The war in Ukraine and international sanctions against Russia are likely to cause new dislocations in industry value chains. “We will see an impact on energy prices and supply chains, including for raw materials,” Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said yesterday. The German Ministry of Economy is also concerned and is currently asking the industry where bottlenecks could lie. Lukas Scheid and Till Hoppe provide an overview of primary products that are threatened by shortages and rising prices.
The sanctions not only affect the industry, but also the Russian state media Russia Today and Sputnik. They may no longer be broadcast on any platform. The EU wants to prevent Russian propaganda and disinformation. Falk Steiner explains why the measure is well-intentioned but not very effective.
And another effect of the Russian war of aggression can be observed in the EU: The price of CO2 in the European emissions trading system has dropped drastically within a week. Read more about this in the news.
The war in Ukraine and international sanctions against Russia are likely to cause new dislocations in industry value chains. “We will see an impact on energy prices and supply chains, including for raw materials,” Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said yesterday after a video conference of EU finance ministers.
The EU Commission said it was closely monitoring the situation in supply chains. “Overall, however, industrial supply chains appear to rely on Russian inputs only to a relatively limited extent,” a Commission official said. At the moment, there are no known shortages. However, the conflict would again highlight the need for supply chains to become more resilient.
The German Federal Ministry of Economics is also concerned and is currently asking the industry where bottlenecks are threatening. The fighting in Ukraine is affecting suppliers there, and the Western sanctions against Russian banks are affecting trade in raw materials. In addition, the industry fears retaliatory measures by the government in Moscow. The closure of airspace on both sides is also impairing transport, including from China. In addition, a number of logistics companies have decided to stop serving Russia.
The impact on Europe’s and Germany’s industry would also be enormous in the event of further sanctions or supply bottlenecks, warn analysts at the Munich-based consulting firm H&Z. When Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, prices for neon, for example, rose almost fourfold, putting the semiconductor industry in a bind. Since then, chipmakers have diversified their neon supplies and are better positioned today, H&Z commodities expert Michael Santo told Europe.Table. The situation is different for titanium, nickel, palladium, and platinum. Here, the dependencies on Russian supplies are still high.
Titanium, or the raw material titanium sponge imported from Russia, is of particular concern to the aviation industry – one of the largest consumers of this metal. The fuselage of an aircraft, the so-called airframe, as well as certain engine components have a titanium alloy. Russia is the world’s third-largest producer, with Ukraine and Kazakhstan in joint fifth place. Above all, the Russian company VSMPO-Avisma supplies titanium, for example also to the aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus. Depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia and potential Kremlin supporter countries, some or even all of these suppliers could disappear.
Airbus explained that geopolitical risks are integrated into the company’s titanium procurement policy. One is therefore protected in the short and medium term. In the short term, it would still be possible to use up stocks anyway, explained Volker Thum, CEO of the German Aerospace Industries Association. However, companies need to start looking into alternative sources and the use of alternative materials now.
Sanctions and supply restrictions, on the other hand, will have an impact in the medium term at the latest, predicts raw materials expert Santo. The relatively long cycle from raw material titanium sponge to material protects the industry from short-term shortages, but significant price increases for demand in six to twelve months are unavoidable. This has a particular impact on aircraft with a high carbon fiber ratio, such as the A350 or the Boeing 787, where titanium finds disproportionate use due to possible contact corrosion with aluminum, the consultant explains. “So manufacturers and fabricators absolutely need good and secure supply channels outside the Russian sphere of influence to ensure security of supply.” Price increases can probably only be dampened, not prevented.
Import stops of certain raw materials could also have an enormous impact on the steel industry. With 49 percent of the global market, Russia is the world’s largest nickel exporter – among others through the Moscow-based Nornickel Group. Most of the nickel mined worldwide is needed for refining in the steel sector. The German Steel Federation did not want to comment on the possible impacts of various sanction scenarios on Wednesday. But according to Harald Enz, also a commodities expert at consultancy H&Z, steelmaking could be one of the hardest-hit sectors due to its high dependence on Russian imports. The nickel price, which has been rising for months, shot up to a new record level of more than $26,000 per ton with the start of the war in Ukraine and stood at $25.450 per ton yesterday (Wednesday).
