The Strategic Dialog on the future of the automotive industry starts on Thursday. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is inviting the CEOs of manufacturers and suppliers to the Commission for a first round between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. Apart from the key dates, little is known to the participants about the course of the dialog. This is causing a frown in the industry.
The industry association VDA is downright disconcerted by the composition. The fact that “not a single company from the SME sector was invited to the kick-off event,” whereas the environmental NGO T&E was, “raises doubts as to whether the Commission has fully recognized the challenges facing our industry and the associated necessary discussion partners.”
The umbrella organization of environmental associations T&E is one of the environmental NGOs that have contracts with the Commission. The spokesperson for VDA President Hildegard Müller says: “The fact that the EU Commission actively commissions climate and environmental organizations, including T&E, to influence the voting behavior of EU parliamentarians is a scandal.” Especially given the lack of transparency, which is otherwise rightly demanded in all areas, the procedure is questionable. The spokesperson continued: “If the EU is serious about the strategic dialog with the European automotive industry, this behavior must be corrected or stopped.”
A personnel change at the Strategic Dialog is also causing concern among manufacturers. An official from the Secretariat-General of the Commission, who was Vice President of the NGO Agora Verkehrswende from 2019 to 2022 before returning to the Commission, was named as the contact person for queries regarding the format and participants. However, the Commission has stated that the official has no influence on the content of the discussion format.
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Feature
Russia’s war of aggression: speculation about talks between Trump and Putin
There is currently much speculation as to whether US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have something like a good personal relationship. Susan Stewart, Senior Fellow in the Eastern Europe Research Group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), believes this is a misconception. The idea that Trump and Putin can come up with a “quick deal” in a personal conversation is also unlikely. This is because “the levers of influence the USA has over Russia are limited,” analyzes Russia expert Margarete Klein. It is not sufficiently understood in the Trump camp that this war for Russia is “embedded in a longer confrontation with the West.”
There is currently no strong pressure on Moscow to find a quick agreement: Russian forces are gradually conquering more territory in Ukraine. Particularly in the south, on the Sea of Azov, they are succeeding in widening the land corridor to Crimea. At the same time, surveys conducted by the independent opinion research center Levada in Russia show that people’s general satisfaction with life is very high. The economy has also adapted to the new wartime normality, while the regime is careful not to repeat the mistakes of the Soviet Union and not to exaggerate the militarization of the economy. Putin succeeds in lulling society into a sense of security, making it forget the war.
Plan for a peace agreement entirely unclear
According to SWP expert Klein, “the new administration has notyet developed a US strategy” in relation to Russia. Trump’s special representative for Ukraine, former Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, has presented a kind of master plan. In a paper published by the arch-conservative think tank “American First Policy Institute” (AFPI), he names possible bases for talks with Russia. The USA will offer to “postpone Ukraine’s NATO membership for an extended period in return for a comprehensive and verifiable peace agreement with security guarantees.” A freeze of the conflict at a ceasefire line and the lifting of sanctions are also envisaged.
What a peace agreement should look like is entirely unclear. And who should secure it. Recent statements by Trump to withdraw 20,000 US troops from Europe suggest that the US president is planning to use European troops for this purpose. The withdrawal can also be seen in Moscow as a sign that Trump has no interest in Europe. According to Klein, there should be concern about a possible “fake solution”. “Trump can then present himself as a dealmaker without the conflict being resolved in the long term.”
The new US Secretary of State Rubio speaks of a ‘stalemate’
According to Reuters, Trump confidants last confirmed in mid-January that it would “take months” to reach a solution. The president also understood this. Trump’s promise to end the war in 24 hours was a “combination of campaign bluster and a lack of understanding of the complexity of this conflict”. “There will be no quick solution,” Ukraine expert Stewart is certain.
It will be interesting to see what role the new US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will play. Shortly after his inauguration at the beginning of last week, he clarified that both Russia and Ukraine would have to make “concessions.” There had been a “stalemate” on the battlefield. Unlike President Trump, however, Rubio is holding back on details or a schedule. The issue is “complicated” and therefore “we won’t get ahead of ourselves by talking about negotiations at his level.”
Arms aid for Ukraine highly controversial among Republicans
However, Rubio is not expected to advocate an increase in arms aid for Ukraine either. Last year, he voted against a bill by former President Joe Biden to provide Ukraine with billions more in arms aid. Support for Ukraine remains highly controversial in the Republican Party. At the end of last year, 42 percent of Republicans said that the USA was providing too much support. Only 36 percent still believe that the USA is obliged to help Ukraine against the Russian aggressor.
The withdrawal of arms aid is also part of Kellogg’s plan if Ukraine is not willing to engage in talks. However, a previously planned trip by Kellogg to Kyiv has been postponed for the time being. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Moscow has already “made fun” of Kellogg’s plans. The WSJ commented on how great Kellogg’s influence on President Trump really is: “He’ll just do what Trump tells him.”With Viktor Funk
Translation missing.
Protests in Slovakia: Fico comes under increasing pressure
Around 100,000 people in 30 cities demonstrated against the course of the Slovakian government under Prime Minister Robert Fico at the weekend. 60,000 people gathered in the capital Bratislava alone. The last time Slovakia experienced protests on this scale was in 2018, following the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée. At the time, Fico had to resign as prime minister. The 60-year-old left-wing nationalist, who is prime minister for the fourth time, now wants to prevent such a scenario at all costs.
