Dear reader,
The Commission’s proposal to regulate plants obtained using so-called new genomic techniques (NGT) has mobilized the opposition of organic farming associations. They and all other food producers, for whom the “no genetic engineering” label has been important to date, fear for their business model if “new genetic engineering” is approved in the EU.
The draft law is intended to ensure that plants produced using new techniques that could also be created through evolution or conventional breeding receive approval. Agricultural companies in Europe are calling for a green light from Brussels to compensate for the competitive disadvantage compared to markets such as the USA and Latin America, where they are already permitted.
There are now signs of a compromise. Rapporteur Jessica Polfjärd from the EPP proposes that the new breeding techniques should not be used in organic farming. In addition, the seeds should be labeled. The vote in the ENVI Environment Committee will likely attract much attention. It will indicate whether the compromise, which also protects the interests of the organic sector, will have a chance in the final vote in plenary.
Have a good day!
Feature
EU prepares for Trump’s return
“We Europeans really must take our fate into our own hands”, said Angela Merkel. That was in 2017 and Donald Trump had only just taken office as POTUS. The then-chancellor gave a speech in a Munich beer tent that attracted worldwide attention.
It was a wake-up call, but have the words been followed by concrete action?
Ahead of a possible comeback by Donald Trump, anxious questions are once again being asked in Brussels at the headquarters of the EU and NATO. Is Europe prepared this time? There are professional Europeans and optimists among the diplomats who see the glass as at least half full: Europe has strengthened its resilience and learned the most important lessons, they argue. The EU has filled the concept of strategic autonomy with content. Companies have diversified their supply chains and reduced dependencies, says one diplomat.
The EU now has the so-called strategic compass, an action plan to strengthen its own security and defense capabilities by 2030. And with the Peace Facility, for the first time a joint pot of money to buy war material – from which Ukraine in particular benefits. Through the Defense Agency, joint investments are being made in research and development for the armaments of tomorrow. All unimaginable just a few years ago.
NATO countries spend more on defense
A well-coiffed Donald Trump could also welcome positive developments at the next NATO summit and add them to his own account. No longer just three, but at least ten allies are now achieving the goal of spending at least two percent of economic output on defense, which NATO set itself in 2014 after the Russian annexation of Crimea. But Trump would not be Trump if he did not emphasize during a comeback that the majority still do not meet the target or, like Germany, do not meet it permanently.
And the EU, too, has so far only taken baby steps towards independence. This can be seen again in the laborious preparations for the naval operation in the Red Sea – after all, the most important lifeline for the European economy and subject to attacks by the Yemeni Houthi rebels since the war over Gaza. Meanwhile, the USA and Great Britain have long been on the ground. Or the difficulties in overcoming Hungary’s veto and increasing the Peace Facility’s funds in order to continue supporting Ukraine with military aid from the member states.
Defense to become a priority for new Commission
It is therefore not surprising that more and more critical voices are saying that the glass is “half empty” and that Europe is ill-equipped. Ever since the first Republican primary in Iowa with Donald Trump’s clear victory, alarm bells have been ringing in Brussels and many capitals, says Siegfried Mureșan, influential deputy leader of the Christian Democrats in the European Parliament. Unfortunately, after the election of Joe Biden, the Trump presidency was seen as a slip-up, and precious time was lost.
The EU must now put its money where its mouth is. Security and defense must be a “strategic priority” of the next Commission, the Romanian demands. There must be a dedicated Commissioner for Security and Defense. Priority must be given to enlargement and the neighborhood policy to bring Ukraine, Moldova, and the Balkan states closer to the EU as quickly as possible.
Ukraine deal at Europe’s expense?
Reinhard Bütikofer, an expert on the USA and China, warns against “waiting with sedate fatalism to see if the snake snaps”. The Europeans now urgently need to think about a Plan B, for example, agreeing to supply Ukraine with everything it needs to stand up to Vladimir Putin. Nathalie Loiseau, a liberal MEP from France and close confidante of President Emmanuel Macron, calls for the continent to take on more responsibility, especially in its neighborhood.
Concerns are particularly high concerning Ukraine. Trump likes to present himself as a dealmaker and could push Kyiv into peace negotiations – against Europe’s interests if necessary: “The situation in Ukraine is so terrible. We will see to it that it is resolved”, Trump recently promised. How exactly, he left open. However, one thing seems clear: He is unlikely to continue the massive financial and arms aid to Kyiv in this way. “We are giving away so much equipment that we have no ammunition for ourselves at the moment,” he claimed.
Difficult discussion about defensibility
Trump would probably have enough leverage. After all, he could also question the USA’s support for NATO as POTUS. At the end of his first term in office, the 77-year-old is said to have threatened not to provide military aid in the event of an attack on Europe – and thus to ignore the alliance commitment. This was recently claimed by EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton at a panel discussion in the EU Parliament. The US Congress has therefore already made provisions by law: In the future, no POTUS may suspend or terminate NATO membership without a corresponding act of Congress or the approval of two-thirds of the Senate.
However, the Europeans will hardly be able to avoid a difficult discussion about their ability to defend themselves. At the special summit on Feb. 1, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will urge his colleagues from the other EU states to supply more weapons and equipment to Ukraine. At Berlin’s insistence, the Peace Facility is also to be repurposed to promote joint arms procurement. Breton also recently launched the idea of creating a €100 billion European defense fund.
In Berlin, such announcements are still being received cautiously. However, some in the German government are also beginning to suspect that Germany may have to spend significantly more than two percent of its economic output on defense soon – possibly in conjunction with its European allies. Trump could act as a catalyst for this discussion, which has so far only taken place behind the scenes.
