The high did not last long. In August, Frans Timmermans briefly had justified hopes of becoming the next Prime Minister in The Hague. This was after the social democratic PvdA and GroenLinks announced that they would be standing together for the first time in the parliamentary elections for the second chamber with Timmermans as list leader.
The Vice-President of the EU Commission has given up his job as climate czar in Brussels early in order to win the post of Prime Minister in The Hague after 13 years under the right-wing liberal Mark Rutte. The bet does not seem to be paying off, as shortly before the parliamentary elections on Wednesday, the quasi-merged parties have slipped to third or fourth place, depending on the polls.
In a fragmented party landscape and a tight race, Frans Timmermans must hope for a last-minute surprise. Critics say that the returnee has not really been able to find his feet in the election campaign and has not been able to focus on his issues. Differences over the Middle East crisis have also damaged the alliance, with Timmermans being criticized by his own people for positioning himself on the side of Israel. At the same time, the 62-year-old’s merits for the climate turnaround in Brussels have not really helped. The EU and the climate crisis were only marginal issues in the election campaign.
The election campaign in the Netherlands has not revolved around the prominent returnee Frans Timmermans but around the outsider Pieter Omtzigt. The party rebel seems to have the Netherlands under his spell. He appears like a savior who promises to bring direction back to the unsettled country. Yet the 49-year-old only founded his party with the unwieldy name “New Social Contract” in August.
He is running to restore the public’s trust in politics. A great ambition after a series of scandals that have been rubbing off on the outgoing long-term head of government Mark Rutte, not without reason also known as the Teflon man. Pieter Omtzigt himself owes his brilliant rise to his role as a whistleblower in a scandal in which the authorities falsely accused over 30,000 parents of receiving child benefits, driving many to ruin.
Pieter Omtzigt was a member of parliament for the Christian Democrats for 19 years, traditionally the governing party and until recently also a coalition partner of Mark Rutte. But as a whistleblower, the headstrong lone fighter was rejected by his own people, which is why he is now running with his own party after a long break. Now, unlike the returning Timmermans, he has managed to present himself as a newcomer in politics.
In the polls, the “New Social Contract” party is ahead with just under 20 percent, albeit neck and neck with the right-wing liberal governing party of Rutte, who is not running again after 13 years and is leaving the top position to his former Justice Minister Dilan Yesilgöz, who once came to the country as a refugee from Turkey. The right-wing populist Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party are also still well ahead.
With 15 political groups currently in the second chamber, the political landscape is highly fragmented and volatile. In the summer, a new right-wing populist Farmers’ Citizens’ Movement (BBB) was at the top of the polls with over 20 percent, but has now fallen far behind again. What Pieter Omtzigt’s new “social contract” should look like remains rather vague. The new party leader promises a policy for “ordinary citizens” and wants to win back the people’s trust in those in power. The long-time Christian Democrat is a populist who comes from the political center.
When it comes to social policy, Omtzigt tends to tick to the left, making it difficult for newcomer Timmermans to stand out. The state should once again ensure that households can live on their income and that young people can find an affordable roof over their heads in view of the acute housing shortage. According to Pieter Omtzigt, neoliberalism has been taken to extremes in recent years. The time of the lean, frugal state could be over.
When it comes to migration, the newcomer sounds more right-wing. Omtzigt wants to abolish tax benefits for expats, reduce immigration into the low-wage agricultural sector, and cut the number of the 100,000 migrant workers and asylum seekers per year to around half. At universities, teaching is to be held increasingly in Dutch again in order to curb the boom in foreign students after Brexit.
After the elections, at least three or probably four parties will again be needed to form a governing majority. Pieter Omtzigt has the best cards here because he would be indispensable both for a center-right coalition and for the center-left. Frans Timmermans must hope that he will find his place as a junior partner in a coalition government. In the end, Pieter Omtzigt was only hurt by the fact that he left it open until the end in television debates whether he would become prime minister himself if he won the election or whether he would nominate someone from his party for the job. The outsider does not necessarily see himself in government.
