On Monday, European environment ministers will meet in Luxembourg to decide the fate of the proposed Nature Restoration Law.
The stakes are high: According to a diplomatic source, “one or two votes” will be enough to either pass or bury the law. This would bring an end to a legislative process marked by intense political battles, endless negotiations and countless compromises.
Monday’s meeting will be one of the last opportunities to reach an agreement under the Belgian EU Council Presidency, as Hungary will take over the presidency on July 1. To recall, Hungary is the country responsible for the institutional blockade of the law.
In March, Budapest abruptly shifted from the camp of supporters to that of the opponents, joining the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, Poland, Finland and Italy against the law. It was the one vote needed to block the law. However, diplomatic voices are not ready to give up on the law just yet. “Hope dies last,” they say. Everything depends on the Belgian presidency, which must continue its negotiations over the weekend.
The Belgians have made it clear that the results of the national elections, which took place simultaneously with the European elections, will not change the situation. “As long as there is no new government, nothing changes.”
This means that the Belgian Minister Alain Maron from the Green Party still has the mandate to pass the text, despite his country’s opposition. It is, so to speak, a surreal situation in the land of surrealism.
Nicola Procaccini, co-chair of the ECR group, aims to gain more members in the political marketplace. His goal is to make ECR the third-largest group, surpassing the Renew group, which has 79 members. “We do not want to leave the ECR,” says the representative from the post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia. They have no intention of abandoning the “conservative brand“, shared with the British Tories, the Republicans in the USA, and Likud in Israel.
Procaccini, a confidant of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni within the ECR, conveyed that the Fratelli d’Italia, which leads the ECR with 24 members ahead of Poland’s PiS (18 members), does not plan to merge with parties further to the right, including Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (30 members). Le Pen, however, is interested in joining the group, seeking proximity to Meloni for some time. The Fratelli d’Italia also opposes including Hungary’s Fidesz. Should PiS, as announced, request Fidesz’s inclusion, the scenario could change.
So far, Viktor Orbán’s ten-member delegation has not approached the ECR. “Fidesz has not applied for membership. There hasn’t even been contact since the election,” said Procaccini. While there is silence from Fidesz, four other deputies have joined the ECR, increasing their number to 77.
The direction of the ECR is closely watched by other groups as it impacts the distribution of positions in the European Parliament. In the last term, the groups agreed on a cordon sanitaire against the far-right ID group, excluding them from vice-president and quaestor posts and committee chairs they would have otherwise accessed through the D’Hondt method.
Because the ID group was excluded, more MEPs from other groups could become vice-presidents and chair committees. The ECR was positioned within the cordon sanitaire and thus received a vice-president and the chair of the Budget Committee.
It is expected that the groups will re-establish the cordon sanitaire in the next term to keep the far-right from positions. However, if the ECR, against Procaccini’s statement, decides to include the Rassemblement National, there could be a debate on whether the barrier should apply to them as well. This could mean excluding all ECR members from key positions, although it would be difficult to justify excluding the Fratelli d’Italia, the largest ECR delegation and a ruling party.
Membership in groups can be changed anytime during the term, but the claim of a group to positions is based on the number of members reported to the parliament administration at the beginning of July. National delegations are currently discussing their wish lists and priorities. The German CDU/CSU and SPD groups, for example, will decide next week on which MEP will receive their respective vice-president positions and committee chairs. Everyone knows that if the cordon sanitaire against the far-right ID group is re-established, there will be more positions to distribute.
The 15 deputies elected on the AfD ticket are to remain excluded from the far-right ID group until after the parliamentary elections in France, as decided by the Rassemblement National.
This development ruins the AfD’s favored option in Brussels. The party leadership hoped Marine Le Pen would reapproach the AfD once Maximilian Krah was no longer part of the delegation. AfD delegation leader René Aust is now exploring whether the AfD can join another group. He is flexible but not open to all options.
The AfD does not want to join a “hooligan group” of far-right radicals, including those from Hungary, as they get along well with Viktor Orbán. Anger within Berlin AfD circles is directed at Krah, blamed for the underwhelming election result. However, the door is not permanently closed to him. If he wants to return to the AfD, he must now behave seriously and disciplined in Brussels.
Following the Belgian parliamentary elections in 2019, it took almost 500 days to finally establish a new federal government. This time, things might move significantly faster: King Philippe has tasked Bart De Wever, the Flemish nationalist, with leading the exploratory talks for a subsequent government formation. De Wever is also considered a favorite for the position of Prime Minister.
The current incumbent, Flemish liberal Alexander De Croo, announced his resignation on Monday. His party, Open VLD, garnered only 8.3 percent of the vote in the regional election in Flanders, which was held on the same day as the federal parliamentary election. In contrast, De Wever’s New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) secured 23.9 percent, and the far-right Vlaams Belang came in second with 22.7 pecent.
Forming a government in Belgium is generally challenging due to the different parties in all three regions (Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels) that voted in completely different ways. In the French-speaking Wallonia and the capital Brussels, the liberals, not the nationalists, came out on top, unlike in Flanders. The previously strong Socialists and Greens lost ground, with the Greens suffering a significant defeat. “They were decimated,” commented a diplomat.
As a result, Belgium has shifted to the right, though it is not as deeply divided politically as it was before, when Flanders leaned far right and Wallonia far left. This could facilitate government formation.
The King is pushing for speed: De Wever should “identify the parties that quickly want to form a stable coalition at the federal level”, said the palace after consultations with all party leaders. The emphasis is on “quickly”. Unlike previous coalition negotiations that often took more than a year, potential alliances are already emerging shortly after the election.
De Wever, who is also the mayor of Antwerp, has already begun forming the government for the Flanders region. In the French-speaking Wallonia, exploratory talks are also well advanced. The leaders of the liberal Mouvement Réformateur (MR), Georges-Louis Bouchez and the Christian social Engagés under Maxime Prévot have agreed on an alliance.
At the federal level, N-VA, MR and the Engagés could collaborate, with the rather right-leaning Flemish Social Democrats of Vooruit as a potential coalition partner. This would result in a right-liberal government with a Flemish nationalist flavor, with De Wever as the head of government. However, some obstacles remain.
De Wever must decide whether he wants to govern at the national level and stabilize the Belgian federation or continue pursuing his nationalist Flemish agenda. He has publicly distanced himself from the separatist Vlaams Belang, reducing the likelihood of a right-wing alliance in Flanders. However, whether De Wever seeks major state reforms to grant more autonomy to his homeland remains unclear.
Another hurdle for forming a government is the empty state coffers: Belgium needs to cut spending. The EU Commission is expected to issue a reprimand for “excessive deficit” next week. New EU debt rules, taking effect this fall, will force Belgium into severe cuts. However, almost all parties made expensive promises during the election campaign, including the Social Democrats of Vooruit, with whom De Wever might now form a coalition.
The municipal elections scheduled for Oct. 13 could also cause delays. Before this highly anticipated date, no party leader is likely to take significant risks. Until a new government is formed, outgoing Prime Minister De Croo will remain in a caretaker role. This also ensures the continuation of Belgium’s EU presidency until the end of June, so far without any noticeable problems.
At the next EU summit, the heads of state and government will decide on the political priorities for the next five years. In a recent draft of the “Strategic Agenda“, obtained by Table.Briefings, they commit to “increasing our sovereignty in strategic sectors and close our growth, productivity and innovation gaps with international partners and main competitors.” This requires “significant collective investment effort“, for which both public and private funds will need to be mobilized, including through the European Investment Bank.
To reduce harmful dependencies on third countries, the EU aims to build its capacities in sensitive sectors such as defense, space, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, 5G/6G, health, biotechnologies, net-zero technologies, mobility, chemicals and advanced materials. Promoting innovation and research is crucial in this context.
The draft states that the EU countries aim to strengthen their defense readiness by increasing defense spending. “Going forward, we will invest substantially more and better together,” it states. The conditions for expanding the European defense industry need to be urgently improved “by creating a better integrated European defense market, promoting joint procurement and flagship projects of common interest.”
Additionally, the draft commits to the inclusion of more member states: ” The new geopolitical reality underscores the importance of enlargement as a geostrategic investment in peace, security, stability and prosperity.” Both the EU and the candidate countries are responsible for making the most of this opportunity and communicating it clearly. The EU will offer tangible incentives to candidate countries by supporting them in meeting the accession criteria “through established and new instruments and will use all possibilities for the gradual integration.” Meanwhile, the European Union will implement the necessary internal reforms. luk/tho
The European melting pot is simmering in Brussels. As new Members of the European Parliament arrive, it’s a good time to recall this sequence from “Parlement”, the cult series for EU enthusiasts. The faction leaders are negotiating leadership positions, a process that began on election night. All faction leaders were present in Brussels – except for Valérie Hayer.
Apparently, she did not find it necessary to travel to the European capital, lamented a leading member of the Renew Group. He emphasized that such meetings are important exercises where one must be present to signal to their troops that they exist. Additionally, it’s an opportunity to discuss with the leaders of other factions in the corridors.
This faux pas further complicates the situation for the candidate who led President Macron’s list in the European elections and famously failed. Despite her poor performance, Valérie Hayer made it clear in Brussels on Tuesday that she wants to retain the leadership of the Renew Group.
But now it gets exciting. The Dutch liberals are upset with Hayer after she announced plans to expel them from the faction due to their coalition with the far-right Geert Wilders. Furthermore, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), which is part of the Renew Group along with Hayer’s Renaissance faction, plays a significant role. Reportedly, ALDE is offering three alternative candidates: the FDP’s top candidate Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, Slovakian Ludovít Ódor and Sophie Wilmès.
The former Belgian Prime Minister received many votes in the European elections and is very popular in Belgium for her management of the COVID-19 crisis. Many in the faction consider Wilmès the best candidate for faction leadership. According to the Belgian daily Le Soir, Sophie Wilmès herself claims to have “no ambitions” but is assessing the situation and making contacts, including with Valérie Hayer. She is keeping all options open and must decide by June 26.
Meanwhile, calculations are being made on both the Belgian and French sides. “We absolutely need to find something for Pascal Canfin,” said a French political advisor. “He was very loyal,” emphasized a leading member of the Renew Group. Pascal Canfin chaired the Environment Committee in the Parliament for the past five years. He negotiated the key dossiers of the Green Deal, leading to intense political battles with Manfred Weber’s European People’s Party. Consider the proposed legislation for nature restoration.
In France, Canfin is seen as a green joker for a president criticized for his lack of ecological ambition. The former environmentalist threatened to withdraw from politics if he was not given a good spot on the election list. Macron’s camp did not want to risk losing someone who could siphon votes from the Socialist candidate, Raphaël Glucksmann.
But how will this work after Macron’s party’s crushing defeat in France and the resulting loss of influence in the European Parliament? “If the French are smart, they will give up the leadership of Renew to claim the chair of one or two parliamentary committees,” the political advisor continued. This strategy would contradict Valérie Hayer’s ambitions.
Some in her own faction argue that Hayer does not have the stature for the position: Given the rise of the far-right and the internal division of the faction, “the next Renew leader must act very politically and strategically. Valérie Hayer does not really fit the profile,” said a leading faction member. The coming days will undoubtedly be complicated for Valérie Hayer, while Sophie Wilmès is likely to have fewer difficulties.
On Monday, European environment ministers will meet in Luxembourg to decide the fate of the proposed Nature Restoration Law.
The stakes are high: According to a diplomatic source, “one or two votes” will be enough to either pass or bury the law. This would bring an end to a legislative process marked by intense political battles, endless negotiations and countless compromises.
Monday’s meeting will be one of the last opportunities to reach an agreement under the Belgian EU Council Presidency, as Hungary will take over the presidency on July 1. To recall, Hungary is the country responsible for the institutional blockade of the law.
In March, Budapest abruptly shifted from the camp of supporters to that of the opponents, joining the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, Poland, Finland and Italy against the law. It was the one vote needed to block the law. However, diplomatic voices are not ready to give up on the law just yet. “Hope dies last,” they say. Everything depends on the Belgian presidency, which must continue its negotiations over the weekend.
The Belgians have made it clear that the results of the national elections, which took place simultaneously with the European elections, will not change the situation. “As long as there is no new government, nothing changes.”
This means that the Belgian Minister Alain Maron from the Green Party still has the mandate to pass the text, despite his country’s opposition. It is, so to speak, a surreal situation in the land of surrealism.
Nicola Procaccini, co-chair of the ECR group, aims to gain more members in the political marketplace. His goal is to make ECR the third-largest group, surpassing the Renew group, which has 79 members. “We do not want to leave the ECR,” says the representative from the post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia. They have no intention of abandoning the “conservative brand“, shared with the British Tories, the Republicans in the USA, and Likud in Israel.
Procaccini, a confidant of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni within the ECR, conveyed that the Fratelli d’Italia, which leads the ECR with 24 members ahead of Poland’s PiS (18 members), does not plan to merge with parties further to the right, including Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (30 members). Le Pen, however, is interested in joining the group, seeking proximity to Meloni for some time. The Fratelli d’Italia also opposes including Hungary’s Fidesz. Should PiS, as announced, request Fidesz’s inclusion, the scenario could change.
So far, Viktor Orbán’s ten-member delegation has not approached the ECR. “Fidesz has not applied for membership. There hasn’t even been contact since the election,” said Procaccini. While there is silence from Fidesz, four other deputies have joined the ECR, increasing their number to 77.
The direction of the ECR is closely watched by other groups as it impacts the distribution of positions in the European Parliament. In the last term, the groups agreed on a cordon sanitaire against the far-right ID group, excluding them from vice-president and quaestor posts and committee chairs they would have otherwise accessed through the D’Hondt method.
Because the ID group was excluded, more MEPs from other groups could become vice-presidents and chair committees. The ECR was positioned within the cordon sanitaire and thus received a vice-president and the chair of the Budget Committee.
It is expected that the groups will re-establish the cordon sanitaire in the next term to keep the far-right from positions. However, if the ECR, against Procaccini’s statement, decides to include the Rassemblement National, there could be a debate on whether the barrier should apply to them as well. This could mean excluding all ECR members from key positions, although it would be difficult to justify excluding the Fratelli d’Italia, the largest ECR delegation and a ruling party.
Membership in groups can be changed anytime during the term, but the claim of a group to positions is based on the number of members reported to the parliament administration at the beginning of July. National delegations are currently discussing their wish lists and priorities. The German CDU/CSU and SPD groups, for example, will decide next week on which MEP will receive their respective vice-president positions and committee chairs. Everyone knows that if the cordon sanitaire against the far-right ID group is re-established, there will be more positions to distribute.
The 15 deputies elected on the AfD ticket are to remain excluded from the far-right ID group until after the parliamentary elections in France, as decided by the Rassemblement National.
This development ruins the AfD’s favored option in Brussels. The party leadership hoped Marine Le Pen would reapproach the AfD once Maximilian Krah was no longer part of the delegation. AfD delegation leader René Aust is now exploring whether the AfD can join another group. He is flexible but not open to all options.
The AfD does not want to join a “hooligan group” of far-right radicals, including those from Hungary, as they get along well with Viktor Orbán. Anger within Berlin AfD circles is directed at Krah, blamed for the underwhelming election result. However, the door is not permanently closed to him. If he wants to return to the AfD, he must now behave seriously and disciplined in Brussels.
Following the Belgian parliamentary elections in 2019, it took almost 500 days to finally establish a new federal government. This time, things might move significantly faster: King Philippe has tasked Bart De Wever, the Flemish nationalist, with leading the exploratory talks for a subsequent government formation. De Wever is also considered a favorite for the position of Prime Minister.
The current incumbent, Flemish liberal Alexander De Croo, announced his resignation on Monday. His party, Open VLD, garnered only 8.3 percent of the vote in the regional election in Flanders, which was held on the same day as the federal parliamentary election. In contrast, De Wever’s New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) secured 23.9 percent, and the far-right Vlaams Belang came in second with 22.7 pecent.
Forming a government in Belgium is generally challenging due to the different parties in all three regions (Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels) that voted in completely different ways. In the French-speaking Wallonia and the capital Brussels, the liberals, not the nationalists, came out on top, unlike in Flanders. The previously strong Socialists and Greens lost ground, with the Greens suffering a significant defeat. “They were decimated,” commented a diplomat.
As a result, Belgium has shifted to the right, though it is not as deeply divided politically as it was before, when Flanders leaned far right and Wallonia far left. This could facilitate government formation.
The King is pushing for speed: De Wever should “identify the parties that quickly want to form a stable coalition at the federal level”, said the palace after consultations with all party leaders. The emphasis is on “quickly”. Unlike previous coalition negotiations that often took more than a year, potential alliances are already emerging shortly after the election.
De Wever, who is also the mayor of Antwerp, has already begun forming the government for the Flanders region. In the French-speaking Wallonia, exploratory talks are also well advanced. The leaders of the liberal Mouvement Réformateur (MR), Georges-Louis Bouchez and the Christian social Engagés under Maxime Prévot have agreed on an alliance.
At the federal level, N-VA, MR and the Engagés could collaborate, with the rather right-leaning Flemish Social Democrats of Vooruit as a potential coalition partner. This would result in a right-liberal government with a Flemish nationalist flavor, with De Wever as the head of government. However, some obstacles remain.
De Wever must decide whether he wants to govern at the national level and stabilize the Belgian federation or continue pursuing his nationalist Flemish agenda. He has publicly distanced himself from the separatist Vlaams Belang, reducing the likelihood of a right-wing alliance in Flanders. However, whether De Wever seeks major state reforms to grant more autonomy to his homeland remains unclear.
Another hurdle for forming a government is the empty state coffers: Belgium needs to cut spending. The EU Commission is expected to issue a reprimand for “excessive deficit” next week. New EU debt rules, taking effect this fall, will force Belgium into severe cuts. However, almost all parties made expensive promises during the election campaign, including the Social Democrats of Vooruit, with whom De Wever might now form a coalition.
The municipal elections scheduled for Oct. 13 could also cause delays. Before this highly anticipated date, no party leader is likely to take significant risks. Until a new government is formed, outgoing Prime Minister De Croo will remain in a caretaker role. This also ensures the continuation of Belgium’s EU presidency until the end of June, so far without any noticeable problems.
At the next EU summit, the heads of state and government will decide on the political priorities for the next five years. In a recent draft of the “Strategic Agenda“, obtained by Table.Briefings, they commit to “increasing our sovereignty in strategic sectors and close our growth, productivity and innovation gaps with international partners and main competitors.” This requires “significant collective investment effort“, for which both public and private funds will need to be mobilized, including through the European Investment Bank.
To reduce harmful dependencies on third countries, the EU aims to build its capacities in sensitive sectors such as defense, space, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, 5G/6G, health, biotechnologies, net-zero technologies, mobility, chemicals and advanced materials. Promoting innovation and research is crucial in this context.
The draft states that the EU countries aim to strengthen their defense readiness by increasing defense spending. “Going forward, we will invest substantially more and better together,” it states. The conditions for expanding the European defense industry need to be urgently improved “by creating a better integrated European defense market, promoting joint procurement and flagship projects of common interest.”
Additionally, the draft commits to the inclusion of more member states: ” The new geopolitical reality underscores the importance of enlargement as a geostrategic investment in peace, security, stability and prosperity.” Both the EU and the candidate countries are responsible for making the most of this opportunity and communicating it clearly. The EU will offer tangible incentives to candidate countries by supporting them in meeting the accession criteria “through established and new instruments and will use all possibilities for the gradual integration.” Meanwhile, the European Union will implement the necessary internal reforms. luk/tho
The European melting pot is simmering in Brussels. As new Members of the European Parliament arrive, it’s a good time to recall this sequence from “Parlement”, the cult series for EU enthusiasts. The faction leaders are negotiating leadership positions, a process that began on election night. All faction leaders were present in Brussels – except for Valérie Hayer.
Apparently, she did not find it necessary to travel to the European capital, lamented a leading member of the Renew Group. He emphasized that such meetings are important exercises where one must be present to signal to their troops that they exist. Additionally, it’s an opportunity to discuss with the leaders of other factions in the corridors.
This faux pas further complicates the situation for the candidate who led President Macron’s list in the European elections and famously failed. Despite her poor performance, Valérie Hayer made it clear in Brussels on Tuesday that she wants to retain the leadership of the Renew Group.
But now it gets exciting. The Dutch liberals are upset with Hayer after she announced plans to expel them from the faction due to their coalition with the far-right Geert Wilders. Furthermore, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), which is part of the Renew Group along with Hayer’s Renaissance faction, plays a significant role. Reportedly, ALDE is offering three alternative candidates: the FDP’s top candidate Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, Slovakian Ludovít Ódor and Sophie Wilmès.
The former Belgian Prime Minister received many votes in the European elections and is very popular in Belgium for her management of the COVID-19 crisis. Many in the faction consider Wilmès the best candidate for faction leadership. According to the Belgian daily Le Soir, Sophie Wilmès herself claims to have “no ambitions” but is assessing the situation and making contacts, including with Valérie Hayer. She is keeping all options open and must decide by June 26.
Meanwhile, calculations are being made on both the Belgian and French sides. “We absolutely need to find something for Pascal Canfin,” said a French political advisor. “He was very loyal,” emphasized a leading member of the Renew Group. Pascal Canfin chaired the Environment Committee in the Parliament for the past five years. He negotiated the key dossiers of the Green Deal, leading to intense political battles with Manfred Weber’s European People’s Party. Consider the proposed legislation for nature restoration.
In France, Canfin is seen as a green joker for a president criticized for his lack of ecological ambition. The former environmentalist threatened to withdraw from politics if he was not given a good spot on the election list. Macron’s camp did not want to risk losing someone who could siphon votes from the Socialist candidate, Raphaël Glucksmann.
But how will this work after Macron’s party’s crushing defeat in France and the resulting loss of influence in the European Parliament? “If the French are smart, they will give up the leadership of Renew to claim the chair of one or two parliamentary committees,” the political advisor continued. This strategy would contradict Valérie Hayer’s ambitions.
Some in her own faction argue that Hayer does not have the stature for the position: Given the rise of the far-right and the internal division of the faction, “the next Renew leader must act very politically and strategically. Valérie Hayer does not really fit the profile,” said a leading faction member. The coming days will undoubtedly be complicated for Valérie Hayer, while Sophie Wilmès is likely to have fewer difficulties.
