France has voted. The first round of the parliamentary elections is over. Claire Stam summarizes the results and reactions for you and takes a look ahead to the second round of voting next Sunday. Parties taking part in the run-off will now try to forge local alliances to win supporters for their candidates.
Another election is already casting its shadow. The US election could have a decisive influence on the Hungarian Council Presidency, which starts today – especially in terms of international climate policy at COP29, as you can read in our feature.
Speaking of Hungary: remarkable news came out of Budapest on Sunday. Victor Orbán’s Fidesz party wants to form a group of right-wing populists in the European Parliament with the Austrian FPÖ and the Czech ANO. Read more in the news.
Emmanuel Macron’s political calculations did not pay off. With 21 percent of the vote, his party “Ensemble pour la République” only came third. This puts it behind the left-wing alliance “Nouveau Front Populaire” (NFP) with 28.1 percent and the far-right election winner “Rassemblement National” (RN) with 33.2 percent. Macron’s defeat weighs all the more heavily as the voter turnout was very high: 67.5 percent. In 2022, it was significantly lower at 46.5 percent.
By dissolving the National Assembly directly after the European elections, Macron wanted to position his party as the only “bulwark against the RN.” A strategy with which he won the last two presidential elections in 2017 and 2022. The results of the first round of the parliamentary elections show exactly the opposite: the RN is the big winner of these elections. Macron’s “ensemble” no longer seems capable of taking the reins. Although Macron remains President of the Republic, he will have a Prime Minister who comes from either the RN or the NFP. France will therefore have a so-called “coalition government.”
“It’s a clear vote,” said Marine Le Pen, former leader of the RN parliamentary group. The election result meant “the end of power” for Macron, who she described as “arrogant” and “aggressive.” Clémentine Autain, MP for the French left, also called it a “crushing defeat” for Macron’s camp. He was not a bulwark against the extreme right, but was becoming a free rider for the RN. “We have one week to prevent the far right from coming to power. It’s either them or us.”
The second round on July 7 could be decided primarily between the right-wing RN and the left-wing NFP. The two candidates in a constituency with the most votes in the first round will advance to the second round. However, a third candidate can also make it to the run-off if he or she has at least 12.5 percent of the registered voters. In the second round, the candidate with the most votes wins, even if they do not receive more than 50 percent of the votes. In most constituencies, three candidates face each other, but in some only two – mostly from the RN and the NFP.
The RN’s goal is an absolute majority, i.e. 289 out of 577 seats. Most recently, the right-wing populists held 89 seats in the National Assembly. The opinion research institutes in France presented different seat forecasts on Sunday evening. They all see a relative majority for the RN and some also an absolute majority – between 230 and 280 seats. The NFP could therefore win between 125 and 165 seats and Macron’s ensemble between 70 and 100 seats.
In the second round of voting, the third-placed candidates could now vacate their seats, giving the second-placed candidates a better chance of winning. Macron has already called for a “broad, democratic and republican alliance.” Candidates from his party would step down in favor of those who are able to beat the RN. The leaders of some parties in the NFP alliance also declared that they would withdraw candidates to enable a victory over the RN.
Democratic parties must take a stand against the RN to prevent the worst from happening, demanded René Repasi, chairman of the European SPD. “The fear that the RN could be able to govern or paralyze France and thus slowly but surely destroy the EU is real.”
This first round of elections confirms that Macron’s room for maneuver on the European stage is severely limited. The French President must have foreseen the election defeat, as he had already announced his intention to send Thierry Breton to Brussels for another term as France’s EU Commissioner. He had emphasized that it was his prerogative to nominate a person.
However, RN leader Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen are questioning this and want to send their own candidate to Berlaymont. Another election victory in the second round could underline these claims and turn Macron’s “prerogative” into a desperate attempt to maintain influence in Brussels.
“Make Europe Great Again” – that is the slogan Hungary has chosen for its six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union. It began this week. The formula is of course cribbed from former US President Donald Trump, who has a good chance of winning the next US elections in November. That is, during the Hungarian presidency.
However, Budapest sees no allusion in this. “As far as I know, Donald Trump never wanted to make Europe strong,” explains Hungarian EU ambassador Balint Odor. “Our motto refers to the idea of an active and down-to-earth presidency, to the fact that we are stronger together while preserving our identity.”
