Dear reader,
Once the ballot papers for the European elections have been counted next Monday, the poker for posts and influence in Brussels will really begin. Despite Charles Michel’s animosities and all the speculation surrounding Mario Draghi, Ursula von der Leyen still has the clearest prospect of becoming the new Commission President. Her EPP is expected to be the strongest force in the new European Parliament, and she has powerful advocates among the heads of state and government – including Olaf Scholz.
Nevertheless, von der Leyen cannot feel safe. If the CDU politician fails in the Council or does not receive a majority in the European Parliament, the Greens in Berlin will have their turn. In the coalition agreement with the traffic light coalition, the Greens have secured the right to propose the new German Commissioner “if the Commission President does not come from Germany”.
Franziska Brantner, Parliamentary State Secretary to Minister Robert Habeck, is highly regarded. She was a member of the European Parliament from 2009 to 2013, is considered to have excellent connections in Brussels and is also a tough negotiator. However, this would be a loss for Habeck, as my colleague Helene Bubrowski writes in our Berlin.Table: Brantner is expected to play a prominent role in the Green parliamentary election campaign, which Habeck is likely to lead as candidate for chancellor. However, those close to her deny that she has ambitions for the Brussels post.
The name Sven Giegold, civil servant state secretary to Habeck, also comes up. He sat in the European Parliament until 2021. However, he is considered a lone fighter who has found his role as head of office. According to Helene, Tarek Al-Wazir, the long-standing Hessian Minister of Economics, is also being discussed. However, the appointment would give the Greens the narrative that an election loser is being sent to Brussels – a reputation they do not want to have. A rumor spread by the controversial BILD newspaper, on the other hand, is likely to turn out to be a pipe dream: Annalena Baerbock is not to go to Brussels. At least not now.
In this issue, we also give you an initial overview of who the other member states could appoint to the new Commission. Some of this is still very speculative – but sometimes that’s what makes it so interesting to read.
Have a great day!
Feature
These are the possible Commissioners after the European elections
The timetable is tight: If Ursula von der Leyen succeeds in rallying the heads of state and government behind her and organizing a majority in the European Parliament, the MEPs could re-elect her as Commission President as early as the first week of their session in mid-July.
The CDU politician could then use the summer break to hold talks with the national candidates for the Commission and tailor their areas of responsibility in consultation with the capitals. In September, the nominees would then face hearings in the committees of the European Parliament. If MEPs approve the Commission as a whole, it could start work in November.
However, things could also turn out very differently – the European elections and the subsequent power game bring with them numerous uncertainties, and not just for von der Leyen. In Belgium and Bulgaria, the national parliaments are also being re-elected. It is therefore still completely unclear who the election winners will propose for the Commission.
We will give you an overview of the status of the discussions. Part two will follow tomorrow.
Denmark
Dan Jørgensen, the Social Democrat who is currently Minister for Development Cooperation and Global Climate Policy, is being touted as a possible commissioner. However, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is also rumored to have ambitions to move from Copenhagen to Brussels. Her coalition is just as unpopular at home as the Berlin traffic light. Given her experience in government, the Social Democrat could be considered as Council President, but her prospects would reportedly not be particularly good. Frederiksen could therefore theoretically put herself forward for the Commission – but the job would probably only be attractive to her if she became first deputy president of the Commission. However, others are also seeking the post – such as the Spanish candidate Teresa Ribeira.
Germany
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has an interest in Ursula von der Leyen remaining Commission President, despite the differences in their party records. Should the CDU politician fail, Berlin would hardly have access to the most important post in Brussels again. Then it would be the turn of the Greens, who have had the right to propose the new German Commissioner enshrined in the coalition agreement between the two parties “if the Commission President does not come from Germany”.
Franziska Brantner, Parliamentary State Secretary to Economics Minister Robert Habeck, has been mentioned as a possible candidate. Sven Giegold, civil servant State Secretary at the BMWK, and Tarek Al-Wazir, the long-standing Hessian Economics Minister, are also conceivable.
Estonia
The name of Prime Minister Kaja Kallas comes up again and again when it comes to the question of who Estonia will nominate for the future Commission. Even Kadri Simson, the current Commissioner for Energy, has spoken out: She believes, she told the Estonian broadcaster ERR, that Kallas will apply for a job in Brussels after the elections.
The liberal politician has distinguished herself as a tireless admonisher for resolute support for Ukraine and a tough stance against Russia. “What provokes an aggressor like Russia is weakness”, is a typical Kallas statement. In particular, she is being touted as a possible successor to EU foreign affairs commissioner Josep Borrell – or as defense commissioner.
Finland
As the largest governing party, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s National Rally Party (EPP) will propose the new Commissioner. The most likely candidate is the experienced MEP Henna Virkkunen. Orpo has signaled that he would like to nominate someone who stood as a candidate in the European elections.
France
Emmanuel Macron alone decides on the nomination. And the President of the Republic is known for leaving personnel matters open for as long as possible. One thing is clear: Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is hoping for a second term in office. However, the enterprising Commissioner angered Macron with one of his tweets attacking his boss Ursula von der Leyen at the EPP congress in March. Finance and Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire or former Transport Minister Clément Beaune are being touted as alternatives in Paris. But Macron is always good for a surprise.
Greece
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis decides who to send. The current Commission Vice-President Margarítis Schinás probably has the best chance of being nominated again.
Ireland
Commissioner Mairead McGuinness would like to continue and her profile would suit the agriculture portfolio. She is a member of Prime Minister Simon Harris ‘ Fine Gael party, which is part of the EPP. However, it has been agreed in the coalition that the second largest coalition partner, Fianna Fáil, will appoint the next Commissioner. This could be Charlie McConalogue. However, elections will be held in Ireland in the next seven months, which could still change things.
Italy
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has so far refused to reveal her cards. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, for example, is being touted as a possible candidate: The 70-year-old from Forza Italia was already a member of the Commission from 2008 to 2014, initially responsible for transport and later for enterprise and industry. Tajani is well connected and respected in Brussels. In recent weeks, he has publicly and vehemently advocated the appointment of an EU Commissioner for Defense – it is quite possible that he sees himself in this role.
Another name is Raffaele Fitto: The Minister for European Affairs was a Member of the European Parliament from 2014 to 2022, initially for Forza Italia and most recently for Melonis Fratelli. Until he joined the government in Rome in the fall of 2022, he was co-chair of the ECR parliamentary group. In Meloni’s cabinet, Fitto is responsible for the approximately 200 billion euros from the EU recovery fund and only recently assured that Italy is pursuing the goals agreed with Brussels “with extreme rigor”.
Francesco Lollobrigida, currently Minister of Agriculture, would be less easy to place. The 52-year-old is a member of the Fratelli, Meloni’s brother-in-law, and belongs to the relatively small circle of people Meloni trusts. However, his nomination would be a major risk for the Prime Minister: Lollobrigida has repeatedly made inappropriate statements, including talking about the “danger of ethnic exchange”.
