Table.Briefing: Europe

Green free trade with USA + China hinders Western solar expansion + Compromise on Data Act

  • EU-USA: Green free trade to defuse IRA dispute
  • China hinders solar expansion in the West
  • Data Act: clear majority for compromise expected
  • EU creates new center against disinformation
  • Clean Tech: Berlin to cut EU bureaucracy
  • Zelenskiy visit not yet official
  • Discussions on EU ban on PFAS chemicals
  • Thousands protest against planned pension reform in France
  • Heads: Florian Rothenberg – emissions trading expert
Dear reader,

For US President Joe Biden, the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in the summer of 2022 was an unexpected success. In Europe, on the other hand, some IRA regulations are viewed with concern. Germany’s Minister for Economic Affairs Habeck and France’s Economy Minister Le Maire are now working on ways out of the dispute with their US counterparts. They are offering closer cooperation on green tech and supply chains. In this way, a “green bridge across the Atlantic” is to be built. Bernhard Pötter reports from Washington.

Beijing is reacting to the US subsidy program in its own way – at least that is how an upcoming decision likely to have far-reaching consequences for the solar industry can be interpreted: China wants to impose an export ban on key solar manufacturing technologies. If the ban is implemented, it will hurt the Western industry, analyzes Nico Beckert. The People’s Republic is a global leader in both the manufacture of solar precursors and production equipment. According to experts, it is “almost impossible” to build a solar industry in Western countries without Chinese equipment.

The Parliament is making speed: Tomorrow, the MEPs in the lead Industry Committee will vote on the compromise on the Data Act. Observers expect a clear majority, as the major groups support the proposal by rapporteur Pilar del Castillo Vera (EPP) – albeit in part reluctantly, as in the case of shadow rapporteur Damian Boeselager (Greens/EFA). The industry, on the other hand, criticizes the compromise clearly. They say one of the main design flaws of the Data Act is that it does not make an appropriate distinction between B2C and B2B business relationships. Corinna Visser has the details.

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Sarah Schaefer
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Feature

EU-USA: Green free trade to defuse IRA dispute

The EU and the US want to cooperate more closely on the exchange of green goods. “We discuss whether common markets can be created through common standards and standard setting in green industries,” said Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck at the end of his visit to Washington on Tuesday. This is supposed to be achieved by the already existing expert group between the US and the EU, the Trade Technology Council (TTC).

He said the talks were not about a comprehensive free trade agreement but about practical agreements: For example, products approved in the US market could automatically be approved in Europe and vice versa, Habeck said. This way, a “green bridge across the Atlantic” will be built.

The move shows how the US and the EU intend to move carefully toward each other in the dispute over subsidies for green US products. On Tuesday, Habeck came to Washington with French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire to register European interests and sound out room for maneuver with the US government. In “close consultation with the EU Commission,” which is leading the negotiations, as was repeatedly emphasized.

‘Close coordination with Paris and Brussels’

Both ministers completed a day of talks in Washington: Habeck visited Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo and Trade Representative Katherine Tai, and US President Biden’s IRA advisor John Podesta.

Habeck praised the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) repeatedly, through which the US Congress cleared the way last summer for massive investments, including in green technologies: Some 370 billion dollars will be spent over ten years on renewable energies, green hydrogen, clean mobility, battery production and carbon storage (CCS), among other things. The package is intended to help reduce carbon emissions in the USA by one billion metric tons a year by 2030. According to a comprehensive study, it thus achieves two-thirds of the reduction needed to bring the US to net-zero emissions by 2050 as agreed.

Pro industry and climate action – anti populism and China

The IRA is particularly important in the US because:

  • It is intended to revitalize the industrial base.
  • It is intended to give disconnected regions like the “Rust Belt” a chance for economic recovery and less political populism in the wake of the Trump years.
  • It is intended to reduce strategic dependence on China, especially for green tech supply chains.
  • The Biden administration wants to use the IRA to link investments in future technologies with the fight against climate change.

For US President Joe Biden, the passage of the IRA in the summer of 2022 was a great and surprising success. The subsidy package was also a key topic of his address to the nation Tuesday night.

“We have been pushing the US to get serious about climate protection for a long time, and the IRA is a great thing,” Habeck said. Le Maire also stressed that a strong European industry cooperates best with a strong American industry. According to Habeck, European industries such as plant engineering would also benefit greatly from the IRA and the demand for products.

EU calls for transparency, exceptions, commodity club

However, Le Maire also stressed the need for fairness in mutual dealings. This statement refers to provisions in the IRA, according to which about 60 percent of all tax incentives include a “local content” clause. This means products must be made in whole or in part in the US or originate in Canada or Mexico, with which the US has free trade agreements. The EU announced that it would also streamline its state aid rules in response to the IRA.

Europe pushes for changes in the IRA, particularly in the following areas:

  • An exemption from local content rules for EU electric lease cars, which the law already provides, is under pressure in the US. It must be kept, the Europeans demand.
  • A “Critical Minerals Club” is intended to secure and coordinate supply chains, especially for battery production, so that access to critical materials is maintained and, at the same time, dependence on China in this area is reduced. The USA has promised talks on this.
  • France, in particular, is insisting on more transparency: States should disclose which products receive which subsidies. Le Maire also proposed a “hotline” between governments when “strategic investments” are concerned. The US government also agreed to these two demands, Le Maire and Habeck said after their meetings.
  • Individual extremely high subsidies for US suppliers of green hydrogen bother the Europeans, as do higher subsidies for local content in renewable energy projects.

Habeck and Le Maire emphasized that they did not expect the IRA to be changed again as a legislative package. They said it was now about progress in implementing provisions.

Green US supply chains dependent on foreign countries

A new study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) shows the importance of supply chains for green growth in the USA. According to the study, 76 percent of critical raw materials so far come from countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the US. In the case of critical green techs such as photovoltaics, wind turbines or lithium batteries, more than half of the raw materials come from non-free trade countries.

“With the Inflation Reduction Act, the US primarily wants to support its domestic economy, make it more resilient to supply bottlenecks, and position itself as a technology leader. But their strong dependence on raw materials and technology could mean they continue to rely on countries without free trade agreements,” explains study author Josefin Meyer.

  • Climate & Environment
  • Climate Policy
  • Economy
  • Green free trade

China hinders Western solar expansion

It is a minor announcement that could have a major impact: China wants to place an export ban on important technologies for the production of solar systems. A final decision on this is still pending. A public consultation was open until the end of January. But all China experts consulted are certain that the export restrictions will come. Once a consultation period is over, China rarely reverses major changes to regulations, says Rebecca Arcesati, an analyst at the German China think tank Merics.

If the plan goes through, the export of solar production technologies will only be possible with the approval of the authorities. “It will not be easy to obtain such permits,” says trade expert Wan-Hsin Liu of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The application is said to be a complicated process.

First, a request has to be submitted, which is then reviewed based on, for example, security and industrial policy aspects. “Only then are companies allowed to negotiate the deals with potential buyers,” Liu says. If buyer and seller agree on the deal, a second export license must be applied for “with further documents”.

China hits the West at a critical weak point

The export restrictions will “definitely” slow down the development of own production capacities in western countries, says Johannes Bernreuter, an expert on solar supply chains. The know-how still exists, even outside China. But “the production capacities are tiny and not price-competitive”.

Chinese production plants are much cheaper than Western ones – partly due to years of government subsidies for the sector, says the expert, who runs his own consulting agency. Due to the lack of price competitiveness, Western manufacturers of production equipment have withdrawn from the market. The Chinese export ban will therefore hit the Western industry at a critical weak point, Bernreuter says.

The export restrictions would affect:

  • Production technologies for large solar wafers,
  • Production technologies for the wafer precursor, the so-called ingots – blocks of semiconductor material from which the wafers are sawn.
  • Production technologies for so-called black silicon. These are processed silicon that has a better absorption capacity.
  • As well as other, not further listed solar production technologies

Developing a solar industry ‘almost impossible’ without China’s equipment

The People’s Republic is the global leader in the production of these solar precursors. 97 percent of the solar wafers and ingots produced worldwide come from China.

In solar production equipment, too, China is the global market leader. Developing a solar industry in the West without using Chinese equipment is “almost impossible”, write the analysts of the think tank Bloomberg NEF. The barriers to entry for the production of wafers and ingots are very high, they say. “The bleeding-edge knowledge” of photovoltaic manufacturing is in China, say the BNEF analysts.

These export restrictions do not come at a surprising juncture. The USA recently earmarked billions in subsidies for the development of green industries under the Inflation Reduction Act. The EU also wants to catch up in green technologies. And India is taking big steps to build up its own solar industry.

Economic and geopolitical motivation

So China sees its dominance in the sector threatened. The solar sector is an important economic sector:

  • In 2021, the People’s Republic exported solar goods worth over 30 billion US dollars overseas.
  • In the first ten months of 2022, the sum was as high as 40 billion US dollars.
  • Between 2017 and 2021, the sector contributed 6.2 percent to the country’s gigantic foreign trade surplus.

Similar approach for rare earths

Restricting solar manufacturing tech exports is also politically motivated. “Beijing wants to keep Western countries dependent on China whenever possible and shore up dominance over the tech supply chains it controls,” says Merics analyst Arcesati. The country has built its export control system in recent years “to defend its security, economic, technological and industrial interests”. Accordingly, China’s decision should also be understood as a response to the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU’s efforts to build its own green supply chains, the analyst says.

The explosive nature of the decision is also evident from the other goods that China has already placed on its “export restriction list” in the past. The list was first published in 2008. Technologies for the extraction and processing of rare earths were placed on the list early on, meaning that exports of these technologies are prohibited. China is also the world leader in mining and export of rare earths and had in the meantime almost established a monopoly position.

Could China’s plan backfire?

Beijing used its dominance in rare earths in a territorial dispute against Japan in 2010. It imposed an export ban and put massive pressure on Japan. China has built up its export control system in recent years “to defend its security, economic, technological and industrial interests,” says Arcesati of Merics.

However, it is uncertain whether China will not in fact hurt itself in the long run with these export restrictions. “Threats of controlling solar tech will make others increase efforts to diversify,” speculates energy expert Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air on Twitter. A similar case was observed with the Chinese rare-earth embargo against Japan. The neighboring country stepped up its efforts to diversify its supply sources.

  • Energy
  • Inflation Reduction Act
  • Solar
  • Technology
  • Trade
  • USA

Data Act: clear majority for compromise expected

Unlike with the AI Act, this time, it is the Parliament that is setting the pace. The Council is still far from a general direction on the Data Act. However, this Thursday, MEPs in the lead industry committee (ITRE) are already voting on a compromise. The paper is available to Table.Media.

Observers expect the proposal to find a clear majority as the major political groups EPP, S&D, Renew, Greens/EFA, and ECR support the compromise of rapporteur Pilar del Castillo Vera (EPP). Opposition comes from the industry, which warns of negative consequences for the competitiveness of European companies. The other committees involved have already issued their opinions. The plenary vote is scheduled for March 13.

Protection against unfair contract practices for everyone

The Parliament made several changes to the dossier proposed by Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton in February 2022. Among them:

  • Not only SMEs: All companies receive protection against unfair contract terms.
  • Definition and scope: Derived data, such as data generated by networked products by means of proprietary, complex algorithms, does not fall within the scope.
  • Data holder: a manufacturer is not automatically the sole data holder for the product’s lifetime.
  • Data access by public bodies: free of charge in case of a public emergency, for a “reasonable remuneration” in case of legally required tasks in the public interest.
  • Data sharing: “non-discriminatory and reasonable” compensation in the exchange of data between companies (B2B) and free access for consumers (B2C).

Greens support the compromise

Shadow rapporteur Damian Boeselager (Greens/EFA) is not satisfied, for example, when it comes to the definition of data. This is because manufacturers would be offered countless opportunities to restrict the data access rights of users, i.e. the owners of networked devices.

These include trade secrets, security-related data, and data collected based on complex proprietary algorithms and anti-competition clauses. All restrictions made data sharing more legally uncertain. And they mean that the data economy is not sufficiently developed, says Boeselager. Overall, however, he and his group support the compromise.

Renew sees good basis for data economy

It is “a good start for a data sharing economy,” even if it still falls short of its possibilities, comments Nicola Beer (Renew), Vice President of the European Parliament, on the compromise. Her group colleague, shadow rapporteur Alin Mituța, even sees the Data Act as a core instrument. The compromise “creates the conditions for European companies, including SMEs, to have more access to data and innovation.”

Mituța finds that the Parliament achieved clarity on many provisions, including definitions and scope. “It is a balanced approach because it introduces safeguards to protect our companies’ intellectual property rights while ensuring that companies do not strategically use the trade secrets exception to circumvent their data sharing obligations.”

Niebler emphasizes importance of reviews

Angelika Niebler (CSU) sees the main challenge with the Data Act as finding a balance between the different interests of data users and data owners. It was also important to better delineate which product data have to be shared – and which do not, such as data from prototypes. “It is also true that the Commission must now evaluate in its review whether it is economically attractive to collect high-quality and innovative data sets”, says Niebler.

When it comes to the protection of trade secrets, Niebler would have liked to see more legal certainty for companies. She said it is clear that trade secret owners can suspend the sharing of such data in the event of a breach of the protective measures. “However, it would be better if the trade secret owner could also refuse to share such data in advance if these measures are not complied with,” Niebler says. “This is where improvements need to be made down the road.”

Industry not convinced

European and German industries also see a need for improvement. “The specific requirements of the Data Act pose considerable risks for the digitization of industry and Europe as an industrial location,” criticizes the German Engineering Federation (VDMA). It calls on the EU Parliament not to intervene in business relationships without good reason and to provide scope in the Data Act that is absolutely necessary for data exchange between companies.

A central design flaw of the Data Act would be that it does not distinguish appropriately between B2C and B2B business relationships. But this fundamental distinction is elementary, it said, because no consumer needs to be protected in B2B relationships. The VDMA finds that “there are companies facing each other that can freely arrange the exchange of data in a way that is satisfactory for both sides.”

The German Confederation of Skilled Crafts (ZDH) for its part is calling on members of the parliament to focus on the users of the products. “For their work, skilled crafts businesses depend on fair access to data generated from heating systems, smart homes, and vehicles,” says ZDH Secretary General Holger Schwannecke. The association fears a catalog of obligations difficult for craft businesses to keep track of. The result would be that data use and processing would become too risky for the companies.

Difficult trilogue negotiations

Nicola Beer expects the trilogue negotiations to be difficult. “There are also many national interests at play here,” she explains. “We thus have to make sure we don’t lose sight of the goal: It’s about a data-sharing economy that should promote innovation through improved access to raw data.” This, she says, helps SMEs and startups, in particular, to thrive. “In the trilogue, it will be important to follow through with the SME perspective and not buckle before the interests of the national champions.”

  • Data Act
  • Data protection
  • Digital policy
  • Digitalpolitik
  • Digitization
  • Thierry Breton
  • trilogue

News

EU creates new center against disinformation

The EU wants to counter Chinese and Russian disinformation campaigns more effectively with a new platform. A newly created “Information Sharing and Analysis Centre” within the Diplomatic Service of the European Union (EEAS) will track disinformation from outside the EU and also coordinate with the 27 member states and civil society actors, EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell announced on Tuesday at an event on countering disinformation in Brussels. “Authoritarian regimes try to create misinformation and manipulate it,” Borrell warned.

The idea is to create a decentralized platform for sharing information in real-time with countries, cybersecurity authorities, and NGOs. In this way, already existing disinformation campaigns should be better investigated and understood. It should also be able to respond more quickly to emerging narratives. Further details on the size and staffing of the center were not initially disclosed. Beyond the platform, Borrell also announced plans to add disinformation experts to EU delegations abroad.

China also active in the Western Balkans

Over the past year, the People’s Republic has mostly engaged in information manipulation in connection with the Ukraine war, according to a first report on the issue by the EU’s existing disinformation unit, the Stratcom department of the EEAS. The circulated narratives had mainly focused on supporting the Russian invasion, it said. “A majority of Ukraine-related reports in international channels of Chinese state-controlled media have been based on official Russian sources,” the Stratcom report explains.

For the report, the Stratcom unit studied around 100 cases of information manipulation in greater detail. The report shows that the disinformation is predominantly image- and video-based, multilingual, and spread via a dense network of actors. On Twitter, the channels of diplomatic representatives from China and Russia are particularly involved.

Apart from the war narrative, China is also very focused on its own reputation. “China’s parallel aim is to suppress competing, and potentially critical stories about itself, also by using intimidation and harassment”, the report says. For example, it would attempt to influence reports on human rights issues. China is also particularly active in the Western Balkans. ari

  • Cybersecurity
  • European policy

Clean Tech: Berlin to cut EU bureaucracy

The German government has launched a European initiative to cut bureaucracy in certain technology sectors. There are “plenty” of regulations in European law unnecessarily holding up the expansion of photovoltaics, for example, said State Secretary at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs Sven Giegold (Greens) at the informal Competitiveness Council in Stockholm on Tuesday.

As an example, Giegold cited the limitation of the currently very popular balcony solar systems to 800 watts of inverter power, which is justified by EU standards. He also questioned the EU’s obligation to provide instructions for use printed on paper in various languages for numerous devices. The Ministry of Economics is currently compiling further examples.

The initiative to reduce bureaucracy is intended to strengthen Europe as a production location for technologies such as wind power, solar energy, heat pumps, and semiconductors. In the fall, German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck already initiated the Clean Tech Europe platform, which serves the same goal. Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton announced at Tuesday’s meeting that he would also take up the new initiative.

Response to Inflation Reduction Act

The EU is currently discussing ways to remain competitive in these future markets due to massive subsidies in the USA, China, or India. Last week, the EU Commission proposed a package of measures that would also give member states more leeway to subsidize new production facilities.

France and Germany, in particular, are pushing for changes to the state aid law – procedures would be too bureaucratic and slow. However, several member states warn against relying too heavily on subsidies in view of their limited financial leeway. Berlin is meeting the critics halfway with its initiative to cut bureaucracy.

The heads of state and government also want to discuss the matter at the special summit on Thursday. The current draft of the conclusions states, for example, that “administrative and approval procedures should be simplified and accelerated.” tho

  • Aid
  • bureaucracy
  • Clean tech
  • Energy
  • Inflation Reduction Act
  • Solar

Zelenskiy’s Brussels visit not yet official

There is no official confirmation of Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s visit to Brussels on Thursday. Confirmed is only that Council President Charles Michel invited the Ukrainian President to attend a European Council. That he will come to the summit, where Russia, Ukraine, and migration are on the agenda, as early as Thursday and Friday, is not confirmed.

There was also talk of Zelenskiy speaking at a special session at 10 a.m. in the European Parliament. No regular session was scheduled for Thursday. Yesterday evening, the Bureau decided to invite MEPs for a meeting on Thursday between ten and eleven o’clock.

Travel is risky

Monday afternoon, a tweet by the EPP parliamentary group announced Zelenskiy’s appearance in Parliament. The tweet was quickly withdrawn. Apparently, the group’s social media team had rushed to spread the news, disregarding the risks.

Any trip is a high risk for the politician whose country has been the target of Russia’s war of aggression for almost a year. According to reports, Parliament Speaker Roberta Metsola had informed the parliamentary groups about the possible visit on Monday afternoon. Since the outbreak of the war, Zelenskiy made only one foreign trip to the United States. Back then, there were attempts to keep his visit to the USA secret as long as possible. mgr

  • Brussels
  • Charles Michel
  • European Council
  • European Parliament
  • Ukraine
  • Volodymyr Zelenskiy

Discussions on EU ban on PFAS chemicals

On Tuesday, the European Union began talks on a possible ban on the widely used synthesized industrial chemical group PFAS. Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway had proposed banning per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS), which are suspected carcinogens and could cause immune deficiencies.

The countries said in a joint statement that this is one of the largest bans on chemical substances in Europe. “A ban on PFAS would reduce PFAS levels in the environment in the long term. It would also make products and processes safer for humans.”

However, it is expected to take years for such a ban to take effect. Within the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA), two scientific committees, for Risk Assessment (RAC) and Socio-Economic Analysis (SEAC), will consider whether a PFAS ban is compatible with the EU Regulation on Chemicals (REACH). There will then be scientific evaluation and consultation with the industry. ECHA commented that the two committees could take longer than the usual 12 months to complete their assessment. Subsequently, the Commission and EU member states will make a decision.

Possibly no alternatives

According to the draft proposal, companies would be given between 18 months and 12 years to introduce alternative substances, depending on availability. “In many cases, no such alternatives exist at the moment, and in some, they may never exist,” the countries said. They said companies thus need to start searching for substitutes now.

PFAS are suspected of being harmful to health. According to the report, they could cause liver damage, thyroid disorders, obesity, fertility problems, and cancer, among other things. The substances are extremely long-lived and are also known as “forever chemicals.” They withstand extreme temperatures and corrosion and are used in tens of thousands of products, including coolants, aircraft, cars, textiles, medical equipment, and wind turbines. rtr

  • Chemicals
  • European policy
  • forever chemicals
  • Health

Thousands protest against planned pension reform in France

Once again, thousands have taken to the streets in numerous French cities in protest against the planned pension reform. There were rallies on Tuesday, for example, in Bordeaux, Rennes, Montpellier, and Toulouse. At the same time, there were also strikes again such as on the railroads, in schools, and in the energy sector.

France’s centrist government under Head of State Emmanuel Macron wants to raise the retirement age gradually from 62 to 64. It wants to accelerate the increase in the period needed to pay into a full pension. In addition, individual pension systems with privileges for certain occupational groups are to be abolished.

Majority not yet in place

Currently, the retirement age is 62. However, retirement actually begins later on average: those who have not paid into the pension scheme long enough to be entitled to a full pension work longer. At 67, regardless of the length of the pension deposit, they will receive a pension without deductions – and the government wants to keep it that way. It plans to raise the minimum pension to about €1,200.

According to the government, the reform is necessary because the pension system is heading for a deficit. The unions find the reform plans unfairly. According to the Interior Ministry, more than 1.27 million people demonstrated last week. The CGT union said some 2.8 million took part in strikes and protests.

Meanwhile, the plan has arrived at the plenum of the National Assembly for consideration. The deliberation is expected to last until the end of next week. The government does not have its own majority in the parliamentary chamber and is hoping for approval from the conservative Républicains. However, there are reservations there as well. A majority is not yet in place. dpa

  • Emmanuel Macron
  • France
  • pension reform

Heads

Florian Rothenberg – emissions trading expert

Florian Rothenberg is an emissions trading analyst at ICIS.

During the phone call, Florian Rothenberg is wrapped in a wool blanket. The energy crisis does not only concern him in his profession – he is an emissions trading analyst at the information service Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS) in Karlsruhe. The high energy prices are also an issue for him in his private life: Because he wants to win the energy-saving challenge of the Karlsruhe municipal utility company and reduce his consumption by at least 20 percent, he hardly heats at all and showers cold. And he wears warm clothes while working in his home office.

In his job, Rothenberg is currently focusing on how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will affect European emissions trading and the energy markets.

At the beginning of the crisis, many market participants, including Rothenberg’s clients, had feared that politicians would drop emissions trading – the prices for energy and pollution rights had simply risen too high. “But trust is very important in the market,” says Rothenberg. After all, if an industrial company buys certificates for the next ten years, it needs to be able to rely on the fact that the emissions trading system will still exist.

Emissions trading ‘got off lightly’

In the end, there was a compromise: frontloading. Companies can buy more certificates in the short term but fewer in the future. As a result, emissions trading has not become collateral damage of the energy crisis, says the expert. “Compared to other markets such as the electricity or gas market, it got off lightly.”

Rothenberg, 28, has been working at ICIS for six years, and “it doesn’t get boring.” He studied industrial engineering in Karlsruhe, Germany, where it is normal to hear about ICIS at some point. “Emissions trading remains a niche, which is why not all students are familiar with ICIS,” Rothenberg says. “But anyone who studies energy economics stumbles across us.”

The analyst’s central topics are energy markets and decarbonization. Rothenberg is also constantly learning about trends that could affect the markets. He finds that exciting: “The carbon issue is everywhere. I need to understand very quickly where energy is needed and consumed – and how that affects emissions trading.”

For this, he collects data on the demand and supply of pollution allowances, among other things. He studies how prices are formed and why they fall or rise. He records his analyses in mathematical models and discusses the results with colleagues and then with his clients.

Restructuring the economy takes time

The EU’s Green Deal is currently an important issue for him. “The big question is at what carbon price Europe can achieve Net-Zero,” says Florian Rothenberg. This is not about a specific amount of money, but a price path. Because that is one of the most important decision-making factors for industrial companies to invest in climate protection.

Climate researchers criticize that the EU’s targets do not go far enough. “That is probably true, but more ambitious targets should have been initiated five to ten years ago,” says Rothenberg. “For the economy to cut EU emissions by 55 percent by 2030 is a huge step because it takes an incredibly long time to transform.”

His own carbon footprint, Rothenberg admits, is “probably significantly worse than the world average.” That’s because he likes to travel and flies by plane. At least he takes the train to save on emissions when he travels on business. “I believe everyone can and should do a small part to combat climate change.” Patricia Hoffhaus

  • Emissions
  • Energy
  • Energy crisis
  • Green Deal

Europe.Table Editorial Office

EUROPE.TABLE EDITORS

Licenses:
    • EU-USA: Green free trade to defuse IRA dispute
    • China hinders solar expansion in the West
    • Data Act: clear majority for compromise expected
    • EU creates new center against disinformation
    • Clean Tech: Berlin to cut EU bureaucracy
    • Zelenskiy visit not yet official
    • Discussions on EU ban on PFAS chemicals
    • Thousands protest against planned pension reform in France
    • Heads: Florian Rothenberg – emissions trading expert
    Dear reader,

    For US President Joe Biden, the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in the summer of 2022 was an unexpected success. In Europe, on the other hand, some IRA regulations are viewed with concern. Germany’s Minister for Economic Affairs Habeck and France’s Economy Minister Le Maire are now working on ways out of the dispute with their US counterparts. They are offering closer cooperation on green tech and supply chains. In this way, a “green bridge across the Atlantic” is to be built. Bernhard Pötter reports from Washington.

    Beijing is reacting to the US subsidy program in its own way – at least that is how an upcoming decision likely to have far-reaching consequences for the solar industry can be interpreted: China wants to impose an export ban on key solar manufacturing technologies. If the ban is implemented, it will hurt the Western industry, analyzes Nico Beckert. The People’s Republic is a global leader in both the manufacture of solar precursors and production equipment. According to experts, it is “almost impossible” to build a solar industry in Western countries without Chinese equipment.

    The Parliament is making speed: Tomorrow, the MEPs in the lead Industry Committee will vote on the compromise on the Data Act. Observers expect a clear majority, as the major groups support the proposal by rapporteur Pilar del Castillo Vera (EPP) – albeit in part reluctantly, as in the case of shadow rapporteur Damian Boeselager (Greens/EFA). The industry, on the other hand, criticizes the compromise clearly. They say one of the main design flaws of the Data Act is that it does not make an appropriate distinction between B2C and B2B business relationships. Corinna Visser has the details.

    Your
    Sarah Schaefer
    Image of Sarah  Schaefer

    Feature

    EU-USA: Green free trade to defuse IRA dispute

    The EU and the US want to cooperate more closely on the exchange of green goods. “We discuss whether common markets can be created through common standards and standard setting in green industries,” said Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck at the end of his visit to Washington on Tuesday. This is supposed to be achieved by the already existing expert group between the US and the EU, the Trade Technology Council (TTC).

    He said the talks were not about a comprehensive free trade agreement but about practical agreements: For example, products approved in the US market could automatically be approved in Europe and vice versa, Habeck said. This way, a “green bridge across the Atlantic” will be built.

    The move shows how the US and the EU intend to move carefully toward each other in the dispute over subsidies for green US products. On Tuesday, Habeck came to Washington with French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire to register European interests and sound out room for maneuver with the US government. In “close consultation with the EU Commission,” which is leading the negotiations, as was repeatedly emphasized.

    ‘Close coordination with Paris and Brussels’

    Both ministers completed a day of talks in Washington: Habeck visited Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo and Trade Representative Katherine Tai, and US President Biden’s IRA advisor John Podesta.

    Habeck praised the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) repeatedly, through which the US Congress cleared the way last summer for massive investments, including in green technologies: Some 370 billion dollars will be spent over ten years on renewable energies, green hydrogen, clean mobility, battery production and carbon storage (CCS), among other things. The package is intended to help reduce carbon emissions in the USA by one billion metric tons a year by 2030. According to a comprehensive study, it thus achieves two-thirds of the reduction needed to bring the US to net-zero emissions by 2050 as agreed.

    Pro industry and climate action – anti populism and China

    The IRA is particularly important in the US because:

    • It is intended to revitalize the industrial base.
    • It is intended to give disconnected regions like the “Rust Belt” a chance for economic recovery and less political populism in the wake of the Trump years.
    • It is intended to reduce strategic dependence on China, especially for green tech supply chains.
    • The Biden administration wants to use the IRA to link investments in future technologies with the fight against climate change.

    For US President Joe Biden, the passage of the IRA in the summer of 2022 was a great and surprising success. The subsidy package was also a key topic of his address to the nation Tuesday night.

    “We have been pushing the US to get serious about climate protection for a long time, and the IRA is a great thing,” Habeck said. Le Maire also stressed that a strong European industry cooperates best with a strong American industry. According to Habeck, European industries such as plant engineering would also benefit greatly from the IRA and the demand for products.

    EU calls for transparency, exceptions, commodity club

    However, Le Maire also stressed the need for fairness in mutual dealings. This statement refers to provisions in the IRA, according to which about 60 percent of all tax incentives include a “local content” clause. This means products must be made in whole or in part in the US or originate in Canada or Mexico, with which the US has free trade agreements. The EU announced that it would also streamline its state aid rules in response to the IRA.

    Europe pushes for changes in the IRA, particularly in the following areas:

    • An exemption from local content rules for EU electric lease cars, which the law already provides, is under pressure in the US. It must be kept, the Europeans demand.
    • A “Critical Minerals Club” is intended to secure and coordinate supply chains, especially for battery production, so that access to critical materials is maintained and, at the same time, dependence on China in this area is reduced. The USA has promised talks on this.
    • France, in particular, is insisting on more transparency: States should disclose which products receive which subsidies. Le Maire also proposed a “hotline” between governments when “strategic investments” are concerned. The US government also agreed to these two demands, Le Maire and Habeck said after their meetings.
    • Individual extremely high subsidies for US suppliers of green hydrogen bother the Europeans, as do higher subsidies for local content in renewable energy projects.

    Habeck and Le Maire emphasized that they did not expect the IRA to be changed again as a legislative package. They said it was now about progress in implementing provisions.

    Green US supply chains dependent on foreign countries

    A new study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) shows the importance of supply chains for green growth in the USA. According to the study, 76 percent of critical raw materials so far come from countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the US. In the case of critical green techs such as photovoltaics, wind turbines or lithium batteries, more than half of the raw materials come from non-free trade countries.

    “With the Inflation Reduction Act, the US primarily wants to support its domestic economy, make it more resilient to supply bottlenecks, and position itself as a technology leader. But their strong dependence on raw materials and technology could mean they continue to rely on countries without free trade agreements,” explains study author Josefin Meyer.

    • Climate & Environment
    • Climate Policy
    • Economy
    • Green free trade

    China hinders Western solar expansion

    It is a minor announcement that could have a major impact: China wants to place an export ban on important technologies for the production of solar systems. A final decision on this is still pending. A public consultation was open until the end of January. But all China experts consulted are certain that the export restrictions will come. Once a consultation period is over, China rarely reverses major changes to regulations, says Rebecca Arcesati, an analyst at the German China think tank Merics.

    If the plan goes through, the export of solar production technologies will only be possible with the approval of the authorities. “It will not be easy to obtain such permits,” says trade expert Wan-Hsin Liu of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The application is said to be a complicated process.

    First, a request has to be submitted, which is then reviewed based on, for example, security and industrial policy aspects. “Only then are companies allowed to negotiate the deals with potential buyers,” Liu says. If buyer and seller agree on the deal, a second export license must be applied for “with further documents”.

    China hits the West at a critical weak point

    The export restrictions will “definitely” slow down the development of own production capacities in western countries, says Johannes Bernreuter, an expert on solar supply chains. The know-how still exists, even outside China. But “the production capacities are tiny and not price-competitive”.

    Chinese production plants are much cheaper than Western ones – partly due to years of government subsidies for the sector, says the expert, who runs his own consulting agency. Due to the lack of price competitiveness, Western manufacturers of production equipment have withdrawn from the market. The Chinese export ban will therefore hit the Western industry at a critical weak point, Bernreuter says.

    The export restrictions would affect:

    • Production technologies for large solar wafers,
    • Production technologies for the wafer precursor, the so-called ingots – blocks of semiconductor material from which the wafers are sawn.
    • Production technologies for so-called black silicon. These are processed silicon that has a better absorption capacity.
    • As well as other, not further listed solar production technologies

    Developing a solar industry ‘almost impossible’ without China’s equipment

    The People’s Republic is the global leader in the production of these solar precursors. 97 percent of the solar wafers and ingots produced worldwide come from China.

    In solar production equipment, too, China is the global market leader. Developing a solar industry in the West without using Chinese equipment is “almost impossible”, write the analysts of the think tank Bloomberg NEF. The barriers to entry for the production of wafers and ingots are very high, they say. “The bleeding-edge knowledge” of photovoltaic manufacturing is in China, say the BNEF analysts.

    These export restrictions do not come at a surprising juncture. The USA recently earmarked billions in subsidies for the development of green industries under the Inflation Reduction Act. The EU also wants to catch up in green technologies. And India is taking big steps to build up its own solar industry.

    Economic and geopolitical motivation

    So China sees its dominance in the sector threatened. The solar sector is an important economic sector:

    • In 2021, the People’s Republic exported solar goods worth over 30 billion US dollars overseas.
    • In the first ten months of 2022, the sum was as high as 40 billion US dollars.
    • Between 2017 and 2021, the sector contributed 6.2 percent to the country’s gigantic foreign trade surplus.

    Similar approach for rare earths

    Restricting solar manufacturing tech exports is also politically motivated. “Beijing wants to keep Western countries dependent on China whenever possible and shore up dominance over the tech supply chains it controls,” says Merics analyst Arcesati. The country has built its export control system in recent years “to defend its security, economic, technological and industrial interests”. Accordingly, China’s decision should also be understood as a response to the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU’s efforts to build its own green supply chains, the analyst says.

    The explosive nature of the decision is also evident from the other goods that China has already placed on its “export restriction list” in the past. The list was first published in 2008. Technologies for the extraction and processing of rare earths were placed on the list early on, meaning that exports of these technologies are prohibited. China is also the world leader in mining and export of rare earths and had in the meantime almost established a monopoly position.

    Could China’s plan backfire?

    Beijing used its dominance in rare earths in a territorial dispute against Japan in 2010. It imposed an export ban and put massive pressure on Japan. China has built up its export control system in recent years “to defend its security, economic, technological and industrial interests,” says Arcesati of Merics.

    However, it is uncertain whether China will not in fact hurt itself in the long run with these export restrictions. “Threats of controlling solar tech will make others increase efforts to diversify,” speculates energy expert Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air on Twitter. A similar case was observed with the Chinese rare-earth embargo against Japan. The neighboring country stepped up its efforts to diversify its supply sources.

    • Energy
    • Inflation Reduction Act
    • Solar
    • Technology
    • Trade
    • USA

    Data Act: clear majority for compromise expected

    Unlike with the AI Act, this time, it is the Parliament that is setting the pace. The Council is still far from a general direction on the Data Act. However, this Thursday, MEPs in the lead industry committee (ITRE) are already voting on a compromise. The paper is available to Table.Media.

    Observers expect the proposal to find a clear majority as the major political groups EPP, S&D, Renew, Greens/EFA, and ECR support the compromise of rapporteur Pilar del Castillo Vera (EPP). Opposition comes from the industry, which warns of negative consequences for the competitiveness of European companies. The other committees involved have already issued their opinions. The plenary vote is scheduled for March 13.

    Protection against unfair contract practices for everyone

    The Parliament made several changes to the dossier proposed by Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton in February 2022. Among them:

    • Not only SMEs: All companies receive protection against unfair contract terms.
    • Definition and scope: Derived data, such as data generated by networked products by means of proprietary, complex algorithms, does not fall within the scope.
    • Data holder: a manufacturer is not automatically the sole data holder for the product’s lifetime.
    • Data access by public bodies: free of charge in case of a public emergency, for a “reasonable remuneration” in case of legally required tasks in the public interest.
    • Data sharing: “non-discriminatory and reasonable” compensation in the exchange of data between companies (B2B) and free access for consumers (B2C).

    Greens support the compromise

    Shadow rapporteur Damian Boeselager (Greens/EFA) is not satisfied, for example, when it comes to the definition of data. This is because manufacturers would be offered countless opportunities to restrict the data access rights of users, i.e. the owners of networked devices.

    These include trade secrets, security-related data, and data collected based on complex proprietary algorithms and anti-competition clauses. All restrictions made data sharing more legally uncertain. And they mean that the data economy is not sufficiently developed, says Boeselager. Overall, however, he and his group support the compromise.

    Renew sees good basis for data economy

    It is “a good start for a data sharing economy,” even if it still falls short of its possibilities, comments Nicola Beer (Renew), Vice President of the European Parliament, on the compromise. Her group colleague, shadow rapporteur Alin Mituța, even sees the Data Act as a core instrument. The compromise “creates the conditions for European companies, including SMEs, to have more access to data and innovation.”

    Mituța finds that the Parliament achieved clarity on many provisions, including definitions and scope. “It is a balanced approach because it introduces safeguards to protect our companies’ intellectual property rights while ensuring that companies do not strategically use the trade secrets exception to circumvent their data sharing obligations.”

    Niebler emphasizes importance of reviews

    Angelika Niebler (CSU) sees the main challenge with the Data Act as finding a balance between the different interests of data users and data owners. It was also important to better delineate which product data have to be shared – and which do not, such as data from prototypes. “It is also true that the Commission must now evaluate in its review whether it is economically attractive to collect high-quality and innovative data sets”, says Niebler.

    When it comes to the protection of trade secrets, Niebler would have liked to see more legal certainty for companies. She said it is clear that trade secret owners can suspend the sharing of such data in the event of a breach of the protective measures. “However, it would be better if the trade secret owner could also refuse to share such data in advance if these measures are not complied with,” Niebler says. “This is where improvements need to be made down the road.”

    Industry not convinced

    European and German industries also see a need for improvement. “The specific requirements of the Data Act pose considerable risks for the digitization of industry and Europe as an industrial location,” criticizes the German Engineering Federation (VDMA). It calls on the EU Parliament not to intervene in business relationships without good reason and to provide scope in the Data Act that is absolutely necessary for data exchange between companies.

    A central design flaw of the Data Act would be that it does not distinguish appropriately between B2C and B2B business relationships. But this fundamental distinction is elementary, it said, because no consumer needs to be protected in B2B relationships. The VDMA finds that “there are companies facing each other that can freely arrange the exchange of data in a way that is satisfactory for both sides.”

    The German Confederation of Skilled Crafts (ZDH) for its part is calling on members of the parliament to focus on the users of the products. “For their work, skilled crafts businesses depend on fair access to data generated from heating systems, smart homes, and vehicles,” says ZDH Secretary General Holger Schwannecke. The association fears a catalog of obligations difficult for craft businesses to keep track of. The result would be that data use and processing would become too risky for the companies.

    Difficult trilogue negotiations

    Nicola Beer expects the trilogue negotiations to be difficult. “There are also many national interests at play here,” she explains. “We thus have to make sure we don’t lose sight of the goal: It’s about a data-sharing economy that should promote innovation through improved access to raw data.” This, she says, helps SMEs and startups, in particular, to thrive. “In the trilogue, it will be important to follow through with the SME perspective and not buckle before the interests of the national champions.”

    • Data Act
    • Data protection
    • Digital policy
    • Digitalpolitik
    • Digitization
    • Thierry Breton
    • trilogue

    News

    EU creates new center against disinformation

    The EU wants to counter Chinese and Russian disinformation campaigns more effectively with a new platform. A newly created “Information Sharing and Analysis Centre” within the Diplomatic Service of the European Union (EEAS) will track disinformation from outside the EU and also coordinate with the 27 member states and civil society actors, EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell announced on Tuesday at an event on countering disinformation in Brussels. “Authoritarian regimes try to create misinformation and manipulate it,” Borrell warned.

    The idea is to create a decentralized platform for sharing information in real-time with countries, cybersecurity authorities, and NGOs. In this way, already existing disinformation campaigns should be better investigated and understood. It should also be able to respond more quickly to emerging narratives. Further details on the size and staffing of the center were not initially disclosed. Beyond the platform, Borrell also announced plans to add disinformation experts to EU delegations abroad.

    China also active in the Western Balkans

    Over the past year, the People’s Republic has mostly engaged in information manipulation in connection with the Ukraine war, according to a first report on the issue by the EU’s existing disinformation unit, the Stratcom department of the EEAS. The circulated narratives had mainly focused on supporting the Russian invasion, it said. “A majority of Ukraine-related reports in international channels of Chinese state-controlled media have been based on official Russian sources,” the Stratcom report explains.

    For the report, the Stratcom unit studied around 100 cases of information manipulation in greater detail. The report shows that the disinformation is predominantly image- and video-based, multilingual, and spread via a dense network of actors. On Twitter, the channels of diplomatic representatives from China and Russia are particularly involved.

    Apart from the war narrative, China is also very focused on its own reputation. “China’s parallel aim is to suppress competing, and potentially critical stories about itself, also by using intimidation and harassment”, the report says. For example, it would attempt to influence reports on human rights issues. China is also particularly active in the Western Balkans. ari

    • Cybersecurity
    • European policy

    Clean Tech: Berlin to cut EU bureaucracy

    The German government has launched a European initiative to cut bureaucracy in certain technology sectors. There are “plenty” of regulations in European law unnecessarily holding up the expansion of photovoltaics, for example, said State Secretary at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs Sven Giegold (Greens) at the informal Competitiveness Council in Stockholm on Tuesday.

    As an example, Giegold cited the limitation of the currently very popular balcony solar systems to 800 watts of inverter power, which is justified by EU standards. He also questioned the EU’s obligation to provide instructions for use printed on paper in various languages for numerous devices. The Ministry of Economics is currently compiling further examples.

    The initiative to reduce bureaucracy is intended to strengthen Europe as a production location for technologies such as wind power, solar energy, heat pumps, and semiconductors. In the fall, German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck already initiated the Clean Tech Europe platform, which serves the same goal. Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton announced at Tuesday’s meeting that he would also take up the new initiative.

    Response to Inflation Reduction Act

    The EU is currently discussing ways to remain competitive in these future markets due to massive subsidies in the USA, China, or India. Last week, the EU Commission proposed a package of measures that would also give member states more leeway to subsidize new production facilities.

    France and Germany, in particular, are pushing for changes to the state aid law – procedures would be too bureaucratic and slow. However, several member states warn against relying too heavily on subsidies in view of their limited financial leeway. Berlin is meeting the critics halfway with its initiative to cut bureaucracy.

    The heads of state and government also want to discuss the matter at the special summit on Thursday. The current draft of the conclusions states, for example, that “administrative and approval procedures should be simplified and accelerated.” tho

    • Aid
    • bureaucracy
    • Clean tech
    • Energy
    • Inflation Reduction Act
    • Solar

    Zelenskiy’s Brussels visit not yet official

    There is no official confirmation of Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s visit to Brussels on Thursday. Confirmed is only that Council President Charles Michel invited the Ukrainian President to attend a European Council. That he will come to the summit, where Russia, Ukraine, and migration are on the agenda, as early as Thursday and Friday, is not confirmed.

    There was also talk of Zelenskiy speaking at a special session at 10 a.m. in the European Parliament. No regular session was scheduled for Thursday. Yesterday evening, the Bureau decided to invite MEPs for a meeting on Thursday between ten and eleven o’clock.

    Travel is risky

    Monday afternoon, a tweet by the EPP parliamentary group announced Zelenskiy’s appearance in Parliament. The tweet was quickly withdrawn. Apparently, the group’s social media team had rushed to spread the news, disregarding the risks.

    Any trip is a high risk for the politician whose country has been the target of Russia’s war of aggression for almost a year. According to reports, Parliament Speaker Roberta Metsola had informed the parliamentary groups about the possible visit on Monday afternoon. Since the outbreak of the war, Zelenskiy made only one foreign trip to the United States. Back then, there were attempts to keep his visit to the USA secret as long as possible. mgr

    • Brussels
    • Charles Michel
    • European Council
    • European Parliament
    • Ukraine
    • Volodymyr Zelenskiy

    Discussions on EU ban on PFAS chemicals

    On Tuesday, the European Union began talks on a possible ban on the widely used synthesized industrial chemical group PFAS. Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway had proposed banning per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS), which are suspected carcinogens and could cause immune deficiencies.

    The countries said in a joint statement that this is one of the largest bans on chemical substances in Europe. “A ban on PFAS would reduce PFAS levels in the environment in the long term. It would also make products and processes safer for humans.”

    However, it is expected to take years for such a ban to take effect. Within the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA), two scientific committees, for Risk Assessment (RAC) and Socio-Economic Analysis (SEAC), will consider whether a PFAS ban is compatible with the EU Regulation on Chemicals (REACH). There will then be scientific evaluation and consultation with the industry. ECHA commented that the two committees could take longer than the usual 12 months to complete their assessment. Subsequently, the Commission and EU member states will make a decision.

    Possibly no alternatives

    According to the draft proposal, companies would be given between 18 months and 12 years to introduce alternative substances, depending on availability. “In many cases, no such alternatives exist at the moment, and in some, they may never exist,” the countries said. They said companies thus need to start searching for substitutes now.

    PFAS are suspected of being harmful to health. According to the report, they could cause liver damage, thyroid disorders, obesity, fertility problems, and cancer, among other things. The substances are extremely long-lived and are also known as “forever chemicals.” They withstand extreme temperatures and corrosion and are used in tens of thousands of products, including coolants, aircraft, cars, textiles, medical equipment, and wind turbines. rtr

    • Chemicals
    • European policy
    • forever chemicals
    • Health

    Thousands protest against planned pension reform in France

    Once again, thousands have taken to the streets in numerous French cities in protest against the planned pension reform. There were rallies on Tuesday, for example, in Bordeaux, Rennes, Montpellier, and Toulouse. At the same time, there were also strikes again such as on the railroads, in schools, and in the energy sector.

    France’s centrist government under Head of State Emmanuel Macron wants to raise the retirement age gradually from 62 to 64. It wants to accelerate the increase in the period needed to pay into a full pension. In addition, individual pension systems with privileges for certain occupational groups are to be abolished.

    Majority not yet in place

    Currently, the retirement age is 62. However, retirement actually begins later on average: those who have not paid into the pension scheme long enough to be entitled to a full pension work longer. At 67, regardless of the length of the pension deposit, they will receive a pension without deductions – and the government wants to keep it that way. It plans to raise the minimum pension to about €1,200.

    According to the government, the reform is necessary because the pension system is heading for a deficit. The unions find the reform plans unfairly. According to the Interior Ministry, more than 1.27 million people demonstrated last week. The CGT union said some 2.8 million took part in strikes and protests.

    Meanwhile, the plan has arrived at the plenum of the National Assembly for consideration. The deliberation is expected to last until the end of next week. The government does not have its own majority in the parliamentary chamber and is hoping for approval from the conservative Républicains. However, there are reservations there as well. A majority is not yet in place. dpa

    • Emmanuel Macron
    • France
    • pension reform

    Heads

    Florian Rothenberg – emissions trading expert

    Florian Rothenberg is an emissions trading analyst at ICIS.

    During the phone call, Florian Rothenberg is wrapped in a wool blanket. The energy crisis does not only concern him in his profession – he is an emissions trading analyst at the information service Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS) in Karlsruhe. The high energy prices are also an issue for him in his private life: Because he wants to win the energy-saving challenge of the Karlsruhe municipal utility company and reduce his consumption by at least 20 percent, he hardly heats at all and showers cold. And he wears warm clothes while working in his home office.

    In his job, Rothenberg is currently focusing on how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will affect European emissions trading and the energy markets.

    At the beginning of the crisis, many market participants, including Rothenberg’s clients, had feared that politicians would drop emissions trading – the prices for energy and pollution rights had simply risen too high. “But trust is very important in the market,” says Rothenberg. After all, if an industrial company buys certificates for the next ten years, it needs to be able to rely on the fact that the emissions trading system will still exist.

    Emissions trading ‘got off lightly’

    In the end, there was a compromise: frontloading. Companies can buy more certificates in the short term but fewer in the future. As a result, emissions trading has not become collateral damage of the energy crisis, says the expert. “Compared to other markets such as the electricity or gas market, it got off lightly.”

    Rothenberg, 28, has been working at ICIS for six years, and “it doesn’t get boring.” He studied industrial engineering in Karlsruhe, Germany, where it is normal to hear about ICIS at some point. “Emissions trading remains a niche, which is why not all students are familiar with ICIS,” Rothenberg says. “But anyone who studies energy economics stumbles across us.”

    The analyst’s central topics are energy markets and decarbonization. Rothenberg is also constantly learning about trends that could affect the markets. He finds that exciting: “The carbon issue is everywhere. I need to understand very quickly where energy is needed and consumed – and how that affects emissions trading.”

    For this, he collects data on the demand and supply of pollution allowances, among other things. He studies how prices are formed and why they fall or rise. He records his analyses in mathematical models and discusses the results with colleagues and then with his clients.

    Restructuring the economy takes time

    The EU’s Green Deal is currently an important issue for him. “The big question is at what carbon price Europe can achieve Net-Zero,” says Florian Rothenberg. This is not about a specific amount of money, but a price path. Because that is one of the most important decision-making factors for industrial companies to invest in climate protection.

    Climate researchers criticize that the EU’s targets do not go far enough. “That is probably true, but more ambitious targets should have been initiated five to ten years ago,” says Rothenberg. “For the economy to cut EU emissions by 55 percent by 2030 is a huge step because it takes an incredibly long time to transform.”

    His own carbon footprint, Rothenberg admits, is “probably significantly worse than the world average.” That’s because he likes to travel and flies by plane. At least he takes the train to save on emissions when he travels on business. “I believe everyone can and should do a small part to combat climate change.” Patricia Hoffhaus

    • Emissions
    • Energy
    • Energy crisis
    • Green Deal

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