IRA: EU companies also suffer from uncertainty
In the race for the green transformation of the economy, the cards are also likely to be reshuffled with Trump in the White House. The former president has repeatedly announced his intention to reverse Joe Biden’s industrial policy programs such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Trump sometimes described them as a “green scam” that would cost jobs and make energy expensive. “Wind turbines rust, they rot, they kill the birds”, Trump said in a campaign video. Instead, he wants to expand oil and gas exploration.
However, analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit expect widespread resistance to Trump’s plans. “We assume that the private sector will fight back”, says a report. In addition, Republican-dominated areas of the country will benefit particularly strongly from the investments that have been initiated, meaning that many of Trump’s party colleagues also support the measures.
However, Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, Senior Advisor at the Bertelsmann Stiftung, expects the Republicans to withdraw the IRA, at least in its current form – simply because it is a Democratic bill. Many European companies also benefit from the tax incentives, “which would mean major planning uncertainties for them”, warns the expert.
Trump to put ‘tariff ring’ around the US economy
However, the EU, the United States’ second-largest trading partner, would have to expect even more punitive tariffs than before. Trump is already discussing a plan with his advisors to put a “ring around the American economy”. His latest idea: A basic tariff of ten percent for everyone. The most recent American average was 3.4 percent.
US business representatives are already warning of a possible trade war that goes beyond the steel and aluminum tariffs from Trump’s first term. Imposing tariffs and no longer concluding agreements would mean “damaging our own economy”, said Suzanne Clark, President of the American Chamber of Commerce, at the virtual annual meeting a few days ago.
Clüver Ashbrook therefore advises: “The EU should try to win over other allies such as the Mercosur states, India or Australia on strategic issues that contribute to European competitiveness. Unfortunately, however, it has not been particularly successful in this recently.” With Laurin Meyer
- European Defense
- Trump 2024
EU strategy: Brussels wants to safeguard technology against China
The EU Commission will present its vision for economic risk minimization on Wednesday. The economic security package includes initiatives covering five areas. Brussels’ strategy aims to counter China and Russia’s growing readiness to exploit trade and critical supply chains for geopolitical purposes. The draft of the economic security package is available to Table.Media. Bloomberg and Politico had previously reported on the plans.
The publication of the package follows last June’s announcement of a strategy. At the time, however, only Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager openly said that Beijing was the focus of efforts. China is only mentioned by name once in the strategy documents. Vestager emphasized that it was a country-independent strategy – but with a “geopolitical filter.”
Minimum standards expected for investment screening
The package includes initiatives for:
- Tightening the regulation on foreign direct investment: The EU Commission wants to oblige all member states to screen foreign investments for risks to security and order and plug any gaps. A regulation on investment screening has been in place for over three years, and the EU Commission intends to revise it. So far, only 21 of the 27 member states have set up corresponding official structures. The regulation, which entered into force in 2020, created a cooperation mechanism to allow member states to exchange information on problematic investments. However, the European Court of Auditors criticized the fact that governments retained a great deal of leeway, such as which investments they classify as critical or how they determine whether an investor from a non-EU country is inspected. The Brussels-based authority now wants to set minimum standards that national authorities must adhere to in their audits. The focus here is on investments in European companies involved in important EU programs or operating in certain sectors of particular relevance to security and order. Other Member States and the Commission can also submit their own assessments of a planned investment in another EU country. The Commission’s proposal aims to tighten this up so that the screening authority actually takes these opinions into account.
- Better monitoring to prevent the transfer of sensitive expertise through European foreign investments: Investments by European companies in non-EU countries are also to be subject to authorization under certain conditions. However, the authority has postponed the legislative proposal for such so-called outbound investments for the time being, as Table.Media exclusively reported. Instead, it is presenting a white paper. According to the press release, the discussions in the expert group revealed that more preparatory work was needed. The aim is to assess the need for further action with the member states after twelve months.
- More support for dual-use technology research: In a white paper, the European Commission proposes steps to promote research and development related to dual-use technologies. This refers to technologies that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. The EU Commission would like to promote synergy between civilian and military research and improve existing EU funding in programs, such as the EU Defense Innovation Scheme (EUDIS) under the European Defense Fund (EDF). The potential for a special instrument focussing on dual-use research and development is also mentioned.
- Greater coordination of export controls on dual-use technologies: Another part of the package concerns a white paper on export controls on dual-use technologies to ensure EU security.
- Ideas for improving research security: The EU Commission recommends that member states create a policy framework for research security “based on a whole-of-government approach, creating support structures and introducing safeguards through funding,” as stated in the draft EU communication. It also calls for incentives for universities and other public and private research organizations to establish research security advisors for due diligence and risk assessments.
Four risk categories
The approach is based on three pillars: “promoting, protecting, partnering.” The strategy also identifies four priority risk categories, including risks in supply chains, physical and cyber security of critical infrastructures, technological security and the risk of instrumentalizing economic dependencies.
Many of the proposals are opinions and recommendations that may take a while to be translated into binding guidelines. How the EU member states adopt the initiatives also plays a role – as many of the points fall within the competence of the EU capitals. The composition of the next EU Commission and how it will pursue the project will also be a key factor. Changes to the draft are also still possible.
The draft states that the new strategy aims to “combat risks to the EU’s economic security.” At the same time, it aims to ensure “that the EU remains a highly attractive destination for business and investment.” The goal is to strengthen the EU’s and member states’ ability to address “ongoing risk assessments related to supply chains, technologies, infrastructure and economic coercion.”
The economic security strategy is generally a first for Brussels. The EU combines security and trade in one strategy for the first time.
- European Commission
- European Defense
- Geopolitics
- Investments
- Military
- Research
- Technology
News
EU foreign ministers agree on naval mission in Red Sea
The EU states have reached a political agreement in principle in favor of a military naval mission to secure merchant shipping in the Red Sea. However, they could not yet say when the naval mission would start, said EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell after a meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels. At the same time, Borrell dampened hopes of a two-state solution to the Middle East conflict. “We are in a preliminary phase”, he said.
