The EU Commission is not giving up hope of bringing the trade talks with the Mercosur states to a successful conclusion after all. “The conclusion of negotiations with Mercosur is within reach before the end of this mandate,” said Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis after the informal meeting of EU trade ministers in Brussels. They are working on seizing this opportunity “of major geopolitical importance.”
At the beginning of December, the Commission thought it was already close to its goal. But then, the outgoing Argentinian President Alberto Ángel Fernández decided to leave the decision to his successor Javier Milei. Negotiations were interrupted but are now back on track. Whether they succeed this time, however, is not just down to the populist Milei: Emmanuel Macron also has considerable reservations – not least because of the domestic farmers, who are already on the barricades anyway, as you can read in a feature by my colleague Claire Stam.
The position of the EU Commission and member states on carbon capture is actually clear. It should focus on those sectors in which other measures to reduce carbon are insufficient. These so-called “hard-to-abate” sectors primarily include industrial plants such as cement production. The energy sector is explicitly not included, as there are cost-effective alternatives to fossil fuels in the form of renewable energies.
It is therefore all the more surprising that the Commission assumes CCS will have to be used to decarbonize gas and coal-fired power plants soon. CCS currently plays virtually no role in the energy industry. However, as early as 2040, 26 to 41 million tons of carbon would have to be captured from fossil fuel power plants in the EU. From 2050, it would even have to be 55 million tons per year. This is according to a draft of the Commission’s impact assessment on the 2040 climate target, parts of which are available to Table.Media.
According to the 120-page first part of the impact assessment, a total of around 450 million tons of carbon per year are to be captured from 2050 onwards:
The captured carbon is then to be stored underground (247 million tons of carbon), used for the production of e-fuels (147) or the production of synthetic materials (59).
The Commission examined three scenarios for the impact assessment: The middle scenario means an 88 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2040, which is at the lower end of what experts still consider suitable for staying on the 1.5-degree path. It corresponds to a current policy scenario in which climate laws from the Green Deal continue to apply. The lower scenario, on the other hand, corresponds to a linear carbon reduction of around 78 percent by 2040.
The third scenario, favored in the impact assessment, would mean a 92 percent reduction in carbon by 2040. This is remarkable because, according to the latest reports, the Commission will only propose a carbon target of 90 percent on February 6.
According to the analysis, the switch to renewable energies would also make Europe significantly less dependent on energy imports. However, some argue that Europe will be largely dependent on hydrogen from other continents in the future.
According to the impact assessment, however, dependence on energy imports will fall from the current 61 percent to just 15 percent in 2050 – more than half of which will be for material use, for example in the chemical industry. According to the Commission, it will be a long time before imports of low-carbon hydrogen reach a significant level: “Imports of RFNBOs [renewable fuels of non-biological origin] will increase after 2035, but only in small quantities due to the still relatively high costs.”
However, there is also a downside to this development: “The high demand for renewable energies, storage technologies and new technologies can lead to new dependencies on raw material or technology imports from non-EU countries.” To counteract this trend, important laws are already on the way – above all the Critical Raw Materials Act and the Net-Zero Industry Act.
Synthetic fuels would only account for seven percent of final energy consumption (39 Mtoe) even by the middle of the century. However, the ramp-up in the favored path would have to be significantly accelerated with a carbon reduction of 92 percent by 2040. The share of e-fuels would then be five percent (30 Mtoe) compared to three percent (18 Mtoe) with the carbon reduction according to the current policy path.
The vast majority of e-fuels are expected to be needed in the transport sector, as the Commission has a clear opinion on the frequently circulating opinions that hydrogen can be used for heating buildings: “The consumption of RFNBOs in the building sector will remain limited throughout the entire period.”
With a 90 percent reduction target for 2040, the land use sector (LULUCF) is expected to store 317 million tons of carbon equivalents annually. For 2050, the Commission is planning for 333 million tons of carbon equivalents.
“It is anger that is being expressed,” said Arnaud Rousseau, President of the powerful Fédération Nationale des Syndicats d’Exploitants Agricoles (FNSEA) on French public broadcaster France Inter on Monday. In France, farmers are currently stepping up their actions in the countryside – in particular with blockades on the highways in southern France. These actions will be carried out “for as long as necessary throughout the week,” warned the president of France’s largest agricultural union.
As with the German farmers’ protests, the issue is diesel: French farmers are protesting against the end of the tax exemption for agricultural diesel, which is used to power tractors and agricultural machinery. They fear that the price will rise by 20 cents from €1 to around €1.20 per liter in the course of January. They are also demanding financial support from the state, as the epizootic hemorrhagic disease that affects cattle farming, particularly in the southwest of the country, continues to spread. So far, the veterinary costs of the affected farmers have not been reimbursed. The farmers are struggling with deaths and miscarriages in their herds. As a result, they have to accept losses in turnover when selling calves.
The government announced that it would decide on support by the end of the week after the union met with Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and Agriculture Minister Marc Fesneau on Monday evening. The farmers are calling for a debate on:
The Ministry of Agriculture assures that the Green Deal will not be abandoned. The government in Paris is also keen on the proposal for new genomic techniques to be implemented. The EU Parliament’s Environment Committee will vote on the law on Wednesday.
The French government has been on alert for several days and has decided to postpone its draft law on agriculture by “a few weeks.” This is an attempt to respond to the farmers’ anger. Attal and Fesneau are on the front line, trying to defuse the political discontent that could result in a loss of votes in the European elections. Head of State Emmanuel Macron will visit the agricultural fair, which will take place in Paris from February 24 – a must in French politics.
The National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) estimates that agriculture in France generated a total turnover of €95.5 billion in 2023. This is around 0.8 percent less than in the previous year. In 2021, the figure was still €81.6 billion. France’s share of agricultural production in the EU is 17 percent. It is the member state with the largest agricultural production, ahead of Germany and Italy. The bottom line is that sales have risen over the past two years. This was also driven by the rise in the price of agricultural commodities.
The latest figures from INSEE also show that the overall situation of agricultural businesses did not improve in 2023. The rise in costs, particularly due to high energy and fertilizer prices, continued, even though the rate of inflation was lower than in the previous year. The average income of farmers is therefore likely to fall. Within 20 years, France has fallen from 2nd to 5th place among the world’s agricultural exporters.
The French protests run parallel to the farmers’ protests in Romania, the Netherlands, Poland, Lithuania and Germany. Arnaud Rousseau refers to the Green Deal, whose “vision is clearly backward-looking” as it states that “we have to reduce our production in Europe at a time when imports have exploded.” He has his sights particularly set on the “farm to fork” strategy, which has been called into question since the start of the war in Ukraine. Farmers no longer understand the purpose of the measures, says the FNSEA President. As a result, there is a “lack of understanding” about what is being asked of farmers.
Rousseau denounces the lack of “coherence” in European decisions: you cannot conclude trade agreements that import products that do not meet European production conditions and simultaneously demand production conditions from farmers that overburden the sector. Especially as French agriculture is already recognized as very sustainable, warns Rousseau.
Politics and poetry are two fields that could hardly be more different. But Eva van de Rakt knows how to combine the two. The head of the EU and North America department at the Heinrich Böll Foundation published her German-Czech poetry collection “Unter Oberflächen / Pod povrchy” (“under surfaces”) in 2019. The idea that this would require two separate parallel lives – discussing during the day, writing poetry at night – seems completely absurd to van de Rakt. The poems undoubtedly reflect a part of her day-to-day work, and not a separate refuge, she says.
The possibilities of art, explains the trained dance teacher, broaden and sharpen the view, opening it up to the diversity of reality. Seen in this light, poetry, at least in terms of its dynamics, is surprisingly close to political education: “Movement, being in motion, but also constant observation and questioning – all of this can be expressed in poems.”
It is therefore no coincidence that the political foundation for which van de Rakt has been working since 2001 is the only one in Germany to be named after a writer. After four years as office manager in Brussels, she is now responsible for the political and strategic direction of the EU and North America departments, for which she oversees a team in Berlin and seven offices abroad. She and her staff are tasked with developing political objectives that promise to have a lasting impact: “We have the privilege of not having to react to day-to-day political events.”
Four topics have emerged as the central tasks for the future: The socio-ecological transformation, the future of the European project, the preservation of democracy and human rights and the cultivation of transatlantic relations. These topics can be addressed in strategy papers and long-term studies, but also in discussion events, conferences and atlases, through which the Heinrich Böll Foundation aims to achieve a broader impact.
In addition to these public issues, there are also confidential formats: “We are observing a shrinking scope of action for partner organizations, which we offer protected spaces for networking and strategy development.” This not only affects allies from outside the EU, but the situation within the EU has also worsened in many places to such an extent that voices under pressure have to ask for help.
One of the big questions currently on van de Rakt’s mind is why the geopolitical risks posed by authoritarian regimes could be ignored for so long and how this can be avoided in the future. To this end, painful subjects must be addressed, for example, the anti-democratic tendencies that are currently gaining momentum within the EU. Without strengthening the EU, it is difficult to imagine how European democracies can be stabilized in the long term: “Despite a noticeable brutalization of political culture everywhere and the attacks on our democracies, the seriousness of the situation has still not reached everyone.”
According to van de Rakt, the next European elections in June 2024 could result in a shift to the right, which could pose major risks for the future of the EU. It is now imperative that all democratic parties take responsibility and form alliances to jointly defend European values.
The necessary direction is clear to van de Rakt. She is campaigning for an EU that stands up for democratic and socio-ecological concerns in a credible and united manner. This applies to almost all areas, from security and defense to migration, climate and energy.
In van de Rakt’s view, institutional reforms are essential: “The EU must become more capable of acting in many areas and fit for future rounds of enlargement if it does not want to lose global significance.” However, a common and respectful language that makes everyone involved believe in projects of this scale must also be found. With the volumes of poetry in her briefcase, Eva van de Rakt is well prepared for these challenges. Julius Schwarzwälder
The EU Commission is not giving up hope of bringing the trade talks with the Mercosur states to a successful conclusion after all. “The conclusion of negotiations with Mercosur is within reach before the end of this mandate,” said Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis after the informal meeting of EU trade ministers in Brussels. They are working on seizing this opportunity “of major geopolitical importance.”
At the beginning of December, the Commission thought it was already close to its goal. But then, the outgoing Argentinian President Alberto Ángel Fernández decided to leave the decision to his successor Javier Milei. Negotiations were interrupted but are now back on track. Whether they succeed this time, however, is not just down to the populist Milei: Emmanuel Macron also has considerable reservations – not least because of the domestic farmers, who are already on the barricades anyway, as you can read in a feature by my colleague Claire Stam.
The position of the EU Commission and member states on carbon capture is actually clear. It should focus on those sectors in which other measures to reduce carbon are insufficient. These so-called “hard-to-abate” sectors primarily include industrial plants such as cement production. The energy sector is explicitly not included, as there are cost-effective alternatives to fossil fuels in the form of renewable energies.
It is therefore all the more surprising that the Commission assumes CCS will have to be used to decarbonize gas and coal-fired power plants soon. CCS currently plays virtually no role in the energy industry. However, as early as 2040, 26 to 41 million tons of carbon would have to be captured from fossil fuel power plants in the EU. From 2050, it would even have to be 55 million tons per year. This is according to a draft of the Commission’s impact assessment on the 2040 climate target, parts of which are available to Table.Media.
According to the 120-page first part of the impact assessment, a total of around 450 million tons of carbon per year are to be captured from 2050 onwards:
The captured carbon is then to be stored underground (247 million tons of carbon), used for the production of e-fuels (147) or the production of synthetic materials (59).
The Commission examined three scenarios for the impact assessment: The middle scenario means an 88 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2040, which is at the lower end of what experts still consider suitable for staying on the 1.5-degree path. It corresponds to a current policy scenario in which climate laws from the Green Deal continue to apply. The lower scenario, on the other hand, corresponds to a linear carbon reduction of around 78 percent by 2040.
The third scenario, favored in the impact assessment, would mean a 92 percent reduction in carbon by 2040. This is remarkable because, according to the latest reports, the Commission will only propose a carbon target of 90 percent on February 6.
According to the analysis, the switch to renewable energies would also make Europe significantly less dependent on energy imports. However, some argue that Europe will be largely dependent on hydrogen from other continents in the future.
According to the impact assessment, however, dependence on energy imports will fall from the current 61 percent to just 15 percent in 2050 – more than half of which will be for material use, for example in the chemical industry. According to the Commission, it will be a long time before imports of low-carbon hydrogen reach a significant level: “Imports of RFNBOs [renewable fuels of non-biological origin] will increase after 2035, but only in small quantities due to the still relatively high costs.”
However, there is also a downside to this development: “The high demand for renewable energies, storage technologies and new technologies can lead to new dependencies on raw material or technology imports from non-EU countries.” To counteract this trend, important laws are already on the way – above all the Critical Raw Materials Act and the Net-Zero Industry Act.
Synthetic fuels would only account for seven percent of final energy consumption (39 Mtoe) even by the middle of the century. However, the ramp-up in the favored path would have to be significantly accelerated with a carbon reduction of 92 percent by 2040. The share of e-fuels would then be five percent (30 Mtoe) compared to three percent (18 Mtoe) with the carbon reduction according to the current policy path.
The vast majority of e-fuels are expected to be needed in the transport sector, as the Commission has a clear opinion on the frequently circulating opinions that hydrogen can be used for heating buildings: “The consumption of RFNBOs in the building sector will remain limited throughout the entire period.”
With a 90 percent reduction target for 2040, the land use sector (LULUCF) is expected to store 317 million tons of carbon equivalents annually. For 2050, the Commission is planning for 333 million tons of carbon equivalents.
“It is anger that is being expressed,” said Arnaud Rousseau, President of the powerful Fédération Nationale des Syndicats d’Exploitants Agricoles (FNSEA) on French public broadcaster France Inter on Monday. In France, farmers are currently stepping up their actions in the countryside – in particular with blockades on the highways in southern France. These actions will be carried out “for as long as necessary throughout the week,” warned the president of France’s largest agricultural union.
As with the German farmers’ protests, the issue is diesel: French farmers are protesting against the end of the tax exemption for agricultural diesel, which is used to power tractors and agricultural machinery. They fear that the price will rise by 20 cents from €1 to around €1.20 per liter in the course of January. They are also demanding financial support from the state, as the epizootic hemorrhagic disease that affects cattle farming, particularly in the southwest of the country, continues to spread. So far, the veterinary costs of the affected farmers have not been reimbursed. The farmers are struggling with deaths and miscarriages in their herds. As a result, they have to accept losses in turnover when selling calves.
The government announced that it would decide on support by the end of the week after the union met with Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and Agriculture Minister Marc Fesneau on Monday evening. The farmers are calling for a debate on:
The Ministry of Agriculture assures that the Green Deal will not be abandoned. The government in Paris is also keen on the proposal for new genomic techniques to be implemented. The EU Parliament’s Environment Committee will vote on the law on Wednesday.
The French government has been on alert for several days and has decided to postpone its draft law on agriculture by “a few weeks.” This is an attempt to respond to the farmers’ anger. Attal and Fesneau are on the front line, trying to defuse the political discontent that could result in a loss of votes in the European elections. Head of State Emmanuel Macron will visit the agricultural fair, which will take place in Paris from February 24 – a must in French politics.
The National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) estimates that agriculture in France generated a total turnover of €95.5 billion in 2023. This is around 0.8 percent less than in the previous year. In 2021, the figure was still €81.6 billion. France’s share of agricultural production in the EU is 17 percent. It is the member state with the largest agricultural production, ahead of Germany and Italy. The bottom line is that sales have risen over the past two years. This was also driven by the rise in the price of agricultural commodities.
The latest figures from INSEE also show that the overall situation of agricultural businesses did not improve in 2023. The rise in costs, particularly due to high energy and fertilizer prices, continued, even though the rate of inflation was lower than in the previous year. The average income of farmers is therefore likely to fall. Within 20 years, France has fallen from 2nd to 5th place among the world’s agricultural exporters.
The French protests run parallel to the farmers’ protests in Romania, the Netherlands, Poland, Lithuania and Germany. Arnaud Rousseau refers to the Green Deal, whose “vision is clearly backward-looking” as it states that “we have to reduce our production in Europe at a time when imports have exploded.” He has his sights particularly set on the “farm to fork” strategy, which has been called into question since the start of the war in Ukraine. Farmers no longer understand the purpose of the measures, says the FNSEA President. As a result, there is a “lack of understanding” about what is being asked of farmers.
Rousseau denounces the lack of “coherence” in European decisions: you cannot conclude trade agreements that import products that do not meet European production conditions and simultaneously demand production conditions from farmers that overburden the sector. Especially as French agriculture is already recognized as very sustainable, warns Rousseau.
Politics and poetry are two fields that could hardly be more different. But Eva van de Rakt knows how to combine the two. The head of the EU and North America department at the Heinrich Böll Foundation published her German-Czech poetry collection “Unter Oberflächen / Pod povrchy” (“under surfaces”) in 2019. The idea that this would require two separate parallel lives – discussing during the day, writing poetry at night – seems completely absurd to van de Rakt. The poems undoubtedly reflect a part of her day-to-day work, and not a separate refuge, she says.
The possibilities of art, explains the trained dance teacher, broaden and sharpen the view, opening it up to the diversity of reality. Seen in this light, poetry, at least in terms of its dynamics, is surprisingly close to political education: “Movement, being in motion, but also constant observation and questioning – all of this can be expressed in poems.”
It is therefore no coincidence that the political foundation for which van de Rakt has been working since 2001 is the only one in Germany to be named after a writer. After four years as office manager in Brussels, she is now responsible for the political and strategic direction of the EU and North America departments, for which she oversees a team in Berlin and seven offices abroad. She and her staff are tasked with developing political objectives that promise to have a lasting impact: “We have the privilege of not having to react to day-to-day political events.”
Four topics have emerged as the central tasks for the future: The socio-ecological transformation, the future of the European project, the preservation of democracy and human rights and the cultivation of transatlantic relations. These topics can be addressed in strategy papers and long-term studies, but also in discussion events, conferences and atlases, through which the Heinrich Böll Foundation aims to achieve a broader impact.
In addition to these public issues, there are also confidential formats: “We are observing a shrinking scope of action for partner organizations, which we offer protected spaces for networking and strategy development.” This not only affects allies from outside the EU, but the situation within the EU has also worsened in many places to such an extent that voices under pressure have to ask for help.
One of the big questions currently on van de Rakt’s mind is why the geopolitical risks posed by authoritarian regimes could be ignored for so long and how this can be avoided in the future. To this end, painful subjects must be addressed, for example, the anti-democratic tendencies that are currently gaining momentum within the EU. Without strengthening the EU, it is difficult to imagine how European democracies can be stabilized in the long term: “Despite a noticeable brutalization of political culture everywhere and the attacks on our democracies, the seriousness of the situation has still not reached everyone.”
According to van de Rakt, the next European elections in June 2024 could result in a shift to the right, which could pose major risks for the future of the EU. It is now imperative that all democratic parties take responsibility and form alliances to jointly defend European values.
The necessary direction is clear to van de Rakt. She is campaigning for an EU that stands up for democratic and socio-ecological concerns in a credible and united manner. This applies to almost all areas, from security and defense to migration, climate and energy.
In van de Rakt’s view, institutional reforms are essential: “The EU must become more capable of acting in many areas and fit for future rounds of enlargement if it does not want to lose global significance.” However, a common and respectful language that makes everyone involved believe in projects of this scale must also be found. With the volumes of poetry in her briefcase, Eva van de Rakt is well prepared for these challenges. Julius Schwarzwälder