Here, too, a further price increase can hardly be avoided, according to Enz. The question is to what extent production capacities will have to be curtailed. This would depend on whether steel producers have alternative procurement sources and whether these are also able to meet demand in the short term.
In addition to steel refining, nickel is also needed for the mobility transition, as the raw material is used in lithium-ion batteries. Nickel is therefore irreplaceable for the ramp-up of electromobility, emphasizes VDA President Hildegard Müller. According to forecasts, the demand for nickel will also multiply. “In the long term, the automotive industry will face shortages and price increases for raw materials,” Müller said.
Also relevant for the automotive industry: palladium and platinum. Both metals are needed for the construction of vehicle catalytic converters for internal combustion engines. Russia is also the world’s largest source of palladium (42 percent global market share) and the second-largest source of platinum (13 percent). According to the VDA, about one-fifth of the palladium imported into Germany comes from Russia.
The industry is also being hampered by the disruptions to supply and logistics chains caused by the war. Numerous German automakers had already announced production stops in recent days due to a lack of parts from suppliers in Ukraine. In addition, according to the VDA president, supply chains to and from China, for example, are coming under pressure because overland routes through the crisis region are also increasingly ruling out transport.
Due to the dynamic situation, it is difficult to give a reliable outlook on the effects on the automotive industry, said Müller. What is certain, however, is that there will be further disruptions in the production of vehicles in Germany. “Manufacturers and suppliers are working at full speed to compensate for the downtime and disruptions in the supply chains and to ramp up alternatives.”
The electrical industry also fears for the availability of important preliminary products. “Russia is the main supplier of sapphire wafers used in optoelectronics,” says Martin Pioch of the German Electrical and Digital Manufacturers’ Association (ZVEI). These wafers are cut from artificially grown sapphire and are needed for the production of LEDs.
Stavropol in southern Russia is home to Monocrystal, one of the largest sapphire wafer producers. If its products were to be affected by new import and export restrictions, this could significantly exacerbate the already tight supply situation on the market. The LED industry can hardly turn to other manufacturers, as their capacities are already fully utilized. Should Russia cease to be a supplier, prices are therefore likely to rise sharply, according to concerns in the industry.
“There could also be supply problems with specific gases or chemical elements, but we don’t see those at the moment,” Pioch says. The US government had warned its chip industry early on about potential shortages of certain materials due to the conflict, including neon and palladium.
For the Arbeitskreis Rohstoffe (Raw Materials Working Group), a network of German environmental organizations, the threat of price increases for raw materials makes it clear that we have neglected to expand the recycling of metallic raw materials in recent years to reduce dependencies. “Regional recycling is needed and at the same time the debate on how we can absolutely reduce our demand for energy as well as raw materials,” demands Hannah Pilgrim, coordinator of the network. Politicians must now set the framework for what a sustainable raw materials policy should look like. This requires the highest human rights and ecological standards for imports, as well as an evaluation of the industrial sectors in which primary raw materials can be significantly reduced. With Till Hoppe
The decision is short, but it’s a tough one: Since its publication in the Official Journal of the EU yesterday at noon, broadcasting, enabling, or otherwise supporting broadcasting on all distribution channels such as cable networks, IP-TV, through Internet service providers, video platforms or apps is prohibited. The English, French, Spanish, British, and German versions of Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik are affected.
The Kremlin’s modern propaganda organs have been controversial in the EU for years. The central accusation is that Kremlin policy is propagated by exploiting media freedom in the West and attempts are made to destabilize societies through disinformation.
With the ban, the EU now wants to stop this: “We are witnessing massive propaganda and disinformation over this outrageous attack on a free and independent country” Ursula von der Leyen justifies the step. “We will not let Kremlin apologists pour their toxic lies justifying Putin’s war or sow the seeds of division in our Union.” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called RT and Sputnik “a significant and direct threat to the Union’s public order and security.”
But this is precisely one of the many problems with the EU sanction. The fact that Russia Today and Sputnik are trying to spread Russian propaganda and are fully in line with the Kremlin is undisputed beyond Russia.
But in not a single EU member state has RT ever managed to get even a remotely relevant share of viewers. In countries with larger Russian-speaking populations, such as the Baltic States, the programs produced in and for Russia are decisive. Accordingly, by the time of going to press, the EU Commission was unable to provide reach figures that could prove the “significant and direct threat” posed by linear television programs, as cited by Foreign Affairs Commissioner Borrell.
RT content does indeed seem more relevant on social media platforms. However, social media content is not clearly covered by the sanctions imposed – the subject of the decision is the broadcasting of content, a concept under broadcasting law. And scholars also have their doubts about social media platforms: It is true, for example, that the number of followers of RT channels on platforms is often high. But the interaction rates with these are rather low. RT seems to be somewhat more successful in some languages on YouTube.
According to responsible media authorities, RT DE is being operated without the necessary license for linear broadcasting anyway. Just the day before yesterday, the responsible media authority Berlin-Brandenburg (Mabb) had threatened the broadcaster with a fine of €25,000. RT DE had not filed an emergency appeal against the panel’s decision to ban it from broadcasting, even a month after the Commission for Licensing and Supervision (ZAK) had banned it from broadcasting, despite announcements to the contrary. RT DE had argued that it was allowed to broadcast in Germany via a Serbian license.
Media regulation in Germany is the responsibility of the federal states and is not fully communicated in Europe. Accordingly, ZAK spokeswoman Anja Bundschuh expressed caution about the sanctions, referring to the media institutions’ independence from the state: “The European Commission’s economic sanctions support us in enforcing our decision on media law.” How exactly the EU sanctions are now to be implemented had not yet been clarified between the federal and state governments in the evening.
Objections could also come from another side. Journalists’ associations criticized the sanction as soon as it was announced by the Commission. “The real antidote to disinformation is not the banning of the media, but the promotion of a vibrant, pluralistic, professional, ethical and viable media ecosystem, totally independent of those in power,” commented Ricardo Gutiérrez, General Secretary of the European Federation of Journalists (EFJ), for example.
The sanctions are also likely to cause some legal debate. On one hand, it is disputed to what extent the EU may directly intervene in the media regulation of the member states at all, insofar as cross-border regulation is not involved. On the other, Article 11 of the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights provides for an astonishingly comprehensive concept of freedom of expression and information that is not directly qualified by obligations: “This right shall include freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers.”
The show is a must-attend event in France. Presidents and candidates like to visit the agricultural fair in Paris. This conveys an image of being rooted in the country. Emmanuel Macron had also planned an extensive visit on Saturday. But the visit became a flying visit – the president is busy with the Ukraine crisis: “The world must brace for a long war.”
For days, Macron has been constantly on the road at meetings of the EU and NATO. He spoke on the phone several times with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj. He also consulted with his predecessors in office, the Socialist François Hollande and the Conservative Nicolas Sarkozy. Macron had promised last year that he would remain “president until the last quarter of an hour.” At the time, he had no idea how true that would be.
Macron also tried in vain to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nevertheless, criticism of Macron at home is limited. The president has succeeded in presenting himself as a personality on the world stage. Jean-Daniel Levy, deputy director of the polling firm Harris Interactive, analyzed in French media: “As soon as we have the impression that a person can make France shine beyond the borders, this person is more appreciated, respected.”
As the incumbent, Macron also embodies stability in uncertain times. The president is building on his position as favorite in the latest polls: An Ifop poll sees him at 28 percent of the vote in the first round, up 2 percentage points in a week. Le Pen is in second place with 16, losing 0.5 percent. Zemmour scores 14 percent (down 1.5 percent) and Pécresse comes in at 13 percent (down 1 percent).
Most of the candidates are calling for a tough stance on Russia. But they look pale in comparison to Macron, even if the conservative Valérie Pécresse repeatedly proclaims that a “steely course toward Putin” must be taken. But she also stressed that assurances should be given to Moscow that Ukraine’s admission to NATO was not on the agenda. She chided Macron for exploiting the situation for the election campaign.
On the far right, this topic is not exactly suitable for attracting voters. Eric Zemmour took the opportunity to reemphasize his idea of France’s “sovereignty”. He referred to Macron as NATO’s “little messenger”.
Zemmour has come under criticism for playing down a threat from Russia for months and now having to row back. He had previously spoken of “propaganda by the American intelligence services” and did not hold back with his admiration for Putin. The TV host had once stressed in 2018 that he dreams of “a French Putin.” He also stressed that the US was pressuring Putin with the expansion of NATO. He wants to negotiate peace and a withdrawal of Russian troops with the concession that NATO will not expand further east.
It is also a difficult situation for Marine Le Pen. Her close ties to Russia are well known – she has already had election campaigns financed by Russian banks because she has trouble getting money in Europe. The far-right leader said it was not enough to rely “on diplomacy at the last moment.” She accused Macron of exploiting the crisis for the election campaign to “strengthen his communication.” She wryly pointed out, “People have even questioned whether he’s really president or aiming for the Nobel Peace Prize.” She also had to admit that she had misjudged the Kremlin.
The leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon condemns the invasion of the Russians, seeing them as the responsible party. However, he also says that the Americans “annex Ukraine into NATO”. Mélenchon called Macron’s record on the Ukraine crisis “unfortunate.” Socialists and Greens were reticent to comment on Macron, condemning above all Russia’s decision to attack.
Pécresse declared the candidates who defended Russia “have discredited themselves to govern France.” In doing so, she hopes to win votes from Le Pen and Zemmour. But she faces criticism herself: Her party colleague Eric Ciotti, who is campaigning with her, has spoken out in recent months in favor of leaving NATO and moving closer to Russia. Meanwhile, Mélenchon’s team is digging for old tweets in which he criticizes Putin.
The war in Ukraine and international sanctions against Russia are likely to cause new dislocations in industry value chains. “We will see an impact on energy prices and supply chains, including for raw materials,” Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said yesterday. The German Ministry of Economy is also concerned and is currently asking the industry where bottlenecks could lie. Lukas Scheid and Till Hoppe provide an overview of primary products that are threatened by shortages and rising prices.
The sanctions not only affect the industry, but also the Russian state media Russia Today and Sputnik. They may no longer be broadcast on any platform. The EU wants to prevent Russian propaganda and disinformation. Falk Steiner explains why the measure is well-intentioned but not very effective.
And another effect of the Russian war of aggression can be observed in the EU: The price of CO2 in the European emissions trading system has dropped drastically within a week. Read more about this in the news.
The war in Ukraine and international sanctions against Russia are likely to cause new dislocations in industry value chains. “We will see an impact on energy prices and supply chains, including for raw materials,” Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said yesterday after a video conference of EU finance ministers.
The EU Commission said it was closely monitoring the situation in supply chains. “Overall, however, industrial supply chains appear to rely on Russian inputs only to a relatively limited extent,” a Commission official said. At the moment, there are no known shortages. However, the conflict would again highlight the need for supply chains to become more resilient.
The German Federal Ministry of Economics is also concerned and is currently asking the industry where bottlenecks are threatening. The fighting in Ukraine is affecting suppliers there, and the Western sanctions against Russian banks are affecting trade in raw materials. In addition, the industry fears retaliatory measures by the government in Moscow. The closure of airspace on both sides is also impairing transport, including from China. In addition, a number of logistics companies have decided to stop serving Russia.
The impact on Europe’s and Germany’s industry would also be enormous in the event of further sanctions or supply bottlenecks, warn analysts at the Munich-based consulting firm H&Z. When Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, prices for neon, for example, rose almost fourfold, putting the semiconductor industry in a bind. Since then, chipmakers have diversified their neon supplies and are better positioned today, H&Z commodities expert Michael Santo told Europe.Table. The situation is different for titanium, nickel, palladium, and platinum. Here, the dependencies on Russian supplies are still high.