Croatia
Following the parliamentary elections in April, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković’s HDZ (EPP) entered into a coalition with the ultra-right party DP. Plenković is likely to put forward the current Commission Vice-President Dubravka Šuica again.
Latvia
The future Latvian Commissioner may once again be Valdis Dombrovskis. The Executive Vice-President of the European Commission, responsible for an economy that serves the people and, since 2020, also for trade, is entering the European elections as the lead candidate of the ruling party Jaunā Vienotība (New Unity). On its website, the party advertises with the slogan “European experience for a secure Latvia”, next to which Dombrovskis can be seen. The 52-year-old has been a member of the Commission since 2014 and is currently the highest-ranking representative of the EPP after President Ursula von der Leyen.
Dombrovskis expressed his wish to remain Commissioner a while ago. His core issues in the European election campaign are support for Ukraine, competitiveness and security. With Krišjānis Kariņš, Dombrovskis has – or had – a prominent internal competitor for the position of Commissioner. However, Kariņš has come under massive pressure in recent months due to a flight scandal. He resigned from the post of Foreign Minister at the end of March.
Lithuania
The most obvious candidate is probably Gabrielius Landsbergis. Like Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister and TS-LKD chairman has made a name for himself with his clear stance on the Russian war in Ukraine. He recently backed French President Macron, for example, when he said that he would not rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine. However, some consider Landsbergis’ rhetoric to be too shrill at times, which could cloud his prospects for the post of EU foreign policy chief.
Luxembourg
Prime Minister Luc Frieden’s conservative-liberal coalition government has actually agreed to nominate former MEP Christophe Hansen. However, the European Social Democrats have chosen Nicolas Schmit from Luxembourg as their lead candidate – and are now urging Frieden to reappoint the former Labor Commissioner after the election. Their argument: as the lead candidate of what is probably the second largest party family, Schmit could demand a position as Vice-President with an important portfolio for Luxembourg. With Hansen, on the other hand, the small Grand Duchy would have to make do with a less relevant subject area. by Till Hoppe, Sarah Schaefer, Almut Siefert, Claire Stam
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Hydrogen: What industry and the BMWK are concerned about
A new Commission document is causing unrest in European industry and among EU member states even before it is published. The Commission wants to publish guidelines by the fall at the latest in order to clear up legal ambiguities regarding the industrial target for green hydrogen. Brussels circles are warning of two serious consequences for Europe’s manufacturing industry.
The Commission is considering using the guidelines to extend the quota for green hydrogen, which will apply from 2030, to derivatives such as ammonia and methanol. This was confirmed by two sources to Table.Briefings who did not wish to be named. This could increase the obligation for industry to use green hydrogen by at least 40 percent. In addition, the import of industrial goods based on hydrogen would become even more attractive – at the expense of European production.
BMWK wants ‘design conducive to the achievement of objectives’
The Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs is taking the matter so seriously that it is currently seeking external legal advice. One of the goals is a “legally secure, practicable application and interpretation of the regulations that is conducive to achieving the objectives”, according to the public invitation to tender issued by the industry department. The EU Commission has already invited experts from member states and associations to a workshop on May 24 to discuss the problem.
The background to the dispute is a single word from the Renewable Energy Directive. Parliament and member states agreed last year that the industry must cover 42% of its hydrogen from renewable fuels of non-biogenic origin (RFNBO) from 2030. The term RFNBO includes derivatives such as ammonia and methanol.
However, according to the directive, the calculation of the quota refers to RFNBO in the numerator and to “hydrogen” in the denominator. If interpreted literally, the EU states would therefore not have to replace their consumption of hydrogen derivatives with RFNBO.
In April, the Directorate-General for Energy discussed the consequences for the first time, according to reports in Brussels. The Commission itself is currently still quantifying the consequences of the demand for green hydrogen, a Commission official told Table Briefings. Some of the quantities in question are business secrets. However, the aim is to achieve a uniform interpretation by the member states.
Others say that the Commission considers the term “hydrogen” to be open to interpretation, which in its own view gives it leeway to include derivatives in the calculation through the guidelines.
Import of end products would circumvent quota
The industry fears negative consequences for European production in this case. “The inclusion of ammonia and methanol can create incentives for the import of end products that do not have to be in line with an expensive RFNBO target”, says an industry representative. Without the extension of the scope, it would be more attractive to import derivatives and process them into end products in Europe.
According to MEP Markus Pieper (CDU), the Commission is threatening to overstep its authority by reinterpreting the concept of hydrogen through legally non-binding guidelines. “It is unacceptable that the Commission is trying to reshape a hard-negotiated law through the back door”, says the rapporteur for the Renewable Energy Directive. “The Commission would massively fuel the risk of deindustrialization in Europe. We insist that the RFNBO quota for industry be implemented as negotiated.”
Further exemptions await national implementation
The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs also finds further exceptions to the directive in need of interpretation. For example, when calculating the consumption to be replaced, hydrogen that is required for the desulphurization of fossil fuels or that is produced as a by-product in the manufacture of certain basic chemicals may be excluded.
However, the process chains in refineries and chemical parks are complex. The BWMK consultants should therefore also address this aspect: “Which industrial applications can (still) be legally and justifiably subsumed under the exemptions, and which cannot?”
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TikTok: How the parties want to reach young people and outperform the AfD
AI-generated cover images, pointed headlines with a red background and almost 50,000 followers – this is the TikTok account of Maximilian Krah, the AfD’s lead candidate. Since the start of the European election campaign, the debate about the social network and the AfD’s success has revolved around TikTok. Meanwhile, the other parties are trying to keep up with Krah and the AfD and make themselves appealing to a misunderstood target group on the politically mostly newly developed network.
The European People’s Party (EPP) is focusing everything on one account – their parliamentary group account. However, its topics – rearmament, increased protection of the EU’s external borders and limiting migration – are sometimes barely mentioned.
The European Social Democrats (PES) take a different approach. There is no parliamentary group account; in the German election campaign, the focus is on that of SPD lead candidate Katarina Barley: excerpts from debates and clips aimed at young people in terms of tone and choice of words, without simplifying the message. However, the top issues of the election program – peace, pensions and the minimum wage – are often only touched on indirectly.
Martin Fuchs, political consultant, lecturer and author, criticizes in an interview with Table.Briefings: “The SPD provides too little European content, but rather works off the AfD.” It would be better at this point to set your own positive accents.
Strack-Zimmermann: dialogue and provocation
Europe’s Liberals (ALDE) are staging themselves and lead candidate Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann as a “Eurofighter”. With short videos, lots of interaction and provocative teasers, she adapts to the requirements of the platform. ALDE’s goals: less bureaucracy, a European army and support for the internationally agreed Paris climate target. Strack-Zimmermann’s aim: to provoke the competition.
According to Emmeline Charenton, Federal Secretary of the Young European Federalists in Germany, this is not the best strategy: “Shooting against the conservative democratic parties, for example the CDU, in an election campaign makes little sense. If you defame them, young people might move further to the right instead.”
