The French presidency of the EU Council in January 2022 also brings the French presidential election closer. The incumbent president Emmanuel Macron has been conspicuously reticent so far: Officially, he is not yet a candidate. Tanja Kuchenbecker analyses the strategy behind this, takes a look at the issues Macron’s challengers are tackling and the chances of former Brexit chief negotiator Michel Barnier.
One thing is certain: Platform regulation will be a priority of the French EU Council Presidency. The French want to pass the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and the Digital Services Act (DSA) as quickly as possible. But while the positions in the Council are converging, the negotiations in the EU Parliament are stalling. The MEPs were nevertheless able to resolve one major point of contention yesterday.
Although the “Strategic Compass” will not be adopted until next year, EU foreign ministers already discussed a draft of the new foreign policy strategy at their meeting in Brussels yesterday. Eric Bonse reports on how the EU plans to defend itself against cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and other “hybrid threats”.
The so-called “Strategic Compass” was drawn up by the European External Action Service (EEAS); to be adopted in March 2022. Until then, numerous changes to the 32-page draft are to be expected, according to Brussels Council circles.
However, it is already clear that the EU wants to expand its capacities in the area of information technology and the Internet. For it is precisely here – in a foreign policy “new territory” – that EU diplomats have identified a particularly large number of new dangers.
“Europe is in danger” is how High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell sums up his analysis. The line between war and peace has become blurred. In addition to disinformation and cyberattacks, he cites the control of sensitive technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computers as examples.
In all these areas, the EU must take action itself to not risk a “strategic loss of importance”. The “Compass” lists some examples. In the field of AI, in addition to new “intelligent” combat aircraft and systems, the development of unmanned floating platforms is planned to monitor seas over large areas.
In the area of “cyberspace”, which, like oceans and space, is identified as a new field of conflict, the EU plans to develop defensive and offensive capabilities. Both the military and civilian sectors are to contribute to this. A new “cyber-industrial ecosystem” is mentioned as a goal:
“In the area of cybersecurity, we will swiftly operationalize the European Cybersecurity Competence Centre to develop a strong European cyber industrial ecosystem, support companies specializing in cybersecurity, and further increase cybersecurity and cyberdefense skills at EU level.” – Draft Strategic Compass, page 23
According to the EEAS, we must not only be better prepared for cyberattacks but also be able to defend against them and even strike back. The draft strategy speaks of “protect, detect, defend and deter”. The goal is to react “decisively” to cyberattacks – and not only (as before) with sanctions (Europe.Table reported).
This refers primarily to Russia, which is also repeatedly addressed in the topic of disinformation. “Hybrid tactics, cyberattacks, and disinformation are part of the reality of dealing with Russia,” the strategy says. However, this should not be seen as a historical inevitability, the EU experts say.
The EU was bound to Russia by “common interests and shared values” and would therefore also strive for a rapprochement in areas such as climate protection. However, “aggressive acts” must be dealt with decisively. A separate department has already been set up in the EEAS to combat disinformation, but much remains to be done in the area of cyberdefense. And the member states remain responsible in principle.
President Emmanuel Macron is keeping a low profile and has not yet officially announced his candidacy for the presidential election next April 10th and 24th. Nevertheless, Macron is the potential candidate around whom everything revolves. No one can get past him. There is no doubt in France that he will run again. In the background, Macron, who is at the center of the political spectrum, is already pulling the strings for re-election.
“Le Figaro” already wrote about his “secret plan for the 2022 campaign”. All over the country, Macron supporters are already campaigning for him behind the scenes. They are supposed to cover all regions of France, cities and rural areas, and mobilize regional politicians. They are being offered the chance to work democratically on the election program.
Macron wants to remain visible as president for as long as possible, and that’s why he’s not yet entering the election campaign himself. Political scientist Dominique Reynié explained why the incumbent president is nevertheless already the favorite: “His crisis management in the pandemic is viewed positively. And he is committed to Europe, the French like that.” They are very attached to the euro and their purchasing power, Reynié said.
The 43-year-old Macron will campaign during France’s EU Council presidency, which begins in January, and will highlight his European achievements and plans. The pro-European is also campaigning for a strong France in the EU. Recently, he again held out the prospect of subsidies for domestic industry with his France 2030 investment plan. He is trying to steer the campaign theme more towards economics, where his strength lies away from immigration and security, which have already been major issues for the right. He also spoke out in favor of more climate neutrality through nuclear power.
The far-right Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National (RN) is clearly positioning herself against Macron. The 53-year-old revisits the antagonisms that defined the 2017 election campaign, saying the French have a choice between a “cold globalist” (Macron) and a defender of the nation. “In recent times, the fronts have crystallized,” Paul Maurice, political scientist at the Ifri research institute for international relations, pointed out in the interview: “President Emmanuel Macron cemented the division of sentiments into globalists and pro-Europeans on the one hand, and nationalists on the other, to make his position clear to Marine Le Pen.”
Le Pen is campaigning on the theme of “freedoms, beloved freedoms” and reproaches Macron for having restricted freedoms too much in the pandemic. She is fighting for more French sovereignty but is no longer proclaiming an exit from the EU and the euro, which scared off potential voters in the last presidential election. She also wants to nationalize highways and more nuclear power. Macron’s confidants hope that he will run against Le Pen again in the runoff election in order to repeat the victory of 2017.
But for some weeks now, the Islamophobic TV star Eric Zemmour has been attracting attention and, according to some polls, could even get more votes than Le Pen. The 63-year-old Zemmour has no program and no party – and has not yet officially registered as a candidate. According to French media, he apparently plans to do so in late November. He is concerned with national identity, caters to Islamophobia, and wants to ban foreign first names. He calls for an end to immigration. He also doesn’t want a Frexit because he considers it too much of an economic insecurity.
Consistently, Macron places himself ahead in the polls at around 25 percent in the first round of voting. Zemmour is in a head-to-head race with Le Pen. Polls even saw him in second place with around 17-18 percent of the vote, ahead of Le Pen with 16 percent. But in recent polls, he has dropped back down to 14 percent, while Le Pen has caught up, reaching 17-18 percent.
If Zemmour makes it to the runoff, Macron could get 58 percent and Zemmour 42 percent, according to a Harris Interactive poll. Against Le Pen, Macron could win 55 percent versus 45 percent. It is also conceivable that another conservative could pass the two, the most difficult option for Macron in the runoff. Pollsters are constantly testing candidates barely six months before the election. Ifop demoscope Frédéric Dabi said, “The uncertainty for the runoff is high.”
Experts observed that France had seen a shift to the right since 2015. “If you take the total, candidates from left-wing parties are around 25 percent,” Dabi said. Assassinations and the immigration wave have accelerated the shift to the right in France. The two far-right candidates are joined on the right spectrum by votes for the conservatives.
They could get between 9 and 14 percent, depending on who runs. The former Brexit chief negotiator Michel Barnier has the least chances. Valérie Pécresse, president of the Ile-de-France region around Paris, is in the middle with 10-11 percent and Xavier Bertrand, president of the Hauts-de-France region and former labor minister, is in first place. Bertrand, 56, was also tested against Macron in polls. According to them, Macron would win with 54 versus 46 percent in the runoff.
The Conservatives, however, have not yet determined their candidate. That is planned for December 4th at a party meeting. Their programs are similar: Security, immigration, pensions, and energy issues play a major role, and they present themselves as pro-European. Conservatives find themselves squeezed between Macron, who also attracts moderate right-wing voters, and the extreme right fringe of Le Pen and Zemmour. The field is small. The daily Le Monde, therefore, analyzed: “The 2022 elections are existential for the conservatives.” Once again, the future of a major popular party is at stake.
The Socialists have already seen how a once-great party goes down. After Socialist President François Hollande, things went steeply downhill. The 62-year-old Socialist mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, declared her candidacy in September. But she can’t quite get off the ground, with polls showing her bobbing along at 5-6 percent. Her range of issues is between green and social. She fights against car emissions, advocates bicycle lanes, and wants to build more social housing.
The daughter of Spanish immigrants said, “I want all the children of France to have the same opportunity that I got.” She accused Macron of dividing society. Her problem: Her policies in Paris, where she has been mayor since 2014, have many supporters but also many critics who say the city is dirty and unsafe. She’s also too entrenched in Paris, even though she’s been touring the country for weeks to make up for that shortcoming. The Socialists are encouraged by the strengthened position of the Social Democrats in France.
Hidalgo had hoped to win over the Greens, but with Yannick Jadot (54), they’ve put up their own candidate, and the climate debate is playing into his hands. The French Greens are not in favor of phasing out nuclear power immediately, only in about 20 years’ time. Jadot sees nuclear power as a transitional solution before renewable energies are better developed. He is currently polling at around 7-8 percent. Left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon is doing slightly better with 9 percent. According to polls, voters of Jadot and Hidalgo could even switch to Macron in the first round to vote “useful” and stop the extreme right, according to a study by the Jean-Jaures Foundation. In any case, competition for Macron from the left spectrum seems highly unlikely at the moment. Tanja Kuchenbecker
Susanne Dehmel has been a member of the management board of the industry association Bitkom for seven years and is responsible for key areas for the association and its members, such as law, security, and artificial intelligence. The topics, currently especially AI, bring with them many points of contact with the ongoing discussions in Brussels. “In our opinion, both national policy-makers in Germany and those at the European level have a duty to advocate the responsible use of AI in business, the public sector, and society,” says Dehmel.
In terms of legislation, the European proposal for an AI regulation, the “AI Act”, is a key project. This would give Europe the chance to take on a global pioneering role, says Dehmel. It would be about the regulatory framework for human-centered AI without at the same time nipping innovation in the bud. Bitkom has members from the very big players in the industry, but some come from the SME or startup milieu. “Small companies and startups, in particular, need breathing room when developing new AI applications and business models based on them. If they are overburdened with too many formal requirements, innovation will be slowed down,” Dehmel says.
When asked why she decided to pursue a career in an association instead of a law firm after studying law in Passau, Freiburg, and Cardiff, she answers: “I was initially attracted by the topic of copyright law, which is why I joined Bitkom, and also by the mixture of political work and contract negotiations.” For her, it is exciting to explore the extent to which existing legislation can be applied to new issues that arise when using digital technologies.
For her work on AI-relevant topics, she, as a non-specialist, also has to fundamentally penetrate the technological details. “For that, I don’t need to know every detail, but at least keep an eye on the broad functionalities, modes of action, and relevant trends,” she says. She was also able to apply this knowledge and the combination of technological and legal understanding to her work as an expert member of the German Bundestag’s AI Enquête from 2018 to 2020.
While Dehmel has deep knowledge of the regulatory risks of AI technologies, companies don’t take that for granted. A study by consulting giant McKinsey said less than half of all companies working in the AI sphere were aware of these risks. “With our members, we have discussed the upcoming proposals from the European Commission and will continue to work hard on them,” Dehmel explains. “By discussing concrete use cases, we try to make tangible what impact this regulation will have on business activities.”
For her, as a lawyer, the issue of legal certainty is paramount. “The devil is in the detail here. In our opinion, for example, the definition of AI is far too broad. We recommend focusing on the narrow scope of self-learning systems in Machine Learning and Deep Learning. Simple statistical methods, statistical inference, and deductive methods should not fall under the AI Act,” Dehmel said. Moreover, it is still unclear how exactly it should be proven whether an AI application complies with the regulatory intentions. Therefore, her conclusion is that the actual legal practice in everyday life will decide whether the AI Act will be a success or not. As a specialist, she, therefore, continues to have her hands full. Constantin Eckner
The French presidency of the EU Council in January 2022 also brings the French presidential election closer. The incumbent president Emmanuel Macron has been conspicuously reticent so far: Officially, he is not yet a candidate. Tanja Kuchenbecker analyses the strategy behind this, takes a look at the issues Macron’s challengers are tackling and the chances of former Brexit chief negotiator Michel Barnier.
One thing is certain: Platform regulation will be a priority of the French EU Council Presidency. The French want to pass the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and the Digital Services Act (DSA) as quickly as possible. But while the positions in the Council are converging, the negotiations in the EU Parliament are stalling. The MEPs were nevertheless able to resolve one major point of contention yesterday.
Although the “Strategic Compass” will not be adopted until next year, EU foreign ministers already discussed a draft of the new foreign policy strategy at their meeting in Brussels yesterday. Eric Bonse reports on how the EU plans to defend itself against cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and other “hybrid threats”.
The so-called “Strategic Compass” was drawn up by the European External Action Service (EEAS); to be adopted in March 2022. Until then, numerous changes to the 32-page draft are to be expected, according to Brussels Council circles.
However, it is already clear that the EU wants to expand its capacities in the area of information technology and the Internet. For it is precisely here – in a foreign policy “new territory” – that EU diplomats have identified a particularly large number of new dangers.
“Europe is in danger” is how High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell sums up his analysis. The line between war and peace has become blurred. In addition to disinformation and cyberattacks, he cites the control of sensitive technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computers as examples.
In all these areas, the EU must take action itself to not risk a “strategic loss of importance”. The “Compass” lists some examples. In the field of AI, in addition to new “intelligent” combat aircraft and systems, the development of unmanned floating platforms is planned to monitor seas over large areas.
In the area of “cyberspace”, which, like oceans and space, is identified as a new field of conflict, the EU plans to develop defensive and offensive capabilities. Both the military and civilian sectors are to contribute to this. A new “cyber-industrial ecosystem” is mentioned as a goal:
“In the area of cybersecurity, we will swiftly operationalize the European Cybersecurity Competence Centre to develop a strong European cyber industrial ecosystem, support companies specializing in cybersecurity, and further increase cybersecurity and cyberdefense skills at EU level.” – Draft Strategic Compass, page 23
According to the EEAS, we must not only be better prepared for cyberattacks but also be able to defend against them and even strike back. The draft strategy speaks of “protect, detect, defend and deter”. The goal is to react “decisively” to cyberattacks – and not only (as before) with sanctions (Europe.Table reported).
This refers primarily to Russia, which is also repeatedly addressed in the topic of disinformation. “Hybrid tactics, cyberattacks, and disinformation are part of the reality of dealing with Russia,” the strategy says. However, this should not be seen as a historical inevitability, the EU experts say.
The EU was bound to Russia by “common interests and shared values” and would therefore also strive for a rapprochement in areas such as climate protection. However, “aggressive acts” must be dealt with decisively. A separate department has already been set up in the EEAS to combat disinformation, but much remains to be done in the area of cyberdefense. And the member states remain responsible in principle.
President Emmanuel Macron is keeping a low profile and has not yet officially announced his candidacy for the presidential election next April 10th and 24th. Nevertheless, Macron is the potential candidate around whom everything revolves. No one can get past him. There is no doubt in France that he will run again. In the background, Macron, who is at the center of the political spectrum, is already pulling the strings for re-election.
“Le Figaro” already wrote about his “secret plan for the 2022 campaign”. All over the country, Macron supporters are already campaigning for him behind the scenes. They are supposed to cover all regions of France, cities and rural areas, and mobilize regional politicians. They are being offered the chance to work democratically on the election program.
Macron wants to remain visible as president for as long as possible, and that’s why he’s not yet entering the election campaign himself. Political scientist Dominique Reynié explained why the incumbent president is nevertheless already the favorite: “His crisis management in the pandemic is viewed positively. And he is committed to Europe, the French like that.” They are very attached to the euro and their purchasing power, Reynié said.
The 43-year-old Macron will campaign during France’s EU Council presidency, which begins in January, and will highlight his European achievements and plans. The pro-European is also campaigning for a strong France in the EU. Recently, he again held out the prospect of subsidies for domestic industry with his France 2030 investment plan. He is trying to steer the campaign theme more towards economics, where his strength lies away from immigration and security, which have already been major issues for the right. He also spoke out in favor of more climate neutrality through nuclear power.
The far-right Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National (RN) is clearly positioning herself against Macron. The 53-year-old revisits the antagonisms that defined the 2017 election campaign, saying the French have a choice between a “cold globalist” (Macron) and a defender of the nation. “In recent times, the fronts have crystallized,” Paul Maurice, political scientist at the Ifri research institute for international relations, pointed out in the interview: “President Emmanuel Macron cemented the division of sentiments into globalists and pro-Europeans on the one hand, and nationalists on the other, to make his position clear to Marine Le Pen.”
Le Pen is campaigning on the theme of “freedoms, beloved freedoms” and reproaches Macron for having restricted freedoms too much in the pandemic. She is fighting for more French sovereignty but is no longer proclaiming an exit from the EU and the euro, which scared off potential voters in the last presidential election. She also wants to nationalize highways and more nuclear power. Macron’s confidants hope that he will run against Le Pen again in the runoff election in order to repeat the victory of 2017.
But for some weeks now, the Islamophobic TV star Eric Zemmour has been attracting attention and, according to some polls, could even get more votes than Le Pen. The 63-year-old Zemmour has no program and no party – and has not yet officially registered as a candidate. According to French media, he apparently plans to do so in late November. He is concerned with national identity, caters to Islamophobia, and wants to ban foreign first names. He calls for an end to immigration. He also doesn’t want a Frexit because he considers it too much of an economic insecurity.
Consistently, Macron places himself ahead in the polls at around 25 percent in the first round of voting. Zemmour is in a head-to-head race with Le Pen. Polls even saw him in second place with around 17-18 percent of the vote, ahead of Le Pen with 16 percent. But in recent polls, he has dropped back down to 14 percent, while Le Pen has caught up, reaching 17-18 percent.
If Zemmour makes it to the runoff, Macron could get 58 percent and Zemmour 42 percent, according to a Harris Interactive poll. Against Le Pen, Macron could win 55 percent versus 45 percent. It is also conceivable that another conservative could pass the two, the most difficult option for Macron in the runoff. Pollsters are constantly testing candidates barely six months before the election. Ifop demoscope Frédéric Dabi said, “The uncertainty for the runoff is high.”
Experts observed that France had seen a shift to the right since 2015. “If you take the total, candidates from left-wing parties are around 25 percent,” Dabi said. Assassinations and the immigration wave have accelerated the shift to the right in France. The two far-right candidates are joined on the right spectrum by votes for the conservatives.
They could get between 9 and 14 percent, depending on who runs. The former Brexit chief negotiator Michel Barnier has the least chances. Valérie Pécresse, president of the Ile-de-France region around Paris, is in the middle with 10-11 percent and Xavier Bertrand, president of the Hauts-de-France region and former labor minister, is in first place. Bertrand, 56, was also tested against Macron in polls. According to them, Macron would win with 54 versus 46 percent in the runoff.
The Conservatives, however, have not yet determined their candidate. That is planned for December 4th at a party meeting. Their programs are similar: Security, immigration, pensions, and energy issues play a major role, and they present themselves as pro-European. Conservatives find themselves squeezed between Macron, who also attracts moderate right-wing voters, and the extreme right fringe of Le Pen and Zemmour. The field is small. The daily Le Monde, therefore, analyzed: “The 2022 elections are existential for the conservatives.” Once again, the future of a major popular party is at stake.
The Socialists have already seen how a once-great party goes down. After Socialist President François Hollande, things went steeply downhill. The 62-year-old Socialist mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, declared her candidacy in September. But she can’t quite get off the ground, with polls showing her bobbing along at 5-6 percent. Her range of issues is between green and social. She fights against car emissions, advocates bicycle lanes, and wants to build more social housing.
The daughter of Spanish immigrants said, “I want all the children of France to have the same opportunity that I got.” She accused Macron of dividing society. Her problem: Her policies in Paris, where she has been mayor since 2014, have many supporters but also many critics who say the city is dirty and unsafe. She’s also too entrenched in Paris, even though she’s been touring the country for weeks to make up for that shortcoming. The Socialists are encouraged by the strengthened position of the Social Democrats in France.
Hidalgo had hoped to win over the Greens, but with Yannick Jadot (54), they’ve put up their own candidate, and the climate debate is playing into his hands. The French Greens are not in favor of phasing out nuclear power immediately, only in about 20 years’ time. Jadot sees nuclear power as a transitional solution before renewable energies are better developed. He is currently polling at around 7-8 percent. Left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon is doing slightly better with 9 percent. According to polls, voters of Jadot and Hidalgo could even switch to Macron in the first round to vote “useful” and stop the extreme right, according to a study by the Jean-Jaures Foundation. In any case, competition for Macron from the left spectrum seems highly unlikely at the moment. Tanja Kuchenbecker
Susanne Dehmel has been a member of the management board of the industry association Bitkom for seven years and is responsible for key areas for the association and its members, such as law, security, and artificial intelligence. The topics, currently especially AI, bring with them many points of contact with the ongoing discussions in Brussels. “In our opinion, both national policy-makers in Germany and those at the European level have a duty to advocate the responsible use of AI in business, the public sector, and society,” says Dehmel.
In terms of legislation, the European proposal for an AI regulation, the “AI Act”, is a key project. This would give Europe the chance to take on a global pioneering role, says Dehmel. It would be about the regulatory framework for human-centered AI without at the same time nipping innovation in the bud. Bitkom has members from the very big players in the industry, but some come from the SME or startup milieu. “Small companies and startups, in particular, need breathing room when developing new AI applications and business models based on them. If they are overburdened with too many formal requirements, innovation will be slowed down,” Dehmel says.
When asked why she decided to pursue a career in an association instead of a law firm after studying law in Passau, Freiburg, and Cardiff, she answers: “I was initially attracted by the topic of copyright law, which is why I joined Bitkom, and also by the mixture of political work and contract negotiations.” For her, it is exciting to explore the extent to which existing legislation can be applied to new issues that arise when using digital technologies.
For her work on AI-relevant topics, she, as a non-specialist, also has to fundamentally penetrate the technological details. “For that, I don’t need to know every detail, but at least keep an eye on the broad functionalities, modes of action, and relevant trends,” she says. She was also able to apply this knowledge and the combination of technological and legal understanding to her work as an expert member of the German Bundestag’s AI Enquête from 2018 to 2020.
While Dehmel has deep knowledge of the regulatory risks of AI technologies, companies don’t take that for granted. A study by consulting giant McKinsey said less than half of all companies working in the AI sphere were aware of these risks. “With our members, we have discussed the upcoming proposals from the European Commission and will continue to work hard on them,” Dehmel explains. “By discussing concrete use cases, we try to make tangible what impact this regulation will have on business activities.”
For her, as a lawyer, the issue of legal certainty is paramount. “The devil is in the detail here. In our opinion, for example, the definition of AI is far too broad. We recommend focusing on the narrow scope of self-learning systems in Machine Learning and Deep Learning. Simple statistical methods, statistical inference, and deductive methods should not fall under the AI Act,” Dehmel said. Moreover, it is still unclear how exactly it should be proven whether an AI application complies with the regulatory intentions. Therefore, her conclusion is that the actual legal practice in everyday life will decide whether the AI Act will be a success or not. As a specialist, she, therefore, continues to have her hands full. Constantin Eckner