Titanium, or the raw material titanium sponge imported from Russia, is of particular concern to the aviation industry – one of the largest consumers of this metal. The fuselage of an aircraft, the so-called airframe, as well as certain engine components have a titanium alloy. Russia is the world’s third-largest producer, with Ukraine and Kazakhstan in joint fifth place. Above all, the Russian company VSMPO-Avisma supplies titanium, for example also to the aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus. Depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia and potential Kremlin supporter countries, some or even all of these suppliers could disappear.
Airbus explained that geopolitical risks are integrated into the company’s titanium procurement policy. One is therefore protected in the short and medium term. In the short term, it would still be possible to use up stocks anyway, explained Volker Thum, CEO of the German Aerospace Industries Association. However, companies need to start looking into alternative sources and the use of alternative materials now.
Sanctions and supply restrictions, on the other hand, will have an impact in the medium term at the latest, predicts raw materials expert Santo. The relatively long cycle from raw material titanium sponge to material protects the industry from short-term shortages, but significant price increases for demand in six to twelve months are unavoidable. This has a particular impact on aircraft with a high carbon fiber ratio, such as the A350 or the Boeing 787, where titanium finds disproportionate use due to possible contact corrosion with aluminum, the consultant explains. “So manufacturers and fabricators absolutely need good and secure supply channels outside the Russian sphere of influence to ensure security of supply.” Price increases can probably only be dampened, not prevented.
Import stops of certain raw materials could also have an enormous impact on the steel industry. With 49 percent of the global market, Russia is the world’s largest nickel exporter – among others through the Moscow-based Nornickel Group. Most of the nickel mined worldwide is needed for refining in the steel sector. The German Steel Federation did not want to comment on the possible impacts of various sanction scenarios on Wednesday. But according to Harald Enz, also a commodities expert at consultancy H&Z, steelmaking could be one of the hardest-hit sectors due to its high dependence on Russian imports. The nickel price, which has been rising for months, shot up to a new record level of more than $26,000 per ton with the start of the war in Ukraine and stood at $25.450 per ton yesterday (Wednesday).
Here, too, a further price increase can hardly be avoided, according to Enz. The question is to what extent production capacities will have to be curtailed. This would depend on whether steel producers have alternative procurement sources and whether these are also able to meet demand in the short term.
In addition to steel refining, nickel is also needed for the mobility transition, as the raw material is used in lithium-ion batteries. Nickel is therefore irreplaceable for the ramp-up of electromobility, emphasizes VDA President Hildegard Müller. According to forecasts, the demand for nickel will also multiply. “In the long term, the automotive industry will face shortages and price increases for raw materials,” Müller said.
Also relevant for the automotive industry: palladium and platinum. Both metals are needed for the construction of vehicle catalytic converters for internal combustion engines. Russia is also the world’s largest source of palladium (42 percent global market share) and the second-largest source of platinum (13 percent). According to the VDA, about one-fifth of the palladium imported into Germany comes from Russia.
The industry is also being hampered by the disruptions to supply and logistics chains caused by the war. Numerous German automakers had already announced production stops in recent days due to a lack of parts from suppliers in Ukraine. In addition, according to the VDA president, supply chains to and from China, for example, are coming under pressure because overland routes through the crisis region are also increasingly ruling out transport.
Due to the dynamic situation, it is difficult to give a reliable outlook on the effects on the automotive industry, said Müller. What is certain, however, is that there will be further disruptions in the production of vehicles in Germany. “Manufacturers and suppliers are working at full speed to compensate for the downtime and disruptions in the supply chains and to ramp up alternatives.”
The electrical industry also fears for the availability of important preliminary products. “Russia is the main supplier of sapphire wafers used in optoelectronics,” says Martin Pioch of the German Electrical and Digital Manufacturers’ Association (ZVEI). These wafers are cut from artificially grown sapphire and are needed for the production of LEDs.
