Deputy Prime Minister Maria Gabriel, who has been tasked with forming a new government in Bulgaria, has broken off talks on a new cabinet. “No to the constant new conditions,” said the 44-year-old former EU Commissioner on Sunday in Sofia, explaining her decision. Gabriel and the negotiating team of the pro-Western center-right alliance Gerb-SDS thus put an end to the government talks with the previous, equally pro-Western liberal-conservative coalition partner PP-DB.

    The previous pro-Western government of Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov resigned as planned at the beginning of March. This is to enable a rotation of the office of Prime Minister agreed between the government partners in 2023. Gabriel would then become head of government and Denkov her deputy. According to media reports, both sides argued primarily over personnel issues.

    Two more government contracts would have to fail before new elections

    Gabriel said that she now wanted to withdraw her nomination for the office of Prime Minister, which had been planned for Monday by parliament. After that, the government she presented last Tuesday after talks with the PP-DB, but on her own, is unlikely to be voted on.

    Now the sixth parliamentary election within three years is looming. However, before this is called, two further government mandates issued by head of state Rumen Radev would have to fail. Experts warn that another parliamentary election could make it more difficult for Bulgaria to introduce the euro on January 1, 2025. Bulgaria is also due to join the Schengen area without identity checks on March 31 – but only with its air and sea borders for the time being. dpa

    • Schengen-Raum

    Scholz welcomes spending target for Ukraine

    German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has welcomed Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas’ proposal for an EU spending target of 0.25 percent of gross domestic product for Ukraine. Following the EU summit in Brussels on Friday, Scholz called the proposal “sympathetic” and referred to calculations according to which the EU would even have to raise 0.8 percent of its economic output to reach the spending level of the USA. “That is why such benchmarks are good and helpful because they provide clarity,” he said.

    At the beginning of the summit, Kallas said that if each country were to make at least 0.25 percent of its gross domestic product available for military aid, the Ukrainians could outstrip Russia in terms of military spending.

    Ukraine significantly increases electricity imports

    According to figures from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), Estonia is currently spending almost 3.6 percent of its GDP on support for Ukraine, more than any other country in the world. Germany’s latest figure was around 0.6 percent. However, other economically strong EU countries such as France, Italy and Spain are well below the 0.25 percent mark with a rate of around 0.07 percent.

    Following Russia’s recent attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the country significantly increased its electricity imports on Sunday. According to the energy ministry, half of the production capacities of the largest supplier DTEK were destroyed. dpa/rtr

    • Ukraine-Krieg

    Lobbycontrol wants clarification on Ferber

    Lobbycontrol demands consequences from the conflict of interest allegations against CSU MEP Markus Ferber. The case shows that, despite improvements, “there are still loopholes in the code of conduct for MEPs,” according to a press release. There is still no definition of the secondary activities that count as lobbying and should therefore not be permitted. The association believes that the President of Parliament, Roberta Metsola, must act.

    The European Green Group is also calling for her to investigate. “The new revelations once again raise the question of a possible conflict of interest that must be taken very seriously,” Der Spiegel quotes from a letter from co-chair Phillippe Lamberts to Metsola. In the past, there have been repeated accusations against Ferber due to his proximity to the financial industry, as Lobbycontrol also emphasizes.

    Advice on MiFID II criticized

    This case concerns the politician’s long-standing relationship with the Dutch businessman Michael Heijmeijer. The latter runs CFinancials, a company dedicated to rating financial products. In 2013, the two established a foundation to bring financial products closer to a broader public.

    According to Politico, the two planned in 2015 for Ferber to advise banks on an EU financial market directive (MiFID II), which he co-wrote, for large sums of money. He is also said to have put Heijmeier in touch with high-ranking EU officials. The CSU politician, who is also Chairman of the Hanns Seidel Foundation, rejects the accusations: he did not derive any economic benefits from his contact with Heijmeijer. okb

    • Europäisches Parlament

    Real wage loss: Germany above EU average

    Real wages in the EU continued to fall in 2023 due to inflation. This is shown in a new report by the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI). According to the report, inflation was higher than wage growth in ten of the 27 member states last year. Employees in Hungary and the Czech Republic suffered the greatest loss of purchasing power at almost four percent. At 0.9 percent, Germany was above the EU-wide average (0.7 percent). In 2022, the average real wage decrease amounted to 4.3 percent.

