It is not news that Industry Commissioner Thierry Breton has a lot of confidence in himself. He has succeeded in stepping out of the perma-shadow in which the vice presidents have remained behind Ursula von der Leyen for the past four years and into the light of public perception. While our colleague Jakob Hanke Vela once again reports on the Frenchman’s personal Plan B, Europe.Table is entering the debate today with an original personnel speculation.
It goes like this: After the European elections, the heads of state and government could once again put together a personnel package. At the moment, bets are on that the incumbent, Ursula von der Leyen, might have a lasting interest in NATO after all, despite assurances to the contrary. The breeding ground for this rumor is that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been persuaded to extend his term of office, even though he already has a fixed follow-up appointment. This umpteenth extension could end just when the Berlaymont chief regularly ends her EU mandate sometime shortly before Christmas 2024.
This could lead to a reshuffle of the top jobs. Von der Leyen would go to NATO. Instead of Germany, France could provide the Commission President in the future and nominate the current ECB chief Christine Lagarde for the post. Germany could provide the ECB chief for the first time and send Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel into the race. This would certainly meet with approval both in the Willy Brandt House and in the Green Party headquarters. This would clear the way for a Green commissioner from Germany. No, not a Green, it has to be a Green. Maybe Terry Reintke or Franziska Brantner? Does that sound like steep theses? We shall see.
The Spanish government is making speed in its Council Presidency on the extension of majority voting. Spain has announced a “concrete proposal” for decisions in the body of member states with qualified majority in the area of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) for the fall. This was announced by the Permanent Representation in Brussels in its “preview report” to the German government on the third quarter in Brussels.
Until now, decisions in foreign and security policy have been taken unanimously in the Council. For a long time, there have been efforts to have more decisions voted on by qualified majority. The German government supports the idea and in May initiated a “Group of Friends” at EU level, which eight other member states have joined.
Another high-priority issue is the de-risking of strategically important industrial goods. With the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA), for example, the EU wants to become less dependent on Chinese cleantech imports. The general direction of the NZIA is what the Spanish Council Presidency is aiming for at the Competitiveness Council in December, the preview says.
Important decarbonization laws, on the other hand, are already in the trilogues or about to be. According to the paper, negotiations on the methane regulation are to begin in the fall, and trilogues on the buildings directive and the gas and hydrogen package are continuing. The general orientation on the electricity market regulation, on the other hand, is still pending. According to current plans, all these energy dossiers are to be concluded under the Spanish Council Presidency. The situation is more restrained with regard to the energy tax directive. The Council Presidency has “generally indicated its interest in continuing the discussions”. However, several member states would exert pressure to reach a conclusion “as soon as possible”.
The trilogue negotiations for the controversial Commission proposals on renaturation and the Industrial Emissions Directive are to be started and those on the F-Gas Regulation are to be concluded. The Nature Restoration Law (NRL) in particular will continue to cause political disputes, as it has already become apparent during the intra-institutional negotiations in the Council and Parliament that the positions among the political groups and member states are sometimes far apart. The Spanish Council Presidency will have to play a key role in mediation in order to clarify the open questions, for example on the rewetting of peatlands or the financing of renaturation measures.
The Environment Council in October is also expected to produce agreements on the revision of the Municipal Wastewater Directive (KARL) and on emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles and trucks. For the certification framework on carbon extraction, agreement is to be found at ambassador level in order to start trilogue negotiations before the end of the fall.
The Council Presidency also wants to update the EU target for CO2 reductions by 2030 (Nationally Determined Contribution, NDC), as announced last year. An increase to minus 57 percent compared to 1990 (currently minus 55 percent) is possible. The EU negotiating mandate for the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai (COP28) also still has to be finalized among the member states. The question here will be what role technological CO2 reductions play and how clearly the EU countries call for the end of fossil fuels.
Among the digital dossiers, one piece of legislation in particular is the focus of interest: the AI Act. The next trilogue negotiations are scheduled for Oct. 3 and 26. The Spanish have already made it clear that they want to conclude the negotiations during their own Council presidency. The discussion on generative AI and foundation models, which the Commission did not include in its proposal, will be exciting. In contrast, work on the AI liability directive is at a standstill. Because of the many references to the AI Regulation, Parliament and the Council do not want to resume work here until the AI Act has been passed.