Stavropol in southern Russia is home to Monocrystal, one of the largest sapphire wafer producers. If its products were to be affected by new import and export restrictions, this could significantly exacerbate the already tight supply situation on the market. The LED industry can hardly turn to other manufacturers, as their capacities are already fully utilized. Should Russia cease to be a supplier, prices are therefore likely to rise sharply, according to concerns in the industry.
“There could also be supply problems with specific gases or chemical elements, but we don’t see those at the moment,” Pioch says. The US government had warned its chip industry early on about potential shortages of certain materials due to the conflict, including neon and palladium.
For the Arbeitskreis Rohstoffe (Raw Materials Working Group), a network of German environmental organizations, the threat of price increases for raw materials makes it clear that we have neglected to expand the recycling of metallic raw materials in recent years to reduce dependencies. “Regional recycling is needed and at the same time the debate on how we can absolutely reduce our demand for energy as well as raw materials,” demands Hannah Pilgrim, coordinator of the network. Politicians must now set the framework for what a sustainable raw materials policy should look like. This requires the highest human rights and ecological standards for imports, as well as an evaluation of the industrial sectors in which primary raw materials can be significantly reduced. With Till Hoppe
The decision is short, but it’s a tough one: Since its publication in the Official Journal of the EU yesterday at noon, broadcasting, enabling, or otherwise supporting broadcasting on all distribution channels such as cable networks, IP-TV, through Internet service providers, video platforms or apps is prohibited. The English, French, Spanish, British, and German versions of Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik are affected.
The Kremlin’s modern propaganda organs have been controversial in the EU for years. The central accusation is that Kremlin policy is propagated by exploiting media freedom in the West and attempts are made to destabilize societies through disinformation.
With the ban, the EU now wants to stop this: “We are witnessing massive propaganda and disinformation over this outrageous attack on a free and independent country” Ursula von der Leyen justifies the step. “We will not let Kremlin apologists pour their toxic lies justifying Putin’s war or sow the seeds of division in our Union.” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called RT and Sputnik “a significant and direct threat to the Union’s public order and security.”
But this is precisely one of the many problems with the EU sanction. The fact that Russia Today and Sputnik are trying to spread Russian propaganda and are fully in line with the Kremlin is undisputed beyond Russia.
But in not a single EU member state has RT ever managed to get even a remotely relevant share of viewers. In countries with larger Russian-speaking populations, such as the Baltic States, the programs produced in and for Russia are decisive. Accordingly, by the time of going to press, the EU Commission was unable to provide reach figures that could prove the “significant and direct threat” posed by linear television programs, as cited by Foreign Affairs Commissioner Borrell.
RT content does indeed seem more relevant on social media platforms. However, social media content is not clearly covered by the sanctions imposed – the subject of the decision is the broadcasting of content, a concept under broadcasting law. And scholars also have their doubts about social media platforms: It is true, for example, that the number of followers of RT channels on platforms is often high. But the interaction rates with these are rather low. RT seems to be somewhat more successful in some languages on YouTube.
According to responsible media authorities, RT DE is being operated without the necessary license for linear broadcasting anyway. Just the day before yesterday, the responsible media authority Berlin-Brandenburg (Mabb) had threatened the broadcaster with a fine of €25,000. RT DE had not filed an emergency appeal against the panel’s decision to ban it from broadcasting, even a month after the Commission for Licensing and Supervision (ZAK) had banned it from broadcasting, despite announcements to the contrary. RT DE had argued that it was allowed to broadcast in Germany via a Serbian license.
Media regulation in Germany is the responsibility of the federal states and is not fully communicated in Europe. Accordingly, ZAK spokeswoman Anja Bundschuh expressed caution about the sanctions, referring to the media institutions’ independence from the state: “The European Commission’s economic sanctions support us in enforcing our decision on media law.” How exactly the EU sanctions are now to be implemented had not yet been clarified between the federal and state governments in the evening.
Objections could also come from another side. Journalists’ associations criticized the sanction as soon as it was announced by the Commission. “The real antidote to disinformation is not the banning of the media, but the promotion of a vibrant, pluralistic, professional, ethical and viable media ecosystem, totally independent of those in power,” commented Ricardo Gutiérrez, General Secretary of the European Federation of Journalists (EFJ), for example.
The sanctions are also likely to cause some legal debate. On one hand, it is disputed to what extent the EU may directly intervene in the media regulation of the member states at all, insofar as cross-border regulation is not involved. On the other, Article 11 of the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights provides for an astonishingly comprehensive concept of freedom of expression and information that is not directly qualified by obligations: “This right shall include freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers.”
The show is a must-attend event in France. Presidents and candidates like to visit the agricultural fair in Paris. This conveys an image of being rooted in the country. Emmanuel Macron had also planned an extensive visit on Saturday. But the visit became a flying visit – the president is busy with the Ukraine crisis: “The world must brace for a long war.”
For days, Macron has been constantly on the road at meetings of the EU and NATO. He spoke on the phone several times with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj. He also consulted with his predecessors in office, the Socialist François Hollande and the Conservative Nicolas Sarkozy. Macron had promised last year that he would remain “president until the last quarter of an hour.” At the time, he had no idea how true that would be.
Macron also tried in vain to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nevertheless, criticism of Macron at home is limited. The president has succeeded in presenting himself as a personality on the world stage. Jean-Daniel Levy, deputy director of the polling firm Harris Interactive, analyzed in French media: “As soon as we have the impression that a person can make France shine beyond the borders, this person is more appreciated, respected.”
As the incumbent, Macron also embodies stability in uncertain times. The president is building on his position as favorite in the latest polls: An Ifop poll sees him at 28 percent of the vote in the first round, up 2 percentage points in a week. Le Pen is in second place with 16, losing 0.5 percent. Zemmour scores 14 percent (down 1.5 percent) and Pécresse comes in at 13 percent (down 1 percent).
Most of the candidates are calling for a tough stance on Russia. But they look pale in comparison to Macron, even if the conservative Valérie Pécresse repeatedly proclaims that a “steely course toward Putin” must be taken. But she also stressed that assurances should be given to Moscow that Ukraine’s admission to NATO was not on the agenda. She chided Macron for exploiting the situation for the election campaign.
On the far right, this topic is not exactly suitable for attracting voters. Eric Zemmour took the opportunity to reemphasize his idea of France’s “sovereignty”. He referred to Macron as NATO’s “little messenger”.
Zemmour has come under criticism for playing down a threat from Russia for months and now having to row back. He had previously spoken of “propaganda by the American intelligence services” and did not hold back with his admiration for Putin. The TV host had once stressed in 2018 that he dreams of “a French Putin.” He also stressed that the US was pressuring Putin with the expansion of NATO. He wants to negotiate peace and a withdrawal of Russian troops with the concession that NATO will not expand further east.
It is also a difficult situation for Marine Le Pen. Her close ties to Russia are well known – she has already had election campaigns financed by Russian banks because she has trouble getting money in Europe. The far-right leader said it was not enough to rely “on diplomacy at the last moment.” She accused Macron of exploiting the crisis for the election campaign to “strengthen his communication.” She wryly pointed out, “People have even questioned whether he’s really president or aiming for the Nobel Peace Prize.” She also had to admit that she had misjudged the Kremlin.
The leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon condemns the invasion of the Russians, seeing them as the responsible party. However, he also says that the Americans “annex Ukraine into NATO”. Mélenchon called Macron’s record on the Ukraine crisis “unfortunate.” Socialists and Greens were reticent to comment on Macron, condemning above all Russia’s decision to attack.
Pécresse declared the candidates who defended Russia “have discredited themselves to govern France.” In doing so, she hopes to win votes from Le Pen and Zemmour. But she faces criticism herself: Her party colleague Eric Ciotti, who is campaigning with her, has spoken out in recent months in favor of leaving NATO and moving closer to Russia. Meanwhile, Mélenchon’s team is digging for old tweets in which he criticizes Putin.
