Intensive work on European defense integration is underway in Paris these days. After President Emmanuel Macron spoke out in favor of a European military academy and a European cybersecurity capacity in his major Sorbonne speech yesterday, Minister for Defense Boris Pistorius is on a somewhat more tangible mission in the City of Lights today.
After a lengthy back and forth, he is signing a memorandum of understanding in Paris today to regulate the division of labor for the Franco-German Main Ground Combat System (MGCS) tank project. During the visit of his French counterpart Sébastien Lecornu in March – when the ministers reached the agreement they are signing today – Pistorius described it as “historic”.
The companies involved in the development of the combat system, Rheinmetall and the holding company KNDS, which was formed from the French Nexter and the German tank manufacturer KMW, had particularly struggled to develop the tank’s turret and cannon. Pressure from politicians is said to have helped to get the legal documents for the new development phase ready for signing.
The ministers told the FAZ in a harmonious double interview that the detailed contract should be finalized at the beginning of 2025. The system should be ready for deployment in the 2040s and replace the Leopard tanks on the German side and the Leclerc tanks on the French side.
If Macron has his way, the EU will have taken a few more steps towards integration in its defense policy by then.
French President Emmanuel Macron has made an urgent plea for a further strengthening of European sovereignty. “We must be aware today that our Europe is mortal, it can die“, he said in his speech at the Sorbonne University. Whether it comes to this depends “solely on our decisions”. But the decisions must be made now.
Macron was referring to the rise of extremism in Europe and the interference of autocratic powers such as Russia and China. Europe must deal with the threatening security situation and the risk of being left behind economically. On a cultural level, Europe’s democratic and humanist model is being called into question.
The concept of European sovereignty, which the French president outlined in his first Sorbonne speech in 2017, is therefore more relevant than ever in Macron’s opinion. Given the dangers, Europe must make “massive strategic decisions”, he warned.
Unlike his predecessor Angela Merkel in 2017, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reacted promptly to Macron’s speech: The common goal of France and Germany is “that Europe remains strong”, Scholz said on Thursday on X. “Your speech contains good ideas on how we can achieve this.”
Nils Schmid, Chairman of the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly, spoke of an “important, stirring speech” – even if, after seven years in office, Macron could of course no longer develop the visionary power of his first Sorbonne speech. The French President had pushed through his idea of European sovereignty in the EU and achieved great progress together with Germany, for example with the coronavirus bonds or in European industrial policy, the SPD MEP told Table.Briefings.
With his second Sorbonne speech, Macron wants to continue on the path he has taken. He is backing more European industrial policy, including in the field of armaments, and is calling for a joint investment program.
The tenor of the speech is “very ambitious” and reflects the demands of Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi for far-reaching EU reforms, says Camille Defard, Director of the Jacques Delors Energy Center. Macron is raising the bar of the political discourse on the future of the EU by calling for a new paradigm for budgetary, monetary, trade and industrial policy to meet the new geopolitical realities.
The Élysée Palace did not want the speech a few weeks before the European elections to be interpreted as an election campaign, but rather as a “European institutional moment”. Macron wanted to present his ideas for the strategic agenda for the coming years, which the heads of state and government want to adopt at their post-election summit in mid-June. This will in turn be incorporated into the work program of the new EU Commission.
In particular, the French President calls for a “prosperity pact”. He emphasized that climate-friendly production represents an “opportunity for reindustrialization and the preservation of our industries”. We must therefore “stop playing decarbonization and growth off against each other”. Macron cited hydrogen and battery production as an example. By 2030, all the batteries required should be manufactured in Europe and European semiconductor production should be doubled.
In addition, regulation at EU level must be streamlined. This means a modernization of the internal market, an end to “systematic regulation” and a reduction in levies, especially for small companies.
Macron is also focusing on a more intensive industrial policy and a “Made in Europe” strategy. Europe must strive to become a global leader in five strategic fields of technology by 2030: AI, quantum computing, space, biotechnology and new energies. In this context, he mentions hydrogen, small modular reactors and nuclear fusion, but does not mention renewable energies.
At the same time, Macron emphasized the importance of the European defense industry for its own defense. He called for domestic manufacturers to be prioritized in the procurement of military equipment. Macron criticized the fact that three-quarters of the funds from the European Peace Facility had been used to make purchases outside of Europe. He also called for the European Investment Bank (EIB) to provide more support to the arms industry.
The President is once again calling for additional funds for the EU level. Macron emphasized that he wanted to discuss “a joint public investment shock” and the European Union’s greater financial capacity to act with its European partners. This also includes the controversial new resources for the EU. However, Macron will have to”convince Germany and the frugal countries” of his plans, says Peggy Corlin, head of the Robert Schuman Foundation’s office in Brussels.
It should put an end to “Qatargate” and many other scandals: On Thursday, the European Parliament in Strasbourg approved the establishment of an independent ethics body for the EU institutions. The new body is to set “generally applicable standards for ethical conduct” and also initiate investigations in justified individual cases.
That would be good news if it weren’t for the recent increase in reports of unethical behavior in parliament. Not only Qatar and Morocco, but also Russia and China are said to have tried to influence MEPs and spy on the Strasbourg chamber. This is suggested by findings from the Czech and Belgian secret services and investigations by the German Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office.
The scandal surrounding the AfD’s leading candidate for the European elections, Maximilian Krah, recently caused a stir. One of his assistants is alleged to have spied for China. There are also suspicions that Krah himself may have accepted money from a pro-Russian Ukrainian. Nevertheless, the German politician refuses to renounce his status as a top candidate for the European elections.
In a separate resolution, Parliament is now calling for clarification. Krah and the AfD must put all the facts on the table and “publicly declare their financial ties to the Kremlin without delay“. The MEPs also emphasized their “extreme concern” about the suspicion of espionage against Krah’s assistant Jian G. The man is now in custody and has been suspended by Parliament.
However, many EU politicians and experts believe that the case is far from over. The Krah case has revealed glaring security gaps, said Danish MEP Karen Melchior (Renew). “We do not know whether the parliamentary staff complies with all security regulations”, she explained. This shortcoming must be remedied “before the next legislature”, Melchior said.
Background: Assistants and other employees are subject to a security check before they are hired. However, in the case of Jian G., this apparently did not help any more than the rule that assistants are not allowed to carry out any activities that could lead to a conflict of interest. Krah also denies having any knowledge of G.’s suspected espionage activities.
Parliamentary deputy Jan-Christoph Oetjen (FDP) is also dissatisfied. “We cannot allow foreign powers to influence European politics”, he said on the Phoenix television channel. According to Oetjen, the European Parliament must seek clarification itself. There is not enough time for a committee of inquiry. However, it would be conceivable to appoint a special investigator.
However, this does not appear to be the case. The national authorities alone are responsible for investigations, explained parliamentary spokesperson Jaume Duch when asked by Table.Briefings. They would work closely with the German judiciary should a corresponding request be received. Moreover, Parliament has repeatedly warned against foreign interference since 2019 at the latest.
However, this is not enough, criticize the NGOs “Transparency International” (TI) and LobbyControl. “As Krah himself maintained contacts with the Chinese government, the AfD, the EU Parliament and the responsible authorities in Germany should also take a close look at his role. They must now investigate any potentially criminal conduct by Krah himself”, says Imke Dierßen, Political Director of LobbyControl.
The new ethics committee is a step forward, explained TI. However, it comes too late and does not go far enough (“too little, too late”). For example, there is no possibility of sanctioning unethical behavior by MEPs. In addition, almost half of the MEPs voted against the ethics committee. “They had to be pushed into it”, says TI expert Shari Hinds.
The EPP continues to question the new body. Sven Simon (CDU), constitutional policy spokesperson for the EPP group, emphasized that there was no legal basis. Furthermore, although the European Council was involved in defining the ethical rules, it did not want to be bound by them. “Against this background, today is a black day for the European Parliament.”
In contrast, Daniel Freund (Greens), who had promoted the ethics committee as rapporteur, speaks of a “green success”. The “culture of impunity” is coming to an end. However, similar hopes had already been associated with the transparency rules that Parliament had adopted following the Qatargate – the biggest corruption scandal to date and one that has still not been solved.
However, despite the strict rules introduced in 2023, Krah was able to build up a German-Chinese lobby network. Furthermore, the European Parliament does not yet have a supervisory body like the Bundestag, which would enable it to share and scrutinize the intelligence services’ findings. This is why MEPs are largely in the dark about the latest scandals.
The German Social Democrats are entering the EU election campaign by staging themselves as strategists and taking sideswipes at the CDU and its lead candidate. “Leyen is hiding her candidates. Germany’s strongest voices for Europe show them“, reads the text for one of the election posters, which shows a silhouette of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and a photo of SPD lead candidate Katharina Barley. The SPD presented its campaign material yesterday.
The campaign film shows Barley and Chancellor Olaf Scholz as level-headed strategists playing chess. “Keeping threats at bay” and “social policy for you” are the slogans. The leaders of the Social Democrats are able to find compromises and “at a time when so much is at stake, our country does not need populism, but well-considered decisions“, the one-minute video says. The slogans for the poster motifs are peace, justice, security and cohesion. ber
Six weeks from yesterday, Thursday, the first polling stations will open in the Netherlands. And things are slowly getting serious in the European election campaign. The last plenary week of the European Parliament in this election period is coming to an end, the leading candidates of the European parties will meet next Monday in Maastricht for the first major debate and the first election posters are going up in Germany. But what about the polls?
Looking only at the bottom line figures, not too much has changed in the weeks since the last seat projection at the end of February. The European People’s Party (EPP) stands at 173 seats in the basic scenario (-3 compared to February) and thus maintains its lead over the social democratic S&D group (132 seats/-3). In the dynamic scenario, which also takes into account possible group memberships of new member parties after the election, the gap is even slightly larger: The EPP comes to 181 seats here, the S&D to 134. Both large groups would thus roughly maintain their share of seats in the current Parliament.
Third place, on the other hand, is hotly contested. While the liberal RE group (86/+1/dynamic scenario: 89) could lose around a tenth of its seats compared to the last election, the two far-right groups EKR (81/+3/86) and ID (83/-2/99) are expected to make strong gains. The exact balance of power between them will probably only be decided after the election as a result of new group memberships. The most important question mark is the Hungarian governing party Fidesz, which would like to join the ECR but is not welcome by many of its members. Joining the ID group, which is also assumed in the dynamic scenario of this seat projection, therefore seems more plausible. However, it remains very, very unlikely that the EKR and ID could merge to form a single large right-wing parliamentary group, as the Polish former head of government Mateusz Morawiecki (PiS/EKR) recently suggested.
The Greens (51/+3/53) have improved the most compared to the last seat projection. This is also due to the fact that European election-specific polls are now available for most member states, which take into account the fact that the Greens often mobilize better than other parties in European elections. However, this factor seems to be somewhat weaker this year than in the past, as interest in the election has generally increased and therefore voter turnout among voters of other parties is also likely to increase. Overall, the Greens will probably fall back to their long-term average level after the exceptionally successful European elections in 2019.
There were few changes compared to February in the left-wing group (35/±0/39) and the non-attached parties (35/-1/39). Hungarian Péter Magyar, who led large demonstrations against the Orbán government, has caused a sensation in recent weeks. With his TISZA party, he could win three seats in the European Parliament – not at the expense of Fidesz, however, but at the expense of other opposition parties. In the base scenario of the seat projection, TISZA belongs to the “other” parties that are not yet represented in Parliament (44/+2); in the dynamic scenario, it is included in the EPP.
Overall, this already provides some very clear insights for the period after the election. Unless the polls are completely wrong (for which there is no indication), the EPP’s place as the strongest group in Parliament is unlikely to be taken away. At the same time, it is becoming clear that the center-left alliance of S&D, RE, Greens and Left will lose its narrow majority in parliament. While the four groups were able to push some important decisions through Parliament against the EPP in the last parliamentary term, this would no longer be possible. The EPP will therefore not only be the strongest group, but also the “kingmaker”, without which no plausible majorities are possible on either the left or the right.
This also strengthens the position of the incumbent Commission President and EPP lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen (CDU/EPP). Given her clear lead in the polls, she appears to be focusing on avoiding risks in the election campaign – not entirely unlike the approach taken in Germany by former Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU/EPP). Even whether von der Leyen would take part in the top candidate debates was open for a long time. She only confirmed her participation in the debate in Maastricht after strong criticism from the Greens in particular. However, another debate, which was due to take place in Florence at the end of May, has already been canceled.
The greatest danger for von der Leyen could be that there is too much polarization within her grand coalition before the election – and that too many national parties commit to not re-electing her during the election campaign. For example, the European liberals have started to target von der Leyen at an early stage; Italy’s Matteo Renzi (IV/EDP) has already announced that he will vote against her in parliament. The attacks by some EPP member parties, such as the French Républicains, are even more serious.
Overall, however, the majority of MEPs are likely to have little interest in actually preventing von der Leyen’s re-election. Without an alternative center-left majority, this would probably only lead to a blockade in Parliament. This in turn would allow the European Council to ignore the top candidate procedure, as it did in 2019, and present a surprise candidate. A more constructive way for the S&D, Liberals and Greens to deal with the situation would be to demand concessions from the EPP in return for its approval of von der Leyen. For example, in the form of a coalition agreement that lays down certain substantive guidelines for legislation in the next legislative period and establishes rules for dealing with the strengthened right-wing groups.
But first, of course, the European voters have their say. The seat projection presented here is only a snapshot of the political mood – there are still just over 40 days to go until the European elections.
As there are no pan-European election polls, the seat projection is based on aggregated national polls and election results from all member states. In the base scenario, all national parties are assigned to their current parliamentary group (or the parliamentary group of their European umbrella party); parties without a clear assignment are shown as “other”. The dynamic scenario assigns all “other” parties to a parliamentary group that they could plausibly join and also includes other possible changes to the parliamentary groups.
Further information on the data basis and methodology of the projection as well as a more detailed breakdown of the results can be found on the blog The (European) Federalist.
Intensive work on European defense integration is underway in Paris these days. After President Emmanuel Macron spoke out in favor of a European military academy and a European cybersecurity capacity in his major Sorbonne speech yesterday, Minister for Defense Boris Pistorius is on a somewhat more tangible mission in the City of Lights today.
After a lengthy back and forth, he is signing a memorandum of understanding in Paris today to regulate the division of labor for the Franco-German Main Ground Combat System (MGCS) tank project. During the visit of his French counterpart Sébastien Lecornu in March – when the ministers reached the agreement they are signing today – Pistorius described it as “historic”.
The companies involved in the development of the combat system, Rheinmetall and the holding company KNDS, which was formed from the French Nexter and the German tank manufacturer KMW, had particularly struggled to develop the tank’s turret and cannon. Pressure from politicians is said to have helped to get the legal documents for the new development phase ready for signing.
The ministers told the FAZ in a harmonious double interview that the detailed contract should be finalized at the beginning of 2025. The system should be ready for deployment in the 2040s and replace the Leopard tanks on the German side and the Leclerc tanks on the French side.
If Macron has his way, the EU will have taken a few more steps towards integration in its defense policy by then.
French President Emmanuel Macron has made an urgent plea for a further strengthening of European sovereignty. “We must be aware today that our Europe is mortal, it can die“, he said in his speech at the Sorbonne University. Whether it comes to this depends “solely on our decisions”. But the decisions must be made now.
Macron was referring to the rise of extremism in Europe and the interference of autocratic powers such as Russia and China. Europe must deal with the threatening security situation and the risk of being left behind economically. On a cultural level, Europe’s democratic and humanist model is being called into question.
The concept of European sovereignty, which the French president outlined in his first Sorbonne speech in 2017, is therefore more relevant than ever in Macron’s opinion. Given the dangers, Europe must make “massive strategic decisions”, he warned.
Unlike his predecessor Angela Merkel in 2017, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reacted promptly to Macron’s speech: The common goal of France and Germany is “that Europe remains strong”, Scholz said on Thursday on X. “Your speech contains good ideas on how we can achieve this.”