Also highly exciting: the perennial topic of fair share. The issue here is whether companies such as Amazon, Google, Meta or Netflix, which are responsible for large amounts of data traffic, should share the costs of network expansion. This is what some network operators such as Telekom or Telefónica would like to see. Opinion is divided on this in the Commission, which is why it has initiated an “open-ended” consultation on the future of the networks and their infrastructure that goes beyond the issue of fair share.
The Commission actually wanted to have already presented the submissions to the consultation, but has postponed this until after the summer break. At the informal Telecommunications Council in Léon in October, the member states now want to hold a political debate on the consultation, which will most likely be very controversial. While France has great sympathy for fair share, the German government’s position is not so clear. Other countries, such as the Netherlands, clearly reject it. Following the discussion, the Commission plans to “present, if appropriate, new legislative proposals to improve and secure the telecommunications ecosystem“.
In addition, consultations on the related Gigabit Infrastructure Act (GIA) would continue. The Spanish are planning to present a general orientation for the GIA at the Telecommunications Council in December. At the Ecofin Council, also to be held in December, the Spanish want to present a progress report on the digital Euro. The ECB is working on this in parallel.
Germany is on the losing end of the regulation to prevent and combat the abuse of children (Child Sexual Abuse Material, CSAM). The Spanish want to reach a General Approach at the end of September. Germany rejects key elements of the draft, especially the inclusion of encrypted communications in the scope of the regulation. However, according to the EU embassy, this position is unlikely to find much support in the negotiations. With Manuel Berkel, Lukas Scheid, Corinna Visser
For three weeks, the various bodies of the International Seabed Authority (ISA) met in Jamaica’s capital Kingston to answer a complex question: Should the ISA approve the mining of raw materials in the deep sea in the future? After failing to meet the deadline for a corresponding set of rules, the authority now wants to complete them by 2025 at the earliest. So for the time being, there is no green light for deep-sea mining.
Since the expiry of the so-called two-year period, which the Pacific island state of Nauru triggered with a mining application, further applications can theoretically be received by the Seabed Authority. However, all states agree that no mining of raw materials should take place without appropriate regulation. The ISA member states (167 states plus the EU) now want to take even more time to develop regulations for mining applications. The ISA is to adopt these regulations in 2025 at the earliest; if necessary, the states could once again flexibly adjust the schedule.
Opponents of deep-sea mining saw this as a clear signal. In the run-up, more and more countries had joined the call for a moratorium to apply until the environmental consequences of mining critical raw materials such as manganese, nickel or rare earths in the deep sea are better researched.
The German government’s delegation – consisting of representatives from the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Federal Ministry of the Environment, the Federal Ministry of Finance and the Federal Foreign Office – is lobbying for a “precautionary pause” in an alliance with France, Costa Rica, Brazil, Spain, Finland, New Zealand and several Pacific island countries. In a joint statement, they said a work plan for mining requires sufficient and adequate scientific information, and cannot be approved until the agency adopts complete, environmentally sound rules, regulations and procedures.
During the negotiations, other countries such as Brazil and Canada joined this alliance. “Now it is important that even more states join in and thus give priority to protection and research“, explained a spokesperson for the German Ministry for the Environment. “The German government will contribute to the continuation of negotiations on mining regulations with ambitious proposals and minimum requirements to ensure that any deep-sea mining does not have negative consequences for the unique biodiversity and marine environment of the deep sea.”
However, the call for a moratorium did not even make it onto the agenda at the meeting of member states: states that advocate an early start to deep-sea mining succeeded in rejecting this debate. According to information from Table.Media, the Chinese delegation in particular was a driving force. Great Britain, Norway and Mexico are also pushing for a set of rules to be established as soon as possible and for mining to begin.
Nevertheless, the states were able to agree on individual projects: At the upcoming General Assembly in July 2024, a “General Policy” for the protection and preservation of the marine environment is to be developed that follows the precautionary principle. They are also initiating a systematic review of ISAs, which should have taken place as early as 2022 under the International Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The German delegation had submitted a proposal for this.
In the past, there has been criticism of the functioning of the agency and the neutrality of the ISA General Secretariat. Franziska Brantner, Parliamentary State Secretary at the BMWK, had written a letter to Secretary General Michael Lodge (only available in German) in March expressing “serious concern” about his attempts to exert unilateral influence on delegations. Several diplomats from member states had reported these allegations. “All states parties to the conventions must be able to trust that the Secretariat will respect its duty of neutrality”, Brantner wrote.
During the negotiations of the past three weeks, the General Secretariat has been criticized for restricting the participation of the press and observers from civil society and preventing protests. “The fact that journalists are not allowed into the plenary hall and NGOs are expelled from the plenary hall during critical phases of the negotiations, while state delegations are filled with representatives of mining companies, is deeply disconcerting”, says Martin Webeler of the Environmental Justice Foundation, who was on the ground in Jamaica. The ISA in its current form is unsuitable as a regulator, he adds.
The NGO, a member of the international Deep Sea Conservation Coalition, is therefore calling for comprehensive reform of the Seabed Authority: It also says there is an urgent need to improve transparency and accountability in decision-making – for example, by giving the public access to relevant information and providing opportunities for participation in the deliberations of the Legal and Technical Commission (LTC). The composition of the LTC also needs to be changed to include expertise in marine biology and conservation that has been lacking so far, so that the ISA can fulfill its mandate to protect the marine environment. Potential conflicts of interest of members should be avoided through an independent, regular review process.
In addition to the administration, the Environmental Justice Foundation and other critics say broader reforms need to be made to the ISA’s structures. For example, the criteria for selecting council members are not sufficiently understandable, they say. The ISA Council, which is responsible for approving mining projects and is currently negotiating the rules, consists of 36 members who are “selected according to regional as well as economic aspects”. Germany is also one of the members. As long as these structures are not credible, transparent and independent, “no legitimate decisions on deep-sea mining can be made in the interest of all humanity”.
As much as we appreciate your attention, on warm summer days you might want to read something other than Analyses and News about the EU. That’s why you’ll find book tips from our editorial team here from time to time in the coming weeks. This time, our editor Lukas Scheid tells us what he’s currently reading and which books keep popping into his head when he needs a break.
Michael Lüders: Hubris in the Hindu Kush. How the West Failed in Afghanistan
This summer, I’m launching a geopolitical analysis of the Western military’s failed Afghanistan mission. A bit of history lesson, hardly any cynicism, instead relentless analytical review from the perspective of a longtime correspondent. Whether the West was bound to fail with its naïve plan to build a stable state from Kabul is, of course, something of a speculation. But Lüders underpins his theses with plenty of context, historical knowledge, and startling details, without losing me with too much political nit-picking. And it’s beautifully written, of course. Hard to believe, but it’s almost entertaining to revisit the topic almost two years after the hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Nando Parrado: 72 Days in Hell. How I survived the crash in the Andes
The four siblings who survived a plane crash and then 40 days on their own in the Amazon almost inevitably reminded me of the story of the Uruguayan rugby team that crashed in the Andes in 1972. Rarely has an account of the experience fascinated me as much as the accounts of Nando Parrado, who survived the crash and initiated the rescue himself after more than two months. In Uruguay, he and the 15 other survivors are folk heroes; here, they are hardly known. But we have all heard of their story somewhere – especially because of the cannibalism during the struggle for survival. Very few know the details, motivations and backgrounds. Not exactly a feel-good book either, but impressive nonetheless.
Peter Matthiessen: The Snow Leopard
I’m afraid you can’t get more feel-good these days. Matthiessen wants to come to terms with the death of his wife and sets off with a scientist to the Nepalese Dolpo in the Himalayas. The practicing Buddhist is fascinated by the almost invisible animal, the snow leopard, which he would love to see with his own eyes. The tranquility Matthiessen describes in the mountains also has a meditative effect on the reader. Those who fear loneliness and are just as fascinated by it will find themselves in his thoughts.
It is not news that Industry Commissioner Thierry Breton has a lot of confidence in himself. He has succeeded in stepping out of the perma-shadow in which the vice presidents have remained behind Ursula von der Leyen for the past four years and into the light of public perception. While our colleague Jakob Hanke Vela once again reports on the Frenchman’s personal Plan B, Europe.Table is entering the debate today with an original personnel speculation.
It goes like this: After the European elections, the heads of state and government could once again put together a personnel package. At the moment, bets are on that the incumbent, Ursula von der Leyen, might have a lasting interest in NATO after all, despite assurances to the contrary. The breeding ground for this rumor is that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been persuaded to extend his term of office, even though he already has a fixed follow-up appointment. This umpteenth extension could end just when the Berlaymont chief regularly ends her EU mandate sometime shortly before Christmas 2024.
This could lead to a reshuffle of the top jobs. Von der Leyen would go to NATO. Instead of Germany, France could provide the Commission President in the future and nominate the current ECB chief Christine Lagarde for the post. Germany could provide the ECB chief for the first time and send Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel into the race. This would certainly meet with approval both in the Willy Brandt House and in the Green Party headquarters. This would clear the way for a Green commissioner from Germany. No, not a Green, it has to be a Green. Maybe Terry Reintke or Franziska Brantner? Does that sound like steep theses? We shall see.
The Spanish government is making speed in its Council Presidency on the extension of majority voting. Spain has announced a “concrete proposal” for decisions in the body of member states with qualified majority in the area of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) for the fall. This was announced by the Permanent Representation in Brussels in its “preview report” to the German government on the third quarter in Brussels.
Until now, decisions in foreign and security policy have been taken unanimously in the Council. For a long time, there have been efforts to have more decisions voted on by qualified majority. The German government supports the idea and in May initiated a “Group of Friends” at EU level, which eight other member states have joined.
Another high-priority issue is the de-risking of strategically important industrial goods. With the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA), for example, the EU wants to become less dependent on Chinese cleantech imports. The general direction of the NZIA is what the Spanish Council Presidency is aiming for at the Competitiveness Council in December, the preview says.
Important decarbonization laws, on the other hand, are already in the trilogues or about to be. According to the paper, negotiations on the methane regulation are to begin in the fall, and trilogues on the buildings directive and the gas and hydrogen package are continuing. The general orientation on the electricity market regulation, on the other hand, is still pending. According to current plans, all these energy dossiers are to be concluded under the Spanish Council Presidency. The situation is more restrained with regard to the energy tax directive. The Council Presidency has “generally indicated its interest in continuing the discussions”. However, several member states would exert pressure to reach a conclusion “as soon as possible”.
The trilogue negotiations for the controversial Commission proposals on renaturation and the Industrial Emissions Directive are to be started and those on the F-Gas Regulation are to be concluded. The Nature Restoration Law (NRL) in particular will continue to cause political disputes, as it has already become apparent during the intra-institutional negotiations in the Council and Parliament that the positions among the political groups and member states are sometimes far apart. The Spanish Council Presidency will have to play a key role in mediation in order to clarify the open questions, for example on the rewetting of peatlands or the financing of renaturation measures.
The Environment Council in October is also expected to produce agreements on the revision of the Municipal Wastewater Directive (KARL) and on emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles and trucks. For the certification framework on carbon extraction, agreement is to be found at ambassador level in order to start trilogue negotiations before the end of the fall.
The Council Presidency also wants to update the EU target for CO2 reductions by 2030 (Nationally Determined Contribution, NDC), as announced last year. An increase to minus 57 percent compared to 1990 (currently minus 55 percent) is possible. The EU negotiating mandate for the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai (COP28) also still has to be finalized among the member states. The question here will be what role technological CO2 reductions play and how clearly the EU countries call for the end of fossil fuels.
Among the digital dossiers, one piece of legislation in particular is the focus of interest: the AI Act. The next trilogue negotiations are scheduled for Oct. 3 and 26. The Spanish have already made it clear that they want to conclude the negotiations during their own Council presidency. The discussion on generative AI and foundation models, which the Commission did not include in its proposal, will be exciting. In contrast, work on the AI liability directive is at a standstill. Because of the many references to the AI Regulation, Parliament and the Council do not want to resume work here until the AI Act has been passed.
Also highly exciting: the perennial topic of fair share. The issue here is whether companies such as Amazon, Google, Meta or Netflix, which are responsible for large amounts of data traffic, should share the costs of network expansion. This is what some network operators such as Telekom or Telefónica would like to see. Opinion is divided on this in the Commission, which is why it has initiated an “open-ended” consultation on the future of the networks and their infrastructure that goes beyond the issue of fair share.
The Commission actually wanted to have already presented the submissions to the consultation, but has postponed this until after the summer break. At the informal Telecommunications Council in Léon in October, the member states now want to hold a political debate on the consultation, which will most likely be very controversial. While France has great sympathy for fair share, the German government’s position is not so clear. Other countries, such as the Netherlands, clearly reject it. Following the discussion, the Commission plans to “present, if appropriate, new legislative proposals to improve and secure the telecommunications ecosystem“.
In addition, consultations on the related Gigabit Infrastructure Act (GIA) would continue. The Spanish are planning to present a general orientation for the GIA at the Telecommunications Council in December. At the Ecofin Council, also to be held in December, the Spanish want to present a progress report on the digital Euro. The ECB is working on this in parallel.
Germany is on the losing end of the regulation to prevent and combat the abuse of children (Child Sexual Abuse Material, CSAM). The Spanish want to reach a General Approach at the end of September. Germany rejects key elements of the draft, especially the inclusion of encrypted communications in the scope of the regulation. However, according to the EU embassy, this position is unlikely to find much support in the negotiations. With Manuel Berkel, Lukas Scheid, Corinna Visser
For three weeks, the various bodies of the International Seabed Authority (ISA) met in Jamaica’s capital Kingston to answer a complex question: Should the ISA approve the mining of raw materials in the deep sea in the future? After failing to meet the deadline for a corresponding set of rules, the authority now wants to complete them by 2025 at the earliest. So for the time being, there is no green light for deep-sea mining.
Since the expiry of the so-called two-year period, which the Pacific island state of Nauru triggered with a mining application, further applications can theoretically be received by the Seabed Authority. However, all states agree that no mining of raw materials should take place without appropriate regulation. The ISA member states (167 states plus the EU) now want to take even more time to develop regulations for mining applications. The ISA is to adopt these regulations in 2025 at the earliest; if necessary, the states could once again flexibly adjust the schedule.
Opponents of deep-sea mining saw this as a clear signal. In the run-up, more and more countries had joined the call for a moratorium to apply until the environmental consequences of mining critical raw materials such as manganese, nickel or rare earths in the deep sea are better researched.
The German government’s delegation – consisting of representatives from the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Federal Ministry of the Environment, the Federal Ministry of Finance and the Federal Foreign Office – is lobbying for a “precautionary pause” in an alliance with France, Costa Rica, Brazil, Spain, Finland, New Zealand and several Pacific island countries. In a joint statement, they said a work plan for mining requires sufficient and adequate scientific information, and cannot be approved until the agency adopts complete, environmentally sound rules, regulations and procedures.
During the negotiations, other countries such as Brazil and Canada joined this alliance. “Now it is important that even more states join in and thus give priority to protection and research“, explained a spokesperson for the German Ministry for the Environment. “The German government will contribute to the continuation of negotiations on mining regulations with ambitious proposals and minimum requirements to ensure that any deep-sea mining does not have negative consequences for the unique biodiversity and marine environment of the deep sea.”
However, the call for a moratorium did not even make it onto the agenda at the meeting of member states: states that advocate an early start to deep-sea mining succeeded in rejecting this debate. According to information from Table.Media, the Chinese delegation in particular was a driving force. Great Britain, Norway and Mexico are also pushing for a set of rules to be established as soon as possible and for mining to begin.
Nevertheless, the states were able to agree on individual projects: At the upcoming General Assembly in July 2024, a “General Policy” for the protection and preservation of the marine environment is to be developed that follows the precautionary principle. They are also initiating a systematic review of ISAs, which should have taken place as early as 2022 under the International Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The German delegation had submitted a proposal for this.
In the past, there has been criticism of the functioning of the agency and the neutrality of the ISA General Secretariat. Franziska Brantner, Parliamentary State Secretary at the BMWK, had written a letter to Secretary General Michael Lodge (only available in German) in March expressing “serious concern” about his attempts to exert unilateral influence on delegations. Several diplomats from member states had reported these allegations. “All states parties to the conventions must be able to trust that the Secretariat will respect its duty of neutrality”, Brantner wrote.
During the negotiations of the past three weeks, the General Secretariat has been criticized for restricting the participation of the press and observers from civil society and preventing protests. “The fact that journalists are not allowed into the plenary hall and NGOs are expelled from the plenary hall during critical phases of the negotiations, while state delegations are filled with representatives of mining companies, is deeply disconcerting”, says Martin Webeler of the Environmental Justice Foundation, who was on the ground in Jamaica. The ISA in its current form is unsuitable as a regulator, he adds.
The NGO, a member of the international Deep Sea Conservation Coalition, is therefore calling for comprehensive reform of the Seabed Authority: It also says there is an urgent need to improve transparency and accountability in decision-making – for example, by giving the public access to relevant information and providing opportunities for participation in the deliberations of the Legal and Technical Commission (LTC). The composition of the LTC also needs to be changed to include expertise in marine biology and conservation that has been lacking so far, so that the ISA can fulfill its mandate to protect the marine environment. Potential conflicts of interest of members should be avoided through an independent, regular review process.
In addition to the administration, the Environmental Justice Foundation and other critics say broader reforms need to be made to the ISA’s structures. For example, the criteria for selecting council members are not sufficiently understandable, they say. The ISA Council, which is responsible for approving mining projects and is currently negotiating the rules, consists of 36 members who are “selected according to regional as well as economic aspects”. Germany is also one of the members. As long as these structures are not credible, transparent and independent, “no legitimate decisions on deep-sea mining can be made in the interest of all humanity”.
As much as we appreciate your attention, on warm summer days you might want to read something other than Analyses and News about the EU. That’s why you’ll find book tips from our editorial team here from time to time in the coming weeks. This time, our editor Lukas Scheid tells us what he’s currently reading and which books keep popping into his head when he needs a break.
Michael Lüders: Hubris in the Hindu Kush. How the West Failed in Afghanistan
This summer, I’m launching a geopolitical analysis of the Western military’s failed Afghanistan mission. A bit of history lesson, hardly any cynicism, instead relentless analytical review from the perspective of a longtime correspondent. Whether the West was bound to fail with its naïve plan to build a stable state from Kabul is, of course, something of a speculation. But Lüders underpins his theses with plenty of context, historical knowledge, and startling details, without losing me with too much political nit-picking. And it’s beautifully written, of course. Hard to believe, but it’s almost entertaining to revisit the topic almost two years after the hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Nando Parrado: 72 Days in Hell. How I survived the crash in the Andes
The four siblings who survived a plane crash and then 40 days on their own in the Amazon almost inevitably reminded me of the story of the Uruguayan rugby team that crashed in the Andes in 1972. Rarely has an account of the experience fascinated me as much as the accounts of Nando Parrado, who survived the crash and initiated the rescue himself after more than two months. In Uruguay, he and the 15 other survivors are folk heroes; here, they are hardly known. But we have all heard of their story somewhere – especially because of the cannibalism during the struggle for survival. Very few know the details, motivations and backgrounds. Not exactly a feel-good book either, but impressive nonetheless.
Peter Matthiessen: The Snow Leopard
I’m afraid you can’t get more feel-good these days. Matthiessen wants to come to terms with the death of his wife and sets off with a scientist to the Nepalese Dolpo in the Himalayas. The practicing Buddhist is fascinated by the almost invisible animal, the snow leopard, which he would love to see with his own eyes. The tranquility Matthiessen describes in the mountains also has a meditative effect on the reader. Those who fear loneliness and are just as fascinated by it will find themselves in his thoughts.
