Europe has voted. Last night brought a number of insights:
According to the European Parliament’s seat projection, EPP, S&D and Renew, the three factions of the informal Von der Leyen coalition, will secure 407 of the 720 seats in the European elections. They would thus continue to have a majority in the tenth legislative period. However, to ensure Ursula von der Leyen’s reelection, they might seek the support of the Greens.
The election winner is the EPP with top candidate Ursula von der Leyen. According to the latest seat projection at 1:20 am, they will hold 189 seats, gaining 13 seats. Previously, they had 176 deputies. EPP party and faction leader Manfred Weber interprets the election victory as a mandate for the European Parliament to elect von der Leyen for a second term as Commission President. “We invite S&D and Renew to form a pro-European alliance in Parliament again to support Ursula von der Leyen as Commission President.”
Ursula von der Leyen appeared in the European Parliament around midnight, saying, “The previous platform of cooperation between EPP, S&D and Renew has proven effective. Tomorrow we will seek talks with the Socialists and Liberals to continue this cooperation.” Whether negotiations with the Greens will follow remains to be seen.
On Tuesday, the faction leaders will meet for the first time to discuss the election results and set a date for the election of the Commission President. On Monday, June 17, the heads of state and government will meet to negotiate the personnel package. The Council has the right to propose the position, and the European Parliament votes on it.
Weber called on the Council to support von der Leyen: “We expect both chambers to respect the outcome of the European election and support von der Leyen.” The first step should be for “Chancellor Olaf Scholz to propose Ursula von der Leyen in the round of heads of state and government.” As a second step, he expects French President Emmanuel Macron to join the call.
The S&D faction remains in second place, according to the projection at 11:25 p.m., with 135 seats, losing four seats compared to the last legislative period with their top candidate Nicolas Schmit. Schmit acknowledged the election defeat and congratulated the EPP and Ursula von der Leyen. “I am confident that there is a willingness among the previous partners to cooperate and fight for solutions.”
Pedro Marques, S&D vice-chair, signaled support for von der Leyen: “We Social Democrats respect the lead candidate principle.” The Socialists are ready to form a pro-European majority in the European Parliament again, but only if the right-wing factions are not involved: “No coalition with ECR, no coalition with ID.” Marques expressed sympathy for including the Greens in the informal coalition: “To form a stable majority for the legislative period, we should invite another faction to the negotiating table.”
Renew lost significantly but remains the third-strongest faction. The Liberals, led by Valérie Hayer, now hold 83 seats, losing 19 deputies. Hayer signaled that Renew remains interested in forming an informal coalition: “The results show that a pro-European majority in the European Parliament is not possible without us.”
On election night, EPP leader Weber contacted Socialists and Liberals to organize a majority for von der Leyen’s election, which could take place on July 18 in Strasbourg.
If the Christian Democrats, Socialists, and Liberals agree on informal cooperation again, they would have 407 seats, 46 more than needed for electing the Commission President. They could technically do without the Greens’ support. However, there might be dissenters in all three factions, so the parties of the previous Von der Leyen coalition might seek the Greens’ support.
Besides the Liberals, the Greens are the other losers of the election night. The Greens, previously the fourth-strongest faction, fell behind the conservative ECR and the far-right ID faction. They lost 19 seats and now have only 53 deputies. Bas Eickhout, one of the Greens’ top candidates, expressed willingness to negotiate with EPP, S&D, and Renew: “Whether we support Ursula von der Leyen is yet to be determined. We are ready to negotiate with the other factions.”
ECR gained three mandates and now holds 72 seats. ID gained nine mandates, bringing them to 58 seats. The Left faction lost two seats, now holding 35 seats. 45 deputies are not affiliated with any faction, down from 49. Additionally, 50 new deputies were elected to Parliament, also unaffiliated with any faction.
Voter turnout, according to preliminary figures, slightly increased to 51 percent. A total of 360 million Europeans were eligible to vote.
The traffic light coalition had to endure painful results on Sunday evening: The smallest partner relieved to satisfied, the chancellor’s party with a historically poor result and the Greens in between as the biggest losers. This hints at what the highly sensitive budget negotiations will look like: The Liberals are likely to stick to their hard line, the Social Democrats will angrily push back and the Greens, led by Robert Habeck, who have tried to act as bridge builders, will face growing doubts within their ranks.