It is not an easy phase for Europe’s green parties. They are slipping in the polls and losing ground in many capital cities. In Germany, too, they are more often conspicuous for their squabbles within the traffic light government than for their progressive green industrial and climate policies. The European elections on June 9, 2024 are therefore not coming at the best time, as there is a risk of heavy losses. The German Greens are currently the largest group within the Greens/EFA group in the EU Parliament, but they are likely to suffer losses.
The forecast of 15 seats is wafting through the corridors in Brussels. In addition to Ska Keller and Reinhard Bütikofer, who are no longer running, four more of the current 21 MEPs from Germany would lose their seats. The vote will take place on Friday and Saturday in Karlsruhe at the federal delegates’ conference. However, the battle for the safe front seats has long since begun.
Terry Reintke is not affected by this. She is running for first place on the Green Party’s European list – so far without a known opponent. The Gelsenkirchen native is a passionate European, is running for the EU Parliament for the third time, and wants to turn the tide for her party in the upcoming European elections. With her candidacy, she wants to cover a whole bouquet of topics that are currently being hotly debated in both Brussels and Berlin: Foreign policy, migration, and ecological transformation.
She has been practicing this since Ska Keller stepped down as head of the Green Group in the EU Parliament in September last year. While her previous topics were women’s rights, workers’ rights, and upholding the rule of law, the 36-year-old now has to deal with all European issues. Her goal is not only to become the lead candidate in Germany but also to become the lead candidate for the European Greens – in both cases with good to very good chances of success.
Behind them, however, things start to get hairy for the first time. Climate politician Michael Bloss from Stuttgart and foreign policy expert Sergey Lagodinsky from Berlin want to take second place. In their five-minute speeches before the vote (plus five minutes for follow-up questions), both have to convince the delegates of their program. While Lagodinsky is campaigning for a fairer asylum policy in which “NGOs are not criminalized because they help people on the run”, Bloss is focusing on social climate and industrial policy in which “big polluters pay more and people on low incomes get more back”.
Bloss has a slight advantage in winning the vote thanks to the large Baden-Württemberg state association behind him. However, 85% of delegates do not come from Baden-Württemberg and their vote is likely to be based on criteria other than origin. Lagodinsky’s foreign policy profile is also likely to speak in favor of the Berliner in the current world situation. In any case, neither of them need to worry about entering the EU Parliament. It is agreed that the loser of the election for second place will receive the fourth place on the list – unless a surprise candidate spontaneously emerges and shakes up the election once again.
The odd-numbered places on the list are reserved for women. Hannah Neumann and Anna Cavazzini are running for third place. Neumann, from Berlin, comes from the Realo wing and is currently the Greens’ spokesperson for peace and human rights policy in the EU Parliament and head of the EP delegation for relations with the Gulf states. The upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai (COP28) and the criticism of the host therefore fall squarely within Neumann’s area of expertise, which could help her score points in the battle vote.
However, the policy area of Cavazzini, Chair of the Internal Market Committee in the EU Parliament, is no less topical. The Saxon by choice and party left-winger helped initiate the highly topical laws on corporate due diligence, deforestation-free supply chains, and the ban on the sale of products from forced labor. She describes the Right to Repair, with which she is fighting against the throwaway society, as a project close to her heart.
In the end, the wing logic of the Greens could also be decisive for the result of the vote. If the left-winger Bloss wins second place, Cavazzini will have little chance of winning third place. This is because the designated top candidate Terry Reintke also comes from the left wing. The same applies to Neumann if Lagodinsky wins ahead of her. In any case, the loser of third place is destined for fifth place on the list and is also likely to enter the EU Parliament again.
The places behind are also considered safe, but there are significantly more candidates, which could lead to unpleasant scenarios. Officially, only agricultural politician Martin Häusling is running for 6th place, although financial expert Rasmus Andresen is also likely to be in the running. After all, he has been group leader of the German Greens in the EP since Sven Giegold moved to Berlin.
This time, however, the loser does not automatically get the next available place on the list. According to reports, the asylum and migration politician Erik Marquardt – a well-known face and driving force for young, left-wing Greens – wants 8th place. A promising candidate is also waiting in 10th place: Daniel Freund, who is primarily concerned with issues relating to EU reforms and corruption. It is therefore possible that Häusling or Andresen will be passed through to 12th place or even further. Malte Gallée, Niklas Nienaß, and Romeo Franz are also waiting to be nominated. Not all of them will make it to a promising place.
Among the women, Katrin Langensiepen is considered the most promising candidate in 7th place, although parliamentary group deputy Alexandra Geese or Henrike Hahn could also attempt to run against her. Environmental and climate politician Jutta Paulus could enter the race in 9th place, as could transport politician Anna Deparnay-Grunenberg. Here, a battle of the votes and disappointed losers is almost inevitable. Behind them, Viola von Cramon-Taubadel and Pierrette Herzberger-Fofana also want to defend their status as Members of the European Parliament.
New candidates will therefore find it extremely difficult to reach the top places on the list – especially not without a fighting vote. However, the delegates in Karlsruhe will also be keen to give the next generation of European politicians a chance to enter the EU Parliament. After all, a few new faces can be good for any party.
Nov. 20 was marked by cooperation with Africa. In the morning, the “G20 Investment Summit” took place at the invitation of the Sub-Saharan Africa Initiative of the German Economy. And from early afternoon, the Federal Chancellor invited numerous partners from Africa and the world to the “G20 Compact with Africa 2023 Conference” at the Chancellor’s Office.
In 2017, Germany, as the G20 Presidency, launched the “G20 Compact with Africa” (CwA). Since then, the G20 has been working closely with reform-oriented African partners within the CwA towards a common goal: More foreign private investments by improving the economic framework conditions in the CwA countries. The CwA countries are supported by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the African Development Bank. This created a unique multilateral partnership format from which all participants can benefit. The CwA has now firmly established itself as the central format of cooperation between the G20 and African partners – also taking into account Africa’s significant role in an increasingly multipolar world.
A look at the figures of the current CwA monitoring report shows: CwA countries – more open to trade and foreign direct investments due to reforms – were able to recover exceptionally well from the economic consequences of the pandemic. Last year, the economic growth of the CwA countries was twice as high as that of the non-CwA African countries, and export growth was almost four times as high. The CwA countries, especially due to the large volume of investments in the renewable energy sector in Egypt and Morocco, managed to increase foreign direct investments sixfold compared to the previous year.
Interest in the CwA remains strong. The Democratic Republic of Congo has recently joined as the 13th member, adding to the twelve existing Compact states. And more reform-oriented states have expressed their interest in joining and are therefore already sitting at the table at the CwA Conference in Berlin. At this conference, the Federal Government aims for concrete results with its partners.
To strengthen private investments, the Federal Government has recently decided on incentives for greater diversification of foreign economic relations: From now on, more favorable guarantee conditions apply for direct investments in certain countries. This also applies to the CwA countries and is intended to diversify and make supply chains more resilient. This also applies to closer cooperation in the sustainable extraction and local processing of raw materials, following the Federal Government’s principle of partnership and local value creation instead of extractivism. The Federal Government can also build on the successful initiatives “Africa Connect” and “Africa Grow” with attractive financing offers. The “African Trade and Investment Development Insurance” agency supported by the Federal Government offers financial products for risk mitigation and promotes cross-border trade and foreign direct investments. In addition, the Federal Government is strengthening its diverse support offer to reduce the entry threshold for companies into the CwA markets.
Many of the CwA countries also have excellent potential for renewable energies, while Germany will have to cover a large part of its demand for green hydrogen through imports in the future. Therefore, the CwA Conference aims to be a starting point for strengthened and long-term cooperation in sustainable energy supply, locally and for the export of green hydrogen and derivatives from Africa to Germany and Europe. Germany can build on the “Africa-EU Green Energy Initiative,” which is expected to receive a further boost from the CwA Conference. Through a combination of public and private investments, this initiative aims to massively advance the expansion of renewable energies in Africa – for the local energy transition, the industrial development of Africa, and the export.
Dr. Steffen Meyer is the Head of the Department of Economic, Financial, and Climate Policy in the Federal Chancellery. The economist’s responsibilities also include the Federal Government’s foreign trade initiatives. Meyer has worked for many years in the Federal Ministry of Finance and at the International Monetary Fund.
The high did not last long. In August, Frans Timmermans briefly had justified hopes of becoming the next Prime Minister in The Hague. This was after the social democratic PvdA and GroenLinks announced that they would be standing together for the first time in the parliamentary elections for the second chamber with Timmermans as list leader.
The Vice-President of the EU Commission has given up his job as climate czar in Brussels early in order to win the post of Prime Minister in The Hague after 13 years under the right-wing liberal Mark Rutte. The bet does not seem to be paying off, as shortly before the parliamentary elections on Wednesday, the quasi-merged parties have slipped to third or fourth place, depending on the polls.
In a fragmented party landscape and a tight race, Frans Timmermans must hope for a last-minute surprise. Critics say that the returnee has not really been able to find his feet in the election campaign and has not been able to focus on his issues. Differences over the Middle East crisis have also damaged the alliance, with Timmermans being criticized by his own people for positioning himself on the side of Israel. At the same time, the 62-year-old’s merits for the climate turnaround in Brussels have not really helped. The EU and the climate crisis were only marginal issues in the election campaign.
The election campaign in the Netherlands has not revolved around the prominent returnee Frans Timmermans but around the outsider Pieter Omtzigt. The party rebel seems to have the Netherlands under his spell. He appears like a savior who promises to bring direction back to the unsettled country. Yet the 49-year-old only founded his party with the unwieldy name “New Social Contract” in August.
He is running to restore the public’s trust in politics. A great ambition after a series of scandals that have been rubbing off on the outgoing long-term head of government Mark Rutte, not without reason also known as the Teflon man. Pieter Omtzigt himself owes his brilliant rise to his role as a whistleblower in a scandal in which the authorities falsely accused over 30,000 parents of receiving child benefits, driving many to ruin.
Pieter Omtzigt was a member of parliament for the Christian Democrats for 19 years, traditionally the governing party and until recently also a coalition partner of Mark Rutte. But as a whistleblower, the headstrong lone fighter was rejected by his own people, which is why he is now running with his own party after a long break. Now, unlike the returning Timmermans, he has managed to present himself as a newcomer in politics.
In the polls, the “New Social Contract” party is ahead with just under 20 percent, albeit neck and neck with the right-wing liberal governing party of Rutte, who is not running again after 13 years and is leaving the top position to his former Justice Minister Dilan Yesilgöz, who once came to the country as a refugee from Turkey. The right-wing populist Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party are also still well ahead.
With 15 political groups currently in the second chamber, the political landscape is highly fragmented and volatile. In the summer, a new right-wing populist Farmers’ Citizens’ Movement (BBB) was at the top of the polls with over 20 percent, but has now fallen far behind again. What Pieter Omtzigt’s new “social contract” should look like remains rather vague. The new party leader promises a policy for “ordinary citizens” and wants to win back the people’s trust in those in power. The long-time Christian Democrat is a populist who comes from the political center.
When it comes to social policy, Omtzigt tends to tick to the left, making it difficult for newcomer Timmermans to stand out. The state should once again ensure that households can live on their income and that young people can find an affordable roof over their heads in view of the acute housing shortage. According to Pieter Omtzigt, neoliberalism has been taken to extremes in recent years. The time of the lean, frugal state could be over.
When it comes to migration, the newcomer sounds more right-wing. Omtzigt wants to abolish tax benefits for expats, reduce immigration into the low-wage agricultural sector, and cut the number of the 100,000 migrant workers and asylum seekers per year to around half. At universities, teaching is to be held increasingly in Dutch again in order to curb the boom in foreign students after Brexit.
After the elections, at least three or probably four parties will again be needed to form a governing majority. Pieter Omtzigt has the best cards here because he would be indispensable both for a center-right coalition and for the center-left. Frans Timmermans must hope that he will find his place as a junior partner in a coalition government. In the end, Pieter Omtzigt was only hurt by the fact that he left it open until the end in television debates whether he would become prime minister himself if he won the election or whether he would nominate someone from his party for the job. The outsider does not necessarily see himself in government.
It is not an easy phase for Europe’s green parties. They are slipping in the polls and losing ground in many capital cities. In Germany, too, they are more often conspicuous for their squabbles within the traffic light government than for their progressive green industrial and climate policies. The European elections on June 9, 2024 are therefore not coming at the best time, as there is a risk of heavy losses. The German Greens are currently the largest group within the Greens/EFA group in the EU Parliament, but they are likely to suffer losses.
The forecast of 15 seats is wafting through the corridors in Brussels. In addition to Ska Keller and Reinhard Bütikofer, who are no longer running, four more of the current 21 MEPs from Germany would lose their seats. The vote will take place on Friday and Saturday in Karlsruhe at the federal delegates’ conference. However, the battle for the safe front seats has long since begun.
Terry Reintke is not affected by this. She is running for first place on the Green Party’s European list – so far without a known opponent. The Gelsenkirchen native is a passionate European, is running for the EU Parliament for the third time, and wants to turn the tide for her party in the upcoming European elections. With her candidacy, she wants to cover a whole bouquet of topics that are currently being hotly debated in both Brussels and Berlin: Foreign policy, migration, and ecological transformation.
She has been practicing this since Ska Keller stepped down as head of the Green Group in the EU Parliament in September last year. While her previous topics were women’s rights, workers’ rights, and upholding the rule of law, the 36-year-old now has to deal with all European issues. Her goal is not only to become the lead candidate in Germany but also to become the lead candidate for the European Greens – in both cases with good to very good chances of success.
Behind them, however, things start to get hairy for the first time. Climate politician Michael Bloss from Stuttgart and foreign policy expert Sergey Lagodinsky from Berlin want to take second place. In their five-minute speeches before the vote (plus five minutes for follow-up questions), both have to convince the delegates of their program. While Lagodinsky is campaigning for a fairer asylum policy in which “NGOs are not criminalized because they help people on the run”, Bloss is focusing on social climate and industrial policy in which “big polluters pay more and people on low incomes get more back”.
Bloss has a slight advantage in winning the vote thanks to the large Baden-Württemberg state association behind him. However, 85% of delegates do not come from Baden-Württemberg and their vote is likely to be based on criteria other than origin. Lagodinsky’s foreign policy profile is also likely to speak in favor of the Berliner in the current world situation. In any case, neither of them need to worry about entering the EU Parliament. It is agreed that the loser of the election for second place will receive the fourth place on the list – unless a surprise candidate spontaneously emerges and shakes up the election once again.
The odd-numbered places on the list are reserved for women. Hannah Neumann and Anna Cavazzini are running for third place. Neumann, from Berlin, comes from the Realo wing and is currently the Greens’ spokesperson for peace and human rights policy in the EU Parliament and head of the EP delegation for relations with the Gulf states. The upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai (COP28) and the criticism of the host therefore fall squarely within Neumann’s area of expertise, which could help her score points in the battle vote.
However, the policy area of Cavazzini, Chair of the Internal Market Committee in the EU Parliament, is no less topical. The Saxon by choice and party left-winger helped initiate the highly topical laws on corporate due diligence, deforestation-free supply chains, and the ban on the sale of products from forced labor. She describes the Right to Repair, with which she is fighting against the throwaway society, as a project close to her heart.
In the end, the wing logic of the Greens could also be decisive for the result of the vote. If the left-winger Bloss wins second place, Cavazzini will have little chance of winning third place. This is because the designated top candidate Terry Reintke also comes from the left wing. The same applies to Neumann if Lagodinsky wins ahead of her. In any case, the loser of third place is destined for fifth place on the list and is also likely to enter the EU Parliament again.
The places behind are also considered safe, but there are significantly more candidates, which could lead to unpleasant scenarios. Officially, only agricultural politician Martin Häusling is running for 6th place, although financial expert Rasmus Andresen is also likely to be in the running. After all, he has been group leader of the German Greens in the EP since Sven Giegold moved to Berlin.
This time, however, the loser does not automatically get the next available place on the list. According to reports, the asylum and migration politician Erik Marquardt – a well-known face and driving force for young, left-wing Greens – wants 8th place. A promising candidate is also waiting in 10th place: Daniel Freund, who is primarily concerned with issues relating to EU reforms and corruption. It is therefore possible that Häusling or Andresen will be passed through to 12th place or even further. Malte Gallée, Niklas Nienaß, and Romeo Franz are also waiting to be nominated. Not all of them will make it to a promising place.
Among the women, Katrin Langensiepen is considered the most promising candidate in 7th place, although parliamentary group deputy Alexandra Geese or Henrike Hahn could also attempt to run against her. Environmental and climate politician Jutta Paulus could enter the race in 9th place, as could transport politician Anna Deparnay-Grunenberg. Here, a battle of the votes and disappointed losers is almost inevitable. Behind them, Viola von Cramon-Taubadel and Pierrette Herzberger-Fofana also want to defend their status as Members of the European Parliament.
New candidates will therefore find it extremely difficult to reach the top places on the list – especially not without a fighting vote. However, the delegates in Karlsruhe will also be keen to give the next generation of European politicians a chance to enter the EU Parliament. After all, a few new faces can be good for any party.
Nov. 20 was marked by cooperation with Africa. In the morning, the “G20 Investment Summit” took place at the invitation of the Sub-Saharan Africa Initiative of the German Economy. And from early afternoon, the Federal Chancellor invited numerous partners from Africa and the world to the “G20 Compact with Africa 2023 Conference” at the Chancellor’s Office.
In 2017, Germany, as the G20 Presidency, launched the “G20 Compact with Africa” (CwA). Since then, the G20 has been working closely with reform-oriented African partners within the CwA towards a common goal: More foreign private investments by improving the economic framework conditions in the CwA countries. The CwA countries are supported by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the African Development Bank. This created a unique multilateral partnership format from which all participants can benefit. The CwA has now firmly established itself as the central format of cooperation between the G20 and African partners – also taking into account Africa’s significant role in an increasingly multipolar world.
A look at the figures of the current CwA monitoring report shows: CwA countries – more open to trade and foreign direct investments due to reforms – were able to recover exceptionally well from the economic consequences of the pandemic. Last year, the economic growth of the CwA countries was twice as high as that of the non-CwA African countries, and export growth was almost four times as high. The CwA countries, especially due to the large volume of investments in the renewable energy sector in Egypt and Morocco, managed to increase foreign direct investments sixfold compared to the previous year.
Interest in the CwA remains strong. The Democratic Republic of Congo has recently joined as the 13th member, adding to the twelve existing Compact states. And more reform-oriented states have expressed their interest in joining and are therefore already sitting at the table at the CwA Conference in Berlin. At this conference, the Federal Government aims for concrete results with its partners.
To strengthen private investments, the Federal Government has recently decided on incentives for greater diversification of foreign economic relations: From now on, more favorable guarantee conditions apply for direct investments in certain countries. This also applies to the CwA countries and is intended to diversify and make supply chains more resilient. This also applies to closer cooperation in the sustainable extraction and local processing of raw materials, following the Federal Government’s principle of partnership and local value creation instead of extractivism. The Federal Government can also build on the successful initiatives “Africa Connect” and “Africa Grow” with attractive financing offers. The “African Trade and Investment Development Insurance” agency supported by the Federal Government offers financial products for risk mitigation and promotes cross-border trade and foreign direct investments. In addition, the Federal Government is strengthening its diverse support offer to reduce the entry threshold for companies into the CwA markets.
Many of the CwA countries also have excellent potential for renewable energies, while Germany will have to cover a large part of its demand for green hydrogen through imports in the future. Therefore, the CwA Conference aims to be a starting point for strengthened and long-term cooperation in sustainable energy supply, locally and for the export of green hydrogen and derivatives from Africa to Germany and Europe. Germany can build on the “Africa-EU Green Energy Initiative,” which is expected to receive a further boost from the CwA Conference. Through a combination of public and private investments, this initiative aims to massively advance the expansion of renewable energies in Africa – for the local energy transition, the industrial development of Africa, and the export.
Dr. Steffen Meyer is the Head of the Department of Economic, Financial, and Climate Policy in the Federal Chancellery. The economist’s responsibilities also include the Federal Government’s foreign trade initiatives. Meyer has worked for many years in the Federal Ministry of Finance and at the International Monetary Fund.