The European Greens (EGP), whose goals include more climate protection and preventing the shift to the right, are using English-language excerpts from Reintke’s speeches and film footage from the election campaign with lead candidate Terry Reintke. Reintke’s TikTok appearance is characterized by quality content, recycled and not always perfectly adapted to TikTok, but without being superficial.
‘On Tiktok, ‘quick and dirty’ also works sometimes.’
The German top candidates of the European Left, Carola Rackete and Martin Schirdewan, score points with content and insights into their everyday political lives. Their goals: Fighting poverty, taxing large corporations and loosening EU debt rules. The quality of the images and sound could usually be improved. Fuchs therefore says: “In terms of professionalism, there are big differences between the parties.” But: TikTok has a different standard than other networks. “You have to recognize and understand people, but ‘quick and dirty’ also works on TikTok.”
As different as the strategies are, the candidates have one thing in common: They cannot match the reach of Krah, who is currently banned from appearing. The AfD lead candidate generates a lot of clicks with his pointed, polarizing content. With an omnipresent populist touch, he catches people where there are insecurities. This is also confirmed by Charenton from the Young European Federalists: “The AfD is hitting precisely those notches that have to do with the insecurity and frustration of young people.”
Parties lack content and network
Overall, political consultant Fuchs sees potential for improvement in the TikTok election campaign: “What is missing in order to really get young people to understand issues is above all content – the left and the Greens are most likely to succeed in this.” In addition, most parties lack a network that can disseminate their content. The AfD understood early on that it needed to rely on third-party accounts to reach people who had previously had nothing to do with it. Be it LGBTQ activists, craftsmen or martial artists – “these are often more appealing to young people than an old white man from the party cosmos.”
What does a campaign that wants to reach young people have to achieve? It has to show that it takes young people and their needs seriously, says Fuchs. “It needs an authentic and emotional approach and a focus on the problems of our time, such as war and peace, migration, the lack of housing or lost promises of advancement.” And it’s about presenting positive ideas and visions.
Politics needs to focus on young people
Ultimately, the question remains as to what real impact the TikTok election campaign will have. Fuchs believes that the videos will have an effect. However, the direct influence is manageable and massively overrated. “I am in favor of Democrats going there – it is the right channel to address young people, to educate, to address discourse and to provide positive input.” But he believes the expectation that this will win back elections and take votes away from the right is unjustified.
- AfD
- EU-Schuldenregeln
- European election 2024
- Tiktok
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News
European elections: How younger people vote
Young people are more pro-European, but vote less often. This is the result of a representative survey by “eupinions“, the European opinion research institute of the Bertelsmann Stiftung. The study will be published today, Wednesday. In the March survey, an EU average of 59% of voters between the ages of 16 and 25 said they would vote. 24 percent said “maybe” and 17 percent said “no”.
In the 26 to 69 age group, 65% of voters said “maybe”. 22 percent said “maybe”, 13 percent said “no”. In Germany, young voters are even more tired of voting: 57% in the young age group said they were going to vote, 27% said “maybe” and 16% said “no”. In the older age group, the figures were 62% (“yes”), 24% (“maybe”), 14% (“no”).
Referendum on remaining in the EU
The 16 to 25-year-olds are more pro-European than older voters. On average in the EU and in Germany, 78% of younger people would vote for their country to remain in the EU in a referendum. In the group of 26 to 69-year-olds, this figure was 65% on average in the EU and 66% in Germany.
When it comes to the reasons for voting, it is noticeable that younger people vote less often out of protest. When asked about their main motives (two answers possible), 23% of 16 to 25-year-olds said “to express disapproval of current politics” compared to 30% of 26 to 69-year-olds. As many as 41 percent of younger respondents stated “influencing who leads the next commission” compared to 38 percent of older respondents. 43% of younger respondents and 48% of older respondents want to “shape the direction of the EU“. “ Support the political party I feel closest to” is the most widespread. 50 percent of younger people and 52 percent of older people ticked this box.
Climate change is more important to younger people
Younger people have other issues that are important to them. When asked about three tasks that the EU should focus on in the next mandate, 50% of younger people said: “Protecting citizens’ rights“. Among older respondents, this figure was 32%. 42% of younger respondents mentioned “combating climate change“, compared to 31% of older respondents. 35% of younger respondents emphasized “fighting terrorism“, compared to 30% of older respondents. 33% of younger people voted for “safeguarding public health“, compared to 23% of older people. mgr
Green finance: Why the EU supervisory authorities warn against ‘greenwashing’
Europe’s supervisory authorities are joining forces to combat the increasing whitewashing of supposedly “green” financial products. Banks, insurers and other financial market players have a responsibility to provide sustainability information that is “fair, clear and not misleading”, emphasized the banking regulator EBA, the insurance regulator EIOPA and the securities regulator ESMA on Tuesday on the occasion of the publication of their latest analyses on so-called greenwashing in the financial sector.
The EU Commission wants to channel more money into “green” investments in order to accelerate the climate-friendly restructuring of the economy. Bank advisors and insurance brokers must therefore now ask clients about their ideas on sustainability when providing investment advice.
But what is actually sustainable, and where do providers only pretend to be environmentally and climate-friendly? As demand for sustainable investments increases, so does the risk of providers presenting products as “greener” than they actually are. The insurance regulator EIOPA warns: “If greenwashing is not tackled, it could undermine genuine efforts to finance the sustainable transition and weaken consumer confidence in the European insurance and pensions sector.”
More and more cases of ‘greenwashing’
According to EIOPA, the number of cases in the insurance sector has recently increased: In the current year, the national supervisory authorities of five member states had reported “greenwashing” cases, compared to three in 2023. According to the information, six other national supervisory authorities are currently investigating potential cases.
The EU Banking Supervisory Authority EBA has also observed a growing greenwashing risk among banks, investment firms and payment service providers. The result of the EBA’s quantitative analysis of greenwashing shows a significant increase in this trend in all sectors, including EU banks. The total number of suspected cases in the European Union increased further in 2023: by 26.1 percent compared to 2022, the EBA reported.
The supervisory authorities’ analyses of “greenwashing” are part of a broader initiative. In March 2023, the EU Commission presented a legislative proposal that would oblige companies to meet minimum standards when making claims about the climate-friendliness or sustainability of their products. The Commission’s aim: Anyone buying a product advertised as environmentally friendly should be able to be sure that the product really is “green”.
In its press release, ESMA also called on national supervisory authorities to deploy more human resources and supervisory tools to combat “greenwashing”. dpa
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EU Commission makes Leag compensation partly conditional
The East German lignite company Leag will initially only receive €1.2 billion in compensation for the agreed coal phase-out instead of the €1.75 billion promised by the German government. This sum is intended to cover the additional costs that will be incurred in any case as a result of the legally agreed phase-out of coal-fired power generation. €600 million of this is to cover the additional costs of renaturalizing the opencast mines, while a further €600 million is to be used to provide social security for existing employees. This was announced by Minister Robert Habeck and Leag CEO Thorsten Kramer on Tuesday.