The Greens have to ask themselves: What went wrong? The losses, especially among young voters, are painful; they clearly show that expectations were disappointed. Climate action has been the Greens’ big goal; and in this field, they have not advanced far enough for younger people.
At the same time, some in the government are frustrated that the campaign did not project a truly unique narrative – and that in the last week, some responded to the debate on the deportation of a criminal as the Greens often do: by saying that it just wasn’t possible. For the pragmatists, this was a grave mistake just days before the election. For this reason, the six-person round from the party leadership, parliamentary leadership and Habeck and Baerbock will meet on Monday to discuss the campaign.
The result shows that the party is falling back to its core clientele. This means that those who had placed new trust in the Greens a few years ago have stayed away. Possibly in part because the debate over deportations revealed old Green reflexes. These are more the Habeck voters who feel that his more moderate course was repeatedly countered by internal conflicts. The result is unpleasant for the Greens, and the question of how to respond remains uncomfortably open. Longtime Green MEP Reinhard Bütikofer advises his party to stay the course but better explain their policies.
The SPD leaders were visibly affected by the rise of the AfD, despite all their scandals, and by their own poor results. Party leader Lars Klingbeil spoke bluntly of a “bitter defeat” and added: “For us, the result is a mandate.” Workers have “clear expectations” of the Social Democrats: “This is what the upcoming budget negotiations are about.” This likely includes both the Federal Finance Minister and the Chancellor.
“The comrades are increasingly frustrated with Scholz’s moderating leadership style, both in the faction and the party leadership. We need a 2025 budget that we can campaign with in the Bundestag elections,” said top party members. In any case, it should address the many challenges.
It will get rougher until the summer break. “What good is it if entire villages flood, Ukraine loses the war, but we have a balanced budget?” asks Bochum MP Axel Schäfer. “Plain speaking from the Chancellor” is also expected by Baden MP Derya Türk-Nachbaur. She speaks for many colleagues: “The fact that small parties are setting the tone must end.”
The FDP is relieved, even happy, and sees its course confirmed. In the Hans-Dietrich-Genscher-Haus, the forecasts brought relieved cheers. While the Liberals know that a significant portion of the votes are thanks to Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann personally, some regret that she and her campaign could not mobilize more.
Nevertheless, Christian Lindner feels strengthened for the highly difficult budget talks. These talks, frequently mentioned on Sunday evening, will be more crucial for the future of the traffic light coalition than the European election results.
A political bombshell in France: A far-right party has never achieved such a high result in any election before. The Rassemblement National (RN) emerged as the big winner of the European elections with 31.5 percent of the vote, which is eight percentage points more than in 2019.
The RN was far ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal alliance, Besoin d’Europe, which received just over 14.5 percent of the vote. There was no surge at the polls as the president’s party had hoped, losing six percentage points compared to 2019. This result is also significant given the increased voter turnout: The number of abstentions is expected to be under 50 percent – previous years saw higher rates of abstention.
Macron was prompted to take a radical political step: He announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and the calling of new elections. His position as President remains unaffected; he will continue to serve as France’s head of state. The first round of elections will be held on June 30, followed by the second round on July 7. “I cannot pretend that nothing has happened at the end of this day,” Macron said.
“This situation is compounded by a fever that has gripped public and parliamentary debate in our country in recent years.” He wants to give the people of France “the decision about our parliamentary future through voting.”
Marine Le Pen responded promptly: “We are ready to govern if the French people place their trust in us,” said the RN parliamentary group leader in the National Assembly.
S&D MEP Raphaël Glucksmann criticized the president’s decision. He accused Macron of giving in to the demands of RN leader Jordan Bardella, playing an extremely dangerous game with democracy and institutions. Glucksmann was defiant: “The takeover by the Rassemblement National is far from inevitable.”
The list led by MEP Glucksmann, Parti socialiste/Place publique, finished third with 14 percent of the vote, not far behind Besoin d’Europe, after a dynamic campaign. The Socialists had lost support since the end of Macron’s predecessor François Hollande’s term, receiving just over 6 percent in the 2019 European elections. The alliance has now secured a place ahead of all other left-wing parties.
The far-left party La France Insoumise (LFI), led by MEP Manon Aubry, garnered 10.1 percent, a better result than the 6.3 percent in 2019. The conservative Les Républicains, led by MEP François-Xavier Bellamy, received 7.2 percent, down from 8.5 percent five years ago.
The French Greens (EELV), who surprised in 2019, barely made it into Parliament with 5.5 percent of the vote. The party had reached over 13 percent and third place in 2019. Like the German Greens, the French Greens are experiencing a significant defeat. This is particularly painful as the political influence of the Greens in the European Parliament relies heavily on the delegations from Germany and France.
Nearly 49 million French voters were called to the polls to elect their 81 representatives out of the 720 MEPs in the new European Parliament.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her right-conservative party, Fratelli d’Italia, have clearly won the European elections in Italy. With 28.9 percent of the vote, they surpassed their record result from the national elections. Coming in second were the Social Democrats of the Partito Democratico, who received 24.5 percent of the vote. Meloni’s right-wing coalition partners, Forza Italia and Lega, received 9.1 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively. Voter turnout for the European elections was at a national low of 49.6 percent.
The Greens, who typically do not play a significant political role in Italy, also won, securing 6.9 percent of the vote and entering the European Parliament. The biggest losers were the Five Star Movement led by former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who only garnered 10.3 percent, continuing their decline and Matteo Salvini’s Lega, which had 34.33 percent of the vote in 2019. This election result has not only strengthened Prime Minister Meloni’s power in Rome but also her negotiating position in Brussels.
The conservative People’s Party (PP) won the European elections with a four-point lead over President Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists (PSOE). The PP received 34.2 percent of the vote (22 seats), while the PSOE got 30.2 percent (20 seats). PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo had expected more, as polls had predicted a ten-point lead. The gap narrowed over the weeks, with the indictment of Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez, dominating the campaign for both major parties.
While the PP did not achieve the overwhelming victory it had hoped for, the result is still a significant gain compared to 2019: The PP gains nine seats, while the PSOE loses one. Teresa Ribera, the PSOE’s lead candidate and third vice president and minister for the green transition in Sánchez’s government, is a strong contender for the position of EU Commissioner.
The far-right party Vox, in third place, increased its seats from four in 2019 to six (9.6 percent). Sumar, Sánchez’s coalition partner, sends only three MEPs to the European Parliament.
In a surprising turn, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition won the European elections in Poland. “We have waited ten years for first place,” Tusk said after the initial results were released. “Today we have achieved the best result among democratic parties in Europe.” Near tears, he added that Poland is Europe’s “light of hope”.
The liberal Civic Coalition secured 37.4 percent of the vote and will likely send 21 MEPs to Brussels. The PiS party, which repeatedly took anti-European stances during the campaign, received 35.7 percent and 20 seats. The far-right and eurosceptic Konfederacja performed unexpectedly well, becoming the third strongest force with 11.8 percent. The strength of the Civic Coalition came at the expense of its government partners: Third Way and the Left won 7.3 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.
The European elections in the Netherlands had two winners. Frans Timmermans’ GroenLinks won the symbolically important duel with Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) for first place. The joint list of Greens and Social Democrats will send eight MEPs to the European Parliament, one less than before. Geert Wilders’ PVV came in second with six seats, an increase of five seats compared to 2019.
Overall, the far-right in the Netherlands remained stable as Thierry Baudet’s Forum for Democracy (FvD) lost all four of its seats. For Geert Wilders, the result is a setback shortly after the agreement on a coalition government was reached. The two coalition partners BBB and NSC fell short of expectations. The left-liberal D66 gained a seat, while the pro-European Volt secured two mandates.
In the federal parliamentary election held concurrently with the European election, the ruling “Vivaldi” coalition led by Flemish liberal Prime Minister Alexander De Croo predictably lost its majority. De Croo announced his resignation, effective immediately.
In the European election, the far-right Vlaams Belang led, closely followed by the liberals MR and the separatist N-VA. The two right-wing Flemish parties are expected to retain their six seats in the new European Parliament, while the liberals will gain one more seat, totaling three. The social-democratic party Vooruit and the Labour Party (PTB) also gained seats, with each securing two.