The Green Deal has never been at the top of Hungary’s list of priorities in recent years. However, EU agricultural policy is now playing a surprisingly important role during the Council Presidency. Agriculture is one of the seven priorities of the Hungarian EU Council Presidency – alongside competitiveness, defense, enlargement, immigration, cohesion policy and demography. According to its statements, Budapest wants to return sovereignty over food issues to the EU and, in particular, defend food safety. Two parameters that should contribute to strengthening the EU’s strategic autonomy, explains the diplomat.
Farmers must be seen as the solutions to global warming and not the problem, demands Odor. Budapest thus wants to use the transitional phase until the new EU Commission is formed to pre-formulate the rules for EU agricultural policy after 2027 to ensure “competitive, crisis-proof and farmer-friendly agriculture.”
The Hungarian EU Council Presidency is taking place at a critical time: while the EU Commission and Parliament are being re-staffed. “Over the next few months, the EU institutions will focus on the distribution of posts and the appointment of the new Commission, which will reduce legislative activity,” summarizes Linda Kalcher, Director of the Strategic Perspectives think tank.
In this crucial phase, the European toolbox offers a range of options. “The Council Presidency determines what is put on the negotiating table, what priorities it sets, it can delay certain issues and push others forward,” explains Manon Dufour, Head of the Brussels office of the E3G think tank. “Hungary can use these levers at the Environment Council in October.” This is where the positions of the EU member states for COP29 in Baku and the emissions reduction target for 2040 are to be determined.
Hungary can therefore exert massive influence on these crucial issues. They will not be able to help shape the individual pieces of legislation for the EU’s 2040 climate target – the Commission does not want to present these until 2026. However, the basic numerical reduction target is to be set either by the ministers or by the heads of state and government at the summit in December with Hungarian participation. The Commission and some member states are calling for 90 percent; Budapest is considered less ambitious.
At COP29, the European contribution to global climate financing will be the most sensitive issue that Hungary will have to deal with, observes Manon Dufour. Which countries will pay and which countries will receive funds for climate change adaptation and emission reduction in the future – this question and the amount of climate finance are the most crucial issues in Baku. “At the European level, a decision by the finance ministers in the Ecofin Council is required here and this must be coordinated by the Hungarian Presidency.”
According to Dufour, it is completely open how the Hungarian EU Council Presidency will position itself here. Especially if Donald Trump is re-elected in November. The USA is the most hesitant industrialized nation when it comes to financing climate protection. This is unlikely to change under Trump – rather the opposite. “It is clear that the EU does not want to be the only contributor to climate financing,” says the E3G climate expert.
At COP29, Hungary will chair the negotiations for the EU member states as Council President. A lack of coordination by Budapest could weaken Europe’s role, warns Dufour. Other influential EU ministers and the Climate Commissioner could therefore take on more responsibility instead of Hungary, which is weak in terms of climate policy. Linda Kalcher is convinced that Teresa Ribera from Spain, Dan Jørgensen from Denmark, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and her State Secretary Jennifer Morgan could take on this role.
Dufour and Kalcher both warn of a “new dynamic” at COP29 due to a climate-skeptic axis consisting of Hungary, the USA and China. “We will have to wait and see how Budapest reacts if Donald Trump is re-elected,” says Kalcher. As Hungary has planned an informal Council meeting for November 7 and 8, i.e. immediately after the US elections, she believes that the impact of the US elections on the EU will be discussed there.
When Cornelia Ernst tackles something, she does so with absolute conviction and full commitment. You can always hear the absolute desire to assert her positions in her words. She does not hide this characteristic, calling herself “fanatical when it comes to justice.” With this conviction, she has worked for the Left in the European Parliament for the past 15 years, in the delegation for Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina, in the Industry Committee and in the delegation for Iran. From 2009 to 2019, she was Vice-Chairwoman; in the last legislative period, she chaired the delegation.
However, Cornelia Ernst actually had completely different plans as a child than to go into politics. “At the age of three, I already knew that I wanted to be a teacher,” she says. After graduating with a degree in education, she worked as a teacher trainer at the Institute for Teacher Training in Großenhain, Saxony, until 1991. During this time, she discovered the power of protest when, together with students, she was able to save an institution at the university.
When the director of the institute, Brigitte Zschoche, moved on to the state parliament in 1991, Ernst joined her as a member of staff. Experiences of injustice following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 also had a major influence on the 67-year-old’s political career. “The stories of the fall of the Berlin Wall washed me into politics,” says Ernst today. In her opinion, there was too much talk about Berlin during this time, while other East German regions were neglected.
Ultimately, it was asylum policy that brought Cornelia Ernst to Europe. After “securing the right to stay for many people from Yugoslavia” in Saxony in the 1990s, it was clear to her that she wanted to tackle the issue “once again, on a larger scale.”
Over the past 15 years in Brussels and Strasbourg, the left-wing politician has become “radicalized” on asylum policy issues, as she says herself. The reason for this is the “misanthropic policy,” which she accuses those who “keep putting up barriers so that people cannot come to us, even though they are exposed to terrible conditions.” This also includes the Common European Asylum System (CEAS).
Europe’s Iran policy also leaves her frustrated in some cases. The Chair of the EU Parliament delegation defends Josep Borrell. “I think it is right that he is trying to keep a foot in the door,” says Ernst. Although sanctions against the regime are “unavoidable,” they should not be the only means.
Rather, the release of the remaining prisoners in the country and support for civil society and opposition members should play a greater role. Because: “We will never be able to topple the regime from the outside,” explains Ernst. While the country had already turned to Russia and China politically and economically years ago, the majority of the local population continued to turn to the West.
The EU must make use of this in the future: Especially after Iran’s attack on Israel, “we must of course clearly state what we think of this regime in the current situation.” Nevertheless, it would be counterproductive to break off all contacts with Iran. At the same time, Cornelia Ernst is calling for a strengthening of the EU Parliament’s links to the opposition in Iran, for example with the help of an advisory board. “That is what we can actually do in the current situation,” she says.
In the long term, she would like to see a model along the lines of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, which managed the East-West conflict in the 1970s. “We need a similar institution that gradually brings about normalization in the Middle East,” says Ernst.
She will not be available for such efforts herself. She is withdrawing from European politics. Instead, she wants to help rebuild her party, the Left. “They need my support the most right now,” says Ernst. Jasper Bennink
France has voted. The first round of the parliamentary elections is over. Claire Stam summarizes the results and reactions for you and takes a look ahead to the second round of voting next Sunday. Parties taking part in the run-off will now try to forge local alliances to win supporters for their candidates.
Another election is already casting its shadow. The US election could have a decisive influence on the Hungarian Council Presidency, which starts today – especially in terms of international climate policy at COP29, as you can read in our feature.
Speaking of Hungary: remarkable news came out of Budapest on Sunday. Victor Orbán’s Fidesz party wants to form a group of right-wing populists in the European Parliament with the Austrian FPÖ and the Czech ANO. Read more in the news.
Emmanuel Macron’s political calculations did not pay off. With 21 percent of the vote, his party “Ensemble pour la République” only came third. This puts it behind the left-wing alliance “Nouveau Front Populaire” (NFP) with 28.1 percent and the far-right election winner “Rassemblement National” (RN) with 33.2 percent. Macron’s defeat weighs all the more heavily as the voter turnout was very high: 67.5 percent. In 2022, it was significantly lower at 46.5 percent.
By dissolving the National Assembly directly after the European elections, Macron wanted to position his party as the only “bulwark against the RN.” A strategy with which he won the last two presidential elections in 2017 and 2022. The results of the first round of the parliamentary elections show exactly the opposite: the RN is the big winner of these elections. Macron’s “ensemble” no longer seems capable of taking the reins. Although Macron remains President of the Republic, he will have a Prime Minister who comes from either the RN or the NFP. France will therefore have a so-called “coalition government.”
“It’s a clear vote,” said Marine Le Pen, former leader of the RN parliamentary group. The election result meant “the end of power” for Macron, who she described as “arrogant” and “aggressive.” Clémentine Autain, MP for the French left, also called it a “crushing defeat” for Macron’s camp. He was not a bulwark against the extreme right, but was becoming a free rider for the RN. “We have one week to prevent the far right from coming to power. It’s either them or us.”
The second round on July 7 could be decided primarily between the right-wing RN and the left-wing NFP. The two candidates in a constituency with the most votes in the first round will advance to the second round. However, a third candidate can also make it to the run-off if he or she has at least 12.5 percent of the registered voters. In the second round, the candidate with the most votes wins, even if they do not receive more than 50 percent of the votes. In most constituencies, three candidates face each other, but in some only two – mostly from the RN and the NFP.
The RN’s goal is an absolute majority, i.e. 289 out of 577 seats. Most recently, the right-wing populists held 89 seats in the National Assembly. The opinion research institutes in France presented different seat forecasts on Sunday evening. They all see a relative majority for the RN and some also an absolute majority – between 230 and 280 seats. The NFP could therefore win between 125 and 165 seats and Macron’s ensemble between 70 and 100 seats.
In the second round of voting, the third-placed candidates could now vacate their seats, giving the second-placed candidates a better chance of winning. Macron has already called for a “broad, democratic and republican alliance.” Candidates from his party would step down in favor of those who are able to beat the RN. The leaders of some parties in the NFP alliance also declared that they would withdraw candidates to enable a victory over the RN.
Democratic parties must take a stand against the RN to prevent the worst from happening, demanded René Repasi, chairman of the European SPD. “The fear that the RN could be able to govern or paralyze France and thus slowly but surely destroy the EU is real.”
This first round of elections confirms that Macron’s room for maneuver on the European stage is severely limited. The French President must have foreseen the election defeat, as he had already announced his intention to send Thierry Breton to Brussels for another term as France’s EU Commissioner. He had emphasized that it was his prerogative to nominate a person.
However, RN leader Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen are questioning this and want to send their own candidate to Berlaymont. Another election victory in the second round could underline these claims and turn Macron’s “prerogative” into a desperate attempt to maintain influence in Brussels.
“Make Europe Great Again” – that is the slogan Hungary has chosen for its six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union. It began this week. The formula is of course cribbed from former US President Donald Trump, who has a good chance of winning the next US elections in November. That is, during the Hungarian presidency.
However, Budapest sees no allusion in this. “As far as I know, Donald Trump never wanted to make Europe strong,” explains Hungarian EU ambassador Balint Odor. “Our motto refers to the idea of an active and down-to-earth presidency, to the fact that we are stronger together while preserving our identity.”
The Green Deal has never been at the top of Hungary’s list of priorities in recent years. However, EU agricultural policy is now playing a surprisingly important role during the Council Presidency. Agriculture is one of the seven priorities of the Hungarian EU Council Presidency – alongside competitiveness, defense, enlargement, immigration, cohesion policy and demography. According to its statements, Budapest wants to return sovereignty over food issues to the EU and, in particular, defend food safety. Two parameters that should contribute to strengthening the EU’s strategic autonomy, explains the diplomat.
Farmers must be seen as the solutions to global warming and not the problem, demands Odor. Budapest thus wants to use the transitional phase until the new EU Commission is formed to pre-formulate the rules for EU agricultural policy after 2027 to ensure “competitive, crisis-proof and farmer-friendly agriculture.”
The Hungarian EU Council Presidency is taking place at a critical time: while the EU Commission and Parliament are being re-staffed. “Over the next few months, the EU institutions will focus on the distribution of posts and the appointment of the new Commission, which will reduce legislative activity,” summarizes Linda Kalcher, Director of the Strategic Perspectives think tank.
In this crucial phase, the European toolbox offers a range of options. “The Council Presidency determines what is put on the negotiating table, what priorities it sets, it can delay certain issues and push others forward,” explains Manon Dufour, Head of the Brussels office of the E3G think tank. “Hungary can use these levers at the Environment Council in October.” This is where the positions of the EU member states for COP29 in Baku and the emissions reduction target for 2040 are to be determined.
Hungary can therefore exert massive influence on these crucial issues. They will not be able to help shape the individual pieces of legislation for the EU’s 2040 climate target – the Commission does not want to present these until 2026. However, the basic numerical reduction target is to be set either by the ministers or by the heads of state and government at the summit in December with Hungarian participation. The Commission and some member states are calling for 90 percent; Budapest is considered less ambitious.
At COP29, the European contribution to global climate financing will be the most sensitive issue that Hungary will have to deal with, observes Manon Dufour. Which countries will pay and which countries will receive funds for climate change adaptation and emission reduction in the future – this question and the amount of climate finance are the most crucial issues in Baku. “At the European level, a decision by the finance ministers in the Ecofin Council is required here and this must be coordinated by the Hungarian Presidency.”
According to Dufour, it is completely open how the Hungarian EU Council Presidency will position itself here. Especially if Donald Trump is re-elected in November. The USA is the most hesitant industrialized nation when it comes to financing climate protection. This is unlikely to change under Trump – rather the opposite. “It is clear that the EU does not want to be the only contributor to climate financing,” says the E3G climate expert.
At COP29, Hungary will chair the negotiations for the EU member states as Council President. A lack of coordination by Budapest could weaken Europe’s role, warns Dufour. Other influential EU ministers and the Climate Commissioner could therefore take on more responsibility instead of Hungary, which is weak in terms of climate policy. Linda Kalcher is convinced that Teresa Ribera from Spain, Dan Jørgensen from Denmark, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and her State Secretary Jennifer Morgan could take on this role.
Dufour and Kalcher both warn of a “new dynamic” at COP29 due to a climate-skeptic axis consisting of Hungary, the USA and China. “We will have to wait and see how Budapest reacts if Donald Trump is re-elected,” says Kalcher. As Hungary has planned an informal Council meeting for November 7 and 8, i.e. immediately after the US elections, she believes that the impact of the US elections on the EU will be discussed there.
When Cornelia Ernst tackles something, she does so with absolute conviction and full commitment. You can always hear the absolute desire to assert her positions in her words. She does not hide this characteristic, calling herself “fanatical when it comes to justice.” With this conviction, she has worked for the Left in the European Parliament for the past 15 years, in the delegation for Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina, in the Industry Committee and in the delegation for Iran. From 2009 to 2019, she was Vice-Chairwoman; in the last legislative period, she chaired the delegation.
However, Cornelia Ernst actually had completely different plans as a child than to go into politics. “At the age of three, I already knew that I wanted to be a teacher,” she says. After graduating with a degree in education, she worked as a teacher trainer at the Institute for Teacher Training in Großenhain, Saxony, until 1991. During this time, she discovered the power of protest when, together with students, she was able to save an institution at the university.
When the director of the institute, Brigitte Zschoche, moved on to the state parliament in 1991, Ernst joined her as a member of staff. Experiences of injustice following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 also had a major influence on the 67-year-old’s political career. “The stories of the fall of the Berlin Wall washed me into politics,” says Ernst today. In her opinion, there was too much talk about Berlin during this time, while other East German regions were neglected.
Ultimately, it was asylum policy that brought Cornelia Ernst to Europe. After “securing the right to stay for many people from Yugoslavia” in Saxony in the 1990s, it was clear to her that she wanted to tackle the issue “once again, on a larger scale.”
Over the past 15 years in Brussels and Strasbourg, the left-wing politician has become “radicalized” on asylum policy issues, as she says herself. The reason for this is the “misanthropic policy,” which she accuses those who “keep putting up barriers so that people cannot come to us, even though they are exposed to terrible conditions.” This also includes the Common European Asylum System (CEAS).
Europe’s Iran policy also leaves her frustrated in some cases. The Chair of the EU Parliament delegation defends Josep Borrell. “I think it is right that he is trying to keep a foot in the door,” says Ernst. Although sanctions against the regime are “unavoidable,” they should not be the only means.
Rather, the release of the remaining prisoners in the country and support for civil society and opposition members should play a greater role. Because: “We will never be able to topple the regime from the outside,” explains Ernst. While the country had already turned to Russia and China politically and economically years ago, the majority of the local population continued to turn to the West.
The EU must make use of this in the future: Especially after Iran’s attack on Israel, “we must of course clearly state what we think of this regime in the current situation.” Nevertheless, it would be counterproductive to break off all contacts with Iran. At the same time, Cornelia Ernst is calling for a strengthening of the EU Parliament’s links to the opposition in Iran, for example with the help of an advisory board. “That is what we can actually do in the current situation,” she says.
In the long term, she would like to see a model along the lines of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, which managed the East-West conflict in the 1970s. “We need a similar institution that gradually brings about normalization in the Middle East,” says Ernst.
She will not be available for such efforts herself. She is withdrawing from European politics. Instead, she wants to help rebuild her party, the Left. “They need my support the most right now,” says Ernst. Jasper Bennink