Fico heads a three-party coalition and was initially able to rely on 79 out of 150 MPs in parliament. But the former majority is meltingaway. Four MPs have repeatedly refused to support the government’s policies. And three renegades from the rather unpredictable national party SNS are demanding more power – for themselves, including a ministerial post.
Dispute with Ukraine as a welcome distraction
The government is also under pressure in terms of content. Social benefits, which Fico had promised in abundance, failed to materialize. Instead, the government had to put together a consolidation package to tackle the national debt. Among other things, this includes an increase in VAT, including on food. This is not going down well with Fico’s voters either. The government’s authoritarian interventions in the judiciary, public media and culture are also controversial.
In response to the criticism, Fico took the path he had already taken in earlier times. He is looking for “enemies” abroad to distract from his internal problems. For example, he fell out with neighboring Ukraine, which has not been piping cheap Russian gas to Slovakia since the beginning of the year. As Slovakia previously passed on some of these supplies to other neighboring countries such as the Czech Republic, the income from this transit is now lost.
Trip to Moscow
Instead of sitting down at the table with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in this precarious situation, Fico made a surprise trip to Moscow to see Vladimir Putin shortly before Christmas. This not only completely irritated his own opposition in Slovakia, but also Brussels. Putin would like to continue sending Fico gas for his war chest.
It is still unclear whether gas from Azerbaijan will be transported to Slovakia via the Ukrainian pipelines. However, Fico escalated the dispute with Ukraine. He threatened to block future decisions on Ukraine in the EU, just like his Hungarian friend and colleague Viktor Orbán. According to Fico, there would be no NATO membership for Ukraine with him. “That would trigger a new world war.”
With his visit to Moscow and his verbal hostility towards Ukraine, Fico pleased his own clientele in Slovakia. According to polls, the majority of his voters are convinced that it was the West that triggered the war in Ukraine, not Putin.
The protests against Fico will continue
But there is also the other half of Slovaks who are most concerned about Fico’s rapprochement with Putin. Contrary to statements by a Fico party supporter that Slovakia does not have to remain in the Western alliances forever, the prime minister himself quickly rowed back: “The anchoring in the EU and NATO remains untouchable.“
In the days leading up to the announced demonstrations, Fico then massively stirred up fear. When the opposition wanted to table a motion of censure against him in parliament, Fico resorted to a trick, stifled the debate and warned of an impending “Maidan,” referring to the SIS security service, which was in his employ, and in camera. The opposition wanted to overthrow the government under the guidance of foreign NGOs. The National Security Council also called the situation “very serious.” Fico admitted that protests against the government were “allowed”, but only “within the framework of the applicable laws.”
There were no “Maidan-like incidents” during the protests. Fico nevertheless instructed the SIS to arrest and expel “foreign agents.”
The protests will continue. The next date is Feb. 7. It remains to be seen whether Fico can hold out under this pressure until the regular elections in 2027. He is already talking about the possibility of new elections this year. Hans-Jörg Schmidt
Events
Jan. 29, 2025; 9:30-11 a.m., online ECFR, DiscussionDon’t wait for Washington: What the EU can do for Ukraine and its own security The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) discusses the European foreign policy in face of the Trump presidency.INFO & REGISTRATION
Jan. 29, 2025; 10 a.m.-12 p.m., online HBS, PresentationLaunch of the Europe Sustainable Development Report 2025 The Heinrich Böll Foundation (HBS) discusses the Europe Sustainable Development Report 2025.INFO & REGISTRATION
Jan. 29, 2025; 4:40-6:10 p.m., Dresden (Germany)/online KAS, PresentationThe US Presidential Elections 2024 – Impacts in the United States and for US-German Relations The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) discusses the recent US Presidential elections and its impact on US-German relations.INFO & REGISTRATION
Jan. 30, 2025; 3-5 p.m., online ERCST, WorkshopSecond Stakeholders and Member States Consultation – Implementation and transposition of hydrogen regulations in the EU Member States The European Roundtable on Climate Change (ERCST) brainstorms the outline and content of the ERCST Research Project on the implementation and transposition of hydrogen regulations in the EU Member States.INFO & REGISTRATION
News
Foreign ministers give green light for easing Syria sanctions
The EU foreign ministers gave their approval on Monday for a gradual and comprehensive easing of the sanctions regime against Syria. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas emphasized that the political agreement must be followed by the technical implementation of the legal texts. This would be ready by the next meeting of foreign ministers in four weeks at the latest. So, it will take some time.
A roadmap envisages first easing the sanctions that hinder the reconstruction of the country as well as the movement of people and goods. For example, the punitive measures that stand in the way of repairing the energy supply. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock spoke of good news for the people of Syria. As an example of a company that could benefit from the easing of restrictions, Baerbock cited a Siemens power plant for electricity generation, which, due to the punitive measures, could not be maintained for years with support from Germany.
Arms embargo remains in place
In order to allow private investment in the country again, the sanctions against the financial system are also to be suspended and bank connections re-established. Exceptions for humanitarian aid are to apply indefinitely, as proposed in a non-paper by Germany and other EU states.