The Council meeting was attended by Israel’s chief diplomat Israel Katz and his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority. The Secretary General of the Arab League was also invited to discuss the war in Gaza and the escalation in the Middle East. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called for the preparations for the planned EU naval mission to be completed quickly.
The final details must now be clarified urgently, she said in Brussels. The indiscriminate attacks by the Houthis “are also attacking one of the central arteries of free shipping and therefore also of world trade”. Germany intends to participate in the military operation with the frigate “Hessen”. However, the Bundestag still has to issue a corresponding mandate once the EU plans have been finalized.
EU deploys warships and airborne early warning systems
Nobody has objected to the planned new mission, said Borrell. Nevertheless, some EU countries might not participate. He left open which ones that might be. Spain had recently spoken out against participation. Madrid is now clearing the way. However, there are still some tasks to be completed, said Borrell. “We have to present a legal text and draw up the operational rules.” This could take some time.
It is also still unclear who will take command. Spain and France took the lead in the last naval missions. However, the military operation in the Red Sea is considered more dangerous than previous missions. The aim is to put an end to attacks by militant Islamist Houthis from Yemen and to protect civilian shipping. The EU intends to deploy warships and airborne early warning systems for this purpose.
The EU was less resolute in the dispute over the war in Gaza. The foreign ministers once again spoke out in favor of a two-state solution. They also increased the pressure on Israel to join such a solution. The statements made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were “worrying”, said France’s new Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné. The Palestinians have a right to their own state.
Israel’s foreign minister prevents debate on two-state solution
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) called the two-state idea “the only solution”. “All those who don’t want to know anything about it have so far failed to come up with an alternative”, she said. However, Borrell’s ten-point plan did not receive majority support. According to this plan, the EU, the USA, and the UN should convene a “preparatory peace conference” and draw up an international plan for conflict resolution.
The “parties to the conflict”, i.e. Israel and Palestine, should only be involved in the negotiations once the peace plan is in place. Then, according to Borrell’s proposal, they should negotiate the final details among themselves. “We should no longer talk about the peace process, but instead push ahead with the implementation of the two-state solution”, he said, explaining his proposal. However, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz blocked him.
Katz not only avoided the debate about a two-state solution. He also tried to steer the conversation towards other topics. On his arrival in the Brussels Council building, he presented a photo of a baby taken to Gaza by Hamas. At his meeting with the EU ministers, Katz then showed two videos – one showing the project of an artificial island off the Gaza Strip, the other a rail link from the Middle East to India.
“The minister could have made better use of his time”, said Borrell at the closing press conference. Criticism also came from Riyad Malki, the Foreign Minister of the Palestinian Authority, whom the EU ministers received separately. In other words, not in the presence of Katz. His most urgent concern, a ceasefire, had not been taken up by the EU, he said. Furthermore, the Europeans had failed to clearly condemn Netanyahu for his policies. eb
Business associations call for EU due diligence law to be abandoned
Several business associations have called on the German government and the EU Council Presidency to reject the EU Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) in its current form. In a joint letter, the VCI, VDMA, ZVEI, BGA, Gesamtmetall, the SME association ZGV, the Stiftung Familienunternehmen und Politik, and Textil+Mode urge that the European directive be “stopped”.
The German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act (LkSG) already shows that the “legalization and bureaucratization of processes place an undue burden on companies”, the letter states. Furthermore, the law would not even create a European-level playing field, as no full harmonization is planned. “For German companies, it would tighten up several existing requirements and thus definitively overburden SMEs in particular, demanding the impossible in some cases”, the associations write.
‘An undue burden on companies’
In particular, the associations criticize the agreed civil liability: “It is simply impractical to demand that companies from EU member states should be liable for breaches of duty that occur in their supply chains – and this worldwide.” The often incalculable risks could lead to companies withdrawing from certain regions, the associations warn.
They also disapprove of the obligation for companies to monitor almost all stages of their supply chains. This would be too costly, if at all feasible, given the five to six-figure number of suppliers, some of whom change every year. They are also calling for an exemption for all suppliers and customers based in the EU internal market. The obligation to check business customers must also be prevented.
The EU member states had already agreed on a final legislative text with the Parliament on Dec. 14. Both institutions must now formally adopt the agreement. The Council is already working on this at working level, and the EU ambassadors are expected to discuss it in February.
No agreement at meeting in Chancellery
The position of the German government has not yet been determined. At a meeting in the Chancellery on Friday, Wolfgang Schmidt, Ministers Hubertus Heil, Robert Habeck and Marco Buschmann were unable to agree on a common line. This was reported to Table.Media by government circles. The meeting had been scheduled following FDP leader Christian Lindner’s criticism of the German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act (LkSG) and the FDP Executive Committee’s rejection of the CSDDD.
Among other things, the four ministers discussed what improvements the European regulation could bring for companies compared to the German regulation, for example in terms of reporting obligations. According to the LkSG, companies report their risk analyses to the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bafa). In the future, the reports could become part of the annual report and be certified by auditors. The Bafa would remain responsible for reviewing complaints, among other things. There are also likely to be further simplifications, such as new options for prioritizing regions according to risk or the use of audits.
The coalition partners are trying to find a solution that will enable the FDP to agree to the directive after all. This could include faster implementation of the CSDDD in Germany so that companies can benefit from its simplifications sooner. At the same time, however, the CSDDD is more stringent than the LKSG in some respects. For example, more companies will be covered and access to courts will be simplified for those affected. cd, leo
AI Act: Final text under review
The German government, numerous associations and non-governmental organizations have had plenty of reading material since the weekend: The Belgian Council Presidency has sent out the long-awaited written version of the AI Act. The PDF version of the four-column document has 892 pages. It remains to be seen whether the painstakingly worked-out compromise on the AI Regulation will actually receive a majority in Parliament and Council.