    The ETUI points out that, according to the European Central Bank, increased corporate profits have made a decisive contribution to inflation. A wage increase would also help the economy, according to the institute. In February, the EU declared that its growth in 2023 had been slowed by the erosion of household purchasing power. The ETUI acts as a think tank for the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), which in its manifesto for the European elections calls for, among other things, a right to permanent contracts and the taxation of excess profits. okb

    • Gewerkschaften
    • Inflation
    • Labor market
    • Trade unions

    Heads

    Félix Bolaños – the strong man behind Pedro Sánchez

    Spain s Minister of the Presidency, Justice and Relations with the Cortes, Felix Bolanos looks on during an European Justice Home Affairs Interior Ministers Council at the EU Council headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on December 4, 2023. Brussels Belgium.
    Félix Bolaños García: As Minister for the Presidency, Justice and Parliamentary Relations, he is at the center of Spain’s political power.

    Félix Bolaños is the most powerful man in Pedro Sánchez’s government. Since November 2023, Bolaños has been Minister for the Presidency, Justice and Parliamentary Relations. The super minister is one of the architects of the amnesty law, which aims to ensure that Catalan separatists remain unpunished for crimes such as corruption, embezzlement and terrorism. During this legislative period, he is maintaining relations with the Catalan separatists, the EU institutions and the opposition in order to achieve a reform of the Spanish justice system.

    Bolaños was born in Madrid in 1975. He is the only son of a couple of emigrants who met in Munich while working in a factory. Together, they returned to Spain to open a bird and plant shop in Madrid. To finance his law studies at the Complutense University, Bolaños worked as a soccer referee and pizza delivery boy. He began his legal career at the renowned law firm Uría y Menéndez. In 2005, he moved to the Bank of Spain, where he was head of the labor law advice and legal documentation department from 2008 to 2018.

    How Bolaños came to his key position

    Bolaños joined the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) at the age of 27. It is said that he had no reason to enter politics because of the money he earned as a lawyer. Nevertheless, he volunteered for the party alongside his work at the Bank of Spain. At weekends, he provided free legal advice for the PSOE in Madrid, initially supporting immigrants and then fellow party members.

    Sánchez and Bolaños met at a PSOE party in 2014. Sánchez was a member of Madrid City Council at the time but had the ambition to become party leader. Bolaños offered to help Sánchez with the legal aspects and the PSOE statutes. When Sánchez was promoted to Secretary General of the PSOE in the same year, Bolaños was given a place in the PSOE’s national organizational structure. Following the motion of no confidence in Mariano Rajoy (Popular Party) in 2018, Sánchez took over as head of government and appointed Bolaños as Secretary General of the Office of the President. In this key position, in which he worked closely with Sánchez, he coordinated the work of the government.

    The expert for delicate operations

    Félix Bolaños is above all the discreet man in the Sánchez government who plans and carries out the most delicate operations. During Sánchez’s first term in office, Bolaños played a key role in the exhumation of the remains of the dictator Francisco Franco from the Valley of the Fallen, which was renamed the Valley of Cuelgamuros.

    Bolaños was also responsible for the development of the PSOE’s new political organization model, which gave Sánchez almost all the power, as well as for the renewal of the PSOE-affiliated Radio Televisión Española (RTVE).

    As a minister in Pedro Sánchez’s second term of office, Bolaños led the “de-judicialization” of the Catalan independence process. This aimed to strengthen the political dimension of the conflict and focus less on legal proceedings. The negotiations culminated in amendments to the penal code agreed with the separatist party Esquerra Republicana per Catalunya (ERC) in order to reform the criminal offense of embezzlement and abolish the criminal offense of sedition. Bolaños was the legal architect of the pardons for Catalan separatists in 2021.

    Félix Bolaños congratulates himself on the amnesty law

    Both the pardons for the Catalan separatists already convicted in court and the amendments to the penal code and, above all, the amnesty law were the supposed “red lines” that the socialists “never” wanted to cross. However, since Sánchez came to power in 2018, all promises have been thrown overboard in order to obtain the necessary parliamentary support to remain in the Moncloa Palace.

    Bolaños euphorically congratulated himself on the amnesty law after the PSOE and Carles Puigdemont’s Junts party reached an agreement on March 7 on the changes to the law demanded by the separatist leader. He emphasized that the law would “set standards worldwide.”

    In an interview with the radio station Onda Cero at the beginning of March, Bolaños admitted that the amnesty law does not enjoy the social support claimed by the government. According to a survey conducted by SocioMétrica in January of this year, 72 percent of Spaniards are against the law, including 41 percent of PSOE supporters and 51 percent of Catalans. But Bolaños claims: “With every month that Pedro Sánchez governs, there are fewer supporters of independence in Catalonia.” However, this narrative does not hold water. Neither does the alleged reconciliation with Catalonia, which the government cites as the reason for the amnesty law. Both the ERC and Junts insist that they want Catalonia to become independent after the amnesty. Isabel Cuesta

    • Europapolitik

    Europe.table editorial team

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