The remaining €550 million were made conditional by the EU Commission, which must approve the compensation agreed as part of the coal phase-out in 2019 as state aid. This is intended to compensate Leag for the profits that the company lost as a result of the earlier coal phase-out. However, it is completely unclear whether there are any lost profits at all; many experts assume that the coal-fired power plants would be taken off the grid solely due to market developments even without a political decision.
Costs of renaturation are unclear
For this reason, the EU Commission has now stipulated that the amount of profit each power plant could have made by continuing to operate should be calculated at the time of decommissioning. Although Habeck explained that the formula used to calculate this is “no secret”, it was not made available by either the ministry or the Commission when asked by Table.Briefings, meaning that it is currently impossible to say how much money will flow and under what conditions. It is also possible that the details have not yet been finalized, as according to the BMWK, only a decision in principle has been made so far; the final approval decision is not expected until later this year.
The €1.2 billion that will be paid out in any case will not go to Leag itself, but to two special purpose vehicles in which the states of Brandenburg and Saxony have rights of seizure. This is to ensure that they are actually used for the intended purposes. However, it is unclear whether there is enough money for the renaturation of the opencast mines. In addition to the €600 million earmarked for this from the compensation, Leag has paid in around €1 billion so far, according to Kramer. The estimated total costs were not disclosed, citing commercial confidentiality. mkr
Survey: What poor working conditions can lead to
A new survey by the Hans Böckler Foundation’s Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI) shows that employees’ working conditions influence their attitude towards democracy. Around 15,000 employees and job seekers in ten EU member states, including Germany, Italy and Poland, were interviewed for the survey at the end of 2023.
The result: People who are dissatisfied with their working conditions and salary and have little opportunity to have a say at work have an above-average negative view of democracy – and immigration. The world of work is relevant across Europe “in order to understand and combat the rise of the political far right”, said Bettina Kohlrausch, Scientific Director of the WSI.
The researchers see a special situation in Hungary, Poland and Italy: According to them, the higher the level of satisfaction with democracy, the higher the intention to vote for an extreme right-wing party. This shows that people have a different understanding of democracy and that the term itself “can be successfully instrumentalized by right-wing or totalitarian regimes”. okb
What Merz and Scholz say about the debate on ECR support for von der Leyen
CDU leader Friedrich Merz has called on the SPD and Chancellor Olaf Scholz to support the Christian Democrats’ lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) in her re-election as EU Commission President following her victory in the European elections. “From what we can tell today, the European Christian Democrats will be the clear winners of the election,” said the CDU/CSU parliamentary group leader in Berlin on Tuesday. He added: “Then, in my view, it goes without saying that everyone else will also respect the fact that the lead candidate (…) has the natural right to be put forward again as President of the EU Commission.”
Meanwhile, Scholz warned the Commission President against being elected to a second term in the European Parliament after the European elections with the votes of far-right or right-wing populist parties. The SPD stands by the “Spitzenkandidaten” (“top candidate”) principle and will always make this possible, said Scholz on Tuesday evening. “But one thing must be clear: a Commission President must always be supported by Europe’s democratic parties“, added the SPD politician. This includes conservatives, social democrats, liberals and also the Greens.
“There must be no far-right or right-wing populist parties”, said Scholz. He emphasized this because he sometimes has the impression that this is not being taken seriously. “No, I am very serious about this.” The Germans in particular have the task of helping to ensure that Europe is well governed even after the European elections, he said. “And we will not put this principle up for discussion.” Scholz left open what exactly this means for the vote. dpa/rtr
Opinion
Why we need majority decisions for EU foreign and security policy issues
For decades, the EU has been criticized for its inactivity in foreign and security policy, its sluggish responsiveness, and its cacophony in international crisis management. Authoritarian states often benefit from the disunity among the 27 member states. Important foreign policy decisions can be blocked by just one member state. As a result, the EU-27 is unable to act and the influence of third parties on Europe grows. This results in economic and political disadvantages for the Union, which can be associated with high costs.
The war in Ukraine has shown that member states can certainly put national interests aside in favor of a collective ability to act in the face of existential threats. The imposition of sanctions against Russia is historically unique in its scope.
As a security community, the EU is linked to the idea of not only fending off common threats but also ensuring the security of the EU and its citizens. The EU has therefore committed itself contractually to the goal of “promoting peace, security, and progress in Europe and the world”. However, the EU needs more to be “capable of global politics” (J.C. Juncker). It needs a Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) that puts the EU in an institutional position to represent the interests of Europe and its citizens vis-à-vis third parties not only in extraordinary crises but also in routine mode.
Waiving the right of veto
In order to prevent blockades in European foreign and security policy in the future, all member states must waive their right of veto in the Council and declare their willingness to vote by qualified majority on foreign policies towards Russia, China, or Iran (QMV). However, this requires a safety net mechanism (in “European”: Sovereignty Safety Net). The member states will only relinquish their reservations of sovereignty if they can rely on effective mechanisms to protect their national interests.
The EU treaties already provide for a number of mechanisms that soften the unanimity principle. The European Council can decide unanimously to extend the list of issues to be decided by majority vote. Member states can also abstain from voting if they disagree with a proposal so that the decision can be adopted despite their objections.
In both cases, a member state can pull the so-called “emergency brake” if it considers that it must reject the proposed decision for important and stated reasons of national policy; in this case, unanimity is again applied and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (currently Josep Borrell) is instructed to search for a solution. If the search is unsuccessful, the member states can decide to refer the matter to the European Council, where unanimity remains the rule.
Replacing individual vetoes with a ‘collective veto’
Despite these detailed provisions and existing safeguards against the possibility of being outvoted, member states insist on additional reassurances. A political declaration should therefore be adopted to ensure that national interests continue to be taken into account and that the High Representative seeks a compromise in case of conflict. Such a “sovereignty safety net” would greatly facilitate the transition to qualified majority voting in the CFSP.
It should also be stated here that member states may at any time express their reservation of voting rights in order to hold up a decision until an appropriate solution is found (the so-called Ioannina mechanism). In addition, the decision should confirm that the Council will continue to strive for consensus in the future. Finally, member states should develop political compromises that replace individual vetoes with a “collective veto”, which requires not one, but three member states representing a certain percentage of the population.
“Sovereignty safety nets” are political declarations that enable the EU to act in the CFSP without compromising its autonomy. Individual vetoes unnecessarily restrict the collective ability to act at the expense of Europe’s resilience and self-assertion. In the future, the newly elected European Parliament should not only act as a democratic watchdog but also do justice to the EU’s international role in the world within the framework of a supranational CFSP.
The “Group of Friends of Qualified Majority Voting”, founded in May 2023, brings together numerous EU member states that have submitted proposals for the introduction of qualified majority voting in the CFSP.