According to Kallas, the easing of sanctions is intended to help Syria get back on its feet. Specifically, the import of building materials, vehicles and other equipment should be made possible. According to diplomats, a comprehensive suspension is envisaged. The roadmap contains a negative list of what should remain under embargo.
The arms embargo against Syria will not be lifted, said Kallas. The import of equipment used for internal repression or surveillance is also to remain prohibited. The import of dual-use goods and the export of Syrian cultural goods will remain prohibited. Measures against exponents and entities of the Assad regime also remain in force.
Reports on executions
According to Kallas, the roadmap provides for the easing ofrestrictions to be reversed if the new rulers take steps that the EU considers to be in the wrong direction. The AFP news agency reported at the weekend that representatives of the new rulers had executed 35 officers and other representatives of the Assad regime within 72 hours.
The international community has imposed one of the most comprehensive sanctions regimes on Syria in the past decade. The EU has only imposed some of the punitive measures autonomously, while the majority have been imposed in the implementation of UN sanctions. It is more difficult to relax sanctions than to impose them, said a diplomat. sti
Annalena Baerbock
Russia sanctions: Hungary withdraws veto
Hungary has withdrawn its veto against the extension of Russia sanctions that expire at the end of January in exchange for assurances on energy security. At the meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels, the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán supported the decision that was necessary for the punitive measures to continue. Prior to this, the EU Commission and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas had issued a statement on demands from Budapest. In it, the Hungarians are assured that their concerns about energy security will be addressed.
To agree to the extension of sanctions, Orbán had initially demanded, among other things, that Ukraine reopens a recently closed pipeline that had previously transported Russian natural gas to Central Europe and thus also to Hungary.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó announced that Hungary had received the requested guarantees regarding energy security. The EU Commission had undertaken to protect the natural gas and oil pipelines to the EU member states and was now demanding assurances from Ukraine that it would secure the EU’s oil supply. At midday, Bloomberg reported that the Commission may not present its roadmap for phasing out gas imports from Russia until March 26 – a month later than expected. At the weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also signaled that he could possibly allow gas from Azerbaijan to pass through to the EU.
Orbán wanted to wait for Trump
Orbán had maintained his blockade against the extension of sanctions for several weeks. The decision was actually supposed to have been made last year. However, at the EU summit shortly before Christmas, Orbán announced that he still had to think about the matter and would only make a decision after the inauguration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump on Jan. 20.
The Republican has repeatedly stated that he could end the Russian war against Ukraine in a short space of time. From Orbán’s point of view, the basis for the sanctions would then no longer apply. He has repeatedly criticized them as useless and bad for the European economy. If Hungary had not agreed to the extension of the EU sanctions, they would have expired on Jan. 31. dpa
EU-Gipfel
Viktor Orban
EU Parliament: Constituent meeting of the upgraded Defense Committee
The German FDP politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann was elected Chair of the European Parliament’s Committee on Security and Defense (SEDE) at its constituent meeting on Monday. However, the exact responsibilities of the committee are being discussed behind the scenes.
“I am very pleased that the constituent meeting of SEDE as the new full committee of the European Parliament was a success today. The Parliament is thus taking into account the enormously increased importance of European security and defense policy,” said Strack-Zimmermann, who was Chair of the Defense Committee in the German Bundestag from 2021 to 2024, following her election. Parliament decided in December to upgrade the subcommittee to a fully-fledged committee.
Disputes over competencies with AFET and ITRE
Strack-Zimmermann emphasized that her committee should play a “comprehensive role” in all matters concerning the European Parliament. In her view, this means as a political observer, as a budgetary actor, but also as a legislator. She also explicitly mentioned the European Defense Industrial Program, EDIP.
From the outset, there were differences over the structure of SEDE and its competencies. The Industry Committee ITRE and the Foreign Affairs Committee AFET do not want to relinquish responsibility for the deliberations on the European Defense Industry Program (EDIP). This is the most important piece of defense legislation at the European level.
It is also not clear who is allowed to provide input for the White Paper of the EU Commissioner for Defense, Andrius Kubilius. Here, too, there are reportedly disputes between AFET and SEDE. An exchange between Kubilius and the newly upgraded committee on the White Paper is to take place today. It is to be presented on March 11. wp/sti
European Defense
ITRE
Cybersecurity Directive NIS-2: no implementation in Germany before the election
Talks on the implementation of the EU Cyber Security Directive NIS-2 in the German Bundestag have failed. This means that the implementation of the law to improve the protection of critical infrastructure against cyberattacks has been postponed by several months due to the new elections. Most recently, the FDP had hoped that the law would make it through the Bundestag before the new elections on Feb. 23. The CDU/CSU had already stated to the SPD and the Greens that they would no longer support the implementation of the remaining security laws.
“The FDP representatives were sitting at the table without procuration anyway, as the FDP is not prepared to make decisions without the CDU/CSU,” said SPD rapporteur Sebastian Hartmann on Monday. In his view, a compromise was not possible because the differences concerning strengthening the security authorities and protecting the industry were too great. “The result would have been a quick law, but a weakening of Germany’s cyber security,” said Hartmann.
Experts and industry for rapid implementation
Experts and industry, on the other hand, had previously advocated rapid implementation and called for the remaining differences to be addressed at a later date, possibly after the federal elections.
“The swift implementation of the requirements of the NIS-2 Directive by government and industry is key to arming the industrial location against digital threats in the best possible way,” Iris Plöger, member of the Executive Board of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), told Table.Briefings last week. The EU deadline for implementing the directive expired in October last year and the EU Commission has already initiated infringement proceedings. wp
Europäische Kommission
Agricultural Council: How Germany’s stance on contractual obligation could change
Federal Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir wants to “strongly support” the Commission’s proposals to improve the market power of farmers. In particular, he welcomed the measures to strengthen dairy farmers on the fringes of the Agriculture Council in Brussels on Monday. EU Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen had proposed making written contracts between producers and buyers mandatory in the dairy sector, among others.
Producer groups would be exempt from this – the right decision in Özdemir’s view. This would save bureaucracy, especially as the interests of dairy farmers are already represented in cooperatives. He also wants to work towards a low-bureaucracy implementation of the proposals.
However, if the CDU/CSU leads the future German government, Germany’s stance on the contractual obligation is likely to change. “The EU Commission’s objectives are well-intentioned, but the instrument would not work at all in reality,” says Albert Stegemann, agricultural policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, to Table.Briefings. He fears a new “bureaucracy monster.” It would make more sense to strengthen the innovative strength and competitiveness of cooperatives. Negotiations on the proposal will likely continue until after the change of government in Germany.
Simplifications for the organic sector
Opinions also differ among the agriculture ministers of the EU countries. Sweden, Denmark, Austria, Slovakia and Luxembourg, for example, were skeptical about a mandatory contract. In addition to Özdemir, his colleagues from France, Poland, Portugal, Lithuania and Finland were also in favor of mandatory contracts.
Meanwhile, Özdemir also demanded simplifications for the organic sector from the Commission at the Agriculture Council. Specifically, controls and reporting obligations between organic certification and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) should no longer be duplicated. The demands are based on recommendations made by an EU expert commission last fall. The Commission should present a plan on how it intends to implement them, Özdemir demanded.
16 other ministers supported this opinion in the Council. The German Federation of Organic Food Producers (BÖLW) also welcomed the initiative. Hansen announced that the Commission would endeavor to simplify the implementation of the EU Organic Regulation. However, he did not hold out the prospect of changes to the regulation itself. jd
Cem Özdemir
Opinion
No turning point in Eastern European research
By Gwendolyn Sasse
Gwendolyn Sasse heads the Center for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) in Berlin.
Olaf Scholz certainly wasn’t thinking of Eastern European studies on Feb. 27, 2022, when he spoke of the turning point. Term or not, the caesura caused by Russia’s major attack on Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022 is profound and requires a rethink that will affect many different but ultimately interconnected areas. This necessity does not stop at research on Eastern Europe, which deals with questions that help explain the war, documents it empirically and is confronted with the task of categorizing the events for the public and filling gaps in knowledge.
After Feb. 24, 2022, it suddenly became clear that Ukraine, Russia and the region of Eastern Europe as a whole, which defies precise geographical or political boundaries, were not present enough in the public discourse. The surprise at Russia’s invasion was correspondingly great. The fact that Russia’s war against Ukraine began with the annexation of Crimea in 2014, continued in the war in the Donbas and entered its third phase in 2022 was only addressed more comprehensively after the full-scale invasion began.
Eastern Europe experts from academia and think tanks became regular commentators in the media, including talk show formats. Various explanatory formats, podcasts and public events organized by research institutes, educational institutions and foundations met with great interest. In the meantime, this Eastern Europe boom is already dying down again. Even in times of crisis, learning processes remain ambivalent.
A prolonged war seems to overstretch the public attention span. Psychological mechanisms are increasingly suppressing the extent and consequences of the war, which go far beyond Ukraine and Russia. Populist vote catchers on the right and left of the party spectrum are mobilizing precisely this desire for distance from the unpleasant reality. The election campaigns at state level and now the federal election campaign show in their emphasis on peace – mind you, without a plan for how lasting peace can be achieved in Ukraine and Europe as a whole – that Ukraine and Eastern Europe continue to appear mentally more distant than a glance at the map or history would suggest.
Fewer professorships for research on Eastern Europe
The field of Eastern European Studies is and remains diffuse. It is an intersection of researchers from various academic disciplines. Among them, the humanities and social sciences are most prominently represented. Measured by the number of chairs, history, linguistics and cultural studies have more critical mass than the social sciences. Little has changed in the structures of research on Eastern Europe since February 2022. The dominant focus on Russia in Slavic studies will at best be replaced by more diversity in the medium term.
The number of professorships with a focus on Eastern Europe has continued to decline since February 2022. Of course, not only chairs with a corresponding title are dedicated to the region. There is also a need for stronger anchoring in comparative research. Relevant research also takes place at specialized non-university institutes. There have been and continue to be project funding initiatives related to Eastern Europe, for example from the BMBF or foundations, but with a few exceptions, no systematic prioritization can be identified here.
It is unclear whether the new specialist networks will become established
One effect of the war is the expanded networks of scientists working on the effects of the war from different perspectives and disciplines, including the natural sciences. The presence of refugee scientists plays a key role here. However, personal networks do not automatically become sustainable structures.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has visibly underlined the relevance of Eastern Europe for everyone, but the financial, structural and societal consequences are wide open. It is therefore too early to speak of a turning point in Eastern European studies.
