Many people probably feel the same way as Emmanuel Macron. “Who could have imagined ten years ago that the owner of one of the largest social networks in the world would support a new international reactionary movement and intervene directly in elections, including in Germany?” This is what the French President said on Monday in his address to the French ambassadors.
But what follows from this realization? Unfortunately, Macron – like the Commission and other politicians in the Member States – is still not taking a clear stance against Elon Musk and his platform X. Many agree that X has developed into a disinformation and hate machine. However, few are taking the “eXit” and unsubscribing from the platform. The Commission also continues to post on X.
The new Digital Commissioner Henna Virkkunen must not take a break in the implementation of the DSA. Because there must be no foreign interference in democratic elections in Europe – regardless of whether it comes from Russia, the USA or China. The general election is only 47 days away.
Have a successful day
Your Corinna Visser
Feature
Chancellor Kickl? The consequences for the EU and the EPP
In Austria, the FPÖ has been given the chance to provide the Federal Chancellor for the first time. Federal President Alexander van der Bellen has instructed party leader Herbert Kickl to negotiate with the ÖVP on the formation of a new federal government. The new ÖVP chairman ChristianStocker had already clarified beforehand that he wanted to “accept the invitation.”
This would be the first time that the Christian Democrats have entered into a coalition with the FPÖ as a junior partner. The Freedom Party won the election in September and currently has a clear lead in the polls. The ÖVP had initially rejected an alliance with the FPÖ and entered into negotiations with the Social Democrats and Liberals, but these fell through at the weekend.
Growth for nationalists in the Council
A government led by Kickl in Austria would further strengthen the nationalist forces in the European Council. With Giorgia Meloni, Viktor Orbán and the left-wing nationalist Robert Fico, they already provide the heads of government in three member states. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders is also pulling the strings in the background. In other countries such as Sweden and Finland, far-right parties are junior partners in the government. Nationalist politicians could win the upcoming repeat presidential election in Romania and the parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic in the fall.
There is also the question of how the Christian Democrats in Europewill distinguish themselves from the parties to their right. EPP leader Manfred Weber did not want to comment on Monday. Dennis Radtke, CDU MEP and CDA leader, was clear: “Christian Democrats as stirrup holders for a ‘Volkskanzler’ Kickl? What a horror scenario,” he wrote on X. “This irreparably damages the core of Christian democracy.” The EPP said that there should be a major alarm if a member party wanted to join a government led by Kickl, who is a Putin friend and an avowed opponent of the EU.
Expert warns ÖVP of ‘existential crisis’
Frankfurt Politics Professor Thomas Biebricher warns: “A coalition as a junior partner with the FPÖ could lead the ÖVP into an existential crisis in the medium term.” Voters from the political center are likely to turn away, while at the same time, the ÖVP could win few votes from the FPÖ in a coalition. “Conservative parties rarely emerge stronger from coalitions with right-wing populists,” says the author of the book ‘Center/Right: The International Crisis of Conservatism’. Forza Italia is a good example for this.
In addition: Kickl is ideologically more stable than his predecessor Heinz-Christian Strache, who resigned after “Ibiza-Gate,” says Biebricher, and he pursues his goals in a very methodical and disciplined manner. Because of Kickl’s EU-critical and Putin-friendly course, the recently resigned ÖVP Chancellor KarlNehammer ruled out a coalition with Kickl in the fall, as did several high-ranking party colleagues. In December, the new party leader Christian Stocker described him as a “major threat to Austria’s security.”
ÖVP calls for moderation in EU criticism
ReinholdLopatka, head of the five-member ÖVP delegation in the EPP group, now demanded that the FPÖ leader “make concessions to his anti-European policy.” A coalition agreement must stipulate that “Austria is and remains a reliable and active partner in the EU,” he told Table.Briefings.
According to Lopatka, it would “not be easier for anyone” in the European Council if Kickl led the Austrian federal government. A coalition agreement could not stipulate the behavior of heads of government at EU summits. “For the ÖVP, however, allying with pro-Putin forces such as Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico at the EU level would definitely not be an option.”
Weakness of a fragmented party system
Relations with the EU and Russia are likely to be the biggest stumbling blocks in the upcoming coalition negotiations. After the election, the FPÖ entered the exploratory talks with several demands that annoyed the ÖVP: no participation in the European air defense system Sky Shield and an evaluation of all agreements and international treaties. The election manifesto also describes Russian gas as an “important contribution to our security of supply” and the EU sanctions against Russia as “irresponsible” and “counterproductive interference in the market.”
The ÖVP’s failed coalition negotiations with the SPÖ and Liberals could also be an omen for the formation of a government after the federal elections in Germany on February 23. The case shows how difficult it is for the centrist parties to find compromises from their different starting positions, says Biebricher. “The right-wing populists are thus benefiting from the weaknesses of an increasingly fragmented party system.”
Germany faces difficult government formation
The polls for the Bundestag elections suggest a clear victory for the CDU/CSU. However, forming a government could be complicated: Not only does CSU leader Markus Söder firmly reject a coalition with the Greens, the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance is also out of the question as a partner. Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz has clearly ruled out an alliance with the AfD; cooperation would “tear the CDU apart,” says Biebricher. Should it not be enough for a coalition with the FDP, as is foreseeable, Merz would therefore have to rely on the SPD as a coalition partner, but their positions on economic and social policy are far apart.
The CSU leadership favors an alliance with the SPD – “without Olaf Scholz” (Söder). At the closed meeting of CSU members of parliament in Kloster Seeon, Söder blamed the former black-green coalition in Austria for the electoral success of the FPÖ and the crisis: “Black-green was the downfall of the conservative ÖVP,” said the party leader according to participants. A conservative majority in the country could not be answered with left-wing alliances. Lukas Beyer, Markus Grabitz, Till Hoppe
EU-Gipfel
European policy
Translation missing.
Defense White Paper: Where Andrius Kubilius encounters red lines
Andrius Kubilius will almost certainly disappoint. Expectations of the first EU Commissioner for Defense are high, but his powers and scope are limited. The White Paper on the future of European defense, which the Lithuanian is to present within the first 100 days, will be his first test case.
For Berlin, the timing alone is problematic in view of the election campaign. Chancellor and SPD candidate Olaf Scholz has already spoken out clearly against new joint debt for European armaments projects. Challenger Friedrich Merz (CDU), on the other hand, would be forced to commit to a premature debate on defense bonds, for example.
High expectations of Kubilius
Berlin is therefore expecting that Andrius Kubilius will not present his White Paper until after the federal elections sometime in March. But how ambitious should the White Paper be? Ideas differ widely between individual member states, in the EU Parliament and in the arms industry.
Lithuania’s former head of government helped to fuel high expectations when he called for €500 billion in additional defense spending over the coming years and spoke of the need for a “big bang.” In view of the threatening situation, Europe must wave small steps goodbye.
Poles and Balts back Kubilius
Kubilius has Poland and the Baltic states on his side, who are open to new joint debt based on the model of the Corona Reconstruction Fund. Poland and Greece are also campaigning for a jointly financed European air defense system. Alongside Germany, however, the Netherlands and member states such as Sweden and Finland are also firmly opposed to Eurobonds.
According to diplomats, the Commissioner for Defense will therefore present various financing options, in addition to reallocations in the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), for example via a fund that could issue bonds with the help of the European Investment Bank, or via the ESM euro rescue mechanism, whose funds are currently lying idle.
Where the Commission’s powers end
In addition to the question of financing, there are fundamental reservations among the member states about the EU determining capability gaps on its own authority and deciding on European procurements. This is clearly the responsibility of NATO. The Commission lacks competence and expertise in this area.
The defense industry echoes similar sentiments. It makes little sense to duplicate structures at the EU level and compete with NATO. The military alliance has the lead in determining requirements. Then one could always talk about what could be financed at the European level.
Thorny subject of taxonomy
The tenor is that Kubilius should concentrate on his internal market competencies and improve the framework conditions for the arms industry. There is no consensus on joint procurements financed by Europe. In general, no revolutionary changes are expected. The defence industry must be relieved of bureaucratic requirements, which often complicate finding financing and implementing projects.
The big issue here is the taxonomy, whose rules still putthedefense industry at a severe disadvantage when it comes to accessing private funding. Although a change of course is considered politically sensitive, it could help more than the discussion about defense bonds.
Expectations in the SEDE Committee
What are the expectations of the EU Parliament’s new Defense Committee? SEDE Chairwoman Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (Renew) expects the White Paper to provide an “all-encompassing answer as to how a European defense strategy can be implemented in concrete terms and what military capacities are needed on land, at sea, in airspace defense, but also in cyber and information space.” In an interview with Table.Briefings, the liberal expects Kubilius to propose viable financing models to the member states “without triggering a debt spiral.”
For Michael Gahler (EPP), it is important that joint procurement and development projects focus on the added value for European defense capabilities. Many capabilities, for example in space, are hardly feasible from a national financial perspective, says the CDU MEP and calls for a departure from the “small-state mentality driven by industrial policy.”
When it comes to money, Michael Gahler calls for an open-ended debate without dogmatic predeterminations. Creativity is required in order to sensibly combine options for redeployment, limited exemptions for defense spending from the stability criteria, investment support from the EIB, investment guarantees via the ESM or even defense bonds.
Rethinking the Maastricht criteria
For SPD MEP Tobias Cremer (S&D), the necessary increases in the defense budget must notcomeat the expense of other important investments in the future. However, the main financial burden will continue to be borne by the Member States. In addition to an adjustment of the NATO target to three percent, an update of the Maastricht criteria must also be examined.
Hannah Neumann from the Greens hopes that the White Paper will mark the moment of truth, when all those involved will have to come clean. There is a lot of talk about joint European cooperation. So far, however, member states and the arms industry have mostly preferred national solutions. There is a lack of willingness to become interdependent when it comes to procurement and capabilities. Political will is needed to overcome fragmentation. This has been lacking so far. Hannah Neumann therefore sees the best opportunities for cooperation at the European level in protecting against cyber attacks and critical infrastructures. All member states have major problems in this area.
EU-Haushalt
European Defense
Verteidigungspolitik
News
French security policy: Macron warns against ‘criminal dependencies’
French President Emmanuel Macron has appealed to European countries to strengthen their defense industries. In the face of increasing threats, Europeans must become “much faster” and “muchstronger” in this regard, he said on Monday in a speech to French ambassadors in Paris, where he presented his foreign and security policy priorities for 2025. If Europe is dependent on the US defense industry, “we will have terrible dilemmas and criminal strategic dependencies,” the president said.
After Macron’s Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy considered territorial cessions in return for NATO membership for the Ukrainian part west of the front, Macron said that Ukraine should have “realistic discussions on the territorial issues,” as only Ukraine could do this. The US now had the task of helping to change the situation and convince Russia to “come to the negotiating table.” The Europeans are tasked to create security guarantees for Ukraine. However, there will be no quick and easy solution in Ukraine.
US President-elect Donald Trump had announced that he would be able to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. Many European NATO states fear a quick peace agreement to the detriment of Ukraine, hence Macron’s appeal: “The new US president knows that the US has no chance of winning anything if Ukraine loses.” Addressing his ambassadors, Macron said: “If we decide to be weak and defeatist, there is little chance of being respected by US President Trump.”
The guest of honor at the conference, which continues today, Tuesday, is Poland’sForeign Minister Radosław Sikorski. He reiterated on Monday evening that a fair peace is needed in Ukraine, not a capitulation. It should not be “an ordinary agreement” that would allow Moscow to regain its strength. Sikorski’s visit is further evidence of the rapprochement between the two countries. Macron had already visited Warsaw in December without the involvement of Germany. bub
Armor
Donald Trump
Emmanuel Macron
Geopolitics
Rüstung
Social conditionality: Why trade unionists remain dissatisfied
The German Construction, Agriculture and Environment Trade Union (IG BAU) believes that the implementation of social conditionality, which ties direct payments under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to compliance with applicable labor law standards, does not go far enough. Vice-Chairman Harald Schaum speaks of a “long overdue step,” as massive violations of workers’ rights are repeatedly recorded in agriculture in particular. However, there is still a “great need for improvement.”
In Schaum’s view, important aspects are missing from the catalog of conditions that now apply to CAP recipients in Germany. In the event of breaches of the minimum wage, the maximum length of working hours or the minimum vacation entitlement, for example, farms would not have to fear a reduction in direct payments. Where sanctions do apply, they are set too low: Three percent of subsidies are deducted for intentional violations and one percent for unintentional violations.
The union is also calling for better controls: One authority should review all labor law standards in a bundled manner, as is already common practice in other EU countries. Until now, a number of different authorities have been responsible for different areas.
The German Farmers’ Association (DBV) had called for a low-bureaucracy implementation of the EU rules without new verification and documentation requirements for farmers. In a statement last year, the association referred to the already existing “very demanding” requirements in the context of conditionality, such as the so-called GAEC standards. Additional bureaucracy would not be “practicable.”
Social conditionality has been in force in Germany since January 1, 2025, which is the latest possible date that the EU has allowed for implementation. Several countries, such as France and Spain, have voluntarily introduced the regulation in 2024. jd
Arbeitnehmerrechte
Common agricultural policy
GAP
Trade unions
Gas supplies: meeting between Slovakia, Ukraine and Commission canceled
A meeting between representatives of Slovakia, Ukraine and the European Commission on gas supplies planned for today, Tuesday, has been canceled. Kyiv has refused to participate, the Slovakian government announced on Monday.
The Commission is now looking for a new date. The pro-Russian Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico had previously accused Kyiv of harming Slovakia through the expiry of a transit agreement for Russian gas. He also threatened to cut electricity supplies to Ukraine and reduce support for refugees.
Kyiv argues that ending the transit will deprive Russia of revenue as long as it attacks Ukraine. Slovakia has developed alternative gas sources and routes. However, Fico puts the additional costs of higher import prices at €500 million. He is demanding either the resumption of gas flows or compensation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Fico of opening a “second energy front” against Ukraine on Russia’s instructions. Ukraine has synchronized its electricity grid with the EU and trades electricity with several neighboring countries. According to the Ukrainian energy minister, possible shortfalls in supplies from Slovakia, which account for around 20 percent of imports, could be compensated for. It remained unclear how Fico intends to restrict electricity supplies. rtr
EU-Binnenmarkt
Slowakei
EU deal: What the agreement with Switzerland means for research
After four years of waiting, Switzerland has reached an agreement with the EU that will allow its researchers to participate in the EU research and innovation program Horizon Europe on an equal footing. Shortly before Christmas, Brussels and Bern had announced that they had reached an agreement in several areas – including food safety, electricity, health and disease control – following lengthy negotiations.
As a result, the European Commission has approved full association with Horizon Europe from 2025 and with the Euratom nuclear research program. “I welcome this very positive development, which in turn improves Europe’s resilience, prosperity, competitiveness and well-being,” said Research Commissioner Ekaterina Zaharievain a statemen.
The provisional agreement could expire again in 2028
A separate space agreement will regulate Switzerland’s participation in the European Space Agency (ESA). EU students will also pay the same tuition fees at Swiss universities as domestic students. Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, who led the talks with Bern, declared at a press conference that the association with Horizon Europe was a great success. “Switzerland and Swiss researchers can actively participate in the largest research and innovation program in the world,” he said.
However, there is a risk that the Swiss could reject the agreement in a referendum that has not yet been scheduled. However, this could take until 2028, which means that Switzerland’s participation is considered secure at least until the end of Horizon Europe. Horizon Europe will run in its current form until the end of 2027. Switzerland’s participation in the next FP10 research framework program will then depend on the outcome of the Swiss referendum. dm/tg
Europäische Kommission
Universitäten
Wissenschaft
Brussels: Man with knife overpowered at prime minister’s official residence
Aman armed with a knife has been arrested at the official residence of the Belgian head of government in Brussels. According to the Belgian news agency Belga, the man tried to enter the official residence. According to reports, he threatened the military police who were present.. The officers overpowered the man. No one was injured.
The man’s motives were initially unclear. The caretaker head of government Alexander De Croo was shocked by the incident, said his spokesman. “We would like to expressly thank the officers of the military police.” Together with the police, the situation is being closely monitored.
After the parliamentary elections in June, the formation of a government in Belgium continues. De Croo’s liberal Open VLD party from Flanders lost the vote by a clear margin. He and his cabinet are in office on a caretaker basis until a new government is formed. dpa
Belgien
Heads
Luuk van Middelaar and his think tank on geopolitics
Luuk van Middelaar is the Founding Director of the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics.
Three heads of state and government sealed the foundation. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and the then Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte came together in October 2022 when the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (BIG) think tank was founded. The three founders Luuk van Middelaar, Hans Kribbe and Sébastien Lumet now have the support of Germany, France and the Netherlands, and also of Belgium, Denmark and the Czech Republic.
What the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel achieved during the euro crisis, the think tank with the immodest acronym is set to achieve in future in matters of geopolitics: Pooling strategic expertise, creating space for debate, providing well-founded analyses for decision-makers. “History is in flux right now,” says co-founder van Middelaar. “And we don’t know where it’s going.”
Advisor to Herman Van Rompuy
Unlike many other intellectuals, the historian and philosopher van Middelaar, who teaches at Leiden University, knows the EU from the inside. As a speechwriter and advisor to the first EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy, he experienced the turbulent years from 2009 to 2014, including the euro crisis in the Justus Lipsius Council building. From this time in the Council, he is well connected with the Sherpas in Europe’s government headquarters. He estimates the number of people who are practically involved in geopolitics in Europe’s capitals at 200.
When Van Rompuy hired van Middelaar, he had just completed his PhD on the beginnings of the EU. His doctoral thesis was translated into more than ten languages and was published under the title “The Passage to Europe.” Two more books on Europe have followed since then. The fact that Macron is familiar with his work certainly didn’t hurt when it came to founding BIG.
Convention as a crash course in the EU
His first book brought van Middelaar to Brussels. In his master’s thesis, which was published under the title “Politicide,” he describes how skeptical French philosophers were of democracy from the 1930s onwards and how much they glossed over communism. Dutch Internal Market Commissioner Frits Bolkestein liked the book so much that he brought van Middelaar into the EU Commission as an intern in 2002 – and subsequently kept him on as a speechwriter.
On his first day at work, van Middelaar experienced how politics is made in Brussels. Because no one else in the Bolkestein cabinet was available, he was sent to the first meeting of the European Constitutional Convention. Under the leadership of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, the assembly was to draw up an EU constitution. As is well known, the project failed. Van Middelaar found the Convention a crash course in EU matters, experienced national ways of thinking and immersed himself in EU jargon for the first time.
A protected space for debates on EU strategy
However, the times in which the EU can be preoccupied with itself are over. In 2020, van Middelaar first thought about setting up a think tank on geopolitics in Brussels because he had identified a need. The EU has to assert itself in a multipolar world, and BIG wants to offer “a protected space for debates on EU strategy,” says van Middelaar.
Thinkers, doers and artists should be able to mingle in Brussels without having to fear that their ideas will be made public on the same day. The Union must face up to the world as it is. “Europe must adapt to the new era,” says van Middelaar. The Union must adopt a strategy; the era of free trade is over. “The standard answers from economics textbooks no longer work.” BIG wants to develop new answers. Silke Wettach
Many people probably feel the same way as Emmanuel Macron. “Who could have imagined ten years ago that the owner of one of the largest social networks in the world would support a new international reactionary movement and intervene directly in elections, including in Germany?” This is what the French President said on Monday in his address to the French ambassadors.
But what follows from this realization? Unfortunately, Macron – like the Commission and other politicians in the Member States – is still not taking a clear stance against Elon Musk and his platform X. Many agree that X has developed into a disinformation and hate machine. However, few are taking the “eXit” and unsubscribing from the platform. The Commission also continues to post on X.
The new Digital Commissioner Henna Virkkunen must not take a break in the implementation of the DSA. Because there must be no foreign interference in democratic elections in Europe – regardless of whether it comes from Russia, the USA or China. The general election is only 47 days away.
Have a successful day
Your Corinna Visser
Feature
Chancellor Kickl? The consequences for the EU and the EPP
In Austria, the FPÖ has been given the chance to provide the Federal Chancellor for the first time. Federal President Alexander van der Bellen has instructed party leader Herbert Kickl to negotiate with the ÖVP on the formation of a new federal government. The new ÖVP chairman ChristianStocker had already clarified beforehand that he wanted to “accept the invitation.”
This would be the first time that the Christian Democrats have entered into a coalition with the FPÖ as a junior partner. The Freedom Party won the election in September and currently has a clear lead in the polls. The ÖVP had initially rejected an alliance with the FPÖ and entered into negotiations with the Social Democrats and Liberals, but these fell through at the weekend.
Growth for nationalists in the Council
A government led by Kickl in Austria would further strengthen the nationalist forces in the European Council. With Giorgia Meloni, Viktor Orbán and the left-wing nationalist Robert Fico, they already provide the heads of government in three member states. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders is also pulling the strings in the background. In other countries such as Sweden and Finland, far-right parties are junior partners in the government. Nationalist politicians could win the upcoming repeat presidential election in Romania and the parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic in the fall.
There is also the question of how the Christian Democrats in Europewill distinguish themselves from the parties to their right. EPP leader Manfred Weber did not want to comment on Monday. Dennis Radtke, CDU MEP and CDA leader, was clear: “Christian Democrats as stirrup holders for a ‘Volkskanzler’ Kickl? What a horror scenario,” he wrote on X. “This irreparably damages the core of Christian democracy.” The EPP said that there should be a major alarm if a member party wanted to join a government led by Kickl, who is a Putin friend and an avowed opponent of the EU.
Expert warns ÖVP of ‘existential crisis’
Frankfurt Politics Professor Thomas Biebricher warns: “A coalition as a junior partner with the FPÖ could lead the ÖVP into an existential crisis in the medium term.” Voters from the political center are likely to turn away, while at the same time, the ÖVP could win few votes from the FPÖ in a coalition. “Conservative parties rarely emerge stronger from coalitions with right-wing populists,” says the author of the book ‘Center/Right: The International Crisis of Conservatism’. Forza Italia is a good example for this.
In addition: Kickl is ideologically more stable than his predecessor Heinz-Christian Strache, who resigned after “Ibiza-Gate,” says Biebricher, and he pursues his goals in a very methodical and disciplined manner. Because of Kickl’s EU-critical and Putin-friendly course, the recently resigned ÖVP Chancellor KarlNehammer ruled out a coalition with Kickl in the fall, as did several high-ranking party colleagues. In December, the new party leader Christian Stocker described him as a “major threat to Austria’s security.”
ÖVP calls for moderation in EU criticism
ReinholdLopatka, head of the five-member ÖVP delegation in the EPP group, now demanded that the FPÖ leader “make concessions to his anti-European policy.” A coalition agreement must stipulate that “Austria is and remains a reliable and active partner in the EU,” he told Table.Briefings.
According to Lopatka, it would “not be easier for anyone” in the European Council if Kickl led the Austrian federal government. A coalition agreement could not stipulate the behavior of heads of government at EU summits. “For the ÖVP, however, allying with pro-Putin forces such as Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico at the EU level would definitely not be an option.”
Weakness of a fragmented party system
Relations with the EU and Russia are likely to be the biggest stumbling blocks in the upcoming coalition negotiations. After the election, the FPÖ entered the exploratory talks with several demands that annoyed the ÖVP: no participation in the European air defense system Sky Shield and an evaluation of all agreements and international treaties. The election manifesto also describes Russian gas as an “important contribution to our security of supply” and the EU sanctions against Russia as “irresponsible” and “counterproductive interference in the market.”
The ÖVP’s failed coalition negotiations with the SPÖ and Liberals could also be an omen for the formation of a government after the federal elections in Germany on February 23. The case shows how difficult it is for the centrist parties to find compromises from their different starting positions, says Biebricher. “The right-wing populists are thus benefiting from the weaknesses of an increasingly fragmented party system.”
Germany faces difficult government formation
The polls for the Bundestag elections suggest a clear victory for the CDU/CSU. However, forming a government could be complicated: Not only does CSU leader Markus Söder firmly reject a coalition with the Greens, the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance is also out of the question as a partner. Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz has clearly ruled out an alliance with the AfD; cooperation would “tear the CDU apart,” says Biebricher. Should it not be enough for a coalition with the FDP, as is foreseeable, Merz would therefore have to rely on the SPD as a coalition partner, but their positions on economic and social policy are far apart.
The CSU leadership favors an alliance with the SPD – “without Olaf Scholz” (Söder). At the closed meeting of CSU members of parliament in Kloster Seeon, Söder blamed the former black-green coalition in Austria for the electoral success of the FPÖ and the crisis: “Black-green was the downfall of the conservative ÖVP,” said the party leader according to participants. A conservative majority in the country could not be answered with left-wing alliances. Lukas Beyer, Markus Grabitz, Till Hoppe
EU-Gipfel
European policy
Translation missing.
Defense White Paper: Where Andrius Kubilius encounters red lines
Andrius Kubilius will almost certainly disappoint. Expectations of the first EU Commissioner for Defense are high, but his powers and scope are limited. The White Paper on the future of European defense, which the Lithuanian is to present within the first 100 days, will be his first test case.
For Berlin, the timing alone is problematic in view of the election campaign. Chancellor and SPD candidate Olaf Scholz has already spoken out clearly against new joint debt for European armaments projects. Challenger Friedrich Merz (CDU), on the other hand, would be forced to commit to a premature debate on defense bonds, for example.
High expectations of Kubilius
Berlin is therefore expecting that Andrius Kubilius will not present his White Paper until after the federal elections sometime in March. But how ambitious should the White Paper be? Ideas differ widely between individual member states, in the EU Parliament and in the arms industry.
Lithuania’s former head of government helped to fuel high expectations when he called for €500 billion in additional defense spending over the coming years and spoke of the need for a “big bang.” In view of the threatening situation, Europe must wave small steps goodbye.
Poles and Balts back Kubilius
Kubilius has Poland and the Baltic states on his side, who are open to new joint debt based on the model of the Corona Reconstruction Fund. Poland and Greece are also campaigning for a jointly financed European air defense system. Alongside Germany, however, the Netherlands and member states such as Sweden and Finland are also firmly opposed to Eurobonds.
According to diplomats, the Commissioner for Defense will therefore present various financing options, in addition to reallocations in the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), for example via a fund that could issue bonds with the help of the European Investment Bank, or via the ESM euro rescue mechanism, whose funds are currently lying idle.
Where the Commission’s powers end
In addition to the question of financing, there are fundamental reservations among the member states about the EU determining capability gaps on its own authority and deciding on European procurements. This is clearly the responsibility of NATO. The Commission lacks competence and expertise in this area.
The defense industry echoes similar sentiments. It makes little sense to duplicate structures at the EU level and compete with NATO. The military alliance has the lead in determining requirements. Then one could always talk about what could be financed at the European level.
Thorny subject of taxonomy
The tenor is that Kubilius should concentrate on his internal market competencies and improve the framework conditions for the arms industry. There is no consensus on joint procurements financed by Europe. In general, no revolutionary changes are expected. The defence industry must be relieved of bureaucratic requirements, which often complicate finding financing and implementing projects.
The big issue here is the taxonomy, whose rules still putthedefense industry at a severe disadvantage when it comes to accessing private funding. Although a change of course is considered politically sensitive, it could help more than the discussion about defense bonds.
Expectations in the SEDE Committee
What are the expectations of the EU Parliament’s new Defense Committee? SEDE Chairwoman Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (Renew) expects the White Paper to provide an “all-encompassing answer as to how a European defense strategy can be implemented in concrete terms and what military capacities are needed on land, at sea, in airspace defense, but also in cyber and information space.” In an interview with Table.Briefings, the liberal expects Kubilius to propose viable financing models to the member states “without triggering a debt spiral.”
For Michael Gahler (EPP), it is important that joint procurement and development projects focus on the added value for European defense capabilities. Many capabilities, for example in space, are hardly feasible from a national financial perspective, says the CDU MEP and calls for a departure from the “small-state mentality driven by industrial policy.”
When it comes to money, Michael Gahler calls for an open-ended debate without dogmatic predeterminations. Creativity is required in order to sensibly combine options for redeployment, limited exemptions for defense spending from the stability criteria, investment support from the EIB, investment guarantees via the ESM or even defense bonds.
Rethinking the Maastricht criteria
For SPD MEP Tobias Cremer (S&D), the necessary increases in the defense budget must notcomeat the expense of other important investments in the future. However, the main financial burden will continue to be borne by the Member States. In addition to an adjustment of the NATO target to three percent, an update of the Maastricht criteria must also be examined.
Hannah Neumann from the Greens hopes that the White Paper will mark the moment of truth, when all those involved will have to come clean. There is a lot of talk about joint European cooperation. So far, however, member states and the arms industry have mostly preferred national solutions. There is a lack of willingness to become interdependent when it comes to procurement and capabilities. Political will is needed to overcome fragmentation. This has been lacking so far. Hannah Neumann therefore sees the best opportunities for cooperation at the European level in protecting against cyber attacks and critical infrastructures. All member states have major problems in this area.
EU-Haushalt
European Defense
Verteidigungspolitik
News
French security policy: Macron warns against ‘criminal dependencies’
French President Emmanuel Macron has appealed to European countries to strengthen their defense industries. In the face of increasing threats, Europeans must become “much faster” and “muchstronger” in this regard, he said on Monday in a speech to French ambassadors in Paris, where he presented his foreign and security policy priorities for 2025. If Europe is dependent on the US defense industry, “we will have terrible dilemmas and criminal strategic dependencies,” the president said.
After Macron’s Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy considered territorial cessions in return for NATO membership for the Ukrainian part west of the front, Macron said that Ukraine should have “realistic discussions on the territorial issues,” as only Ukraine could do this. The US now had the task of helping to change the situation and convince Russia to “come to the negotiating table.” The Europeans are tasked to create security guarantees for Ukraine. However, there will be no quick and easy solution in Ukraine.
US President-elect Donald Trump had announced that he would be able to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. Many European NATO states fear a quick peace agreement to the detriment of Ukraine, hence Macron’s appeal: “The new US president knows that the US has no chance of winning anything if Ukraine loses.” Addressing his ambassadors, Macron said: “If we decide to be weak and defeatist, there is little chance of being respected by US President Trump.”
The guest of honor at the conference, which continues today, Tuesday, is Poland’sForeign Minister Radosław Sikorski. He reiterated on Monday evening that a fair peace is needed in Ukraine, not a capitulation. It should not be “an ordinary agreement” that would allow Moscow to regain its strength. Sikorski’s visit is further evidence of the rapprochement between the two countries. Macron had already visited Warsaw in December without the involvement of Germany. bub
Armor
Donald Trump
Emmanuel Macron
Geopolitics
Rüstung
Social conditionality: Why trade unionists remain dissatisfied
The German Construction, Agriculture and Environment Trade Union (IG BAU) believes that the implementation of social conditionality, which ties direct payments under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to compliance with applicable labor law standards, does not go far enough. Vice-Chairman Harald Schaum speaks of a “long overdue step,” as massive violations of workers’ rights are repeatedly recorded in agriculture in particular. However, there is still a “great need for improvement.”
In Schaum’s view, important aspects are missing from the catalog of conditions that now apply to CAP recipients in Germany. In the event of breaches of the minimum wage, the maximum length of working hours or the minimum vacation entitlement, for example, farms would not have to fear a reduction in direct payments. Where sanctions do apply, they are set too low: Three percent of subsidies are deducted for intentional violations and one percent for unintentional violations.
The union is also calling for better controls: One authority should review all labor law standards in a bundled manner, as is already common practice in other EU countries. Until now, a number of different authorities have been responsible for different areas.
The German Farmers’ Association (DBV) had called for a low-bureaucracy implementation of the EU rules without new verification and documentation requirements for farmers. In a statement last year, the association referred to the already existing “very demanding” requirements in the context of conditionality, such as the so-called GAEC standards. Additional bureaucracy would not be “practicable.”
Social conditionality has been in force in Germany since January 1, 2025, which is the latest possible date that the EU has allowed for implementation. Several countries, such as France and Spain, have voluntarily introduced the regulation in 2024. jd
Arbeitnehmerrechte
Common agricultural policy
GAP
Trade unions
Gas supplies: meeting between Slovakia, Ukraine and Commission canceled
A meeting between representatives of Slovakia, Ukraine and the European Commission on gas supplies planned for today, Tuesday, has been canceled. Kyiv has refused to participate, the Slovakian government announced on Monday.
The Commission is now looking for a new date. The pro-Russian Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico had previously accused Kyiv of harming Slovakia through the expiry of a transit agreement for Russian gas. He also threatened to cut electricity supplies to Ukraine and reduce support for refugees.
Kyiv argues that ending the transit will deprive Russia of revenue as long as it attacks Ukraine. Slovakia has developed alternative gas sources and routes. However, Fico puts the additional costs of higher import prices at €500 million. He is demanding either the resumption of gas flows or compensation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Fico of opening a “second energy front” against Ukraine on Russia’s instructions. Ukraine has synchronized its electricity grid with the EU and trades electricity with several neighboring countries. According to the Ukrainian energy minister, possible shortfalls in supplies from Slovakia, which account for around 20 percent of imports, could be compensated for. It remained unclear how Fico intends to restrict electricity supplies. rtr
EU-Binnenmarkt
Slowakei
EU deal: What the agreement with Switzerland means for research
After four years of waiting, Switzerland has reached an agreement with the EU that will allow its researchers to participate in the EU research and innovation program Horizon Europe on an equal footing. Shortly before Christmas, Brussels and Bern had announced that they had reached an agreement in several areas – including food safety, electricity, health and disease control – following lengthy negotiations.
As a result, the European Commission has approved full association with Horizon Europe from 2025 and with the Euratom nuclear research program. “I welcome this very positive development, which in turn improves Europe’s resilience, prosperity, competitiveness and well-being,” said Research Commissioner Ekaterina Zaharievain a statemen.
The provisional agreement could expire again in 2028
A separate space agreement will regulate Switzerland’s participation in the European Space Agency (ESA). EU students will also pay the same tuition fees at Swiss universities as domestic students. Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, who led the talks with Bern, declared at a press conference that the association with Horizon Europe was a great success. “Switzerland and Swiss researchers can actively participate in the largest research and innovation program in the world,” he said.
However, there is a risk that the Swiss could reject the agreement in a referendum that has not yet been scheduled. However, this could take until 2028, which means that Switzerland’s participation is considered secure at least until the end of Horizon Europe. Horizon Europe will run in its current form until the end of 2027. Switzerland’s participation in the next FP10 research framework program will then depend on the outcome of the Swiss referendum. dm/tg
Europäische Kommission
Universitäten
Wissenschaft
Brussels: Man with knife overpowered at prime minister’s official residence
Aman armed with a knife has been arrested at the official residence of the Belgian head of government in Brussels. According to the Belgian news agency Belga, the man tried to enter the official residence. According to reports, he threatened the military police who were present.. The officers overpowered the man. No one was injured.
The man’s motives were initially unclear. The caretaker head of government Alexander De Croo was shocked by the incident, said his spokesman. “We would like to expressly thank the officers of the military police.” Together with the police, the situation is being closely monitored.
After the parliamentary elections in June, the formation of a government in Belgium continues. De Croo’s liberal Open VLD party from Flanders lost the vote by a clear margin. He and his cabinet are in office on a caretaker basis until a new government is formed. dpa
Belgien
Heads
Luuk van Middelaar and his think tank on geopolitics
Luuk van Middelaar is the Founding Director of the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics.
Three heads of state and government sealed the foundation. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and the then Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte came together in October 2022 when the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (BIG) think tank was founded. The three founders Luuk van Middelaar, Hans Kribbe and Sébastien Lumet now have the support of Germany, France and the Netherlands, and also of Belgium, Denmark and the Czech Republic.
What the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel achieved during the euro crisis, the think tank with the immodest acronym is set to achieve in future in matters of geopolitics: Pooling strategic expertise, creating space for debate, providing well-founded analyses for decision-makers. “History is in flux right now,” says co-founder van Middelaar. “And we don’t know where it’s going.”
Advisor to Herman Van Rompuy
Unlike many other intellectuals, the historian and philosopher van Middelaar, who teaches at Leiden University, knows the EU from the inside. As a speechwriter and advisor to the first EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy, he experienced the turbulent years from 2009 to 2014, including the euro crisis in the Justus Lipsius Council building. From this time in the Council, he is well connected with the Sherpas in Europe’s government headquarters. He estimates the number of people who are practically involved in geopolitics in Europe’s capitals at 200.
When Van Rompuy hired van Middelaar, he had just completed his PhD on the beginnings of the EU. His doctoral thesis was translated into more than ten languages and was published under the title “The Passage to Europe.” Two more books on Europe have followed since then. The fact that Macron is familiar with his work certainly didn’t hurt when it came to founding BIG.
Convention as a crash course in the EU
His first book brought van Middelaar to Brussels. In his master’s thesis, which was published under the title “Politicide,” he describes how skeptical French philosophers were of democracy from the 1930s onwards and how much they glossed over communism. Dutch Internal Market Commissioner Frits Bolkestein liked the book so much that he brought van Middelaar into the EU Commission as an intern in 2002 – and subsequently kept him on as a speechwriter.
On his first day at work, van Middelaar experienced how politics is made in Brussels. Because no one else in the Bolkestein cabinet was available, he was sent to the first meeting of the European Constitutional Convention. Under the leadership of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, the assembly was to draw up an EU constitution. As is well known, the project failed. Van Middelaar found the Convention a crash course in EU matters, experienced national ways of thinking and immersed himself in EU jargon for the first time.
A protected space for debates on EU strategy
However, the times in which the EU can be preoccupied with itself are over. In 2020, van Middelaar first thought about setting up a think tank on geopolitics in Brussels because he had identified a need. The EU has to assert itself in a multipolar world, and BIG wants to offer “a protected space for debates on EU strategy,” says van Middelaar.
Thinkers, doers and artists should be able to mingle in Brussels without having to fear that their ideas will be made public on the same day. The Union must face up to the world as it is. “Europe must adapt to the new era,” says van Middelaar. The Union must adopt a strategy; the era of free trade is over. “The standard answers from economics textbooks no longer work.” BIG wants to develop new answers. Silke Wettach