Nils Schmid, Chairman of the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly, spoke of an “important, stirring speech” – even if, after seven years in office, Macron could of course no longer develop the visionary power of his first Sorbonne speech. The French President had pushed through his idea of European sovereignty in the EU and achieved great progress together with Germany, for example with the coronavirus bonds or in European industrial policy, the SPD MEP told Table.Briefings.
With his second Sorbonne speech, Macron wants to continue on the path he has taken. He is backing more European industrial policy, including in the field of armaments, and is calling for a joint investment program.
The tenor of the speech is “very ambitious” and reflects the demands of Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi for far-reaching EU reforms, says Camille Defard, Director of the Jacques Delors Energy Center. Macron is raising the bar of the political discourse on the future of the EU by calling for a new paradigm for budgetary, monetary, trade and industrial policy to meet the new geopolitical realities.
The Élysée Palace did not want the speech a few weeks before the European elections to be interpreted as an election campaign, but rather as a “European institutional moment”. Macron wanted to present his ideas for the strategic agenda for the coming years, which the heads of state and government want to adopt at their post-election summit in mid-June. This will in turn be incorporated into the work program of the new EU Commission.
In particular, the French President calls for a “prosperity pact”. He emphasized that climate-friendly production represents an “opportunity for reindustrialization and the preservation of our industries”. We must therefore “stop playing decarbonization and growth off against each other”. Macron cited hydrogen and battery production as an example. By 2030, all the batteries required should be manufactured in Europe and European semiconductor production should be doubled.
In addition, regulation at EU level must be streamlined. This means a modernization of the internal market, an end to “systematic regulation” and a reduction in levies, especially for small companies.
Macron is also focusing on a more intensive industrial policy and a “Made in Europe” strategy. Europe must strive to become a global leader in five strategic fields of technology by 2030: AI, quantum computing, space, biotechnology and new energies. In this context, he mentions hydrogen, small modular reactors and nuclear fusion, but does not mention renewable energies.
At the same time, Macron emphasized the importance of the European defense industry for its own defense. He called for domestic manufacturers to be prioritized in the procurement of military equipment. Macron criticized the fact that three-quarters of the funds from the European Peace Facility had been used to make purchases outside of Europe. He also called for the European Investment Bank (EIB) to provide more support to the arms industry.
The President is once again calling for additional funds for the EU level. Macron emphasized that he wanted to discuss “a joint public investment shock” and the European Union’s greater financial capacity to act with its European partners. This also includes the controversial new resources for the EU. However, Macron will have to”convince Germany and the frugal countries” of his plans, says Peggy Corlin, head of the Robert Schuman Foundation’s office in Brussels.
It should put an end to “Qatargate” and many other scandals: On Thursday, the European Parliament in Strasbourg approved the establishment of an independent ethics body for the EU institutions. The new body is to set “generally applicable standards for ethical conduct” and also initiate investigations in justified individual cases.
That would be good news if it weren’t for the recent increase in reports of unethical behavior in parliament. Not only Qatar and Morocco, but also Russia and China are said to have tried to influence MEPs and spy on the Strasbourg chamber. This is suggested by findings from the Czech and Belgian secret services and investigations by the German Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office.
The scandal surrounding the AfD’s leading candidate for the European elections, Maximilian Krah, recently caused a stir. One of his assistants is alleged to have spied for China. There are also suspicions that Krah himself may have accepted money from a pro-Russian Ukrainian. Nevertheless, the German politician refuses to renounce his status as a top candidate for the European elections.
In a separate resolution, Parliament is now calling for clarification. Krah and the AfD must put all the facts on the table and “publicly declare their financial ties to the Kremlin without delay“. The MEPs also emphasized their “extreme concern” about the suspicion of espionage against Krah’s assistant Jian G. The man is now in custody and has been suspended by Parliament.
However, many EU politicians and experts believe that the case is far from over. The Krah case has revealed glaring security gaps, said Danish MEP Karen Melchior (Renew). “We do not know whether the parliamentary staff complies with all security regulations”, she explained. This shortcoming must be remedied “before the next legislature”, Melchior said.
Background: Assistants and other employees are subject to a security check before they are hired. However, in the case of Jian G., this apparently did not help any more than the rule that assistants are not allowed to carry out any activities that could lead to a conflict of interest. Krah also denies having any knowledge of G.’s suspected espionage activities.
Parliamentary deputy Jan-Christoph Oetjen (FDP) is also dissatisfied. “We cannot allow foreign powers to influence European politics”, he said on the Phoenix television channel. According to Oetjen, the European Parliament must seek clarification itself. There is not enough time for a committee of inquiry. However, it would be conceivable to appoint a special investigator.
However, this does not appear to be the case. The national authorities alone are responsible for investigations, explained parliamentary spokesperson Jaume Duch when asked by Table.Briefings. They would work closely with the German judiciary should a corresponding request be received. Moreover, Parliament has repeatedly warned against foreign interference since 2019 at the latest.
However, this is not enough, criticize the NGOs “Transparency International” (TI) and LobbyControl. “As Krah himself maintained contacts with the Chinese government, the AfD, the EU Parliament and the responsible authorities in Germany should also take a close look at his role. They must now investigate any potentially criminal conduct by Krah himself”, says Imke Dierßen, Political Director of LobbyControl.
The new ethics committee is a step forward, explained TI. However, it comes too late and does not go far enough (“too little, too late”). For example, there is no possibility of sanctioning unethical behavior by MEPs. In addition, almost half of the MEPs voted against the ethics committee. “They had to be pushed into it”, says TI expert Shari Hinds.
The EPP continues to question the new body. Sven Simon (CDU), constitutional policy spokesperson for the EPP group, emphasized that there was no legal basis. Furthermore, although the European Council was involved in defining the ethical rules, it did not want to be bound by them. “Against this background, today is a black day for the European Parliament.”
In contrast, Daniel Freund (Greens), who had promoted the ethics committee as rapporteur, speaks of a “green success”. The “culture of impunity” is coming to an end. However, similar hopes had already been associated with the transparency rules that Parliament had adopted following the Qatargate – the biggest corruption scandal to date and one that has still not been solved.
However, despite the strict rules introduced in 2023, Krah was able to build up a German-Chinese lobby network. Furthermore, the European Parliament does not yet have a supervisory body like the Bundestag, which would enable it to share and scrutinize the intelligence services’ findings. This is why MEPs are largely in the dark about the latest scandals.
The German Social Democrats are entering the EU election campaign by staging themselves as strategists and taking sideswipes at the CDU and its lead candidate. “Leyen is hiding her candidates. Germany’s strongest voices for Europe show them“, reads the text for one of the election posters, which shows a silhouette of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and a photo of SPD lead candidate Katharina Barley. The SPD presented its campaign material yesterday.
The campaign film shows Barley and Chancellor Olaf Scholz as level-headed strategists playing chess. “Keeping threats at bay” and “social policy for you” are the slogans. The leaders of the Social Democrats are able to find compromises and “at a time when so much is at stake, our country does not need populism, but well-considered decisions“, the one-minute video says. The slogans for the poster motifs are peace, justice, security and cohesion. ber
Six weeks from yesterday, Thursday, the first polling stations will open in the Netherlands. And things are slowly getting serious in the European election campaign. The last plenary week of the European Parliament in this election period is coming to an end, the leading candidates of the European parties will meet next Monday in Maastricht for the first major debate and the first election posters are going up in Germany. But what about the polls?
Looking only at the bottom line figures, not too much has changed in the weeks since the last seat projection at the end of February. The European People’s Party (EPP) stands at 173 seats in the basic scenario (-3 compared to February) and thus maintains its lead over the social democratic S&D group (132 seats/-3). In the dynamic scenario, which also takes into account possible group memberships of new member parties after the election, the gap is even slightly larger: The EPP comes to 181 seats here, the S&D to 134. Both large groups would thus roughly maintain their share of seats in the current Parliament.
Third place, on the other hand, is hotly contested. While the liberal RE group (86/+1/dynamic scenario: 89) could lose around a tenth of its seats compared to the last election, the two far-right groups EKR (81/+3/86) and ID (83/-2/99) are expected to make strong gains. The exact balance of power between them will probably only be decided after the election as a result of new group memberships. The most important question mark is the Hungarian governing party Fidesz, which would like to join the ECR but is not welcome by many of its members. Joining the ID group, which is also assumed in the dynamic scenario of this seat projection, therefore seems more plausible. However, it remains very, very unlikely that the EKR and ID could merge to form a single large right-wing parliamentary group, as the Polish former head of government Mateusz Morawiecki (PiS/EKR) recently suggested.
The Greens (51/+3/53) have improved the most compared to the last seat projection. This is also due to the fact that European election-specific polls are now available for most member states, which take into account the fact that the Greens often mobilize better than other parties in European elections. However, this factor seems to be somewhat weaker this year than in the past, as interest in the election has generally increased and therefore voter turnout among voters of other parties is also likely to increase. Overall, the Greens will probably fall back to their long-term average level after the exceptionally successful European elections in 2019.
There were few changes compared to February in the left-wing group (35/±0/39) and the non-attached parties (35/-1/39). Hungarian Péter Magyar, who led large demonstrations against the Orbán government, has caused a sensation in recent weeks. With his TISZA party, he could win three seats in the European Parliament – not at the expense of Fidesz, however, but at the expense of other opposition parties. In the base scenario of the seat projection, TISZA belongs to the “other” parties that are not yet represented in Parliament (44/+2); in the dynamic scenario, it is included in the EPP.
Overall, this already provides some very clear insights for the period after the election. Unless the polls are completely wrong (for which there is no indication), the EPP’s place as the strongest group in Parliament is unlikely to be taken away. At the same time, it is becoming clear that the center-left alliance of S&D, RE, Greens and Left will lose its narrow majority in parliament. While the four groups were able to push some important decisions through Parliament against the EPP in the last parliamentary term, this would no longer be possible. The EPP will therefore not only be the strongest group, but also the “kingmaker”, without which no plausible majorities are possible on either the left or the right.
This also strengthens the position of the incumbent Commission President and EPP lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen (CDU/EPP). Given her clear lead in the polls, she appears to be focusing on avoiding risks in the election campaign – not entirely unlike the approach taken in Germany by former Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU/EPP). Even whether von der Leyen would take part in the top candidate debates was open for a long time. She only confirmed her participation in the debate in Maastricht after strong criticism from the Greens in particular. However, another debate, which was due to take place in Florence at the end of May, has already been canceled.
The greatest danger for von der Leyen could be that there is too much polarization within her grand coalition before the election – and that too many national parties commit to not re-electing her during the election campaign. For example, the European liberals have started to target von der Leyen at an early stage; Italy’s Matteo Renzi (IV/EDP) has already announced that he will vote against her in parliament. The attacks by some EPP member parties, such as the French Républicains, are even more serious.
Overall, however, the majority of MEPs are likely to have little interest in actually preventing von der Leyen’s re-election. Without an alternative center-left majority, this would probably only lead to a blockade in Parliament. This in turn would allow the European Council to ignore the top candidate procedure, as it did in 2019, and present a surprise candidate. A more constructive way for the S&D, Liberals and Greens to deal with the situation would be to demand concessions from the EPP in return for its approval of von der Leyen. For example, in the form of a coalition agreement that lays down certain substantive guidelines for legislation in the next legislative period and establishes rules for dealing with the strengthened right-wing groups.
But first, of course, the European voters have their say. The seat projection presented here is only a snapshot of the political mood – there are still just over 40 days to go until the European elections.
As there are no pan-European election polls, the seat projection is based on aggregated national polls and election results from all member states. In the base scenario, all national parties are assigned to their current parliamentary group (or the parliamentary group of their European umbrella party); parties without a clear assignment are shown as “other”. The dynamic scenario assigns all “other” parties to a parliamentary group that they could plausibly join and also includes other possible changes to the parliamentary groups.
Further information on the data basis and methodology of the projection as well as a more detailed breakdown of the results can be found on the blog The (European) Federalist.
