The shift to the right in many EU countries dominated the political debates yesterday – the shock of the election victories of the Rassemblement National, the FPÖ and the second place for the AfD left many politicians and observers reeling. And yet: the European elections have created relatively clear relations. Not in Paris, Vienna or Berlin, but in Brussels.
The EPP is the clear winner of this election, as the Social Democrats and Liberals also recognize. They now want to negotiate swiftly with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen about a continuation of the current alliance. In view of the new strength of the Christian Democrats, they can hardly be too brash in their demands. The Greens will also likely be involved in the talks soon. Without them, the three members of the previous “Ursula coalition” have a somewhat thin cushion of 39 seats.
The election result also gives the heads of state and government little reason to question the claim of election winner Ursula von der Leyen to a second term in office. Diplomats believe it is realistic that they will be able to agree on a personnel package at the informal dinner next Monday.
The second-placed Social Democrats could therefore provide the President of the European Council; the clear favorite is the former Prime Minister of Portugal, António Costa. The third-placed Liberals would then appoint the Foreign Affairs Commissioner, probably in the person of Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. In this scenario, the EPP could still occupy the top position in the European Parliament, in the person of incumbent Roberta Metsola.
So far, so clear. If national turbulence does not shake up this order after all: in Brussels and Berlin, people are looking anxiously to Paris, where Emmanuel Macron is playing a game of vabanque with the new elections to the National Assembly. There are concerns that the president may not want to make himself vulnerable in the upcoming election campaign by supporting von der Leyen. However, this would mean that France’s president would paralyze the reorganization of the EU for months to come.
The Latvian Commission Vice-President spoke to Table.Briefings on Monday after the European elections. The Latvian EPP list, which he headed, achieved the highest share of votes in the country. Last Monday evening, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa nominated the experienced EU Commissioner for another mandate. Dombrovskis is currently in Berlin for the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference.
Mr. Dombrovskis, what is your first reaction after yesterday’s European elections?
The first conclusion is that pro-European, centrist political forces will continue to have a majority in the European Parliament. The EPP will continue to be the largest and most influential force in the EU. This will enable us to tackle the challenges we face in the next political cycle – strengthening European security and the competitiveness of the EU economy.
You will attend the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin today. What are your expectations of this conference?
It’s an important next step in the work on the Ukraine recovery, which helps us to coordinate this work. Certainly, I hope there are going to be announcements from the EU side, which I’m not in a position now to preannounce, but, besides this public support, it’s important to also ensure private investment and private sector participation in Ukraine reconstruction. And that’s why we welcome the recovery forum, where international businesses and investors will be brought together with Ukrainian companies and also with regional representatives and municipalities to discuss private investment into Ukraine.
The G7 is discussing the frozen Russian assets. The US proposes using the profits from these assets as a guarantee to allow a much larger loan to Ukraine instead of using the profits directly for Ukraine, as the EU Council has suggested. What do you think of the proposal?
We are open to discussing this concept of leveraging this financing flow to provide a substantially larger loan to Ukraine. The exact modalities, whether it’s exactly the US proposal or some kind of cooperative approach where the international community is providing this loan based on leveraging those assets, are still under discussion. But conceptually, we are positive about this idea.
What is the problem with the modalities?
One issue, which is important in this regard, are reassurances that those Russian assets remain immobilized as a basis for this whole leveraging operation. There is, on the one hand, the G7 decision, which says that the Russian assets should stay immobilized for as long as Russia has not paid reparations to Ukraine for the damage it has created. And that will help in this regard. But on the other hand, there is an EU sanctions regime, which foresees a regular renewal of this decision. So, one important question is how to have this long-term certainty for this operation.
When will the Commission announce its provisional decision on electric car tariffs?
We are currently working on this and one can expect that it’s coming soon. I cannot tell the exact date, but it’s coming.
How do you determine how high this tariff should be?
Well, it’s a fact-based investigation. So, what determines the level of tariffs is the volume of countervailable subsidies. It also depends on which extent the companies are cooperating with this investigation. But generally speaking, it’s better for companies to cooperate on this because otherwise we are using presumptions which may not be advantageous for the companies that are not cooperating.
How did the collaboration with Chinese manufacturers go?
Well, I would say there has been a varying degree of cooperation from Chinese companies (laughs)
Could you elaborate further?
With some, cooperation was fairly good, with others, less so.
And when you talk about Chinese manufacturers, do you mean Chinese brands or also European brands that manufacture in China?
It will ultimately impact all Chinese exports to the EU, but specifically, we’re primarily looking at some Chinese brands.
Have you also spoken to German car manufacturers?
Obviously, we’re in contact with member states on these topics. In Germany, views vary a bit about this investigation. But, we think it’s important that we are concluding this investigation because, well, the fact is that China is subsidizing its electrical vehicles industry and that it is giving China a competitive advantage. So, obviously, the aim of this investigation is not to impose some kind of protectionist tariffs, completely banning Chinese manufacturers, but it’s to remove unfair advantages that Chinese manufacturers are having through subsidies.
China is already preparing some countermeasures in case the EU imposes these tariffs. How can the Commission respond? Are you already planning ahead?
It remains to be seen. But, it’s worth noting that the US, for example, has recently imposed 100 percent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Turkey has substantially increased its tariffs. So, currently, the EU market is the largest market open to Chinese manufacturers. And we see the market share of Chinese manufacturers growing very rapidly. So, from that point of view, it is also obviously a risk of injury for European industry. And if we do not react, it will only get worse.
By all accounts, Chinese cars seem to be of very high quality. How will the EU need to change its stance on industrial policy so that Europeans might have the superior cars next time?
First of all, I would say that the EU has many very strong car manufacturers, which also have a strong, competitive position. At the same time, it has to be admitted that European car manufacturers were relatively slow in this move towards electromobility. China may now be a step ahead, so there is some catching up to do. So, our intention is not to protect our industry from competition but just to adjust for unfair competition.
The EU economy is lagging behind the US, as many different statistics show. The industry is very concerned. What does the next Commission need to do differently than the current one?
First of all, it must be said that the European economy is proving to be resilient despite very complicated circumstances. But it’s also true that besides those challenges we are facing right now with Russia’s war, there are also long-term structural challenges that we need to address, like relatively low productivity growth in the EU compared with the U.S. or China, population aging, and relatively high energy prices. And so we’ll have to pay a lot of attention to European economic competitiveness. As you know, the European Commission has come forward with an initiative of a reduction of administrative burden by 25 percent. It’s important that this commitment is followed through.
When can we expect a proposal to reduce bureaucracy?
Well, the European Commission has already started to work on those proposals. We have also launched a call for evidence, asking different stakeholders to provide us evidence of some excessive or unnecessary bureaucratic burden so that we can see the exact places where we can reduce the administrative burden. Obviously, it’s important that this is also reflected in our political priorities for the next Commission and that there is sustained pressure from stakeholders, especially from the business community, so that this is actually being delivered.
Can such a proposal be expected before the end of the year?
At this stage, it’s difficult for me to prejudge the decisions of the next European Commission. But that’s why I emphasize that it’s important that it’s reflected in the political priorities of the next Commission and that there is continuity on this initiative from this Commission to the next Commission.
Germany plays a strong role in the EU economy, but things are looking particularly bad here. What should Germany do differently?
Well, as regards the German economy, we also see strong sides, including a resilient labor market. One area where there will be a need of reinforcement is investment because in terms of public investment, Germany could actually do more. And that would support both, the German economy and the broader European economy.
So, if Germany spends more money, it would boost its and the European economies and probably also reduce the pressure on other, more indebted EU countries. How will you try to sell this idea to the Germans?
As you know, we are coordinating all those issues through the European semester. It has consistently been recommended that Germany step up its level of public investment. I think one important element is that we have recently agreed on a new EU economic governance framework, which actually provides more flexibility for member states to determine their fiscal adjustment path and more possibilities to correct this adjustment path if a country is implementing reforms and investments in line with European priorities. So obviously, we also encourage Germany to use these possibilities.
Following the EPP’s clear election victory, the partners of the previous Von der Leyen Commission want to get together quickly and negotiate a new version of the informal cooperation. The Socialists (S&D) and Liberals (Renew) had already congratulated Ursula von der Leyen on her success on the evening of the election and committed to the top candidate principle. This Tuesday, the leaders of the existing political groups will meet for the first time to discuss whether the election of the Commission President can take place in Strasbourg on July 18 or 19.
With regard to negotiations, SPD MEP Matthias Ecke emphasized: “If there are no factual issues standing in the way, we should tackle this very quickly.” He said at an event organized by Table.Briefings, the European Movement Germany and the North Rhine-Westphalia Representation to the Federal Government that there are expectations regarding the ability of European politicians to act. “And according to initial findings, there are also majorities that make this possible.”
FDP top candidate Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann also calls for cooperation between the pro-European parties. “We have to get this right,” she said at the same event. The nationalist forces must be further marginalized. “There is no such thing as a bit to the right and a bit more to the right. I warn against working with them.”
CDU leader Friedrich Merz forbade any bans on speaking: “The election losers have no right to dictate to us who we may or may not speak to.” EPP lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen wants to negotiate with the Socialists and Liberals first. The “sequence” is very clear, and talks with the S&D and Renew will begin first. “That is the first step,” she said. However, she also hinted at wanting to talk to the Greens. “Further steps can follow from that.” In the election of the Commission President, dissenters from the ranks of the EPP, S&D and Renew must again be expected.
According to the European Parliament’s seat projection, the EPP has 186 seats, the S&D has 135 seats and the Liberals have 79. Together, the three groups of the Von der Leyen coalition have 400 seats. 361 votes are needed to elect the Commission President. The informal coalition therefore does not have a comfortable majority.
The Greens lost 19 seats and now only have 53 seats. In the previous parliament, the Greens were the fourth largest parliamentary group, now they are only in sixth place. The Left Party lost one seat and now only has 36 MPs. The conservative EKR parliamentary group increased its number of seats from 69 to 73, while the radical right-wing ID parliamentary group rose from 49 to 58 seats. The non-attached groups have 45 MPs. These include the Fidesz and AfD MPs. A high-ranking Fidesz official announced that the delegation wanted to join the ECR. 55 new MEPs do not belong to any parliamentary group in the previous parliament, such as the BSW MEPs from Germany.
The majority ratio could still change before the first week of the session in Strasbourg (July 16 to 19). The political groups are trying to recruit parties that have recently entered the European Parliament as members. It cannot be ruled out that new groups will be formed or that groups will break up. A political group must have at least 23 members from seven or more Member States.
Since Sunday, it has become clear that climate action is no longer a compelling campaign theme. In the “climate election” of 2019, the Greens achieved a record result primarily due to their climate action profile. Now, it appears their electoral defeat could be interpreted as a vote on climate policy. But how likely is it that the new European Parliament will block or even reverse climate action measures?
Linda Kalcher, the Executive Director of the Brussels think tank Strategic Perspectives, observes that there has not been a “tectonic shift to the far right“. She believes that far-right extremists will not gain more power over the next five years. Although they have gained ground, the likely majority around the election winner, the European People’s Party (EPP), is unlikely to cooperate with them.
Experts from the European branch of the Climate Action Network (CAN Europe) share a similar view. They stated on Monday that the new majority still has the power to continue the Green Deal. Sven Harmeling, Head of Climate Policy at CAN Europe, also sees “no basis to describe the European elections as a vote against climate policy”.
The results were not uniform across all member states: While many countries saw a shift to the right, others, especially in Scandinavia, saw gains for parties with strong climate policies. “A large majority of people still support strong climate policies, and there are many actors in the economy who know they want and need to invest.”
Ursula von der Leyen, the election winner and current and likely next President of the European Commission, made it clear on Monday that she does not intend to reverse the Green Deal. The EPP’s election program already stated that they would do everything to combat climate change. Now begins a “very important phase of implementation“. Von der Leyen said that talks with industry and agriculture are already underway to determine how to help them achieve their climate goals.
There is consensus in other countries and factions that the Green Deal was not voted down. Krzysztof Bolesta, Poland’s State Secretary for Climate Issues and a member of the European Renew party family, told Reuters that while new measures will be harder to pass, a rollback is very unlikely.
The EPP has not yet commented on whether they will negotiate cooperation with a third faction in addition to the Socialists and Liberals. However, Kalcher believes that if the EPP wants to continue climate action, the Greens are a better choice than Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia. The climate tasks of the next European Commission will differ from the last. Many new initiatives will focus on strengthening industrial competitiveness and energy security. They may not carry the “climate ambitions” label but will reduce emissions and fulfill the Green Deal.
Former Bulgarian Environment Minister Julian Popov criticized the “Green Deal” label on Monday morning. He argued that linking the term “Green” to a political party created a communication problem and contributed to the rejection of climate policy. Kalcher expects the language to change, but the actual measures to remain the same. with Alexandra Endres and Till Hoppe
After President Emmanuel Macron announced his intention to dissolve the National Assembly, there is bewilderment in France. Politicians are frustrated that they are unable to run a proper election campaign. “We don’t have time to nominate all our candidates; we don’t even have time to print posters and leaflets,” complains one French parliamentarian. The first round of voting will take place on June 30, the second on July 7.
Many criticized the French president’s decision as “hasty” and “premature.” The image most often painted in France is that of a president playing with fire and bringing the Rassemblement National to the brink of power.
The political influence of the far-right party led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella has never been greater, both in France and in Europe. Of the 81 French MEPs in the European Parliament, the Rassemblement National sends 30 MEPs to the European Parliament.
This makes it not only the largest delegation of French MEPs but also one of the largest delegations in the European Parliament as a whole: the Rassemblement National now has as many MEPs as the German EPP delegation, which also consists of 30 MEPs. According to a French EU observer, the Rassemblement National wants to use this political weight to seek the chairmanship of the Agriculture Committee in the European Parliament, among other things.
At the European level, Emmanuel Macron’s announcement has the greatest impact at the Council level. The new elections have weakened France’s voice in an important phase of negotiations on the top jobs and the definition of the European Commission’s future roadmap, says Neil Makaroff, Director of the Brussels-based think tank Strategic Perspectives. This is also confirmed by a diplomatic voice from France: “The news of the early elections comes in the middle of the negotiations on the top jobs, and we won’t be there.”
The loss of French influence goes hand in hand with the loss of German influence. “German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will also no longer have the same influence in the Council after the Social Democrats’ weak performance in these elections,” says Makaroff.
He thinks the two European leaders who will emerge stronger from the elections are the Italian Giorgia Meloni and the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. In the Council, Donald Tusk will lead the negotiations for the EPP, says Neil Makaroff. “And he will have the Polish presidency on his radar, it starts in January 2025.”
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and CDU leader Friedrich Merz did not want to comment on Macron’s decision. In Berlin, the president’s maneuver met with incomprehension. The president is perceived as acting increasingly erratically, with his prime ministers and advisors changing at ever shorter intervals. Macron is not only taking a big risk domestically, it is said. He may also be jeopardizing the rapid clarification of upcoming personnel decisions at the EU level.
Nicolai von Ondarza, Head of the Europe Research Group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), speaks of a “high-risk game” by Macron. There may also be a far-right majority in the French national parliament in a few weeks. “And that overshadows to a certain extent this signal of ‘The center holds’ that could actually come from these European elections,” he said at an event organized by Table.Briefings, the European Movement Germany and the North Rhine-Westphalia Representation to the Federal Government.
Johannes Lindner, Director of the Jacques Delors Centre at the Berlin Hertie School, sees a double calculation on Macron’s part: “He knows that if he had let this go now, he would be even more of a lame duck, both in his own party and in the public eye.” Macron believes he can beat the RN. If the RN wins the parliamentary elections, Macron hopes to disenchant the party in government in the three years leading up to the presidential election. “Which is also highly risky,” warns Lindner.
Who is Sibylle Berg? Despite an 84-minute documentary about the German-Swiss author, numerous columns and books by her – we don’t really know. The author remains elusive, somewhere between an artificial figure and complete seriousness. Serious, for example, when she criticizes the miserable conditions in care and even capitalism in general. So nasty that it can only be a joke. Or is it?
One thing is certain: many in the cultural sector regard her as a cult figure. And now we know at least one more thing about Berg: she will be a Member of the European Parliament. The small German party Die Partei has once again managed to win two seats in the elections to the tenth European Parliament – and one of them goes to Berg.
Her program? As is so often the case with party candidates, it is a mixed bag: “A-levels and Bentley convertibles for all,” Berg demanded in a “people’s speech.” But she can also be serious here: for pacifism, against arms deliveries, stopping surveillance – these are her issues. In response to her election to the European Parliament, she wrote on X: “Thank you very much! The two of us will now put a kind end to surveillance fascism! Any help is welcome.”
Back in 2018, for example, she tried to stop a Swiss law that allows detectives to monitor the unemployed and those with health insurance in the event of suspected benefit abuse. She failed. However, the fight against surveillance has not only won Berg friends in the past. In Switzerland, she was a member of the left-wing committee “Vaccinated people against the Covid law,” which campaigned against the use of a coronavirus vaccination certificate, for example for access to cultural institutions.
Berg told Welt: “My candidacy is not art, not a performance, I’m serious.” So does this mean Bentley convertibles for everyone? Or just a motion to abolish capitalism? Alina Leimbach
The shift to the right in many EU countries dominated the political debates yesterday – the shock of the election victories of the Rassemblement National, the FPÖ and the second place for the AfD left many politicians and observers reeling. And yet: the European elections have created relatively clear relations. Not in Paris, Vienna or Berlin, but in Brussels.
The EPP is the clear winner of this election, as the Social Democrats and Liberals also recognize. They now want to negotiate swiftly with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen about a continuation of the current alliance. In view of the new strength of the Christian Democrats, they can hardly be too brash in their demands. The Greens will also likely be involved in the talks soon. Without them, the three members of the previous “Ursula coalition” have a somewhat thin cushion of 39 seats.
The election result also gives the heads of state and government little reason to question the claim of election winner Ursula von der Leyen to a second term in office. Diplomats believe it is realistic that they will be able to agree on a personnel package at the informal dinner next Monday.
The second-placed Social Democrats could therefore provide the President of the European Council; the clear favorite is the former Prime Minister of Portugal, António Costa. The third-placed Liberals would then appoint the Foreign Affairs Commissioner, probably in the person of Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. In this scenario, the EPP could still occupy the top position in the European Parliament, in the person of incumbent Roberta Metsola.
So far, so clear. If national turbulence does not shake up this order after all: in Brussels and Berlin, people are looking anxiously to Paris, where Emmanuel Macron is playing a game of vabanque with the new elections to the National Assembly. There are concerns that the president may not want to make himself vulnerable in the upcoming election campaign by supporting von der Leyen. However, this would mean that France’s president would paralyze the reorganization of the EU for months to come.
The Latvian Commission Vice-President spoke to Table.Briefings on Monday after the European elections. The Latvian EPP list, which he headed, achieved the highest share of votes in the country. Last Monday evening, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa nominated the experienced EU Commissioner for another mandate. Dombrovskis is currently in Berlin for the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference.
Mr. Dombrovskis, what is your first reaction after yesterday’s European elections?
The first conclusion is that pro-European, centrist political forces will continue to have a majority in the European Parliament. The EPP will continue to be the largest and most influential force in the EU. This will enable us to tackle the challenges we face in the next political cycle – strengthening European security and the competitiveness of the EU economy.
You will attend the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin today. What are your expectations of this conference?
It’s an important next step in the work on the Ukraine recovery, which helps us to coordinate this work. Certainly, I hope there are going to be announcements from the EU side, which I’m not in a position now to preannounce, but, besides this public support, it’s important to also ensure private investment and private sector participation in Ukraine reconstruction. And that’s why we welcome the recovery forum, where international businesses and investors will be brought together with Ukrainian companies and also with regional representatives and municipalities to discuss private investment into Ukraine.
The G7 is discussing the frozen Russian assets. The US proposes using the profits from these assets as a guarantee to allow a much larger loan to Ukraine instead of using the profits directly for Ukraine, as the EU Council has suggested. What do you think of the proposal?
We are open to discussing this concept of leveraging this financing flow to provide a substantially larger loan to Ukraine. The exact modalities, whether it’s exactly the US proposal or some kind of cooperative approach where the international community is providing this loan based on leveraging those assets, are still under discussion. But conceptually, we are positive about this idea.
What is the problem with the modalities?
One issue, which is important in this regard, are reassurances that those Russian assets remain immobilized as a basis for this whole leveraging operation. There is, on the one hand, the G7 decision, which says that the Russian assets should stay immobilized for as long as Russia has not paid reparations to Ukraine for the damage it has created. And that will help in this regard. But on the other hand, there is an EU sanctions regime, which foresees a regular renewal of this decision. So, one important question is how to have this long-term certainty for this operation.
When will the Commission announce its provisional decision on electric car tariffs?
We are currently working on this and one can expect that it’s coming soon. I cannot tell the exact date, but it’s coming.
How do you determine how high this tariff should be?
Well, it’s a fact-based investigation. So, what determines the level of tariffs is the volume of countervailable subsidies. It also depends on which extent the companies are cooperating with this investigation. But generally speaking, it’s better for companies to cooperate on this because otherwise we are using presumptions which may not be advantageous for the companies that are not cooperating.
How did the collaboration with Chinese manufacturers go?
Well, I would say there has been a varying degree of cooperation from Chinese companies (laughs)
Could you elaborate further?
With some, cooperation was fairly good, with others, less so.
And when you talk about Chinese manufacturers, do you mean Chinese brands or also European brands that manufacture in China?
It will ultimately impact all Chinese exports to the EU, but specifically, we’re primarily looking at some Chinese brands.
Have you also spoken to German car manufacturers?
Obviously, we’re in contact with member states on these topics. In Germany, views vary a bit about this investigation. But, we think it’s important that we are concluding this investigation because, well, the fact is that China is subsidizing its electrical vehicles industry and that it is giving China a competitive advantage. So, obviously, the aim of this investigation is not to impose some kind of protectionist tariffs, completely banning Chinese manufacturers, but it’s to remove unfair advantages that Chinese manufacturers are having through subsidies.
China is already preparing some countermeasures in case the EU imposes these tariffs. How can the Commission respond? Are you already planning ahead?
It remains to be seen. But, it’s worth noting that the US, for example, has recently imposed 100 percent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Turkey has substantially increased its tariffs. So, currently, the EU market is the largest market open to Chinese manufacturers. And we see the market share of Chinese manufacturers growing very rapidly. So, from that point of view, it is also obviously a risk of injury for European industry. And if we do not react, it will only get worse.
By all accounts, Chinese cars seem to be of very high quality. How will the EU need to change its stance on industrial policy so that Europeans might have the superior cars next time?
First of all, I would say that the EU has many very strong car manufacturers, which also have a strong, competitive position. At the same time, it has to be admitted that European car manufacturers were relatively slow in this move towards electromobility. China may now be a step ahead, so there is some catching up to do. So, our intention is not to protect our industry from competition but just to adjust for unfair competition.
The EU economy is lagging behind the US, as many different statistics show. The industry is very concerned. What does the next Commission need to do differently than the current one?
First of all, it must be said that the European economy is proving to be resilient despite very complicated circumstances. But it’s also true that besides those challenges we are facing right now with Russia’s war, there are also long-term structural challenges that we need to address, like relatively low productivity growth in the EU compared with the U.S. or China, population aging, and relatively high energy prices. And so we’ll have to pay a lot of attention to European economic competitiveness. As you know, the European Commission has come forward with an initiative of a reduction of administrative burden by 25 percent. It’s important that this commitment is followed through.
When can we expect a proposal to reduce bureaucracy?
Well, the European Commission has already started to work on those proposals. We have also launched a call for evidence, asking different stakeholders to provide us evidence of some excessive or unnecessary bureaucratic burden so that we can see the exact places where we can reduce the administrative burden. Obviously, it’s important that this is also reflected in our political priorities for the next Commission and that there is sustained pressure from stakeholders, especially from the business community, so that this is actually being delivered.
Can such a proposal be expected before the end of the year?
At this stage, it’s difficult for me to prejudge the decisions of the next European Commission. But that’s why I emphasize that it’s important that it’s reflected in the political priorities of the next Commission and that there is continuity on this initiative from this Commission to the next Commission.
Germany plays a strong role in the EU economy, but things are looking particularly bad here. What should Germany do differently?
Well, as regards the German economy, we also see strong sides, including a resilient labor market. One area where there will be a need of reinforcement is investment because in terms of public investment, Germany could actually do more. And that would support both, the German economy and the broader European economy.
So, if Germany spends more money, it would boost its and the European economies and probably also reduce the pressure on other, more indebted EU countries. How will you try to sell this idea to the Germans?
As you know, we are coordinating all those issues through the European semester. It has consistently been recommended that Germany step up its level of public investment. I think one important element is that we have recently agreed on a new EU economic governance framework, which actually provides more flexibility for member states to determine their fiscal adjustment path and more possibilities to correct this adjustment path if a country is implementing reforms and investments in line with European priorities. So obviously, we also encourage Germany to use these possibilities.
Following the EPP’s clear election victory, the partners of the previous Von der Leyen Commission want to get together quickly and negotiate a new version of the informal cooperation. The Socialists (S&D) and Liberals (Renew) had already congratulated Ursula von der Leyen on her success on the evening of the election and committed to the top candidate principle. This Tuesday, the leaders of the existing political groups will meet for the first time to discuss whether the election of the Commission President can take place in Strasbourg on July 18 or 19.
With regard to negotiations, SPD MEP Matthias Ecke emphasized: “If there are no factual issues standing in the way, we should tackle this very quickly.” He said at an event organized by Table.Briefings, the European Movement Germany and the North Rhine-Westphalia Representation to the Federal Government that there are expectations regarding the ability of European politicians to act. “And according to initial findings, there are also majorities that make this possible.”
FDP top candidate Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann also calls for cooperation between the pro-European parties. “We have to get this right,” she said at the same event. The nationalist forces must be further marginalized. “There is no such thing as a bit to the right and a bit more to the right. I warn against working with them.”
CDU leader Friedrich Merz forbade any bans on speaking: “The election losers have no right to dictate to us who we may or may not speak to.” EPP lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen wants to negotiate with the Socialists and Liberals first. The “sequence” is very clear, and talks with the S&D and Renew will begin first. “That is the first step,” she said. However, she also hinted at wanting to talk to the Greens. “Further steps can follow from that.” In the election of the Commission President, dissenters from the ranks of the EPP, S&D and Renew must again be expected.
According to the European Parliament’s seat projection, the EPP has 186 seats, the S&D has 135 seats and the Liberals have 79. Together, the three groups of the Von der Leyen coalition have 400 seats. 361 votes are needed to elect the Commission President. The informal coalition therefore does not have a comfortable majority.
The Greens lost 19 seats and now only have 53 seats. In the previous parliament, the Greens were the fourth largest parliamentary group, now they are only in sixth place. The Left Party lost one seat and now only has 36 MPs. The conservative EKR parliamentary group increased its number of seats from 69 to 73, while the radical right-wing ID parliamentary group rose from 49 to 58 seats. The non-attached groups have 45 MPs. These include the Fidesz and AfD MPs. A high-ranking Fidesz official announced that the delegation wanted to join the ECR. 55 new MEPs do not belong to any parliamentary group in the previous parliament, such as the BSW MEPs from Germany.
The majority ratio could still change before the first week of the session in Strasbourg (July 16 to 19). The political groups are trying to recruit parties that have recently entered the European Parliament as members. It cannot be ruled out that new groups will be formed or that groups will break up. A political group must have at least 23 members from seven or more Member States.
Since Sunday, it has become clear that climate action is no longer a compelling campaign theme. In the “climate election” of 2019, the Greens achieved a record result primarily due to their climate action profile. Now, it appears their electoral defeat could be interpreted as a vote on climate policy. But how likely is it that the new European Parliament will block or even reverse climate action measures?
Linda Kalcher, the Executive Director of the Brussels think tank Strategic Perspectives, observes that there has not been a “tectonic shift to the far right“. She believes that far-right extremists will not gain more power over the next five years. Although they have gained ground, the likely majority around the election winner, the European People’s Party (EPP), is unlikely to cooperate with them.
Experts from the European branch of the Climate Action Network (CAN Europe) share a similar view. They stated on Monday that the new majority still has the power to continue the Green Deal. Sven Harmeling, Head of Climate Policy at CAN Europe, also sees “no basis to describe the European elections as a vote against climate policy”.
The results were not uniform across all member states: While many countries saw a shift to the right, others, especially in Scandinavia, saw gains for parties with strong climate policies. “A large majority of people still support strong climate policies, and there are many actors in the economy who know they want and need to invest.”
Ursula von der Leyen, the election winner and current and likely next President of the European Commission, made it clear on Monday that she does not intend to reverse the Green Deal. The EPP’s election program already stated that they would do everything to combat climate change. Now begins a “very important phase of implementation“. Von der Leyen said that talks with industry and agriculture are already underway to determine how to help them achieve their climate goals.
There is consensus in other countries and factions that the Green Deal was not voted down. Krzysztof Bolesta, Poland’s State Secretary for Climate Issues and a member of the European Renew party family, told Reuters that while new measures will be harder to pass, a rollback is very unlikely.
The EPP has not yet commented on whether they will negotiate cooperation with a third faction in addition to the Socialists and Liberals. However, Kalcher believes that if the EPP wants to continue climate action, the Greens are a better choice than Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia. The climate tasks of the next European Commission will differ from the last. Many new initiatives will focus on strengthening industrial competitiveness and energy security. They may not carry the “climate ambitions” label but will reduce emissions and fulfill the Green Deal.
Former Bulgarian Environment Minister Julian Popov criticized the “Green Deal” label on Monday morning. He argued that linking the term “Green” to a political party created a communication problem and contributed to the rejection of climate policy. Kalcher expects the language to change, but the actual measures to remain the same. with Alexandra Endres and Till Hoppe
After President Emmanuel Macron announced his intention to dissolve the National Assembly, there is bewilderment in France. Politicians are frustrated that they are unable to run a proper election campaign. “We don’t have time to nominate all our candidates; we don’t even have time to print posters and leaflets,” complains one French parliamentarian. The first round of voting will take place on June 30, the second on July 7.
Many criticized the French president’s decision as “hasty” and “premature.” The image most often painted in France is that of a president playing with fire and bringing the Rassemblement National to the brink of power.
The political influence of the far-right party led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella has never been greater, both in France and in Europe. Of the 81 French MEPs in the European Parliament, the Rassemblement National sends 30 MEPs to the European Parliament.
This makes it not only the largest delegation of French MEPs but also one of the largest delegations in the European Parliament as a whole: the Rassemblement National now has as many MEPs as the German EPP delegation, which also consists of 30 MEPs. According to a French EU observer, the Rassemblement National wants to use this political weight to seek the chairmanship of the Agriculture Committee in the European Parliament, among other things.
At the European level, Emmanuel Macron’s announcement has the greatest impact at the Council level. The new elections have weakened France’s voice in an important phase of negotiations on the top jobs and the definition of the European Commission’s future roadmap, says Neil Makaroff, Director of the Brussels-based think tank Strategic Perspectives. This is also confirmed by a diplomatic voice from France: “The news of the early elections comes in the middle of the negotiations on the top jobs, and we won’t be there.”
The loss of French influence goes hand in hand with the loss of German influence. “German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will also no longer have the same influence in the Council after the Social Democrats’ weak performance in these elections,” says Makaroff.
He thinks the two European leaders who will emerge stronger from the elections are the Italian Giorgia Meloni and the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. In the Council, Donald Tusk will lead the negotiations for the EPP, says Neil Makaroff. “And he will have the Polish presidency on his radar, it starts in January 2025.”
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and CDU leader Friedrich Merz did not want to comment on Macron’s decision. In Berlin, the president’s maneuver met with incomprehension. The president is perceived as acting increasingly erratically, with his prime ministers and advisors changing at ever shorter intervals. Macron is not only taking a big risk domestically, it is said. He may also be jeopardizing the rapid clarification of upcoming personnel decisions at the EU level.
Nicolai von Ondarza, Head of the Europe Research Group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), speaks of a “high-risk game” by Macron. There may also be a far-right majority in the French national parliament in a few weeks. “And that overshadows to a certain extent this signal of ‘The center holds’ that could actually come from these European elections,” he said at an event organized by Table.Briefings, the European Movement Germany and the North Rhine-Westphalia Representation to the Federal Government.
Johannes Lindner, Director of the Jacques Delors Centre at the Berlin Hertie School, sees a double calculation on Macron’s part: “He knows that if he had let this go now, he would be even more of a lame duck, both in his own party and in the public eye.” Macron believes he can beat the RN. If the RN wins the parliamentary elections, Macron hopes to disenchant the party in government in the three years leading up to the presidential election. “Which is also highly risky,” warns Lindner.
Who is Sibylle Berg? Despite an 84-minute documentary about the German-Swiss author, numerous columns and books by her – we don’t really know. The author remains elusive, somewhere between an artificial figure and complete seriousness. Serious, for example, when she criticizes the miserable conditions in care and even capitalism in general. So nasty that it can only be a joke. Or is it?
One thing is certain: many in the cultural sector regard her as a cult figure. And now we know at least one more thing about Berg: she will be a Member of the European Parliament. The small German party Die Partei has once again managed to win two seats in the elections to the tenth European Parliament – and one of them goes to Berg.
Her program? As is so often the case with party candidates, it is a mixed bag: “A-levels and Bentley convertibles for all,” Berg demanded in a “people’s speech.” But she can also be serious here: for pacifism, against arms deliveries, stopping surveillance – these are her issues. In response to her election to the European Parliament, she wrote on X: “Thank you very much! The two of us will now put a kind end to surveillance fascism! Any help is welcome.”
Back in 2018, for example, she tried to stop a Swiss law that allows detectives to monitor the unemployed and those with health insurance in the event of suspected benefit abuse. She failed. However, the fight against surveillance has not only won Berg friends in the past. In Switzerland, she was a member of the left-wing committee “Vaccinated people against the Covid law,” which campaigned against the use of a coronavirus vaccination certificate, for example for access to cultural institutions.
Berg told Welt: “My candidacy is not art, not a performance, I’m serious.” So does this mean Bentley convertibles for everyone? Or just a motion to abolish capitalism? Alina Leimbach