The text that has now been sent out is based on the political agreement reached in the trilogue on the AI Act. It was only reached verbally after marathon negotiations on the night of Dec. 9, 2023. An initial written version was only available shortly before Christmas. The negotiating teams then clarified the details at a technical level. This once again revealed considerable differences between the positions of the Council and Parliament.
German government likely to abstain
There are some indications that the German Government will not be able to agree on a vote in the Council. The Federal Ministries of Economic Affairs and Justice are in charge. Robert Habeck’s (Greens) Ministry will probably agree. They will “examine the final text and then coordinate the German vote”, they said on Monday. Innovation-friendly regulation that creates acceptance and trust in the technology is key for the German government. Resistance is to be expected from Volker Wissing’s (FDP) digital ministry, which is particularly opposed to the regulation of general-purpose AI models (GPAI models).
It is generally expected that France will vote against the AI Act in the Council, while Germany will abstain. It remains to be seen how many member states will join France. However, it is rather unlikely that a majority in the Council will allow the law, which many consider to be geostrategically important and groundbreaking, to fall through so shortly before the 2024 European elections.
Voting behavior in the EU Parliament is also difficult to predict. The Parliament had to make some compromises, which some are not prepared to accept. Shadow rapporteur Svenja Hahn and probably other FDP MEPs want to reject the law. The regulations on biometric recognition in public spaces posed a threat to civil rights. However, as Renew MEP Dragoş Tudorache is one of the two rapporteurs, the Renew Group will not vote unanimously.
Agreement is also expected from the S&D, the group of the second rapporteur Brando Benifei. In the Libe Committee on Monday, Birgit Sippel (SPD) said that some things had to be viewed critically, such as biometric surveillance in public spaces. But there is also a lot to be proud of.
Vote in Parliament will not be sure-fire success
Shadow rapporteur Axel Voss (CDU) said that he was satisfied that it had been possible to reach a compromise between the diametrically opposed positions. However, he criticized the fact that the law did not create legal certainty. Nothing had been learned from the experience with the GDPR. Voss expects interpretation problems and chaos of competencies in monitoring, which is not good for the internal market: “We should have been bolder here.”
Shadow rapporteur Sergey Lagodinsky (Greens), who is campaigning for approval, explained that he too would have liked to see stricter requirements for biometric surveillance in particular. However, he could sleep more soundly as the law would create minimum standards and there would then be “no more Wild West” for surveillance with AI. Each member state is free to set stricter regulations.
Nevertheless, the Greens/EFA group will not vote unanimously either, as the Pirate Party will vote against it. Patrick Breyer is convinced that biometric mass surveillance will lead “Europe into a dystopian future of a distrustful high-tech surveillance state based on the Chinese model”.
There is not much time left to examine the text anyway. The votes on the AI Act are due to take place in plenary and in the Council at the end of February or the beginning of March. vis
- Künstliche Intelligenz-Verordnung
Macron on Schäuble: France has lost a friend
Emmanuel Macron paid tribute to the services of Wolfgang Schäuble to Franco-German relations in the Bundestag at the state funeral. Germany had lost a statesman, Europe a pillar and France a friend, said the President in his speech, which was largely delivered in German. The fact that the voice of a Frenchman could be heard in the Bundestag on this occasion was thanks to “the friendship of this great German”. He said of Schäuble and Jacques Delors, who died shortly afterwards, that two European masterminds had passed away just one night apart. He honored them as links who “gave everything for their countries and for Europe”. Both were also awarded the Charlemagne Prize exactly 20 years apart, most recently Schäuble in 2012.
The day of the act of state coincided with several anniversaries. In addition to the Élysée Treaty, the Treaty of Aachen was also signed on Jan. 22 as a sign of friendship between the two countries. On Jan. 22, 2018, Schäuble, who is considered the driving force behind the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly, also addressed the National Assembly in Paris. Macron was accompanied at the state ceremony by a large delegation of cabinet and parliament members, including Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire. ob
- Bundestag
- Emmanuel Macron
- Emmanuel Macron
- France
- Germany
Dessert
In the Family Party in the European Parliament, the mandate passes from father to son
Family Party – the name says it all. The Family Party, which is represented by a Member of the European Parliament, is now undergoing a generational change. This is to be taken literally. The party’s chairman, Helmut Geuking, is stepping down as a Member of the European Parliament and handing over to his son. Niels Geuking, the party’s secretary, will take his first seat in the plenary session in Strasbourg next week.
Geuking Senior is 60 years old, Geuking Junior takes over at the age of 31. This is not a case of nepotism, it is all above board. Geuking Junior is the successor to Geuking Senior. The parliamentary administration has already been informed. Passing on the mandate within one’s own family is probably only possible in the family-oriented small party.
Pöttering did not succeed in changing generations
A similar attempt in the CDU state association of Lower Saxony failed in 2013. Benedict Pöttering, the son of long-time MEP Hans-Gert Pöttering, stood at the 2013 state delegates’ meeting and wanted to become a candidate. After 35 years in the European Parliament, Hans-Gert Pöttering, the former President of the Parliament, would probably have liked his son to take over.
But son Benedict lost by the narrowest of margins to Jens Gieseke, who entered Strasbourg in 2014 and has made a name for himself as a transport expert. But back to the Geukings: Father and son explain the background in a video they posted on YouTube: The move is not to be understood as a “resignation”, but as an “expansion of the mandate to two people, i.e. on four shoulders”. Geuking senior will use the offices in Strasbourg and Brussels to which he is entitled as an ex-MEP. He will also continue to attend meetings, albeit free of charge in the future. Father and son have announced that they will “work hand in hand for the good of the people”. Father and son as an MEP double pack. A mandate in two forms, if you like. One thing remains to be said: The family party is not given more weight in the votes. The double Geukings are only allowed to cast one vote. Markus Grabitz
Europe.table editorial team
EUROPE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE
Dear reader,
The Commission’s proposal to regulate plants obtained using so-called new genomic techniques (NGT) has mobilized the opposition of organic farming associations. They and all other food producers, for whom the “no genetic engineering” label has been important to date, fear for their business model if “new genetic engineering” is approved in the EU.
The draft law is intended to ensure that plants produced using new techniques that could also be created through evolution or conventional breeding receive approval. Agricultural companies in Europe are calling for a green light from Brussels to compensate for the competitive disadvantage compared to markets such as the USA and Latin America, where they are already permitted.
There are now signs of a compromise. Rapporteur Jessica Polfjärd from the EPP proposes that the new breeding techniques should not be used in organic farming. In addition, the seeds should be labeled. The vote in the ENVI Environment Committee will likely attract much attention. It will indicate whether the compromise, which also protects the interests of the organic sector, will have a chance in the final vote in plenary.
Have a good day!
Feature
EU prepares for Trump’s return
“We Europeans really must take our fate into our own hands”, said Angela Merkel. That was in 2017 and Donald Trump had only just taken office as POTUS. The then-chancellor gave a speech in a Munich beer tent that attracted worldwide attention.
It was a wake-up call, but have the words been followed by concrete action?
Ahead of a possible comeback by Donald Trump, anxious questions are once again being asked in Brussels at the headquarters of the EU and NATO. Is Europe prepared this time? There are professional Europeans and optimists among the diplomats who see the glass as at least half full: Europe has strengthened its resilience and learned the most important lessons, they argue. The EU has filled the concept of strategic autonomy with content. Companies have diversified their supply chains and reduced dependencies, says one diplomat.
The EU now has the so-called strategic compass, an action plan to strengthen its own security and defense capabilities by 2030. And with the Peace Facility, for the first time a joint pot of money to buy war material – from which Ukraine in particular benefits. Through the Defense Agency, joint investments are being made in research and development for the armaments of tomorrow. All unimaginable just a few years ago.
NATO countries spend more on defense
A well-coiffed Donald Trump could also welcome positive developments at the next NATO summit and add them to his own account. No longer just three, but at least ten allies are now achieving the goal of spending at least two percent of economic output on defense, which NATO set itself in 2014 after the Russian annexation of Crimea. But Trump would not be Trump if he did not emphasize during a comeback that the majority still do not meet the target or, like Germany, do not meet it permanently.
And the EU, too, has so far only taken baby steps towards independence. This can be seen again in the laborious preparations for the naval operation in the Red Sea – after all, the most important lifeline for the European economy and subject to attacks by the Yemeni Houthi rebels since the war over Gaza. Meanwhile, the USA and Great Britain have long been on the ground. Or the difficulties in overcoming Hungary’s veto and increasing the Peace Facility’s funds in order to continue supporting Ukraine with military aid from the member states.
Defense to become a priority for new Commission
It is therefore not surprising that more and more critical voices are saying that the glass is “half empty” and that Europe is ill-equipped. Ever since the first Republican primary in Iowa with Donald Trump’s clear victory, alarm bells have been ringing in Brussels and many capitals, says Siegfried Mureșan, influential deputy leader of the Christian Democrats in the European Parliament. Unfortunately, after the election of Joe Biden, the Trump presidency was seen as a slip-up, and precious time was lost.
The EU must now put its money where its mouth is. Security and defense must be a “strategic priority” of the next Commission, the Romanian demands. There must be a dedicated Commissioner for Security and Defense. Priority must be given to enlargement and the neighborhood policy to bring Ukraine, Moldova, and the Balkan states closer to the EU as quickly as possible.
Ukraine deal at Europe’s expense?
Reinhard Bütikofer, an expert on the USA and China, warns against “waiting with sedate fatalism to see if the snake snaps”. The Europeans now urgently need to think about a Plan B, for example, agreeing to supply Ukraine with everything it needs to stand up to Vladimir Putin. Nathalie Loiseau, a liberal MEP from France and close confidante of President Emmanuel Macron, calls for the continent to take on more responsibility, especially in its neighborhood.
Concerns are particularly high concerning Ukraine. Trump likes to present himself as a dealmaker and could push Kyiv into peace negotiations – against Europe’s interests if necessary: “The situation in Ukraine is so terrible. We will see to it that it is resolved”, Trump recently promised. How exactly, he left open. However, one thing seems clear: He is unlikely to continue the massive financial and arms aid to Kyiv in this way. “We are giving away so much equipment that we have no ammunition for ourselves at the moment,” he claimed.
Difficult discussion about defensibility
Trump would probably have enough leverage. After all, he could also question the USA’s support for NATO as POTUS. At the end of his first term in office, the 77-year-old is said to have threatened not to provide military aid in the event of an attack on Europe – and thus to ignore the alliance commitment. This was recently claimed by EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton at a panel discussion in the EU Parliament. The US Congress has therefore already made provisions by law: In the future, no POTUS may suspend or terminate NATO membership without a corresponding act of Congress or the approval of two-thirds of the Senate.
However, the Europeans will hardly be able to avoid a difficult discussion about their ability to defend themselves. At the special summit on Feb. 1, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will urge his colleagues from the other EU states to supply more weapons and equipment to Ukraine. At Berlin’s insistence, the Peace Facility is also to be repurposed to promote joint arms procurement. Breton also recently launched the idea of creating a €100 billion European defense fund.
In Berlin, such announcements are still being received cautiously. However, some in the German government are also beginning to suspect that Germany may have to spend significantly more than two percent of its economic output on defense soon – possibly in conjunction with its European allies. Trump could act as a catalyst for this discussion, which has so far only taken place behind the scenes.
IRA: EU companies also suffer from uncertainty
In the race for the green transformation of the economy, the cards are also likely to be reshuffled with Trump in the White House. The former president has repeatedly announced his intention to reverse Joe Biden’s industrial policy programs such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Trump sometimes described them as a “green scam” that would cost jobs and make energy expensive. “Wind turbines rust, they rot, they kill the birds”, Trump said in a campaign video. Instead, he wants to expand oil and gas exploration.
However, analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit expect widespread resistance to Trump’s plans. “We assume that the private sector will fight back”, says a report. In addition, Republican-dominated areas of the country will benefit particularly strongly from the investments that have been initiated, meaning that many of Trump’s party colleagues also support the measures.
However, Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, Senior Advisor at the Bertelsmann Stiftung, expects the Republicans to withdraw the IRA, at least in its current form – simply because it is a Democratic bill. Many European companies also benefit from the tax incentives, “which would mean major planning uncertainties for them”, warns the expert.
Trump to put ‘tariff ring’ around the US economy
However, the EU, the United States’ second-largest trading partner, would have to expect even more punitive tariffs than before. Trump is already discussing a plan with his advisors to put a “ring around the American economy”. His latest idea: A basic tariff of ten percent for everyone. The most recent American average was 3.4 percent.
US business representatives are already warning of a possible trade war that goes beyond the steel and aluminum tariffs from Trump’s first term. Imposing tariffs and no longer concluding agreements would mean “damaging our own economy”, said Suzanne Clark, President of the American Chamber of Commerce, at the virtual annual meeting a few days ago.
Clüver Ashbrook therefore advises: “The EU should try to win over other allies such as the Mercosur states, India or Australia on strategic issues that contribute to European competitiveness. Unfortunately, however, it has not been particularly successful in this recently.” With Laurin Meyer
- European Defense
- Trump 2024
EU strategy: Brussels wants to safeguard technology against China
The EU Commission will present its vision for economic risk minimization on Wednesday. The economic security package includes initiatives covering five areas. Brussels’ strategy aims to counter China and Russia’s growing readiness to exploit trade and critical supply chains for geopolitical purposes. The draft of the economic security package is available to Table.Media. Bloomberg and Politico had previously reported on the plans.
The publication of the package follows last June’s announcement of a strategy. At the time, however, only Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager openly said that Beijing was the focus of efforts. China is only mentioned by name once in the strategy documents. Vestager emphasized that it was a country-independent strategy – but with a “geopolitical filter.”
Minimum standards expected for investment screening
The package includes initiatives for:
- Tightening the regulation on foreign direct investment: The EU Commission wants to oblige all member states to screen foreign investments for risks to security and order and plug any gaps. A regulation on investment screening has been in place for over three years, and the EU Commission intends to revise it. So far, only 21 of the 27 member states have set up corresponding official structures. The regulation, which entered into force in 2020, created a cooperation mechanism to allow member states to exchange information on problematic investments. However, the European Court of Auditors criticized the fact that governments retained a great deal of leeway, such as which investments they classify as critical or how they determine whether an investor from a non-EU country is inspected. The Brussels-based authority now wants to set minimum standards that national authorities must adhere to in their audits. The focus here is on investments in European companies involved in important EU programs or operating in certain sectors of particular relevance to security and order. Other Member States and the Commission can also submit their own assessments of a planned investment in another EU country. The Commission’s proposal aims to tighten this up so that the screening authority actually takes these opinions into account.
- Better monitoring to prevent the transfer of sensitive expertise through European foreign investments: Investments by European companies in non-EU countries are also to be subject to authorization under certain conditions. However, the authority has postponed the legislative proposal for such so-called outbound investments for the time being, as Table.Media exclusively reported. Instead, it is presenting a white paper. According to the press release, the discussions in the expert group revealed that more preparatory work was needed. The aim is to assess the need for further action with the member states after twelve months.
- More support for dual-use technology research: In a white paper, the European Commission proposes steps to promote research and development related to dual-use technologies. This refers to technologies that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. The EU Commission would like to promote synergy between civilian and military research and improve existing EU funding in programs, such as the EU Defense Innovation Scheme (EUDIS) under the European Defense Fund (EDF). The potential for a special instrument focussing on dual-use research and development is also mentioned.
- Greater coordination of export controls on dual-use technologies: Another part of the package concerns a white paper on export controls on dual-use technologies to ensure EU security.
- Ideas for improving research security: The EU Commission recommends that member states create a policy framework for research security “based on a whole-of-government approach, creating support structures and introducing safeguards through funding,” as stated in the draft EU communication. It also calls for incentives for universities and other public and private research organizations to establish research security advisors for due diligence and risk assessments.
Four risk categories
The approach is based on three pillars: “promoting, protecting, partnering.” The strategy also identifies four priority risk categories, including risks in supply chains, physical and cyber security of critical infrastructures, technological security and the risk of instrumentalizing economic dependencies.
Many of the proposals are opinions and recommendations that may take a while to be translated into binding guidelines. How the EU member states adopt the initiatives also plays a role – as many of the points fall within the competence of the EU capitals. The composition of the next EU Commission and how it will pursue the project will also be a key factor. Changes to the draft are also still possible.
The draft states that the new strategy aims to “combat risks to the EU’s economic security.” At the same time, it aims to ensure “that the EU remains a highly attractive destination for business and investment.” The goal is to strengthen the EU’s and member states’ ability to address “ongoing risk assessments related to supply chains, technologies, infrastructure and economic coercion.”
The economic security strategy is generally a first for Brussels. The EU combines security and trade in one strategy for the first time.
- European Commission
- European Defense
- Geopolitics
- Investments
- Military
- Research
- Technology
News
EU foreign ministers agree on naval mission in Red Sea
The EU states have reached a political agreement in principle in favor of a military naval mission to secure merchant shipping in the Red Sea. However, they could not yet say when the naval mission would start, said EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell after a meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels. At the same time, Borrell dampened hopes of a two-state solution to the Middle East conflict. “We are in a preliminary phase”, he said.
The Council meeting was attended by Israel’s chief diplomat Israel Katz and his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority. The Secretary General of the Arab League was also invited to discuss the war in Gaza and the escalation in the Middle East. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called for the preparations for the planned EU naval mission to be completed quickly.
The final details must now be clarified urgently, she said in Brussels. The indiscriminate attacks by the Houthis “are also attacking one of the central arteries of free shipping and therefore also of world trade”. Germany intends to participate in the military operation with the frigate “Hessen”. However, the Bundestag still has to issue a corresponding mandate once the EU plans have been finalized.
EU deploys warships and airborne early warning systems
Nobody has objected to the planned new mission, said Borrell. Nevertheless, some EU countries might not participate. He left open which ones that might be. Spain had recently spoken out against participation. Madrid is now clearing the way. However, there are still some tasks to be completed, said Borrell. “We have to present a legal text and draw up the operational rules.” This could take some time.
It is also still unclear who will take command. Spain and France took the lead in the last naval missions. However, the military operation in the Red Sea is considered more dangerous than previous missions. The aim is to put an end to attacks by militant Islamist Houthis from Yemen and to protect civilian shipping. The EU intends to deploy warships and airborne early warning systems for this purpose.
The EU was less resolute in the dispute over the war in Gaza. The foreign ministers once again spoke out in favor of a two-state solution. They also increased the pressure on Israel to join such a solution. The statements made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were “worrying”, said France’s new Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné. The Palestinians have a right to their own state.
Israel’s foreign minister prevents debate on two-state solution
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) called the two-state idea “the only solution”. “All those who don’t want to know anything about it have so far failed to come up with an alternative”, she said. However, Borrell’s ten-point plan did not receive majority support. According to this plan, the EU, the USA, and the UN should convene a “preparatory peace conference” and draw up an international plan for conflict resolution.
The “parties to the conflict”, i.e. Israel and Palestine, should only be involved in the negotiations once the peace plan is in place. Then, according to Borrell’s proposal, they should negotiate the final details among themselves. “We should no longer talk about the peace process, but instead push ahead with the implementation of the two-state solution”, he said, explaining his proposal. However, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz blocked him.
Katz not only avoided the debate about a two-state solution. He also tried to steer the conversation towards other topics. On his arrival in the Brussels Council building, he presented a photo of a baby taken to Gaza by Hamas. At his meeting with the EU ministers, Katz then showed two videos – one showing the project of an artificial island off the Gaza Strip, the other a rail link from the Middle East to India.
“The minister could have made better use of his time”, said Borrell at the closing press conference. Criticism also came from Riyad Malki, the Foreign Minister of the Palestinian Authority, whom the EU ministers received separately. In other words, not in the presence of Katz. His most urgent concern, a ceasefire, had not been taken up by the EU, he said. Furthermore, the Europeans had failed to clearly condemn Netanyahu for his policies. eb
Business associations call for EU due diligence law to be abandoned
Several business associations have called on the German government and the EU Council Presidency to reject the EU Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) in its current form. In a joint letter, the VCI, VDMA, ZVEI, BGA, Gesamtmetall, the SME association ZGV, the Stiftung Familienunternehmen und Politik, and Textil+Mode urge that the European directive be “stopped”.
The German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act (LkSG) already shows that the “legalization and bureaucratization of processes place an undue burden on companies”, the letter states. Furthermore, the law would not even create a European-level playing field, as no full harmonization is planned. “For German companies, it would tighten up several existing requirements and thus definitively overburden SMEs in particular, demanding the impossible in some cases”, the associations write.
‘An undue burden on companies’
In particular, the associations criticize the agreed civil liability: “It is simply impractical to demand that companies from EU member states should be liable for breaches of duty that occur in their supply chains – and this worldwide.” The often incalculable risks could lead to companies withdrawing from certain regions, the associations warn.
They also disapprove of the obligation for companies to monitor almost all stages of their supply chains. This would be too costly, if at all feasible, given the five to six-figure number of suppliers, some of whom change every year. They are also calling for an exemption for all suppliers and customers based in the EU internal market. The obligation to check business customers must also be prevented.
The EU member states had already agreed on a final legislative text with the Parliament on Dec. 14. Both institutions must now formally adopt the agreement. The Council is already working on this at working level, and the EU ambassadors are expected to discuss it in February.
No agreement at meeting in Chancellery
The position of the German government has not yet been determined. At a meeting in the Chancellery on Friday, Wolfgang Schmidt, Ministers Hubertus Heil, Robert Habeck and Marco Buschmann were unable to agree on a common line. This was reported to Table.Media by government circles. The meeting had been scheduled following FDP leader Christian Lindner’s criticism of the German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act (LkSG) and the FDP Executive Committee’s rejection of the CSDDD.
Among other things, the four ministers discussed what improvements the European regulation could bring for companies compared to the German regulation, for example in terms of reporting obligations. According to the LkSG, companies report their risk analyses to the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bafa). In the future, the reports could become part of the annual report and be certified by auditors. The Bafa would remain responsible for reviewing complaints, among other things. There are also likely to be further simplifications, such as new options for prioritizing regions according to risk or the use of audits.
The coalition partners are trying to find a solution that will enable the FDP to agree to the directive after all. This could include faster implementation of the CSDDD in Germany so that companies can benefit from its simplifications sooner. At the same time, however, the CSDDD is more stringent than the LKSG in some respects. For example, more companies will be covered and access to courts will be simplified for those affected. cd, leo
AI Act: Final text under review
The German government, numerous associations and non-governmental organizations have had plenty of reading material since the weekend: The Belgian Council Presidency has sent out the long-awaited written version of the AI Act. The PDF version of the four-column document has 892 pages. It remains to be seen whether the painstakingly worked-out compromise on the AI Regulation will actually receive a majority in Parliament and Council.