For the first time, Austria’s right-wing populist FPÖ won a nationwide election, obtaining 25.7 percent of the vote and six of Austria’s 20 mandates. The conservative ÖVP and the social-democratic SPÖ followed closely with 24.7 percent and 23.2 percent, respectively, each securing five mandates but suffering losses. The Greens, embroiled in a campaign scandal involving their lead candidate Lena Schilling, managed to retain 10.7%, losing one mandate to the liberal NEOS which gained 9.9 percent and two mandates.
The big winners were the NEOS and the FPÖ, which nearly matched its historic best result. The ruling ÖVP and the Greens were punished by voters, with the ÖVP losing almost ten percentage points and the Greens around three. Key election issues included immigration, security, war and environmental and climate action. Voter turnout was about 54 percent.
It remains uncertain who will be Austria’s EU Commissioner, with the ÖVP appearing to have the best chance despite the Greens having rescinded their government agreement on the matter. The FPÖ insists that the Commissioner should be appointed after the national elections in the fall.
Almut Siefert, Isabel Cuesta, Andrzej Rybak, Stephan Israel, Eric Bonse and Lukas Bayer
Number mix-up: Europe eagerly awaited the first provisional seat projection for the tenth European Parliament shortly after 11 p.m., when a number mix-up occurred. Jaume Duch Guillot, the Parliament spokesperson, read numbers from a sheet, but the graphic behind him displayed a different seat distribution. Parliamentary President Roberta Metsola finally interrupted: “No, no, no.” The confusion was significant, with news agencies initially reporting incorrect numbers. The official correction didn’t come until just before midnight.
“Nope”: While the CDU exerted all its efforts to pressure Chancellor Olaf Scholz regarding new elections after the vote, Scholz shrugged it off on election night. According to “Spiegel“, he cheerfully accepted numerous selfie requests from comrades at the Willy Brandt House. However, when asked for a statement on the election outcome, his response was simply: “Nope.”
“That could have been better”: Green top candidate Bas Eickhout summed up the Greens’ results in Germany with this comment shortly after the election – hitting the nail on the head. Unlike his German co-leader Terry Reintke, the Dutchman succeeded in making the joint list of the Greens and the Labour Party the strongest force in the Netherlands.
Europe has voted. Last night brought a number of insights:
According to the European Parliament’s seat projection, EPP, S&D and Renew, the three factions of the informal Von der Leyen coalition, will secure 407 of the 720 seats in the European elections. They would thus continue to have a majority in the tenth legislative period. However, to ensure Ursula von der Leyen’s reelection, they might seek the support of the Greens.
The election winner is the EPP with top candidate Ursula von der Leyen. According to the latest seat projection at 1:20 am, they will hold 189 seats, gaining 13 seats. Previously, they had 176 deputies. EPP party and faction leader Manfred Weber interprets the election victory as a mandate for the European Parliament to elect von der Leyen for a second term as Commission President. “We invite S&D and Renew to form a pro-European alliance in Parliament again to support Ursula von der Leyen as Commission President.”
Ursula von der Leyen appeared in the European Parliament around midnight, saying, “The previous platform of cooperation between EPP, S&D and Renew has proven effective. Tomorrow we will seek talks with the Socialists and Liberals to continue this cooperation.” Whether negotiations with the Greens will follow remains to be seen.
On Tuesday, the faction leaders will meet for the first time to discuss the election results and set a date for the election of the Commission President. On Monday, June 17, the heads of state and government will meet to negotiate the personnel package. The Council has the right to propose the position, and the European Parliament votes on it.
Weber called on the Council to support von der Leyen: “We expect both chambers to respect the outcome of the European election and support von der Leyen.” The first step should be for “Chancellor Olaf Scholz to propose Ursula von der Leyen in the round of heads of state and government.” As a second step, he expects French President Emmanuel Macron to join the call.
The S&D faction remains in second place, according to the projection at 11:25 p.m., with 135 seats, losing four seats compared to the last legislative period with their top candidate Nicolas Schmit. Schmit acknowledged the election defeat and congratulated the EPP and Ursula von der Leyen. “I am confident that there is a willingness among the previous partners to cooperate and fight for solutions.”
Pedro Marques, S&D vice-chair, signaled support for von der Leyen: “We Social Democrats respect the lead candidate principle.” The Socialists are ready to form a pro-European majority in the European Parliament again, but only if the right-wing factions are not involved: “No coalition with ECR, no coalition with ID.” Marques expressed sympathy for including the Greens in the informal coalition: “To form a stable majority for the legislative period, we should invite another faction to the negotiating table.”
Renew lost significantly but remains the third-strongest faction. The Liberals, led by Valérie Hayer, now hold 83 seats, losing 19 deputies. Hayer signaled that Renew remains interested in forming an informal coalition: “The results show that a pro-European majority in the European Parliament is not possible without us.”
On election night, EPP leader Weber contacted Socialists and Liberals to organize a majority for von der Leyen’s election, which could take place on July 18 in Strasbourg.
If the Christian Democrats, Socialists, and Liberals agree on informal cooperation again, they would have 407 seats, 46 more than needed for electing the Commission President. They could technically do without the Greens’ support. However, there might be dissenters in all three factions, so the parties of the previous Von der Leyen coalition might seek the Greens’ support.
Besides the Liberals, the Greens are the other losers of the election night. The Greens, previously the fourth-strongest faction, fell behind the conservative ECR and the far-right ID faction. They lost 19 seats and now have only 53 deputies. Bas Eickhout, one of the Greens’ top candidates, expressed willingness to negotiate with EPP, S&D, and Renew: “Whether we support Ursula von der Leyen is yet to be determined. We are ready to negotiate with the other factions.”
ECR gained three mandates and now holds 72 seats. ID gained nine mandates, bringing them to 58 seats. The Left faction lost two seats, now holding 35 seats. 45 deputies are not affiliated with any faction, down from 49. Additionally, 50 new deputies were elected to Parliament, also unaffiliated with any faction.
Voter turnout, according to preliminary figures, slightly increased to 51 percent. A total of 360 million Europeans were eligible to vote.
The traffic light coalition had to endure painful results on Sunday evening: The smallest partner relieved to satisfied, the chancellor’s party with a historically poor result and the Greens in between as the biggest losers. This hints at what the highly sensitive budget negotiations will look like: The Liberals are likely to stick to their hard line, the Social Democrats will angrily push back and the Greens, led by Robert Habeck, who have tried to act as bridge builders, will face growing doubts within their ranks.
The Greens have to ask themselves: What went wrong? The losses, especially among young voters, are painful; they clearly show that expectations were disappointed. Climate action has been the Greens’ big goal; and in this field, they have not advanced far enough for younger people.
At the same time, some in the government are frustrated that the campaign did not project a truly unique narrative – and that in the last week, some responded to the debate on the deportation of a criminal as the Greens often do: by saying that it just wasn’t possible. For the pragmatists, this was a grave mistake just days before the election. For this reason, the six-person round from the party leadership, parliamentary leadership and Habeck and Baerbock will meet on Monday to discuss the campaign.
The result shows that the party is falling back to its core clientele. This means that those who had placed new trust in the Greens a few years ago have stayed away. Possibly in part because the debate over deportations revealed old Green reflexes. These are more the Habeck voters who feel that his more moderate course was repeatedly countered by internal conflicts. The result is unpleasant for the Greens, and the question of how to respond remains uncomfortably open. Longtime Green MEP Reinhard Bütikofer advises his party to stay the course but better explain their policies.
The SPD leaders were visibly affected by the rise of the AfD, despite all their scandals, and by their own poor results. Party leader Lars Klingbeil spoke bluntly of a “bitter defeat” and added: “For us, the result is a mandate.” Workers have “clear expectations” of the Social Democrats: “This is what the upcoming budget negotiations are about.” This likely includes both the Federal Finance Minister and the Chancellor.
“The comrades are increasingly frustrated with Scholz’s moderating leadership style, both in the faction and the party leadership. We need a 2025 budget that we can campaign with in the Bundestag elections,” said top party members. In any case, it should address the many challenges.
It will get rougher until the summer break. “What good is it if entire villages flood, Ukraine loses the war, but we have a balanced budget?” asks Bochum MP Axel Schäfer. “Plain speaking from the Chancellor” is also expected by Baden MP Derya Türk-Nachbaur. She speaks for many colleagues: “The fact that small parties are setting the tone must end.”
The FDP is relieved, even happy, and sees its course confirmed. In the Hans-Dietrich-Genscher-Haus, the forecasts brought relieved cheers. While the Liberals know that a significant portion of the votes are thanks to Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann personally, some regret that she and her campaign could not mobilize more.
Nevertheless, Christian Lindner feels strengthened for the highly difficult budget talks. These talks, frequently mentioned on Sunday evening, will be more crucial for the future of the traffic light coalition than the European election results.
A political bombshell in France: A far-right party has never achieved such a high result in any election before. The Rassemblement National (RN) emerged as the big winner of the European elections with 31.5 percent of the vote, which is eight percentage points more than in 2019.
The RN was far ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal alliance, Besoin d’Europe, which received just over 14.5 percent of the vote. There was no surge at the polls as the president’s party had hoped, losing six percentage points compared to 2019. This result is also significant given the increased voter turnout: The number of abstentions is expected to be under 50 percent – previous years saw higher rates of abstention.
Macron was prompted to take a radical political step: He announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and the calling of new elections. His position as President remains unaffected; he will continue to serve as France’s head of state. The first round of elections will be held on June 30, followed by the second round on July 7. “I cannot pretend that nothing has happened at the end of this day,” Macron said.
“This situation is compounded by a fever that has gripped public and parliamentary debate in our country in recent years.” He wants to give the people of France “the decision about our parliamentary future through voting.”
Marine Le Pen responded promptly: “We are ready to govern if the French people place their trust in us,” said the RN parliamentary group leader in the National Assembly.
S&D MEP Raphaël Glucksmann criticized the president’s decision. He accused Macron of giving in to the demands of RN leader Jordan Bardella, playing an extremely dangerous game with democracy and institutions. Glucksmann was defiant: “The takeover by the Rassemblement National is far from inevitable.”
The list led by MEP Glucksmann, Parti socialiste/Place publique, finished third with 14 percent of the vote, not far behind Besoin d’Europe, after a dynamic campaign. The Socialists had lost support since the end of Macron’s predecessor François Hollande’s term, receiving just over 6 percent in the 2019 European elections. The alliance has now secured a place ahead of all other left-wing parties.
The far-left party La France Insoumise (LFI), led by MEP Manon Aubry, garnered 10.1 percent, a better result than the 6.3 percent in 2019. The conservative Les Républicains, led by MEP François-Xavier Bellamy, received 7.2 percent, down from 8.5 percent five years ago.
The French Greens (EELV), who surprised in 2019, barely made it into Parliament with 5.5 percent of the vote. The party had reached over 13 percent and third place in 2019. Like the German Greens, the French Greens are experiencing a significant defeat. This is particularly painful as the political influence of the Greens in the European Parliament relies heavily on the delegations from Germany and France.
Nearly 49 million French voters were called to the polls to elect their 81 representatives out of the 720 MEPs in the new European Parliament.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her right-conservative party, Fratelli d’Italia, have clearly won the European elections in Italy. With 28.9 percent of the vote, they surpassed their record result from the national elections. Coming in second were the Social Democrats of the Partito Democratico, who received 24.5 percent of the vote. Meloni’s right-wing coalition partners, Forza Italia and Lega, received 9.1 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively. Voter turnout for the European elections was at a national low of 49.6 percent.
The Greens, who typically do not play a significant political role in Italy, also won, securing 6.9 percent of the vote and entering the European Parliament. The biggest losers were the Five Star Movement led by former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who only garnered 10.3 percent, continuing their decline and Matteo Salvini’s Lega, which had 34.33 percent of the vote in 2019. This election result has not only strengthened Prime Minister Meloni’s power in Rome but also her negotiating position in Brussels.
The conservative People’s Party (PP) won the European elections with a four-point lead over President Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists (PSOE). The PP received 34.2 percent of the vote (22 seats), while the PSOE got 30.2 percent (20 seats). PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo had expected more, as polls had predicted a ten-point lead. The gap narrowed over the weeks, with the indictment of Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez, dominating the campaign for both major parties.
While the PP did not achieve the overwhelming victory it had hoped for, the result is still a significant gain compared to 2019: The PP gains nine seats, while the PSOE loses one. Teresa Ribera, the PSOE’s lead candidate and third vice president and minister for the green transition in Sánchez’s government, is a strong contender for the position of EU Commissioner.
The far-right party Vox, in third place, increased its seats from four in 2019 to six (9.6 percent). Sumar, Sánchez’s coalition partner, sends only three MEPs to the European Parliament.
In a surprising turn, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition won the European elections in Poland. “We have waited ten years for first place,” Tusk said after the initial results were released. “Today we have achieved the best result among democratic parties in Europe.” Near tears, he added that Poland is Europe’s “light of hope”.
The liberal Civic Coalition secured 37.4 percent of the vote and will likely send 21 MEPs to Brussels. The PiS party, which repeatedly took anti-European stances during the campaign, received 35.7 percent and 20 seats. The far-right and eurosceptic Konfederacja performed unexpectedly well, becoming the third strongest force with 11.8 percent. The strength of the Civic Coalition came at the expense of its government partners: Third Way and the Left won 7.3 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.
The European elections in the Netherlands had two winners. Frans Timmermans’ GroenLinks won the symbolically important duel with Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) for first place. The joint list of Greens and Social Democrats will send eight MEPs to the European Parliament, one less than before. Geert Wilders’ PVV came in second with six seats, an increase of five seats compared to 2019.
Overall, the far-right in the Netherlands remained stable as Thierry Baudet’s Forum for Democracy (FvD) lost all four of its seats. For Geert Wilders, the result is a setback shortly after the agreement on a coalition government was reached. The two coalition partners BBB and NSC fell short of expectations. The left-liberal D66 gained a seat, while the pro-European Volt secured two mandates.
In the federal parliamentary election held concurrently with the European election, the ruling “Vivaldi” coalition led by Flemish liberal Prime Minister Alexander De Croo predictably lost its majority. De Croo announced his resignation, effective immediately.
In the European election, the far-right Vlaams Belang led, closely followed by the liberals MR and the separatist N-VA. The two right-wing Flemish parties are expected to retain their six seats in the new European Parliament, while the liberals will gain one more seat, totaling three. The social-democratic party Vooruit and the Labour Party (PTB) also gained seats, with each securing two.
For the first time, Austria’s right-wing populist FPÖ won a nationwide election, obtaining 25.7 percent of the vote and six of Austria’s 20 mandates. The conservative ÖVP and the social-democratic SPÖ followed closely with 24.7 percent and 23.2 percent, respectively, each securing five mandates but suffering losses. The Greens, embroiled in a campaign scandal involving their lead candidate Lena Schilling, managed to retain 10.7%, losing one mandate to the liberal NEOS which gained 9.9 percent and two mandates.
The big winners were the NEOS and the FPÖ, which nearly matched its historic best result. The ruling ÖVP and the Greens were punished by voters, with the ÖVP losing almost ten percentage points and the Greens around three. Key election issues included immigration, security, war and environmental and climate action. Voter turnout was about 54 percent.
It remains uncertain who will be Austria’s EU Commissioner, with the ÖVP appearing to have the best chance despite the Greens having rescinded their government agreement on the matter. The FPÖ insists that the Commissioner should be appointed after the national elections in the fall.
Almut Siefert, Isabel Cuesta, Andrzej Rybak, Stephan Israel, Eric Bonse and Lukas Bayer
Number mix-up: Europe eagerly awaited the first provisional seat projection for the tenth European Parliament shortly after 11 p.m., when a number mix-up occurred. Jaume Duch Guillot, the Parliament spokesperson, read numbers from a sheet, but the graphic behind him displayed a different seat distribution. Parliamentary President Roberta Metsola finally interrupted: “No, no, no.” The confusion was significant, with news agencies initially reporting incorrect numbers. The official correction didn’t come until just before midnight.
“Nope”: While the CDU exerted all its efforts to pressure Chancellor Olaf Scholz regarding new elections after the vote, Scholz shrugged it off on election night. According to “Spiegel“, he cheerfully accepted numerous selfie requests from comrades at the Willy Brandt House. However, when asked for a statement on the election outcome, his response was simply: “Nope.”
“That could have been better”: Green top candidate Bas Eickhout summed up the Greens’ results in Germany with this comment shortly after the election – hitting the nail on the head. Unlike his German co-leader Terry Reintke, the Dutchman succeeded in making the joint list of the Greens and the Labour Party the strongest force in the Netherlands.