The Strategic Dialog on the future of the automotive industry starts on Thursday. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is inviting the CEOs of manufacturers and suppliers to the Commission for a first round between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. Apart from the key dates, little is known to the participants about the course of the dialog. This is causing a frown in the industry.
The industry association VDA is downright disconcerted by the composition. The fact that “not a single company from the SME sector was invited to the kick-off event,” whereas the environmental NGO T&E was, “raises doubts as to whether the Commission has fully recognized the challenges facing our industry and the associated necessary discussion partners.”
The umbrella organization of environmental associations T&E is one of the environmental NGOs that have contracts with the Commission. The spokesperson for VDA President Hildegard Müller says: “The fact that the EU Commission actively commissions climate and environmental organizations, including T&E, to influence the voting behavior of EU parliamentarians is a scandal.” Especially given the lack of transparency, which is otherwise rightly demanded in all areas, the procedure is questionable. The spokesperson continued: “If the EU is serious about the strategic dialog with the European automotive industry, this behavior must be corrected or stopped.”
A personnel change at the Strategic Dialog is also causing concern among manufacturers. An official from the Secretariat-General of the Commission, who was Vice President of the NGO Agora Verkehrswende from 2019 to 2022 before returning to the Commission, was named as the contact person for queries regarding the format and participants. However, the Commission has stated that the official has no influence on the content of the discussion format.
Get through the day safely!
Your Markus Grabitz
Feature
Russia’s war of aggression: speculation about talks between Trump and Putin
There is currently much speculation as to whether US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have something like a good personal relationship. Susan Stewart, Senior Fellow in the Eastern Europe Research Group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), believes this is a misconception. The idea that Trump and Putin can come up with a “quick deal” in a personal conversation is also unlikely. This is because “the levers of influence the USA has over Russia are limited,” analyzes Russia expert Margarete Klein. It is not sufficiently understood in the Trump camp that this war for Russia is “embedded in a longer confrontation with the West.”
There is currently no strong pressure on Moscow to find a quick agreement: Russian forces are gradually conquering more territory in Ukraine. Particularly in the south, on the Sea of Azov, they are succeeding in widening the land corridor to Crimea. At the same time, surveys conducted by the independent opinion research center Levada in Russia show that people’s general satisfaction with life is very high. The economy has also adapted to the new wartime normality, while the regime is careful not to repeat the mistakes of the Soviet Union and not to exaggerate the militarization of the economy. Putin succeeds in lulling society into a sense of security, making it forget the war.
Plan for a peace agreement entirely unclear
According to SWP expert Klein, “the new administration has notyet developed a US strategy” in relation to Russia. Trump’s special representative for Ukraine, former Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, has presented a kind of master plan. In a paper published by the arch-conservative think tank “American First Policy Institute” (AFPI), he names possible bases for talks with Russia. The USA will offer to “postpone Ukraine’s NATO membership for an extended period in return for a comprehensive and verifiable peace agreement with security guarantees.” A freeze of the conflict at a ceasefire line and the lifting of sanctions are also envisaged.
What a peace agreement should look like is entirely unclear. And who should secure it. Recent statements by Trump to withdraw 20,000 US troops from Europe suggest that the US president is planning to use European troops for this purpose. The withdrawal can also be seen in Moscow as a sign that Trump has no interest in Europe. According to Klein, there should be concern about a possible “fake solution”. “Trump can then present himself as a dealmaker without the conflict being resolved in the long term.”
The new US Secretary of State Rubio speaks of a ‘stalemate’
According to Reuters, Trump confidants last confirmed in mid-January that it would “take months” to reach a solution. The president also understood this. Trump’s promise to end the war in 24 hours was a “combination of campaign bluster and a lack of understanding of the complexity of this conflict”. “There will be no quick solution,” Ukraine expert Stewart is certain.
It will be interesting to see what role the new US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will play. Shortly after his inauguration at the beginning of last week, he clarified that both Russia and Ukraine would have to make “concessions.” There had been a “stalemate” on the battlefield. Unlike President Trump, however, Rubio is holding back on details or a schedule. The issue is “complicated” and therefore “we won’t get ahead of ourselves by talking about negotiations at his level.”
Arms aid for Ukraine highly controversial among Republicans
However, Rubio is not expected to advocate an increase in arms aid for Ukraine either. Last year, he voted against a bill by former President Joe Biden to provide Ukraine with billions more in arms aid. Support for Ukraine remains highly controversial in the Republican Party. At the end of last year, 42 percent of Republicans said that the USA was providing too much support. Only 36 percent still believe that the USA is obliged to help Ukraine against the Russian aggressor.
The withdrawal of arms aid is also part of Kellogg’s plan if Ukraine is not willing to engage in talks. However, a previously planned trip by Kellogg to Kyiv has been postponed for the time being. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Moscow has already “made fun” of Kellogg’s plans. The WSJ commented on how great Kellogg’s influence on President Trump really is: “He’ll just do what Trump tells him.”With Viktor Funk
Translation missing.
Protests in Slovakia: Fico comes under increasing pressure
Around 100,000 people in 30 cities demonstrated against the course of the Slovakian government under Prime Minister Robert Fico at the weekend. 60,000 people gathered in the capital Bratislava alone. The last time Slovakia experienced protests on this scale was in 2018, following the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée. At the time, Fico had to resign as prime minister. The 60-year-old left-wing nationalist, who is prime minister for the fourth time, now wants to prevent such a scenario at all costs.
Fico heads a three-party coalition and was initially able to rely on 79 out of 150 MPs in parliament. But the former majority is meltingaway. Four MPs have repeatedly refused to support the government’s policies. And three renegades from the rather unpredictable national party SNS are demanding more power – for themselves, including a ministerial post.
Dispute with Ukraine as a welcome distraction
The government is also under pressure in terms of content. Social benefits, which Fico had promised in abundance, failed to materialize. Instead, the government had to put together a consolidation package to tackle the national debt. Among other things, this includes an increase in VAT, including on food. This is not going down well with Fico’s voters either. The government’s authoritarian interventions in the judiciary, public media and culture are also controversial.
In response to the criticism, Fico took the path he had already taken in earlier times. He is looking for “enemies” abroad to distract from his internal problems. For example, he fell out with neighboring Ukraine, which has not been piping cheap Russian gas to Slovakia since the beginning of the year. As Slovakia previously passed on some of these supplies to other neighboring countries such as the Czech Republic, the income from this transit is now lost.
Trip to Moscow
Instead of sitting down at the table with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in this precarious situation, Fico made a surprise trip to Moscow to see Vladimir Putin shortly before Christmas. This not only completely irritated his own opposition in Slovakia, but also Brussels. Putin would like to continue sending Fico gas for his war chest.
It is still unclear whether gas from Azerbaijan will be transported to Slovakia via the Ukrainian pipelines. However, Fico escalated the dispute with Ukraine. He threatened to block future decisions on Ukraine in the EU, just like his Hungarian friend and colleague Viktor Orbán. According to Fico, there would be no NATO membership for Ukraine with him. “That would trigger a new world war.”
With his visit to Moscow and his verbal hostility towards Ukraine, Fico pleased his own clientele in Slovakia. According to polls, the majority of his voters are convinced that it was the West that triggered the war in Ukraine, not Putin.
The protests against Fico will continue
But there is also the other half of Slovaks who are most concerned about Fico’s rapprochement with Putin. Contrary to statements by a Fico party supporter that Slovakia does not have to remain in the Western alliances forever, the prime minister himself quickly rowed back: “The anchoring in the EU and NATO remains untouchable.“
In the days leading up to the announced demonstrations, Fico then massively stirred up fear. When the opposition wanted to table a motion of censure against him in parliament, Fico resorted to a trick, stifled the debate and warned of an impending “Maidan,” referring to the SIS security service, which was in his employ, and in camera. The opposition wanted to overthrow the government under the guidance of foreign NGOs. The National Security Council also called the situation “very serious.” Fico admitted that protests against the government were “allowed”, but only “within the framework of the applicable laws.”
There were no “Maidan-like incidents” during the protests. Fico nevertheless instructed the SIS to arrest and expel “foreign agents.”
The protests will continue. The next date is Feb. 7. It remains to be seen whether Fico can hold out under this pressure until the regular elections in 2027. He is already talking about the possibility of new elections this year. Hans-Jörg Schmidt
Events
Jan. 29, 2025; 9:30-11 a.m., online ECFR, DiscussionDon’t wait for Washington: What the EU can do for Ukraine and its own security The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) discusses the European foreign policy in face of the Trump presidency.INFO & REGISTRATION
Jan. 29, 2025; 10 a.m.-12 p.m., online HBS, PresentationLaunch of the Europe Sustainable Development Report 2025 The Heinrich Böll Foundation (HBS) discusses the Europe Sustainable Development Report 2025.INFO & REGISTRATION
Jan. 29, 2025; 4:40-6:10 p.m., Dresden (Germany)/online KAS, PresentationThe US Presidential Elections 2024 – Impacts in the United States and for US-German Relations The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) discusses the recent US Presidential elections and its impact on US-German relations.INFO & REGISTRATION
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News
Foreign ministers give green light for easing Syria sanctions
The EU foreign ministers gave their approval on Monday for a gradual and comprehensive easing of the sanctions regime against Syria. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas emphasized that the political agreement must be followed by the technical implementation of the legal texts. This would be ready by the next meeting of foreign ministers in four weeks at the latest. So, it will take some time.
A roadmap envisages first easing the sanctions that hinder the reconstruction of the country as well as the movement of people and goods. For example, the punitive measures that stand in the way of repairing the energy supply. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock spoke of good news for the people of Syria. As an example of a company that could benefit from the easing of restrictions, Baerbock cited a Siemens power plant for electricity generation, which, due to the punitive measures, could not be maintained for years with support from Germany.
Arms embargo remains in place
In order to allow private investment in the country again, the sanctions against the financial system are also to be suspended and bank connections re-established. Exceptions for humanitarian aid are to apply indefinitely, as proposed in a non-paper by Germany and other EU states.
According to Kallas, the easing of sanctions is intended to help Syria get back on its feet. Specifically, the import of building materials, vehicles and other equipment should be made possible. According to diplomats, a comprehensive suspension is envisaged. The roadmap contains a negative list of what should remain under embargo.
The arms embargo against Syria will not be lifted, said Kallas. The import of equipment used for internal repression or surveillance is also to remain prohibited. The import of dual-use goods and the export of Syrian cultural goods will remain prohibited. Measures against exponents and entities of the Assad regime also remain in force.
Reports on executions
According to Kallas, the roadmap provides for the easing ofrestrictions to be reversed if the new rulers take steps that the EU considers to be in the wrong direction. The AFP news agency reported at the weekend that representatives of the new rulers had executed 35 officers and other representatives of the Assad regime within 72 hours.
The international community has imposed one of the most comprehensive sanctions regimes on Syria in the past decade. The EU has only imposed some of the punitive measures autonomously, while the majority have been imposed in the implementation of UN sanctions. It is more difficult to relax sanctions than to impose them, said a diplomat. sti
Annalena Baerbock
Russia sanctions: Hungary withdraws veto
Hungary has withdrawn its veto against the extension of Russia sanctions that expire at the end of January in exchange for assurances on energy security. At the meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels, the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán supported the decision that was necessary for the punitive measures to continue. Prior to this, the EU Commission and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas had issued a statement on demands from Budapest. In it, the Hungarians are assured that their concerns about energy security will be addressed.
To agree to the extension of sanctions, Orbán had initially demanded, among other things, that Ukraine reopens a recently closed pipeline that had previously transported Russian natural gas to Central Europe and thus also to Hungary.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó announced that Hungary had received the requested guarantees regarding energy security. The EU Commission had undertaken to protect the natural gas and oil pipelines to the EU member states and was now demanding assurances from Ukraine that it would secure the EU’s oil supply. At midday, Bloomberg reported that the Commission may not present its roadmap for phasing out gas imports from Russia until March 26 – a month later than expected. At the weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also signaled that he could possibly allow gas from Azerbaijan to pass through to the EU.
Orbán wanted to wait for Trump
Orbán had maintained his blockade against the extension of sanctions for several weeks. The decision was actually supposed to have been made last year. However, at the EU summit shortly before Christmas, Orbán announced that he still had to think about the matter and would only make a decision after the inauguration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump on Jan. 20.
The Republican has repeatedly stated that he could end the Russian war against Ukraine in a short space of time. From Orbán’s point of view, the basis for the sanctions would then no longer apply. He has repeatedly criticized them as useless and bad for the European economy. If Hungary had not agreed to the extension of the EU sanctions, they would have expired on Jan. 31. dpa
EU-Gipfel
Viktor Orban
EU Parliament: Constituent meeting of the upgraded Defense Committee
The German FDP politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann was elected Chair of the European Parliament’s Committee on Security and Defense (SEDE) at its constituent meeting on Monday. However, the exact responsibilities of the committee are being discussed behind the scenes.
“I am very pleased that the constituent meeting of SEDE as the new full committee of the European Parliament was a success today. The Parliament is thus taking into account the enormously increased importance of European security and defense policy,” said Strack-Zimmermann, who was Chair of the Defense Committee in the German Bundestag from 2021 to 2024, following her election. Parliament decided in December to upgrade the subcommittee to a fully-fledged committee.
Disputes over competencies with AFET and ITRE
Strack-Zimmermann emphasized that her committee should play a “comprehensive role” in all matters concerning the European Parliament. In her view, this means as a political observer, as a budgetary actor, but also as a legislator. She also explicitly mentioned the European Defense Industrial Program, EDIP.
From the outset, there were differences over the structure of SEDE and its competencies. The Industry Committee ITRE and the Foreign Affairs Committee AFET do not want to relinquish responsibility for the deliberations on the European Defense Industry Program (EDIP). This is the most important piece of defense legislation at the European level.
It is also not clear who is allowed to provide input for the White Paper of the EU Commissioner for Defense, Andrius Kubilius. Here, too, there are reportedly disputes between AFET and SEDE. An exchange between Kubilius and the newly upgraded committee on the White Paper is to take place today. It is to be presented on March 11. wp/sti
European Defense
ITRE
Cybersecurity Directive NIS-2: no implementation in Germany before the election
Talks on the implementation of the EU Cyber Security Directive NIS-2 in the German Bundestag have failed. This means that the implementation of the law to improve the protection of critical infrastructure against cyberattacks has been postponed by several months due to the new elections. Most recently, the FDP had hoped that the law would make it through the Bundestag before the new elections on Feb. 23. The CDU/CSU had already stated to the SPD and the Greens that they would no longer support the implementation of the remaining security laws.
“The FDP representatives were sitting at the table without procuration anyway, as the FDP is not prepared to make decisions without the CDU/CSU,” said SPD rapporteur Sebastian Hartmann on Monday. In his view, a compromise was not possible because the differences concerning strengthening the security authorities and protecting the industry were too great. “The result would have been a quick law, but a weakening of Germany’s cyber security,” said Hartmann.
Experts and industry for rapid implementation
Experts and industry, on the other hand, had previously advocated rapid implementation and called for the remaining differences to be addressed at a later date, possibly after the federal elections.
“The swift implementation of the requirements of the NIS-2 Directive by government and industry is key to arming the industrial location against digital threats in the best possible way,” Iris Plöger, member of the Executive Board of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), told Table.Briefings last week. The EU deadline for implementing the directive expired in October last year and the EU Commission has already initiated infringement proceedings. wp
Europäische Kommission
Agricultural Council: How Germany’s stance on contractual obligation could change
Federal Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir wants to “strongly support” the Commission’s proposals to improve the market power of farmers. In particular, he welcomed the measures to strengthen dairy farmers on the fringes of the Agriculture Council in Brussels on Monday. EU Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen had proposed making written contracts between producers and buyers mandatory in the dairy sector, among others.
Producer groups would be exempt from this – the right decision in Özdemir’s view. This would save bureaucracy, especially as the interests of dairy farmers are already represented in cooperatives. He also wants to work towards a low-bureaucracy implementation of the proposals.
However, if the CDU/CSU leads the future German government, Germany’s stance on the contractual obligation is likely to change. “The EU Commission’s objectives are well-intentioned, but the instrument would not work at all in reality,” says Albert Stegemann, agricultural policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, to Table.Briefings. He fears a new “bureaucracy monster.” It would make more sense to strengthen the innovative strength and competitiveness of cooperatives. Negotiations on the proposal will likely continue until after the change of government in Germany.
Simplifications for the organic sector
Opinions also differ among the agriculture ministers of the EU countries. Sweden, Denmark, Austria, Slovakia and Luxembourg, for example, were skeptical about a mandatory contract. In addition to Özdemir, his colleagues from France, Poland, Portugal, Lithuania and Finland were also in favor of mandatory contracts.
Meanwhile, Özdemir also demanded simplifications for the organic sector from the Commission at the Agriculture Council. Specifically, controls and reporting obligations between organic certification and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) should no longer be duplicated. The demands are based on recommendations made by an EU expert commission last fall. The Commission should present a plan on how it intends to implement them, Özdemir demanded.
16 other ministers supported this opinion in the Council. The German Federation of Organic Food Producers (BÖLW) also welcomed the initiative. Hansen announced that the Commission would endeavor to simplify the implementation of the EU Organic Regulation. However, he did not hold out the prospect of changes to the regulation itself. jd
Cem Özdemir
Opinion
No turning point in Eastern European research
By Gwendolyn Sasse
Gwendolyn Sasse heads the Center for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) in Berlin.
Olaf Scholz certainly wasn’t thinking of Eastern European studies on Feb. 27, 2022, when he spoke of the turning point. Term or not, the caesura caused by Russia’s major attack on Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022 is profound and requires a rethink that will affect many different but ultimately interconnected areas. This necessity does not stop at research on Eastern Europe, which deals with questions that help explain the war, documents it empirically and is confronted with the task of categorizing the events for the public and filling gaps in knowledge.
After Feb. 24, 2022, it suddenly became clear that Ukraine, Russia and the region of Eastern Europe as a whole, which defies precise geographical or political boundaries, were not present enough in the public discourse. The surprise at Russia’s invasion was correspondingly great. The fact that Russia’s war against Ukraine began with the annexation of Crimea in 2014, continued in the war in the Donbas and entered its third phase in 2022 was only addressed more comprehensively after the full-scale invasion began.
Eastern Europe experts from academia and think tanks became regular commentators in the media, including talk show formats. Various explanatory formats, podcasts and public events organized by research institutes, educational institutions and foundations met with great interest. In the meantime, this Eastern Europe boom is already dying down again. Even in times of crisis, learning processes remain ambivalent.
A prolonged war seems to overstretch the public attention span. Psychological mechanisms are increasingly suppressing the extent and consequences of the war, which go far beyond Ukraine and Russia. Populist vote catchers on the right and left of the party spectrum are mobilizing precisely this desire for distance from the unpleasant reality. The election campaigns at state level and now the federal election campaign show in their emphasis on peace – mind you, without a plan for how lasting peace can be achieved in Ukraine and Europe as a whole – that Ukraine and Eastern Europe continue to appear mentally more distant than a glance at the map or history would suggest.
Fewer professorships for research on Eastern Europe
The field of Eastern European Studies is and remains diffuse. It is an intersection of researchers from various academic disciplines. Among them, the humanities and social sciences are most prominently represented. Measured by the number of chairs, history, linguistics and cultural studies have more critical mass than the social sciences. Little has changed in the structures of research on Eastern Europe since February 2022. The dominant focus on Russia in Slavic studies will at best be replaced by more diversity in the medium term.
The number of professorships with a focus on Eastern Europe has continued to decline since February 2022. Of course, not only chairs with a corresponding title are dedicated to the region. There is also a need for stronger anchoring in comparative research. Relevant research also takes place at specialized non-university institutes. There have been and continue to be project funding initiatives related to Eastern Europe, for example from the BMBF or foundations, but with a few exceptions, no systematic prioritization can be identified here.
It is unclear whether the new specialist networks will become established
One effect of the war is the expanded networks of scientists working on the effects of the war from different perspectives and disciplines, including the natural sciences. The presence of refugee scientists plays a key role here. However, personal networks do not automatically become sustainable structures.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has visibly underlined the relevance of Eastern Europe for everyone, but the financial, structural and societal consequences are wide open. It is therefore too early to speak of a turning point in Eastern European studies.