Europe.Table Editorial Team
EUROPE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE
Dear reader,
Once the ballot papers for the European elections have been counted next Monday, the poker for posts and influence in Brussels will really begin. Despite Charles Michel’s animosities and all the speculation surrounding Mario Draghi, Ursula von der Leyen still has the clearest prospect of becoming the new Commission President. Her EPP is expected to be the strongest force in the new European Parliament, and she has powerful advocates among the heads of state and government – including Olaf Scholz.
Nevertheless, von der Leyen cannot feel safe. If the CDU politician fails in the Council or does not receive a majority in the European Parliament, the Greens in Berlin will have their turn. In the coalition agreement with the traffic light coalition, the Greens have secured the right to propose the new German Commissioner “if the Commission President does not come from Germany”.
Franziska Brantner, Parliamentary State Secretary to Minister Robert Habeck, is highly regarded. She was a member of the European Parliament from 2009 to 2013, is considered to have excellent connections in Brussels and is also a tough negotiator. However, this would be a loss for Habeck, as my colleague Helene Bubrowski writes in our Berlin.Table: Brantner is expected to play a prominent role in the Green parliamentary election campaign, which Habeck is likely to lead as candidate for chancellor. However, those close to her deny that she has ambitions for the Brussels post.
The name Sven Giegold, civil servant state secretary to Habeck, also comes up. He sat in the European Parliament until 2021. However, he is considered a lone fighter who has found his role as head of office. According to Helene, Tarek Al-Wazir, the long-standing Hessian Minister of Economics, is also being discussed. However, the appointment would give the Greens the narrative that an election loser is being sent to Brussels – a reputation they do not want to have. A rumor spread by the controversial BILD newspaper, on the other hand, is likely to turn out to be a pipe dream: Annalena Baerbock is not to go to Brussels. At least not now.
In this issue, we also give you an initial overview of who the other member states could appoint to the new Commission. Some of this is still very speculative – but sometimes that’s what makes it so interesting to read.
Have a great day!
Feature
These are the possible Commissioners after the European elections
The timetable is tight: If Ursula von der Leyen succeeds in rallying the heads of state and government behind her and organizing a majority in the European Parliament, the MEPs could re-elect her as Commission President as early as the first week of their session in mid-July.
The CDU politician could then use the summer break to hold talks with the national candidates for the Commission and tailor their areas of responsibility in consultation with the capitals. In September, the nominees would then face hearings in the committees of the European Parliament. If MEPs approve the Commission as a whole, it could start work in November.
However, things could also turn out very differently – the European elections and the subsequent power game bring with them numerous uncertainties, and not just for von der Leyen. In Belgium and Bulgaria, the national parliaments are also being re-elected. It is therefore still completely unclear who the election winners will propose for the Commission.
We will give you an overview of the status of the discussions. Part two will follow tomorrow.
Denmark
Dan Jørgensen, the Social Democrat who is currently Minister for Development Cooperation and Global Climate Policy, is being touted as a possible commissioner. However, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is also rumored to have ambitions to move from Copenhagen to Brussels. Her coalition is just as unpopular at home as the Berlin traffic light. Given her experience in government, the Social Democrat could be considered as Council President, but her prospects would reportedly not be particularly good. Frederiksen could therefore theoretically put herself forward for the Commission – but the job would probably only be attractive to her if she became first deputy president of the Commission. However, others are also seeking the post – such as the Spanish candidate Teresa Ribeira.
Germany
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has an interest in Ursula von der Leyen remaining Commission President, despite the differences in their party records. Should the CDU politician fail, Berlin would hardly have access to the most important post in Brussels again. Then it would be the turn of the Greens, who have had the right to propose the new German Commissioner enshrined in the coalition agreement between the two parties “if the Commission President does not come from Germany”.
Franziska Brantner, Parliamentary State Secretary to Economics Minister Robert Habeck, has been mentioned as a possible candidate. Sven Giegold, civil servant State Secretary at the BMWK, and Tarek Al-Wazir, the long-standing Hessian Economics Minister, are also conceivable.
Estonia
The name of Prime Minister Kaja Kallas comes up again and again when it comes to the question of who Estonia will nominate for the future Commission. Even Kadri Simson, the current Commissioner for Energy, has spoken out: She believes, she told the Estonian broadcaster ERR, that Kallas will apply for a job in Brussels after the elections.
The liberal politician has distinguished herself as a tireless admonisher for resolute support for Ukraine and a tough stance against Russia. “What provokes an aggressor like Russia is weakness”, is a typical Kallas statement. In particular, she is being touted as a possible successor to EU foreign affairs commissioner Josep Borrell – or as defense commissioner.
Finland
As the largest governing party, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s National Rally Party (EPP) will propose the new Commissioner. The most likely candidate is the experienced MEP Henna Virkkunen. Orpo has signaled that he would like to nominate someone who stood as a candidate in the European elections.
France
Emmanuel Macron alone decides on the nomination. And the President of the Republic is known for leaving personnel matters open for as long as possible. One thing is clear: Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is hoping for a second term in office. However, the enterprising Commissioner angered Macron with one of his tweets attacking his boss Ursula von der Leyen at the EPP congress in March. Finance and Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire or former Transport Minister Clément Beaune are being touted as alternatives in Paris. But Macron is always good for a surprise.
Greece
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis decides who to send. The current Commission Vice-President Margarítis Schinás probably has the best chance of being nominated again.
Ireland
Commissioner Mairead McGuinness would like to continue and her profile would suit the agriculture portfolio. She is a member of Prime Minister Simon Harris ‘ Fine Gael party, which is part of the EPP. However, it has been agreed in the coalition that the second largest coalition partner, Fianna Fáil, will appoint the next Commissioner. This could be Charlie McConalogue. However, elections will be held in Ireland in the next seven months, which could still change things.
Italy
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has so far refused to reveal her cards. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, for example, is being touted as a possible candidate: The 70-year-old from Forza Italia was already a member of the Commission from 2008 to 2014, initially responsible for transport and later for enterprise and industry. Tajani is well connected and respected in Brussels. In recent weeks, he has publicly and vehemently advocated the appointment of an EU Commissioner for Defense – it is quite possible that he sees himself in this role.
Another name is Raffaele Fitto: The Minister for European Affairs was a Member of the European Parliament from 2014 to 2022, initially for Forza Italia and most recently for Melonis Fratelli. Until he joined the government in Rome in the fall of 2022, he was co-chair of the ECR parliamentary group. In Meloni’s cabinet, Fitto is responsible for the approximately 200 billion euros from the EU recovery fund and only recently assured that Italy is pursuing the goals agreed with Brussels “with extreme rigor”.
Francesco Lollobrigida, currently Minister of Agriculture, would be less easy to place. The 52-year-old is a member of the Fratelli, Meloni’s brother-in-law, and belongs to the relatively small circle of people Meloni trusts. However, his nomination would be a major risk for the Prime Minister: Lollobrigida has repeatedly made inappropriate statements, including talking about the “danger of ethnic exchange”.
Croatia
Following the parliamentary elections in April, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković’s HDZ (EPP) entered into a coalition with the ultra-right party DP. Plenković is likely to put forward the current Commission Vice-President Dubravka Šuica again.
Latvia
The future Latvian Commissioner may once again be Valdis Dombrovskis. The Executive Vice-President of the European Commission, responsible for an economy that serves the people and, since 2020, also for trade, is entering the European elections as the lead candidate of the ruling party Jaunā Vienotība (New Unity). On its website, the party advertises with the slogan “European experience for a secure Latvia”, next to which Dombrovskis can be seen. The 52-year-old has been a member of the Commission since 2014 and is currently the highest-ranking representative of the EPP after President Ursula von der Leyen.
Dombrovskis expressed his wish to remain Commissioner a while ago. His core issues in the European election campaign are support for Ukraine, competitiveness and security. With Krišjānis Kariņš, Dombrovskis has – or had – a prominent internal competitor for the position of Commissioner. However, Kariņš has come under massive pressure in recent months due to a flight scandal. He resigned from the post of Foreign Minister at the end of March.
Lithuania
The most obvious candidate is probably Gabrielius Landsbergis. Like Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister and TS-LKD chairman has made a name for himself with his clear stance on the Russian war in Ukraine. He recently backed French President Macron, for example, when he said that he would not rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine. However, some consider Landsbergis’ rhetoric to be too shrill at times, which could cloud his prospects for the post of EU foreign policy chief.
Luxembourg
Prime Minister Luc Frieden’s conservative-liberal coalition government has actually agreed to nominate former MEP Christophe Hansen. However, the European Social Democrats have chosen Nicolas Schmit from Luxembourg as their lead candidate – and are now urging Frieden to reappoint the former Labor Commissioner after the election. Their argument: as the lead candidate of what is probably the second largest party family, Schmit could demand a position as Vice-President with an important portfolio for Luxembourg. With Hansen, on the other hand, the small Grand Duchy would have to make do with a less relevant subject area. by Till Hoppe, Sarah Schaefer, Almut Siefert, Claire Stam
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Hydrogen: What industry and the BMWK are concerned about
A new Commission document is causing unrest in European industry and among EU member states even before it is published. The Commission wants to publish guidelines by the fall at the latest in order to clear up legal ambiguities regarding the industrial target for green hydrogen. Brussels circles are warning of two serious consequences for Europe’s manufacturing industry.
The Commission is considering using the guidelines to extend the quota for green hydrogen, which will apply from 2030, to derivatives such as ammonia and methanol. This was confirmed by two sources to Table.Briefings who did not wish to be named. This could increase the obligation for industry to use green hydrogen by at least 40 percent. In addition, the import of industrial goods based on hydrogen would become even more attractive – at the expense of European production.
BMWK wants ‘design conducive to the achievement of objectives’
The Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs is taking the matter so seriously that it is currently seeking external legal advice. One of the goals is a “legally secure, practicable application and interpretation of the regulations that is conducive to achieving the objectives”, according to the public invitation to tender issued by the industry department. The EU Commission has already invited experts from member states and associations to a workshop on May 24 to discuss the problem.
The background to the dispute is a single word from the Renewable Energy Directive. Parliament and member states agreed last year that the industry must cover 42% of its hydrogen from renewable fuels of non-biogenic origin (RFNBO) from 2030. The term RFNBO includes derivatives such as ammonia and methanol.
However, according to the directive, the calculation of the quota refers to RFNBO in the numerator and to “hydrogen” in the denominator. If interpreted literally, the EU states would therefore not have to replace their consumption of hydrogen derivatives with RFNBO.
In April, the Directorate-General for Energy discussed the consequences for the first time, according to reports in Brussels. The Commission itself is currently still quantifying the consequences of the demand for green hydrogen, a Commission official told Table Briefings. Some of the quantities in question are business secrets. However, the aim is to achieve a uniform interpretation by the member states.
Others say that the Commission considers the term “hydrogen” to be open to interpretation, which in its own view gives it leeway to include derivatives in the calculation through the guidelines.
Import of end products would circumvent quota
The industry fears negative consequences for European production in this case. “The inclusion of ammonia and methanol can create incentives for the import of end products that do not have to be in line with an expensive RFNBO target”, says an industry representative. Without the extension of the scope, it would be more attractive to import derivatives and process them into end products in Europe.
According to MEP Markus Pieper (CDU), the Commission is threatening to overstep its authority by reinterpreting the concept of hydrogen through legally non-binding guidelines. “It is unacceptable that the Commission is trying to reshape a hard-negotiated law through the back door”, says the rapporteur for the Renewable Energy Directive. “The Commission would massively fuel the risk of deindustrialization in Europe. We insist that the RFNBO quota for industry be implemented as negotiated.”
Further exemptions await national implementation
The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs also finds further exceptions to the directive in need of interpretation. For example, when calculating the consumption to be replaced, hydrogen that is required for the desulphurization of fossil fuels or that is produced as a by-product in the manufacture of certain basic chemicals may be excluded.
However, the process chains in refineries and chemical parks are complex. The BWMK consultants should therefore also address this aspect: “Which industrial applications can (still) be legally and justifiably subsumed under the exemptions, and which cannot?”
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TikTok: How the parties want to reach young people and outperform the AfD
AI-generated cover images, pointed headlines with a red background and almost 50,000 followers – this is the TikTok account of Maximilian Krah, the AfD’s lead candidate. Since the start of the European election campaign, the debate about the social network and the AfD’s success has revolved around TikTok. Meanwhile, the other parties are trying to keep up with Krah and the AfD and make themselves appealing to a misunderstood target group on the politically mostly newly developed network.
The European People’s Party (EPP) is focusing everything on one account – their parliamentary group account. However, its topics – rearmament, increased protection of the EU’s external borders and limiting migration – are sometimes barely mentioned.
The European Social Democrats (PES) take a different approach. There is no parliamentary group account; in the German election campaign, the focus is on that of SPD lead candidate Katarina Barley: excerpts from debates and clips aimed at young people in terms of tone and choice of words, without simplifying the message. However, the top issues of the election program – peace, pensions and the minimum wage – are often only touched on indirectly.
Martin Fuchs, political consultant, lecturer and author, criticizes in an interview with Table.Briefings: “The SPD provides too little European content, but rather works off the AfD.” It would be better at this point to set your own positive accents.
Strack-Zimmermann: dialogue and provocation
Europe’s Liberals (ALDE) are staging themselves and lead candidate Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann as a “Eurofighter”. With short videos, lots of interaction and provocative teasers, she adapts to the requirements of the platform. ALDE’s goals: less bureaucracy, a European army and support for the internationally agreed Paris climate target. Strack-Zimmermann’s aim: to provoke the competition.
According to Emmeline Charenton, Federal Secretary of the Young European Federalists in Germany, this is not the best strategy: “Shooting against the conservative democratic parties, for example the CDU, in an election campaign makes little sense. If you defame them, young people might move further to the right instead.”
The European Greens (EGP), whose goals include more climate protection and preventing the shift to the right, are using English-language excerpts from Reintke’s speeches and film footage from the election campaign with lead candidate Terry Reintke. Reintke’s TikTok appearance is characterized by quality content, recycled and not always perfectly adapted to TikTok, but without being superficial.
‘On Tiktok, ‘quick and dirty’ also works sometimes.’
The German top candidates of the European Left, Carola Rackete and Martin Schirdewan, score points with content and insights into their everyday political lives. Their goals: Fighting poverty, taxing large corporations and loosening EU debt rules. The quality of the images and sound could usually be improved. Fuchs therefore says: “In terms of professionalism, there are big differences between the parties.” But: TikTok has a different standard than other networks. “You have to recognize and understand people, but ‘quick and dirty’ also works on TikTok.”
As different as the strategies are, the candidates have one thing in common: They cannot match the reach of Krah, who is currently banned from appearing. The AfD lead candidate generates a lot of clicks with his pointed, polarizing content. With an omnipresent populist touch, he catches people where there are insecurities. This is also confirmed by Charenton from the Young European Federalists: “The AfD is hitting precisely those notches that have to do with the insecurity and frustration of young people.”
Parties lack content and network
Overall, political consultant Fuchs sees potential for improvement in the TikTok election campaign: “What is missing in order to really get young people to understand issues is above all content – the left and the Greens are most likely to succeed in this.” In addition, most parties lack a network that can disseminate their content. The AfD understood early on that it needed to rely on third-party accounts to reach people who had previously had nothing to do with it. Be it LGBTQ activists, craftsmen or martial artists – “these are often more appealing to young people than an old white man from the party cosmos.”
What does a campaign that wants to reach young people have to achieve? It has to show that it takes young people and their needs seriously, says Fuchs. “It needs an authentic and emotional approach and a focus on the problems of our time, such as war and peace, migration, the lack of housing or lost promises of advancement.” And it’s about presenting positive ideas and visions.
Politics needs to focus on young people
Ultimately, the question remains as to what real impact the TikTok election campaign will have. Fuchs believes that the videos will have an effect. However, the direct influence is manageable and massively overrated. “I am in favor of Democrats going there – it is the right channel to address young people, to educate, to address discourse and to provide positive input.” But he believes the expectation that this will win back elections and take votes away from the right is unjustified.
- AfD
- EU-Schuldenregeln
- European election 2024
- Tiktok
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News
European elections: How younger people vote
Young people are more pro-European, but vote less often. This is the result of a representative survey by “eupinions“, the European opinion research institute of the Bertelsmann Stiftung. The study will be published today, Wednesday. In the March survey, an EU average of 59% of voters between the ages of 16 and 25 said they would vote. 24 percent said “maybe” and 17 percent said “no”.
In the 26 to 69 age group, 65% of voters said “maybe”. 22 percent said “maybe”, 13 percent said “no”. In Germany, young voters are even more tired of voting: 57% in the young age group said they were going to vote, 27% said “maybe” and 16% said “no”. In the older age group, the figures were 62% (“yes”), 24% (“maybe”), 14% (“no”).
Referendum on remaining in the EU
The 16 to 25-year-olds are more pro-European than older voters. On average in the EU and in Germany, 78% of younger people would vote for their country to remain in the EU in a referendum. In the group of 26 to 69-year-olds, this figure was 65% on average in the EU and 66% in Germany.
When it comes to the reasons for voting, it is noticeable that younger people vote less often out of protest. When asked about their main motives (two answers possible), 23% of 16 to 25-year-olds said “to express disapproval of current politics” compared to 30% of 26 to 69-year-olds. As many as 41 percent of younger respondents stated “influencing who leads the next commission” compared to 38 percent of older respondents. 43% of younger respondents and 48% of older respondents want to “shape the direction of the EU“. “ Support the political party I feel closest to” is the most widespread. 50 percent of younger people and 52 percent of older people ticked this box.
Climate change is more important to younger people
Younger people have other issues that are important to them. When asked about three tasks that the EU should focus on in the next mandate, 50% of younger people said: “Protecting citizens’ rights“. Among older respondents, this figure was 32%. 42% of younger respondents mentioned “combating climate change“, compared to 31% of older respondents. 35% of younger respondents emphasized “fighting terrorism“, compared to 30% of older respondents. 33% of younger people voted for “safeguarding public health“, compared to 23% of older people. mgr
Green finance: Why the EU supervisory authorities warn against ‘greenwashing’
Europe’s supervisory authorities are joining forces to combat the increasing whitewashing of supposedly “green” financial products. Banks, insurers and other financial market players have a responsibility to provide sustainability information that is “fair, clear and not misleading”, emphasized the banking regulator EBA, the insurance regulator EIOPA and the securities regulator ESMA on Tuesday on the occasion of the publication of their latest analyses on so-called greenwashing in the financial sector.
The EU Commission wants to channel more money into “green” investments in order to accelerate the climate-friendly restructuring of the economy. Bank advisors and insurance brokers must therefore now ask clients about their ideas on sustainability when providing investment advice.
But what is actually sustainable, and where do providers only pretend to be environmentally and climate-friendly? As demand for sustainable investments increases, so does the risk of providers presenting products as “greener” than they actually are. The insurance regulator EIOPA warns: “If greenwashing is not tackled, it could undermine genuine efforts to finance the sustainable transition and weaken consumer confidence in the European insurance and pensions sector.”
More and more cases of ‘greenwashing’
According to EIOPA, the number of cases in the insurance sector has recently increased: In the current year, the national supervisory authorities of five member states had reported “greenwashing” cases, compared to three in 2023. According to the information, six other national supervisory authorities are currently investigating potential cases.
The EU Banking Supervisory Authority EBA has also observed a growing greenwashing risk among banks, investment firms and payment service providers. The result of the EBA’s quantitative analysis of greenwashing shows a significant increase in this trend in all sectors, including EU banks. The total number of suspected cases in the European Union increased further in 2023: by 26.1 percent compared to 2022, the EBA reported.
The supervisory authorities’ analyses of “greenwashing” are part of a broader initiative. In March 2023, the EU Commission presented a legislative proposal that would oblige companies to meet minimum standards when making claims about the climate-friendliness or sustainability of their products. The Commission’s aim: Anyone buying a product advertised as environmentally friendly should be able to be sure that the product really is “green”.
In its press release, ESMA also called on national supervisory authorities to deploy more human resources and supervisory tools to combat “greenwashing”. dpa
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EU Commission makes Leag compensation partly conditional
The East German lignite company Leag will initially only receive €1.2 billion in compensation for the agreed coal phase-out instead of the €1.75 billion promised by the German government. This sum is intended to cover the additional costs that will be incurred in any case as a result of the legally agreed phase-out of coal-fired power generation. €600 million of this is to cover the additional costs of renaturalizing the opencast mines, while a further €600 million is to be used to provide social security for existing employees. This was announced by Minister Robert Habeck and Leag CEO Thorsten Kramer on Tuesday.
The remaining €550 million were made conditional by the EU Commission, which must approve the compensation agreed as part of the coal phase-out in 2019 as state aid. This is intended to compensate Leag for the profits that the company lost as a result of the earlier coal phase-out. However, it is completely unclear whether there are any lost profits at all; many experts assume that the coal-fired power plants would be taken off the grid solely due to market developments even without a political decision.
Costs of renaturation are unclear
For this reason, the EU Commission has now stipulated that the amount of profit each power plant could have made by continuing to operate should be calculated at the time of decommissioning. Although Habeck explained that the formula used to calculate this is “no secret”, it was not made available by either the ministry or the Commission when asked by Table.Briefings, meaning that it is currently impossible to say how much money will flow and under what conditions. It is also possible that the details have not yet been finalized, as according to the BMWK, only a decision in principle has been made so far; the final approval decision is not expected until later this year.
The €1.2 billion that will be paid out in any case will not go to Leag itself, but to two special purpose vehicles in which the states of Brandenburg and Saxony have rights of seizure. This is to ensure that they are actually used for the intended purposes. However, it is unclear whether there is enough money for the renaturation of the opencast mines. In addition to the €600 million earmarked for this from the compensation, Leag has paid in around €1 billion so far, according to Kramer. The estimated total costs were not disclosed, citing commercial confidentiality. mkr
Survey: What poor working conditions can lead to
A new survey by the Hans Böckler Foundation’s Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI) shows that employees’ working conditions influence their attitude towards democracy. Around 15,000 employees and job seekers in ten EU member states, including Germany, Italy and Poland, were interviewed for the survey at the end of 2023.
The result: People who are dissatisfied with their working conditions and salary and have little opportunity to have a say at work have an above-average negative view of democracy – and immigration. The world of work is relevant across Europe “in order to understand and combat the rise of the political far right”, said Bettina Kohlrausch, Scientific Director of the WSI.
The researchers see a special situation in Hungary, Poland and Italy: According to them, the higher the level of satisfaction with democracy, the higher the intention to vote for an extreme right-wing party. This shows that people have a different understanding of democracy and that the term itself “can be successfully instrumentalized by right-wing or totalitarian regimes”. okb
What Merz and Scholz say about the debate on ECR support for von der Leyen
CDU leader Friedrich Merz has called on the SPD and Chancellor Olaf Scholz to support the Christian Democrats’ lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) in her re-election as EU Commission President following her victory in the European elections. “From what we can tell today, the European Christian Democrats will be the clear winners of the election,” said the CDU/CSU parliamentary group leader in Berlin on Tuesday. He added: “Then, in my view, it goes without saying that everyone else will also respect the fact that the lead candidate (…) has the natural right to be put forward again as President of the EU Commission.”
Meanwhile, Scholz warned the Commission President against being elected to a second term in the European Parliament after the European elections with the votes of far-right or right-wing populist parties. The SPD stands by the “Spitzenkandidaten” (“top candidate”) principle and will always make this possible, said Scholz on Tuesday evening. “But one thing must be clear: a Commission President must always be supported by Europe’s democratic parties“, added the SPD politician. This includes conservatives, social democrats, liberals and also the Greens.
“There must be no far-right or right-wing populist parties”, said Scholz. He emphasized this because he sometimes has the impression that this is not being taken seriously. “No, I am very serious about this.” The Germans in particular have the task of helping to ensure that Europe is well governed even after the European elections, he said. “And we will not put this principle up for discussion.” Scholz left open what exactly this means for the vote. dpa/rtr
Opinion
Why we need majority decisions for EU foreign and security policy issues
For decades, the EU has been criticized for its inactivity in foreign and security policy, its sluggish responsiveness, and its cacophony in international crisis management. Authoritarian states often benefit from the disunity among the 27 member states. Important foreign policy decisions can be blocked by just one member state. As a result, the EU-27 is unable to act and the influence of third parties on Europe grows. This results in economic and political disadvantages for the Union, which can be associated with high costs.
The war in Ukraine has shown that member states can certainly put national interests aside in favor of a collective ability to act in the face of existential threats. The imposition of sanctions against Russia is historically unique in its scope.
As a security community, the EU is linked to the idea of not only fending off common threats but also ensuring the security of the EU and its citizens. The EU has therefore committed itself contractually to the goal of “promoting peace, security, and progress in Europe and the world”. However, the EU needs more to be “capable of global politics” (J.C. Juncker). It needs a Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) that puts the EU in an institutional position to represent the interests of Europe and its citizens vis-à-vis third parties not only in extraordinary crises but also in routine mode.
Waiving the right of veto
In order to prevent blockades in European foreign and security policy in the future, all member states must waive their right of veto in the Council and declare their willingness to vote by qualified majority on foreign policies towards Russia, China, or Iran (QMV). However, this requires a safety net mechanism (in “European”: Sovereignty Safety Net). The member states will only relinquish their reservations of sovereignty if they can rely on effective mechanisms to protect their national interests.
The EU treaties already provide for a number of mechanisms that soften the unanimity principle. The European Council can decide unanimously to extend the list of issues to be decided by majority vote. Member states can also abstain from voting if they disagree with a proposal so that the decision can be adopted despite their objections.
In both cases, a member state can pull the so-called “emergency brake” if it considers that it must reject the proposed decision for important and stated reasons of national policy; in this case, unanimity is again applied and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (currently Josep Borrell) is instructed to search for a solution. If the search is unsuccessful, the member states can decide to refer the matter to the European Council, where unanimity remains the rule.
Replacing individual vetoes with a ‘collective veto’
Despite these detailed provisions and existing safeguards against the possibility of being outvoted, member states insist on additional reassurances. A political declaration should therefore be adopted to ensure that national interests continue to be taken into account and that the High Representative seeks a compromise in case of conflict. Such a “sovereignty safety net” would greatly facilitate the transition to qualified majority voting in the CFSP.
It should also be stated here that member states may at any time express their reservation of voting rights in order to hold up a decision until an appropriate solution is found (the so-called Ioannina mechanism). In addition, the decision should confirm that the Council will continue to strive for consensus in the future. Finally, member states should develop political compromises that replace individual vetoes with a “collective veto”, which requires not one, but three member states representing a certain percentage of the population.
“Sovereignty safety nets” are political declarations that enable the EU to act in the CFSP without compromising its autonomy. Individual vetoes unnecessarily restrict the collective ability to act at the expense of Europe’s resilience and self-assertion. In the future, the newly elected European Parliament should not only act as a democratic watchdog but also do justice to the EU’s international role in the world within the framework of a supranational CFSP.
The “Group of Friends of Qualified Majority Voting”, founded in May 2023, brings together numerous EU member states that have submitted proposals for the introduction of qualified majority voting in the CFSP.
Europe.Table Editorial Team
EUROPE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE
