Table.Briefing: Europe

Hungary demands billions + TTC finds its role + Inflation

  • Oil embargo dispute: Hungary demands billions
  • Trade and Technology Council finds its role
  • Commission: inflation slow to ease
  • EU guidance: companies to continue paying for gas in euros or dollars
  • Member states approve rules to promote energy infrastructure
  • Manuel Höferlin – digital policy with technical expertise
Dear reader,

Yesterday, France’s President Emmanuel Macron appointed former Labor Minister Élisabeth Borne as the new prime minister. This is the first time in 30 years that France has had a woman at the helm of government. Borne succeeds Prime Minister Jean Castex, who had previously resigned with his government. The move is considered a formality in France following a presidential election. We will introduce the 61-year-old in tomorrow’s edition of the Europe.Table Decision Brief.

At yesterday’s meeting of EU foreign ministers, no agreement was reached on the planned oil embargo against Russia. Hungary blocks the move and demands billions for the modernization of its energy infrastructure. In contrast, a far-reaching decision was made on the issue of arms deliveries, as Eric Bonse reports from Brussels.

There was a consensus at the second meeting of the Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in Paris. This is not a given considering that the first forum between the USA and the EU in September was overshadowed by the collapse of the French submarine deal. Vice President of the EU Commission Margrethe Vestager was almost euphoric yesterday about the results achieved regarding standards for artificial intelligence and cybersecurity. The problem of supply bottlenecks is also to be addressed, as Stephan Israel writes.

Manuel Höferlin, the FDP’s interior and digital politician, was already on the Internet in the early 1990s. But he didn’t find his way into politics until much later, at the age of 32. Today, he is a “fighter for digitization”. Read why in the Profile.

I hope you enjoy reading today’s newsletter.

Your
Lisa-Martina Klein
Image of Lisa-Martina  Klein

Feature

Oil embargo dispute: Hungary demands billions

In a video message posted on Facebook, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó spoke of investments of €15 to €18 billion that would be necessary for his country to do without Russian oil after all. A “complete modernization of Hungary’s energy infrastructure” was required, Szijjártó emphasized. It was, therefore, “legitimate” for his country to await a proposal from the EU Commission.

The Brussels authority has been negotiating with the government in Budapest for a week. Commission head Ursula von der Leyen had even met with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán herself, but no agreement was reached. The Hungarian approach was met with incomprehension by the foreign ministers. “The entire Union is being held hostage by one member state,” criticized Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis.

His Italian counterpart Luigi Di Maio called for a move away from the principle of unanimity in foreign policy. “This allows one country to block decisions by all the others,” he complained in Brussels, adding that a quick agreement was not to be expected, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said on the sidelines of the meeting. The positions are “quite strong”, so the decision still needs time.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was more optimistic. She said she was “very confident” that an agreement would be reached “in the next few days” . It is important that all countries are able to walk the path of exit together,” said the Green politician. One must not allow oneself to be divided “not even a millimeter”, but must move forward together.

No majority for gas embargo

Most recently, the fronts had hardened. Hungary threatened to veto the sixth sanctions package if the oil embargo remained unchanged. The country obtains more than 60 percent of its oil from Russia and 85 percent of its natural gas. In addition to Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria are also calling for longer transition periods to implement the ban on Russian oil imports and billions in aid to build new pipelines.

In Brussels, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on the EU not only to end the oil dispute but also to initiate an import ban on Russian gas as soon as possible. Otherwise, Europeans would pay twice , Kuleba said: for energy supplies and “for the destruction that Russian weapons are causing on Ukrainian soil”.

However, there is no majority in favor of a gas embargo. German Economic Affairs Minister Robert Habeck is optimistic that Germany will be able to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, saying that all the necessary measures have been initiated and that, if everything goes according to plan, Germany will no longer be susceptible to blackmail next year. However, Russia has already begun to cut gas supplies to the EU and Germany. This could thwart Habeck’s plans; the uncertainty is great.

Another topic at the foreign ministers’ meeting was arms deliveries to Ukraine. On Monday evening, the foreign ministers decided to increase EU funding by €500 million to a total of €2 billion. Of this, mainly heavy weapons are to be procured, Borrell stressed. When EU countries supply weapons to Ukraine, they can apply for a grant from the so-called European Peace Facility (EPF). The EU had established the fund for conflict resolution and stabilization in the spring of 2021.

It comprises up to €5.7 billion until 2027, financed by the member states through contributions outside the EU budget. The European Parliament has no control over the use of the funds, which were originally intended primarily for peace missions in Africa. Now the Peace Facility serves as a war chest.

  • Energy
  • Hungary
  • Natural gas
  • Ukraine

The Trade and Technology Council finds its role

The contrast with the first round of the Trade and Technology Council (TTC) could not have been greater. The representatives of the US and the EU demonstrated great unity after the meeting in Paris on Monday. The launch of the new forum last September was still overshadowed by the fact that Washington had negotiated a new security pact for the Indo-Pacific region with the UK and Australia behind the EU’s back in the preceding months, with a French submarine deal falling through.

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has completely changed the atmosphere and brought the transatlantic partners closer together. “We have achieved very good results,” said Margrethe Vestager, almost euphorically. Specifically, the EU Commission Vice President mentioned close cooperation when it comes to enforcing standards for artificial intelligence and cybersecurity at the international level. The Americans and Europeans want to take a stand against China in the relevant bodies.

Among the concrete results, Vestager also mentioned a pilot project for an early warning system to detect supply bottlenecks in good time in the future, as is currently the case with semiconductors. Although this will not solve the current shortage, the Vice President said, the analysis of the findings will help to avoid future supply bottlenecks. Another early warning system is also intended to ensure that there is no distortion of competition in the promotion of chips. Both the US and the EU want to use billion-euro subsidies to reduce their dependence on China. They want to inform each other about the purpose, form and amount of the planned subsidies, as long as this does not concern confidential information.

Export controls direct result of cooperation

In less than a year, the TTC has become a pillar of transatlantic cooperation, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Joe Biden wrote in a joint statement. The aim is to expand bilateral trade, dissolve existing trade barriers and avoid new ones. Together, they want to oppose trade-distorting practices and stand out against non-market countries such as China. The statement also mentions the united response to “Russia’s aggression in Ukraine”.

US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo also praised the “concrete results”. The TTC’s preliminary work had also made it possible to respond quickly to the “appalling behavior” of the leadership in Moscow. The swift export controls on Russia were a direct result of that cooperation. Together, the EU and the US have managed to cut off Russia from cutting-edge technology that the country needs for its military operations. A TTC working group had coordinated these export controls.

The Federation of German Industries (BDI) was pleased with the second meeting of the TTC: “The EU-US Trade and Technology Council is sending an urgently needed strong signal for transatlantic solidarity,” said Siegfried Russwurm, BDI President and Chairman of the Transatlantic Business Initiative (TBI). From a business perspective, it was gratifying that the Americans and Europeans were working so closely together, not least in view of the Russian attack on Ukraine, for example, in the joint sanctions policy.

Reduce dangerous dependencies

The Russian attack has once again sharpened the focus on dangerous dependencies in supply chains, the BDI president further emphasizes. The EU and the USA urgently need to reduce their dependencies on individual countries, such as rare earth magnets and solar supply chains. He also welcomes the fact that both sides want to avoid a subsidy race in semiconductor production. The planned establishment of an early warning system would have to be closely examined, and the close involvement of industry experts would be needed to obtain a realistic picture. Closer cooperation in the area of standardization is also welcomed to increase resilience to systemic competitors.

The TTC has proven to be an extremely useful platform for dialogue and information exchange since its launch in September 2021, according to Bernd Lange (SPD/S&D), Chairman of the Trade Committee in the EU Parliament. Lange particularly welcomes the progress made in addressing disruptions in the semiconductor supply chain through the joint early warning and monitoring mechanism, as well as the commitment to exchange on incentives for the sector. This will help avoid a subsidy race.

Nevertheless, the US and the EU should not return to a mercantilist approach and not try to produce everything in their own country or in an association of countries. This is not only unrealistic but also not in the interest of the EU, which is dependent on open and fair trade.

China – the great challenge

Reinhard Bütikofer (Greens/EFA) also praised the great unity and welcomed, in particular, the early warning mechanism and the joint approach to standardization. He said that progress had been made in detail, although friction could not be overlooked. It is clear that the second meeting will focus on Russian aggression, Bütikofer said, but the strategic challenge is China, and it is in dealing with this that the success of the TTC will be measured.

The EU and the US have yet to find a common response to China’s threat to the multilateral order. The US and the EU are not yet on the same path. The willingness of the US to reform the WTO is also barely visible to the naked eye. The other major challenge is the green transformation or different ideas in the US and Europe. The TTC still has a lot of work ahead of it.

  • European policy
  • Trade
  • Trade Policy

News

Commission: inflation slow to ease

The EU Commission has drastically revised its growth forecast for the European economy downward due to the war in Ukraine. The economy of the EU and the euro countries will grow by only 2.7 percent this year instead of 4 percent as previously expected, according to the authority’s spring forecast. For Germany, growth of only 1.6 percent instead of 3.6 percent is expected.

At the same time, the Commission expects the inflation rate to remain high for some time. In the euro countries, the inflation rate will almost double this year to 6.1 percent. The inflation rate is expected to peak in the second quarter at 6.9 percent and then slowly decline. With an expected annual average of 2.7 percent for 2023, it would still be above the target set by the European Central Bank.

Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said it was one of the most significant revisions to such a forecast. The continued positive growth was possible mainly because of a cushion from the recovery from the COVID pandemic last year.

Already in its winter forecast in February, even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Brussels-based agency had had to adjust its forecasts due to high energy prices and the omicron wave of the COVID pandemic, among other factors. The war in Ukraine and, above all, the continuing high prices for energy and other raw materials continued to exert pressure, the commission said. Added to this were war-related disruptions to supply chains. For the coming year, the EU Commission is forecasting 2.3 percent growth in the EU and the euro area. In its February forecast, it had predicted 2.8 percent for the EU and 2.7 percent for the euro countries in 2023.

Gas supply freeze would trigger recession

Gentiloni also justified the significantly downgraded forecast for the German economy with the effects of the COVID-related lockdown in industrial centers in China. After subdued growth at the beginning of the year, German gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract slightly in the second quarter. From July, the German economy will start to grow again, Gentiloni said. Next year, Europe’s largest economy is forecast to grow by 2.4 percent. Inflation is expected to average 6.5 percent this year and 3.1 percent next.

Gentiloni warned that the economic outlook depended mainly on the duration of the war in Ukraine. “Our forecast is subject to very high uncertainty and risks,” he said. Other scenarios are conceivable, in which growth could be lower and inflation higher.

According to the study, a Russian gas supply freeze, in particular, would have considerable consequences for the European economy. In that case, growth could be a full 2.5 percentage points lower this year and one next. Gentiloni said in the meantime, GDP could shrink. Inflation would also likely be significantly higher in the event of a supply freeze: three points higher this year and one point higher next year.

The EU Commission gave a positive assessment of the development of government budgets. The average debt ratio is expected to fall to 87 percent this year, compared with 90 percent last year. Average deficits are expected to fall from 4.7 percent to 3.6 percent of economic output.

The strict EU debt rules of the Stability and Growth Pact require EU countries to take on no more than 60 percent of economic output in debt, and budget deficits are capped at 3 percent. They are suspended until 2023 because of the COVID pandemic. Next week, the Commission plans to announce whether the rules will remain suspended for another year. dpa/tho

  • European policy
  • Finance
  • Financial policy

EU guidance: companies to continue paying for gas in euros or dollars

Even weeks after Russia’s announcement that countries classified as unfriendly, such as Germany, will have to pay for gas supplies in rubles in the future, the details are still unclear. Suppliers are holding back on concrete statements, but for some, the time for the next installment is still running out in May.

In the updated guidance handed over to countries on Friday, the EU Commission maintains its previous recommendation for companies. According to it, utilities would not violate sanctions imposed by the West if they make payments in euros and the transaction is considered completed at the moment of transfer. In this way, they bypassed settlement through the Russian Central Bank, which is subject to sanctions by the West. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decree, the central bank must exchange the euros for rubles before the transaction is considered complete.

A senior representative of an EU member state said there would probably be no further update from the Commission. The key question remains when the transaction will be completed. The EU Commission had warned companies to carry out the conversion into rubles themselves. This could be a breach of sanctions.

Nearly all of the supply contracts EU companies have with Russian gas giant Gazprom are in euros or dollars. Companies should make a “clear statement” saying that when they pay euros or dollars, they consider their obligations under existing contracts to be fulfilled, the guidance said.

It should be understood that “such payments in that currency discharge definitively the economic operator from the payment obligations under those contracts, without any further actions from their side as regards the payment,” it said. By ending its obligations once it deposits euros or dollars, a company could avoid being involved in dealing with the Russian central bank, which is under sanctions, and which could have been involved in converting the euros to rubles.

The Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment. rtr

  • Energy
  • European policy
  • Finance
  • Natural gas

Member states approve rules to promote energy infrastructure

New EU rules for the expansion of cross-border energy networks can come into force. On Monday, EU countries formally voted to reform the so-called TEN-E Regulation. It specifies which projects are to receive special support to achieve the EU’s climate targets – such as lines to offshore wind farms and infrastructure for climate-friendly hydrogen. New projects using only oil or gas may no longer receive EU support in the future.

Funding is mainly provided through so-called projects of common interest (PCIs), which can be approved more quickly and supported with EU funds. Gas or oil pipelines may not be on the list in the future. However, there are some exceptions – such as gas pipelines already planned to Malta or Cyprus, as the countries are not yet connected to the mainland gas network. These projects were still on the last PCI list presented by the EU Commission in the winter.

The TEN-E Regulation is scheduled to enter into force 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the EU. The EU has set itself the goal of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide by at least 55 percent by 2030. By 2050, the EU is to become climate neutral, i.e., either avoid or store all greenhouse gases. dpa

  • Climate Policy
  • Energy
  • European policy

Profile

Manuel Höferlin – digital policy with technical expertise

Manuel Höferlin, MdB, FDP
Manuel Höferlin is the interior and digital policy expert for the Free Democratic Party in the Bundestag.

Manuel Höferlin left his first digital traces back in 1993 in the early days of the WWW. Back then, as a law student, the now 49-year-old was hanging out in Usenet groups, where he exchanged ideas with like-minded people about technical details of the Internet. At the time, Höferlin set up one of the first legal web servers at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz, “something they didn’t think a lawyer could do,” he says.

Höferlin was fascinated by the feeling of being directly and quickly at the source of new information via the Internet. At NASA, he downloaded images back then without knowing what they would show. “Getting information quickly thanks to the Internet is something I still find incredibly exciting today.” It was then that he clearly became aware of the huge opportunities associated with digitization.

While still a student, the Rhineland native went into business for himself, founding an IT consulting company, which he managed until 2009. Working as a normal lawyer was soon out of the question for him. “Back then, I had a lot of fun digging into all the technical stuff myself,” he says.

Sprint through politics

He came to politics relatively late, as a 32-year-old in 2005. Back then, when the red-green coalition failed, he saw the moment had come to show his political colors. He joined the FDP. “I was fed up with the government and wanted to join a party that was on the side of business and stood up for civil rights – including in the digital space.” The second red-green Schröder government, with Interior Minister Otto Schily, had introduced massive surveillance legislation in the wake of the 9/11 attacks.

After a sprint through local and state politics in Rhineland-Palatinate, Höferlin was first elected to the Bundestag in 2009. Until 2013, he acted as part of a digital policy trio of deputies who pushed the issues in the FDP parliamentary group. With the failure of the FDP to clear the five-percent hurdle, he was not represented in the 18th Bundestag but moved back there in 2017. From 2019, he took over the chairmanship of the Digital Agenda Committee there after Höferlin’s longtime companion Jimmy Schulz passed away after a long battle with cancer. Höferlin, who comes from the same state association as Digital Minister Volker Wissing, had to tremble in the last Bundestag election: It was not clear for a long time on election night that the digital policy expert would actually be a member of the 20th Bundestag.

In this legislative period, he is a full member of the Interior Committee and a substitute member of the Digital Affairs Committee. There is no shortage of overlapping topics: From data sharing and administrative services in the public sector to cybersecurity and data protection, both committees are also relevant for precisely those topics that have long been on his mind. Industry representatives regret that Manuel Höferlin did not become a parliamentary state secretary in the digital ministry. But a Rhineland-Palatinate minister with Rhineland-Palatinate state secretaries, that is hardly possible in political Berlin.

Digital policy as domestic policy

Manuel Höferlin describes himself as a “fighter for digitization”. One of his heartfelt issues is a secure digital communication and a free Internet without state surveillance. “I want citizens to be able to travel in a self-determined manner in the digital world as well,” he says. He, therefore, also sees digital policy as domestic policy, and unlike the digital minister, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser does not come from his own party.

Above all, Manuel Höferlin is currently concerned about the extent to which citizens are monitored by the state in the digital space. He said that individual measures, such as data retention or source telecommunication surveillance, were being discussed again and again. But the overall picture of state surveillance on the Internet is still diffuse. “This is where we as the FDP would like to draw up a balance sheet for the first time with the overall surveillance account,” says Höferlin, “because there is currently no such thing.” The mandate to do so was written into the coalition agreement by the traffic light negotiators. Höferlin is one of those who are fundamentally skeptical about new data retention regulations at the European level.

He has not lost his technological view of political content; he still wants to think through and understand everything in detail first when he has to negotiate something politically. “This expertise has always helped me politically,” he says. As a balance to the abstract topics full of zeros and ones, Höferlin does some beekeeping in his spare time. “That grounds me,” he says. His other passion is flying: He was finally able to fulfill this old childhood dream a few years ago with his private pilot’s license. Adrian Meyer

  • Data law
  • Digital policy
  • Digitalpolitik
  • FDP

Europe.Table Editorial Office

EUROPE.TABLE EDITORS

Licenses:
    • Oil embargo dispute: Hungary demands billions
    • Trade and Technology Council finds its role
    • Commission: inflation slow to ease
    • EU guidance: companies to continue paying for gas in euros or dollars
    • Member states approve rules to promote energy infrastructure
    • Manuel Höferlin – digital policy with technical expertise
    Dear reader,

    Yesterday, France’s President Emmanuel Macron appointed former Labor Minister Élisabeth Borne as the new prime minister. This is the first time in 30 years that France has had a woman at the helm of government. Borne succeeds Prime Minister Jean Castex, who had previously resigned with his government. The move is considered a formality in France following a presidential election. We will introduce the 61-year-old in tomorrow’s edition of the Europe.Table Decision Brief.

    At yesterday’s meeting of EU foreign ministers, no agreement was reached on the planned oil embargo against Russia. Hungary blocks the move and demands billions for the modernization of its energy infrastructure. In contrast, a far-reaching decision was made on the issue of arms deliveries, as Eric Bonse reports from Brussels.

    There was a consensus at the second meeting of the Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in Paris. This is not a given considering that the first forum between the USA and the EU in September was overshadowed by the collapse of the French submarine deal. Vice President of the EU Commission Margrethe Vestager was almost euphoric yesterday about the results achieved regarding standards for artificial intelligence and cybersecurity. The problem of supply bottlenecks is also to be addressed, as Stephan Israel writes.

    Manuel Höferlin, the FDP’s interior and digital politician, was already on the Internet in the early 1990s. But he didn’t find his way into politics until much later, at the age of 32. Today, he is a “fighter for digitization”. Read why in the Profile.

    I hope you enjoy reading today’s newsletter.

    Your
    Lisa-Martina Klein
    Image of Lisa-Martina  Klein

    Feature

    Oil embargo dispute: Hungary demands billions

    In a video message posted on Facebook, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó spoke of investments of €15 to €18 billion that would be necessary for his country to do without Russian oil after all. A “complete modernization of Hungary’s energy infrastructure” was required, Szijjártó emphasized. It was, therefore, “legitimate” for his country to await a proposal from the EU Commission.

    The Brussels authority has been negotiating with the government in Budapest for a week. Commission head Ursula von der Leyen had even met with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán herself, but no agreement was reached. The Hungarian approach was met with incomprehension by the foreign ministers. “The entire Union is being held hostage by one member state,” criticized Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis.

    His Italian counterpart Luigi Di Maio called for a move away from the principle of unanimity in foreign policy. “This allows one country to block decisions by all the others,” he complained in Brussels, adding that a quick agreement was not to be expected, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said on the sidelines of the meeting. The positions are “quite strong”, so the decision still needs time.

    German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was more optimistic. She said she was “very confident” that an agreement would be reached “in the next few days” . It is important that all countries are able to walk the path of exit together,” said the Green politician. One must not allow oneself to be divided “not even a millimeter”, but must move forward together.

    No majority for gas embargo

    Most recently, the fronts had hardened. Hungary threatened to veto the sixth sanctions package if the oil embargo remained unchanged. The country obtains more than 60 percent of its oil from Russia and 85 percent of its natural gas. In addition to Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria are also calling for longer transition periods to implement the ban on Russian oil imports and billions in aid to build new pipelines.

    In Brussels, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on the EU not only to end the oil dispute but also to initiate an import ban on Russian gas as soon as possible. Otherwise, Europeans would pay twice , Kuleba said: for energy supplies and “for the destruction that Russian weapons are causing on Ukrainian soil”.

    However, there is no majority in favor of a gas embargo. German Economic Affairs Minister Robert Habeck is optimistic that Germany will be able to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, saying that all the necessary measures have been initiated and that, if everything goes according to plan, Germany will no longer be susceptible to blackmail next year. However, Russia has already begun to cut gas supplies to the EU and Germany. This could thwart Habeck’s plans; the uncertainty is great.

    Another topic at the foreign ministers’ meeting was arms deliveries to Ukraine. On Monday evening, the foreign ministers decided to increase EU funding by €500 million to a total of €2 billion. Of this, mainly heavy weapons are to be procured, Borrell stressed. When EU countries supply weapons to Ukraine, they can apply for a grant from the so-called European Peace Facility (EPF). The EU had established the fund for conflict resolution and stabilization in the spring of 2021.

    It comprises up to €5.7 billion until 2027, financed by the member states through contributions outside the EU budget. The European Parliament has no control over the use of the funds, which were originally intended primarily for peace missions in Africa. Now the Peace Facility serves as a war chest.

    • Energy
    • Hungary
    • Natural gas
    • Ukraine

    The Trade and Technology Council finds its role

    The contrast with the first round of the Trade and Technology Council (TTC) could not have been greater. The representatives of the US and the EU demonstrated great unity after the meeting in Paris on Monday. The launch of the new forum last September was still overshadowed by the fact that Washington had negotiated a new security pact for the Indo-Pacific region with the UK and Australia behind the EU’s back in the preceding months, with a French submarine deal falling through.

    Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has completely changed the atmosphere and brought the transatlantic partners closer together. “We have achieved very good results,” said Margrethe Vestager, almost euphorically. Specifically, the EU Commission Vice President mentioned close cooperation when it comes to enforcing standards for artificial intelligence and cybersecurity at the international level. The Americans and Europeans want to take a stand against China in the relevant bodies.

    Among the concrete results, Vestager also mentioned a pilot project for an early warning system to detect supply bottlenecks in good time in the future, as is currently the case with semiconductors. Although this will not solve the current shortage, the Vice President said, the analysis of the findings will help to avoid future supply bottlenecks. Another early warning system is also intended to ensure that there is no distortion of competition in the promotion of chips. Both the US and the EU want to use billion-euro subsidies to reduce their dependence on China. They want to inform each other about the purpose, form and amount of the planned subsidies, as long as this does not concern confidential information.

    Export controls direct result of cooperation

    In less than a year, the TTC has become a pillar of transatlantic cooperation, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Joe Biden wrote in a joint statement. The aim is to expand bilateral trade, dissolve existing trade barriers and avoid new ones. Together, they want to oppose trade-distorting practices and stand out against non-market countries such as China. The statement also mentions the united response to “Russia’s aggression in Ukraine”.

    US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo also praised the “concrete results”. The TTC’s preliminary work had also made it possible to respond quickly to the “appalling behavior” of the leadership in Moscow. The swift export controls on Russia were a direct result of that cooperation. Together, the EU and the US have managed to cut off Russia from cutting-edge technology that the country needs for its military operations. A TTC working group had coordinated these export controls.

    The Federation of German Industries (BDI) was pleased with the second meeting of the TTC: “The EU-US Trade and Technology Council is sending an urgently needed strong signal for transatlantic solidarity,” said Siegfried Russwurm, BDI President and Chairman of the Transatlantic Business Initiative (TBI). From a business perspective, it was gratifying that the Americans and Europeans were working so closely together, not least in view of the Russian attack on Ukraine, for example, in the joint sanctions policy.

    Reduce dangerous dependencies

    The Russian attack has once again sharpened the focus on dangerous dependencies in supply chains, the BDI president further emphasizes. The EU and the USA urgently need to reduce their dependencies on individual countries, such as rare earth magnets and solar supply chains. He also welcomes the fact that both sides want to avoid a subsidy race in semiconductor production. The planned establishment of an early warning system would have to be closely examined, and the close involvement of industry experts would be needed to obtain a realistic picture. Closer cooperation in the area of standardization is also welcomed to increase resilience to systemic competitors.

    The TTC has proven to be an extremely useful platform for dialogue and information exchange since its launch in September 2021, according to Bernd Lange (SPD/S&D), Chairman of the Trade Committee in the EU Parliament. Lange particularly welcomes the progress made in addressing disruptions in the semiconductor supply chain through the joint early warning and monitoring mechanism, as well as the commitment to exchange on incentives for the sector. This will help avoid a subsidy race.

    Nevertheless, the US and the EU should not return to a mercantilist approach and not try to produce everything in their own country or in an association of countries. This is not only unrealistic but also not in the interest of the EU, which is dependent on open and fair trade.

    China – the great challenge

    Reinhard Bütikofer (Greens/EFA) also praised the great unity and welcomed, in particular, the early warning mechanism and the joint approach to standardization. He said that progress had been made in detail, although friction could not be overlooked. It is clear that the second meeting will focus on Russian aggression, Bütikofer said, but the strategic challenge is China, and it is in dealing with this that the success of the TTC will be measured.

    The EU and the US have yet to find a common response to China’s threat to the multilateral order. The US and the EU are not yet on the same path. The willingness of the US to reform the WTO is also barely visible to the naked eye. The other major challenge is the green transformation or different ideas in the US and Europe. The TTC still has a lot of work ahead of it.

    • European policy
    • Trade
    • Trade Policy

    News

    Commission: inflation slow to ease

    The EU Commission has drastically revised its growth forecast for the European economy downward due to the war in Ukraine. The economy of the EU and the euro countries will grow by only 2.7 percent this year instead of 4 percent as previously expected, according to the authority’s spring forecast. For Germany, growth of only 1.6 percent instead of 3.6 percent is expected.

    At the same time, the Commission expects the inflation rate to remain high for some time. In the euro countries, the inflation rate will almost double this year to 6.1 percent. The inflation rate is expected to peak in the second quarter at 6.9 percent and then slowly decline. With an expected annual average of 2.7 percent for 2023, it would still be above the target set by the European Central Bank.

    Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said it was one of the most significant revisions to such a forecast. The continued positive growth was possible mainly because of a cushion from the recovery from the COVID pandemic last year.

    Already in its winter forecast in February, even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Brussels-based agency had had to adjust its forecasts due to high energy prices and the omicron wave of the COVID pandemic, among other factors. The war in Ukraine and, above all, the continuing high prices for energy and other raw materials continued to exert pressure, the commission said. Added to this were war-related disruptions to supply chains. For the coming year, the EU Commission is forecasting 2.3 percent growth in the EU and the euro area. In its February forecast, it had predicted 2.8 percent for the EU and 2.7 percent for the euro countries in 2023.

    Gas supply freeze would trigger recession

    Gentiloni also justified the significantly downgraded forecast for the German economy with the effects of the COVID-related lockdown in industrial centers in China. After subdued growth at the beginning of the year, German gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract slightly in the second quarter. From July, the German economy will start to grow again, Gentiloni said. Next year, Europe’s largest economy is forecast to grow by 2.4 percent. Inflation is expected to average 6.5 percent this year and 3.1 percent next.

    Gentiloni warned that the economic outlook depended mainly on the duration of the war in Ukraine. “Our forecast is subject to very high uncertainty and risks,” he said. Other scenarios are conceivable, in which growth could be lower and inflation higher.

    According to the study, a Russian gas supply freeze, in particular, would have considerable consequences for the European economy. In that case, growth could be a full 2.5 percentage points lower this year and one next. Gentiloni said in the meantime, GDP could shrink. Inflation would also likely be significantly higher in the event of a supply freeze: three points higher this year and one point higher next year.

    The EU Commission gave a positive assessment of the development of government budgets. The average debt ratio is expected to fall to 87 percent this year, compared with 90 percent last year. Average deficits are expected to fall from 4.7 percent to 3.6 percent of economic output.

    The strict EU debt rules of the Stability and Growth Pact require EU countries to take on no more than 60 percent of economic output in debt, and budget deficits are capped at 3 percent. They are suspended until 2023 because of the COVID pandemic. Next week, the Commission plans to announce whether the rules will remain suspended for another year. dpa/tho

    • European policy
    • Finance
    • Financial policy

    EU guidance: companies to continue paying for gas in euros or dollars

    Even weeks after Russia’s announcement that countries classified as unfriendly, such as Germany, will have to pay for gas supplies in rubles in the future, the details are still unclear. Suppliers are holding back on concrete statements, but for some, the time for the next installment is still running out in May.

    In the updated guidance handed over to countries on Friday, the EU Commission maintains its previous recommendation for companies. According to it, utilities would not violate sanctions imposed by the West if they make payments in euros and the transaction is considered completed at the moment of transfer. In this way, they bypassed settlement through the Russian Central Bank, which is subject to sanctions by the West. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decree, the central bank must exchange the euros for rubles before the transaction is considered complete.

    A senior representative of an EU member state said there would probably be no further update from the Commission. The key question remains when the transaction will be completed. The EU Commission had warned companies to carry out the conversion into rubles themselves. This could be a breach of sanctions.

    Nearly all of the supply contracts EU companies have with Russian gas giant Gazprom are in euros or dollars. Companies should make a “clear statement” saying that when they pay euros or dollars, they consider their obligations under existing contracts to be fulfilled, the guidance said.

    It should be understood that “such payments in that currency discharge definitively the economic operator from the payment obligations under those contracts, without any further actions from their side as regards the payment,” it said. By ending its obligations once it deposits euros or dollars, a company could avoid being involved in dealing with the Russian central bank, which is under sanctions, and which could have been involved in converting the euros to rubles.

    The Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment. rtr

    • Energy
    • European policy
    • Finance
    • Natural gas

    Member states approve rules to promote energy infrastructure

    New EU rules for the expansion of cross-border energy networks can come into force. On Monday, EU countries formally voted to reform the so-called TEN-E Regulation. It specifies which projects are to receive special support to achieve the EU’s climate targets – such as lines to offshore wind farms and infrastructure for climate-friendly hydrogen. New projects using only oil or gas may no longer receive EU support in the future.