The text that has now been sent out is based on the political agreement reached in the trilogue on the AI Act. It was only reached verbally after marathon negotiations on the night of Dec. 9, 2023. An initial written version was only available shortly before Christmas. The negotiating teams then clarified the details at a technical level. This once again revealed considerable differences between the positions of the Council and Parliament.
German government likely to abstain
There are some indications that the German Government will not be able to agree on a vote in the Council. The Federal Ministries of Economic Affairs and Justice are in charge. Robert Habeck’s (Greens) Ministry will probably agree. They will “examine the final text and then coordinate the German vote”, they said on Monday. Innovation-friendly regulation that creates acceptance and trust in the technology is key for the German government. Resistance is to be expected from Volker Wissing’s (FDP) digital ministry, which is particularly opposed to the regulation of general-purpose AI models (GPAI models).
It is generally expected that France will vote against the AI Act in the Council, while Germany will abstain. It remains to be seen how many member states will join France. However, it is rather unlikely that a majority in the Council will allow the law, which many consider to be geostrategically important and groundbreaking, to fall through so shortly before the 2024 European elections.
Voting behavior in the EU Parliament is also difficult to predict. The Parliament had to make some compromises, which some are not prepared to accept. Shadow rapporteur Svenja Hahn and probably other FDP MEPs want to reject the law. The regulations on biometric recognition in public spaces posed a threat to civil rights. However, as Renew MEP Dragoş Tudorache is one of the two rapporteurs, the Renew Group will not vote unanimously.
Agreement is also expected from the S&D, the group of the second rapporteur Brando Benifei. In the Libe Committee on Monday, Birgit Sippel (SPD) said that some things had to be viewed critically, such as biometric surveillance in public spaces. But there is also a lot to be proud of.
Vote in Parliament will not be sure-fire success
Shadow rapporteur Axel Voss (CDU) said that he was satisfied that it had been possible to reach a compromise between the diametrically opposed positions. However, he criticized the fact that the law did not create legal certainty. Nothing had been learned from the experience with the GDPR. Voss expects interpretation problems and chaos of competencies in monitoring, which is not good for the internal market: “We should have been bolder here.”
Shadow rapporteur Sergey Lagodinsky (Greens), who is campaigning for approval, explained that he too would have liked to see stricter requirements for biometric surveillance in particular. However, he could sleep more soundly as the law would create minimum standards and there would then be “no more Wild West” for surveillance with AI. Each member state is free to set stricter regulations.
Nevertheless, the Greens/EFA group will not vote unanimously either, as the Pirate Party will vote against it. Patrick Breyer is convinced that biometric mass surveillance will lead “Europe into a dystopian future of a distrustful high-tech surveillance state based on the Chinese model”.
There is not much time left to examine the text anyway. The votes on the AI Act are due to take place in plenary and in the Council at the end of February or the beginning of March. vis
- Künstliche Intelligenz-Verordnung
Macron on Schäuble: France has lost a friend
Emmanuel Macron paid tribute to the services of Wolfgang Schäuble to Franco-German relations in the Bundestag at the state funeral. Germany had lost a statesman, Europe a pillar and France a friend, said the President in his speech, which was largely delivered in German. The fact that the voice of a Frenchman could be heard in the Bundestag on this occasion was thanks to “the friendship of this great German”. He said of Schäuble and Jacques Delors, who died shortly afterwards, that two European masterminds had passed away just one night apart. He honored them as links who “gave everything for their countries and for Europe”. Both were also awarded the Charlemagne Prize exactly 20 years apart, most recently Schäuble in 2012.
The day of the act of state coincided with several anniversaries. In addition to the Élysée Treaty, the Treaty of Aachen was also signed on Jan. 22 as a sign of friendship between the two countries. On Jan. 22, 2018, Schäuble, who is considered the driving force behind the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly, also addressed the National Assembly in Paris. Macron was accompanied at the state ceremony by a large delegation of cabinet and parliament members, including Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire. ob
- Bundestag
- Emmanuel Macron
- Emmanuel Macron
- France
- Germany
Dessert
In the Family Party in the European Parliament, the mandate passes from father to son
Family Party – the name says it all. The Family Party, which is represented by a Member of the European Parliament, is now undergoing a generational change. This is to be taken literally. The party’s chairman, Helmut Geuking, is stepping down as a Member of the European Parliament and handing over to his son. Niels Geuking, the party’s secretary, will take his first seat in the plenary session in Strasbourg next week.
Geuking Senior is 60 years old, Geuking Junior takes over at the age of 31. This is not a case of nepotism, it is all above board. Geuking Junior is the successor to Geuking Senior. The parliamentary administration has already been informed. Passing on the mandate within one’s own family is probably only possible in the family-oriented small party.
Pöttering did not succeed in changing generations
A similar attempt in the CDU state association of Lower Saxony failed in 2013. Benedict Pöttering, the son of long-time MEP Hans-Gert Pöttering, stood at the 2013 state delegates’ meeting and wanted to become a candidate. After 35 years in the European Parliament, Hans-Gert Pöttering, the former President of the Parliament, would probably have liked his son to take over.
But son Benedict lost by the narrowest of margins to Jens Gieseke, who entered Strasbourg in 2014 and has made a name for himself as a transport expert. But back to the Geukings: Father and son explain the background in a video they posted on YouTube: The move is not to be understood as a “resignation”, but as an “expansion of the mandate to two people, i.e. on four shoulders”. Geuking senior will use the offices in Strasbourg and Brussels to which he is entitled as an ex-MEP. He will also continue to attend meetings, albeit free of charge in the future. Father and son have announced that they will “work hand in hand for the good of the people”. Father and son as an MEP double pack. A mandate in two forms, if you like. One thing remains to be said: The family party is not given more weight in the votes. The double Geukings are only allowed to cast one vote. Markus Grabitz
Europe.table editorial team
EUROPE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE
