Table.Briefing: Europe

Grain exports + Deepfake regulation + German hydrogen

Dear reader,

The meeting of the eight riparian states in Belém, Brazil, was unable to live up to the high expectations and high hopes that the Amazon Summit had aroused among climate and environmental activists. Nevertheless, the final declaration can be a basis for far-reaching cooperation to protect the forests. In doing so, it sends a clear signal to the EU.

In one of the very first paragraphs, the eight states condemn the “proliferation of unilateral trade measures that create barriers to trade based on environmental requirements and standards”. To be sure, the European Union is not explicitly mentioned. Nevertheless, it is clear that the negotiations of the Mercosur alliance of states with the EU are at stake here.

What the EU calls sustainability rules, the final document describes as trade barriers that primarily burden domestic small producers and complicate their “pursuit of sustainable development” and their fight against poverty and hunger. (Read Daniela Chiaretti’s in-depth analysis of the Amazon Summit over at Climate.Table).

The statements of Paraguay’s president-elect Santiago Peña go in the same direction. His country is not a member of the Amazon region, but it does belong to Mercosur, as does Brazil. Mercosur and the EU should put talks on a free trade agreement on hold, Peña said in an interview with the Reuters news agency. The EU’s current environmental demands are “unacceptable“, he explained. They hinder, for example, the economic development of Paraguay’s most important soy exporter.

However, the European Commission remains determined to conclude the EU-Mercosur agreement before the end of the year. Mercosur representatives are currently preparing a counter-proposal. In this, the EU wants to see its proposals on sustainability and the protection of forests taken into account. For their part, the Mercosur states criticize the environmental requirements as pure protectionism.

As a result, Peña says the EU needs to clarify whether or not it wants to move forward with a free trade agreement. “Today I doubt that it has a real interest in doing so.” From his point of view, the negotiations should be concluded and a decision simply made: “Do we want this, or do we not want this?” But as is often the case, things aren’t that simple.

Your
Corinna Visser
Image of Corinna  Visser

Feature

Norbert Lins (CDU): ‘Assume transport costs for Ukrainian grain’

Norbert Lins (CDU), head of the EU’s Committee on Agriculture, calls for the EU to cover costs of transporting Ukrainian grain by land through the EU.

Mr. Lins, Moscow has terminated the grain agreement and is bombarding Ukraine’s grain export logistics. How is the export of the harvest going?

Very slowly. It is important that the EU now gives Ukraine a perspective and opens all possible border crossings and provides logistics infrastructure for the removal.

Last year, it was possible to export 33 million tons of Ukrainian grain via the EU. What quantities are we talking about this time?

The estimates amount to 50 million tons of Ukrainian grain that would be ready for export in the 2023/24 season. In total, more than 60 million tons have been exported last year, a large part via the Black Sea ports and said 33 million tons via the EU mainland. This year, the Ukrainian crop is expected to be somewhat lower. Reasons are mined fields, fuel and fertilizer shortages.

What are the forecasts?

Last year’s harvest was around 58 million tons, plus residual stocks from the previous year. Now it is assumed that the harvest in Ukraine will be just under 50 million tons. These are estimates; the harvest has not yet been completed. Barley has been harvested, wheat is in progress, and corn will not be harvested until the fall. Therefore, the forecasts for corn are the most uncertain. One can expect 20 percent less grain to come from Ukraine this season.

The destination decides

Is it realistic to export these quantities without transportation across the Black Sea?

I think it is possible if the EU and the Commission finally get more involved.

What is needed?

Transport by land is more expensive because the distances are longer. Transportation by truck costs the most, but the train is also significantly more expensive than the ship. The EU should provide logistics subsidies to bring down transport costs for companies. The Agriculture Commissioner recently adopted this proposal from the Agriculture Committee, which I expressly welcome.

How is this supposed to work?

Grain traders would have to show where the grain is going. For example, Poland as a destination would not be okay because there is a surplus there. Destination Spain, for example, where feed grain is needed this year, would be okay. There would be logistics subsidies for that. Based on the calculation and the world market price, it becomes clear how high the transport subsidy must be to make the trader competitive.

‘Need for action concerning oilseeds’

Should there be subsidies for all grain deals from Ukraine?

It must be the EU’s priority to make Ukrainian bread-wheat competitive on the world market. If Russia exports bread wheat to countries like Tunisia or Egypt, for example, Russian traders can make better prices than Ukrainian traders who have to pay for the more costly overland transport. That’s where things are clearest. But I also see a need for action for the EU in oilseeds, i.e. rapeseed and sunflower, both for third markets and for the EU market.

Why?

Especially for feed grain, suppliers from South America are competitors on the EU market for traders of Ukrainian grain. Spain needs large quantities of feed grain, especially this year. If overland transport makes Ukrainian grain more expensive, soy from South America is often cheaper. This should be compensated.

Lins sees ‘inaction’ on Wojciechowski’s part

Do you not fear price distortions on the EU markets?

Careful consideration, observation of developments and organization of logistics support are required. It is explicitly not a matter of flooding the EU market and bringing prices down here. The focus is on the third market: The EU should not resign itself to the fact that Russia can use the advantage of direct shipping via the Black Sea to dominate the bread wheat business.

How has Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski managed the crisis so far?

The Polish Commissioner of Agriculture’s crisis management is flawed. He supported Solidarity Lanes at the beginning of the war. But when he felt the headwind from his home country, he backed down. His inaction contributed to the fact that the situation in the neighboring states became so bad and Ukrainian agricultural products remained there in large quantities. As a result, Poland and Ukraine’s four other neighbors obtained the import ban for their countries in May. If the commissioner had cleared the way earlier for logistics support, which the committee has long been calling for, it would not have come to this.

How can the Commission clear the way for logistics aid?

The money for this is not currently available. There are also no estimates of how expensive the logistics support would be. The Commission must now take the initiative and do this. Political will is needed. I call on German Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir (Greens) to forge a coalition of the willing. He should now seek like-minded people among the member states and get the ball rolling. It is in our interest to stabilize the world’s food situation. Ukrainian grain would contribute to this. The cost to Europe will be higher if the EU does not act. We have seen how Putin gave away wheat at the recent summit in Petersburg. We must prevent the poorest countries from becoming completely dependent on Russia.

Commission to extend CAP exemptions

Are price increases to be expected?

One must expect higher prices for bread wheat. The qualities of bread wheat suffer from the fact that it was first too dry this year and is now too wet. As a result, there will be significantly more feed wheat available. The trade expects at least twelve percent protein content in bread wheat. Above 14 percent, it is referred to as elite wheat. The price range between bread wheat and feed wheat is therefore likely to diverge. A good harvest is still expected for corn.

Who would be affected by price increases?

It particularly affects those countries that are dependent on bread wheat imports. But it also affects the EU, because we pay world market prices. In May 2022, we had peak prices of €430 per ton of wheat; at the moment, the price is €220. So a moderate increase would be bearable.

What role does the EU play in bread wheat?

The EU exports significantly more bread wheat than Ukraine. It should now also be a matter of securing EU exports of cereals. The Commission should send a signal for the next harvest and extend the temporary suspension of the set-aside and crop rotation rules once again. This measure has helped to ensure that the EU harvest this year is no smaller than in 2022, and there may even be an increase of up to three percent.

  • Agricultural Policy
  • Agriculture
  • Cereals
  • GAP
  • Poland
  • Ukraine

AI regulation: China’s fear of deepfakes

Police authorities in the city of Baotou, Inner Mongolia, reported in May that a man was stolen the equivalent of 622,000 US dollars with the help of deepfake technology. A hacker had tricked him with a deceptively real AI clone of a friend who told him in a video call that he urgently needed money. This was not the naive victim of a grandparent scam. The victim is a senior executive at a tech company in Fuzhou. And yet, his fake friend’s lifelike body language and voice fooled him enough that he instantly pulled out his wallet.

Lip-synchronous image and video fakes using artificial intelligence, so-called “deepfakes,” can be created with increasing ease thanks to growing computing power and storage capacities. The results, which can be generated with cheap software, are almost impossible to distinguish from the original for a layperson, as proven by fake speeches of politicians such as Putin or Trump. The technology is used, for example, to generate clickbait on the Internet, for example, by placing famous actors in movies in which they have never acted.

Deepfake crimes increase rapidly

Deepfake technology poses great dangers, for example when fake politicians’ speeches are taken at face value or used specifically in political smear campaigns. Digital identity theft is already being used on a massive scale for pornographic videos and increasingly also for blackmail.

Worldwide, fraud cases involving deepfakes have increased massively in the past three years. This was calculated by Sumsub, a company specializing in AI security. Australia (5.3 percent), Argentina (5.1 percent) and China (4.9 percent) were particularly affected, accounting for the share of deepfakes in fraud crimes in 2022 and 2023.

Deepfakes also cause massive economic damage

Although the scammed tech executive from Inner Mongolia recovered most of his money with the help of police, the case sparked heated debates about online security in China. The Internet Society of China warned the public to be more vigilant. The fear of online fraud is far more real in China, where the media world is permeated by professional live streamers, than elsewhere. For example, the cases of unknown online influencers posing as celebrities on video sites such as Bilibili using faceswap technology to generate hits and money have increased in recent months.

The music industry is also currently engaged in a fierce battle against the economic threats posed by deepfakes. For example, the FT reports that Universal Music is currently negotiating with Google about licensing artists’ melodies and voices for songs produced by third parties using artificial intelligence. Up to now, well-known voices and popular melodies have generally been used without the artists’ consent.

Beijing requires labeling of AI-generated content

Beijing rates deepfake technology as high-risk, not least because it can potentially undermine public order. In January, China’s Cyberspace Administration (CAC) enacted a series of regulations on what it called “deepfake technology.” Content that “endangers national security and national interests and damages the national image” is banned outright, according to the “Regulations on Deep Synthesis Internet Information Services.”

The authority requires providers of more harmless content to “clearly label” AI-generated content, as it could otherwise “cause confusion among the public or lead to misidentification.” Users would have to be able to immediately distinguish authentic media content from fakes. Watermarks, for example, are mentioned. Failure to label such content is punishable as a criminal offense.

All producers of deepfakes and users of deepfake services such as faceswap apps must also register with real names under the new rules. One rationale is that certain deepfakes will not be created in the first place, given the increased effort. This month, China’s Cyberspace Administration (CAC) also reiterated that all generative AI services must align with the party’s core socialist values.

China is faster than EU with AI Act

China is one of the first countries to introduce comprehensive rules for dealing with deepfake technology. Other countries, such as Taiwan, England, and several US states, such as Florida, are already taking legal action against certain sub-sectors, such as artificially created porn and forged political speeches. Elsewhere, work is underway to adapt existing regulations to the new threats, for example, in Singapore, where the Personal Data Protection Act (PDPA), which regulates the collection, use and disclosure of personal data, is being expanded to cover deepfake risks.

The European Union also plans to limit deepfakes by introducing a set of rules on artificial intelligence, the “AI Act.” However, labeling relevant content will remain voluntary for the time being. Critics of this solution, such as SPD leader Saskia Esken, believe that this is not enough to prevent real damage.

A cat-and-mouse game with deepfakes

Swift action will be needed in any case. With constantly increasing bandwidths, it will soon be possible to not only fake people, but entire scenarios with such realism that it will be impossible to distinguish them from actual events. In his latest book, a future outlook into the year 2041, AI expert Kai-Fu Lee writes that anti-deepfake programs will soon be as common as anti-virus software.

Both Facebook and Google have already offered rewards for the best deep fake detection software. But fakes will likely get better and better in the process, too. A cat-and-mouse game with an unknown outcome, Lee believes. He says we have to get used to a world in which we have to question everything on the Internet even more than we do today. This is one of the reasons why it simply won’t work without binding laws and appropriate penalties.

  • Artificial intelligence
  • Artificial Intelligence Regulation
  • China
  • Digital policy

Events

Aug. 14, 2023; online
AI, Workshop US-German Forum Future Agriculture
The Aspen Institute (AI) is developing recommendations for action to shape future agricultural policy. INFORMATION

News

Hydrogen Europe sees Germany as a hub

In response to the EU Commission’s latest hydrogen study, industry association Hydrogen Europe stresses Germany’s role as the hub of a hydrogen market in Europe. “The study’s statement that virtually no capacities for electrolysis are needed in Germany is surprising only at first glance“, CEO Jorgo Chatzimarkakis told Table.Media on Wednesday.

“If we look at the final conclusion that hydrogen can only be produced cost-effectively in Europe if there is a corresponding infrastructure for hydrogen, then Germany can particularly play out its advantages“, Chatzimarkakis is convinced. Berlin has sent clear signals to start building a hydrogen core network including storage facilities. Germany is thus already positioning itself for the scenario described in the study.

“Moreover, as one of the main producers of electrolyzers, Germany will benefit massively from the EU’s internal market and the huge increase in demand for the technology. The more partnership-based the approach, the better for Germany”, said the Hydrogen Europe chairman.

Grimm refers to resistance of French extreme right

Criticism of the content of the Fraunhofer ISI study for the Directorate General for Energy came from economist Veronika Grimm, who is also a member of the German government’s National Hydrogen Council: “The scenario described in the study can only occur with very low electrolysis costs and an extremely high expansion of renewable energies in Europe. For France in particular, one may ask whether this is at all realistic, given the opposition of the extreme right to the expansion of wind power.”

Grimm also criticized the study’s finding that Europe could supply itself most cost-effectively through domestic hydrogen production: “Particularly when importing hydrogen derivatives, it will be important to diversify wisely and not just buy from the cheapest supplier.” He added that it is also important to import products for which a global commodity market could emerge. “So it’s dangerous to suggest now that we don’t need to rely on imports”, Grimm said.

Reiche insists on domestic production

Imports from third countries are also part of the necessary triad for the chairwoman of the National Hydrogen Council, Katherina Reiche, in order to secure the required quantities for Germany: “We will only succeed if we dovetail three things: ramp up domestic production, build up the corresponding infrastructure and enter into long-term import partnerships. Germany needs international partnerships – in Europe and beyond.”

For domestic production, she said, the German government also needs to put money in hand. “High energy prices will continue to keep the cost of electrolysis in Germany at a high level without government subsidies. National solutions are needed here”, says the CEO of Westenergie, a grid operator owned by Eon. ber

Vestager cancels consultancy contract on digital monopolies

The Commission has announced it will end a controversial contract with consultancy RBB Economics on EU competition policy. “Following the European Ombudsman’s opening of an inquiry into how the Commission assessed the risk of a potential professional conflict of interest in this contract award, the Commission informed RBB on July 27 of its intention to terminate the contract”, Commission Vice-President Margrethe Vestager wrote in a reply to a parliamentary question from two left-wing MEPs published on Tuesday.

The Ombudsman’s investigation stems from a complaint by LobbyControl and Corporate Europe Observatory. LobbyControl considered the announcement on Wednesday a great success. “At the same time, the Commission must now ensure that something like this does not happen again in the future and therefore use the ongoing negotiations on financial regulation to significantly tighten the rules on conflicts of interest”, said campaigner Felix Duffy.

Commission could now conduct study itself

The background to this is a review of European competition policy launched in 2021 with the aim of reducing digital monopolies. RBB has been commissioned to conduct this study. However, the company had previously advised large corporations on competition issues – including Google, “in connection with the three fines imposed on the company by the Commission for anti-competitive behavior and abuse of a dominant position”, the parliamentarians José Gusmão and Marisa Matias criticized in their question.

Noting that the Commission believes the study could be perceived as biased by certain stakeholders, Vestager now responded, “The termination of the contract will allow the Commission to complete the study either with the help of another contractor or solely with its own resources in a way that avoids the perception of lack of independence and objectivity.” ber

Data Governance Act: logos for trusted data brokers

Logo: In der EU anerkannter Datenvermittler

Which data can I trust? To make this easier to recognize, the Commission has now introduced common logos. Using the protected trademarks, users in the EU can better identify recognized providers of data brokering services and data altruistic organizations. Data altruism means that an organization shares data voluntarily and without remuneration.

The Commission’s aim is to contribute to transparency in the data market in this way. Both personal and non-personal data, public as well as secret data fall within the scope of the DGA. Where personal data is involved, the GDPR also applies.

Data Governance Act: register coming in September

The introduction of these logos via enforcement regulation is part of the implementation of the Data Governance Act. The DGA is a cross-sectoral instrument that aims to make more data available in the EU by increasing trust in data reuse and sharing. To this end, the Act encourages the introduction of new types of data intermediaries and promotes the sharing of data for socially desirable purposes. This includes, for example, data for research in the fields of health, the environment and mobility.

Data intermediaries and organizations shall connect data owners (individuals or companies) with data users. Those that meet the conditions set forth in the DGA and choose to use the logos must clearly display them on every online and offline publication. In addition, the logo must be accompanied by a QR code. This contains a link to the EU public register of recognized data altruism organizations. The register will be available from Sept. 24, 2023. vis

  • European Commission

Niger: EU prepares sanctions

The European Union has begun preparing sanctions against members of the junta in Niger, sources told Reuters yesterday. The junta seized power in the West African country by force last month.

An EU official in charge of sanctions and an EU diplomat said the EU has begun discussing the criteria for punitive measures. These include “undermining democracy” in Niger, the official said, and agreement would likely be reached soon. “The next step would be sanctions against individual members of the junta” deemed responsible, an EU diplomat said. National officials discussed the matter Wednesday, another EU diplomat said. All three sources spoke on condition of anonymity. The approval of all 27 EU member states is required to impose sanctions.

Sanctions likely to be discussed at end of August

Leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) planned to meet today after the deadline for the reinstatement of ousted Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum expired. “The EU stands ready to support ECOWAS decisions, including the adoption of sanctions”, said Peter Stano, spokesman for the European External Action Service (EEAS).

EU foreign ministers are expected to discuss the situation in Niger, including sanctions, at a meeting in Toledo, Spain, on Aug. 31. The EU, one of the largest aid donors to Niger, had already said last month that it would suspend security cooperation and financial assistance. The country had been pledged €503 million for the period 2021 to 2024, mainly to improve governance and education.

On Wednesday, former rebel leader and former minister Rhissa Ag Boula launched a movement against the junta, the first sign of internal resistance to army rule in Niger since the July 26 coup. rtr/lei

Slovenia receives millions in aid

The EU will provide Slovenia with at least €400 million to fight the consequences of the floods, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday. Devastating floods in the country have killed at least six people and affected tens of thousands of households.

“We have a good package of immediate, medium- and long-term support for Slovenia“, von der Leyen said at a joint press conference with Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob during a visit to a flood-hit area.

The Commission President said the country could also apply for help from the NextGenerationEU funding pot, from which Slovenia has €2.7 billion. In addition, €3.3 billion from other EU funds could be reallocated for immediate support after the floods, which have already been allocated to Slovenia, von der Leyen said. rtr

Heads

Nils Redeker – think tanker, economic expert, optimist

As an economic expert and Vice Director of the Jacques Delors Centre for European Policy, Nils Redeker must provide answers before the questions arise.

Nils Redeker is an optimist. He has no other choice. There are enough people who say why something can’t be done, he says. “There is nothing more pointless than a cynical think tank”, says the Vice Director of the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin. Founded in 2014, the think tank is a Berlin-based research institution affiliated with the private Hertie School in Berlin. The center combines scientific research in the field of European policy with the development of concrete ideas for the future.

In 2019, when the institute became part of the Hertie School, Redeker took a position there as a policy fellow for European economic policy, rising to deputy director in 2022. Since then, he has advised the German government and the European Union on economic issues. Shortly after the energy crisis emerged, he worked closely with the German Ministry for Finance and foundations such as the European Climate Foundation. It’s a turbulent time, but one in which Redeker says there are many opportunities for progress: “The more things happen in the world, the more opportunities institutions like us have to contribute.” If there were no external shocks, many countries in Europe would remain stuck in their positions. “As experts in European policy, we have to try to surf very close to the political wave and have the answers ready even before the questions are asked by politicians.”

Translator between Brussels and Berlin

Redeker studied political science and economics in Berlin and London. In 2014, he wrote his doctoral thesis on macroeconomic imbalances in the eurozone at the University of Zurich. He was a Visiting Fellow at Harvard University, completed internships in the Bundestag, and wrote speeches for former German President Horst Köhler. The Jacques Delores Centre was then the ideal way for him to combine politics and science in one job, he says. “I also see myself as a ‘translator’ between the different levels in Europe”, says Redeker.

In Berlin, he says, many political actors are unaware of what is institutionally possible at the European level, and in Brussels, people are often irritated by decisions made in Berlin. “Many underestimate how important such translation work is by us non-politicians”, says Redeker. “We can appear credible, without an agenda, and mediate between the actors.”

How can you tell that Nils Redeker is actually an optimist? When asked what is going badly in Europe, he first and foremost emphasizes what is going well. “In the crises of recent years, one thing has become clear: When the house is on fire, we in Europe are good at delivering water.” What’s missing, however, is a truly long-term strategy for Europe’s economy, he says. Gregor Scheu

Europe.Table Editorial Office

EUROPE.TABLE EDITORS

Licenses:
    Dear reader,

    The meeting of the eight riparian states in Belém, Brazil, was unable to live up to the high expectations and high hopes that the Amazon Summit had aroused among climate and environmental activists. Nevertheless, the final declaration can be a basis for far-reaching cooperation to protect the forests. In doing so, it sends a clear signal to the EU.

    In one of the very first paragraphs, the eight states condemn the “proliferation of unilateral trade measures that create barriers to trade based on environmental requirements and standards”. To be sure, the European Union is not explicitly mentioned. Nevertheless, it is clear that the negotiations of the Mercosur alliance of states with the EU are at stake here.

    What the EU calls sustainability rules, the final document describes as trade barriers that primarily burden domestic small producers and complicate their “pursuit of sustainable development” and their fight against poverty and hunger. (Read Daniela Chiaretti’s in-depth analysis of the Amazon Summit over at Climate.Table).

    The statements of Paraguay’s president-elect Santiago Peña go in the same direction. His country is not a member of the Amazon region, but it does belong to Mercosur, as does Brazil. Mercosur and the EU should put talks on a free trade agreement on hold, Peña said in an interview with the Reuters news agency. The EU’s current environmental demands are “unacceptable“, he explained. They hinder, for example, the economic development of Paraguay’s most important soy exporter.

    However, the European Commission remains determined to conclude the EU-Mercosur agreement before the end of the year. Mercosur representatives are currently preparing a counter-proposal. In this, the EU wants to see its proposals on sustainability and the protection of forests taken into account. For their part, the Mercosur states criticize the environmental requirements as pure protectionism.

    As a result, Peña says the EU needs to clarify whether or not it wants to move forward with a free trade agreement. “Today I doubt that it has a real interest in doing so.” From his point of view, the negotiations should be concluded and a decision simply made: “Do we want this, or do we not want this?” But as is often the case, things aren’t that simple.

    Your
    Corinna Visser
    Image of Corinna  Visser

    Feature

    Norbert Lins (CDU): ‘Assume transport costs for Ukrainian grain’

    Norbert Lins (CDU), head of the EU’s Committee on Agriculture, calls for the EU to cover costs of transporting Ukrainian grain by land through the EU.

    Mr. Lins, Moscow has terminated the grain agreement and is bombarding Ukraine’s grain export logistics. How is the export of the harvest going?

    Very slowly. It is important that the EU now gives Ukraine a perspective and opens all possible border crossings and provides logistics infrastructure for the removal.

    Last year, it was possible to export 33 million tons of Ukrainian grain via the EU. What quantities are we talking about this time?

    The estimates amount to 50 million tons of Ukrainian grain that would be ready for export in the 2023/24 season. In total, more than 60 million tons have been exported last year, a large part via the Black Sea ports and said 33 million tons via the EU mainland. This year, the Ukrainian crop is expected to be somewhat lower. Reasons are mined fields, fuel and fertilizer shortages.

    What are the forecasts?

    Last year’s harvest was around 58 million tons, plus residual stocks from the previous year. Now it is assumed that the harvest in Ukraine will be just under 50 million tons. These are estimates; the harvest has not yet been completed. Barley has been harvested, wheat is in progress, and corn will not be harvested until the fall. Therefore, the forecasts for corn are the most uncertain. One can expect 20 percent less grain to come from Ukraine this season.

    The destination decides

    Is it realistic to export these quantities without transportation across the Black Sea?

    I think it is possible if the EU and the Commission finally get more involved.

    What is needed?

    Transport by land is more expensive because the distances are longer. Transportation by truck costs the most, but the train is also significantly more expensive than the ship. The EU should provide logistics subsidies to bring down transport costs for companies. The Agriculture Commissioner recently adopted this proposal from the Agriculture Committee, which I expressly welcome.

    How is this supposed to work?

    Grain traders would have to show where the grain is going. For example, Poland as a destination would not be okay because there is a surplus there. Destination Spain, for example, where feed grain is needed this year, would be okay. There would be logistics subsidies for that. Based on the calculation and the world market price, it becomes clear how high the transport subsidy must be to make the trader competitive.

    ‘Need for action concerning oilseeds’

    Should there be subsidies for all grain deals from Ukraine?

    It must be the EU’s priority to make Ukrainian bread-wheat competitive on the world market. If Russia exports bread wheat to countries like Tunisia or Egypt, for example, Russian traders can make better prices than Ukrainian traders who have to pay for the more costly overland transport. That’s where things are clearest. But I also see a need for action for the EU in oilseeds, i.e. rapeseed and sunflower, both for third markets and for the EU market.

    Why?

    Especially for feed grain, suppliers from South America are competitors on the EU market for traders of Ukrainian grain. Spain needs large quantities of feed grain, especially this year. If overland transport makes Ukrainian grain more expensive, soy from South America is often cheaper. This should be compensated.

    Lins sees ‘inaction’ on Wojciechowski’s part

    Do you not fear price distortions on the EU markets?

    Careful consideration, observation of developments and organization of logistics support are required. It is explicitly not a matter of flooding the EU market and bringing prices down here. The focus is on the third market: The EU should not resign itself to the fact that Russia can use the advantage of direct shipping via the Black Sea to dominate the bread wheat business.

    How has Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski managed the crisis so far?

    The Polish Commissioner of Agriculture’s crisis management is flawed. He supported Solidarity Lanes at the beginning of the war. But when he felt the headwind from his home country, he backed down. His inaction contributed to the fact that the situation in the neighboring states became so bad and Ukrainian agricultural products remained there in large quantities. As a result, Poland and Ukraine’s four other neighbors obtained the import ban for their countries in May. If the commissioner had cleared the way earlier for logistics support, which the committee has long been calling for, it would not have come to this.

    How can the Commission clear the way for logistics aid?

    The money for this is not currently available. There are also no estimates of how expensive the logistics support would be. The Commission must now take the initiative and do this. Political will is needed. I call on German Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir (Greens) to forge a coalition of the willing. He should now seek like-minded people among the member states and get the ball rolling. It is in our interest to stabilize the world’s food situation. Ukrainian grain would contribute to this. The cost to Europe will be higher if the EU does not act. We have seen how Putin gave away wheat at the recent summit in Petersburg. We must prevent the poorest countries from becoming completely dependent on Russia.

    Commission to extend CAP exemptions

    Are price increases to be expected?

    One must expect higher prices for bread wheat. The qualities of bread wheat suffer from the fact that it was first too dry this year and is now too wet. As a result, there will be significantly more feed wheat available. The trade expects at least twelve percent protein content in bread wheat. Above 14 percent, it is referred to as elite wheat. The price range between bread wheat and feed wheat is therefore likely to diverge. A good harvest is still expected for corn.

    Who would be affected by price increases?

    It particularly affects those countries that are dependent on bread wheat imports. But it also affects the EU, because we pay world market prices. In May 2022, we had peak prices of €430 per ton of wheat; at the moment, the price is €220. So a moderate increase would be bearable.

    What role does the EU play in bread wheat?

    The EU exports significantly more bread wheat than Ukraine. It should now also be a matter of securing EU exports of cereals. The Commission should send a signal for the next harvest and extend the temporary suspension of the set-aside and crop rotation rules once again. This measure has helped to ensure that the EU harvest this year is no smaller than in 2022, and there may even be an increase of up to three percent.

    • Agricultural Policy
    • Agriculture
    • Cereals
    • GAP
    • Poland
    • Ukraine

    AI regulation: China’s fear of deepfakes

    Police authorities in the city of Baotou, Inner Mongolia, reported in May that a man was stolen the equivalent of 622,000 US dollars with the help of deepfake technology. A hacker had tricked him with a deceptively real AI clone of a friend who told him in a video call that he urgently needed money. This was not the naive victim of a grandparent scam. The victim is a senior executive at a tech company in Fuzhou. And yet, his fake friend’s lifelike body language and voice fooled him enough that he instantly pulled out his wallet.

    Lip-synchronous image and video fakes using artificial intelligence, so-called “deepfakes,” can be created with increasing ease thanks to growing computing power and storage capacities. The results, which can be generated with cheap software, are almost impossible to distinguish from the original for a layperson, as proven by fake speeches of politicians such as Putin or Trump. The technology is used, for example, to generate clickbait on the Internet, for example, by placing famous actors in movies in which they have never acted.

    Deepfake crimes increase rapidly

    Deepfake technology poses great dangers, for example when fake politicians’ speeches are taken at face value or used specifically in political smear campaigns. Digital identity theft is already being used on a massive scale for pornographic videos and increasingly also for blackmail.

    Worldwide, fraud cases involving deepfakes have increased massively in the past three years. This was calculated by Sumsub, a company specializing in AI security. Australia (5.3 percent), Argentina (5.1 percent) and China (4.9 percent) were particularly affected, accounting for the share of deepfakes in fraud crimes in 2022 and 2023.

    Deepfakes also cause massive economic damage

    Although the scammed tech executive from Inner Mongolia recovered most of his money with the help of police, the case sparked heated debates about online security in China. The Internet Society of China warned the public to be more vigilant. The fear of online fraud is far more real in China, where the media world is permeated by professional live streamers, than elsewhere. For example, the cases of unknown online influencers posing as celebrities on video sites such as Bilibili using faceswap technology to generate hits and money have increased in recent months.

    The music industry is also currently engaged in a fierce battle against the economic threats posed by deepfakes. For example, the FT reports that Universal Music is currently negotiating with Google about licensing artists’ melodies and voices for songs produced by third parties using artificial intelligence. Up to now, well-known voices and popular melodies have generally been used without the artists’ consent.

    Beijing requires labeling of AI-generated content

    Beijing rates deepfake technology as high-risk, not least because it can potentially undermine public order. In January, China’s Cyberspace Administration (CAC) enacted a series of regulations on what it called “deepfake technology.” Content that “endangers national security and national interests and damages the national image” is banned outright, according to the “Regulations on Deep Synthesis Internet Information Services.”

    The authority requires providers of more harmless content to “clearly label” AI-generated content, as it could otherwise “cause confusion among the public or lead to misidentification.” Users would have to be able to immediately distinguish authentic media content from fakes. Watermarks, for example, are mentioned. Failure to label such content is punishable as a criminal offense.

    All producers of deepfakes and users of deepfake services such as faceswap apps must also register with real names under the new rules. One rationale is that certain deepfakes will not be created in the first place, given the increased effort. This month, China’s Cyberspace Administration (CAC) also reiterated that all generative AI services must align with the party’s core socialist values.

    China is faster than EU with AI Act

    China is one of the first countries to introduce comprehensive rules for dealing with deepfake technology. Other countries, such as Taiwan, England, and several US states, such as Florida, are already taking legal action against certain sub-sectors, such as artificially created porn and forged political speeches. Elsewhere, work is underway to adapt existing regulations to the new threats, for example, in Singapore, where the Personal Data Protection Act (PDPA), which regulates the collection, use and disclosure of personal data, is being expanded to cover deepfake risks.

    The European Union also plans to limit deepfakes by introducing a set of rules on artificial intelligence, the “AI Act.” However, labeling relevant content will remain voluntary for the time being. Critics of this solution, such as SPD leader Saskia Esken, believe that this is not enough to prevent real damage.

    A cat-and-mouse game with deepfakes

    Swift action will be needed in any case. With constantly increasing bandwidths, it will soon be possible to not only fake people, but entire scenarios with such realism that it will be impossible to distinguish them from actual events. In his latest book, a future outlook into the year 2041, AI expert Kai-Fu Lee writes that anti-deepfake programs will soon be as common as anti-virus software.

    Both Facebook and Google have already offered rewards for the best deep fake detection software. But fakes will likely get better and better in the process, too. A cat-and-mouse game with an unknown outcome, Lee believes. He says we have to get used to a world in which we have to question everything on the Internet even more than we do today. This is one of the reasons why it simply won’t work without binding laws and appropriate penalties.

    • Artificial intelligence
    • Artificial Intelligence Regulation
    • China
    • Digital policy

    Events

    Aug. 14, 2023; online
    AI, Workshop US-German Forum Future Agriculture
    The Aspen Institute (AI) is developing recommendations for action to shape future agricultural policy. INFORMATION

    News

    Hydrogen Europe sees Germany as a hub

    In response to the EU Commission’s latest hydrogen study, industry association Hydrogen Europe stresses Germany’s role as the hub of a hydrogen market in Europe. “The study’s statement that virtually no capacities for electrolysis are needed in Germany is surprising only at first glance“, CEO Jorgo Chatzimarkakis told Table.Media on Wednesday.

    “If we look at the final conclusion that hydrogen can only be produced cost-effectively in Europe if there is a corresponding infrastructure for hydrogen, then Germany can particularly play out its advantages“, Chatzimarkakis is convinced. Berlin has sent clear signals to start building a hydrogen core network including storage facilities. Germany is thus already positioning itself for the scenario described in the study.

    “Moreover, as one of the main producers of electrolyzers, Germany will benefit massively from the EU’s internal market and the huge increase in demand for the technology. The more partnership-based the approach, the better for Germany”, said the Hydrogen Europe chairman.

    Grimm refers to resistance of French extreme right

    Criticism of the content of the Fraunhofer ISI study for the Directorate General for Energy came from economist Veronika Grimm, who is also a member of the German government’s National Hydrogen Council: “The scenario described in the study can only occur with very low electrolysis costs and an extremely high expansion of renewable energies in Europe. For France in particular, one may ask whether this is at all realistic, given the opposition of the extreme right to the expansion of wind power.”

    Grimm also criticized the study’s finding that Europe could supply itself most cost-effectively through domestic hydrogen production: “Particularly when importing hydrogen derivatives, it will be important to diversify wisely and not just buy from the cheapest supplier.” He added that it is also important to import products for which a global commodity market could emerge. “So it’s dangerous to suggest now that we don’t need to rely on imports”, Grimm said.

    Reiche insists on domestic production

    Imports from third countries are also part of the necessary triad for the chairwoman of the National Hydrogen Council, Katherina Reiche, in order to secure the required quantities for Germany: “We will only succeed if we dovetail three things: ramp up domestic production, build up the corresponding infrastructure and enter into long-term import partnerships. Germany needs international partnerships – in Europe and beyond.”

    For domestic production, she said, the German government also needs to put money in hand. “High energy prices will continue to keep the cost of electrolysis in Germany at a high level without government subsidies. National solutions are needed here”, says the CEO of Westenergie, a grid operator owned by Eon. ber

    Vestager cancels consultancy contract on digital monopolies

    The Commission has announced it will end a controversial contract with consultancy RBB Economics on EU competition policy. “Following the European Ombudsman’s opening of an inquiry into how the Commission assessed the risk of a potential professional conflict of interest in this contract award, the Commission informed RBB on July 27 of its intention to terminate the contract”, Commission Vice-President Margrethe Vestager wrote in a reply to a parliamentary question from two left-wing MEPs published on Tuesday.

    The Ombudsman’s investigation stems from a complaint by LobbyControl and Corporate Europe Observatory. LobbyControl considered the announcement on Wednesday a great success. “At the same time, the Commission must now ensure that something like this does not happen again in the future and therefore use the ongoing negotiations on financial regulation to significantly tighten the rules on conflicts of interest”, said campaigner Felix Duffy.

    Commission could now conduct study itself

    The background to this is a review of European competition policy launched in 2021 with the aim of reducing digital monopolies. RBB has been commissioned to conduct this study. However, the company had previously advised large corporations on competition issues – including Google, “in connection with the three fines imposed on the company by the Commission for anti-competitive behavior and abuse of a dominant position”, the parliamentarians José Gusmão and Marisa Matias criticized in their question.

    Noting that the Commission believes the study could be perceived as biased by certain stakeholders, Vestager now responded, “The termination of the contract will allow the Commission to complete the study either with the help of another contractor or solely with its own resources in a way that avoids the perception of lack of independence and objectivity.” ber

    Data Governance Act: logos for trusted data brokers

    Logo: In der EU anerkannter Datenvermittler

    Which data can I trust? To make this easier to recognize, the Commission has now introduced common logos. Using the protected trademarks, users in the EU can better identify recognized providers of data brokering services and data altruistic organizations. Data altruism means that an organization shares data voluntarily and without remuneration.

    The Commission’s aim is to contribute to transparency in the data market in this way. Both personal and non-personal data, public as well as secret data fall within the scope of the DGA. Where personal data is involved, the GDPR also applies.

    Data Governance Act: register coming in September

    The introduction of these logos via enforcement regulation is part of the implementation of the Data Governance Act. The DGA is a cross-sectoral instrument that aims to make more data available in the EU by increasing trust in data reuse and sharing. To this end, the Act encourages the introduction of new types of data intermediaries and promotes the sharing of data for socially desirable purposes. This includes, for example, data for research in the fields of health, the environment and mobility.

    Data intermediaries and organizations shall connect data owners (individuals or companies) with data users. Those that meet the conditions set forth in the DGA and choose to use the logos must clearly display them on every online and offline publication. In addition, the logo must be accompanied by a QR code. This contains a link to the EU public register of recognized data altruism organizations. The register will be available from Sept. 24, 2023. vis

    • European Commission

    Niger: EU prepares sanctions

    The European Union has begun preparing sanctions against members of the junta in Niger, sources told Reuters yesterday. The junta seized power in the West African country by force last month.

    An EU official in charge of sanctions and an EU diplomat said the EU has begun discussing the criteria for punitive measures. These include “undermining democracy” in Niger, the official said, and agreement would likely be reached soon. “The next step would be sanctions against individual members of the junta” deemed responsible, an EU diplomat said. National officials discussed the matter Wednesday, another EU diplomat said. All three sources spoke on condition of anonymity. The approval of all 27 EU member states is required to impose sanctions.

    Sanctions likely to be discussed at end of August

    Leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) planned to meet today after the deadline for the reinstatement of ousted Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum expired. “The EU stands ready to support ECOWAS decisions, including the adoption of sanctions”, said Peter Stano, spokesman for the European External Action Service (EEAS).

    EU foreign ministers are expected to discuss the situation in Niger, including sanctions, at a meeting in Toledo, Spain, on Aug. 31. The EU, one of the largest aid donors to Niger, had already said last month that it would suspend security cooperation and financial assistance. The country had been pledged €503 million for the period 2021 to 2024, mainly to improve governance and education.

    On Wednesday, former rebel leader and former minister Rhissa Ag Boula launched a movement against the junta, the first sign of internal resistance to army rule in Niger since the July 26 coup. rtr/lei

    Slovenia receives millions in aid

    The EU will provide Slovenia with at least €400 million to fight the consequences of the floods, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday. Devastating floods in the country have killed at least six people and affected tens of thousands of households.

    “We have a good package of immediate, medium- and long-term support for Slovenia“, von der Leyen said at a joint press conference with Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob during a visit to a flood-hit area.

    The Commission President said the country could also apply for help from the NextGenerationEU funding pot, from which Slovenia has €2.7 billion. In addition, €3.3 billion from other EU funds could be reallocated for immediate support after the floods, which have already been allocated to Slovenia, von der Leyen said. rtr

    Heads

    Nils Redeker – think tanker, economic expert, optimist

    As an economic expert and Vice Director of the Jacques Delors Centre for European Policy, Nils Redeker must provide answers before the questions arise.

    Nils Redeker is an optimist. He has no other choice. There are enough people who say why something can’t be done, he says. “There is nothing more pointless than a cynical think tank”, says the Vice Director of the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin. Founded in 2014, the think tank is a Berlin-based research institution affiliated with the private Hertie School in Berlin. The center combines scientific research in the field of European policy with the development of concrete ideas for the future.

    In 2019, when the institute became part of the Hertie School, Redeker took a position there as a policy fellow for European economic policy, rising to deputy director in 2022. Since then, he has advised the German government and the European Union on economic issues. Shortly after the energy crisis emerged, he worked closely with the German Ministry for Finance and foundations such as the European Climate Foundation. It’s a turbulent time, but one in which Redeker says there are many opportunities for progress: “The more things happen in the world, the more opportunities institutions like us have to contribute.” If there were no external shocks, many countries in Europe would remain stuck in their positions. “As experts in European policy, we have to try to surf very close to the political wave and have the answers ready even before the questions are asked by politicians.”

    Translator between Brussels and Berlin

    Redeker studied political science and economics in Berlin and London. In 2014, he wrote his doctoral thesis on macroeconomic imbalances in the eurozone at the University of Zurich. He was a Visiting Fellow at Harvard University, completed internships in the Bundestag, and wrote speeches for former German President Horst Köhler. The Jacques Delores Centre was then the ideal way for him to combine politics and science in one job, he says. “I also see myself as a ‘translator’ between the different levels in Europe”, says Redeker.

    In Berlin, he says, many political actors are unaware of what is institutionally possible at the European level, and in Brussels, people are often irritated by decisions made in Berlin. “Many underestimate how important such translation work is by us non-politicians”, says Redeker. “We can appear credible, without an agenda, and mediate between the actors.”

    How can you tell that Nils Redeker is actually an optimist? When asked what is going badly in Europe, he first and foremost emphasizes what is going well. “In the crises of recent years, one thing has become clear: When the house is on fire, we in Europe are good at delivering water.” What’s missing, however, is a truly long-term strategy for Europe’s economy, he says. Gregor Scheu

    Europe.Table Editorial Office

    EUROPE.TABLE EDITORS

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