    Funding is mainly provided through so-called projects of common interest (PCIs), which can be approved more quickly and supported with EU funds. Gas or oil pipelines may not be on the list in the future. However, there are some exceptions – such as gas pipelines already planned to Malta or Cyprus, as the countries are not yet connected to the mainland gas network. These projects were still on the last PCI list presented by the EU Commission in the winter.

    The TEN-E Regulation is scheduled to enter into force 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the EU. The EU has set itself the goal of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide by at least 55 percent by 2030. By 2050, the EU is to become climate neutral, i.e., either avoid or store all greenhouse gases. dpa

    • Climate Policy
    • Energy
    • European policy

    Profile

    Manuel Höferlin – digital policy with technical expertise

    Manuel Höferlin, MdB, FDP
    Manuel Höferlin is the interior and digital policy expert for the Free Democratic Party in the Bundestag.

    Manuel Höferlin left his first digital traces back in 1993 in the early days of the WWW. Back then, as a law student, the now 49-year-old was hanging out in Usenet groups, where he exchanged ideas with like-minded people about technical details of the Internet. At the time, Höferlin set up one of the first legal web servers at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz, “something they didn’t think a lawyer could do,” he says.

    Höferlin was fascinated by the feeling of being directly and quickly at the source of new information via the Internet. At NASA, he downloaded images back then without knowing what they would show. “Getting information quickly thanks to the Internet is something I still find incredibly exciting today.” It was then that he clearly became aware of the huge opportunities associated with digitization.

    While still a student, the Rhineland native went into business for himself, founding an IT consulting company, which he managed until 2009. Working as a normal lawyer was soon out of the question for him. “Back then, I had a lot of fun digging into all the technical stuff myself,” he says.

    Sprint through politics

    He came to politics relatively late, as a 32-year-old in 2005. Back then, when the red-green coalition failed, he saw the moment had come to show his political colors. He joined the FDP. “I was fed up with the government and wanted to join a party that was on the side of business and stood up for civil rights – including in the digital space.” The second red-green Schröder government, with Interior Minister Otto Schily, had introduced massive surveillance legislation in the wake of the 9/11 attacks.

    After a sprint through local and state politics in Rhineland-Palatinate, Höferlin was first elected to the Bundestag in 2009. Until 2013, he acted as part of a digital policy trio of deputies who pushed the issues in the FDP parliamentary group. With the failure of the FDP to clear the five-percent hurdle, he was not represented in the 18th Bundestag but moved back there in 2017. From 2019, he took over the chairmanship of the Digital Agenda Committee there after Höferlin’s longtime companion Jimmy Schulz passed away after a long battle with cancer. Höferlin, who comes from the same state association as Digital Minister Volker Wissing, had to tremble in the last Bundestag election: It was not clear for a long time on election night that the digital policy expert would actually be a member of the 20th Bundestag.

    In this legislative period, he is a full member of the Interior Committee and a substitute member of the Digital Affairs Committee. There is no shortage of overlapping topics: From data sharing and administrative services in the public sector to cybersecurity and data protection, both committees are also relevant for precisely those topics that have long been on his mind. Industry representatives regret that Manuel Höferlin did not become a parliamentary state secretary in the digital ministry. But a Rhineland-Palatinate minister with Rhineland-Palatinate state secretaries, that is hardly possible in political Berlin.

    Digital policy as domestic policy

    Manuel Höferlin describes himself as a “fighter for digitization”. One of his heartfelt issues is a secure digital communication and a free Internet without state surveillance. “I want citizens to be able to travel in a self-determined manner in the digital world as well,” he says. He, therefore, also sees digital policy as domestic policy, and unlike the digital minister, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser does not come from his own party.

    Above all, Manuel Höferlin is currently concerned about the extent to which citizens are monitored by the state in the digital space. He said that individual measures, such as data retention or source telecommunication surveillance, were being discussed again and again. But the overall picture of state surveillance on the Internet is still diffuse. “This is where we as the FDP would like to draw up a balance sheet for the first time with the overall surveillance account,” says Höferlin, “because there is currently no such thing.” The mandate to do so was written into the coalition agreement by the traffic light negotiators. Höferlin is one of those who are fundamentally skeptical about new data retention regulations at the European level.

    He has not lost his technological view of political content; he still wants to think through and understand everything in detail first when he has to negotiate something politically. “This expertise has always helped me politically,” he says. As a balance to the abstract topics full of zeros and ones, Höferlin does some beekeeping in his spare time. “That grounds me,” he says. His other passion is flying: He was finally able to fulfill this old childhood dream a few years ago with his private pilot’s license. Adrian Meyer

    • Data law
    • Digital policy
    • Digitalpolitik
    • FDP

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